Roy Morgan has an Indigenous Voice poll of 905 respondents conducted last Monday to Sunday showing a relatively modest lead for no of 50-45. The accompanying release relates that we will shortly see “full results of surveying over the last two weeks, including detailed state-by-state, gender, age and party support breakdowns”.
There’s a fair bit of this sort of thing around at the moment, notably a Resolve Strategic document running to 100 pages covering every imaginable detail of this week’s 4728 sample poll, barring a few redacted details that are being held back to provide material for Nine Newspapers reports. The difference between Resolve Strategic’s 56-44 to no and Newspoll’s 58-34 comes largely down to the 18-to-34 cohort, which is difficult to poll and accordingly tends to get upweighted. Resolve’s has it breaking 62-38 in favour of yes, while the Newspoll has it at 49% no, 46% yes and the rest uncommitted.
The main story from the poll is that it’s the first one to provide any indication of Indigenous support since early in the year, after going to particular effort to secure a sub-sample of 420 (the report stresses that this “will not adequately cover remote communities”). The result is a split of 59-41 in favour of yes, a good deal narrower than much-disputed figures of 80-20 from earlier in the year. Kevin Bonham knows something I don’t in relating that “there is another one of these coming from another pollster that is mid-high 60s but smaller sample”.
There is also some further detail in The Economist in the other day’s poll from British outfit Focaldata, emphasising an age gap that looks more like Resolve’s than Newspoll’s. The accompanying multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise that produced demographically related estimates for each House of Representatives seat was discussed the other day on Twitter by pollsters Kos Samaras and Shaun Ratliff, the former saying it “missed demographic nuances, including education levels and ethnic make-up of regional seats” (more recently arrived groups being stronger for yes), the latter saying at least double the 4000 sample would be needed for duly robust results. UPDATE: More from Focaldata here.
UPDATE (13/10): There is now also a result from YouGov that has no up three points from its poll last week to 56%, with yes steady at 38%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519. Roy Morgan has also expanded on the poll reported above as being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 905, with a field work period now extending to today (Thursday) and a sample up to 1419. It has no leading 51% to 44%, breaking down to 49% to 46% in New South Wales, 64% to 30% in Queensland, 54% to 44% in Western Australia, 51% to 39% in South Australia and 52% to 47% in Tasmania, with yes leading 54% to 42% in Victoria (with due regard to small sub-samples here, particularly in the smaller states).
Can we please reserve this thread for discussion of the referendum. The open thread for discussion of anything but Israel is here.
Some of the “youth” electorates have amongst the lowest pre-poll rates too, or at least well below average. I’m referring to Griffith, Brisbane, Moreton, Melbourne & Wright. I suggest an enthusiasm factor is in play unless younger people simply wait until the last minute.
Antony Green link :
https://antonygreen.com.au/the-voice-referendum-postal-and-pre-poll-voting-rates/
The implied odds from the voice betting are now at 84% No.
They have been hovering from around 75% implied probability for about a month or so to 84% now.
There’s an interesting theme in the resolve data that I wasn’t previously aware of.
The party alliance stat (not sure what to call it) is much more heavily skewed towards coalition voters 84% No, with ALP voters 33% No.
I would have thought ALP voters needed a higher No vote proportion to help make the overall 56 No/ 44 yes work
From today’s Niki Savva article in SMH:
He (Ken Wyatt) accepts Anthony Albanese would have no mandate to legislate a Voice but pledged he and fellow Yes warriors would not give up fighting for better ways to address Indigenous disadvantage.
To overcome the double majority is just not going to happen.
Assuming that WA and QLD are written off (the odds of either them voting “Yes” at this stage is less than 5%), it means all the other states have to vote “yes” and that is extremely doubtful.
Assuming each of 4 state is a 50% chance of voting “yes” (which is extremely high on the current polling), the chances are 1 in 16 that they all vote “Yes”.
Even then if QLD and WA vote “No” by 60% each, the combined “yes” vote needs to 54.5% in all the other states and territories in order to get an overall majority.
None of my normal bookmakers are offering odds on the vote, but if they were I would be taking $1.o5 at the moment.
PS. I have voted “YES” already. I just can’t see it getting up.
Yesterday I attended pre-poll in Canberra. One thing that stood out was the difference between YES and NO people handing out how to vote cards.
YES people were males and females of various ages.
NO people appeared to be all old men (my age!) dressed all in black, to match the background colour of their signage. There was a sinister feel about it, as if they had been instructed what to wear to convey the NO message.
“The difference between Resolve Strategic’s 56-44 to no and Newspoll’s 58-34 comes largely down to the 18-to-34 cohort, which is difficult to poll and accordingly tends to get upweighted. Resolve’s has it breaking 62-38 in favour of yes, while the Newspoll has it at 49% no, 46% yes and the rest uncommitted.”
I can’t believe the Newspoll breakdown at all – that suggests they’ve got their sampling or weighting wrong. Resolve “looks” right for 18-34. Time will tell.
@BS Fairman: Even a late comeback in states like Vic will I’m afraid founder on the majority of states requirement yeah. However, your probability assessment is not right because the chances of each state voting Yes are not independent events. If the mood has shifted enough for a state to vote Yes, it is likely that shift is replicated in the other eastern and southern states.
citizen: “NO people appeared to be all old men (my age!) dressed all in black”
Cookers are at a bit of a loose-end now that no-one attends their anti-vax sing-alongs.
citizen says:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 11:32 am
NO people appeared to be all old men (my age!) dressed all in black, to match the background colour of their signage. There was a sinister feel about it, as if they had been instructed what to wear to convey the NO message.
most of my No voter friends have jobs to attend to
Arky – I know they are not independent events. But if the four states are all close to 50%, they are still going to be basically a coin toss. As it is as a whole, they are all looking like they are less likely to a “Yes” than a “No”, so assuming they are a coin toss is being very optimistic.
Anecdotal observation. My brother and his partner voted early today, both had been undecided up until today when they were had to make up their mind
I asked them where they landed. My brother voted no because it was “dividing us”. My sister in law voted Yes because all the No people there were old white men and she doesn’t want them telling her what to do
Anecdotal sure but…. I am curious if the lack of diversity in no volunteers is going to have an impact
I reckon the ACT will vote Yes by 55% or more.
The NT is line ball.
The six states will vote No, with Tassie closest to 50-50.
National Yes vote below 40%
I sincerely hope I’m wrong.
The “old white men” might be retired with time to spare, and impervious to the criticism, shaming and ostracism that others (except old white women) would face. Being old, they are relatively less likely to face assault (which is constituted by being placed in fear of battery).
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
40m
#YouGov Voice to Parliament
Yes 38 (=)
No 56 (+3)
Undecided 6 (-3)
Designated as final poll, Oct 6-10
———————————————–
So that makes Morgan the outlier in recent polling.
My prediction is ACT would about 65%, NT is 55%, all states lost, Overall 42% Yes. Slight chance Tassie is positive however.
Result will be known at 7.11pm AEDT whilst voting is still happening WA and NT. The Vote comes in really quickly at referendums (65% was in by 7.30 in VIC and NSW in 1999).
I postal voted but drove past an early voting centre in the suburban “CBD” of my area, looked pretty busy.
I voted at the Australian embassy here in Rabat, Morocco yesterday. I have been pessimistic about the outcome since long before polling suggested that “yes” is doing badly.
However! (And this is entirely unscientific, just a gut reaction.)
When I was handed the small piece of paper on which to write “yes” or “no” with the very straightforward proposition printed in a particularly attractive typeface, I was struck by how difficult I think many fair-minded Australians will find it to write the word “no”.
As I say, this is based on nothing but my own instinct, but as a person convinced very early on that the proposal was too vague and open to a scare campaign, I would now not under-estimate the extent to which the actual bit of voting paper, its appearance, its simplicity and perhaps even a touch of “well, it’s going to fail anyway.. can’t hurt to vote ‘yes'” might contribute to a big surprise on Saturday.
I’m for the Saturday surprise too: far closer than polls predict is my punt.
My Yes campaigner heart says it wins everywhere bar QLD & WA.
My head says YES in Tas, in one of NSW/ VIC, and in both territories. Much closer than 1999.
@Rafiki
Perception is reality. Nobody sees whatever excuse you might have for the lack of diversity in the no campaign. What they see is a bunch of old white dudes a tin-foil-hat short of joining the flat earth convention handing out No HTVs. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a factor that sways some portion of undecideds
Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
#Morgan Voice to Parliament
Yes 44
No 51
Undecided 5
Designated final poll
This is an extension with some reinterviews of previous Oct 2-8 poll, now Oct 2-12, n=1419
Pre-prompting Yes 40 (+3) No 46 (=) und 14 (-3)
Voted in Darwin CBD this afternoon. 4 people there for Yes, nobody there for No. Have found it very hard to gage the mood up here, but I will go with a Yes win in the NT 54 46.
My prediction is the first counts make it look something like 54 NO – 46 YES nationally, but once prepolls and postals come in it settles at a final result of 57 NO – 43 YES. Harder to predict state-wise, could very well be NO in all states. I find YES getting anything more than TAS + VIC hard be believe based on the polling data we have. Territories both YES highly likely.
I’ll be casting an election day YES vote.
Haven’t posted for a very long time, but I have zero optimism about this.
Will be gladly voting Yes. Something as radical as actually listening to Indigenous people might actually help to improve their lot in our society.
But I fear that’s exactly why Australia will overwhelmingly vote No. The level of contempt that most non-Indigenous people have for our First People is disgusting.
Sky, good luck with that.
Wonder what the turnout will be? There are actually a sizeable proportion of people who don’t even know there is a referendum happening, and I suspect many who don’t know or care enough to show up and vote. Add to that an increased electoral roll (an increased electoral roll doesn’t guarantee the new electors will actually vote), and I suspect a turnout of about 80-85%.
I’m with you on that NicholasR. I’ve suspected the same. The question is who that favours? Unfortunately I think more Yes voters will stay at home than No.
I’d have loved a poll outside our prepoll in Wagga to do an exit.
We’re doing our own. We reckon we can pick the No’s easily by their head down, surly demeanour.
Those voting Yes walk out smiling and say happily SeeYa.
We know we’re likely wrong but wish someone could capture that!
We had lots of lots of smiles late this arvo but out over 70’s were only about 20 percent. They all came last Monday lined up 🙁
People have become accustomed to knowing the results of elections fairly quickly on election night, but that’s largely because of the way in which a swing can be discerned from early returns by comparing the result from a polling place with the result from there at the previous election. That isn’t possible for a referendum, so there’s a risk that early results may be biased, for example because smaller polling places from country areas may report their figures earlier than the bigger polling places in cities. Just something to be aware of. (But if the outcome is as clear cut as the polls are suggesting, that may still be apparent fairly early.)
The votes are much quicker to count in a referendum. Partly this is just because it is a binary choice. When counting the votes at an election checking the validity takes a little longer per vote and that adds up. Also there are just more piles to sort the votes into at an election.
Mr Green said that in 1999, 65% of the vote in NSW and Victoria was in within 90 minutes (and there was 2 ballots then too) but he didn’t expect as much to be in this time due to more early voting. But if 50% of the vote is in the big states (Vic and NSW) and NO is in the lead by a significant margin it will be able to be called as having failed.
I may have been a little hasty earlier with a 7.10 call but it won’t be long after that (before 8).
“Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
#Morgan Voice to Parliament
Yes 44
No 51
Undecided 5
Designated final poll
This is an extension with some reinterviews of previous Oct 2-8 poll, now Oct 2-12, n=1419”
This means that the Oct 9-12 part of the poll is more ‘No’ than the Oct 2-8 part of the poll, which by itself was Yes 45, No 50.
Not sure how many were interviewed in each period, but if equal numbers implies Oct 9-12 is Yes 43, No 52.
Kind of MoE stuff, so hard to say if it definitely means any recent momentum behind ‘Yes’ has stalled.
The “knows something I don’t” related to Focaldata who in their blog piece gave their Indigenous voter breakdown as about 70-30. I’ve seen the crosstabs and I got 69-31 but there was an overrepresentation of Torres Strait Islanders compared to the overall population so 66-34 might be a fairer estimate. Of course given the small sample size and the issues with sampling Indigenous voters one might take that as +/-, say, 20 or so.
All those marches and door knocking and “conversations”. And how about those TV adds. Thanks Johnny. Least they got their steps up.
Guardian article on some of the shadowy figures behind NO.
The novel “1984” was spot on regarding the names of some of these RW organisations (e.g. the firemen in 1984 set fire to books). These groups are mentioned in the Guardian article: Fair Australia, Christians for Equality, Australians for Unity.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/13/revealed-the-secretive-rightwing-firm-providing-clout-for-voice-no-campaign
As a volunteer scrutineers for Fair Australia, I watched last night a presentation for scrutineers organised by the NSW Liberals. The presenter reported that a great many volunteers had no prior experience working in politics. Whatever the age and sex demographics, this referendum might mark a needed rejuvenation in Liberal ground support in future elections.
Citizen
I think you should read the book (or at least not confuse two books ) when you use it as an analogy
Well, for my 2c, I’m going to put a number on it: polls will be found to have underestimated Yes support by about 3-4%
y 40 N60 95% CI +/-3%. That’s basically what the polling is telling us. I have no reason to disagree.
Try to help others if you can (Voice referendum is like that) but don’t go out your way to harm others.
A magistrate in Towoomba has ruled that a high profile man accused of rape can be identified – but he still cannot yet be named after his lawyers revealed they would seek a stay of the decision.
Magistrate Clare Kelly on Friday afternoon found the man should be named in a test of new legislation introduced last week.
But before she could make a formal order, the man’s barrister Andrew Hoare said the defendant intended to pursue a stay of the order.
Mr Hoare asked the magistrate to delay pronouncing her order until 4pm Monday to allow time for a stay application to be filed in the interim.
Financial Review Poll:
NO 57
YES 43
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/yes-vote-in-need-of-a-miracle-poll-shows-20231012-p5ebn7
Yes $5.00
No $1.13
I think yesterday it was around:
Yes $5.75
no $1.08
Bluebet
Yes $4.50
No $1.15 now
It aint over until the fat lady sings
Cripes, That’s a big move in just one hour.
How much did you put on?
The fine for not voting in the referendum is a massive $20. The reason it is so low was it was last set in 1984 when $20 was worth more.
If I Bluebet account, I would taking that money for “No”. That is suggesting that “Yes” has 13% chance of winning which is just too high. The odds of “yes” get more than 50% is probably about that but then there is the dreaded double majority which is means the odds are much lower.
To be honest putting money on No would be risk free at this stage. I suppose there is a miniscule chance of a polling miss to overturn the result due to the fact we don’t have recent track record for referendum polling.
So what is the average of all the recent polls? Is Yes going to get something between 40 and 45 percent of the vote nationally? Are there any states where Yes might get a majority?
Peter Brent has an article about what parts of the count that he thinks is of interest on the night.
https://insidestory.org.au/weight-of-history/
and also a pointed historical comment about the ‘value’ of a No result to Dutton.
“Amid the celebrations, Peter Dutton might even believe this will save his leadership. Perhaps he should have a word with his mentor John Howard, who likely reckoned the same in September 1988 but was out of a job eight months later.”
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/10/12/why-aussies-must-reject-the-voice-to-parliament/
Anyone who votes No is a bum.
I talked to an owner of a Vietnamese restaurant near me this evening.
Discussing the vote he told us that he had been told that Aboriginal people were “lazy” people who simply sought federal government support. It seems he had already voted No.
Where did this come from? He would not say, but he indicated it was Vietnamese social media.
I despair for our ability to have a logical discussion on the issue, because so little enforcement exists.