Click here for full display of Indigenous Voice referendum results.
Sunday morning
Below is the output of a linear regression model that uses four demographic variables (together with controls for state-level effects) to explain 87% of the variation in the yes vote by electorate, limited for technical reasons to the 141 seats of the five mainland seats.
The choice of the four demographic variables was constrained by the need to pick ones that didn’t correlate over-much with each other. This tends to mean they could have been replaced with other variables they correlated with and still produced a robust result. To go through the four in turn:
Finished School, i.e. completed year 12. As you would expect, yes did very considerably better in seats with high educational attainment and occupational categories related with it. Such seats also tend to have high numbers of people in their twenties and thirties and renters, and few labourers.
Secular. Seats with a lot of people who identified as having no religious affiliation were significantly stronger for yes. This is a favourite variable of mine, because it reliably associates with support for post-materialist causes including a republic, same-sex marriage and the Indigenous Voice, and also with voting for Greens and teals.
Owned. Yes did worse in seats where a lot of people owned their homes, which in turn correlates strongly with the 60-plus age cohort, a measure of which might well have taken its place in the model.
Age0to19. Seats with a lot of children — or, looked at another way, mortgage-paying families — tended to do poorly for yes.
The four “state” variables tell us only that yes did better in the two bigger states than the three smaller ones, which we can tell more efficiently by looking at the results. In particular, they tell us that it did so over and above what might be expected from demographic variation between the states on the variables described above.
Saturday night
1.45am. Results updating again now, presumably with little if anything further to be added for the evening.
12.50am. There are still a few results outstanding in WA, but I’m going to have to turn off my results updating for a couple of hours. If you’ve found it in any way entertaining or useful — and it’s still the only place where you can find the results at booth level — please consider helping out with a contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.
11.55pm. Most of the Mobile Remote Team results are in from Lingiari now, and the yes vote among them has come back to 71.6%.
10.39pm. My live results stalled for a bit there because I was hacking around trying to get Remote Mobile Team results to appear in Lingiari, which they are now doing. These are of interest because they serve largely, though not exclusively, remote Indigenous communities. With six out of 22 reporting, the results are 2908 yes (79.7%) and 742 no (20.3%).
9.34pm. Looking increasingly certain now that Victoria will also be a no. Early numbers in Western Australia confirm what you would expect there too.
8.35pm. The prospect of a yes majority in Victoria has been drifting away, with my projection of 51.7% no getting steadily closer to the raw result of 52.2%. These numbers are probably flattering yes, because postal votes in particularly are likely to be very conservative.
8.07pm. First numbers from Northern Territory are about 70-30 to no, but this could be a bit of a rollercoaster due to the peculiarity of heavily indigenous remote mobile booths — no insight I can offer on when those might report.
7.58pm. Malarndirri McCarthy on the ABC going through results from heavily indigenous booths in Queensland, which are as high as 75%. You can see the relevant booths on my pages for Leichhardt and Herbert — click activate at the bottom of the links to see the map display, and the ones with green (i.e. yes) numbers are pretty much the ones McCarthy was going through.
7.55pm. If the potential for voting to happen after the result is confirmed be deemed an issue, WA is getting a bad case of it, thanks to daylight saving and decisive results on the eastern seaboard.
7.53pm. My system has come through with the formality of calling Queensland for no, joining New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the national result. The ACT is called for yes, and I have a 68% probability for no in Victoria. Nothing yet from the Northern Territory, where polls closed 23 minutes ago, or Western Australia where they do not close for over an hour.
7.31pm. My system has also been calling the national vote for no for some time, and clearly won’t be long in calling Queensland for no. Victoria remains very close, with yes having consistently been projected to be a shade below 50%.
7.24pm. Got that out a matter of seconds before Antony Green said the same.
7.23pm. My system is calling South Australia for no.
7.18pm. First results emerging from Queensland, inevitably going very heavily to no from small rural booths.
7.17pm. Behind Antony Green’s eight-ball here, but my system is now calling NSW for no.
7.07pm. I’m projecting a tight result in Victoria — raw yes vote is 47.5%, but my adjustment to account for where the votes are from gets it to 49.2%.
7.03pm. ABC calling New South Wales for no, though my system isn’t quite there yet.
6.59pm. And for what very little it’s worth, my system is calling the ACT for yes.
6.57pm. My system is calling Tasmania for no, and so apparently is Antony Green’s.
6.52pm. Among many other dubious things, the no campaign succeeded in propagating several news reports to the effect that teal seats were going to do badly for yes. But so far, yes ranges from 58% in Mackellar to 73% in Kooyong.
6.48pm. I’m calculating probabilities in a way I’m not confident enough about to include in the results pages, but they’re getting very close to calling Tasmania for no and ACT for yes — although Tasmania could potentially swing back as more Hobart booths report.
6.45pm. First booth in from South Australia — Darke Peake in Grey — records 55 votes for no and three for yes.
6.40pm. If you’re finding the results feature of any use or interest, you may perhaps care to make a contribution through the “become a supporter” buttons you’ll find at the top of this page or on the results page itself.
6.38pm. My projection for yes has improved in Victoria, from around 43% to 46.6%. But thumping no leads elsewhere.
6.27pm. So far I’m projecting very similar results in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania — the three states where voting has closed — ranging from 56.6% to 57.7%. Yes well ahead from a tiny count in the ACT.
6.21pm. With only yes and no to count, rather than multiple candidates never mind two-candidate preferred, the count is clearly going to progress very quickly. So far, there are seven booths with yes majorities and 44 with no.
6.20pm. The very earliest results are presumably from the most rural of areas, whereas my projection works off seat results. So if the booth results so far are conservative even by the standards of the seats they are in, as I suspect to be the case, the early projections should be unflattering for yes.
6.15pm. Small booths in from Farrer and Parkes in NSW and Wannon in Victoria, and my results seem to be working.
6pm. Polls have closed in eastern states with daylight saving. My results feature consists of a front page summarising results at national, state/territory and seat level, and results pages at House of Representatives seat level which include booth results in both table and map form (for the latter, click the activate button at the bottom of the relevant page). The seat results pages can be accessed from the drop-down menu or the “results by electorate” section at the bottom end of the main page.
The “projected” results for the national and state/territory votes make use of the seat-level estimates from Focaldata’s multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise as a baseline for measuring such results as are reported. However much they differ from Focaldata’s estimates of the relevant seats is projected on to Focaldata’s aggregated estimates. Doubtless this will be noisier than the booth-matched swings methods that can be applied at elections, but it should at least go some way towards correcting for the peculiarities of the early numbers.
Rex the Poor, Innocent Victim:
You’re getting attacked because your Paul Keating fanfic is absolute fucking nonsense that reads as though its designed specifically to bait people having a bad night. If your wondering why people sometimes accuse you of being a troll acting in bad faith (sadly, I’ve been here long enough to know that you are in fact being sincere, dog help you), it’s because of braindead commentary like “lAbOr CaNcElLeD pAuL kEaTiNg!1!”
jt1983 says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:14 pm
Rex, Keating has about as much impact on voters as you do here.
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Ouch! 🙂
Queensland reactionary as fuck, water wet, etc.
That said, anyone getting themselves excited about blowback on Dutton when Yes lost the overall Labor-seat vote is absolutely kidding themselves. Hell, Yes even went down in Linda Burney’s seat, and not terribly closely.
Making hardened progressives hate Dutton even more than they did before does not win elections.
If lashing out at me with abuse makes you all feel a bit better then go your hardest. I can take it.
michael: “QLD did never like the voice judging from the first figure.”
It’s from Maranoa, Littleproud’s electorate.
Rebecca: “making it just about him”
YOU are the person making it just about him. You know who you’re not making it about? Dutton; The person hate signalling to racists. There’s a reason for that.
Kingsford-Smith with a strong Yes vote. Matt Thistlewaite was a very active campaigner for the Yes campaign, even in electorates that aren’t his.
Don’t worry Rex, your party’s MPs lack of support for the Voice will be examined in the coming weeks and months.
Asha – I still dunno why you think he’s sincere, but that’s your lookout. The reason it’s bullshit said in bad faith that reads as though its designed specifically to bait people having a bad night is because that’s what it is. That’s always what it is from him.
But compare with the Fed Election and the booth is a stronger no than stronger lib
Keating is more interested in ensuring the state government upholds his Barangaroo vision than anything else.
It’s just ridiculous to imagine that an old white man would sweep into a public debate that was about Aboriginal people and sprinkle magic pixie dust everywhere that would make people slow blink and change their vote.
Integrity isn’t a green. He uses the greens to attack the ALP. Integrity, from what I can gather, is a Turnbull liberal, and always has been.
I suppose there’s one benefit to seat-wide polling of the voice referendum; We now get to definitively identify the most racist electorates in Australia.
The real winner on the night is BillBo.
.
His booth by booth numbers are excellent (Hint; need to activate the electorate by clicking on it a few times)
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2023ref/Results/
Pi: I don’t see a lot of point in feigning shock at the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party being for Leopards Eating People’s Faces. They told you from the get-go.
I know there’s a lot of people tonight who are hoping that there’ll be blowback on Dutton for all his racist antics, but with this outcome he’s politically stronger than he was before the referendum and all the lefty rage doesn’t change that.
Think it’s pretty clear there’s no way Yes can come back from here, though I suppose there’s some small comfort to be taken from the fact currently it doesn’t seem like the margin will be too extreme.
SA is No.
So that’s it. The No vote wins.
Pi says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:22 pm
Integrity isn’t a green. He uses the greens to attack the ALP. Integrity, from what I can gather, is a Turnbull liberal, and always has been.
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It isn’t about who people are for on here. It is who they are against. For some, the hate is real 😉
Antony has called it.
Sad day for Australia.
Rebecca: “I don’t see a lot of point”
The point is you only EVER attack the ALP. Words on Dutton hate signalling to racists? Silence.
I said Antony Green would call it before SBS’s coverage started at 7.30 AEDT.
Lidia Thorpe is delusional. No-one in power is going to give a flying fuck about Aboriginal issues after this referendum has gone down in flames. It’s not even close. It’s going to be a total loss in every state and the national vote.
“We need to be like South Africa”.. Dutton has campaigned about South Africa being run by evil black people, why does Thorpe think anyone in the LNP is going to care?
The only people who will ever support Thorpe are rich old boomers in the Teal seats who are already financially secure and some Aboriginal people. There will never be a treaty now. It is political poison for Labor, who will see a Treaty as having massive wedge politics potential for Dutton & future LNP leaders.
Antony calls it. Referendum defeated.
S. Simpson: The Yes vote appears to be ahead in the Green-held seats and Labor seats in which the Greens perform strongly, while it is losing overall in Labor-held seats.
I don’t think that’s actually terribly meaningful, but it does obviously put paid to the other angle at which some Labor stans were hoping the referendum outcome would be at least be chance to get one up on their enemies. The Greens carried their voters, and couldn’t be expected to carry people who hate them.
What a bunch of racists!
Very sad indeed
Dutton’s arrogance and hubris will be OFF THE CHARTS heading into the next federal election. A NO vote tonight followed by an L/NP Queensland state victory next year. This is a good thing for Labor as Dutton has little self awareness.
Pi
You could be called a Turnbull Liberal and that’s not putdown.
Confessions:
No, no, don’t you see, it’s all those dastardly partisans who will immediately change their mind upon being told to by a respected party elder like the good sheep that they are… yet simultaneously are independent enough that they cannot be turned by months and months of advocacy by current Labor PM and hundreds of other politicians from their party.
Rebecca: dribble dribble.
See what I mean? Didn’t even mention the LNP once. The people that have been telegraphing lies and misinformation for months? Not worth a mention. Apparently, we need to look closer at the ALP.
Rebecca says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:23 pm
I know there’s a lot of people tonight who are hoping that there’ll be blowback on Dutton for all his racist antics, but with this outcome he’s politically stronger than he was before the referendum and all the lefty rage doesn’t change that.
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Depends what you mean by “politically stronger”. Yes, if you are including only socially conservative Liberals and Nationals. Much less likely, if you are including voters in blue ribbon Liberal urban seats lost to teals, Labor and the Greens. “No” voters won’t reward him and “yes” voters will never forgive him.
Pi: “Dutton is vile” could be said about every aspect of his entire, career-long contribution to public discourse. Preaching to the converted about the bloody obvious always struck me as a bit masturbatory.
“I suppose there’s one benefit to seat-wide polling of the voice referendum; We now get to definitively identify the most racist electorates in Australia.”
It seems the Anglo seats in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney are least racist, whilst the multicultural seats out west are the MOST racist
If we go by your definition
Good point Rebecca. I don’t think for a second that the Greens position on the Voice would have changed the result. However it does show that for left of centre voters looking for an alternative to Labor that the Greens are to be treated with caution.
The Banana Republic @ #119 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 7:25 pm
+1
Confessions says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:21 pm
Keating is more interested in ensuring the state government upholds his Barangaroo vision than anything else.
It’s just ridiculous to imagine that an old white man would sweep into a public debate that was about Aboriginal people and sprinkle magic pixie dust everywhere that would make people slow blink and change their vote.
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Murdoch just entered the room 🙂
S. Simpson: I’m not ready for the likely reality of a state LNP here in Queensland . Hopefully QLD Labor turns it around at the last minute like they’ve done the last 2 times. Maybe third times a charm for the LNP…
TPOF: No won the overall Labor-seat vote. How is that not an electoral positive for Dutton?
Dutton could give a damn if he doesn’t unseat Allegra Spender but has a stronger hand in western Sydney marginals.
Poor Fella My Country. I only followed the campaign briefly but the voice of division and distrust won the day.
I don’t post much anymore as I’ve been far too busy up here and Thailand politics has been crazy.
To all my fellow Bludgers especially the Sydney crowd a big hello.
One thing in the back of my mind is that a collective guilt will hang over Australia for a long time following this. A guilt that I hope voters take out with a vengeance on the Tory Party at the next election. Stay well one and all.
Piss off, Pi. You’re not helping.
Waiting for Albo’s speech.
Hope it’s a good one.
Hello must’ve been working on it for weeks given we all knew this is where we’d end up.
Dan Borcher was struggling to hold it together. I know exactly how he feels.
Yep, the unhinging commences at 7pm eastern time. Twitter was already bad this morning – I imagine it’s unreadable now.
Still almost two hours until polls close here – beautiful sunny afternoon, with a sea breeze that just kicked in. Highgate Primary (the most left-wing booth in the most left-wing seat in WA – Libs came a distant third here last year) was extremely quiet at 2pm when I voted – no democracy sausages, not even any evidence of there having been any. One bored HTV person each for Yes and No, the line was about three people (it was out the door last time), I was in and out in 5 min.
Rather odd moment: the AEC guy at the door kept on asking people if they were in the “City of Perth”. True, there is a council election going on, but that’s (a) a completely different thing, (b) next week, (c) a postal vote and (d) about 1 km south (we’re in the People’s Republic of Vincent). I actually corrected him – Division of Perth. Weird.
sprocket_ “The real winner on the night is BillBo.
His booth by booth numbers are excellent (Hint; need to activate the electorate by clicking on it a few times)”
+1 William’s site is much better than the official AEC site. Well done sir!
Asha: “Piss off, Pi. You’re not helping.”
Jog on Asha, I don’t give a shit what commentary you have on me. That should have been plain by now.
Mexb: “You could be called a Turnbull Liberal and that’s not putdown.”
No-one losing twists me into a caricature of a person. The main problem with Turnbull was who he shared his allegiances with, and the part of his soul that he sold to get those allegiances.
Upnorth: “One thing in the back of my mind is that a collective guilt will hang over Australia for a long time following this. A guilt that I hope voters take out with a vengeance on the Tory Party at the next election. ”
I’m not the forgiving sort about this type of thing. I won’t forget, and I won’t let people forget.
Upnorth: “Stay well one and all.”
You too dude.
100%
But I think it really goes to the difficulty of selling something that will both fix a bunch of problems and also not actually change anything.
The NO propaganda is hard to counter because it contains an element of truth: you actually cannot address aboriginal disadvantage without some type of redistributive justice. That’s what the Voice would be asking for. And to counter that claim is to say that the Voice is essentially decorative.
“ sprocket_ “The real winner on the night is BillBo.”
Would be food to see this reflected in a flood of donations
Hi UpNorth! Upsetting night but nice to see you pop in.
Poor Cameron: “It seems the Anglo seats in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney are least racist, whilst the multicultural seats out west are the MOST racist
If we go by your definition”
As a general rule, the Yes vote is lowest in the electorates in which the Indigenous populations are most visible and highest in those where they are the least visible.
Tip: Price will be shoved back in the corner and we probably won’t hear from her again. Mainstream white institutions are all about holding Aboriginal people up while it suits them, but once they’ve served their purpose are quick to drop them like a hot potato.
Rebecca says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:30 pm
TPOF: No won the overall Labor-seat vote. How is that not an electoral positive for Dutton?
Dutton could give a damn if he doesn’t unseat Allegra Spender but has a stronger hand in western Sydney marginals.
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Because most “no” voters don’t give a shit about the issues. Most of them – the ones targeted with the slogan “if you don’t know, vote no” will go on with their lives and not think about the issue again. They will not blame Labor for the loss or reward Dutton for the win. At the next election they will vote for the party that they think best represents their interests, regardless of that party’s view of indigenous affairs.