Click here for full display of Indigenous Voice referendum results.
Sunday morning
Below is the output of a linear regression model that uses four demographic variables (together with controls for state-level effects) to explain 87% of the variation in the yes vote by electorate, limited for technical reasons to the 141 seats of the five mainland seats.
The choice of the four demographic variables was constrained by the need to pick ones that didn’t correlate over-much with each other. This tends to mean they could have been replaced with other variables they correlated with and still produced a robust result. To go through the four in turn:
Finished School, i.e. completed year 12. As you would expect, yes did very considerably better in seats with high educational attainment and occupational categories related with it. Such seats also tend to have high numbers of people in their twenties and thirties and renters, and few labourers.
Secular. Seats with a lot of people who identified as having no religious affiliation were significantly stronger for yes. This is a favourite variable of mine, because it reliably associates with support for post-materialist causes including a republic, same-sex marriage and the Indigenous Voice, and also with voting for Greens and teals.
Owned. Yes did worse in seats where a lot of people owned their homes, which in turn correlates strongly with the 60-plus age cohort, a measure of which might well have taken its place in the model.
Age0to19. Seats with a lot of children — or, looked at another way, mortgage-paying families — tended to do poorly for yes.
The four “state” variables tell us only that yes did better in the two bigger states than the three smaller ones, which we can tell more efficiently by looking at the results. In particular, they tell us that it did so over and above what might be expected from demographic variation between the states on the variables described above.
Saturday night
1.45am. Results updating again now, presumably with little if anything further to be added for the evening.
12.50am. There are still a few results outstanding in WA, but I’m going to have to turn off my results updating for a couple of hours. If you’ve found it in any way entertaining or useful — and it’s still the only place where you can find the results at booth level — please consider helping out with a contribution through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the site.
11.55pm. Most of the Mobile Remote Team results are in from Lingiari now, and the yes vote among them has come back to 71.6%.
10.39pm. My live results stalled for a bit there because I was hacking around trying to get Remote Mobile Team results to appear in Lingiari, which they are now doing. These are of interest because they serve largely, though not exclusively, remote Indigenous communities. With six out of 22 reporting, the results are 2908 yes (79.7%) and 742 no (20.3%).
9.34pm. Looking increasingly certain now that Victoria will also be a no. Early numbers in Western Australia confirm what you would expect there too.
8.35pm. The prospect of a yes majority in Victoria has been drifting away, with my projection of 51.7% no getting steadily closer to the raw result of 52.2%. These numbers are probably flattering yes, because postal votes in particularly are likely to be very conservative.
8.07pm. First numbers from Northern Territory are about 70-30 to no, but this could be a bit of a rollercoaster due to the peculiarity of heavily indigenous remote mobile booths — no insight I can offer on when those might report.
7.58pm. Malarndirri McCarthy on the ABC going through results from heavily indigenous booths in Queensland, which are as high as 75%. You can see the relevant booths on my pages for Leichhardt and Herbert — click activate at the bottom of the links to see the map display, and the ones with green (i.e. yes) numbers are pretty much the ones McCarthy was going through.
7.55pm. If the potential for voting to happen after the result is confirmed be deemed an issue, WA is getting a bad case of it, thanks to daylight saving and decisive results on the eastern seaboard.
7.53pm. My system has come through with the formality of calling Queensland for no, joining New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the national result. The ACT is called for yes, and I have a 68% probability for no in Victoria. Nothing yet from the Northern Territory, where polls closed 23 minutes ago, or Western Australia where they do not close for over an hour.
7.31pm. My system has also been calling the national vote for no for some time, and clearly won’t be long in calling Queensland for no. Victoria remains very close, with yes having consistently been projected to be a shade below 50%.
7.24pm. Got that out a matter of seconds before Antony Green said the same.
7.23pm. My system is calling South Australia for no.
7.18pm. First results emerging from Queensland, inevitably going very heavily to no from small rural booths.
7.17pm. Behind Antony Green’s eight-ball here, but my system is now calling NSW for no.
7.07pm. I’m projecting a tight result in Victoria — raw yes vote is 47.5%, but my adjustment to account for where the votes are from gets it to 49.2%.
7.03pm. ABC calling New South Wales for no, though my system isn’t quite there yet.
6.59pm. And for what very little it’s worth, my system is calling the ACT for yes.
6.57pm. My system is calling Tasmania for no, and so apparently is Antony Green’s.
6.52pm. Among many other dubious things, the no campaign succeeded in propagating several news reports to the effect that teal seats were going to do badly for yes. But so far, yes ranges from 58% in Mackellar to 73% in Kooyong.
6.48pm. I’m calculating probabilities in a way I’m not confident enough about to include in the results pages, but they’re getting very close to calling Tasmania for no and ACT for yes — although Tasmania could potentially swing back as more Hobart booths report.
6.45pm. First booth in from South Australia — Darke Peake in Grey — records 55 votes for no and three for yes.
6.40pm. If you’re finding the results feature of any use or interest, you may perhaps care to make a contribution through the “become a supporter” buttons you’ll find at the top of this page or on the results page itself.
6.38pm. My projection for yes has improved in Victoria, from around 43% to 46.6%. But thumping no leads elsewhere.
6.27pm. So far I’m projecting very similar results in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania — the three states where voting has closed — ranging from 56.6% to 57.7%. Yes well ahead from a tiny count in the ACT.
6.21pm. With only yes and no to count, rather than multiple candidates never mind two-candidate preferred, the count is clearly going to progress very quickly. So far, there are seven booths with yes majorities and 44 with no.
6.20pm. The very earliest results are presumably from the most rural of areas, whereas my projection works off seat results. So if the booth results so far are conservative even by the standards of the seats they are in, as I suspect to be the case, the early projections should be unflattering for yes.
6.15pm. Small booths in from Farrer and Parkes in NSW and Wannon in Victoria, and my results seem to be working.
6pm. Polls have closed in eastern states with daylight saving. My results feature consists of a front page summarising results at national, state/territory and seat level, and results pages at House of Representatives seat level which include booth results in both table and map form (for the latter, click the activate button at the bottom of the relevant page). The seat results pages can be accessed from the drop-down menu or the “results by electorate” section at the bottom end of the main page.
The “projected” results for the national and state/territory votes make use of the seat-level estimates from Focaldata’s multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise as a baseline for measuring such results as are reported. However much they differ from Focaldata’s estimates of the relevant seats is projected on to Focaldata’s aggregated estimates. Doubtless this will be noisier than the booth-matched swings methods that can be applied at elections, but it should at least go some way towards correcting for the peculiarities of the early numbers.
Watermelon: Absolutely. I think not picking one and sticking with it was incredibly damaging – the Yes campaign was trying to tell progressives and indigenous people that it would be impactful and conservatives that it wouldn’t be, and the resulting messaging was just incoherent and confusing.
Poor Cameron
It seems the Anglo seats in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney are least racist, whilst the multicultural seats out west are the MOST racist
If we go by your definition
Actually, the Country Party seats are the most racist. Western Sydney are as much influenced by lower education, working class and prone to influence by misinformation through MSM and social media.
Some learnings unfolding
Looks like seats with higher levels of education (and therefore information) voted YES.
Hey Upnorth! Good to see you again.
Yes a very sad day for the country.
Fess, didn’t you read the SmearStralian promoting Price as a future PM?
The Yes vote is losing every single seat in Western Sydney – that’s one of the big stories of tonight!
sprocket:
She’ll be forgotten by the end of next week.
Lessons sprocket …. Lessons!
We’re a bunch of racist Knuts.
We’re a bunch of racist Knuts.
We’re a bunch of racist Knuts.
All day long.
repeat 6 times.
Fade.
Turn out the lights.
meher baba says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:34 pm
As a general rule, the Yes vote is lowest in the electorates in which the Indigenous populations are most visible and highest in those where they are the least visible.
________________________________________
I’ve been thinking today about how the most racist states in the USA are those with the largest African-American populations historically and, usually, at present – the old confederate states. Those racists think they know their targets better, but the reality is that poor white trash simply need someone to look down on so they are not the lowest of the low.
edited to add that I don’t think that this is the case in the high migrant areas of Sydney and Melbourne; rather they are too focussed on getting their own foothold in Australia to look at issues outside their immediate concerns. Also, they will have paid the least attention to indigenous issues in Australia.
Well, this is depressing. Expected, but depressing.
What’s done is done, however. The best thing the government can do now going forward is ensure that they are actually listening to indigenous voices going forward and doing what they can to close the gap and ensure better outcomes for their communities. And hopefully also make Dutton wear his nasty, cynical opportunism like a crown of thorns.
Actually, the Country Party seats are the most racist. Western Sydney are as much influenced by lower education, working class and prone to influence by misinformation through MSM and social media.
If the country seats are most racist that also makes the multicultural seats racist, don’t try and give them a free pass
I work with black guys (non aboriginal) who all voted No, they said it was divisive
The 2nd is Senator Liddle.
All that remains to be seen is which State wins The Most Rascist State Award.
If Dutton thinks he can “ride” the NO vote up until the next election he will be mistaken. Most people won’t give a hoot about the referendum come 2025 and it will expose Dutton as bereft of ideas if he tries.
Victoria is turning on a much better result for Yes than the opinion polls suggested. Of course, early votes and postal votes might alter that a bit.
Tasmania has been immensely disappointing. As Antony highlighted, the lower income areas of the state have been immensely anti-Voice.
JenAuthor
Ever the pedant :). Duly admonished
Sad to see what is happening nationally and here in South Australia.
Proud that my electorate (Boothby) is voting yes (as did the Adelaide electorate).
Shellbell: “Would be food to see this reflected in a flood of donations”
Tipped in a few shekels Monsieur Bowe. You really are the bright light in this.
Victoria looking like it could potentially be a Yes win. That’s, er, that’s something, I guess.
Outer Western Sydney has a sizeable and very visible Indigenous population.
Hey Griff and Confessions! Hope your both well. Maintain the rage folks! Stormy night here in Bangkok. Matching my mood at the moment.
What he said:
guardian live
It’s now clear that the current Liberal Party will never win back the Teal seats. A key question moving forward is whether the Teals would back a Dutton minority government.
Howdy Upnorth – you live! Take care. Bad air down here, very bad air.
“First true gloat is from Lydia, whose position was probably supported by 1%.”
Yah, Thorpe is slightly unhinged scum with a very limited intellectual capacity. And, virtually any of the Liberals commenting soon are simply looking for their own advantage. The Libs just dont do truth and thats been obvious for a while.
Expecting the Gloat from the countries RWingers to ramp u over the next week or so, but hey, we are where we are and move forward from there.
@Rebecca: “Dutton could give a damn if he doesn’t unseat Allegra Spender but has a stronger hand in western Sydney marginals.”
And the polling that he has that are…
Umm…
The dude is on the “popular” side of the referendum while mortgage pain is going through the roof and his numbers remain shit.
Asha @ #170 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 7:11 pm
The fart-sniffing would be unbearable
ACT a massive Yes!
See what education and intelligence can do to the thought process?
S.Simpson: “A key question moving forward is whether the Teals would back a Dutton minority government.”
Conservatives don’t do bipartisanship nor negotiation.
Haha Sprocket — sorry, but that word is my pet hate!
If it has taken you until tonight to realise that this Referendum was headed towards defeat, you probably should have paid more attention to the polls.
Dutton is in a stronger position. He is not going to be under threat from the party room for the rest of the term. The Liberal party will be able to sell this to their supporter base as a winner and fund raise off the back of it – fundraising in opposition is really hard if you don’t look like winning anything.
As for the Liberal party losing votes in the Teal seats, a chunk of Teal primary voters are going to come home at some stage because they need the tax cuts etc. The other part was probably already gone anyway. It was unlikely that many of them would have been shown the door at the next election anyway.
I had a look at all the teal seats reporting so far. Mackellar is 54.5% yes, all the others are quite strongly yes, in the low to mid 60’s range. Of course the ALP holds a lot of seats which have voted no, but I’d argue that blue-collar suburban seats that are safe ALP/ strong No will not be where the next federal election will be decided, it will be more the marginal ALP/LNP seats like Bennelong & Reid (which are about 50/50 Yes/No), and the former LNP but now teal seats (all Yes).
So the politics of the decisive national win by No are not just a problem for Albanese, they are a problem for Dutton too.
Upnorth:
Will you be visiting Australia before the end of the year? I think C@t is planning our next NSW Bludger catch up.
Among politicians the two great losers of the campaign are Thorpe and Mundine, both irrelevancies now who still think they won something.
I am in a Western Sydney seat. Interesting to see my booth vote 65% No.
Judging by my fellow voters in the line and their responses to AUC officials, recent Australian immigration and citizenship does not provide one with a sympathetic view of the plight of our First Nations peoples. Considering socioeconomic status and education levels, lateral violence is real. The stuff aspirational politics is made of.
Honestly a bit surprised at how well the Yes vote is exceeding the polls in Melbourne – Yes has smashed it in in my seat and all of the surrounding seats. It’s sad that it’s about all the good news tonight.
I wonder if continually insulting 57% of the population by multiple posters on here makes them feel better about the result.
Or about their own self-righteousness / incompetence, perhaps?
Seems to confirm the argument about the Voice putting some citizens above others (which, FWIW, I didn’t agree with – but it’s certainly happening on PB with regular contributors insulting so called ‘poor white’, ‘white trash’ etc ‘less educated’ as if they were either racist or too thick to make an informed decision – “how dare they disagree with my world view?”).
No mea culpa from Yes campaigners either.
SO-O-O patronising but it won’t change one jot.
I am, of course, not including genuinely sad yes supporters who aren’t spraying this kind of stuff around on here.
BT you are literally chearing for the racists and calling that a victory in a question of which you have no skin in the game.
S. Simpson:
IMO, the only people who will even remember the referendum by the time of the next election will be Yes supporters disappointed that it lost and some of the truly hardened No supporters. The former of whom were never going to vote for Dutton and the latter were never not going to. Everyone else will be thinking about cost of living, housing, healthcare, the environment, and all the other things that people usually focus on in election campaigns.
I expect Dutton’s “victory” tonight to be of as much benefit to his future Prime Ministerial ambitions as Evatt’s victory in the 1951 referendum. Which isn’t to say he can’t win the next election – there’s still roughly a year and a half to go, and anything could happen in that time – but if he does, it won’t be because of the referendum result.
Yah, Thorpe is slightly unhinged scum with a very limited intellectual capacity.
a perfect example of how an indigenous “voice” gets received when it says something that a white moderate doesn’t want to hear
imacca – I do wonder what Thorpe’s reception at the next “Invasion day rally” will be like.
Meher
Of interest, is that the Dharruk elders in the Blacktown area were influenced by the Blak Greens messaging – that the Voice was half arsed, with no Treaty first.
A key meta issue, IMHO, was the obvious ‘division’ in the Indigenous movement – not only Price and Mundine on posters at the booths, but Lidia Thorpe and co pushing the ‘not good enough’ line. Easily and effectively exploited.
Watermelon: ““voice””
The reason why you put it in quotes, is because you know it doesn’t represent the Constitutional Convention that created the Uluru Statement asking for the voice. The thing Thorpe walked out on.
Just another sad attempt to kick the great bulk of indigneous people for political gain. Very dutton-esque.
ItzaDream says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Howdy Upnorth – you live! Take care. Bad air down here, very bad air.
中华人民共和国
Hey Itza! Yeah I’m alive. Been keeping a low profile. Won’t get back to Oz this year but a C@t organized get together would be tops. Reckon we can book in May 2024 again? Make it an annual knees up! It was a day/night of wonderful yarns.
One thing’s for sure, Dutton and the coalition will be looking at these metro Yes/No voting maps and plotting their future electoral strategy.
Keep wondering BT says. The answer seems to be deep seated racism and a lack of education.
sprocket_: I hoped there would be some sort of process to try to resolve differences/provide information about the Voice in indigenous communities before it was actually put to a referendum. The overconfidence about how much support there was (I suspect the 60% in the later-campaign polls was a lot more realistic than the 80% from that very early one) and assumption that indigenous support was a given just gave the No campaign another wedge.
Griff, I work in a fairly diverse workplace, and the Anglos were mostly voting Yes, whilst the coloured/others were all voting No.
If people want to call Australia a racist country after this, thats fine, they can, but don’t portray that racism as being someone with blonde hair/blue eyes
Where to from here? I guess our National Leaders (Albo, Dutton, Bandt ) will speak on this after WA comes in somewhere on this after 9pm on the East Coast?