I suspect we’re entering something of an opinion poll drought, with media polling budgets having been exhausted in the last stages of the referendum campaign. On that subject, my live results feature continue to update on a daily-or-so basis. There is also Simon Jackman’s, which includes an impressive feature allowing the user to observe relationships between booth results and various electoral and demographic measures.
Other news:
• The federal redistribution processes for Western Australia and Victoria, which will respectively increase the state’s representation from 15 seats to 16 and reduce it from 39 to 38, moved along a notch this week. Submission deadlines for suggestions have been set at November 17 for Western Australia and November 24 for Victoria; supporting information including the enrolment data that will set the quotas for enrolment (both current and projected to 2028) have been published for Western Australia and will follow for Victoria on Wednesday. The deadline for suggestions in New South Wales, which reduces from 47 to 46 seats, is this coming Friday.
• The former Liberal Democratic Party, which has lost the right to have the word “liberal” in its name following legislative changes before the last election, is seeking to register as the Libertarian Party (with a proposed logo that looks to be rather a lot like that of Queensland’s Liberal National Party). This is now its formal name in Victoria, where it boasts one seat in the Legislative Council, though it retains its old name in New South Wales, where ditto.
• The Australian reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will bring down its final report on the 2022 election next month. Most of the terms of reference were addressed in the interim report, the exception being “proportional representation of the states and territories in the Parliament, in the context of the democratic principle of ‘one vote, one value’”.
An AP photographer got the money shot of Donald Trump actually behind bars:
World Politics & News roundup (excluding Gaza/Middle East as per the current moratorium):
Kenneth Chesebro takes last-minute plea deal, agrees to testify in Georgia election case: https://abcnews.go.com/US/kenneth-chesebro-takes-minute-plea-deal-georgia-election/story?id=104169908
Former Florida lawmaker who sponsored ‘Don’t Say Gay’ sentenced to prison for Covid-19 relief fraud: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/former-florida-lawmaker-sponsored-dont-say-gay-sentenced-prison-covid-rcna121434
New York judge fired for pointing gun at a Black man in court: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-judge-pointed-gun-black-man-acb11b7f8891970b367f2d8495dd54dc
Congressman Ken Buck says he is being evicted after refusing to vote for Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House: https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/colorado-congressman-ken-buck-says-being-evicted-refusing-to-vote-jim-jordan-speaker-of-the-house/
Trump’s Bitter Standoff with Fox News Is Only Getting Worse: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-bitter-standoff-with-fox-news-is-only-getting-worse
‘People are sick and tired’: the man challenging far-right extremist Lauren Boebert: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/21/adam-frisch-lauren-boebert-2024-election-colorado
U.S. warns of Russian efforts to sow doubt over upcoming elections around the globe: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-warns-of-russian-efforts-to-sow-doubt-over-upcoming-elections-around-the-globe
Latvian president: Close Baltic Sea if Russia behind Balticconnector damage: https://news.err.ee/1609139768/latvian-president-close-baltic-sea-if-russia-behind-balticconnector-damage
Sunak forced to bring thousands of Afghans granted sanctuary in Britain to UK from Pakistan amid safety fears: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/afghanistan-home-office-pakistan-iran-refugees-b2433086.html
Jeremy Hunt ‘set to quit as MP’ in fear of a Portillo moment: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/21/jeremy-hunt-set-to-quit-as-mp-in-fear-of-a-portillo-moment?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Watermelon 1.22 am
Thanks for the link to the New Statesman article.
Should be required reading for Boerwar and TPOF.
May the Wombat be with you…
UK Cartoons:
The things you learn following US politics. The Australian PM is addressing a joint session of congress.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4kgtFdw9y4
Is a ‘realist’ another name for a Tankie now, Rainman? 😐
Good morning all.
Identity theft writ large?
I see that the usual suspects have been out an about showing their utter disrespect for ‘wombats’ by lumping them instead of being clear about whether they are talking about Northern Hairy-nosed Wombats, Southern Hairy-nosed Wombats and Common (or vulgar?) Wombats.
ABC Just in just did a puff piece about some Fairy Godmother landlord forced to sell up her two investment properties and exit the property market after regulatory changes were introduced in 2021 regarding keeping pets and mandatory inspections of gas appliances and smoke alarms.
Well, she can piss off back to the bottom of the garden.
C@tmomma, I thought it was you and your mates who came up with ‘Tankie’ as another name/insult for realists.
Not new. ‘tankies’ run the lines on behalf of Putin and for Xi.
From last thread:
Dr Doolittle
The main problem (for Beasley) was not the handicap from the 1996 result for Labor, but rather the handicap in 1998 from the poor candidate selection by the NSW Labor Right. They are very slow to admit their poor personnel selection as a factor in defeat.
Comment of the month.
Australia’s subsequent history has been betrayed by the Right choosing Cathy O’Toole over the Fireman in Lindsay.
(What a pity Lars isn’t here)
You can also throw Belinda Neal in Robertson into this category
Good stuff HH!
Rainman @ #11 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 7:55 am
Problem is, you’re not being very realistic. You and Watermelon are propagating Russian propaganda without question or scepticism.
Maybe you need to read this update from the previous thread to get a sense of perspective. You need it, it seems:
Cronus (AnonBlock)
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 5:14 am
Comment #1077
Update on Russia counterattacks in Ukraine.:
It appears I may have have overestimated Russian tactical improvements and adaptation in my last update as the attacks over recent days have maintained similar tactics providing the same same results, disastrous.
As well as losing five SU-25 fighter jets from manpads and 14 helos (mostly KA-52 attack) on airfields from atacms missiles, Russia is losing unsustainable amounts of equipment in Avdiivka. If Bakhmut was a meat grinder for Wagner soldiers, the Avdiivka region is a meat grinder for Russian soldiers and equipment. Regiments of Russian men and equipment are repeatedly being thrown in waves across open but mined fields and roads with only limited artillery and air support.
The absence of counter-battery fire from Russia means their soldiers are at continual risk of artillery fire with Russian reports suggesting Ukrainian fire has been so heavy in parts that it has effectively wiped out some trench lines. This was always a risk with the arrival of Autumn denuding tree lines that hid trenches but it is the sheer numbers and accuracy of rounds that are proving decisive. Soldiers can be replaced readily by Russia but skilled soldiers and equipment are in increasingly short supply and they will soon be required in a more strategic location in the vicinity of Tokmak further south.
A travesty that England got that close to the WC final. Drop Goals need to be reduced to a point. Considering the team that concedes a try then gets good field position – it was almost like SA scoring a try was only worth 4pts.
But also….. is it fair that a pack strength advantage also gives a team such a guaranteed point advantage? Hmmmm. Weird game that one.
A strategic sign of Russia and China’s forever partnership:
https://news.err.ee/1609140595/finnish-investigators-looking-at-heavy-object-found-near-balticconnector-pipeline
Just looked up ‘tankie’ on Urban Dictionary. It seems:
‘It is always more-or-less abusive…’
Oakeshott Country @ 7.59am.
Your comments regarding Belinda Neal are spot on.
Her preselection angered many supporters of Public Education, based upon her previous employment as a spokesperson and advocate of the Catholic Education Office.
To this day I still refuse to number a square, on a ballot paper, alongside her name.
Dr Doolittle and OC: As far as I can tell, the main problem for Labor in 1998 – which similarly affected the Libs in 2010 – was what Peter Brent dubbed the “sophomore effect”: that is, the historical tendency of voters to give newly elected members (and, for that matter, governments) a second term. This seems to have protected Coalition first-term candidates around the country, including in NSW.
The average swing to Labor across all seats in NSW wasn’t all that bad: 4.11%. Not as good as WA (5.46%), Tas (5.74%) and Qld (7.17%), but around the same as SA (4.15%) and better than Victoria (3.22%).
Labor fell tantalisingly short of a win in a number of seats around the country, with SA providing some particular disappointments. Were the candidates Labor stood in the seats it didn’t quite win in NSW unusually bad? Not to my recollection, although I’m struggling to find details of who stood where online: and, for that matter, any of them are nothing more than names to me.
Anyway, I will not doubt annoy many by stating that I consider it to have been a good thing that Howard won in 1998. If Beazley had won, there would have been no GST and the Feds would have been faced with hiking up income tax rates further to keep afloat the State governments, who would also have been forced to gouge more money through their generally undesirable taxes: several of which are now ancient history because of the introduction of the GST.
Keating and Beazley both always knew that the GST was an essential policy reform, but both of them chose to oppose it on the grounds of political expediency. You will note that, in the 2007-13 period and since Albo was elected in 2022, Labor hasn’t gone anywhere near trying to dismantle it.
Rainman @ #18 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 8:15 am
Playing the Victim Card now, Rainman? Or should that be the Snowflake Card?
#weatheronPB
Comfortably cool air,
suspends a few fluffy clouds,
leisurely drifting.
A generous tribute to Bill Hayden from a journalist in a better position to know him than most.
“ LaurieOakes@LaurieOakes·15h
They don’t come much better than Bill Hayden. He wld have made a great PM.Inheriting Bill’s policies and the people he’d put in key roles gave Hawke a head start.A politician in the finest Labor tradition. Humble,decent, clever,game as they come, Bill’s contribution was immense.”
The word Tankie has been around for decades. How is anyone with an interest in politics only hearing it for the first time now?
Team Katich: “Weird game that one.”
I’ve never got it. Rugby League is pretty comprehensible, although a little monotonous (barge forward for the first three tackles, try a bit of outside play in the next two, and then kick the ball on the sixth). But, for me, Union is one of those games – like basketball and American football – where the referees/umpires wield enormous power over the result.
On the other hand, having grown up in Sydney, I have known quite a few people who played it at a senior level (it having been an amateur game until relatively recently), and they seem to have enjoyed it enormously: perhaps not quite as much as surfers love surfing, but in the same zone. So it must have something going for it.
Sarah Huckabee sanders in hot water:
https://youtu.be/zc5SE2bg3E4?si=DiiaHhjs9p6fYrnc
Meher Baba
Lindsay and Robertson were 2 must win seats for Labor in 98 but both were lost at the pre-selection.
Winning those seats would not have won government but the processes show the malaise in the NSW Right at the time, which would get much worse during the next decade.
Oakeshott Country
….and Jim Lloyd (Robertson) was the atypical lucky candidate, with a total charisma by-pass, who managed to win that seat for the CLP.
Expat @ #24 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 8:40 am
And getting super upset because it’s being applied to them? 🙄
China has agreed to drop tariffs on Australian wine of 220%, subject to a 5 month review.
Rainman and watermelon, Russia’s plan was easy to see. Russia do whatever it takes to encircle Avdiivka and people like you undermine the West’s support of Ukraine over the Northern winter.
Russia has failed at the first step. Both of you may as well stand down, you are just looking silly.
Insiders didn’t have the sanity to follow poll bludger’s policy.
OC: how could Labor have realistically hoped to win Lindsay? It was one seat where the incumbent had a particularly high profile, courtesy of one of those unnecessary and pointless (IMO) Section 44 cases against her, which forced a by-election in which the voters gave her an increased margin (because, as far as I can work out, they hate the section 44 stuff as much as I do). Kelly continued to hold the seat until 2007.
I’m not sure who ran against her in 1998: can you remind me?
As for Robertson: Belinda Neal’s political career is of couse something best forgotten (one of a number of a politicians whose career was ended/damaged by those fatal words “Don’t you know who I am?”). She’s hardly the first political candidate in Australian history who was perhaps aided by their birth or marriage, and I doubt she’ll be the last. And she actually managed to win the seat in 2007, buoyed by a larger general swing.
With Rugby, you run with the ball. If you’re too slow you’re tackled then the opposing team jump on top of you. Then you’re team jumps on top of them. The ball soon emerges from the ensuing melee and someone else runs with it…
Mark Kenny speaking a lot of sense about the Israel/Palestine situation.
One of the best articles on current politics for some time, IMO.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/21/no-matter-how-serious-the-issue-nuance-becomes-a-thought-for-the-coalitions-court-jesters
Speers is trying to get his panelists to badmouth the government over division with the above war but he’s having zero success.
So…Jacinta Price will be our first Aboriginal PM? Talk about projection!
Why does Insiders persist with the droning, boring Simon Birmingham? He’s a complete waste of air time.
MB
I was on the ground in Lindsay – Kelly was considered an accidental politician. In 1996, the Libs hope was Jim Aitkens who had run a close race in Penrith in the state election but he withdrew at the last minute and Kelly was the sacrificial lamb who did not get her affairs in order because she was considered to have no chance.
Nonetheless Kelly was not embedded by 1998.
The Labor pre-selection was particularly bloody. The guy LVT and I call the Fireman was an excellent on the ground candidate but due to Sussex St shenanigans and the quota, Cathy O’Toole (commonly called O’Fool in the local branches) got the nod.
O’Toole was 22, a law student who followed our own A_E as Gough’s minder. Her boyfriend was Peter Jones who was a Tripodi consigliere. Her media presence was particularly poor and the campaign was a disaster. A swing of 1.6 was required to win the seat but came in at 0.3 compared to the state average of more than 4.
What happened to Jones and O’Toole in the Labor Party is another story but needless to say they were both expelled (like Belinda Neal) many years ago.
BK: “Why does Insiders persist with the droning, boring Simon Birmingham? He’s a complete waste of air time.”
He’s really phoning it in today. I reckon he’ll announce his retirement fairly soon.
C@tmomma
Just looked up ‘snowflake’ on Urban Dictionary. It seems it is ‘an insult…used by people who are incapable of using their intellect and their words to make their point in an intelligent manner.’
If you can’t go to sleep, forget sheep, a recording of Simon Birmingham will do the trick.
frednk
A continuous loop of Birmingham instead of heavy metal rock would be a far more effective tool for psychological torture than heavy metal rock.
Meher Baba
The social determinism of “Rugby” in NSW and Queensland must always be considered. Union is an appalling game further ruined by referee intervention BUT it is a way for the upper classes to distinguish themselves from the workers. A lot of business is carried on at GPS games.
Fortunately the death of Union as a major sport in Australia has probably occurred at this World Cup.
Rainman @ #42 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 9:33 am
Of course you did, Rainman. And it suited your purpose, which is deflection from your original post agreeing with Watermelon’s comment at 1.22am this morning. Okay, would you like to look up, shifting the goalposts now?
OC: I’d forgotten (or perhaps never knew) about that Cathy O’Toole (presuming that she’s not the person of the same name who was elected for Labor from somewhere in North Queensland). She subsequently sank without trace, so presumably she was devoid of talent.
However, I’m not certain that any Labor candidate would have been guaranteed to win the seat in 1998. What became apparent in the 1990s is that outer Sydney was steadily becoming more marginal for Labor. The area is less friendly for Labor today even than it was in 1998.
In short, I think that blaming Labor’s loss in 1998 on the NSW Labor Right is a little far-fetched.
Here’s another definition of ‘snowflake’ from Wikipedia, Rainman:
What does it mean when you say someone is a snowflake?
“Snowflake” is a derogatory slang term for a person, implying that they have an inflated sense of uniqueness, an unwarranted sense of entitlement, or are overly emotional, easily offended, and unable to deal with opposing opinions.
Birmingham still hasn’t stopped talking! 🙄
The Libs send Birmo to Insiders because they believe he will not frighten Insider’s audience horses. He might bore them to death but that actually helps with the Plan.
Dutton wants all the anger where Dutton wants all the anger.