Weekend miscellany: redistribution and referendum latest (open thread)

Referendum results displays; progress in the federal redistribution process; party registration news.

I suspect we’re entering something of an opinion poll drought, with media polling budgets having been exhausted in the last stages of the referendum campaign. On that subject, my live results feature continue to update on a daily-or-so basis. There is also Simon Jackman’s, which includes an impressive feature allowing the user to observe relationships between booth results and various electoral and demographic measures.

Other news:

• The federal redistribution processes for Western Australia and Victoria, which will respectively increase the state’s representation from 15 seats to 16 and reduce it from 39 to 38, moved along a notch this week. Submission deadlines for suggestions have been set at November 17 for Western Australia and November 24 for Victoria; supporting information including the enrolment data that will set the quotas for enrolment (both current and projected to 2028) have been published for Western Australia and will follow for Victoria on Wednesday. The deadline for suggestions in New South Wales, which reduces from 47 to 46 seats, is this coming Friday.

• The former Liberal Democratic Party, which has lost the right to have the word “liberal” in its name following legislative changes before the last election, is seeking to register as the Libertarian Party (with a proposed logo that looks to be rather a lot like that of Queensland’s Liberal National Party). This is now its formal name in Victoria, where it boasts one seat in the Legislative Council, though it retains its old name in New South Wales, where ditto.

• The Australian reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will bring down its final report on the 2022 election next month. Most of the terms of reference were addressed in the interim report, the exception being “proportional representation of the states and territories in the Parliament, in the context of the democratic principle of ‘one vote, one value’”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

236 comments on “Weekend miscellany: redistribution and referendum latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 5
1 2 3 5
  1. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:42 am
    “Birmingham still hasn’t stopped talking! ”

    But he didn’t really say anything

  2. After a long answer to a quastion.
    PM Hacker: “Bernard, I didn’t understand a word you said!”
    Bernard Wooley: “Thank you, Prime Minister”.

  3. Rambler
    I am fascinated by their behaviour and do a google search now and then but have not seen anything.
    I am not sure if Peter Jones’ role in the alleged defrauding of the Prairewood Calabrian Club has been resolved.

  4. And it almost paid off for them in 2015. From memory it was only a few thousand votes at the final exclusion against the Animal Justice Party that cost them a big pay day. Given the track record, no doubt we will hear from them again.

  5. The Bin Chickens are very healthy looking in my local area. They have discovered the baby crabs and prawns in the mud in the Mangroves. 🙂

  6. To give an example of the quality of discourse here, I’m being accused of “tankie propaganda” for sharing this article from New Statesman: The realists were right.

    Please refer to the article as a reference point for how corrupted and meaningless the term has become.

  7. Rex, I know many treat the ramblings of Shane Dowling with derision, but his latest offering suggests that J Price and her relatives are milking the public purse with the backing of Dutton and Littleproud. References were made to a private but publically funded school in Alice Springs with more staff than students

  8. “ O’Toole was 22, a law student who followed our own A_E as Gough’s minder.”

    I … may … have had something to do with that.

    Of can fulminate all he wants over O’Toole’s lack of electoral appeal, but by 1998 her opponent had been elevated into the ranks of bogan icon status and the seat was not for turning. In my view ‘the candidate’ aspect of Labor’s failure to win back the seat was pretty irrelevant. I was working for the TWU at the time, and although no fan of Jones or Tripodi, Steve Hutchins DID poor huge resources into the campaign, but to no avail. He didn’t blame ‘the candidate’ factor at the time.

    Back in 1998 I was too busy reforming the Sydney Courier industry at the time, so was not allowed by Steve or Tony Sheldon to campaign very much, and to the extent I did I worked on my local campaign – John Murphy’s successful campaign to win back Lowe (now effectively the seat of Reid) along with a bunch of other alumni from Mary Easton’s 1996 campaign (Fabian Gleeson – now on the NSW Court of Appeal – was her official campaign manager).

  9. 15m ago
    11.15 AEDT
    Adeshola Ore
    Adeshola Ore
    Federal government must ‘fix Medicare’: Victorian health minister

    Victoria’s health minister, Mary-Anne Thomas, has reignited calls for the federal government to “fix Medicare”, as Australians prepare to face increased costs for doctors appointments.

    From next month, Australians will pay more than $100 for a standard non-bulk-billed GP appointment. It comes after the Australian Medical Association recommended doctors raise their fees to cope with soaring costs of running a practice.

    Speaking to reporters, Thomas says fixing Medicare is a federal responsibility.

    “It’s never been harder to access a bulk-billing GP than it is right now. And that’s simply not good enough.

    Our government has done more to support general practitioners than any other state government.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/oct/22/anthony-albanese-us-visit-israel-gaza-conflict-nsw-bushfire-alert-victoria-earthquake

    If you’re not a pensioner or welfare recipient, you’ll struggle to find a bulk billing GP.

    Another example of low income earners left behind.

  10. A_E
    Ah, you have reminded me of Hutchins, not necessarily benign, influence in Penrith. (His first wife eventually won Badgerys Creek and was O’Toole’s mentor)

    Collins would have had the support of the branches, once you sorted out the stacking in Kingswood and disqualified the Claremont Meadows ghost branch. He was a reasonable guy and there is a strong chance that he would have out-boganned Kelly and got the extra 1%.

    Of course Collins eventually got a seat in the NT and was expelled from the party after 18 months.

  11. Granny Anny @ #62 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 10:59 am

    Rex, I know many treat the ramblings of Shane Dowling with derision, but his latest offering suggests that J Price and her relatives are milking the public purse with the backing of Dutton and Littleproud. References were made to a private but publically funded school in Alice Springs with more staff than students

    Anny, I’ve never understood the logic of govt using taxpayer funds on private schooling.

  12. So how are Dutton and Littleproud backing some supposed milking of the public purse from opposition?

    Honestly, some people on the left are going down as many crazy rabbit holes as those on the far right.

  13. I read yesterday that, fresh from her victory over the Voice and her confirmation of the benefits of colonialism, J. N. Price has a new mission. It is to “push back” against the transgender movement.

    This will be well worth watching. Success should set her up for her push for the top job.

  14. I liked the cover of the Saturday Paper this week: a blank white page, with a small “No” in the middle of it.

    Highlights the size of the outcome.

  15. So, Albanese is going to visit China next month. A pragmatic move, and yet debatable electorally. Dutton and Littleprice will now argue that ALP are aligned with commies, dictators and Stalin. Just like Trump did with Biden. They will probably use the word “appeasement” and “chamberlain” somehwere.

    The problem is most of the electorate are political and literal naifs, and without trying to sound condescending, salt of the terra nullius. They will believe them.

    Besides, isn’t it more important to pay attention to cost of living, indigenous child abuse (by their own kind) and men-who-call-themselves-women as higher priorities than appeasing China*?

    *Some degree of sarcasm intended

  16. MelbourneMammoth
    So, Albanese is going to visit China next month. A pragmatic move, and yet debatable electorally.

    I do not know for what reason this is debatable electorally. Under Dutton, the LNP rhetoric against China has been over-the-top, and unproductive to their electoral prospects. The ALP was helped to victory in 2022 because many Chinese Australian voters in seats like Chisholm, Reid, and Bennelong swung to the ALP.

  17. Watermelon: “Oh no. Greta Thunberg has come out as a terror supporter.”

    I think you meant to say “How dare she!”

    I always assumed that she would become more closely tied to the hard left when she got older.

  18. For the benefit of Melbourne Mammoth and any other RW cranks and agitators seeking to score political points against the Albanese government in order to erode their popularity via a cynical focus on Child Abuse in Indigenous communities, I suggest you view today’s episode of Insiders and the interview with their Indigenous Affairs reporter in Yarraba, FNQ, wherein she refers to the furphy that the Coalition are attempting to make viral, of a crisis of Child Abuse in Indigenous communities. She referred to statistical proof that the levels of Child Abuse in Indigenous communities is actually lower than that in the general community.

  19. meher baba @ #79 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 1:39 pm

    Watermelon: “Oh no. Greta Thunberg has come out as a terror supporter.”

    I think you meant to say “How dare she!”

    I always assumed that she would become part of the hard left when she got older.

    I’d have thought that campaigning against the destruction of environment and community would be seen as centrist …?

  20. c@t: I clearly heard the report from Yarraba as stating that it was level of reported child abuse in that community that was lower, so it is possible that there is a significant amount of unreported child abuse.

    I have known quite a few people who have worked in remote Indigenous communities and all of them have reported that the level of child abuse is a significant problem. Not just by families or other males in the community, but truck drivers and other whitefellas who pay for the privilege.

    Dutton is playing a distasteful political game. But that doesn’t mean that the problem doesn’t exist. However, there is no pressing need for a Royal Commission: there’s plenty of reports already available. The main solution is, as always, better services with more funding, and administered in a transparent and ethical way (be that by Indigenous people, white people or a combination of the two).

  21. Unlike the generations that doomed the world, the Zoomers are only getting more left-wing with age. But wait til you meet their kids.

  22. I am a long time ‘lurker’ and occasional poster . I have tried to stay out of all of this Israel-Palestine debate because you might say I have a vested interest. My heritage is both Jewish (in fact I lost many relatives in Poland during the Second World War) and Irish Catholic. I find it difficult to read the startling lack of empathy shown in this blog towards the destruction of human lives everywhere by all the posters on this blog, regardless of the ‘team’ for which they ‘root’ in whatever conflict, but most recently in the ME. I stand with humanity over terror and against overwhelming vengeful military force. Obviously I am appalled and traumatised by the work of Hamas, but my Jewish genes also resonate with the ‘Jews Against the Occupation’ in their condemnation of Israel’s response and its position as the “root of the violence and misery…” which is Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory. I won’t post again and you can obviously feel free to ignore this post (if it even gets through moderation), but just be aware that words are important and what seems to be great sport to people on this blog may have social ramifications far beyond it.

  23. Rex: “I’d have thought that campaigning against the destruction of environment and community would be seen as centrist …?”

    She’s been hanging more and more with the more aggressive environmental activists.

    Anyway, she’s in a fair bit of bother, because the photo posted of her holding a “Stand with Gaza” sign also featured a toy octopus: octopusses being associated with anti-Semitism all the way back to the Protocols of the Elders of Zion era. She claims she didn’t know it was there.

    Ms Thunberg should probably stick to what she’s proven she’s very good at and not lend her good name to questionable causes.

  24. meher baba @ #86 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 1:54 pm

    Rex: “I’d have thought that campaigning against the destruction of environment and community would be seen as centrist …?”

    She’s been hanging more and more with the more aggressive environmental activists.

    Anyway, she’s in a fair bit of bother, because the photo posted of her holding a “Stand with Gaza” sign also featured a toy octopus: octopusses being associated with anti-Semitism all the way back to the Protocols of the Elders of Zion era. She claims she didn’t know it was there.

    Ms Thunberg should probably stick to what she’s proven she’s very good at and not lend her good name to questionable causes.

    She addressed the stuffed toy issue.

    Greta Thunberg
    @GretaThunberg
    It has come to my knowledge that the stuffed animal shown in my earlier post can be interpreted as a symbol for antisemitism, which I was completely unaware of. The toy in the picture is a tool often used by autistic people as a way to communicate feelings.

    We are of course against any type of discrimination, and condemn antisemitism in all forms and shapes. This is non-negotiable. That is why I deleted the last post.
    12:13 AM · Oct 21, 2023
    ·
    4.8M
    Views

    https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1715355506078892505

  25. Post referendum report from Demos AU

    https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Voice-to-Parliament-Research-What-Drove-The-No-Victory.pdf

    * Last weeks Essential report still does not contain primaries. It will be outdated anyway.
    * Redbridge, slightly overdue on publishing their October Federal Poll 2023 (last was 7 Sep)
    * Roy Morgan Poll due this Tues arvo. This will be the first poll to cover the post referendum period, &
    * Has anyone got a tip off for a Newspoll tonight. They’re not due but they often surprise.

  26. Getting outraged by these messages is ridiculous.

    Week 270. Today we strike in solidarity with Palestine and Gaza. The world needs to speak up and call for an immediate ceasefire, justice and freedom for Palestinians and all civilians affected.#FreePalestine #IStandWithPalestine #StandWithGaza #FridaysForFutureThread pic.twitter.com/0hVtya0yWO— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) October 20, 2023

    It goes without saying – or so I thought – that I’m against the horrific attacks by hamas. As I said, “the world needs to speak up and call for an immediate ceasefire, justice and freedom for Palestinians and all civilians affected.”#StandWithPalestine— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) October 21, 2023

  27. Thunberg’s autism probably makes it difficult to moderate her sense of moral clarity.

    Which is bad news for her as she is now not only a terror sympathiser but also an anti-Semite, incriminated by possession of a toy octopus.

  28. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/21/the-most-successful-land-grab-strategy-since-1967-as-settlers-push-bedouins-off-west-bank-territory

    The tiny settlement overlooking the Bedouin village of Ein Rashash is named “Angels of Peace”, but, says Sliman al-Zawahri, its residents have visited only violence, fear and despair on his family.

    This week the Bedouin community packed up most of their belongings and drove all the women, children and elderly people from the West Bank ridge they had called home for nearly four decades, perched above a spring and beside an archaeological site.

    “They didn’t leave us air to breathe,” said Zawahri, 52, describing a months-long campaign of violence and intimidation that intensified in the last two weeks. First villagers were barred from grazing lands, and the spring, then violence reached their homes.

    “They came into the village and destroyed houses and sheep pens, beat an 85-year-old man, scared our children. Slowly our lives became unlivable.”

  29. Watermelon: “Thunberg’s autism probably makes it difficult to moderate her sense of moral clarity.”

    Her autism is presumably what is now known as “high-functioning autism” or “on the spectrum.” I have met a number of people who claim to have this condition who seem to me to be little different to anybody else, but also some who do display unusual behaviours. But the main symptoms are supposedly a tendency towards obsessiveness and an inability to respond to non-verbal cues from other people. I haven’t heard that “lack of moral clarity” is a symptom. But there are no doubt others on here who know more about the subject than me.

    So she claims that the octopus was her comfort toy (not an ususal thing these days, even among those who haven’t been diagnosed as autistic). I’m prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt on this occasion: the association of octopusses with anti-Semitism is a somewhat obscure one, and it’s unlikely that someone of her age and background would know about it.

  30. Watermelon @ #90 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 2:03 pm

    Thunberg’s autism probably makes it difficult to moderate her sense of moral clarity.

    Which is bad news for her as she is now not only a terror sympathiser but also an anti-Semite, incriminated by possession of a toy octopus.

    You’re the only one saying these things about her here, by way of trying to offload that freight onto the rest of us. 😐

  31. meher baba,
    Only the cynical wishing to use and abuse the autistic for their own benefit, such as our resident fruit, Watermelon, would bring that association up.

  32. meher baba

    “lack of moral clarity”

    I believe your phrasing is a misinterpretation and that “difficult to moderate her sense of moral clarity” is intended to be understood more in the sense that she won’t compromise her morals.

  33. Greta Thunberg will eventually be proven to have been right on the money all the time about the environment and how society is structured to protect the wealthy and powerful, two highly interconnected issues.

    In ancient times that was called being a prophet. The sooner the prophet is listened to, the less pain society will have to go through.

  34. Greta Thunberg and a stuffed toy octopus?

    This is the classic shit that passes for discussion in heated matters. Somebody, somewhere suggests that this is a sign of anti-semitism because of an historic trope. She denies it and it is quite reasonable to take her denial at face value.

    The stupid and pretty baseless claim is then taken up by purported defenders of the young women to attack a much wider range of people – that is, anyone who takes a different stance from her on the current Middle East situation.

    And away we go with mass stupidity all round. And we have Watermelon pushing this ridiculous stupidity now – ironically while he is defending the descendants of the creators of the Protocols of the Elders of Zion.

Comments Page 2 of 5
1 2 3 5

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *