Weekend miscellany: redistribution and referendum latest (open thread)

Referendum results displays; progress in the federal redistribution process; party registration news.

I suspect we’re entering something of an opinion poll drought, with media polling budgets having been exhausted in the last stages of the referendum campaign. On that subject, my live results feature continue to update on a daily-or-so basis. There is also Simon Jackman’s, which includes an impressive feature allowing the user to observe relationships between booth results and various electoral and demographic measures.

Other news:

• The federal redistribution processes for Western Australia and Victoria, which will respectively increase the state’s representation from 15 seats to 16 and reduce it from 39 to 38, moved along a notch this week. Submission deadlines for suggestions have been set at November 17 for Western Australia and November 24 for Victoria; supporting information including the enrolment data that will set the quotas for enrolment (both current and projected to 2028) have been published for Western Australia and will follow for Victoria on Wednesday. The deadline for suggestions in New South Wales, which reduces from 47 to 46 seats, is this coming Friday.

• The former Liberal Democratic Party, which has lost the right to have the word “liberal” in its name following legislative changes before the last election, is seeking to register as the Libertarian Party (with a proposed logo that looks to be rather a lot like that of Queensland’s Liberal National Party). This is now its formal name in Victoria, where it boasts one seat in the Legislative Council, though it retains its old name in New South Wales, where ditto.

• The Australian reports the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters will bring down its final report on the 2022 election next month. Most of the terms of reference were addressed in the interim report, the exception being “proportional representation of the states and territories in the Parliament, in the context of the democratic principle of ‘one vote, one value’”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

236 comments on “Weekend miscellany: redistribution and referendum latest (open thread)”

Comments Page 4 of 5
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  1. many years ago when Howard tried to scare people with Aboriginal pedophiles a cartoon, perhaps a Nicholson, but I’m not sure, skewered him very nicely.

    It had Howard hanging over a fence, trying to scare a child. The caption went something like

    ‘If that story about unions doesn’t scare you, what about this aboriginal pedophile’.

    Howard having a aboriginal sock puppet on one hand.

    I have tried to locate it but to no avail.

  2. Watermelon
    Thunberg’s autism probably makes it difficult to moderate her sense of moral clarity.
    ————-
    One of her friends could have told her to remove the octopus.

  3. Surely Mr Dutton and Ms Price are obliged to refer any credible information that they might have about child abuse or other serious crime occurring in the NT to the NT Police.

  4. “ Surely Mr Dutton and Ms Price are obliged to refer any credible information that they might have about child abuse or other serious crime occurring in the NT to the NT Police.”

    _______

    Where is the Cultcha War value in that?

  5. Speaking of cultcha wars:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/declaration-of-war-mundine-rejects-criticism-from-yes-campaign-20231022-p5ee3g.html

    “ The statement, which is unsigned, has caused division among Indigenous leaders in the Yes camp. Some leaders declined to be part of it, saying it struck the wrong tone or that they disagreed with the points it made. Members of the Yes camp who were approached yesterday declined to comment.

    The draft letter says Indigenous leaders Price, Senator Kerrynne Liddle, and Mundine who opposed the Voice to parliament “were just front people for three right-wing organisations”.

    “It is an old colonial tactic to use black people to fight black people,” the statement says.

    Mundine said he opposed the referendum because it was divisive between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. He said the draft letter “was a continuation of that”.

    “So much for reconciliation and uniting the country,” he said. “This is a declaration of war, metaphorically.”

    ______

    Hypocrisy, thy name is Mundine.

    back in 2014, when he headed Abbot’s Indigenous Advisory Council HE was the one making the calls for a Indigenous Voice to Government.

    back in 2018, HE was on record as saying that he was coming around to the Noel Pearson argument that The Voice had to be enshrined inj the constitution to save it from suffering the same fate as ATSIC and its predecessors (of course it was no coincidence that at that time Federal labor supported a legislated voice as a first step, and hence he was just opportunistically criticising Labor).

  6. So, Indigenous Australians have to be ‘United’ under the banner of the Assimilationist agenda of Mundine, Price and Liddle now? No one can have any opinion unless it’s your opinion? Otherwise they are to be branded as divisive? Neat little rhetorical trick, Wazza.

    FRO!

  7. Boerwar @ #141 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 4:37 pm

    So how will the Coalition decide to their next national policy priority?

    Will it be to get rid of Indigenous identity? (Abbott)
    Will it be to push back at trans people? (Price)
    Will it be to link child sex abuse to Indigenous people? (Dutton)

    All class! But dangerous nevertheless. Very dangerous.

    Too easy. They will Assimilate via Conversion Therapy all Indigenous Trans people, before they undergo full conversion, to become Righteous Christians worshipping at the alter of the Christian God, no longer any of their spirit gods, and thus will they be cleansed forevermore of their child abuse ways. 😐

  8. EmmaM @ #84 Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 – 1:51 pm

    I am a long time ‘lurker’ and occasional poster . I have tried to stay out of all of this Israel-Palestine debate because you might say I have a vested interest. My heritage is both Jewish (in fact I lost many relatives in Poland during the Second World War) and Irish Catholic. I find it difficult to read the startling lack of empathy shown in this blog towards the destruction of human lives everywhere by all the posters on this blog, regardless of the ‘team’ for which they ‘root’ in whatever conflict, but most recently in the ME. I stand with humanity over terror and against overwhelming vengeful military force. Obviously I am appalled and traumatised by the work of Hamas, but my Jewish genes also resonate with the ‘Jews Against the Occupation’ in their condemnation of Israel’s response and its position as the “root of the violence and misery…” which is Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory. I won’t post again and you can obviously feel free to ignore this post (if it even gets through moderation), but just be aware that words are important and what seems to be great sport to people on this blog may have social ramifications far beyond it.

    Which is why our wise Moderator has decided we should steer well clear of it.

  9. I looked up the definition of “divisive” in the Liberal-Murdoch dictionary. It means “not accepting in full and without question the positions and policies of the Coalition”.

  10. C@tmomma
    I thought the Wind Turbines were killing them?

    Dropping like flies I hear – thanks to the trauma inflicted by evil wind turbines.

    Apparently they make the whales go “batty” and beach themselves – according to Donald Trump. So you know it must be true.

  11. The fact that the Producers of Insiders are completely unable to find a journalist or political commentator who either supported the No vote or supports Israel shouldn’t surprise me, but it does. How anyone can believe that the ABC is complying with its Charter is also beyond me.

  12. From the UK MoD:

    “It is likely that Russia has suffered 150,000-190,000 permanent casualties (killed and permanently wounded) since the conflict began, with the total figure including temporarily wounded (recovered and due to return to the battlefield in some capacity) in the region of 240,000-290,000. This does not include Wagner Group
    or their prisoner battalions who fought in Bakhmut.”

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1715968466501472576

    Add in Wagner PMC casualties:

    “ A total of 78,000 PMC Wagner fighters participated in the Ukrainian mission. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut (20 May), 22,000 fighters were killed, 40,000 wounded”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-over-20000-wagner-troops-were-killed-prigozhin/#:~:text=the%20statement%20said.-,“A%20total%20of%2078%2C000%20PMC%20Wagner%20fighters%20participated%20in%20the,fighters%20were%20killed%2C%2040%2C000%20wounded.

  13. not that i know much about israel v palestine but the pro israel comintaters including many on the forum atempt to shut down any critercizm of israel by acusing us of defending hamus hostidge tacking now that ed husic came out saying that a attackat a festival close to eligal settlements and hostige tacking does not justify israel killing as many palistinions as they can in there campaign to wipe out palistine which is what they were the victems of them selves

  14. Cat

    “ I thought the Wind Turbines were killing them? ”

    Ha 😀

    If the far right really cared about whales, they would be dropping demands for nuclear powered submarines. Their very high powered active sonars have in the past been cited as possible causes of mass whale beachings. If whales are deafened by loud sounds they are effectively rendered both deaf and blind, because they both communicate and navigate by sound.

  15. if un had any power israel should be prosecuted for war crimes but of course they will never sign up to the criminal court but deliberate killing of un armed sevillions is a war crime if israel believed there were right they would not triy and shut down bob car and acuse palistinion seporters of being anti semitic its about time we take the step of recognizing palistine and also treat israel like south africa until they stop building there eligal setlements

  16. Last night in these pages, following the death of Bill Hayden, we had some discussion of ”the best Prime Minister we never had”, although it was restricted to the Labor side.

    There were also figures on the Coalition side who might have become Prime Minister, who might have changed the Australia we now find ourselves in, who were widely expected (by themselves and others) get the big chair, but who never made it.

    Hopefully Peter Dutton joins their number in 2025.
    Who else? Well, Dutton miffed it in 2018.
    Peter Costello, of course.
    John Hewson, who lost the un-losable election in 1993.
    Andrew Peacock, who lost the battle with John Howard for the soul of the Liberal Party.
    Billy Sneddon perhaps.
    There must have been any number during Menzies’ endless years in office before they eventually ended. Richard Casey? Paul Hasluck? Others? All before my time.

    Then there was Holt, who did make it and who may have gone on to win in 1969. After that, who knows? But he chose a bad day to go for a swim and the rest is history.

  17. Aaron

    I’m not going to start a discussion on Israel/Gaza. I do need to point out that the places attacked by Hamas were absolutely NOT illegal settlements but part of Israel since it’s foundation since 1948.

  18. FUBAR: “The fact that the Producers of Insiders are completely unable to find a journalist or political commentator who either supported the No vote or supports Israel shouldn’t surprise me, but it does. How anyone can believe that the ABC is complying with its Charter is also beyond me.”

    I am an avid consumer of BBC material. FWIW, the ABC was far more balanced in its coverage of the alleged attack on the hospital than was the BBC, which was disturbingly quick to condemn Israel. Even, I’m sorry to say, the usually terrific Lyse Doucet, who I usually think rivals Christine Amanpour on CNN as the best international correspondent going around ATM (but I’m starting to wonder a bit).

    And, of course, there was the problem of the New York Times putting up a story with a picture of a destroyed building: but it was the wrong building.

    So I’ll give the ABC a bit of a tick on the Israel story. And the problem on Insiders this morning was not so much a determined bias against Israel, but that three out of the four people talking about the conflict really had not much idea about what they were talking about (Speers and two of the panellists: Mark Kenny was pretty sensible, I thought).

    As for Indigenous matters: I have posted before that I think that both Insiders and the Drum came across as strongly pro-Yes. The ABC stepped up its acknowledgements of country and ABC TV also put on high rotation their self-advertising clip of “I Am Australian” filmed in Central Australia and featuring a mixed Indigenous and non-Indigenous choir all hugging each other. Whether or not one considers this approach to have been acceptable, it clearly didn’t work and might even have been a negative for the Yes campaign on balance (making people feel like they were being pressured to vote Yes, provoking an oppositional response in some of them).

    So, at the end of the day, I’m not too fussed about the alleged bias of the ABC to the left. Just as I am completely uninterested in the whinging about “their ABC” that used to go on here (and didn’t I see someone insinuating that Probyn was a Liberal earlier on today: that is the guy who Malcolm Turnbull personally took a turn against. Or was that poster joking?).

  19. Of all the Opposition Leaders who never became PM, the person I regret the country missing out on most is Latham

    … John Latham, that is.

    (Actually, I don’t have any strong feelings about him or think that. I just wanted to do a humourous misdirection.)

  20. If nothing else, the dour and very conservative John Latham would probably have been easier for Labor to wrest from power after a couple of terms than the charismatic and popular Joe Lyons, who – like Hughes before him – was able to use his former Labor allegiances to brand himself as the worker’s friend and win broad support from the electorate.

    Don’t get me wrong – anyone would have beaten Scullin in 1931, and probably in 1934 too, but 1937 may have proved a closer match without Lyons as PM.

  21. All going well the Federal Liberals will go the same way the Victorian Liberals did with their black gang stunt two state elections back. Is there anyone with any decency left in the Liberal party? Is there any decency left in the Murdoch stable?

  22. Indigenous leaders break their silence, call referendum defeat ‘appalling and mean-spirited’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-22/indigenous-leaders-call-referendum-defeat-appalling/103004646

    Yes. The sheer smallness of it.

    But 40% this year will be 41% next year. We know how it disaggregated by age. Give it ten years of demographic attrition and we’ll get to a position of justice.

    The truth is every major change starts with a defeat. This will end in victory, and we’ll a better and larger country for it.

  23. The ABC coverage is biased; Al Jazeera is the only news source in the world with any actual resources invested in covering the situation in Gaza. Western journalists may occasionally attempt to tell the truth, but media organizations like the ABC have an editorial policy to essentially regurgitate the US State Department line uncritically.

  24. “The fact that the Producers of Insiders are completely unable to find a journalist or political commentator who either supported the No vote or supports Israel shouldn’t surprise me

    We don’t need a pro-war crime, pro-occupation perspective in a news commentary show in the same way that we don’t need a pro-genocide or a pro-ethnic cleansing perspective. Not all perspectives are legitimate and worthy of air time.

  25. Lefty e @8:39. ”But 40% this year will be 41% next year. We know how it disaggregated by age. Give it ten years of demographic attrition and we’ll get to a position of justice.

    The truth is every major change starts with a defeat. This will end in victory, and we’ll a better and larger country for it.”

    Maybe. Hopefully you are right.

    But the ranks of the people who, back in the 90s, fulminated on talkback radio, in clubs and around the water cooler, about “boats”, about the “aboriginal industry”, about unwed mothers living it up on the dole, about “political correctness” before it had that name, the sentiments that John Howard was able to weaponise. Time has diminished their ranks.

    But they’re being replaced.

    Many of the baby boomers who voted for Whitlam in 1972 now vote for their franking credits, even if they don’t get them.


  26. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 8:45 pm

    If you want the truth and nothing but the truth you must read the Global Times and Izvestia.

    Being the source of choice, I don’t think watermelon or rainmaker will see the humor.

  27. Pratt pays Keating 25k a month. Has done for a decade. Abbott 8k a month. For what? Apparently high end international relations advice. If you can believe that.

  28. Catching up with the news from earlier today, another excellent outcome for Australian diplomacy with China reviewing tariffs on Australian wine prior to Albo going to China.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/22/australia-and-china-suspend-wto-wine-tariff-dispute-ahead-of-albanese-trip-to-beijing

    Economically this is a big deal for South Australia, which has suffered the largest part of the $1 billion in wine exports lost from the tariff. SA hasn’t seen much financial love from Labor so far, with AUKUS locking in a cut of $2 billion per annum in naval shipbuilding spend that was put back ten years when Scomo nuked the French contract.

    It is hard to see the downside of this news, but no doubt one will be constructed in the Australian tomorrow.

  29. Socrates says:
    Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:02 pm
    Catching up with the news from earlier today, another excellent outcome for Australian diplomacy with China reviewing tariffs on Australian wine prior to Albo going to China.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/22/australia-and-china-suspend-wto-wine-tariff-dispute-ahead-of-albanese-trip-to-beijing

    Economically this is a big deal for South Australia, which has suffered the largest part of the $1 billion in wine exports lost from the tariff. SA hasn’t seen much financial love from Labor so far, with AUKUS locking in a cut of $2 billion per annum in naval shipbuilding spend that was put back ten years when Scomo nuked the French contract.

    ____________

    Can I be a little selfish and say that this news is bitter sweet? Next they will be after the crays again! 🙂

    Edit: I preempted Murdoch!

  30. Why on earth would Pratt pay Keating 25k a month? For his connections in the ALP? the amusement of having a former PM as a paid entertainer. Will Keating do a dance if Pratt is bored?

  31. nath says:
    Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:05 pm
    Why on earth would Pratt pay Keating 25k a month? For his connections in the ALP? the amusement of having a former PM as a paid entertainer. Will Keating do a dance if Pratt is bored?

    ____________

    Surely having ready access to personal tutelage on French empire clocks would be worth the fee? 🙂

  32. Griff says:

    Surely having ready access to personal tutelage on French empire clocks would be worth the fee?
    _______
    A worthy cause. But Giuliani got a cool million just on the off chance he ‘could be useful’.

  33. Another divestment in COVID public health communication by NSW

    From 20 October 2023 this NSW COVID-19 weekly update will no longer be published on NSW Health’s website and social media channels. The best indicators of COVID-19 activity in the community at this time are emergency department presentations for COVID-19 and sewage surveillance. pic.twitter.com/3IG7ef8iNX— NSW Health (@NSWHealth) October 19, 2023

    Just in time for the uptick in hospital presentations in Victoria and NSW.

  34. nath says:
    Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:11 pm
    Griff says:

    Surely having ready access to personal tutelage on French empire clocks would be worth the fee?
    _______
    A worthy cause. But Giuliani got a cool million just on the off chance he ‘could be useful’.

    _______

    It wasn’t for appearing in Borat 2?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiH97O542jA

    Parental advisory required.

  35. Pratt paying Keating 25k a month for 10 years works out to a cool 3 million dollars.

    You have to wonder what value he’s getting out of it. Even if there is the odd handjob.

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