The Australian has published aggregated Newspoll breakdowns from polling conducted from August 28 to October 12, encompassing the four polls conducted since Pyxis Polling took over. The overall sample is 6378, having been boosted by 2368 in the pre-referendum poll (which recorded 57% for no and 37% for yes, converting to a bang-on-accurate 60.6-39.4 after exclusion of the uncommitted).
Keeping in mind that the previous set of results, from February 1 to April 3, were conducted by a different agency, the results show Labor’s two-party lead up slightly in New South Wales (from 55-45 to 56-44) and South Australia (from 56-44 to 57-43), but down solidly in Victoria (from 58-42 to 54-46) and Western Australia (57-43 to 53-47). The Coalition is credited with a 52-48 lead in Queensland after a 50-50 result last time, and we are given the rare treat of numbers for Tasmania, where Labor leads 57-43. This suggests swings to Labor of about 4.5% in New South Wales, 2% in Queensland, 3% in South Australia and 2.5% in Tasmania, and to the Coalition of 1% in Victoria and 2% in Western Australia.
The age breakdowns do not repeat a Labor blowout last time among the 18-to-34 cohort, which has progressed over the term’s three Newspoll breakdowns from 65-35 to 69-31 to 64-35. A five-point Coalition gain on the primary vote to 26% means they do not again finish behind the Greens, who are up a point to 25%, with Labor down six to 37%. The results among the older cohorts are essentially unchanged.
Further results suggest the opening of a substantial new gender gap, or of distinctive house effects between the two polling outfits. Where last time Labor was credited with a slightly bigger lead among men (55-45) than women (54-46), its advantage is now out to 56-44 among women and in to 51-49 among men. Income breakdowns now conform with the traditional pattern, with a 57-43 Labor lead among households on annual incomes of up to $50,000 progressively receding to 50-50 among those on $150,000 or more. The previous breakdowns had Labor strongest in the two middle-income cohorts.
The Coalition destroys.
The Greens delay.
Labor builds.
Watermelon @ #792 Wednesday, October 25th, 2023 – 12:27 pm
No one has to imagine. Russia has
forcibly deportedabducted tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, and millions of Ukrainians generally, at least.Kyiv is one city. Bakhmut exists (as charred rubble).
Mariupol too.
And there’s plenty to see in Kharkiv.
Though anyways, it’s not a contest! Bad things happening in the Middle East don’t make Russia’s actions any less bad. But if you want to compare, go compare. Or just do the sane thing and condemn Russia at least as harshly as you condemn what’s happening in Gaza.
And before you start invoking “genocide”, maybe take a look at where Putin is conscripting the bulk of his cannon-fodder from.
a r
And before you start invoking “genocide”, maybe take a look at where Putin is conscripting the bulk of his cannon-fodder from.
Yes – this cannot be stressed enough. Excuse my crude analogy, but Putin is killing two birds with one stone: Destroying and depopulating eastern Ukraine, and deploying the Russian Federation’s ethnic minorities to do it.
Northe, now in jail, is described by “The Age” as a former INDEPENDENT MP.
In fact, as I recall, he was elected as a NATIONAL PARTY MP, then a Minister in a COALITION government, a government which only lasted the one term.
The political bias of the Costello Chaired 9 Entertainment is on full view – as always.
9 Entertainment should really be re-named the LIBERAL PARTY GAZETTE.
Imagine if Northe was a former ALP MP, and the coverage that would get in the media?
Taking a line thru the Ringwood MP and the publicity he is attracting.
@Arky says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 1:47 pm
@Catprog – linking to a 2015 article when the Coalition was in power and Labor was trying to mitigate the Coalition’s laws as best they could in Opposition isn’t the slam dunk argument you seem to think it is.
I added this because many people go all the way back to Rudd’s carbon tax where the Green’s were trying to mitigate what they saw as Labor’s bad policies. (Especially when some groups were callling it worse then nothing)
If you say 2015 is too far back are you also against people using Rudd’s carbon tax as evidence against the Greens?
Albo’s PR photographer seems to be on world record pace on this current trip…
But that’s my point, what’s happening in Gaza is actually much worse from a humanitarian perspective. I understand it’s not a competition, and this isn’t to say that what’s happening in Ukraine isn’t terrible. But the scale and intensity of the violence toward civilians is on an entirely different level, and the naked hypocrisy of unequivocal condemnation and sanctions in the one instance and lighting up our bloody landmarks and calling intentional war crimes “self defense” in the other is completely obscene.
Some facts that tankies are having difficulty assimilating about Ukraine, particularly when they throw around terms like ‘genocide’.
Ukraine did not deprive Russia of statehood.
Ukraine did not blockade Russia.
No element of Ukrainian politics has offered the thought that all the Russians should be pushed into the sea.
Ukraine did not cross the Russian border and indiscriminately murder around 1400 citizens before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Ukraine did not fire 5,000 missiles all over Russia before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are not, on a daily basis, firing rockets and mortars into Russia. Hesbollah is doing just that. Hamas only stopped when its bunkers, launch pads and munitions supplies were destroyed by Israeli bombers.
Ukraine does not hold Russian civilians as hostages.
Elements of the Russian army and civilian occupation forces are raping, torturing and murdering civilians.
Ukraine is not abducting Russian children. Russia is abducting Ukrainian children
Ukraine has lost destroyed, damaged or deserted over 100,000 buildings. ‘Collective punishment’ is not mentioned in this context by the tankies.
Ukraine has lost nearly 2,000 children killed.
Ukraine has lost a very large amount of its industries.
Ukraine has lost a very large part of its sovereign territory.
Russia last winter succeeded in severely curtailing or stopping altogether Ukraine access to energy, and is clearly planning so to do this winter. ‘Collective punishment’ is not mentioned in this context by the tankies.
Ukraine has lost, killed and wounded civilians, something like like 8,000 killed and around 20,000 wounded. (A key difference is that Russia routinely targets civilians per se.)
Ukraine has had around 12 million people either displaced internally or fled the country.
Ukraine has lost around 70,000 soldiers killed.
Ukraine has lost around 120,000 soldiers wounded.
Imagine if before Bakhmut was shelled to smithereens, the Russians built a huge wall around it, turned the water off and forbade anyone to leave.
Watermelonsays:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:15 pm
Though anyways, it’s not a contest! Bad things happening in the Middle East don’t make Russia’s actions any less bad. But if you want to compare, go compare. Or just do the sane thing and condemn Russia at least as harshly as you condemn what’s happening in Gaza.
But that’s my point, what’s happening in Gaza is actually much worse from a humanitarian perspective. I understand it’s not a competition, and this isn’t to say that what’s happening in Ukraine isn’t terrible. But the scale and intensity of the violence toward civilians is on an entirely different level, and the naked hypocrisy of unequivocal condemnation and sanctions in the one instance and lighting up our bloody landmarks and calling intentional war crimes “self defense” in the other is completely obscene.
———————-
1300 civilians murdered by Hamas and you support that.
It’s very timely and fortuitous for Albo’s personal polling that this opportunity to spend time with the POTUS popped up just after the referendum defeat.
‘Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:19 pm
Imagine if before Bakhmut was shelled to smithereens, the Russians built a huge wall around it, turned the water off and forbade anyone to leave.’
————————
Your beloved Russians are shining examples of humanity are they not?
We don’t have to ‘imagine’ your scenario.
It happened:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol
‘Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:21 pm
It’s very timely and fortuitous for Albo’s personal polling that this opportunity to spend time with the POTUS popped up just after the referendum defeat.’
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Gaslighting.
I don’t want anyone to die. But this was an operation launched from a ghetto by slaves imprisoned from birth. Ukraine and Russia are two states at war. The Palestinians are not a state, merely savages confined to a reservation in perpetuity.
Simplified Watermelon
Russians good; Ukrainians bad.
Hamas good; Israelis bad.
Regardless of the facts.
It’s very timely and fortuitous for Albo’s personal polling that this opportunity to spend time with the POTUS popped up just after the referendum defeat.
@Rex Douglas
Rex you should work for Sky news after dark they would agree with your argument. And you could be around like minded people.
Watermelon is a descendent of the Cossacks, blame the Jews for the pogroms they launched against them. Or maybe he’s channeling Julius Streicher. After all, the Nazis enjoyed killing Ukrainians almost as much as Stalin did.
Boerwar I am familiar with the Seige of Mariupol. It was a siege because it was the place where the literal Nazi Azov Brigades made their last stand. It was not a siege of 2 million civilians enclosed in a twenty mile by five mile prison with nowhere to flee and no water to drink.
I see you, Albo…
What started the Ukraine war was this: The Ukrainian government sent its forces across the border into Russia; killed many innocent Russians (including people enjoying a music festival) in cold blood; torched the homes of many Russians; and took other innocent Russians hostage. So whatever happened next, the Ukrainian government is at least partly responsible for the Russian response.
Wait… that is not Ukraine/Russia. It is somewhere else.
Yeah, I’m too hungover for Poll Bludger right now.
‘Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Boerwar I am familiar with the Seige of Mariupol. …’
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That’s strange. You have not mentioned it before. Half a million civilians forced out by a mix of starvation, and shelling. Many murdered during the exodus. City trashed. Four month siege.
But, but, but… Russians good; Ukrainians bad.
Mr Buckley is now cancelled, I assume…
AR
“Though anyways, it’s not a contest! Bad things happening in the Middle East don’t make Russia’s actions any less bad. But if you want to compare, go compare. Or just do the sane thing and condemn Russia at least as harshly as you condemn what’s happening in Gaza.”
Yes that is the critical point. I am opposed to the deliberate murder of unarmed civilians by any military force.
Therefore I see no contradiction in being opposed to all of the following:
– the Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially massacres in Bucha and Irpin, and bombardments of Bakhmut, Mariopol, Kherson, Odessa and so on
– The Hamas mass murder of over 1000 civilians in Israeli Kibbutzes and at a dance festival
– The Israeli bombardment of Gaza and almost inevitable deaths of over 4000 civilians and counting
All three are war crimes.
Integrity must have been tossing it up: to gaslight funding the minerals industry or to gaslight not enough public funding of the minerals industry.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:40 pm
‘Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Boerwar I am familiar with the Seige of Mariupol. …’
—————————
That’s strange. You have not mentioned it before. Half a million civilians forced out by a mix of starvation, and shelling. Many murdered during the exodus. City trashed. Four month siege.
But, but, but… Russians good; Ukrainians bad.
_____________________________________
When it comes to pure evil at the ends of a horseshoe, I think you will find Mr Curcurbit with his hands clinging to one end and his feet firmly planted on the other.
My god, at least they were allowed out, not shelled and starved behind an enormous bloody wall.
TPOF
It’s the pattern.
Socrates
– The Israeli bombardment of Gaza and almost inevitable deaths of over 4000 civilians and counting
________________________________________
Before assessing this as a war crime bear in mind the physical embedding of Hamas rockets and military among them. At what point does it become a war crime to attack someone hiding behind a human shield (and that includes babies and children).
I have spent the last 5 days attending the Uniting Church Queensland Synod meeting at Alexandra Headlands on the Sunshine Coast. I would like to share that during that time the delegates shared the grief over the loss of the Voice Referendum with indigenous delegates, heard from members of the Queensland Regional Council of the Uniting Aboriginal and Islander Christian Congress and engaged in “yarning circles” which encouraged active listening.
Further, throughout the proceedings our relationship, as a church, with and concern for the welfare of our indigenous members was palpable. In particular, each delegate, before they addressed the Synod in session, not only identified themselves but also acknowledge the traditional owners of the regions where they lived.
Personally, I had the opportunity of sitting with the highly educated, articulate and gentle “Aunty” the Rev. Dr. Roberta Stanley. I initiated the conversation by expressing my deep sorrow and disappointment over the results of last week’s referendum. What struck me was Roberta’s grace as she counselled me as to the way to move forward, highlighting the need to continue to listen to each other, without making assumptions or imposing “solutions” to perceived problems based on our own cultural perspective.
I also had breakfast with Ena, a church leader from Arakun. Although English was not Ena’s first language and I had difficulty understanding her, I soon discovered that we had a mutual friend.
For me not only was it a privilege to sit with and learn from my indigenous brothers and sisters in Christ, I found it cathartic to have an opportunity to express my grief and disappointment with members of our community most negatively impacted by the “No” vote.
Watermelon advancing Hamas lies and propaganda again. He probably still maintains, along with Hamas, and without any evidence at all, that the incredible loss of life at Al-Ahli hospital was an intentional Israeli bomb, rather than a misfiring fundamentalist Muslim crazy rocket aimed at Israeli civilians.
Ronzy @ 2.58
Thank you for this report. Yes, it was terribly sad and terribly affirming of the lack of consideration ranging to outright racism among those who voted no. It’s a shame that some people on this site continue to work that loss for all it is worth for narrow political ends.
‘Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 2:54 pm
That’s strange. You have not mentioned it before. Half a million civilians forced out by a mix of starvation, and shelling.
My god, at least they were allowed out, not shelled and starved behind an enormous bloody wall.’
———————————
They were shelled, subject to starvation and to interdiction of medical supplies.
For four months.
The whole point of the Russian siege of Mariupol was to FORCE them out: leave or die.
Just in case they thought they were lucky when they were forced to leave, they were shelled during evacuations for good measure.
We don’t know but Israel possibly has it in mind to force Gazans out of Gaza altogether and into Egypt perhaps using your preferred Mariopol model.
Doubtless you would have an opinion on that.
But, always remember your No 1 riding instruction: Hamas good; Israel bad. Russia good; Ukraine bad.
I’m already getting on the wrong side of the moratorium TPOF so I won’t go into the details, but you’re correct. They will never allow an independent international investigation, so we will never know for sure, but I 100% maintain that anyone swallowing Israel’s utterly transparent lies about that hospital bombing is a credulous moron.
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3:07 pm
I’m already getting on the wrong side of the moratorium TPOF so I won’t go into the details, but you’re correct. They will never allow an independent international investigation, so we will never know for sure, but I 100% maintain that anyone swallowing Israel’s utterly transparent lies about that hospital bombing is a credulous moron.
__________________________________________
You constantly breach the moratorium. This site would be better if you were banned for that reason, not to mention your justification for the murder of babies and the rape of women and the kidnapping of civilians. As for “lies”, there is a huge amount of forensic evidence from respected organisations around the world pointing to the misfiring violent muslim fundamentalist rocket as the cause. There is not a shred of forensic evidence that Israel was the cause.
But you go on taking the side of hideous religiously motivated murderers and rapists – no questions asked – and I will continue to point out where your sympathies really lie (hint – it’s not with innocent Palestinians because you wouldn’t be defending the arseholes using them as human shields).
Trump is a very real chance of becoming POTUS again. By hook or by being a crook.
The moderates will be broken. Wont they? They always break. it is part of the reason the GOP have shifted so far right.
Ronzy 2.58 pm
Good to hear from you. Don’t let the extreme atheists in this place bully your voice away.
I see TPOF and friends continuing to breach the moratorium. Very disrespectful to the owner of this blog.
TPOF says:
You constantly breach the moratorium. This site would be better if you were banned for that reason
____________
The same could be said for you. And I think Watermelon is often wrong and a bit foolish at times, at least he is not abusive and offensive unlike you.
Why does anyone respond to Watermelon?
This person represents the views of a very small minority and is clearly a zealot and unable to understand some very basic facts.
I mean go for it, if you have the time but do you really think he/she is able to ever change his/her mind.
Watermelon is a complete right off, all we can hope for is he/she is sane enough to contribute to society and other than that is a kind hearted person in real life.
Albanese should not go to China while Xi’s trade punishment lobster ban is in place.
rex and Nath
To make it clear, I never, ever comment on the current situation in the Middle East except in response to Watermelon and his mates – which clearly include the two of you.
Rex – you never give a shit about the respect for the owner of this blog until I weigh in. I have never seen you complain about breaching the moratorium when Watermelon spreads his Putin and Hamas loving poison.
You are just a hypocrite.
As for psychonath, enough said.
Edited to add that I have and will continue to respect the moratorium as long as others do. I will never ever be the first to break it.
They might have to swing past the Outback Steakhouse for “take out” on the way back to the embassy/hotel.
Anthony Albanese’s state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden at the White House will go ahead, but as a subdued affair
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-25/albanese-biden-state-dinner-washington/103018246
On ‘human shields’
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, October 25, 2023 at 3:22 pm
On ‘human shields’
_________________________________________
There is no equivalent of B’tselem anywhere in the Arab world or in the theocratic muslim world. They would be dead in five minutes.
TPOF
‘You constantly breach the moratorium. This site would be better if you were banned for that reason, …’
Personally, I think this site would be better if you weren’t on it for any reason. I think you are as offensive as the language you use.
And I’m sure you think this site would be better if I wasn’t here.
But in the words of the greatest rock and roll band in the world, the Rolling Stones – You can’t always get what you want.
Ronzy, well said.
Sigh. Pollbludger before dark is worse than after dark at present.
It is absolute bullshit that Russia a white knight champions against neo-Nazism. Rather, they are dark knight champions for neo Nazism. Take Wagner PMC:
“Various elements of the Wagner Group have been linked to far-right extremism, including white supremacy and neo-Nazism. Some founding members of Wagner belong to the far-right ultranationalist Russian Imperial Movement. Wagner’s first commander, Dmitry Utkin, was reportedly a neo-Nazi and had several Nazi tattoos, greeted subordinates by saying “Heil!”, worn a Wehrmacht field cap around the unit’s training grounds, and occasionally signed his name with the two lightning bolt insignia of the Nazi SS.
In 2021, the Foreign Policy report noted the origin of the name “Wagner” to be unknown. Others say the group’s name comes from Utkin’s own call sign “Wagner”, reportedly after the German composer Richard Wagner, which Utkin is said to have chosen due to his passion for the Third Reich (Wagner being Adolf Hitler’s favorite composer). Members of Wagner Group said Utkin was a Rodnover, a follower of Slavic native faith. A Wagner sub-group, “Rusich”, was founded by self-proclaimed neo-Nazi Alexey Milchakov and is open about its far-right ideology. Wagner members have also left neo-Nazi graffiti on the battlefield, such as swastikas and the SS emblem.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group#Far-right_elements
Moscow leaned heavily upon Wagner PMC all through its 2014-2022 infiltration of Donetsk and Luhansk, and more famously in its capture of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk. So much for Putin’s pretext of ‘denazifying’ Ukraine. If he was serious about denazification, he should have started with his own civil and military society. Oh wait, he didn’t end up tackling neo-Nazism there: he gleefully recruited it.