The Courier-Mail will have a Queensland state poll through at 10am local time, presumably from YouGov, which the paper has been promoting with its trademark subtlety. Alongside the usual bilge about how the results will rock the state to its foundations, we are informed the poll includes questions on how respondents might vote if Labor changed leaders.
In what’s likely to be a fallow period for federal polling post-referendum, Roy Morgan turned a few heads with its weekly voting intention result, which is the first poll this term to credit the Coalition with a two-party lead, by a bare 50.5-49.5 margin, after Labor led 54-46 a week previously. However, the result is in large part down to an anomalous flow of respondent-allocated preferences: the primary votes of Labor 32% (down three), Coalition 36% (up two), Greens 14% (steady) and One Nation 4.5% are all in the ballpark of the 2022 election result, and in fact convert to 53-47 in Labor’s favour if preference flows from the election are applied. The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, from last Monday through to Sunday, from a sample of 1383.
JWS Research has released its monthly True Issues survey of issue salience, which finds 56% nominating the cost of living when asked unprompted to identify their three most important issues, shooting up from 43% in June. Housing and interest rates, health and aged care and environment and climate change are little changed in second through to fourth place, with health levelling off after a long post-pandemic slide. An index measure of the federal government’s performance is down to 48, after the four previous readings since the 2022 election came in at 52 or 53. The survey was conducted
With most of the votes from the referendum now in, here’s a ranked listing of how the pollsters performed:
Geez, the current aggravate polling in the UD looks pretty grim. Trump (as the presumptive Republican candidate) verses … anyone really … as the Democrat candidate sees him losing narrowly against Biden on some polls aggregates, but winning on most others … and absolutely smashing anyone else.
There is no ‘managing out’ Biden in favour of some wunderkind alternative.
nath,
I’m observing the moratorium too. When you have to compete against someone who denies recent history and the genesis of the issue, you’ll never win.
Ditto wrt AUKUS. There’s just so much fanciful thinking, confirmation bias, and lack of political nous going down here about it that it’s pointless trying to make a realistic comparison between the two options on the table.
Most of the Toyota adverts on TV seem to be for used Toyotas, rather than new models. Meanwhile other manufacturers are promoting their new models including EVs.
Personally I ‘m quite happy with our 3.5 year old Corolla hybrid but I don’t like how Toyota is trying to influence governments to prop up the company by delaying stricter emissions standards.
Mrmoney@6:10
As far as I can tell Assange is in exactly the same position he would have been if he faced the sexual assault charges. Except, he has spent the last 11 years in either self or judiciary imposed incarceration.
The charges in Sweden, of which the stealthing was the less serious, would have led to a few years at most if convicted. The UK was then in the EU, so that Assange would have been returned to the UK if the US sought extradition. I suspect he would have been bailed, while the extradition was being decided, as he would have had no previous history of absconding.
And I’m saying that Bandt isn’t saying anything about what Hamas would do in the event of a ceasefire, and he shouldn’t be, because that question is completely irrelevant to whether or not there should be a ceasefire, except in the minds of assholes who believe in collective punishment.
That poll was several thousand murdered kids ago already, so watch what happens from here.
Note that I was referring to the Democratic Party Base, that is, the young, minority and progressive voters, the “Black Lives Matter” type of voters, typically the most reliable and dedicated voters and volunteers. They are decidedly not going to turn out to re-elect a President culpable for genocide.
Biden has already had a ten percentage point drop in approval from Democrats since this thing started. Don’t think that he’s going to reverse that by making speeches about how the appalling numbers of Palestinians dead are “fake news”. For many “woke” Democrats, genocide is simply a deal-breaker. The specter of Trump loses its power, because if this is what’s on offer from Biden, seriously, what’s the difference.
If they don’t move fast Toyota will soon be pulling the chain, another nokia. VW about to abandon selling ICE vehicles in Norway because there is no demand. EVs at 35% in Germany. The tipping point is getting close
I am sick to death of Watermelon’s blind avoidance of the role of Hamas murderers, kidnappers, child killers and rapists.
Children are dying in Gaza because his heroes in Hamas are hiding behind them. Because they think children are expendable in the cause of fundamentalist Muslim control of the Middle East. They call them martyrs because in their sick minds every child who dies is dying in the cause of muslim fundamentalism.
Hamas “fighters” are psychopaths, cowards, murderers, rapists and if Watermelon wants to sweep their crimes under the carpet – like so many nations in the UN General Assembly- then he is a supporter of them.
And I will keep posting here about the appalling situation in Israel and Gaza as long as the holocaust denying Watermelon does it.
Your provenance for this is Hamas, whose claims you should by now have the sense to be skeptical about. For such reasons was the moratorium imposed. And will henceforth be reimposed — its pathologies have snuck back in under what’s purported to be an argument about Adam Bandt. Don’t whinge about it either.
William Bowe says:
Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 7:37 pm
That poll was several thousand murdered kids ago already
Your provenance for this is Hamas, whose claims you should by now have the sense to be skeptical about. For such reasons was the moratorium imposed. And will henceforth be reimposed — it has pathologies have snuck back in under what’s purported to be an argument about Adam Bandt. Don’t whinge about it either
________________________________________
William
If you want to snip my last post, I have no objections. I am sick to death of Watermelon finding various ways of sneaking his propaganda into this site and so I push back so he does not get away with it. I will always respect your moratorium as long as others (especially Watermelon) do.
Thanks TPOF — I don’t particularly blame you for that post, which preceded the reassertion of the moratorium.
Thanks again William. Your reimposed moratorium has again saved me from responding when it’s probably good sense not to do so.
As probably one of the few commenters who has visited both Israel and Palestine, I have my views on this which I keep to myself – and therefore fully support the moratorium on leaving this blog free to concentrate on matters Psephology.
The latest US IPSOS polling has some useful demographic breakdown of the leading contenders
About 5 minutes in..
https://youtu.be/fSEnnUYp7pA?si=SrcFiUonO24TjCpd
The only comment I am going to say regarding the Middle East is I am open to different outcomes as long as the bloody Judean People’s Front don’t get their way! Splitters!
I’m reminded of “The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas” by Ursula K. Le Guin.
I loved “The Ones who walk away from Omelas”. Studied it in philosophy at college.
Apparently Linda Burney is on the short list for GG next year. Sky News said this would be a most “cynical” move by Labor. They didn’t mention if the consequent by-election would be in play.
Sigil @ #653 Sunday, October 29th, 2023 – 8:22 pm
Seminal for me – as was her The Left Hand of Darkness. More important than Lord of the Rings.
Also:
“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.”
[Kung Fu Monkey — Ephemera, blog post, March 19, 2009]”
― John Rogers
Eddie Jones has been ‘boned’
Inevitable sprocket
@rhwombat
Haha!
Yes, I read that quote recently. Good fun.
I was totally a heroic fantasy kid because I started reading LoTR in primary and that was what I stuck with hehe.
The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant the Unbeliever as I was eating my way through my High School’s Fantasy section when I was twelve, was not that much fun tho.
I mean, if that’s what he’s into, who are we to judge?
Watermelon can take his pro Hamas crap somewhere else, the good people of William’s blog don’t need that garbage here.
Is there a Newspoll tonight?
If so, I predict 53-47 lead to Labor.
Mavis 9.01 am
‘In a gripping match, the Springboks have beaten the All Blacks 12-11 in the final of the Rugby World Cup’
I really can’t get into rugby union even though on a sleepless night I looked it up and learnt the rules in preparation for this World Cup. Games just seem to be won by penalties and who has the best goal kicker. I watched the 2003 final and Australia were beaten by one man, Jonny Wilkinson. It also seems to be, in Australia at least, mainly followed by private school boys.
I quite like rugby league and remember staying up late a very very long time ago to watch a test game against England. After a really tight game, Mal Maninga ran the length of the ground to win the game. I was really impressed.
I actually got really excited about Murdoch setting up an Adelaide team. I even went and bought an Adelaide Rams wind cheater, which I still wear and usually results in people’s confusion or occasional laughter. Most people hate Murdoch because of his right wing media empire. I hate him because of the Adelaide Rams. The AFL can support a shit team like the Gold Coast but some billionaire wouldn’t support the Rams.
Oh well, there’s always the Glenelg Tigers and the Adelaide Crows.
“The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas” to me brings to mind our offshore detention regime.
It also seems to be, in Australia at least, mainly followed by private school boys.
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It has become a bit like that.
Then again- private schools have taken over AFL cradles.
Just because I can’t stop talking about religion and politics.
A long time ago, I was walking down the main street of Glenelg at Easter and came across a group of young enthusiastic Christians performing a Passion Play. Jesus was being flogged in front of Pontius and I yelled out “free Barrabas.” Jesus burst out laughing.
That’s probably an inside joke but I’m just trying to lighten the mood.
At the Cranlana Centre for Ethical Leadership they get prospective future leaders of the public service to read this book. They don’t explain why, but the penny drops. If you don’t have the utilitarian heart for “tough decisions”, you need to walk away.
The Age 28/10
Truth is, all the sea creatures along this remote coast are living wonders. Pods of orcas, known as killer whales, have visited in the past couple of weeks.
Shortly after the orcas were seen hunting around Bridgewater Bay, a great white shark washed up on the beach, chomped clean in two. Orcas, wolves of the sea, enjoy a meal of shark liver.
They have no shortage of menu.
In a few weeks, the coast will be torn by south-easterly winds, forcing the surface of the sea out to the west.
To compensate, chilled water rushes up from the deep through the canyons of the continental shelf, where the Australian land mass finally tore from Antarctica about 30 million years ago.
The chilled water of the upwelling brings to the surface clouds of phytoplankton and trillions of tiny krill. It sets off a riot. Gannets and other seabirds wheel and dive on schools of fish gathering for the nutrients that suddenly fill the waters.
Blue whales, the largest creatures to inhabit the Earth, follow to feast on the krill.
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Tony Wright definitely loves Portland and he is right about the chilled water during the Bonney Upwelling.
Went for a surf down there this morning whilst visiting my parents. 4:3 O’Neill wetsuit and still was bloody freezing.
Upwelling Festival next weekend if any Melbournites want a long weekend away with Cup day on the Tues. Street parade, market etc and you might see Orcas and blue whales from the cliffs at Cape Bridgewater.
”A long time ago, I was walking down the main street of Glenelg at Easter and came across a group of young enthusiastic Christians performing a Passion Play. Jesus was being flogged in front of Pontius and I yelled out “free Barrabas.” Jesus burst out laughing.”
Oh dear, someone’s going to Hell.
But seriously, I’m going to memorise that and look to an opportunity to retell it.
Some chat here about crappy crass and ugly lyrics of modern music. Yeah. They do seem to sing about sex a lot.
Fwiw, Talking Heads have done some rare joint interviews recently to support the rerelease of their old concert interview – Stop Making Sense. They can be awkward interviewees and Stephen Colbert isn’t a great interviewer – but he did ok here. It is in 3 parts. Very important band. Their music seems timeless to me.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4-2CfqA9P0Y
@Watermelon
*sigh*
First, it’s a short story, not a book.
Second, I’m not sure what your point is.
On matters psephological, there are two Australian issues I have typed plenty of words on here in recent weeks – AUKUS and the need for a national vehicle emissions/EV policy.
My question is – has anyone seen any recent opinion polling on the attitude of Australians to one or both?
On AUKUS it was widely accepted when announced in the context of a trade war with China. Now that is receding how is support looking? Is Labor on an electoral winner or loser?
Same with EVs and emissions. Morrison thought he could win votes bagging them. Is that still true? What policies are wanted by the majority? More utes or cheaper EVs?
The point Sigil is that the merit of torturing a child for the greater good is part of the formal ethical training you receive in the public service leadership track. And yea I know it’s a short story.
Watermelon says:
Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 10:10 pm
The point Sigil is that the merit of torturing a child for the greater good is part of the formal ethical training you receive in the public service leadership track. And yea I know it’s a short story.
________________
If that is your takeaway, I am quite worried about the future of our public service.
Sacrifice the APS code of conduct when necessary for the “greater good”? And let’s not stop there….
A lot of people talk about China invading Taiwan, the US getting involved, and should we join in?
I’m not too worried. The US are never going to send ground troops into a meat grinder so this will be a war fought between air forces and navies. So, we send our navy off to join the US but by the time they are passing the Philippines both China and US fleets are resting at the bottom of the South China Sea. Having done our bit, we turn our ships around and go home.
Regarding AUKUS, there are two things I will never live to see.
One is the completion of the North South corridor and the other is nuclear submarines.
That short story seems like an appropriate story to use in ethics considerations. Part of any ethics training includes the consideration of means and ends an where boundaries can be set.
I doubt the story was used to train future public service managers that child torture was appropriate where the greater society good ensured.
It’s not about the code of conduct. It’s about things like locking up refugees in offshore facilities to deter boat arrivals. Or raising interest rates so inflation will comes down even if it means thousands lose their jobs. Or cutting payments to single mothers so the deficit doesn’t blow out. Or negotiating higher emissions targets to protect industrial output. Or prosecuting whistleblowers to preserve espionage methods. That type of thing. If you can’t crack eggs, you’re not fit for omelette leadership, and you should walk away instead. I found its inclusion in the premier course on ethical leadership to be very illuminating, and those familiar with the story may also.
Looks like no Newspoll tonight. Probably next Sunday.
Essential Media and Roy Morgan should drop a poll this Tuesday. Essential never updated their primary figures from their last poll on 17/10 so not sure how reliable they are anymore. The Guardian usually sources their data. YouGov possibly on Thursday. Redbridge is well overdue for their National October Poll, their last being the September National Poll issued 6/9.
Rex Douglas 3.08 pm
‘If ever there was an opportune time for Australia to strategically take a more neutral and independent position in world affairs it is now.’
That ship sailed a long time ago. It started seriously leaking in Vietnam, was sinking in Iraq, and was sunk by Afghanistan.
Watermelon says:
Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 10:44 pm
“Sacrifice the APS code of conduct when necessary for the “greater good”? And let’s not stop there….”
It’s not about the code of conduct. It’s about things like locking up refugees in offshore facilities to deter boat arrivals. Or raising interest rates so inflation will comes down even if it means thousands lose their jobs. Or cutting payments to single mothers so the deficit doesn’t blow out. Or negotiating higher emissions targets to protect industrial output. Or prosecuting whistleblowers to preserve espionage methods. That type of thing. If you can’t crack eggs, you’re not fit for omelette leadership, and you should walk away instead. I found its inclusion in the premier course on ethical leadership to be very illuminating, and those familiar with the story may also.
____________
Your explanation does not induce any confidence. At best, your eggs are scrambled. If that is your takeaway, I can only hope you walked away. Ideally from the APS altogether.
Watermelon 3.34 pm
They all hate you but I love you. Don’t tell my wife.
Just joking. She lurks and already knows.
I did love cracking those eggs, but the money at BAE was too good to refuse
Things are getting hot for Russians involved in their invasion effort against Ukraine, both in occupied Ukrainian territory and back in RF itself:
“A fire broke out in early hours today at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, local emergency authorities said, after social media reports of powerful blasts.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/29/russia-ukraine-war-live-belarus-lukashenko-talks-fighting
“There have been reports of explosions near Chornomorske in Russian-occupied Crimea, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported late on Oct. 28.”
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-occupied-crimea/
Russian losses, 22-28 October 2023:
Personnel: 5,250 (750 per day)
Tanks: 94 (13 per day)
ACV’s: 127 (18 per day)
Artillery systems: 156 (22 per day)
MLRS’s: 9 (1 per day)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/22/7425162/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/29/7426210/
Putin can end this any time he wants to, with no loss of his own country’s territory, by simply calling off his needlessly destructive invasion. These Russian losses are entirely on him.
Demographic context for my last post:
Live births in Russia, 2022: 1,304,090
Ie, about 3,573 per day, male and female.
Ie, about 1,786 males born per day.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1010528/number-of-live-births-in-russia/
A loss of 750 soldiers per day represents 42% of males born per day in Russia. Not good for Russia, I’d have thought. Russians need to think about what Putin is really bequeathing them with his needlessly destructive invasion.
As someone who grew up on LeGuin, the point of the Omelas story is not an endorsement. It’s an ethical conundrum. I know nothing about the Cranlana centre or APS training but I’m sure they also use the trolley problem in ethics training, and that is not actually an endorsement of running people over with trains.
The Omelas story is of course also a Jesus parable (as the whole basis of Christianity is Jesus being crucified and suffering to atone for the sins of man), and I recentishly saw a Star Trek Strange New Worlds episode that did Omelas practically to the letter (spoiler alert, the good ethical people of Starfleet side with those who walk away).
free Barrabas… – Why didn’t you twy Fweeing Wodger while you was there?
William Bowe says:
Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 5:00 pm
The obvious conclusion is for the Dems to manage out Joe, right ..?
Why would that have any bearing on Trump’s popularity relative to the other candidates for the Republican nomination?
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And furthermore, those who intend to vote for Trump will do so regardless of who the Democratic nominee is. Whether it’s Biden or anybody else is immaterial to these people.
If wavering voters are happy to cast their lot for a candidate found guilty of rape, who has totally and publicly trashed US democratic norms and institutions, who led a coup against a fairly elected President and who is currently facing trials on dozens of various charges across state and federal courts, then the name, age or gender of the Democratic nominee was always going to be irrelevant.
Boerwar says:
Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 5:02 pm
Toyota dragging the chain.
Again.
Oh what a feeling…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/29/toyota-sales-chief-says-evs-impractical-for-australian-drivers-as-tesla-retaliates-against-cynical-attack
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Agreed, Toyota have never been serious about EVs and likely never will be.
I note the attempts to take a leaf out of Morrison’s book.
Follow the FF dollars.
Just because Toyota are incapable of building desirable EVs that Australians want doesn’t mean that other EV automakers can’t, as exhibited by annually growing sales. This is exactly why China is successfully filling the vacuum.
New thread.