Monday miscellany: Liberal preselection and NSW redistribution latest (open thread)

Dissension in the ranks among Tasmania’s federal Liberals, plus developments in Bennelong and North Sydney.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll is due this week, although that will be less interesting than it was if it’s decided to stop publishing voting intention numbers, as was the case with last fortnight’s poll. RedBridge Group has also been in the field, with results potentially to be published this week. Other than that:

• Nine Newspapers reports Gavin Pearce, Liberal member for Braddon in north-western Tasmania, is withholding his preselection nomination until his electoral neighbour, Bass MP Bridget Archer, is expelled from the party. Archer crossed the floor last week to vote against Peter Dutton’s motion for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities, which the hitherto indulgent Dutton described as a “mistake”. The report says four other conservative MPs are backing Pearce’s course, with one saying there was “a chance party officials would side with him”, while acknowledging this would likely mean Archer retaining her seat as an independent.

• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that Scott Yung, who came within 69 votes of defeating Chris Minns in Kogarah amid a backlash against state Labor among the Chinese community at the 2019 state election (UPDATE: It is noted in comments that Yung merely came within 69 votes of Minns on the primary vote, and that the final two-party margin was actually 1.8%)), is set to become the Liberal candidate for Bennelong after the withdrawal of rival nominee Craig Chung. Silmalis reports Yung had the backing of Peter Dutton, whereas Chung was favoured by moderates. Jerome Laxale gained the seat for Labor in 2022, the party’s second ever win in the seat after Maxine McKew’s famous victory over John Howard in 2007.

• Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves. The matter could be complicated by the current redistribution process, in which the seat could be radically redrawn or potentially abolished.

• Further to the above, responses to the call for public suggestions for the redistribution of New South Wales seats will be published on the Australian Electoral Commission site today, presumably to include the wish lists of the major parties and other interested actors.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

427 comments on “Monday miscellany: Liberal preselection and NSW redistribution latest (open thread)”

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  1. Abbott and co have been allowed to get away with calling themselves centre right by the Australian media even the Guardian, forever. It’s less true now than it ever was, clearly. Just like the thing about hyper progressivism is bullshit and probably made certain suspects here choke on their cereal at the very idea of associating Albo with any kind of progressivism.

    It’s all part of their very successful campaign at applying their labels to everything which the media has been hugely complicit in all along, unfortunately.

  2. As for this Lambert character, IF she gets preselected, that’s the time (and not earlier) to have people put it to Dutton to disavow the candidate and her untrue claims that the seat was “stolen”.

  4. Re Socrates @9:16.

    The demonstration gets prominent coverage in the Guardian (UK Edition).
    It is not mentioned on The Times’ landing page.

  6. I wonder who else is attending the RW gabfest in London. A list of any US Republicans would be interesting as to their pro or anti Trump/MAGA stance.

  7. Bennelong Lurker

    Putting aside any debate about AUKUS and sub origin, Downer said the quiet bit out loud:
    “ I don’t think the existing federal parliament or the next one is going to make a decision on this, but I think down the years, in the end, the federal government will decide that this is just too expensive, and they will buy the submarines from overseas.”

    And the distant timeline:
    “ Peter Malinauskas and [SA opposition leader] David Speirs will be well and truly retired by the time this project comes about.”

    So the Libs all along were planning to first stall and then kill off any SSN building jobs in Australia. He wants Australia to pay to expand the UK shipbuilding industry so we can export the jobs?? Whereas Labor is just planning to stall the jobs.

    This issue came up in SA back in March.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-14/what-aukus-means-for-submarine-construction-in-sa/102092554

  9. Havent been tracking PB this past week but a quick viewing of the thread this morning triggered a few 2 cent thoughts.

    1/ The closing out of VP Pence’s election campaign will have absolutely zero impact on the outcome of the Republican primary. Funnily enough we watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession last night, Conner was discussing whether he should spend another $100 million to maintain his 1% approval rating in the polls, “to stay in the conversation”. IF and only IF Pence’s campaign suspension was the start of a concerted effort by the Republican party to winnow out the field will there be any impact, as the split primary moves towards a coalescence behind a single centre right candidate, Hailey maybe?

    2/ The Teals forming a party would be the death of their political careers. The reasoning seems clear enough but happy to discuss further.

    3/ The Tas Libs probably would not support ousting Bridget Archer, a proven election winner is a proven election winner. If the federal Lib party stepped in the Tas voter’s would kick the Libs out of Braddon just to spite them

  10. The demonstration is also not mentioned in The Sun (UK), which seems to be mostly about Matthew Perry, celebrity trivia, crime and attractive women in swimwear, so a bit like Sydney’s Sunday Mirror c. 1975. There is some war coverage which looks strongly pro-Israel.

  11. The ASPI report that recommends cutting back on Hunter frigates is not bad. It covers the whole question of what Australia’s naval we need to deliver it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/australia-urged-to-cut-back-45bn-hunter-class-frigate-project-as-part-of-bold-revamp

    The report makes the important point that, quite apart from the cost blowouts and delay, the Hunter frigate is the wrong kind of ship. With an uncertain future, we need more general purpose warships to defend Australia, that can also defend themselves, not specialist ASW units that rely on being in a task force of other ships for survival. There may not be other ships around in an uncertain future.

    Yes a lot of the naval acquisition decisions in the past 20 years have been terrible. That includes the Rudd and Gillard governments.

  12. The Liberals, at least at the Federal level, haven’t been a Centre-Right party for many years. It contains Centre-Right elements, for example Malcolm Turnbull (still in the Party as far as I know) but their voice is muted. The Liberals are more moderate at State level, at least in NSW and probably also SA and Tas, but right-wing in Qld, Vic and WA.

    It’s not as extreme as the US Republicans, whose centre of gravity seems to be close to Far Right, but they’re moving that way. It seems to be to the Right of the UK Conservatives.

  14. Steve

    You are right about the time since the liberals were actually centre-right.

    Hee in SA the Libs were more moderate but an organised block of far right religious is moving in and trying to control the State branch. They are spreading.

  15. The Tas Lib government are now being held hostage by the libertarian feelings of one of their ex parliamentary members.

    There is a proposal to review the levy current collected by councils to help in fuel reduction fire management. Now in minority the ability for the Libs to put through any meaningful changes to revenue collection is severely hampered by their ex-members.

    Reading through John Tucker’s comments they dont really make any sense as the proposal would see farmers actually paying less. File this one under the cost of managing climate change

    The Mercury: https://archive.md/8Yefp

  17. Morning all.

    A couple of points before i really gear up for a busy day:

    1. Latika is officially the London Correspondent for 9-Faix. Although many newsworthy local events – like yesterday’s large pro Palestinian rally in London seem to fall well behind reportage of pseudo tory events like the love-in that has a bunch of Australian conservative ex politicians in attendance. She also likes reporting on UK tory political machinations, and occasionally mention the British Labour Party and anything out of Europe that is anti chi-comm. in her spare time, 9-Faix allows to run commentary on Australian politics – usually something liberal staffer gossip related. Her position is a complete indulgence, as her work simply lacks anything of real significance out of either the Uk or Europe more generally.

    2. Socrates – i actually disagree with your take on cutting back the hunter class build.

    In my view the current problems with the program do not lie with the planned build of ships 7-9 in the program, but with the build of the first three boats. The class may not be fit for purpose, and the development costs to make a poor design work are astronomical. Those development costs will all be front loaded into the first in class ships.

    There are no cost savings on cutting the last three, because those ships are likely to be build on a program that’s old have – finally – matured into something approaching cost-effective.

    My take out is this: if the problems are as bad as they appear, and we don’t need such a degree of ASW capability we should simply scrap the whole class altogether and simply build 6 more Hobart class AWDs – which have excellent ASW capabilities anyway – but install the Australian build AESAR array that the ANZACs currently have – which is superior to the american radar in our existing Hobarts.

    After committing to another 6 AWDs, these could be complimented by building six light frigates/missile corvettes (in lieu of more Arafuras); and

    The RAN could then arrange with the US and UK for a joint ‘AUKUS’ program that would combine the Brits Type 83 and US’s FFG-X programs for us to start receiving what we really want in the early 2040s – namely a large surface combatant with 100+ VL missile tubes and excellent ASW capabilities as well.

    At the moment we appear to be trying to square the circle – and putting 12,000 of kit onto a hull that is very unstable past 8,000 tonne. If ultimately we want a 12,000 ship then that’s what we should order – and in the meantime ‘make do’ with 6-9 Hobart’s plus 6 light frigates replacing our 8 ANZACs.

  18. Socrates @ 9.30 am:
    Thank you.
    I have not the knowledge to enter into the AUKUS/ submarine discussion but I agree that Downer was saying the quiet bit out aloud this morning. I look forward to reading any other comments that this interview might elicit from those PBers with a deeper understanding /interest in the matter.

  19. The ‘Adelaide Advertiser’ has listed all the Lower House MPs who own more than one property. Of the 47 Lower House MPs, 14 own 2, and 10 own 3 or more. State Liberal opposition leader, David Speirs, owns 14 properties.

    I’m assuming these numbers are indicative of the rest of the country.

    This at a time when a large proportion of the population can’t afford to buy a home and young people in particular have been locked out of the market.

    It explains why politicians don’t seem to be much interested in rental affordability or renters’ rights at a time when Landlord scum are gouging.

    It’s nice to know our elected representatives are investing in the poor to top up their fat politician’s pay cheques.

    And yes, I know not all renters are poor but most poor people are renters.

  21. Thanks Alpha for pix – Gosh. Daleks. Are they still around? Thought they had left the U.K. and gone somewhere else. What next – Davros will make an appearance

    Victoria says:
    Monday, October 30, 2023 at 10:08 am
    Meanwhile I’m wondering how long Mike Johnson the new speaker is going to last in his role?

    Weeks or months. Lol!

    Answer – Months, if he blocks the money bill on Nov.17, and forces the gov’t to shut down.
    Weeks – if he puts forward another C.R. funding bill & it gets passed.

  26. To date the only person suggesting shellbell might be abolished is shellbell.

    What does shellbell know about shellbell the rest of us don’t know?

    Is this a guilty conscience I see before me?

    Bludgers are increasingly seeking answers.

  27. Further to my last post:

    We have presently six Arafura Class Offshore Patrol Vessels in various stages of construction. The decision to move from the smaller ‘onshore patrol vessels’ to the large Offshore ones remain valid. However there is still a need for the smaller vessels for border patrol and customs work. The Cape Class is used by both Border Force and the RAN in this role.

    Therefore, it seems to me feasible to cap the final order for Arafura class OSV ships to eight – with the last two capable of undertaking anti mine operations, and all of them eventually being ‘upgunned’ to carry a four canister naval Strike missile armament, a multipurpose 30-35mm CIWS-surface targeting cannon (in leu of the missing main gun) and also a light torpedo launcher. The Arafuras are meant to be able to take a towed sonar array in a shipping container as part of its planned modular capability, and also drone helicopters that can deploy a dipping array and light torpedos. Thus equipped, the Arafuras would be a very capable adjunct weapon platform to use as part of a taskforce with larger surface vessels.

    The remaining six planned Arafuras could be scrapped in favour of a light frigate/heavy corvette (95-105M in length at the waterline and coming in at around 2,500 tonnes) that is capable of landing a medium sized helos, equipped with a full garage, sonar array, and enough VL capability (perhaps 16 tactical launch cells, and 8 to 12 strike length cells) to complement the larger surface fleet. Both the Spanish and Germans have mature platforms ready to sell us now.

  28. You would be mistaken for thinking differently if you listen to the Herald Sun, The age or the blow hards from 3aw. Lol!

    ————

    Victoria now has the best performing economy in the nation while momentum is building in the west.
    That’s according to the latest State of the States report from CommSec, which says strong economic activity, solid retail spending and business investment catapulted Victoria to the top of the list for the first time in more than a year.

  31. Embattled Pollbludger commenter shellbell had gone to ground on Monday, as questions swirled about their future role on the popular* blog.

    Mystery surrounds shellbell’s plaintive cry “I don’t want to be abolished” earlier on Monday morning, with the respected* commenter failing to explain the catalyst for their plea.

    Shellbell has been contacted for comment^.

    * citation needed
    ^ kind of

  33. Is it pedantic to point out that Daleks are not AI but organically based, being the engineered (by Davros) evolution of the Kelad species.

  34. Andrew Earlwood

    “2. Socrates – i actually disagree with your take on cutting back the hunter class build.
    …
    My take out is this: if the problems are as bad as they appear, and we don’t need such a degree of ASW capability we should simply scrap the whole class altogether and simply build 6 more Hobart class AWDs – which have excellent ASW capabilities anyway – but install the Australian build AESAR array that the ANZACs currently have – which is superior to the american radar in our existing Hobarts.”

    No argument on the capability – if it was up to me we would have built 12 Hobarts in the first place. They could have been upgraded in the second run of six with more VLS and new radar (see below).

    However I should flag that people I am contact with here who work on the Hunter build are very worried that if it is cancelled there will be no actual construction in ASC for several years unless Navantia are ready for an immediate start. Given the OPV has already been sent to Perth and ASC sub construction killed off for a decade a start up delay would unemploy several thousand people here for several years. And/or we would then have to recruit and start training a new generation of shipbuilders.

    Even the existing Hobart design will need ordering of long lead items (engines, AEGIS, radar) that can take several years to receive before construction starts. The AEGIS and radar might be able to be nicked from items ordered for Hunter, but the engines are sure to be unique to that design. That takes years.

    If a joint Spanish/ASC build for the first batch of extra Hobarts is possible with the long lead time bits (engines, CMS module) able to start immediately in Spain and everything else in ASC in parallel, then yes, great, an immediate switch from Hunter to AWD is possible, preferable and cheaper.

    Navantia have a naval design bureau in Australia (Melbourne) now, so they could definitely progress the updates to the AWD design very quickly locally, which is a major attraction of a switch back.
    https://navantia.com.au/navantia-australia-opens-naval-design-and-engineering-centre-in-melbourne/

    In fact reportedly under the Liberals, Navantia, in order to get more work as the Hobart order ran out, even offered to slightly extend the Hobart design to have 64 VLS cells instead of 48, and various other updates. On top of 8 NSM and Tomahawks, plus upgraded CEFIR radar, that becomes a quite well armed ship.

    The fact such cost effective offers to increase RAN capability were rejected shows how cynical RAN ship ordering has become in the past decade. Why order Hunters when you could have continued with a “Batch 2” Hobart order for half the cost, yet twice as heavily armed??

    If Hunter is also cancelled, Labor will still have to explain to taxpayers why another few billion was wasted preparing to build the wrong warship (again). Heads will be demanded.

    The Greens may be doing Labor a favour in referring the Hunter selection process for investigation. Embarrassing details from the previous government might help soften the blow of any loss.

    I’m still worried about the job loss. 1700 are working on Hunter at ASC now on prep work.

  35. Andrew_Earlwood and Socrates you have been looking at this all wrong, you have assumed the aim is to build subs.

    The submarines are only needed to fight china.

    If your secret squirrels are of a view fighting China is at best, smoke and mirrors, at worst a fight the US and China will destroy themselves over should it happen. Why build the SUBs? Two powers bombed back to the stone age do not pose much of a risk.

    The problem with the french submarines was they might have got built, and the money spent, it was looking like a real risk. How many times have we ordered them and changed our mind, it makes no sense if you assume we actually want to build them.

    The US options is starting to look ideal, might never get built. US fault not ours. What does 350 billion matter if most never gets spent, it is billions of dollars saved. Might have to spend a couple of billions to keep up the charade, but it is cheap.

    I now expect a visit from secret squirrels to shut me up, if I don’t post again assume I am dead.

  39. Antisemitic mob violence is sweeping across Dagestan in Russia:

    “Local religious authorities have suggested that they may need to evacuate an estimated 800 Jewish families from across Dagestan, many of them in the southern city of Derbent.

    “The situation is very difficult in Dagestan. People from the community are afraid, they call, and I do not know what to advise,” Ovadya Isakov, a government representative of the local Jewish community, told the Podyom news outlet. “Is it worth leaving? Because Russia is not our salvation. There were pogroms in Russia too. It is unclear where to run.”

    Prominent figures in Dagestan have spoken in support of Palestine and against the Israeli state since 7 October, when a Hamas raid sowed terror in southern Israel, killing more than 1,400. In response, the Israeli government has unleashed a bombing campaign against Gaza, killing an estimated 8,000 as of Sunday, according to local officials.

    Khabib Nurmagomedov, a former mixed-martial arts champion and possibly the most famous figure in Dagestan, posted to more than 35 million followers on Instagram earlier this month that Israel was engaged in “genocide” in Gaza.

    Reports of anti-Jewish acts were not confined to Makhachkala. In Nalchik, another city in the neighbouring Kabardino-Balkaria region, a planned Jewish centre was set on fire earlier on Sunday. Earlier on Sunday, protesters also besieged a hotel in the Dagestani city of Khasavyurt, searching rooms for “Jewish refugees”.

    “We are receiving reports from 4 different cities in Dagestan … of mobs demanding to kill the Jews,” tweeted Rabbi Pinchas Goldschmidt, a former chief rabbi of Moscow who left in 2022 after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “A direct result of the Russian government’s siding with Hamas in this conflict and lack of condemnation of the massacre of 7/10.””

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/29/mob-storms-dagestan-airport-in-search-of-jewish-passengers-from-israel

    Russia is clearly on board with stoking murderous antisemitism in its own territory, in addition to directly supporting it in Palestine through its proxies there, Hamas.

  41. “Commenting on the airport storming, Israel in a statement urged the Russian authorities to protect Israelis and Jews in their jurisdictions.

    “The state of Israel views gravely attempts to harm Israeli citizens and Jews anywhere,” the foreign ministry in Jerusalem said. “Israel expects the Russian law enforcement authorities to safeguard all Israeli citizens and Jews.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/29/mob-storms-dagestan-airport-in-search-of-jewish-passengers-from-israel

    Israel’s epiphany regarding the duplicity of its geopolitical partner, Russia, is finally occuring. However, it is coming too late to redeem Israel’s lack of support for Ukraine, born out of its misplaced concern for Russian interests.

  42. The Institute for the Study of War has this assessment of the fraught position this flare-up of antisemitic violence across Dagestan is creating for the Kremlin’s diplomatic posture:

    “The Kremlin will likely struggle to reassure constituencies that the situation is under control and convince Jewish audiences that Jewish minorities are safe in Russia despite its efforts to present Russia as a religiously tolerant country. Spokesperson for Russia’s Chief Rabbinate in Dagestan Ovadya Isakov stated on October 29 that hundreds of Jewish families in Dagestan should leave Dagestan and Russia altogether because “Russia is not salvation” as “there were pogroms in Russia too.” Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded Russia as a beacon of religious harmony at a meeting with leaders of several Russian religious organizations, including Jewish and Islamic faith leaders, on October 25.” The Kremlin likely aims to present Russia as protecting its religious minorities to curry favor with Muslim and Jewish audiences against the backdrop of the Israeli-Hamas war and to downplay tensions caused by the increasingly ultranationalist Russian Orthodox Church.”

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023

  43. The ISW also draws attention to how this conflict risks tearing at Russia’s multitude of inter-ethnic and inter-religious fault lines across its increasingly fragmented empire:

    “Russian ultranationalists expressed concerns that antisemitic demonstrations will spread from Dagestan and the North Caucasus to elsewhere in Russia. Select Russian ultranationalists blamed the initial rumors on a Ukrainian information operation, but others expressed deep concerns that antisemitic activities may spread and that anti-Russian activities could begin. One Russian milblogger rhetorically asked if there would be “pogroms” in Moscow and claimed that the demonstrations may lead to a situation reminiscent of the murders of ethnic Russians in Tajikistan and the Republic of Chechnya in the 1990s. Russian ultranationalists may also begin to heavily criticize Russian authorities’ response to the demonstrations, as several Russian sources bemoaned what they described as a lax official response so far.”

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2023

  44. Granny Anny

    The Chaser team have also worked out our naval budget.
    ““My plan is to knock on Anthony Albanese’s door, say ‘I’m a submarine built in Adelaide using American and British technology’, and just wait for him to hand over the cash. It’s all pretty simple really”.

    When it was pointed out that his submarine was just imaginary, Martin said, “Exactly! Just like the AUKUS submarines”.
    https://theshovel.com.au/2023/10/27/kid-dressing-up-as-an-aukus-submarine-this-halloween/

  45. for those interested in military history – a longish rightly or wrongly read viewpoint ….

    Israel falls into the “Vietnam trap”: Increasingly brutal tactics will only lead to disaster
    Israel’s military once won dramatic victories with agile commando tactics. But since 1973, it has all gone wrong

    Israel has already fallen into a version of America’s Vietnam trap: a cycle of ever more aggressive tactics and ever-larger amounts of military hardware. That’s about to get much worse in a ground invasion of Gaza.

    By MOSHE ALAMARO
    Moshe Alamaro served as an Israeli naval officer in the Six-Day War of 1967 and the Yom Kippur War of 1973. He is a retired atmospheric scientist at MIT.

    https://www.salon.com/2023/10/28/israel-falls-into-the-vietnam-trap-increasingly-brutal-tactics-will-only-lead-to-disaster/

  46. Israel has already fallen into a version of America’s Vietnam trap: a cycle of ever more aggressive tactics and ever-larger amounts of military hardware.

    Maybe. However I feel like the disparity in capability between Hamas and Israel is significantly larger than between Americans in Vietnam and the Vietcong.

    The biggest risk to Israel doesn’t seem to be losing soldiers or equipment, but the PR disaster they’re inflicting upon themselves via collateral damage. The US and allies had a PR disaster in Vietnam too, and then also nontrivial military losses.

  48. Enough Already

    Back to counting dead Russians. Is that what you do at night when you can’t sleep, when most people count sheep? I suggest sheep because dead Russians will get you way too excited to sleep.

    Scrolling past your rants. Scrolling and scrolling and scrolling…
    You’re going to give me RSI.

    Any legitimate points you might have just get lost in the blah.

  49. AR/phoenix Red

    I agree with AR that the PR damage and potential loss of public support in western countries is the real danger for Israel.

    There may be 2 million people in Gaza but only a fraction of them are trained Hamas fighters. So if the Israeli army really goes into Gaza they will probably capture the ground militarily.

    To me Israel / Gaza is more like the US invasion of Iraq than the US fight in Vietnam. This one Israel won’t lose militarily, but will never fully succeed in achieving peace. Over time it will lose popular support until it must leave Gaza.

    Meanwhile many civilians will die and Israel’s reputation will be damaged by that. Without popular support and (at least) US financial assistance, Israel could not afford to field its huge, well equipped military on its own. Without it, Israel would risk military defeat in any future major conflict. This could destabilise the entire region again, if a broader conflict breaks out.

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