Essential Research’s fortnightly poll is due this week, although that will be less interesting than it was if it’s decided to stop publishing voting intention numbers, as was the case with last fortnight’s poll. RedBridge Group has also been in the field, with results potentially to be published this week. Other than that:
• Nine Newspapers reports Gavin Pearce, Liberal member for Braddon in north-western Tasmania, is withholding his preselection nomination until his electoral neighbour, Bass MP Bridget Archer, is expelled from the party. Archer crossed the floor last week to vote against Peter Dutton’s motion for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities, which the hitherto indulgent Dutton described as a “mistake”. The report says four other conservative MPs are backing Pearce’s course, with one saying there was “a chance party officials would side with him”, while acknowledging this would likely mean Archer retaining her seat as an independent.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports that Scott Yung, who came within 69 votes of defeating Chris Minns in Kogarah amid a backlash against state Labor among the Chinese community at the 2019 state election (UPDATE: It is noted in comments that Yung merely came within 69 votes of Minns on the primary vote, and that the final two-party margin was actually 1.8%)), is set to become the Liberal candidate for Bennelong after the withdrawal of rival nominee Craig Chung. Silmalis reports Yung had the backing of Peter Dutton, whereas Chung was favoured by moderates. Jerome Laxale gained the seat for Labor in 2022, the party’s second ever win in the seat after Maxine McKew’s famous victory over John Howard in 2007.
• Next door in North Sydney, which Trent Zimmerman lost to teal independent Kylea Tink at last year’s election, the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports that Sophie Lambert, media manager at the NSW Education Department, has nominated for Liberal preselection. Lambert’s preselection brochure says the seat was “stolen at the last election by a concerning new wave of politics”, and shows her pictured alongside conservative favourite Katherine Deves. The matter could be complicated by the current redistribution process, in which the seat could be radically redrawn or potentially abolished.
• Further to the above, responses to the call for public suggestions for the redistribution of New South Wales seats will be published on the Australian Electoral Commission site today, presumably to include the wish lists of the major parties and other interested actors.
Socrates at 1335, I reckon there’s adequate evidence to say that most comedians get their inspiration from PB.
Too late, Senator. What’s done is done.
Over 3,000 children already are never coming back to life.
Paul,
6 posts in a row mostly about the Russia/Ukraine situation. We you not sin binned for spamming the blog with that stuff under another name? Plus a post on israel/gaza completely unrelated to Aussie politics. Dare I say that might be Enough already?……..
(Deliberately not putting forward any of my own views on either conflict here)
Dagestan is 83% Muslim, so I think what we are witnessing there is genuine pro-Palestine/anti-Israel sentiment rather than pure anti-Semitism of the neo-Nazi variety. So I’m not sure why the Australian media keep referring to “anti-Semitic rioters.”
I feel sorry for the minority Jewish population in Dagestan, and in a number of other Muslim majority countries. They are probably going to need to flee for Israel, which is a further blow to diversity in those countries.
PageBoi says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 2:53 pm
———————
Enough Already was sin binned for disrespecting William’s direct request to desist from setting purity tests for the likes of Watermelon and Nath and then haranguing them for not obliging. I’m not aware of having made any such transgressions myself.
Warren Mundine sent an extraordinary series of angry and expletive-riddled text messages to a KPMG partner after the firm cancelled an invitation for him to address staff following his request for a $10,000 fee.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/warren-mundine-expletive-texts-kpmg-partner-speaker-fee
____________
Mundine really showing class!
This is good stuff IMO.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-30/former-prime-ministers-join-to-condemn-hamas-israel-solidarity/103039764
The Lib PMs are no surprise, and we knew Gillard was solid on Israel. But Rudd was a minor surprise and good to see (even though I loathe the man, I am prepared to give credit where credit is due).
I assume – given that the Jewish lobby has a reputation for being always on the ball – that PJK was given every opportunity to sign this and was advised before it was released that he would be the only living PM not to do so. Which I fear is another indication that this once great man is gradually drifting towards the dark side of the Force.
Paul says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 3:08 pm
PageBoi says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 2:53 pm
———————
[‘Enough Already was sin binned for disrespecting William’s direct request to desist from setting purity tests for the likes of Watermelon and Nath and then haranguing them for not obliging. I’m not aware of having made any such transgressions myself.’]
You should apologise for your deception, which you’re still committing. Posters on this site did not come down with the last shower.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 2:16 pm
AR/phoenix Red
I agree with AR that the PR damage and potential loss of public support in western countries is the real danger for Israel.
There may be 2 million people in Gaza but only a fraction of them are trained Hamas fighters. So if the Israeli army really goes into Gaza they will probably capture the ground militarily.
To me Israel / Gaza is more like the US invasion of Iraq than the US fight in Vietnam. This one Israel won’t lose militarily, but will never fully succeed in achieving peace. Over time it will lose popular support until it must leave Gaza.
Meanwhile many civilians will die and Israel’s reputation will be damaged by that. Without popular support and (at least) US financial assistance, Israel could not afford to field its huge, well equipped military on its own. Without it, Israel would risk military defeat in any future major conflict. This could destabilise the entire region again, if a broader conflict breaks out.’
——————————————————
1. Christian fundies in the US are likely to have some sort of electoral BOP into the foreseeable future. If so, funding flows to Israel from the US are unlikely to be impeded any time soon. The associated Islamophobia and racism is unlikely to be curbed in the foreseeable future. But… Trump is more or less totally unpredictable so maybe you are right on this one…
2. Israel is a world-leader in electronics and a major developer and manufacturer and exporter of arms. Its ability to mobilize an army of plus 500,000 is unlikely to diminish any time soon because the vast bulk of that army consists of civilians whose only maintenance cost between wars is to train them and maintain weapons dumps. Key drivers – civilian skills, military-specific training, motivation and organization – are unlike to deteriorate any time soon.
3. I am not convinced there will be anybody left in Gaza after this war. It may be the wish/intention of some senior Israeli leaders to use this opportunity to ethnically cleanse Gaza.
4. Israel’s reputational damage has been enormous. This was, and is, always a Hamas war aim. But what practical difference does that make on the ground? Similarly, Hamas’ mass murders of Israeli civilians have had little practical effect in military terms.
5. It is not clear whether Hamas/Iran’s other war aim – to destabilize the growing links between Israel and Saudi Arabia is anything more than temporary result. For Saudi Arabia the real enemy is Iran and not Israel.
6. Israel has the vast advantage of internal lines. It has used these repeatedly and to good effect since 1948. That will not change.
7. Hamas is supposed to have/had around 15,000 troops and 70,000 support staff before the current war. Doubling that, or halving it, would make little difference to the outcome of this war beyond perhaps the date on which the Israelis decide enough is enough and the number of civilian casualties.
8. The motivation of the regional players is important in other ways. It seems to me that Iran would rather have Hesbollah intact and well-armed because Syria/Lebanon is far, far more important to Iran than is Gaza. There are continued and strictly limited exchanges of fire between Hesbollah and Israel. Unless these are about manoeuvres prior to triggering the real thing, these seem to be pro forma to save Hesbollah’ face.
9. In this context I note repeated calls from Minister Wong and from DFAT for the 15,000 Australians to get out of Lebanon while they can.
10. IMO the next ME gamebreaker will/would not be the actions of the US or by any of the competing regional powers but a nuke or nukes in the hands of militant islamists.
meher baba says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Dagestan is 83% Muslim, so I think what we are witnessing there is genuine pro-Palestine/anti-Israel sentiment rather than pure anti-Semitism of the neo-Nazi variety. So I’m not sure why the Australian media keep referring to “anti-Semitic rioters.”
….’
———————-
Really?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb3IMTJjzfo
meher baba says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 3:04 pm
Dagestan is 83% Muslim, so I think what we are witnessing there is genuine pro-Palestine/anti-Israel sentiment rather than pure anti-Semitism of the neo-Nazi variety. So I’m not sure why the Australian media keep referring to “anti-Semitic rioters.”
_______________________________________
There are many varieties of anti-semitism other than the neo-Nazi variety. The Protocols of the Elders of Zion has wide distribution in the Muslim world.
If you are attacking a plane from Tel Aviv because you think there are Jewish people aboard, then it’s anti-semitism and not just being pro-Palestinian. And the Dagestan authorities seem to have accepted this reading too.
meher baba
Dagestan is 83% Muslim, so I think what we are witnessing there is genuine pro-Palestine/anti-Israel sentiment rather than pure anti-Semitism of the neo-Nazi variety. So I’m not sure why the Australian media keep referring to “anti-Semitic rioters.”
Every media story I have seen refers to the rioters shouting and chanting “antisemitic slogans” and looking for Jews.
If you are a Jew facing a potential pogrom, the exact ideology of your accusers might come a distant second to personal survival.
Granny Anny 2:30
Glad to know PB is useful for something.
Boerwar 3:18
Thanks, a well thought out summary.
Well done, the Albanese Government and Don Farrell:
https://citynews.com.au/2023/cheesed-off-eu-free-trade-talks-collapse/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Excellent news.
Well, here we have it.
QANTAS does not sell tickets to flights.
It sells a ‘bundle of rights’.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/qantas-accc-case-response-fees-cancelled-flights
I see that bad faith continues under new QANTAS management.
I had a read (freebie) of the CM today. It’s clearly showing its bias towards the Tory & Country parties. Law & Order rates highest, followed by what it contends is a health system in crisis. I’ve had quite a number of dealings of late with Qld Health & couldn’t fault it, but will concede it may be underperforming in regional & rural Queensland. And as for giving the impression that crime is out of control, crime stats show that some offences – eg, enter premises or dwelling with intent – are decreasing, some markedly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-30/queensland-youth-crime-long-term-data-downward-abs-police/102917994
Wazza mans his ramparts:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/warren-mundine-expletive-texts-kpmg-partner-speaker-fee
QANTAS, PwC Aus, Colesworths, Harvey Norman, et al….. bad faith abounds within corporate Australia.
An entirely unoriginal thought: change the rules once you have used the rules to gain power:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/29/mike-johnson-house-speaker-rule-vote-removal
Mavis, I think my descriptions of why EA was binned, and of my own posts, are accurate.
One for our legal eagles: to criminalize or not to criminalize juror malfeasance.
https://citynews.com.au/2023/when-the-jury-ends-up-in-the-dock/
Qantas has claimed it doesn’t sell customers tickets to any particular flight, but rather a “bundle of rights” that includes alternative options in the event of cancellations, as it responds to allegations it sold tickets to thousands of already cancelled flights.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/30/qantas-accc-case-response-fees-cancelled-flights
______________
I hope the ACCC takes the bastards top the cleaners!
Then there is the BYD Seagull about US $10,000 –
https://youtu.be/CBdVLNMP8dE?t=51
A federal judge reinstated a narrow gag order on Sunday preventing former President Trump from making public remarks that target prosecutors, potential witnesses or staff of the court.
U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan – who is overseeing the federal case relating to efforts to interfere in the 2020 presidential election – posted the decision on the public court docket on Sunday, but her reasoning was not immediately available because of a reported “glitch” in the computer system. The contours of the reinstated gag order were not available either.
Chutkan’s decision to bar Trump from making certain public statements comes nine days after she temporarily lifted the gag order to allow for Trump and his legal team to appeal the ruling. The gag order was first imposed on Oct. 16.
The dispute between Trump’s legal team and the Justice Department (DOJ) about the legality of the gag order has been tense and has gone through several rounds of arguments. Trump’s team has argued the gag order is a violation of Trump’s First Amendment rights and that it also comes just as his campaign for president kicks into high gear. Ultimately, Chutkan made her decision on Sunday after prosecutors presented evidence that Trump had targeted witnesses in recent social media posts.
Does the “bundle of rights” approach from Qantas underpin its practice of consistent overbooking of flights?
BK
In practice, it is more like a bundle of passengers can GAGF.
Paul:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 3:55 pm
[‘Mavis, I think my descriptions of why EA was binned, and of my own posts, are accurate.’]
You’re compounding the error of your ways. The truth will set thee free.
Boerwar says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 3:51 pm
An entirely unoriginal thought: change the rules once you have used the rules to gain power:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/29/mike-johnson-house-speaker-rule-vote-removal
————————————-
This is true. Exhibit A: Sulla.
NSW Redistribution Submissions – which seats are for the chop. by Antony Green October 30:
As outlined in a previous post, NSW is set to lose a seat at the next Federal election. The AEC has released submissions to the redistribution that will reduce the state from 47 to 46 seats. In this post I’ll run through some of the major features of party proposals. You can find the submissions at this link.
https://antonygreen.com.au/nsw-redistribution-submissions-which-seats-are-for-the-chop/
Enough already was a real shit. This Paul guy doesn’t seem so bad.
Yes, the progressive crossbench delivered a solution, only for the fossil fuel cartel agents within Labor and the L/NP to remove it.
nathsays:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 4:27 pm
Enough already was a real shit. This Paul guy doesn’t seem so bad.
———————
Thanks, Nath. I think EA treated you very unfairly – though some others, not so much.
The final betrayal of Australian energy consumers was committed by Rudd who terminated the carbon tax.
The Wall Street Journal (average circulation of 3.9 million readers) names Adelaide ‘Australia’s coolest city.’
“The capital of South Australia, Adelaide offers an almost utopian alternative to the typical urban sprawl,” the story reads.
“A moat of lush parkland surrounds a one-quarter mile city centre full of shops and restaurants. Beyond that, leafy suburbs give way to the Adelaide Hills, where koalas roam, and to the sea.”
I guess the secret’s out.
While I acknowledge the economic efficiency arguments of a carbon price, I believe it was the Australian people who rejected the last one.
Koalas ‘roam’?
Roam, roam on the range…
Boerwar
A koala roamed over our front yard last week, climbed a tree by the gate and later issued forth with its cacophonous mating calls.
Boerwar / BK
Sounds like Qantas has gone the ‘bundle of rights” defence because it knows it has been caught red handed on the cancelled flights.
It is one thing for Qantas’ lawyer to claim this, but if none of its own ads made this clear, I fail to see how it is true. Either the flight promise was true, or the ads were misleading.
Adelaide is a lot of things, but ‘cool’ is not and will never be, one of them.
‘BK says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Boerwar
A koala roamed over our front yard last week, climbed a tree by the gate and later issued forth with its cacophonous mating calls.’
———————
World beaters, IMO. Koalas just have to be male chauvenistic pigs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocIR6B-YtYE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cif8N8c7Q24
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Boerwar / BK
Sounds like Qantas has gone the ‘bundle of rights” defence because it knows it has been caught red handed on the cancelled flights.
It is one thing for Qantas’ lawyer to claim this, but if none of its own ads made this clear, I fail to see how it is true. Either the flight promise was true, or the ads were misleading.’
————————
An excellent argument for jailing the entire Board, IMO.
Melbourne is set to have population of 6 million in next couple of years.
Adelaide with a population of 1.3 million is definitely serene with respect to urban sprawl. Lol
Boerwarsays:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 5:05 pm
‘Socrates says:
Monday, October 30, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Boerwar / BK
Sounds like Qantas has gone the ‘bundle of rights” defence because it knows it has been caught red handed on the cancelled flights.
It is one thing for Qantas’ lawyer to claim this, but if none of its own ads made this clear, I fail to see how it is true. Either the flight promise was true, or the ads were misleading.’
————————
An excellent argument for jailing the entire Board, IMO.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Just see the ads……Flash sale, $500 for a bundle of rights.
To be fair, nath knows a bit about sock puppets.
Give me a home,
Where the Koalas roam,
and the wombats and kangaroos play,
Where never is heard,
A discouraging word…
S777
LOL. I was waiting for it…