The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 52-48, in from 54-46 at the poll conducted from October 4 to 12 in the lead-up to the referendum, from primary votes of Labor 35% (down one), Coalition 37% (up two), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). This is the narrowest two-party Newspoll result since the election, eclipsing two of the last four results which had it at 53-47.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings have taken a tumble, down four on approval to 42% and up six on disapproval to 52%. The net rating of minus 10 is substantially weaker than his previous worst results for the term of minus one, likewise recorded in two of the previous four polls. Peter Dutton is at 37% approval and 50% disapproval, which is respectively up two and down three on the previous Newspoll result, but equal to the poll before. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is now 46-36, in from 51-31 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1220.
Also out today was the latest federal poll from RedBridge Group which has Labor’s two-party lead at 53.5-46.5, in from 54.1-45.9 in the pollster’s previous result from early September. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 17% (up three). The poll was conducted October 27 to November 2 from a sample of 1205.
looking at the swings from this poll against the 2022 federal election result
Labor primary vote 35% = 2.4% swing to Labor (32.6%, 2022)
Lib/nats combined primary vote 37% = 1.3% swing to Lib/Nats (35.7% , 2022)
Advantage to Labor
Dr Doolittle
For independents, Parliament is a bit like the Australian cricket team: very difficult to get into but, once you’re there, almost impossible to get dropped.
Most independents at both the Federal and State level appear to be very difficult to shift. If they work hard, and keep up their profile in the local media, they generally seem to get more popular over time: the only major risk to their popularity is if there is a hung parliament in which they are forced to choose one side or another: as we saw with Windsor and Oakeshott in 2010.
They can sometimes even pass on their seats to successors: as Cathy McGowan did to Helen Haines in Indi, and Ted Mack did to Robyn Read in North Shore in NSW (albeit only for one term).
So, on the face of it, I’m expecting almost all of the Teals to be returned in the next election, and probably Dai Le as well.
With the right Liberal candidate running against her, Monique Ryan is at some risk: there has always been a sense of there being a little too much red and green mixed into her teal colouring. Her insufficiently agile commentary about the situation in Israel and, further back, her embarrassing stoush with chief of staff Sally Rugg (which, apart from anything else, indicated to the public that she had been willing to employ an activist like Rugg) will be used against her. But, even so, I reckon she’s more likely to hold on to her seat than not.
Tink is the other one who hasn’t impressed me all that much lately, but it appears that the Liberal Right has its tentacles wrapped around preselection for North Sydney – assuming it isn’t abolished or altered significantly by a redistribution – and a right-wing Liberal candidate is going to end up as roadkill in that electorate. I’m sure the party would love to run Gladys there, but they can’t find a pumice stone capable of removing the dirt from her. So, in the absence of a quality Liberal candidate, Tink will most likely survive as well. Unless she is brought by the redistribution into a head to head contest with Steggall, in which case she is toast.
Steggall (assuming she still has a seat to run for) is now a seasoned veteran, Spender is going extremely well (she’d make a terrific opposition leader of a sane Liberal Party), Daniel is strong and tough like her dad when he played for the Bombers, and the people of the leafy suburbs of Curtin have been in love with the Chaney family for three generations now, so Kate will presumably be returned. And I assume that Haines is pretty safe in Indi.
The one Teal who hasn’t caught much of my attention is Scamps. I grew up in Warringah, and (with the exception of Manly, which has always been a bit cosmpolitan) it always seemed to me to be the most claustrophobically right-wing environment on earth, barring the Pittwater area which is the heart of the Mackellar electorate. This is the place that kept merrily returning Bronwyn Bishop to Parliament until she opened the curtains too early one evening and a dying ray of sunlight caused her to disintegrate into dust (or something like that)! I find it difficult to believe that Scamps can keep holding that seat against the Libs. She doesn’t get much exposure in the media outlets I follow, but perhaps she’s doing well at the local level. Do any PBers happen to live in that protected habitat for cashed-up bogans?
Dai Le is getting good coverage, including by the unctuous Crabby on her silly show, and I would expect that she is a good chance to survive.
Fess: “A Herald investigation has uncovered disturbing practices within the Jehovah’s Witness church, including the systems for discipline, punishment and control in a secret rule book for church “elders”.”
The Jaydubs are a weird and disturbing organisation. In his teens, my son was friendly with the son of a Jaydub family that had migrated here from Italy (where, for some reason, they are extremely prevalent) and the parents were way weird: they behaved much of the time like they were hypnotised. All Jaydubs seem to think about from the moment they get up to the moment they go to bed is the end of the world as described by the Book of Revelations.
The weirdest part is that they believe (or did, last time I checked) that there are only 144,000 places in heaven, but there are nonetheless millions of Jaydubs around the world.
People are inclined to put the Jaydubs and Mormons into the same category, but I’ve found that Mormons – despite wearing weird undergarments and believing some out pretty there stuff – are relatively sane and normal in comparison to the Jaydubs. Even the Adventists, who are more cultish than the Mormons, are way less crazy than the Jaydubs.
SBS scores rights to next men’s soccer World Cup: The broadcaster will keep its 40-year relationship with soccer’s international body intact, after outbidding other networks and streamers.
Thousands of MyGov accounts are being suspended each month out of concern they’ve been breached via “scam-in-a-box” kits being sold by criminals on the dark web.
The products were being used to create fake websites, and provide the specialist knowledge required to launch phishing attacks on Centrelink, Australian Tax Office and Medicare accounts.
So far this year, more than 4,500 MyGov scams have been confirmed, with thousands of accounts suspended each month due to suspected fraud.
In some cases, the kits come with security controls and allow criminals to run multiple scams at once, before quickly closing them to avoid detection.
Some can identify when they’re being used by more IT-savvy users, and direct them to the official MyGov website. Many fake websites are almost identical to the real version.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/06/scam-in-a-box-mygov-suspends-thousands-of-accounts-linked-to-dark-web-kits
Dr Doolittle at Monday, November 6, 2023 at 12:59 am
Yes, that’s all correct. I was really only pointing out the absolute best-case way this Newspoll could be interpreted for the Coalition. These numbers suggest a net drift from ‘Other’ of 5%, but this would be across the board, not concentrated where Teal independents hold. Sophomore effects will most likely insulate the first-term Teals from a large chunk of this 5% drift. Another point is that a 2.5% lift in the Labor PV, with the Green PV staying put, might see some interesting changes in Green seats in Brisbane.
meher:
Kate Chaney is another Teal I’d expect to get seriously challenged by the Liberals. WA Liberals aren’t as crazy as the NSW Liberals, so there is a good chance she will be challenged by a sane person rather than a hard right religious zealot.
Do any PBers happen to live in that protected habitat for cashed-up bogans?
I live on the opposite headland to Palm Beach and am familiar with the types of people who live over there and I can confidently say that Dr Scamps is very popular with the locals. She was formerly a paediatrician, so my friend told me who comes from there, and they all took their kids to her before she went into parliament. I also think she is very involved in the local fitness scene and running. Which a lot of the people that live there, though not all, are also. Young-ish, urban professionals who are into Wellness, the environment and new age businesses. So she is ideal for them. I believe that’s why she seemed to come out of nowhere to knock off Jason Falinski. I think she’ll be there as long as she wants to be.
Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in five swing states with a year left to the 2024 election.
When Mr Biden won in 2020, he won so after pitching himself as the electable candidate in the Democratic primary – the man who could take down then-President Trump.
Nearly three years into his presidency, Mr Biden is trailing Mr Trump, not because his predecessor is surging in popularity, Mr Trump is as unpopular as ever with American voters, but because the oldest president in US history is seeing his ratings plummet.
In the six battleground states where the 2024 election is likely to be decided, Mr Biden only leads in one – Wisconsin, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College. Mr Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan, wins that would probably hand him the 270 electoral votes required for Mr Trump to return to the White House.
In the important swing states, Mr Biden is behind Mr Trump on average by four points.
I doubt there is anyone predicting a Liberal victory in next year’s election. What’s at play is what does the second term look like.
It looks pretty clear atm that Labor will be forced into some sort of accomodation with the Greens/Teals. A net loss of 5 Labor seats would be ideal 73 -63 -13 would be a great Parly.
It’s actually a pretty good outcome IMO. We’ll get some real change in the next term, mostly forced on Labor and the Libs.
Yep, Donald Trump is campaigning and putting on crazy clown shows for people and President Biden is governing. Donald Trump is actually losing his marbles and President Biden isn’t. They are both about the same age, but Trump is more likely to die in office. Also, former Republicans who are against Trump haven’t started their campaigns against him in earnest yet, not to mention the court cases going on right now to keep him off the ballot. So, titillating posts about polls now are only kind of relevant.
I will not be surprise by Morrison going to Israel and the not so good Lib/nats combined primary vote 37%
may encourage Scott Morrison to put his hand up in a liberal party leadership spill ,same as he did when there was one against Turnbull
Centrelink call centres will get an additional 3,000 staff as part of an immediate $228m funding boost to speed up claim payments after complaints of blown-out call wait times.
More than 800 workers have already been recruited, with the remaining 2,200 to be employed in centres across capital cities and regional New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria, the government services minister, Bill Shorten, announced on Sunday night.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/06/centrelink-to-get-3000-new-staff-in-bid-to-deal-with-helpline-and-payment-delays
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 6:57 am
I doubt there is anyone predicting a Liberal victory in next year’s election. What’s at play is what does the second term look like.
It looks pretty clear atm that Labor will be forced into some sort of accomodation with the Greens/Teals. A net loss of 5 Labor seats would be ideal 73 -63 -13 would be a great Parly.
————-
I cannot see Labor losing seats if the primary vote is greater than 2022 , and the swing to Labor is greater than what its for lib/nats
Re the Newspoll: as I said last night, probably only a blip.
I enjoy LVT’s contributions on here more than most, but his suggestion that this means that Labor should start looking at Chalmers for PM is pretty silly (whether he meant it seriously or not).
Albo is not a very impressive man but – like Howard – he’s the sort of unimpressive man that the voters tend to trust. He’ll be there for a while to come: certainly to a second term and most likely a third.
Jim Chalmers is a long way off being ready to become a political leader IMO. The address on his birth certificate might endear him to Queenslanders, but to me he comes across as a bit of a smarta___e who simply doesnt’ know when to bite his tongue. Journalists seem to feel that, if they just prod him often enough, they’ll be able to get him to say something stupid and embarrassing.
Yesterday on Insiders, Karvelas – with the smile of a piranha – asked him a stream of questions to which most politicians would have responded with “I’ve answered that already, what’s next.” But Chalmers responds by offering a tidbit of information, prompting a further follow-up quesition, and then he volunteers another tidbit: the whole time looking extremely smug. He seems to believe that he’s in total control of these exchanges, but it doesn’t come across that way. One day it might all explode in his face.
If Albo were to step down at some point, I reckon he would try hard to hand over the baton to a woman. I think it’s probably too late for Tanya (and I don’t think she’s truly up for it anyway), and Penny won’t do it. So I guess Clare O’Neil. Although the outsider who really impresses me as both an intellect and a communicator is Anne Aly. But, sadly, being a Muslim and coming from WA are probably two bridges too far.
Scott, so Morrison is going to be part of a spill. That’s a highly intelligent comment.
As for the teals, as they will support Labor when it comes to the crunch, the Libs should put up independent candidates who will go the other way. I believe the teals can get nailed, just need the correct candidate and with the direction Dutton is heading, being part of the lib party makes it hard.
Dai Lei types everywhere as well.
Fess: “Kate Chaney is another Teal I’d expect to get seriously challenged by the Liberals. WA Liberals aren’t as crazy as the NSW Liberals, so there is a good chance she will be challenged by a sane person rather than a hard right religious zealot.”
Yes, but she’s a Chaney, and that counts for a fair bit. Also, you might say that the WA Liberals aren’t as crazy as the NSW Liberals, but haven’t they produced people like Noel Crichton-Browne, Troy Buswell and Andrew Hastie?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here’s Simon Benson’s take on the latest Newspoll.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-leading-on-primary-vote-as-dutton-closes-in-on-albanese/news-story/9e2c3b2e95123cbcfc8ad1604239b39a?amp=
Sean Kelly writes, “Right now, the federal political debate over Israel, Hamas and Gaza seems to be a particularly sharp argument over language. If you don’t know the precise meanings of terms like “collective punishment”, “genocide”, “ceasefire” or “restraint” – where “meaning” isn’t literal but depends on triangulating between past, present and the shifting language of other nations – you are likely to find yourself suddenly immersed in deep and rushing waters.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-next-great-challenge-finding-the-right-words-now-we-need-them-most-20231103-p5ehj3.html
Billions of dollars in infrastructure projects around the country are on the chopping block and more face years-long delays in an attempt to drive down inflation as borrowers brace for the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates again on Tuesday. NineFax tells us that ambitious state and federal road and rail projects were flagged by the International Monetary Fund last week as factors that could force the RBA to lift rates even higher. The IMF urged governments to slow down their big builds.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inflation-fight-nation-s-big-builds-head-for-slowdown-interest-rates-tipped-to-rise-on-cup-day-20231103-p5ehe7.html
The AFR editorial says that Chalmers shoring up Bullock’s inflation-fighting authority is a helpful development ahead of Tuesday’s RBA board meeting, and amid concerns that the central bank is under political pressure not to lift interest rates again despite persistent inflation.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/chalmers-shores-up-bullock-s-inflation-fighting-authority-20231105-p5ehmx
Anthony Albanese has hailed a Chinese pledge to engage in fair trade after years of friction over bans on Australian products but has warned that China must meet “high standards” if it wants to join a powerful regional trade pact. David Crowe and Eryk Bagshaw report that Albanese emerged from meetings with Chinese leaders in Shanghai with a “very positive” response to the country’s promise to engage in open trade, but would not say whether Australia might one day back China on its highly sensitive call to join the free trade agreement known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lobster-looms-on-chinese-menus-but-albanese-hedges-on-beijing-s-trade-pact-pitch-20231103-p5ehd2.html
On the subject of the latest jobs-for-the-boys scandal engulfing Transport Minister Jo Haylen, the SMH editorial says that in defending the indefensible, the Minns government is treating the NSW public like idiots.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/in-defending-the-indefensible-the-minns-government-is-treating-the-nsw-public-like-idiots-20231105-p5ehpq.html
Thousands of MyGov accounts are being suspended each month out of concern they’ve been breached via “scam-in-a-box” kits being sold by criminals on the dark web. Henry Belot reports that the products were being used to create fake websites and provide the specialist knowledge required to launch phishing attacks on Centrelink, Australian Tax Office and Medicare accounts.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/06/scam-in-a-box-mygov-suspends-thousands-of-accounts-linked-to-dark-web-kits
Australians aren’t moving between jobs as often as they used to and research suggests a drop-off in job mobility is hurting productivity and making the entire country worse off, explains Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/drop-in-job-switching-holding-back-the-economy-20231103-p5ehd7.html
The federal government is hopeful Centrelink call wait times will reduce with 3000 extra staff to be recruited in frontline roles. Lucy Bladen tells us that Government Services Minister Bill Shorten said more than 800 people had already accepted jobs with the agency.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8412697/services-australia-targets-call-wait-times-with-3000-extra-staff/?cs=14329
The AIMN’s 2353NM writes, “It seems the Coalition under Dutton isn’t planning to work with the government anytime soon. Dutton and his cohort are throwing whatever they think it takes out there to go negative. Any positive measures (such as a second referendum to acknowledge First Nations people in the Constitution) are reversed almost before they are announced. After all, absolute opposition eventually got Abbott the Prime Ministership. ‘Back to the Future’ was a successful movie franchise and Dutton’s betting it is a good political strategy as well.”
https://theaimn.com/the-proof-is-in-the-pudding/
Indonesia is the biggest economy in the South East Asian region, and our closest neighbour. It’s the tenth largest economy in terms of purchasing power in the world, yet doesn’t rank among our top ten trading partners. Yet another report is unlikely to help, Duncan Graham explains.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-moore-report-on-south-east-asian-trade-unlikely-to-lead-to-more-trade/
Victoria’s leading Neo Nazi left the County Court in Melbourne on Friday with the judge’s message, “Good luck with the future, Gentlemen” ringing in his ears, laughing at the judge’s assertion that he and his co-offender have good prospects for rehabilitation. They greeted reporters outside the court with the observation that they were innocent, followed by “homophobic and antisemitic slurs.” They departed with another Roman Salute and “Heil Hitler”, writes Lucy Hamilton who is concerned that Australian judges are failing to protect society from violent extremism.
https://johnmenadue.com/australian-judges-are-failing-to-protect-society-from-violent-extremism/
The AEC is shifting electorate boundaries, but should parliament be adding seats, asks Paul Karp.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/nov/06/the-aec-is-shifting-electorate-boundaries-but-should-parliament-be-adding-seats
Potentially crucial forensic evidence from Queensland crimes was routinely discarded for more than a decade, ruining the chance of retesting and worsening the biggest forensic disaster in history.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/shandee-blackburn-murder-crime-scene-evidence-routinely-destroyed/news-story/96217e025bf96fea4e2e2487e7c01409?amp=
Dozens of wealthy clients – AFL heavyweights and racing identities among them – invested millions of dollars with suburban the law firm. Days after lawyer John Adams died it was discovered that up to $100m in clients’ funds had vanished. No wonder the Coroners Court of Victoria has launched an investigation into the death.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/coroner-investigates-death-of-lawyer-under-suspicion-over-apparent-ponzi-scheme-20231105-p5ehon.html
Cost-of-living pressures will have “integrity ripple effects” across Victoria’s racing industry, putting participants at greater risk of corrupt conduct, the state’s racing integrity commissioner has warned. Annika Smethurst reports that Commissioner Sean Carroll said while complaints to his watchdog – which can investigate reports of race fixing, prohibited substances and systemic animal welfare issues – were notionally down by 12 per cent on the previous year, they were up 31 per cent compared with the previous five-year average.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorian-racing-industry-at-risk-of-corruption-as-cost-of-living-pressures-rise-20231105-p5ehod.html
The Greens say they would introduce an effective rent freeze across Brisbane by enacting massive land rates increases for any property investors who increase the rent. Ben Smee writes that the announcement today will be a centrepiece of the Greens’ campaign for the Brisbane city council, a city where nearly four in 10 homes are occupied by renters.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/06/greens-brisbane-city-council-battle-landlords-rent-prices-freeze
A win for the airline would only serve to reset the bar for air travel even lower, with dreadful ramifications for productivity, writes the AFR’s Ayesha de Kretser who says Australians will lose if Qantas wins against the ACCC.
https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/australians-will-lose-if-qantas-wins-against-the-accc-20231101-p5egmn
Nine Entertainment’s board has raised serious concerns about the sponsorships saga that has dogged its radio arm, including 2GB host Ben Fordham’s Uber deal and 3AW host Jacqui Felgate’s 15 paid partnerships. Both are the subject of an investigation by the media regulator. The discussions at the Nine board’s most recent meeting, in September, came soon after a series of stories published by The Australian exposed Felgate’s then undeclared partnerships and also Fordham’s conduct, which prompted an investigation by the Australian Communications and Media Authority.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/nine-entertainments-board-raised-concerns-sponsorship-deals-that-triggered-acma-investigation/news-story/e5bde15460e3998f174fcad681a7768a?amp=
A Canberra technology company has provided an alarming insight into the danger posed by drowsy or inattentive heavy vehicle drivers, detecting an average of an average of 60 fatigue and distraction events every hour. In an industry which moves more than 230 billion tonnes of goods around the country on public roads every year, most heavy vehicle driver fatigue events occur in the early morning between 4am and 5am, and most distraction events occur in the early afternoon, between 1pm and 3pm. These guys are getting pushed to – and beyond – their limit!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8410383/danger-posed-by-drowsy-truckies-revealed-in-alarming-figures/?cs=14329
A Sydney Morning Herald investigation has uncovered disturbing practices within the Jehovah’s Witness church, including the systems for discipline, punishment and control in a secret rule book for church “elders”. Ben Cubby lifts the lid on this odious outfit that we support through our taxes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/punishment-and-control-the-secret-handbook-that-rules-a-religion-20231026-p5ef9z.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Badiucao
Joe Benke
Glen Le Lievre – with a gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1720562852464103522
Mark Knight
Jim Pavlidis
Spooner obsesses yet again!
From the US
What’s Albo agenda beyond the Voice Meher?
Govt’s have mid term slumps but is this just a slump or more fundamental?
Why has no PM since Howard lasted more than 3 or so years?
Australians seem to be rejecting incumbency whilst not enamoured of the alternative.
Ultimately about 30-35% are no longer first pref voters for Labor or Liberal and that’s the fundamentally different factor in why incumbency is much more volatile.
C@t, completely agree that Biden’s team have worked hard at governing – his (un)favourability is quite bizarre. They do have a problem now tho in getting things thru a more complicated House.
And yes, the Democrats are more adept at selling the case come election time to anyone who isn’t a FoxNews or Truth Social cultist.
As I said, Tuesday night (US time) will hold some more clues about the electorate. But they aren’t good numbers regardless. Keen to see them talk about their methodology on these state polls. And also interested in how Harris performed. We’re some of those polled protesting at Biden and his advanced age?
I hope people realise that the ‘Airbus Albo’ schtick is simply a reprise of the ‘Kevin747’ meme that the Liberals tried on last time Labor were in government federally. The Coalition and their Mini Mes on the blogs, and cartoonists for the Murdoch rags like Mark Knight, are nothing if not unoriginal. Like flies, if they’re on a good thing they stick to it.
Also, it’s commentary that magically disappears when they are in government. So, best ignored.
I should be doing other stuff today (as you can possibly tell by how much I’m posting).
One last very sad thought.
More than twenty years ago, as my first marriage was breaking down, I was sitting with my 8yo son in the beer garden of the Royal Hotel in Daylesford on a beautiful summer’s night while he enjoyed some chips and I might have had a jar or two to soften the pain. Back then there was a fence between the seating area and the roundabout, but it clearly wouldn’t have done much to stop a car going at the speed that the vehicle last night appears to have been going.
I can’t stop thinking about what happened to the people and their kids who were there last night. My life over the past 20 years has been pretty difficult, with some intermittent good times, but I wouldn’t have missed it for quids. We all feel so protected by our affluence and advanced technologies, but we are still soft, vulnerable creatures who can be snuffed out in an instant. The suffering of the families of those killed and severely injured is unimaginable.
I also feel immensely sorry for the driver. I suspect he isn’t going to get much sympathy from anybody, seemingly being the quintessential rich old white guy in an expensive BMW SUV. Perhaps he had a mini stroke, or momentarily confused the brake with the accelerator (which happens), or was simply driving too aggressively so that he could get through the roundabout ahead someone coming the other way (as many of us old white guys tend to do). Whatever was the cause, he now has to live with what he did for the rest of his life. I don’t know how he does that.
Such sad news. Coming on top of the news from Israel and Gaza, not to forget the Ukraine. There’s so much grief and suffering in our world. The way to dharma is to find a way of truly appreciating that all existence is an illusion and that there is really no distinction between suffering and pleasure. (Or, Jews and Christians, there is much wisdom of a similar nature to be found in the Book of Ecclesiastes.)
But it’s bloody tough, isn’t it.
well albanese seems to be doing a litle to much traveling that being saidwas not the liberals line that no body knew who albo was and he did not have any national security expirence morrison wasnot well liked over seas its unusual for a foreign leader the french president to publickly call him a lier even though he was upset over submarine canselation
Lovely comment, meher baba. I, too think about my time in Daylesford when we went there to visit my late husband’s cousin, whose business was making harpsichords and violins. Such a beautiful part of the world, full of old world charm and beautiful people. I hope this accident doesn’t change them.
michael says:
Monday, November 6, 2023 at 7:10 am
Scott, so Morrison is going to be part of a spill. That’s a highly intelligent comment.
——————-
it looks like Morrison has no intentions of leaving politics unless the people of cook votes him out , or Morrison is making overseas visits(as a former prime minister) playing politics to try to make things difficult for Labor/Albanese government
SMH 05/11
At the height of last year’s John Barilaro job saga, Minns penned an opinion piece for the Herald in which he promised Labor would adhere to the highest levels of probity should the party return to government after 12 years in the political wilderness.
_____________________
As if that was ever going to happen.
Scott, Morrison is not going to do a Tony Abbott. He is gone from the next election, it did not do Tony any good hanging around, and Morrison won’t make the same mistake.
LVT: “What’s Albo agenda beyond the Voice Meher?
Govt’s have mid term slumps but is this just a slump or more fundamental?
Why has no PM since Howard lasted more than 3 or so years?
Australians seem to be rejecting incumbency whilst not enamoured of the alternative.
Ultimately about 30-35% are no longer first pref voters for Labor or Liberal and that’s the fundamentally different factor in why incumbency is much more volatile.”
If he has any sense, Albo’s agenda will be to
1) try to dampen the cost of living whinge: which shouldn’t be too difficult, given that we have full employment. The one tricky bit is interest rates. If the RB does put them up tomorrow, that will need to be the end of it;
2) use the bushfires of the coming summer (which, whether or not they exceed expectations, will get enhanced media coverage than in previous years) to put pressure on the Coalition re climate change, clean energy, etc; and
3) more generally, try to represent the Coalition as the right-wing extremists that they are increasingly becoming. The backdrop of the US Presidential race will be helpful to that mission.
Albo is no great shakes and nor are his advisors. There is much that can still go wrong for Labor, including internal ructions around what is going on in the Middle East. However, I would expect that Albo’s team of strategists are justifiably feeling pretty comfortable at the moment. If worst comes to worst (and I don’t think it will), a coalition with some of the Teals would be ok: more damaging to the Teals than Labor. A coalition with the Greens is looking increasingly untenable: it was thinkable when they were predominantly environmentalists, but it would be toxic for Labor now.
Team Katich,
I subscribe to the Substack newsletter, ‘Hopium Chronicles’, by the Democrat demographer and pollster, Simon Rosenberg. He had a very interesting post the other day about economic polling:
https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/5-days-to-go-keep-working-it-everyone
It pays to be sceptical about polls. 🙂
micheal
Reason why Abbott is out of politics is because he was voted out by his electorate
I think the seat of cook is similar to the seat of fadden , no matter what the Liberal party member does will be a liberal party safe seat , If Morrison is the candidate he will likely be retained as the member for cook
Scott @ #80 Monday, November 6th, 2023 – 7:46 am
And there to remind the electorate that the Liberal Party can’t get rid of the cancers in their Blue Blood. Also, what a toxic government the Morrison government was and Peter Dutton was a Senior Minister in that government.
c@t: “I hope this accident doesn’t change them.”
It probably will for a while.
It took more than a decade after the Port Arthur massacre for the dark cloud to begin to lift from over the Tasman peninsula. It’s still in the hearts of the people who live down there, but you don’t sense it all that much when you visit today: although, of course, Port Arthur itself is still the rather grim place it has been for more than two hundred years.
I agree with you that Daylesford is a wonderful place to visit: albeit, it has been slowly evolving from being a refuge for artists and bohemian types to more of a resort for those among the mega-rich of Melbourne who aren’t obsessed with skiing.
“ I live on the opposite headland to Palm Beach and am familiar with the types of people who live over there and I can confidently say that Dr Scamps is very popular with the locals. ”
______
“I can see Russia from my kitchen window.”
Albo is a work horse not a show pony.
I do have to laugh at those claiming Labor honey moon is over
when the recent opinion polling shows Labor primary vote is still higher then its 2022 federal election
Pay that one Andrew – good line.
If the claim is that Albanese’s honeymoon as preferred prime minister is over is also a myth
Australian voters have never voted for the prime minister in federal elections , the preferred prime minister is only for opinion polling , Albanese is still in front of Dutton
How can that be the honeymoon over when Albanese is still in front
L’arse Von Bot Bot:
“ What’s Albo agenda beyond the Voice Meher?”
_______
What was the agenda of any tory government over the past 80 years other than status quo anti?
Come to think of it, Hawke was elected on a motherhood statement, the reforms of his government were mainly done incrementally by effective minsters – usually announced and delivered mid term (save for perhaps Medicare), and said reforms really didn’t play much of a role in the subsequent elections (save for Medicare). Being ‘a safe pair of hands’ was wot won on most occasions.
His agenda for the next 18 months will be 100% cost of living (and hopefully burying offshore wind farms as an idea – at least those within visual range of potentially pissed off voters that matter).
Thank you, BK and good morning all.
‘On the subject of the latest jobs-for-the-boys scandal engulfing Transport Minister Jo Haylen, the SMH editorial says that in defending the indefensible, the Minns government is treating the NSW public like idiots.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/in-defending-the-indefensible-the-minns-government-is-treating-the-nsw-public-like-idiots-20231105-p5ehpq.html‘
==============================================
Haylen must go. Simple as that.
Charlatan Dutton’s agenda on Indigenous people:
1. Kill Indigenous aspirations for the Voice. This aspiration was grown and nutured under consultation processes funded and supported by Coalition governments of which Dutton was a senior Cabinet minister. Main message from Ugly Dutton to Indigenous people: GAGF.
2. Astroturf resentment, anger and racist hatred.
3. Like any charlatan, promise a referendum on a legislated voice.
4. Like any Ugly, backtrack within weeks on that promise. No explanations. Charlatan Dutton does not do policy explanations. He just does nasty.
5. Call for a royal commission into child sex abuse in Indigenous communities when, as Minister for Home Affairs, he did precisely nothing to implement relevant recommendations that were to hand at the time. This call mirrors other calls which demonstrate that Dutton has some sort of weirdo sexual problem in his head. It also mirrors Trump’s ugly campaign on Clinton running a child sex ring.
6. Oppose any and all legislation and spending programs that might help to close the gap.
So. Here is Ugly Dutton’s agenda: Wreck, lie, stir up division, racism and anger.
Here is a tip: Ugly Dutton will be doing this until the next election.
c@t: The US economy is going pretty well. Electors shouldn’t be too down on Biden because of the economy, and I don’t think they are.
As I follow the US polls, it seems pretty clear to me that many Americans simply do not want someone as old as Biden with their finger on the button: particularly as they have zero trust in the Vice-President, whom they consider to be a ning-nong.
Biden’s problem is not just that he is old, but that he seems old: he comes across as a doddering old grandpa who needs his afternoon nap.
Trump, even though he is as old as Biden, is a predator alpha male. Like Murdoch who, even though he is now in his 90s, nobody would describe as “doddering.”
I just can’t see an easy solution to this problem for the Democrats. Weirdly, their best chance is the fact that Trump is almost certainly going to win the nomination, and then the election will become a contest of what voters find more disturbing: Trump’s authoritarian craziness or Biden’s slide into senility.
If Nikki Haley or even De Santis were the Republican candidate, Biden wouldn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of being re-elected. One of the many things that make the American presidential race pretty much unique in electoral contests around the world is that there is an underlying issue in the mind of most voters of “do I want to spend four years thinking about this person having their finger on the nuclear button.” It’s a bit like the now-extinct question a certain sort of Australian voter used to ask themselves about prospective Prime Ministers: “Would he embarrass us in front of the Queen?”
Except that the question the Americans ask themselves is rather more existential, for the whole of humanity.
#weatheronPB
A short walk, and cool,
under uneven grey skies,
and through rain wet grass.
A wet encore forms,
blurring the nearby houses,
and setting the mood.
Some hot tea beckons.
Morrison IS similar to Abbott.
Both are under the direction of the sky fairy.
Both are both as thick as two planks and rat cunning.
Both were immensely destructive as prime ministers.
Both suffer from relevance deprivation syndrome.
Both have trouble getting a genuine business to pay them to do anything.
Both operate under the tutelege of filthy rich people with axes to grind.
Both were routinely duplicitous in politics.
Both hang around like a bad smell.
There is one big difference and it is probably best not to let Tony know about this.
Jesus will have sent an eagle to Scomo to let him know that his recent political problems are a test, a bit like forty days and forty nights in the desert and that there will be a second coming.
AE: “Come to think of it, Hawke was elected on a motherhood statement”
That’s a bit unfair. The Accord was actually an important personal achievement on Hawke’s part that paved the way for the success of his government. The deal with the unions which stymied the sort of militant wage demands that broke out after Whitlam was elected was predicated on the provision of non-wage benefits such as Medicare, enhanced family payments and child care subsidies, and, later, superannuation and other good stuff. I’m not sure that anyone other than Hawke could have set all of this in motion.
“…the reforms of his government were mainly done incrementally by effective minsters ”
That was the beauty of Hawke’s leadership style. Everything didn’t have to be all about him all of the time. But I can tell you that he was an extremely shrewd judge of which policies would fly and which wouldn’t. He encouraged ministers to come to him with their proposals at an early stage in their development and he would give them detailed feedback. If he was happy with the way things were going, he’d then back off and let them get on with taking them through ERC, where Keating would unleash that savage bulldog Finance Minister Peter Walsh onto them. If they got mauled too much for his liking, he would sometimes intervene, but otherwise he’d keep his distance. And he generally wouldn’t even try to get too involved in launching or selling the new policies.
But he always knew exactly what was going on in extraordinary detail. He had a remarkable ability not to want to dip his oar into situations when it wasn’t necessary. Not many political leaders have ever possessed that knack.
“Scott, Morrison is not going to do a Tony Abbott. He is gone from the next election, it did not do Tony any good hanging around, and Morrison won’t make the same mistake.”
@Michael
Ha! It’s Scott Morrison where talking about. Remember? The guy who was swearing himself into ministries without his fellow cabinet ministers knowledge.
If it suits him to stay on he will stay on. Whether the Liberals will let him is another matter. I doubt Peter Dutton would want him to stay on. But I’m not convinced Dutton has the ticker to blast him out either.
The guy who put his hand on Prime Minister Turnbull’s shoulder in front of the national media and said “I’m with stupid.”
Expert warns ‘furious’ Trump may ‘explode’ during New York fraud trial testimony
Donald Trump may “explode” with anger during Monday’s testimony in a $250 million fraud trial.
Former federal prosecutor Jennifer Rodgers explained to CNN that she expected to see “fireworks” at the hearing.
“I think this could really be some fireworks tomorrow,” she observed on Sunday. “Donald Trump is famously undisciplined as a speaker. He is furious about this case.”
“He’s been talking, of course, at length about how the judge is out to get him and the AG is out to get him,” she noted. “So the question is, I don’t know that he’ll just be smug. I mean, he may explode tomorrow.”
https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-testimony-explode/
meher baba
Appreciate your sentiments with respect to the tragic happenings in Daylesford. It’s beyond sad.
With all the death and destruction occurring around the world, it is somewhat difficult to stay optimistic. Sigh…….
I continue to believe that Biden and the dems will get over the line primarily on the issue of womens reproductive rights.
Morrison will be put under enormous pressure to go. It’s not as if the NSW Libs have many safe Federal seats to give away these days. Now that it appears that Ley has survived in Farrer, Cook will be an enormously tempting prize for the Christian far right of the NSW Libs (to whom, despite what many people think, ScoMo certainly does not belong).
How they prise him out is not entirely clear. But they’ll probably find a way.