Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)

Resolve Strategic finds an ongoing weakening in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, but little sign of damage to Labor on voting intention.

I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, but the papers’ collective Resolve Political Monitor page features results of the latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll (hat tip to Nadia88 in comments), an early intimation of which was Saturday’s New South Wales state results. The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. I make this out to be 57-43 in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, little changed on last month, which maintains the pollster’s form as the strongest series for Labor.

Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his very good plus good performance rating being down five to 39% with poor plus very poor up three to 46%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 35% and 40%. Conversely, Peter Dutton records his best results yet from Resolve Strategic, being rated favourably by 35% (up five, although the previous result was down five on the one before) and unfavourably by 40% (down five on the last poll and three on the one before). Albanese leads 40-27 on preferred prime minister, in from 47-25 last time. The lack of accompanying reporting leaves us none the wiser on field work dates and sample size, but it was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of about 1600.

UPDATE: The Age/Herald report relates the poll was conducted the Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1602. It also has further results illustrating growing economic pessimism, with between 41% to 46% expecting conditions to worsen over various time frames from a month to a year, with the share expecting improvement increasing from 5% for a month from now to 23% for a year. The 70% who said they expected more interest rate rises this year were vindicated shortly after the poll was conducted, and fully 64% said they expected inflation to get worse in the near future, which is not strictly speaking what any economic forecaster expects.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

643 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 35, Coalition 30, Greens 13 (open thread)”

Comments Page 13 of 13
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  1. C@tmomma @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 6:55 pm:

    “Why do you think Lars Von Trier went all the way back to Whitlam?”
    =================

    C@tmomma, Lars comes from a world in which ‘Whitlam’ is actually a dirty word (hard to comprehend, I know). I think the main reason he reached back that far was simply to put their two names in the same sentence together. I think he wanted to do this out of a belief that such an association would be negative for PM Albanese. Anyway, that’s my take.

  2. Macarthur,
    Liberals live for casting negative comparisons between Labor PMs. It’s so they don’t have to talk about the great work the Labor PMs are doing and their own draconian policies.

  3. Message to the Lars and Rex unity ticket…

    “Airbus Albo” speaks of the dreary parochialism in Canberra politics and the need for critics of prime ministerial travel to get out more. Australia is not some LGA, so the political class should strive to be less municipal. Albanese is not the mayor of Marrickville. Rather, he is the leader of the world’s 12th-biggest economy and one of this century’s more strategically significant countries. To moan about excessive travel is to deny Australia’s consequentiality and speaks of a self-belittling streak that has held the country back since the turn of the 21st century.

    To argue that international travel is a distraction from domestic concerns is also myopic. Foreign policy is domestic policy. Even if you subscribe to the view that all politics is local – which is highly contestable in this globalised age where so many issues, from the environment to pandemic management, are transnational – all economics is global. If stabilising the relationship with China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, means more trips to Beijing, Shanghai and the summits where Xi Jinping is in attendance then that is surely a sensible investment of prime ministerial time.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-not-the-mayor-of-marrickville-so-let-s-eject-the-airbus-albo-stuff-20231113-p5ejhr.html

  5. A ship of fools:

    Dutton lying, Howard assimilating, Dutton lying, Abbott climate killing, Dutton lying, Abetz knifing, Dutton lying, Joyce snouting, Dutton lying, Paterson snouting, Dutton lying, Morrison freelancing, Dutton lying, Price trans-deforming, Dutton lying, Reynolds suing, Dutton lying, Joyce carping, Dutton saving whales, Littleproud pushing the nuclear button, Dutton lying, Broadbent CROSSbenching, Dutton lying, lying, lying..

  7. Lars Von Trier
    Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.

    Interesting fact: No one gives a fuck.

  8. Shogun says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 7:38 pm
    Thank you for that article sprocket. I am so fucking sick of this “Airbus Albo” shite. The next time someone utters this tedious “Airbus Albo” line, they deserve to have a Boeing 737 shoved up their arse.

    ___________________________________

    Totally agree. Albanese and Wong have a huge amount of work to do to clean up the international relations mess left by a decade of Coalition incompetence. Nothing can substitute for personal interaction at high level meetings. And we’ve all heard of the put-down “dial it in”.

  9. Shogun says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 7:39 pm
    Lars Von Trier
    Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.

    Interesting fact: No one gives a fuck.

    ______________________________

    Another interesting fact is that Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin did not fly overseas once!

  10. So.
    Morrison did more trips than Albanese.
    Morrison did them for holidays at times of national crisis.
    Morrison’s major foreign policy achievement was to cause China to inflict $20 billion per annum in trade punishments.

  12. Lars Von Trier @ #285 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 7:53 pm

    Clearly some in the Govt are starting to see the “travel problem” . Even Marles is flying commercial according to this article:

    https://www.capitalbrief.com/article/jim-chalmers-to-be-pm-for-half-a-day-as-questions-mount-over-richard-marles-travel-02c0e54b-f05f-4912-a4b3-6025f0c06dd8/preview/

    You really had to scratch around to find that article, Lars Von Trier. 😐

    Oh well, it’s your life to waste that way. Like I said the other day, it’s a most uninteresting life that you lead.

  14. The ABC’s unusual decision to film Monday night’s episode of Q+A without a live studio audience was prompted by safety concerns following angry clashes between pro-Palestine and pro-Israel protesters in Caulfield last week.

    The invitation to be part of the studio audience and to put questions directly to panellists, particularly politicians, is a key attribute of the long-running current affairs discussion program. However, an ABC source, speaking on background because they were not authorised to comment publicly, said management had concerns about the feasibility of hosting a crowd for an episode dedicated to the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza even before the protest on Friday.

    https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/abc-decision-to-ditch-q-a-audience-prompted-by-caulfield-protests-20231114-p5ejxy.html

    They should just bite the bullet and ditch Q&A. It adds nothing to the public discourse and hasn’t for quite some time.

  16. Shogun says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 7:38 pm

    Thank you for that article sprocket. I am so fucking sick of this “Airbus Albo” shite. The next time someone utters this tedious “Airbus Albo” line, they deserve to have a Boeing 737 shoved up their arse.
    _____________________

    And it is just a re-hash of all the Kevin747 shit after the 2007 election just unoriginal and boring.

  18. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 6:33 pm
    Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.
    ————

    Worst comparison ever, 50 years difference. The world is an ever so slightly different place I’d say.

  20. This year already, bank mortgage customers from the NAB, ANZ and Westpac alone have placed an extraordinary $9 billion into mortgage offset accounts. So in challenging times, where is all this money coming from?

    As ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott noted on Monday: “Getting credit is slowly becoming the preserve of the rich… The average income today of a person getting a home loan is materially higher than the average citizen and that gap [is] continuing to grow. If you want a loan you have to be better off, or essentially be rich.”

    https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/banks-mystified-by-where-all-the-offset-money-is-coming-from-20231114-p5ejrj

  22. Albo is now the 24th longest-serving of Australia’s 31 Prime Ministers to date. After nearly 18 months in power, he has passed the three caretakers, Fadden (who lost the confidence of the House after 39 days) and three short term PM’s from the unstable early days before WWI. In a little over six months from now, he will have overtaken McMahon, Holt and Abbott.

    Fun fact: only 15 PMs have served three years or more.
    Fun fact 2: only 7 have served over five years.

    For most who make it, the Prime Ministership of Australia is not usually a long-term gig.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office

  23. @frednk

    Ah, but you fail to understand the fact that it is a Liberal Party opposition leader criticizing a Labor Party Prime Minister, so according to the Media, that is newsworthy in itself, outrageous to the establishment bunyip aristocracy. Only when those roles are reversed can there be a reversion to the standard, the lion is safe in his den, and all is well in the world with the right wing in power, apparently.

  24. frednk @ #298 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 9:47 pm

    So this is Australian political news. A opposition leader criticizing the PM for doing his job. Bullshit stacked on bullshit.

    As Nick Bryant puts it so well:

    “Airbus Albo”. In those two words, there is so much to unpack. It speaks first of the dumbing down of democracy and the tedious tendency to reduce political discourse to headline-grabbing slogans. Maybe social media is to blame. Maybe political sledging has always been a bit seventh grade. But sloganeering has now become the lingua franca of modern-day politics. Points-scoring theatrics and the amateur dramatics of faux outrage have replaced more serious dialogue. Grown-up bipartisanship in foreign affairs is being replaced by sophomoric name-calling.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-not-the-mayor-of-marrickville-so-let-s-eject-the-airbus-albo-stuff-20231113-p5ejhr.html

  25. I see that Peter Dutton’s plans for a small modular reactor industry have embarrassingly crashed and burned.

    Small modular nuclear reactor that was hailed by Coalition as future cancelled due to rising costs

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/09/small-modular-nuclear-reactor-that-was-hailed-by-coalition-as-future-cancelled-due-to-rising-costs

    Just as my gut instinct told me about this mob. Scratch the surface and there’s not much there. Good day for Chris Bowen. Terrible day for Ted O’Brien and Dutton.

  26. Lars Von Trier
    “Interesting fact: Albo has done more overseas trips (18) in 18 months than Whitlam did in 3 years. Gough did 12 trips in his first 2 years.’

    Interesting fact: Albo still has not done one trip overseas to see Hawaii, the tennis at Wimbeldon or the cricket at Lords as PM. That is because he has been busy working.

    If I see Albo’s trips to non-work locations ever come close to the travel rort totals of Abbott or Morrison, that would be interesting.

  27. @Charles

    You say that, but it’s not like any of his lies has damaged the Dutton Coalition’s political prospects so far.

    They can pretty much just go out there with a press release and declare a policy in which they build Mickeymousium-powered reactors by 2050 and it would be treated as totally serious by the mainstream media to the extent that they repeatedly demand to ask Labor ministers why they don’t invest in the same.

  28. Charles you need to get in touch with reality. The SMR was cancelled due to rising costs. Not feasible yet. If you applied the same cost control and return on investment to solar and wind power nothing gets built and we use coal power for ever. Experts are now saying Bowen’s chances of reaching his joke of 2030 target have the same odds as Australia having a person on Mars by the end of year. The whole decarbonisation process is falling in heap and India is massively now expanding its coal fired power and China continues to add to its coal power fleet so whatever the little piece of waste of time we do is totally cancelled out by these other 2 countries.

  30. “ Experts are now saying …”

    Which ones you hopeless, disgusting hack, ‘michael’ from Menzies house.

    SMR will never be a significant part of the energy mix. Mainly because they lack the heft to do anything that matters. … THAT is on top of all the other metrics which they fail, even when considered generously in the ‘ideas’ phase.

    You’re just gaslighting. Your mob had 9 years to land an energy policy – even a bad one, and now you are campaigning for a change back to them – the dunces of all dunces – so they can have another go at a decade of inaction. … just fuck off.

  32. Andrew Earlwood

    “ Albo did attend the cricket in a chariot with Indian PM Modhi in India back in March, Socrates. So there is that.”

    Fair point. That is one. I suspect Howard, Abbott and Morrison all chalked up much higher totals of gratuitous travel at public expense. And meeting Modhi was not really gratuitous.

  33. I had someone put to me that the reason for the current inflationary pressures are that post the GFC and again with a Pandemic the RBA not only reduced interest rates but injected liquidity into the system – and now we have inflation also due to Labor spending

    I let them carry on

    Then asked the question that absent the reductions in interest rates and the injection of liquidity thru those periods what would the impacts on society (and the economy) have been?

    If the response was austerity including government austerity what would the outcome have been?

    Where would we be today?

    The questions were not respond to – only that the inflation we see today is the fault of the RBA and Labor

    I also asked why, when the government response was austerity post 2013, why the Cash Rate continued at the rates it did leading into the Pandemic (it is noted that leading into 2013 the government was winding back supports and the Cash Rate was increasing to neutral settings – then came the austerity wrecking ball from which the economy did not recover, evidenced by the Cash Rate)

    Again no response other than the current circumstances being down to the RBA and Labor – ignoring where other Central Banks find themselves

    There was a time when the business lobby was the foundations of the Liberal Party and they had some claim to economic literacy (noting one man’s pay rise was another man’s job, so sectional in their interests exclusively

    Now we have the IPA and the Pentecostals

    And the members of the Portsea Golf Club property icon Beck has taken issue with

    They really are pathetic excuses who give fact to Malcom Fraser saying the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party

    And how many years ago was that?

    The person who attempted to engage me is retired, then bemoaning that their asset position precluded them from accessing the Pension or a part pension, that they were asset rich but cash poor, invested into Bitcoin and Gold etc etc which did not provide revenue streams

    Plus that with interest rates rising they had their Regional investment house on the marker because the interest rate increases saw the cash flow from the property negative

    The mind boggles

    But they are out there

    Mind you the Kooyong MP copped a spray also because her profile and performance has closed off Frydenberg returning to lead the Nation

    Seriously!!!

  35. This is a good explanation of why the idea of nuclear energy in Australian is nonsense.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/is-nuclear-energy-feasible-in-australia-and-how-much-would-it-cost-20231004-p5e9qc.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true

    So wind and solar cost $60-100/megawatt/hour, while the estimate for nuclear was $200-350, in the CSIRO/AMEO study. US studies have produced similar numbers. Nuclear makes no economic sense.

    Also consider that even authoritarian states take 15 years to build and commission a nuclear power plant, and Australia has no nuclear industry or regulatory framework for nuclear, which would be needed before we even start. We can’t wait 15+ years.

    We already have the technology solution to burning fossil fuels for energy. It’s wind and solar.

  36. I recall Cormann taking ownership of an RAAF jet to tour Europe for a month or so. Authorised by Scummo when the rat wanted to desert the sinking ship. Nothing to do with his Aussie job, no report about the trip. I suppose the crew enjoyed a once in a lifetime tour of duty.

  37. Again, SMRs do not exist.

    It is just Dutton and his Make Australia Great Again bullshit.

    A ploy to keep burning fossil fuels, which will kill the planet.

  38. I just saw a graphic on X that showed the profits earned by the big 4, CBA $10.2 Billion, Westpac $7.2 Billion, ANZ $7.4 Billion, and NAB $7.7 Billion. That’s about $1,250 for every man, woman, and child in Australia. There are many smaller banks not included in that total. I use Bendigo where their profit was a mere $249 Million, a measly increase of only 49.3% on last year.

    We also know that Woolworths and Coles have increased their profits among nearly all other big businesses. On top of that we have numerous small business owners swanning around in giant SUV’s and using every trick in the book to avoid paying tax. A hundred years ago the country rode on the sheeps back but now it rides on the backs of the PAYE wage earners.

    And on top of that we have an inflation problem where we are told there is no price gouging and that the solution is to smash mortgage holders and restrain wages.

    It’s time we mimicked the French and had a revolution. Let the tumbrels roll and get madame guillotine to sort out the board room bastards once and for all.

    This will set the scene;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sh4kz_zhyo&ab_channel=Vadok

  39. frednksays:
    Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 9:47 pm
    “So this is Australian political news. A opposition leader criticizing the PM for doing his job. Bullshit stacked on bullshit.”

    The people now living in “properties”, over indulging in “a vast menu” of overpriced opinions, with the “rarest” of awareness have demeaned the “Bunyip Aristocracy” in a parody best described by “if you didn’t laugh you’d cry” proportions.

    The “desperately seeking gotcha” media together with the “witless” Liberals have “plonked” for “the butler”, starched cries of “we want the government to explain” in every utterance and a trajectory not unlike Ben Hut’s chariot. ( Burke and Wills perhaps)

    The “makeover” of the “we built the nation” wannabe Deputy PM of “corrugated iron and fibro” fame is reality TV and the “gotcha media” at its finest.
    Everyone loves a “good romance” !

    The “bile” produced by the “Bunyip Aristocracy” is just about the “go to” subject for every “blossoming” double degree media “tart”.

    “Michael” from PB should be lauded for his preference for “pissing into the wind” at every corner. Epic!

    The “trending” in the polls is alarming and an “inspiring” halftime spray for the “reigning premiers” maybe needed to “hold the trophy aloft” again

    Imagine if “the butler” did become PM !

  41. B.S.Fairman @ 1.24pm
    Watching Question Time, over the past couple of afternoons, I was wondering why Dan Tehan was getting to ask so many questions – as he appeared to be a silent, except when interjecting, presence on the CLP front bench.
    I thought that the recent polling had spoken the CLP, and as you pointed out having been nearly Tealed at the 2022 Election he was being given the opportunity to raise his electoral profile.
    It was only later that I discovered that he is a ministerial shadow.
    If current polling is realised, at the 2025 election, then his seat, will be one of at least six seats which may be lost to the ALP or community Independents.
    My Vic list comprises (with current electoral margins):
    Deakin – 0.19%, Menzies – 0.68%, Casey – 1.48%, Monash – 2.9%, Nichols – 3.81% & Wannon – 3.92%.
    Once the redistribution results are finalised then the ALP & community independents need to be preselected and start campaigning.

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