I’m not seeing any reporting on it in the Sydney Morning Herald or The Age, but the papers’ collective Resolve Political Monitor page features results of the latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll (hat tip to Nadia88 in comments), an early intimation of which was Saturday’s New South Wales state results. The federal primary vote shares have Labor down two on last month to 35%, the Coalition down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 7%. I make this out to be 57-43 in Labor’s favour on two-party preferred, little changed on last month, which maintains the pollster’s form as the strongest series for Labor.
Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, his very good plus good performance rating being down five to 39% with poor plus very poor up three to 46%. Peter Dutton is respectively at 35% and 40%. Conversely, Peter Dutton records his best results yet from Resolve Strategic, being rated favourably by 35% (up five, although the previous result was down five on the one before) and unfavourably by 40% (down five on the last poll and three on the one before). Albanese leads 40-27 on preferred prime minister, in from 47-25 last time. The lack of accompanying reporting leaves us none the wiser on field work dates and sample size, but it was presumably conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of about 1600.
UPDATE: The Age/Herald report relates the poll was conducted the Wednesday to Sunday before last from a sample of 1602. It also has further results illustrating growing economic pessimism, with between 41% to 46% expecting conditions to worsen over various time frames from a month to a year, with the share expecting improvement increasing from 5% for a month from now to 23% for a year. The 70% who said they expected more interest rate rises this year were vindicated shortly after the poll was conducted, and fully 64% said they expected inflation to get worse in the near future, which is not strictly speaking what any economic forecaster expects.
Mary Aldred = Alan Tudge’ step sister.
Liberal party sure is a broadchurch.
Or should that be a Broadbent?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/14/mp-kate-chaney-launches-bid-to-overturn-ban-on-accessing-assisted-dying-appointments-via-telehealth
Grime @ #117 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:17 am
A nepotistic one.
I’m still of the opinion that the Authoritarian Axis of Evil have instituted the furore that should not speak its name, except as it applies to Australia and the Australian government, to split Progressive governments and enable RW governments to benefit from it.
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 11:27 am:
“I’m still of the opinion that the Authoritarian Axis of Evil have instituted the furore that should not speak its name, except as it applies to Australia and the Australian government, to split Progressive governments and enable RW governments to benefit from it.”
===========================
C@tmomma – Hamas’ terror attacks on civilians across Israel on Oct 7 make absolutely no sense, except as part of a broader conflict against ‘the West’ (represented here by Israel). There has been at least one ‘team huddle’ in Moscow between Russia, Iran and Hamas since this all blew up.
I only hope that democratic nations with a commitment to the accurate recording of historical truth are the ones left standing when all this finally quietens down. That way, at least, the actual events leading up to this shitstorm will be set down for posterity.
I enjoy the Trumpian conspiracy theories.
Until today my favourite was that John F Kennedy Jr. had staged his death in a light plane crash to escape an assassination attempt by Hilary Clinton. He will shortly reappear and be Donald’s running mate for 2024. The conspirators have even taken photos of him, although it appears he has had disguising surgery which has reduced his height by 20cms.
I learned something today: The Donald is the love child of General George Patton and Edvidge Mussolini (who would have been 57 yrs old at the time of his conception. It could also be mentioned that Patton was famously humping his own niece at the time). He is thus the nephew of Il Duce.
Patton was, of course, a descendant of Christ through Mary Magdalene and Trump is obviously the messiah, for the coming end days.
https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/topic/354332-trump-is-the-nephew-of-mussolini/
Hi Socrates:
One of the most retrograde aspects of AUKUS is the narrow casting of allies. Sure, there may be other participants in time, but only those prepared to kiss Washington’s ring and accept the preeminence of the anglosphere and its particular ‘values’.
Far from being a premature assessment, as pollyanna C@t hopes and prays, this is an overt design feature.
And yet … It is not just australia that needs a set of broad and deep alliances. This part of your quote is particularly apt:
“ The democracies will either hang together or, most assuredly, they will hang separately. The AUKUS strategic alignment has chosen to hang separately.”
The security aspects of technology sharing at the heart of AUKUS effectively guarantees that the European MIC will overtime be shut out of any Australian defence procurement of significance. The Americans and the brits have us over the barrel as it is. This will only magnify.
The insular nature of AUKUS will hang as a lead weight around our head as we attempt to develop anything more than the shallowest of relationships with Indonesia and the rest of ASEAN. Far from being counterbalanced by closer relationships in north Asia, it will actually make australia far more vulnerable to being drawn into conflicts in that sub-region that are simply not Australia’s strategic concerns.
Of course the whole AUKUS posture is entirely reliant on an “all in” poker table bet that America’s present posture towards china will stay consistent over the remainder of this century, that such a posture is actually credible and that America will also demonstrate the willingness to ‘stay in the fight’ for that period. All of which are very low percentage bets.
In short, as my one word initial response to the AUKUS announcement back on the morning of 16 September 2021 said: “catastrophe”.
Some interesting developments. Some members of congress should be a little uncomfortable right about now.
———
OLEKSANDER DUBINSKY – CO-CONSPIRATOR OF GIULIANI WHO ATTACKED JOE BIDEN – CHARGED WITH TREASON IN UKRAINE FOR WORKING WITH RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE
I’m a bit surprised by Broadbent’s decision to go to the cross-bench. It doesn’t seem to be a high matter of principle, but rather a dummy spit.
Preselection for a major party for a winnable seat involves a heavy commitment by the party of financing and campaigning, not to mention the fact that others in the party are then excluded from the position for the electoral cycle.
Unless a move to the cross-bench is on a matter of serious principle and being required to support a position you are vehemently and morally opposed to (like, IMHO, Andrew Gee) then it’s an indulgence that is a poor return for support over the years.
Same applies to other parties. No time for Thorpe either for that reason. And who could ever forget Mal Colston?
Victoria says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 11:43 am
Some interesting developments. Some members of congress should be a little uncomfortable right about now.
_________________________________
Should. But they never seem to be.
TPOF @ #450 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:18 am
Thanks.
https://youtu.be/qEwGIS3y32A?si=ignC3xOnbRSoksNE
TPOF
The wheels of justice turn very slowly, but turn they do. Lol
JFK would now be 106 years old…
Steve777 @ #463 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:50 am
Its actually Jon-Jon (salute the casket Jon-Jon) who is going to the Donald’s running mate, but in any case JFK is also a descendant of Christ and obviously age, or for that matter death, is irrelevant.
Steve777 @ #463 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:50 am
Is that all.
Although, it does raise the question of how resurrection occurs.
The Zapruder film shows that JFK would have very little cerebral cortex left and that which was removed at autopsy has been lost by the national archives. So how do all the bits come back together?
Itza
Thanks in turn. Did you see Australian Story last night about TwoSet Violin. I’d never heard of them but it was a really interesting story (and not just the music).
Link, if you haven’t:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-13/taking-a-bow-brett-yang-eddy-chen-australian-story-twoset-violin/103100430
Oakeshott country @ Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 11:56 am:
“Although, it does raise the question of how resurrection occurs.
The Zapruder film shows that JFK would have very little cerebral cortex left and that which was removed at autopsy has been lost by the national archives. So how do all the bits come back together?”
=================
This hypothetical presupposes a God who created absolutely everything in existence ex nihilo, and that’s your question? 😉
Oakeshott country @ #466 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:56 am
I was wondering about that my self recently.How does god plan to get the headless ones, drawn/quartered,shark victims and vaporised Hiroshima /Nagasaki victims back together for the resurrection shuffle?
I was wondering about that my self recently.How does god plan to get the headless ones, drawn/quartered,shark victims and vaporised Hiroshima /Nagasaki victims back together for the resurrection shuffle?
______________________________
It’s the soul – think!
TPOF @ #470 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:05 pm
Rubber or leather?
TPOF @ #361 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:05 pm
What about the ‘r’ soul?
Andrew Earlwood
Yes I thought you would appreciate that article. In a sense it describes what could go wrong, not what is guaranteed to go wrong. It could work out if well managed. Though IMO that will require a level of technical competence on the part of the administrators (not the Senators) that has not been in evidence in any recent RAN contract.
But the mere fact that the new tech sharing laws are being proposed for all defense technology and not only naval technology illustrates the extent of the potential problem. Why extend it to things nothing to do with nuclear subs?
For example, why limit ourselves to US and UK for sharing AFV tech for the Army? That would cut out both Rheinmettal for the Boxer AFV and Hanwa for the Redback IFV. Neither the USA nor UK are internationally competitive in that field, so we would be restricted to those competitors unable to win open market tenders.
It is not only our defence imports but our potential exports. Consider the “Loyal Wingman” aerial combat drone, a world first, developed and flown by Boeing in Qld. Are we now only allowed to export it to USA and UK? Australian taxpayers paid for the IP.
And we could probably kiss goodbye ever getting an EU free trade deal.
I hope those who boast of such agreements as their career achievements stop to count up:
1. The jobs and contracts we had previously had with the same partner without the agreement, and
2. The jobs and contracts we lose by closing off agreements with other partners.
TPOFsays:
Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 11:45 am
I’m a bit surprised by Broadbent’s decision to go to the cross-bench. It doesn’t seem to be a high matter of principle, but rather a dummy spit.
_____________________
He is 72. Time to piss off.
McArthur stayed on too long in Corangamite, ended up losing the seat and which has proved difficult to win back
Pure selfishness.
yabba @ #472 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:12 pm
yabba @ #472 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:12 pm
Not the rsole
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/sharp-drop-in-australia-s-economic-competitiveness-20231109-p5eiv3: “Energy infrastructure, lacklustre entrepreneurship and poor competition rules …”
(CCC/ Nine etc paywalled)
“ Trump’s campaign spokesman reacted to the far-reaching criticism by doubling down and repeating Trump’s call to eradicate his domestic enemies. Steven Cheung told the Post in response that “those who try to make that ridiculous assertion are clearly snowflakes grasping for anything because they are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome and their entire existence will be crushed when President Trump returns to the White House.”
——————————-
Very troubling, intentional and excessively aggressive speech by Trump. Let nobody be in doubt as to what will happen if he’s elected next year.
TPOF @ #467 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:00 pm
Great story thanks, so heart warming, and so much there. Half way through, but have to put on hold for later. (Off to Syderney olympic city.)
Cronus
“Very troubling, intentional and excessively aggressive speech by Trump. Let nobody be in doubt as to what will happen if he’s elected next year.”
Yes AUKUS won’t be the only thing killed off. NATO would be at serious risk of only continuing without USA.
Broadbent has been a permanent backbencher because on many issues he was a damp echo of the liberals formerly known as wets.
He was also a bit of a maverick, holding the firm view that the horse juice was a covid cure.
He was problematic to manage because, in the absence of anything by way of a ministry, parliamentary sec possie, or committee chairperson, they had very little control over him.
The pre-selection count shows that the party members in Monash (McMillan as was) are significantly to the right of Broadbent.
IMO he has a significant personal following in the electorate. He won the last election with a 2PP vote of 52.9%.
Monash is in play at the next election.
Does that mean that Russell Broadbent will get the extra staff member that independents get?
Imagine if Labor had kept the rule about there being 4 staffers for each indie? The “teals” dummy spit over that last year still rankles a bit.
Did Andrew Gee get an extra staffer?
Australia needs to be thinking about what Plan B might look like and how to pre-position ourselves in the general Plan B direction.
Plan A is at severe threat from the MAGA lunatics and/or from Trump.
TPOF @ #459 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 11:45 am
Ivermectin will do that to you.I mean just look at Trump and clearly what he believes was his stolen election.
My biggest concern with AUKUS is that it’s limited to obviously English speaking allies. There’s no logic for it not to include suitable key Asian and European allies that would only strengthen it, militarily at least. And in the event that Trump is re-elected next year throwing its future existence into doubt, a broader AUKUS could still survive and be effective.
Snap Socrates, I just saw your post now.
ItzaDream says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 12:21 pm
TPOF @ #467 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:00 pm
Itza
Thanks in turn. Did you see Australian Story last night about TwoSet Violin. I’d never heard of them but it was a really interesting story (and not just the music).
Link, if you haven’t:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-13/taking-a-bow-brett-yang-eddy-chen-australian-story-twoset-violin/103100430
Great story thanks, so heart warming, and so much there. Half way through, but have to put on hold for later. (Off to Syderney olympic city.)
————-
It was excellent imo and quite uplifting.
Boerwar @ #480 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:25 pm
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it went to the nats,the seat is full of conservative right wing nut jobs that always know what’s best for others.
”I was wondering about that my self recently.How does god plan to get the headless ones, drawn/quartered,shark victims and vaporised Hiroshima /Nagasaki victims back together for the resurrection shuffle?”
He has a copy of everyone’s DNA, so no worries growing a new body and brain. Also a backup recording of everyone’s memories / experiences, which he is able to upload into a new brain.
Or, being outside time, he can work in all dimensions. So he downloads the content of someone’s brain and DNA from a point in their lives when it was intact.
Why he would bother is another question.
Broadbent’s move only makes the Libs chances just that bit more difficult come the next election. They’re not travelling well at all since losing Aston and now Monash on top of the seats lost in 2022.
Steve777 @ #487 Tuesday, November 14th, 2023 – 12:35 pm
Amusement value.
He is 72. Time to piss off.
McArthur stayed on too long in Corangamite, ended up losing the seat and which has proved difficult to win back
Pure selfishness.
@Taylormade
It’s tough to argue with this he’s been there since 1990. There is a couple especially in the Liberal ranks who well and truly had outstayed their welcome and were literally forced out.
Bronwyn Bishop, Kevin Andrews, Tony Abbott, the Liberals had to give Phillip Ruddock a job to leave. Bishop is the biggest hypocrite out of the lot. She accused Malcolm Turnbull of being a ‘socialist’. The same Turnbull who had a very successful career in the private sector and was a self-made millionaire. Unlike Bishop who pretty much spent most of her career on the public purse and racked up Limousine rides and helicopter trips at tax payers expense. There was nothing small government or limited government about her career.
Scott Morrison recent behavior I can see him fighting hard to stay on. Its possible the NSW Liberal party hierarchy will stop him. But like what happened to Abbott it’s also possible he gets turfed from the electorate who has grown tired of him.
Low-rating, out of touch Q+A needs to be put out of its misery (Peter van Onselen)
It’s not hard to see why its biased coverage of the voice was so out of whack with how Australians voted. The ABC program’s slide into irrelevance post-Tony Jones is embarrassing.
Wouldnt that be the same for the even lower ratings of Sky News and Sky News After Dark?
Broadbent’s move only makes the Libs chances just that bit more difficult come the next election. They’re not travelling well at all since losing Aston and now Monash on top of the seats lost in 2022.
@Cronus
Nationals have indicated they also want to run a candidate in Monash. Despite compulsory preferential voting you would think the split in the conservative vote would do more harm then good. Only a 2.9% margin and with Labor being a powerhouse in Victoria you could hardly suggest this seat is safe as houses for the Liberals.
On AUKUS Rishi Sunail accidentally just said the quiet bit out loud.
“Britain would be hard headed about its interests and security.”
“[deals like AUKUS] would enable Britain to shape the world”.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2023/11/14/sunak-david-cameron-foreign-secretary-aukus/?utm_campaign=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter
Rishi has ordered a MABA cap.
Monash is not Nationals territory. The Liberals are the main conservative power in the area particularly in the towns like Warragul, Drouin, Leongatha and Wonthaggi and the retire populations on Philip Island and along the coast.
The population of the Warragul-Drouin is just exploding as it basically becomes an exburb of the South East of Melbourne – You can commute to Pakenham in 30-45 minutes or Dandenong South in hour which is better than can be do from some of the new suburbs in the SE of Melbourne. Even places like Poowong are growing because of this.
The margin probably depends on how far to the west the seat moves with the readjustments in Victoria. If it doesn’t creep back into Cardinia shire that margin might get a little smaller.
Also much will depend if Broadbent decides to run as independent at the election. That might result in a small percentage of votes getting “lost” in preferences.
Sunak is on borrowed time as PM. It will be up to Starmer to carry AUKUS on.
Oakeshot re: “I enjoy the Trumpian conspiracy theories”.
The conspiracy theory I am trying to see gain traction is that that Trump, Musk, Boris and Murdoch are all funded by Putin.
it actually would explain a hell of a lot.
Trump as Il Duce’s nephew is doubly funny/scary, because they nutters think that’s a good thing. It does set him up to be known as El Douche though.
“Rishi has ordered a MABA cap.”
Sorry I mistyped. Rishi wants to “Make England Great Again” and ordered a MEGA cap
England expects every Australian taxpayer to do their duty.
Socrates
All that lot (Tories) have destroyed the UK from 1979 onwards, except for the richest. Its far too late for that MEGA bullshit now.
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2023 at 12:54 pm
Broadbent’s move only makes the Libs chances just that bit more difficult come the next election. They’re not travelling well at all since losing Aston and now Monash on top of the seats lost in 2022.
@Cronus
Nationals have indicated they also want to run a candidate in Monash. Despite compulsory preferential voting you would think the split in the conservative vote would do more harm than good. Only a 2.9% margin and with Labor being a powerhouse in Victoria you could hardly suggest this seat is safe as houses for the Liberals.
—————-
PN
Whether Broadbent won as an independent or Labor won, it would be a blow to the Coalition. Even the fact that the Libs will have a new recruit and will have to battle the Nats means they’ll be forced to overextend their limited election resources which ultimate benefits Labor. Anything that makes Dutton’s job more difficult is a bonus.
I don’t think Labor is yet at the high water mark in Victoria. I think that will come at the next election. They could lose more seats and Monash could be one of them. The Redistribution outcome will be fascinating.