The only new poll for the week is the the weekly Roy Morgan federal poll, which for the second time in recent months credits the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead. In this case it’s by the barest margin of 50.5-49.5, compared with 50-50 last week. The poll is also the first for the term with Labor’s primary vote below 30%, having fallen half a point from last week to 29.5%, with the Coalition up half to 37% and the Greens up half to 13.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
Further:
• The Age/Herald had further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll on Sunday, showing 48% support for constitutional recognition of Indigenous people as the first inhabitants of Australia, an even 40% for and against a legislated voice, 33% support for a Commonwealth treaty with 37% opposed, and 35% support for the Makarrata Commission for truth-telling with 31% opposed.
• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian federal redistribution, with both major parties’ new submissions concurring with the conventional wisdom that the state’s new seat will need to be in Perth’s eastern suburbs. Labor proposes a seat called Farmer in honour of local football legend Graham “Polly” Farmer taking out a large part of the current seat of Hasluck, which would deeper into suburbia in the west. The Liberals propose a seat of Court in honour of two of the party’s past premiers, which would likewise take a large chunk of Hasluck, but extend instead beyond the metropolitan area in the conservative territory of the Avon Valley. The deadline for submission for Victoria’s federal redistribution is on Friday, to be published next Wednesday. The finalisation of Western Australia’s state redistribution is also due “no later” than December 1.
• Two Liberal Senate preselections will be held on the weekend, one being to fill the vacancy created by Marise Payne’s retirement in New South Wales. Moderate-aligned former state government minister Andrew Constance is routinely invoked as the front-runner, but Peter Dutton is supporting conservative former ACT Senator Zed Seselja, and Monica Tudehope, former deputy chief-of-staff to Dominic Perrottet and daughter of Finance Minister Damien Tudehope, has support from Business Council of Australia chief executive Bran Black. Also in the field are former parliamentarians Dave Sharma and Lou Amato, NSW RSL president James Brown, and Lowy Institute research fellow Jess Collins.
• A vote of 67 preselectors on Saturday will determine the Tasmanian Liberals’ Senate ticket, in which conservative-backed Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley hopes to wrest the second position from moderate incumbent Richard Colbeck. Conservative incumbent Claire Chandler appears assured of top position, with another conservative, Simon Behrakis, a possibility for the usually unfruitful third position. UPDATE: Informed local observer Kevin Bonham notes in comments that Simon Behrakis has filled a vacancy in state parliament, and is presumably no longer in the running.
(Can’t claim original authorship, Griff.)
Next time I visit Europe, I will grudgingly go to Budapest, capital of the Orbanocracy, but hopefully as a major capital city a tolerably liberal place.
I am looking forward to also going to Vienna, Ljubljana, Munich, Prague and Gdansk.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 7:35 pm
(Can’t claim original authorship, Griff.)
____________
No worries. It is worth repeating 🙂
sprocket_ :
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 7:06 pm
[‘My great grandfather on my mother’s side was Prussian…’]
That explains it all. No one should forget their roots.
Griffsays:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 7:33 pm
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 7:31 pm
C@t: “He’s a chameleon …”
Indeed! Let’s sing along now …
“Sharma, Sharma, Sharma, Sharma
Sharma Chameleon …______________
Post of the day!
_____________________
Must have been a slow day on PB if that gets a gong.
Andrew Constance’s most likely chance of getting back into politics will probably be in the NSW Legislative Council.
Damien Tudehope, the Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House is getting on in years, he’d be 73-74 at the 2027 election so it would seem likely he’ll be retiring this term. If Constance wants in, he’d probably be a likely replacement if that happens, although there is the complication that Tudehope seems to be of the hard right faction while Constance is an established Moderate.
The chances of a third senate seat in Victoria is fairly high for LNP. Under the current rules, the ability of minor right wing parties to preference harvest is low which is how Ricky Muir and DLP won seats before the change of the rules. Hinch won one of there spots in the double dissolution but then again that is only half quotas.
Last year the result at the 2nd last count was:
Babet (UAP): 349,809
Nunn (ALP): 300,798
Mirabella (LIB): 275,509
About 36% of Mirabella’s votes went then to Babet, 26% to Nunn and the rest exhuasted.
It really depends on how well the ring wing minor vote condenses into one candidate before heading to the LNP. Babet did well because he gained a lot of votes from other minor parties before those votes either exhausted or went to the LNP. He even got a few from the anti-establishment types who are more left wing too.
I would rate the LNPs chance of a 3rd at a somewhere around 40 to 50%.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 6:05 pm
Dave Sharma vs Andrew Constance
The people vs head office.
_____________________
Wouldn’t have happened in the ALP I can guarantee you.
Ignore the ALP head office at your own peril.
No same old, same old there.
I’d add that once I received an email from Ancestry.com that my sixth cousin once removed was related to the Sun King. I was thinking at the time, how many degrees of separation are there.
I do have a French surname for sing.
Australian: The Albanese government is considering raising the English language proficiency levels for international students, sparking concerns within the education sector that it could deter 30,000 people a year from applying to study in Australia.
The Australian understands government representatives have been canvassing a proposal to increase the English language level for international student visas, currently an International English Language Testing System required score of 5.5, to a score of six across all testing measures.
The proposed change would bring the level of English required to study in Australia from somewhere between “modest and competent” to align with the level required for a skills visa.
Again, very perceptive of you C@t. I have no doubt at all that you are right about that. It also goes a long way towards explaining why so many of them end up dying in jail IMO. You can’t put FASD youths in a cell and expect them to behave like ‘normal’ prisoners. They don’t understand what’s happening to them and they just go berserk. It’s very cruel actually.
“Next time I visit Europe, I will grudgingly go to Budapest, capital of the Orbanocracy, but hopefully as a major capital city a tolerably liberal place.”
I visited Budapest as a backpacker in 1994. Quirky place with a mix of glorious European architecture an some distinctly Soviet features from the occupation period. Great food and music as I recall. Some beautiful areas next to the river, which flows through broad and magnificent.
Of course that was before Orban and everyone was just happy the Russians were gone.
ABC 26/11
Netball Australia has confirmed it threatened legal action against Diamonds players who planned to boycott their awards ceremony on Saturday night.
While many Super Netball players ended up not attending the ceremony, players who had signed contracts with the Diamonds — Australia’s national squad — were told they were contractually obliged to attend.
_____________________
Australian Netball going from strength to strength after parting ways with Gina Reinhart.
Taylormade:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 7:50 pm
In my view, that you call a spade a shovel is fare enough – serving to dispell complancecy.
Sprocket__
Still pretty cool. East Prussian, at one of the crossroads close to the Austro-Hungarian Empire (as it was named after 1948? Or 1864?).
I seem to be Irish (mostly) and various other British isles people all the way down – although there is that interesting Basque connection to the west of Ireland (where the black hair combined with the fair skin comes from) – around 7%, and the Scandinavian connection (also about 7%), where I get the unbelievably strong bones from. All these are extrapolated from close family members.
On 23&Me, which I will use for my test when I get around to it, my second son found that 40% of his genes came from Cork. This estimation is possible because Cork (southwest) and the west coast of Ireland have populations that have remained in place until pretty much now. And also because a lot of money is spent on researching Irish genes, because so many well-off Americans want to know how Irish they are.
An anecdote: In September I took my mother to see the family sites in Lisgoold, Balinacarrigh, and the big town (Midleton, East Cork, – home of Jamesons), where we stayed.
We had dinner at a Ramen place, and at the next table there was a young man of around 25, who looked just like my youngest son, red hair and all. OH and I both noticed, but assumed that when he moved and changed profile, he would look different – not so, he was our son’s Doppelgänger.
Given the kids are around one eighth indigenous Australian from their father’s side (stolen generation, with all associated trauma), I am quite surprised at how those Cork genes still flourish in the family.
Didn’t know about this liberal party senate battle , Dutton is not having a good day , his pick Greg Mirabella was beaten
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/mirabella-beaten-by-former-preacher-in-senate-preselection-battle-20231126-p5emu4.html
Greg Mirabella has failed in his preselection bid to return to the Senate after lingering resentments from his time as Victorian Liberal Party president splintered the conservative vote.
Mirabella was beaten by Kyle Hoppitt, a 41-year-old small business owner and former Baptist preacher, during a ballot of grassroots members and party officials in Melbourne’s northern suburbs on Sunday.
The vote, which was held at the Moonee Valley Racecourse and ran for more than three hours, had shaped up as a de facto contest between state Opposition Leader John Pesutto and federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. But ultimately, neither of the leaders’ candidates emerged successful.
Mirabella was Dutton’s pick to replace David Van as No.3 on the Liberal Party’s Victorian Senate ticket at the next election, due by 2025, while Pesutto had endorsed the Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s first female president, Karyn Sobels. The businesswoman did not make the final round, which led to Hoppitt receiving about 187 votes to Mirabella’s 173, according to two Liberal sources with knowledge of the vote.
another liberal party woman was beaten in the polling by men NSW and Victoria
Douglas and Milko:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:14 pm
Sprocket__
[‘I seem to be Irish…’]
So it’s what I thought: you’re as bog Irish as OC & Lars, but then again you could be of German extraction.
The federal government is being asked to subsidise builders who bring skilled foreign workers into the country in a bid to cut the cost of new homes, stepping up industry warnings about labour shortages ahead of sweeping changes to the migration intake.
The push comes as new figures confirm the challenge in finding the skilled workers needed to build new homes when housing costs are on the rise. Australia’s migration since May last year has included 1135 carpenters and 215 plumbers.
The building industry has told the government it will need 480,000 new workers over the next three years, ranging from Australian apprentices to skilled foreign workers, to meet growing demand and replace older tradespeople as they leave the workforce.
But the idea of a $10,000 subsidy is intensely controversial when annual migration has soared above official forecasts for 400,000 new arrivals and the federal government is about to reveal new policies to bring the intake under greater control.
The Australian Constructors Association has told the government that the worker shortage is a key factor in stalling major road and rail projects, while Master Builders Australia says the foreign workers are needed to keep costs down.
“A shortage of tradies, including skilled migrant workers, is leading to higher labour costs and delays in construction timelines,” said Master Builders chief executive Denita Wawn. “This ultimately drives up the cost of building and reduces our ability to meet our annual housing targets.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/10k-to-import-a-builder-new-call-on-canberra-to-ease-house-price-pressure-20231124-p5emo0.html
C@t (and Bystander),
Thanks for raising this. Living in Redfern / Waterloo, we see children and adults affected by FASD everyday. It is just so easy for someone to beguile them into drug running / rioting, and this is very much what we are seeing in the NT and FNQ.
20 years ago, the Aboriginal Aunties (often the grandmothers) raised this issue with the various authorities. My Aunt, a developmental paediatrician, went to a conference in Darwin, about this very issue, where the aunties spoke, and drew attention to the fact that there was a whole generation who could not live independently, and the aunties asked for solutions. And they worked so hard to look after their own family and also develop policy – they were not “asking for handouts”.
Fast-forward to now – the jail system has been privatised, drug problems are now treated as a “Law’n Order” problem, rather than a health problem. The USA solution.
Like Andrew E, I would have preferred Jodi McKay to Minns, but Minns is working to take back the jail system into public hands. This will be the first step in a long process to decriminalising the medical condition know as FASD.
D&M, Mrs Sprocket is an Irish Colleen – several generations here, but Catholic as the Pope.
But on 23andme there is some Morrocan genes, and Spanish. You know there was a time in the Middle Ages when the Irish imported Catholic priests from Spain. I’m sure those priests were celibate 🙂
During the Middle Ages trade links between Spain and Ireland flourished. Iron and wine were shipped to Ireland and hides and fish to Spain. Many Irish went as pilgrims to Santiago de Compostela in Galicia; a bolder few travelled in the other direction to St Patrick’s Purgatory, Lough Derg, County Donegal.
https://www.historyireland.com/ireland-spain/#:~:text=During%20the%20Middle%20Ages%20trade,%2C%20Lough%20Derg%2C%20County%20Donegal.
See Scott went with 53-47 for tonight. He is probably far smarter than me but I will take 50-50 and a bit of panic in the coming week.
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:28 pm
Are you sure you don’t have Spanish Amanda sailors blood in you? 24 ships foundered off Ireland.
I suspect that a reshuffle is coming.
Sprocket__
Nope, no slavic.
Edward Gibbon’s wonderfully written tome (4 volumes), “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”, talks about the Magyar invasion of Hungary, from the Steppes of Eurasia.
Hungarian is a language related only to Estonian and Finnish. Gibbon wonders whether the movements from the steppes of Asia to these three regions were from the same language source, or whether in the 100 t0 200 years of migration, the various tribes mingled, thus meaning they had developed some sort of creole (a simplified language structure with many words in common) which then embedded itself in the three different languages.
Modern research does not yet seem to have overtaken Gibbon’s ideas, but of anyone know more, I would be fascinated to hear it.
Australian headline: Labor risks falling into minority government with the possible loss of half a dozen seats.
Highly recommend The Long Shadow on Stan. About the Yorkshire Ripper. Grisly, but you really do feel like you are watching Leeds in 1975. Brilliant job of recreating that time.
Resfuffle? Pretty obvious Albo should move Andrew Giles, Linda Burney, Don Farrell and Stephen Jones.
The obvious people to promote are Annika Wells, Kristy McBain, and from the backbench, Andrew Charlton
ExclusiveMCG set for dual Tests in 2026-27 after New Zealand deal
Thanks naff but no thanks, eschewing violence. I’m off.
Mavis,
Oh dear – you have sussed me out. Definitely bog Irish, but I am not aware of any German. But then again, Prussia and the Rheinland may be called “Germany” now, but I am, from the bottom of my heart, a Rheinlander.
Working in Bonn so many times, hearing the thunderstorms striking over the Drachenfels. I was sure I could hear the voices of Die Walküre in the amazing sonic display. In fact I posted about it on Pollbludger in 2019 (or 2014?) . I was there for work in both times.
Wouldn’t have happened in the ALP I can guarantee you.
Ignore the ALP head office at your own peril.
No same old, same old there.
@Taylormade
Yeah, I have heard this crap before from the Liberals ‘unlike Labor our pre-selections are decided by the members’. Ofcourse, they don’t want to talk about all the captain picks or parachutes they have done.
Sprocket__
Ohh – interesting.
I remember saying to my cousin’s partner, in around 1993, that Ireland had suffered the same invasions / “trade deals” as England, and hence the Irish, Scottish and English, were of the same racial stock, so the differences were cultural. He challenged me to go the Gaelic club in Surry Hills, Sydney, and announce this “fact”.
ALP 31 L-NP 38 Green 13 ON 6 others 12
Labor’s primary vote has tumbled to below its 2022 election result for the first time with both major parties now neck and neck on a two-party-preferred basis as cost-of-living pressures escalate and the Albanese government faces a mounting list of political and policy crises.
An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote falling four points to 31 per cent in the past three weeks.
The government now heads into the final parliamentary sitting of the year with its primary support lower than its election result of 32.6 per cent. The Coalition’s primary vote has lifted a point to 38 per cent – its highest level of support since the election.
In two-party-preferred terms, this puts Labor and the Coalition at 50-50 for the first time, on the back of a four-point turnaround since the last Newspoll on November 3.
Newspoll
TPP ALP 50 (-2) L/NP 50 (+2)
Primary ALP 31 (-4) L/NP 38 (+1) GRN 13 (+1) ON 6 () OTH 12 (+2)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-abandon-anthony-albanese-as-labors-fortunes-nosedive/news-story/75db97702fe93193b9fec4af9c421caa
Edit, additional figures below
Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (0) Dutton 35 (-1)
Albanese: Approve 40 (-2) Disapprove 53 (+1)
Dutton: Approve 37 (0) Disapprove 50 (0)
As we used to say in the Navy, you’re good hand.
Mr Albanese’s approval ratings fell a further two points to 40 per cent. This is the Prime Minister’s lowest level of approval since the election. It has fallen 12 points since July. His dissatisfaction levels rose a point to 53 per cent, giving him a net approval rating of minus 13.
Mr Dutton’s approval rating of 37 per cent and disapproval of 50 remained unchanged, giving the Opposition Leader the same net result as Mr Albanese. This is the second poll in a row to show more voters were dissatisfied with Mr Albanese’s performance than they were with Mr Dutton.
The head-to-head contest between the two leaders remained largely unchanged, with Mr Albanese on 46 per cent and Mr Dutton down a point to 35 per cent. The margin between the two leaders has narrowed significantly since July when Mr Albanese enjoyed a 25-point lead over Mr Dutton.
Cost of living and Housing were always going to be the two big issues. Labor got distracted with the Voice and have not seemed to be back on task since. Albo has been out of country a lot (and he needed to be for most of the trips) but it has not allowed him to appear to be on top of issues at home.
Both Housing and Cost of Living are nearly impossible for the government to do anything effective about with destroying the bottom line.
Leroy@7.13pm
“The only one who could ever reach me, was the son of a preacher man ..”
Wikipedia: “Son of a Preacher Man” is a song written and composed by American songwriters John Hurley and Ronnie Wilkins and recorded by British singer Dusty Springfield in September 1968 for the album Dusty in Memphis.”
And here is the song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SALQ83wlRs8
That should focus the minds of the ALP!
Beats me how anyone could look at the LNP and say – yep, gimme some of that. People have short memories.
“ So it’s what I thought: you’re as bog Irish as OC & Lars”
Croppy lie down!
I think Chalmers would do a far better job than Albanese. To be on par with Dutton must send backbenchers on a journey to nowhere. Albanese has 6 months at the most.
Andrew_Earlwood:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 9:31 pm
“ So it’s what I thought: you’re as bog Irish as OC & Lars”
[‘Croppy lie down!’]
So it seems you’re bog Irish too.
Still waiting for the alternative plans from Dutton and crew to solve the cost of living crisis. All I hear is crickets. Dont know what the punters are expecting to be different under Dutton.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 9:58 am
For the record, though, I’m interested in the ebb and flow of polls and the communication on PB which follows. We should have a Newspoll on Sunday evening around 9.45PM Canberra time {Sorry, but polls are what this blog is primarily about}. Expect an ALP primary of around 33% – & don’t gasp, as we are miles away from the next election. It is just a reflection of where things are today, and not anti or pro anything.
——————————————————————————–
Have to hand it to you nadia, you know your polls and what’s going on in this country.
33%, or 31% (which is disastrous for Albanese). I didn’t pick this drop off in ALP primary. It’s shocking and we’re heading to <30% for the ALP soon if the ALP doesn't get into gear. I think there was a poll which showed the ALP below 30%, but not sure which company/paper published it.
I just hope you're right about the "don't gasp" comment.
michael – correct pick at 50-50 too. Wow. You obviously know your polling and also have a good feel for our big country. I'll keep an eye on your posts in future.
steve davis @ #1061 Sunday, November 26th, 2023 – 9:37 pm
They would say, they being the Opposition, they are there to oppose the government. 😐
So an agenda of nothingness will be what the punters will soon prefer.
Dunno how the ALP didn’t have some sort of program ready to go post voice defeat. It was obvious for months before it was going to be tough, so weird they didn’t send away a few ministers to think of something to roll out to distract the minds… Very flat footed at the moment and certainly need to be a bit more nimble given the opposition are quite nimble in their ability to criticise (and ably helped).
Wouldn’t think it’s fatal at the moment given the teal issue and that voters aren’t going to be looking too closely at the alternative until closer to an election, but this sitting week will be important to try regain some momentum.
Also people being polled arent necessarily supporting an opposition agenda or lack of, they’re sending messages to the government, do better.
Thanks Nadia. Just a feel thing looking at all the other polls and the government’s worst weeks of the term.
But I thought Mulgrave would be closer and Cook’s vote would increase (went nowhere) so 1/2.
New thread.