The Australian reports the latest Newspoll offers further evidence of an end to Labor’s period of federal polling dominance, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 in Labor’s favour three weeks ago. Labor has slumped by four points on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition up a point to 38%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 6%. Movements on leaders’ ratings are milder, with Anthony Albanese actually recording a marginal improvement in his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, from 46-36 to 46-35. Albanese is down two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 53%, with Peter Dutton unchanged at 37% and 50%. The poll was presumably conducted from Monday to Friday, from a sample of 1216.
It’s as if millions of lefties cried out, and were suddenly silenced.
One nation 6?
Let’s hope this is the impetus for a reset from Albanese and Co.
They need to take it up to Dutton and expose his merry band of incompetents and routers every step of the way.
No more timidity. The meek will not inherit the Earth.
I didn’t pick this drop off in ALP primary. It’s shocking and we’re heading to <30% for the ALP soon if the ALP doesn't get into gear.
I’ve been saying this for a while now. The mood in the country is sour. Dutton and Co. have contributed, but so have circumstances. I think the Prime Minister is carrying on like there’s nothing wrong that a bit of good governance won’t fix. Well, he’s wrong there. As far as I can see the things the government are doing are process based, and it’s gotten them into the weeds.
People want the government and the PM to be demonstrative. They want them out there telling Coles and Woolies to pull their heads in and stop putting a massive profit before helping out the battlers! Stuff like that. Shame the companies who are making off like bandits into doing things for the little guys who are hurting. Not engaging in share buybacks and C Suite Bonuses.
And that’s who I have my major criticism for. Jim Chalmers is just as useless for the government as the Prime Minister has been. His Man of the People, Mr Nice Guy schtick is driving me crazy! If he studied Paul Keating, he didn’t learn anything from him. Where’s the mongrel in the guy!?! If I were him I’d be out every day ripping Peter Dutton and Angus Taylor a new one! And yes, where is the Coalition’s plan for reducing the Cost of Living!?! They don’t have one. All they have is superior rhetoric. And it’s working like a charm.
Straighten up and fly right, Labor! Or you’ll crash and burn!
Post referendum effect. High Court ruling. Arrival of boat. Don’t expect this to last although Albanese needs to get back on the front foot.
Not even half way thru. the cycle, keep your shirt on, everyone…..
Frankly, lately with Albanese I’m seeing him lapse into his old 2019-2020 pre-pandemic mode, which was pretty much mealy-mouthed, wishy-washy political mist.
Hoping this poll encourages a change of tactics over the new year, what he’s doing at the moment isn’t very good and I’ll admit that even as a partisan Labor supporter.
Political night watchman
“ Yeah, I have heard this crap before from the Liberals ‘unlike Labor our pre-selections are decided by the members’. Ofcourse, they don’t want to talk about all the captain picks or parachutes they have done.”
Labor’s only mistake (not really a mistake) was formalising the structures that exist in any political party including the Liberals – and also making a habit of airing it in public. The Libs are better at managing this stuff behind closed doors. See also the Greens who manage to keep entire leadership contests secret.
The Tories are so disingenuous on this.
Albo has to start playing to the conditions not his preferred conditions because you don’t play dry weather footy when its pouring.
Very appropriate from Juice Media “ how to ratfuck the electorate “ , this applies to both Labor & the LNP… I guess I can vote for my local Teal member…
theJuiceMedia
@thejuicemedia
·
11h
https://x.com/zdaniel/status/1728579540392542414?s=57&t=P0ZbOl3g76J9YGQNVeAr-A
Won’t take long for one of the pollbludger Sandinistas to come up with the solution to Albanese bleeding votes to the right: move further to the left.
When the extreme right of Dutton is upon us these times will seem like a walk in the park. Dutton has opposed every bit of financial help that Labor have given out with no alternative, so you would have to assume he would had given no energy relief or any of the other measures handed out by Labor and just done nothing.
Speaking of his old 2019-2020 pre-pandemic mode let’s hope that Albanese doesn’t start putting back on the pounds that he lost during the last term it will be a bad sign to the electorate that he has lost his mojo. On a serious note, Albanese badly misread the mood of the nation with the lacklustre Yes campaign, he naively thought things would just fall into place. In other words, he foolishly put too much faith in the electorate. Why after working so hard to return to power he would put all his cards on the table like that is a question I keep asking myself. When he stood up on election night and made that declaration about the Uluru statement one part of me was thinking “What? Just slow down a bit here Albo, you just brought Labor back to power, let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet”. On top of this, some of his ministers have been exposed as underperformers or uninspiring, think Marles, Burney, King, Giles and O’Neil, while better performers like Clare, Husic and others wasted on the backbench are rarely seen in comparison. A reset is badly needed. This country can not afford to have Dutton as PM under any circumstances. He would tear the delicate social fabric apart and his L/NP cronies would pillage and plunder the joint for the benefit of themselves and their mates. Albo, pull your finger out, get some new advisors and hit the reset button for the good of the country.
Martin Pearson Anarchy Rules OK
https://youtu.be/bK6k4NbxPRw
theJuiceMedia piece picks it in one.. the electorate sees little difference between Labor & Lib.. there is of course on substantive issues.. that’s what Labor needs to concentrate on that & the optics of looking like the other side.l which they do.
Oh and Albo needs to come clean on the Voice proposal.. a good idea for the right reason but Australia is too divided to make any constitutional change for the good..
michael says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:37 pm
See Scott went with 53-47 for tonight. He is probably far smarter than me but I will take 50-50 and a bit of panic in the coming week.
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Excellent pick michael. Right on the nail with 50-50. I thought the ALP primary would drop, but not to 31%, I picked 33%.
C@t – welcome back too after a couple of days away. Agree – the mood in this country is sour. Albo needs an attack dog and for some reason he doesn’t have one. If Albo becomes the attack dog then his personal ratings will fall lower – someone on his front bench needs to step up. I just sort of think that all of them on the ALP front bench want to be nice and loved. Someone needs to get the gloves off.
I’ll have a quick scroll through the last blog as WB has just changed over. I got caught out the other day not reading other posts.
》Still waiting for the alternative plans from Dutton and crew to solve the cost of living crisis. All I hear is crickets. Dont know what the punters are expecting to be different under Dutton.
Is it a case of neither side is offering a plan so the hope of getting something diffrent is coming through?
The Libs never change their plan thats the problem. Its just boats, dole bludgers, asylum seekers, division, China baiting, anti unions, lack of climate/energy policy, giving rich people welfare and looking after their mates.
Thinking about it, the federal Labor frontbencher that emits the most Dan Andrews energy is probably Tony Burke. He should be rolled out a bit more often I think, particularly with how quickly and easily he is able to ridicule the Coalition for their hypocrisy.
S. Simpson
On top of this, some of his ministers have been exposed as underperformers or uninspiring, think Marles, Burney, King, Giles and O’Neil,
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Claire O`Neil hasn’t been an underperformer when she has been strong on cyber security.
Seriously – if the ALP can’t beat Dutton they should give the game away.
Albo deserves to be rolled if he can’t get the 2PP back to a winning position by Easter next year.
michael says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 8:37 pm
See Scott went with 53-47 for tonight. He is probably far smarter than me but I will take 50-50 and a bit of panic in the coming week.
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Can’t wait for Scott’s analysis of the poll.
Coalition primary is getting closer to his magical 40% mark.
Albo’s current frontbench wasn’t selected on merit. It was selected based on time served in parliament, that shadow ministers waiting around since 2013 for “their turn” were entitled to a ministry. As part of Albo’s reset he is going to have to shaft some members of his current frontbench and bring in new talent from the backbench.
Rocket Rocket
From previous thread.
Sinn Féin is populist left and much less socially conservative than the duopoly. It’s support is mainly from the disaffected, the lower 3 social strata and younger voters. It has also Pasokified the Labour party which now gets less than 5% and will be lucky to get into the next Dáil.
Fianna Fáil, long the dominant party has never really recovered from the GFC and associated housing market failure, as well as a series of scandals. Previously always the most popular party it is now stuck in the mid-teens and has an ageing base.
The old saying about the Civil War must be finally disappearing, as shown by the willingness of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to jump into coalition when there was even a sniff of Sinn Féin forming government.
The next election will be interesting. Who would have thought that the third entity of the Civil War, which had seemed irrelevant for 90 years and didn’t even recognise the validity of the Republic until 1988 is likely to form government? Of course the election may be a year off so anything could happen
Labor couldnt beat Abbott either. When you have an apathetic electorate that need to be virtually told who to vote for by a right wing supporters club (Murdoch media)on a regular basis, any LNP member can be elected.
Lars
I thought the same about Abbott – but my analysis didn’t fully appreciate the Ruddster
Question for all the Monday night quarterbacks out there:
How does any of your ‘what Albo and Labor must do’ claw back the $300+ per week rent increases that folk are coping? Or the $300+ mortgage increases?
Do you honestly think that ‘Dutton has done good’ … or “labor has not been good enough’ really matters?
C@t’s finger on the pulse ‘mood of the country is sour’ simply tolls the obvious bell; and this is all down to forces that are beyond the ability of governments to control in the short term: not when they have subcontracted out monetary policy to the central banks, and ours are just as happy to club ordinary folk like a baby harp seals in the hope that it will encourage cashed up boomers to stop spending …
Albo going on the attack wound cure the sour mood. Nor will better policy advocacy. Or whatevers. I reckon that labor will bottom out at around 47-53 2PP and be struck there for the next 12 months.
My ‘remedy’ is straight out of the front page of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: ‘Don’t Panic’ – keep governing, but always act like the government is on top of the issues: don’t allow a repeat of what we saw two weeks ago when the government allowed Dutton to set the narrative on indefinite detention; be candid and ‘on top of the brief’, even if ‘the brief’ says more headwinds are likely.
The simple fact is that Dutton has chosen the path of easy shibboleths- vacuous and passingly popular. However, in the last three critical weeks of an election – which i predict will be held deep into the first half of 2025 – so perhaps in just under 18 months, folk – even pissed off low interest low information folk – will be asking whether anything he says can actually help them up.
The government needs to keep faith in the power of incumbency to see them through to a second term. So ‘don’t panic’. Keep their promises, don’t consider changing leaders, and use an early 2025 budget to give the punters faith to return them at the following election.
paul A says:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 9:45 pm
…. I didn’t pick this drop off in ALP primary. It’s shocking and we’re heading to <30% for the ALP soon if the ALP doesn't get into gear. I think there was a poll which showed the ALP below 30%, but not sure which company/paper published it.
I just hope you're right about the "don't gasp" comment.
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Thanks paul A.
There are others more accurate than me, with one poster picking the exact 2PP earlier tonight.
I was confident the ALP primary would drop because last week was horrific – one of those weeks, "politically", where everything which could possibly go wrong – did. I suppose a drovers dog would have suspected this sort of polling, but I didn't think it would plummet to 31%. Newspoll is an important poll and is generally very accurate and I think it's regarded very highly by both sides in the Canberra bubble. It's certainly regarded very highly on PB from both sides of politics.
Per your query – the first poll to register an ALP primary below 30% was the Roy Morgan poll from last week. They will publish again early next week (usually tues arvo) and I have a feeling that the ALP primary will drop even further as the new poll will take in the polling period from Mon 20-Nov to today.
Re: "don't gasp" – we are only half way through the parliamentary cycle and there is plenty of time for the ALP polling figures to recover. Remember John Howard was in all sorts of bother in early 2004, and then he won an election (and control of the senate) later that year.
Roy Morgan and Essential Media will both publish polls in the next 48 hours, both of which will be awful for the ALP primary. Albo will be under the pump and it's probably not the ending to the year he was hoping for.
Thanks for your comments, but as I said there are others on this site who are a bit more accurate, which is probably the reason we all jump on every now and again to see what they write.
A bomb has gone off in tonight’s/tomorrows west Australian newspaper for the Fed libs.Interesting timing?
@ L’arse von bot bot:
“ Seriously – if the ALP can’t beat Dutton they should give the game away.
Albo deserves to be rolled if he can’t get the 2PP back to a winning position by Easter next year.”
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You’re a bloke who only shows enthusiasm for this blog when you think you can stir the pot on Labor Leadershit. You’ve been trying it on periodically against Albo since about September 2019, only to fuck off for months at a time when the polls are favourable to Albo and Labor.
You know full well that for labor to depose Albo as leader under any circumstances – now that he is actually PM – is a suicide note to see labor out of office for another generation. Which is why you are so keen to peddle Leadershit whenever you can.
Andrew_Earlwood
The government needs to keep faith in the power of incumbency to see them through to a second term. So ‘don’t panic’. Keep their promises, don’t consider changing leaders, and use an early 2025 budget to give the punters faith to return them at the following election.
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This is right because all the government has to do is to be seen to be focused on the economy so the employment white paper is something they can talk up.
Rather than getting angry – that just looks like panic, the government needs to use the next 12 months to go all in on framing the narrative, even if the political headwinds keep coming.
As mexibeemer says – focus on the economy. The dividend politically if they get that right and appear to ber in control of the narrative – and themselves – will be heaped in the last 2-3 months before polling day.
This is what happens when Labor persists with neoliberal economic policies such as an illogical pursuit of fiscal surpluses, no commitment to full employment, and no effort to provide free education and free health care. Labor needs to learn that if you deliver for voters, they will deliver for you.
If Labor comes up with a popular policies then Spud would more than likely say NO. Labor needs to play on Duttons weaknesses.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
My ‘remedy’ is straight out of the front page of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: ‘Don’t Panic’ – keep governing, but always act like the government is on top of the issues:
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I agree, even when they are not.
@Peggy:
“ Won’t take long for one of the pollbludger Sandinistas to come up with the solution to Albanese bleeding votes to the right: move further to the left.”
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Behold the motherlode – @ Young Nicholas:
“ This is what happens when Labor persists with neoliberal economic policies such as an illogical pursuit of fiscal surpluses, no commitment to full employment, and no effort to provide free education and free health care. Labor needs to learn that if you deliver for voters, they will deliver for you.”
Nicholas
This is what happens when Labor persists with neoliberal economic policies such as an illogical pursuit of fiscal surpluses, no commitment to full employment
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The government has released its employment white paper that talks about full employment and the surplus is putting downward pressure on inflation.
If Labor wants to win the next election, it has an opportunity to learn from what happened at the defeat of the Voice Referendum.
If it doesn’t, then it’s going to lose to the same tactics at the next election. So it should have a deep analysis of what exactly went wrong there and adapt accordingly, or else they’ll be consigned to history as a single-term failure that lost to a robber’s dog like Dutton.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 11:16 pm
@Peggy:
“ Won’t take long for one of the pollbludger Sandinistas to come up with the solution to Albanese bleeding votes to the right: move further to the left.”
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Behold the motherlode – @ Young Nicholas:
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You can’t blame people for being disappointed in things like S3, which should never have been agreed to in the first place. The money for which would have been very useful in addressing the cost of living and housing crisis right now.
“I agree, even when they are not.”
The real trick is to appear on top of the brief, especially when you are not.
The High Court caught everyone by surprise, and frankly it looks like a case of a judicial tantrum by the new CJ: he brought the case forward and heard out of turn, insisted on making final orders but has not written a judgement. if this was so important to act as he did, then all of the HC’s other work should have been suspended so that the court’s reasons could be published at the same time as the decision was made. i suspect that tantrum has precipitated by his personal disgust in the Dutton regime of either locking up undesirables for ever – if they cant be turfed out of the country altogether. he doesn’t seem to have understood that only Dutton stood to gain politically by making the decision without reasons on the bounce.
But anyhoo i digress: that sort of ‘black swan’ event is where a government must be seen to be ‘on top of it’ even when it isn’t. Giving into Dutton’s malarkey- having resisted the notion in the first place was a very bad look. Something i didn’t think would happen (because the politics of caving were so obviously bad) and yet … it did.
this is something for the government to take stock of over Christmas: set the narrative, appear to be on top of the brief, and dominate the news cycle. Bob Carr and Dan Andrews politics 101.
@nath:
S3 was a war lost in 2019. It would have been disaster out for labor to relitigate that in 2022, as it would be to revisit the issue again now or in 2024.
Shorten was to blame: he should have jumped the morrison government in his 2019 budget reply speach – promising immediate tax cuts that matched S3 over the long term but were focused on the lower end of the middle class and paid for by Bowen’s ‘saves’ on franking credits and negative gearing/capital gains reforms.
If he’d done that labor would have arrested the softening of its vote, won convincingly and and we’d still have a 37% tax rate (perhaps reduced to 35%) after next year. We also wouldn’t have the cancer of AUKUS either. … but all of that are ‘sliding doors’ in an alternative universe. In the universe we actually inhabit, S3 is here to stay, and if labor moved against it, it will be out of office for a decade. Sad, but ‘Australia’. It’s how it works.
Edited to add:
The government has money to act on cost of living issues now. S3 hasn’t even taken effect. The real problem is that if the government spends more, the ‘good’ that will do for folk suffering from cost of living will be immediately undone by the reserve bank going on another round of baby harp seal clubbing of the general populace. For some reason the monetarists in the reserve bank seem more sanguine about even more money being handed over to cashed up boomers via s3. Perhaps because it has been ‘factored in’ for the past 4 years, but perhaps because the board members are themselves ‘cashed up boomers’ (or crypto boomers from feckless gen X).
Kirsdarkesays:
Sunday, November 26, 2023 at 11:19 pm
If Labor wants to win the next election, it has an opportunity to learn from what happened at the defeat of the Voice Referendum.
If it doesn’t, then it’s going to lose to the same tactics at the next election. So it should have a deep analysis of what exactly went wrong there and adapt accordingly, or else they’ll be consigned to history as a single-term failure that lost to a robber’s dog like Dutton.
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I hope one of the lessons Labor gets out of it is that its priority should be they must first be seen to be, and actually delivering good outcomes for ordinary people. It’s obviously a difficult period economically but they need to talk more about the issues that are actually concerning people, do more about them and sell what they are doing better. The Voice dominating the debate for months leads to perceptions that the Government is not addressing or deliberately distracting from bread and butter issues and leaves it more open to negative campaigning.
i sincerely hope Albanese is not a dead man walking following his poor leadership on referendum (remember that?). if complete outsiders can see him in peril months ago over referendum why couldn’t collective wisdom of the party – or for that matter the luminaries here who scoffed at any compromise on the half baked initiative – or albo himself who said he wasn’t advised to cancel it! He has lost soooo much political capital – and it was not his to lose, party supporters worked historically hard to leverage labor into hegemony
It’s long past time for Albo to tell Newscorp to get stuffed.
Michael West: https://youtu.be/vACDMr94-JM?si=VmAJ3mkpb7YCsern
So many bad opinions.
It’s interest rates and cost of living, always has been.
@C@t: “People want the government and the PM to be demonstrative. They want them out there telling Coles and Woolies to pull their heads in and stop putting a massive profit before helping out the battlers! Stuff like that.”
Yeah, approximately this. People need to see the government out there visibly trying something to keep costs down and keep interest rates down. The ability to sit there on the surplus like a hen hatching an egg and hope that did the trick was lost with the latest rate rise along with Labor’s polling lead.
The Voice campaign is long gone now yet the government is yet to really get behind a new narrative of what it is doing now, which has let Dutton set the agenda regularly.
REVEALED: WA Liberal Senator Dean Smith wrote letter asking to free child sex offender refugee from detention
The West Australian
Sun, 26 November 2023 10:30PM
Katina Curtis
A Liberal senator urged the Government last year to release a child sex offender from immigration detention, in circumstances similar to the former detainees the Coalition is now urging Labor to lock back up.
This may give Dutton leadership a few extra months, and if there was an election, Lib/Nat’s may get over 60 seats, but Labor still remains in government
The lib/Nats and their propaganda media units , would still be disappointed with 38% after all the propaganda
From previous thread:
sprocket_: “You know there was a time in the Middle Ages when the Irish imported Catholic priests from Spain. I’m sure those priests were celibate “
Nobody expects the Spanish Insemination!
WTAF?
‘Thousands of Australians are being advised they have “on hold” tax debts – ranging from a few cents to thousands of dollars – that may be decades old and will be taken from future refunds.
‘The Australian Taxation Office letters are causing distress to recipients, who have told Guardian Australia that they are near impossible to contest given many alleged debts predate the five-year retention period most taxpayers are required to keep records.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/27/distress-and-confusion-at-ato-letters-warning-of-on-hold-tax-debts-from-decades-ago