The Australian reports the latest Newspoll offers further evidence of an end to Labor’s period of federal polling dominance, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 in Labor’s favour three weeks ago. Labor has slumped by four points on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition up a point to 38%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 6%. Movements on leaders’ ratings are milder, with Anthony Albanese actually recording a marginal improvement in his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, from 46-36 to 46-35. Albanese is down two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 53%, with Peter Dutton unchanged at 37% and 50%. The poll was presumably conducted from Monday to Friday, from a sample of 1216.
“Were you even alive during the Covid pandemic!?! You know, the one where migration numbers fell off the edge of the earth for 2+ years”
And house prices still went up 20% without any migrants. Houses almost doubled in the pandemic in my regional area.
Philip!
Those graphs you post don’t say the things you say that they do.
Stop embarrassing yourself.
It is beyond risible to accuse c@t of being a mere ALP cypher when you can’t stop your own lies.
Yiu keep accusing Albo of running a 500K+ net immigration scheme but the evidence is of a one off 452K spike caused by temporary migrants staying in Australia for longer on account of the post covid work opportunities given the tight labour market. Which was to be expected given the drop off during the two years of the pandemic.
The underlying net migration rate is around 300K. Just like it has been for a decade.
Start with that fact, THEN mount your arguments!
Bob – believe what you want. I dislike the Liberals, One Nation, most of the Independents, Labor and Greens equally.
The Liberals are as corrupt as they come. One Nation are basically thinly veiled racists. The Greens are a confused rabble of economic neophytes and Labor prop up big business and the property lobby worse than the Liberals do.
The only policy I care about is the migration policy because it affects everything else. It’s the one policy if fixed would transform Australia in so many positive ways. It would force businesses to raise their wages. It would force businesses to become more productive. It would allow state governments particularly in Melb and Sydney to catch up on much need infrastructure. It would re balance the property industry dropping prices by 40% ish. Fix the rental crisis. Spread wealth away from boomers to young people. Shut down unproductive zombie businesses who rely on imported cheap slave labour. It would put a full stop to inflation. The list goes on.
Freeze immigration for 5 years. Vote Sustainable Australia Party.
Watching the opening submissions from Ch10 and Wilkinson’s silks, a few observations.
I can see why Sue Chrysanthou SC is trousering a neat $700,000 from Wilkinson to defend the unmeritorious claim from Lehrmann. Whilst the Victorian KC dwelt on the timeline, the facts, the conga line of 20 witnesses he was going to call, Ms SC SC (neat, eh?) was on a different tangent.
Rather than relying on truth of alleged Lehreman’s Lechery, she was totally convincing in the S30 Defamation Act provision of qualified privilege – in short, it was reasonable for Ch10 and Wilkinson to do what they did in the public interest, and the steps they took to be sure.
I understand her and Justice Lee have been sparring partners in previous defo cases, though she was usually supporting the plaintiff. So SC SC interspersed her legislative run through with case law which Lee J had been involved with – overlayed with what paragons of virtue the noble Wilkinson was.
You could probably sell tickets to hear Higgins’ evidence in the morning.
I suspect she will go much better this time, not have been blindsided by the AFP leaking her notes to the other side.
Mavis
Thanks for the explanation re BRS. You are right about Stokes. We really need a better remedy to the wealthy using costly legal process to abuse their opponents and protect their friends. It gums up the system for everyone else.
At what point does Stokes become a de facto vexatious litigant?
Ok we have cookers now on the blog, interesting.
Clive first, surely?
And tomorrow, starting at 9.30am, Brittany Higgins will be led through her version of events. To be followed by multiple supporting witnesses.
Bruce Lehrmann may have pocketed a few hundred grand from:
– NewsCorpse – it is their business model to pay off litigants
– ABC – the model litigant, meaning settle early
But this is a different kettle of fish – big fish. There was 13 lawyers in the court yesterday, with the meter running. To lose and have costs awarded against you won’t challenged BRS’s $25m, but it will be a bankrupting judgement for the High Profile Man.
But who knows? Maybe his lies and multiple alibis will fall on deaf ears?
Good on ya Irene, at least there’s one person in here who is capable of independent thought outside party lines. To me partisan thinking is akin to being extremely religious – incapable of independent thought.
Read MacroBusiness and check out Sustainable Australia Party if you’re interested in challenging yourself, though I doubt C@t, Andrew_Earlwood, Boerwar can bring themselves to…
I notice that the Sustainable Australia partisans are utterly incapable of thinking outside their bubbles and serve up drivel and dribble accordingly. The cute thing is that they (a) claim to want to argue from the facts and then (b) misrepresent the ‘facts’.
Glass houses.
I see Hoffmann is an adherent to MacroBusiness website. Here is a review from Stephen Koukolous…
One post yesterday awarded me an award for the “worst ever housing affordability analysis” which cherry picked one of many parts of the piece I wrote for the Guardian – here https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/04/millennials-should-stop-moaning-theyve-got-more-degrees-and-low-rates – which concluded that “young generations through time always seem to be doing it tough relative to older generations”, including today.
It was something of an own goal for the people at Macrobusiness. Recall that one of the MB contributors, David Llewellyn-Smith in 2010 furiously blathered “this blogger reconfirms his assessment of the bust ahead for Australian housing”.
His buddy Leith van Onsolen around the same time spluttered “an Australian house price crash is inevitable and cannot be avoided”. In 2011, Llewellyn-Smith went on “it is a near certainty that Australian housing will lose value in nominal and real terms for the next decade”.
Whoopsie daisy. Never mind house prices are up around 30% since those “best ever” housing forecasts were made.
Enough of that – shooting fish in a barrel is never fun.
The MB people tried their best to undertake some analysis on housing affordability with reference to my work in The Guardian article.
I must say that for me, it was a bit like Carlos Brathwaite facing up to Ben Stokes bowling the final over of the T20 World Cup earlier in the week – here we go – 6, 6, 6, 6, victory.
MB had lots of terrific charts but failed because they made a lot of stuff up which is never a good thing for someone trying to take down a strong piece of analysis.
MB started with a made up quote from me. Not a bad way to try to slag someone when you quote them saying something they didn’t say and that’s an instant fail in most university essays. MB reckons I said that Generation Y should stop complaining about housing affordability and that they “might choke on their lattes if they had to make the same sort of sacrifices” that “Gen Xers and baby boomers” did.
https://thekouk.com/the-clowns-at-macrobusiness-hit-for-6/
I doubt High Profile Man is dumb enough to enter into this crazy case without an agreement from Stokes or whoever is bankrolling him that he wouldn’t be on the hook for any of the costs.
This is a political stunt by the right-wing because they want to somehow pin an alleged rape of a liberal staffer by a liberal staffer in a liberal ministerial office onto labor.
sprocket_ do you base all your opinions on a single review or do you do your own research and then form an opinion?
Philip Seymour Hoffman says:
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 6:52 pm
sprocket_ do you base all your opinions on a single review or do you do your own research and then form an opinion?
___________
Do your own research? I am sorry, I didn’t realise Donald Trump was here on the board
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 6:41 pm
I see Hoffmann is an adherent to MacroBusiness website. Here is a review from Stephen Koukolous…
One post yesterday awarded me an award for the “worst ever housing affordability analysis” which cherry picked one of many parts of the piece I wrote for the Guardian…’
————————–
Hey mate. Philip’s notion of ‘facts’ are different from those of ordinary mortals.
Time for some Ivermectin or bleach.
It all Fake News apparently and we won 50 states
An Afghan refugee, who has been living in the Australian community for nine months, has launched a High Court challenge over emergency laws requiring him to wear an ankle bracelet and follow a strict curfew.
The laws were rushed through federal parliament earlier this month following the release of more than 140 people into the community after the High Court ruled ongoing immigration detention, for people with no prospect of deportation, is unlawful
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-28/refugee-launches-high-court-challenge-ankle-bracelet-curfew/103162286
Have really enjoyed watching the WBBL this season. Very entertaining and great presentation by the Fox Cricket team. Rachel Haynes best special comments presenter going.
The Age 28/11
One caucus member, speaking anonymously because those who go public can suffer retribution, is gloomy about what he calls “signs of decay” in the government.
The biggest sign is policy inertia, he says. Labor has delivered on its election promises but is yet to reveal a bold agenda for the future.
Another is a lack of preparation and poor response to events. While the government did not want to release detainees from indefinite detention, it was slow to react to the High Court ruling.
_____________________
Here we go.
Only 18 months in, and it is starting already.
Groundhog day.
Looks like we are going to be in for a repeat of Rudd v Gillard.
Time will tell.
Taylormade @ #770 Tuesday, November 28th, 2023 – 7:32 pm
The Newspoll has had an effect it seems.
Meh , Biden was some distance behind trump 18 months before the last election. Still won comfortably.
It’s not like voters here are fleeing to the right.
No need to panic at a worst, 50-50 current status quo, but labor will need to throw out some biscuits before the next election.
I reported earlier that despite the TV branch of the SWM business giving Lehrmann a free ride, the newspaper had been less sympathetic, giving prominence to his lies.
I wonder how they will treat this revelation.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/seven-pays-for-bruce-lehrmann-s-harbour-views-20231128-p5enhv.html
On current standings its not good for the Lib/nats no matter how hard they try to propaganda it
This is close as it going to be for the lib/nats
Next year the Lib/nats and their propaganda media units , will have to start to sell their policies to the public after the budget
PSH: “To me partisan thinking is akin to being extremely religious – incapable of independent thought.”
… but enough about you …
Dutton and his cronies current political luck , may have 3-4 months left
Taylormade:
“ Here we go.
Only 18 months in, and it is starting already.”
Indeed: commentariat spin about rumoured ructions in the ranks.
It was ever thus …
Sprocket
It isn’t just websites like MB. Even once serious papers like the AFR have fallen such a long way in their once core task of impartially reporting financial news.
We forget just how long this downhill trend in “news” media has been going on.
Listening to the 7am podcast chronicling Rupert Murdoch’s career last week it recalled the first decade of Fox News. The narrator reminded listeners that that “serious” full time news service was one of the leaders of the cry demanding the US invasion of Iraq that would solve everything back in 2002-2003. What could possibly go wrong?
Yet people still watch Fox! It is where failed RW politicians go to die.
World population, 2023: 8,075,600,000
World arable land area: 1,380,000,000 ha
Arable land area per human: 0.171 ha
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#:~:text=2023%20World%20Population,the%20world%20population%20was%207%2C909%2C295%2C151.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/arable-land-by-country
As you can see, if each human being on planet Earth was given an equal share of planet Earth (or at least of its arable parts), then each human being would get 0.171 ha, or 1,710 sq m.
Australia population, 2023: 26,546,000
Australia arable land area: 30,752,000 ha
Arable land area per Australian: 1.158 ha
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/australia-population/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_use_statistics_by_country
As you can see, each Australian on average gets to sit on 1.158 ha, or 11,580 sq m. This is the same amount of planet Earth’s arable land area that 6.7 humans worldwide share. Lucky country, indeed, where we each occupy, on average, as much fertile earth as 6.7 humans worldwide get to occupy.
Very hard, given these facts, to sincerely and coherently believe that Australia is overpopulated. Unless, of course, one were to also believe that planet Earth overall has too many humans. Let’s explore that line of reasoning.
If every human on planet Earth were to be entitled to a share of its total arable land area that each Australian currently enjoys, the world’s population would need to fall to 1,191,700,000. That is, there would need to be a worldwide population reduction of about 6,883,900,000, for each human on Earth to be as comfortably accommodated on its arable land as each Australian is here today.
An interesting set of facts, these. Amazing what ‘doing your own research’ can unearth! 😉
‘Ron DeSantis’s chief elections fraud official collapsed after abruptly leaving a “contentious” meeting in the Florida governor’s office, then lay dead or dying for almost half an hour in the hallway outside until he was found …’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/nov/27/florida-ron-desantis-official-dead-meeting-hallway
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 4:15 pm
Leroy @ #672 Tuesday, November 28th, 2023 – 4:04 pm
Scroll down the Roy Morgan front page, there is new fed poll… blah blah blah
nadia88 didn’t confidently predict this one.
——————————————————————————
The point you’re making is what c@tmomma?
All that poster said was the ALP primary may drop below 30% in lieu of the last fortnights debacle. That happened on the Morgan poll last week, and the latest Newspoll also showed an ALP primary drop although I think the poster said it would drop to around 33%, but was even lower. She even jumped online last night to “wear it’.
She has never denigrated you or tried to put you down. Who the hell do you think you are? Do you think you’re special or something? You attack Lars & others as well, like what you type is somehow important.
When you were removed from PB last week, it was a relief not to have to read any of your stupid posts, clearly written by someone who presses enter too quickly. Hopefully you can be removed from the site again. In the meantime, I’ll use the scroll bar to avoid your rubbish.
Do us all a favour and go away … pls
Paul A, short for Paul Ass
Paul A likes self immolation.
The difference between this and Rudd/Gillard is that Dutton is looking at beating Chalmers on the first try, at least Gillard got another three years where there was substantive legislation passed.
All hail the New Gilded Age! All hail New Voldemort!!!
I’m waiting for “Barbra” to be whisked off to this safe house:
Kathy Jackson’s five star mental health crisis
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/kathy-jackson-goes-five-star-at-the-south-coast,7044
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiIc0HuJ78Q
Scott says:
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 8:01 pm
This is close as it going to be for the lib/nats
Next year the Lib/nats and their propaganda media units , will have to start to sell their policies to the public after the budget
_____________________
I love the optimism but since when did the LNP have to sell the media anything? Dutton will be the MK2 Tony Abbott – just say NO and try and coast his way in with a fawning media in tow.
paul A @ Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 8:18 pm:
=========================
Overreaction, much?
C@t: “nadia88 got a prediction wrong”
paul A: “Who the hell do you think you are? Do you think you’re special or something? … it was a relief not to have to read any of your stupid posts … avoid your rubbish … Do us all a favour and go away”
There are more civil ways of making your points, but more fundamentally, this is a forum where one offers up one’s posts to possible critique by other posters. As long as the line over into personal abuse is not crossed, all is fair. Please consider which of these two posts – yours and C@t’s – crosses that line. Thank you.
Pueo says:
‘I’m waiting for “Barbra” to be whisked off to this safe house:’
I see what you did there.
Mac
I do get sick of simplistic comparisons between Australian populations and o/s populations to ‘prove’ that Australia cannot possibly be over populated.
Australia is way, way overpopulated.
What are the tests?
The tests are NOT whether other nations are also overpopulated or even more over-populated than Australia.
Nor is the test a point-in-time fiddle faddling with ratios or even absolutes.
The tests are all about trends over time. The basic question is this: Can we keep doing what we are doing more or less indefinitely. That is, is what we are doing sustainable?
To what might we apply the sustainability tests?
Biodiversity: quite simply, catastrophic. Totally unsustainable.
Fresh water: irrigation waters are routinely over extracted. Urban water supplies are only ‘sustainable’ if you think infinitely increasing desalination is ‘sustainable’.
Forest products: unsustainable. Most native forestry is either terminal or shut down already. Forestry plantation products are nowhere near meeting our needs.
Coastal systems: catastrophic. There is systemic and ongoing degradation of almost any subset measure you care to look at. Mangroves, kelp forests, sea grass, coastal marshes, coastal dune systems, estuaries are all being smashed.
Wild caught commercial fisheries: mostly being used at sustainable levels.
Recreational fishing in inland waters ($11 billion industry): general overfished. Not sustainable. Hello european carp.
Fish farming: varies according to the fish being farmed and where farmed. Early signs that climate change is going to lead to introduced diseases and pathogens which have already crushed some industries. Oyster farming (pacific oyster disease) and prawn farming (white spot) has been abandoned in some areas. Fish dung is creating dead zones in some fish-farmed areas. Plenty of issues with sustainability.
Montane systems: already showing signs that climate change is going to eliminate most of Australia’s alpine systems. Inter alia, you would not be wanting to invest in alpine hostels.
Dryland salinity. Already costing many, many hundreds of millions. Impacts still spreading.
Irrigation systems. Most irrigation catchments are being farmed at rates that are well beyond anything sustainable.
Feral animals and feral plants. Catastrophic. Huge areas of Australia are being trashed as we speak.
Artesian and sub artesian water: clear signs that national and regional management strategies are working.
Soils. soil deterioration is endemic. Not sustainable. Erosion, soil structure (ped size), sodification, acidification. Huge losses of nutrients during dust storms. Other examples are in front of our eyes on a daily basis: productive land being covered with roads, drains, powerlines and urbs.
Desertification/rangelands. Unsustainable. Here the deterioration is being speeded up by massive increase in goat farming. Deserts are spreading in Australia.
Fire management. The nexus between fire and settlement patterns has been problematic since 1788. It is heading towards becoming routinely catastrophic. Fuel burn off seasons are reducing all the time. Fire fighter burn out is becoming chronic. Significant areas of habitation are going to have to retreat.
Energy use: totally unsustainable.
Australia is not within a country mile of being sustainable. Nowhere near it. Clearly, Australia is extremely over-populated.
Because it has a low population density and because it has extremely productive farming systems by world standards Australia is still a major farm commodity exporter. This can not last indefinitely on current trends.
MelbourneMammoth says this guy is the next PM – huge if true!
PaulA….
C@T Momma is a passionate Labor supporter willing to take on all comers. You, on the other ha hand, are just one of many who just float by this place, throw in a passing derogatory comment and are long gone.
Very few would miss you here and few would care what you think .
You should follow your own advice. Either come into the hurly-burly or do as you suggest, but apply to yourself – maybe get lost?
Sprocket r u calling it over for HPM? You seem to be having a bet each way? Not your usual reckless abandon with predictions?
Boerwar @ Tuesday, November 28, 2023 at 8:55 pm:
===========
BW, a very comprehensive and well-considered summary of the ways in which the 26 million of us – and our forebears – have made such a monumental pig’s breakfast of scratching out a sustainable existence on this continent we possess. Is it a case of too many of us, though, or rather a case of us engaging in poor land use choices and land management practices?
This also makes me wonder how the Indians get by, 10 of them packed into the same amount of arable land each of us gets. What should they do about that, I wonder?
Labor MPs are pushing for expanded targeted relief for millions more Australians and an overhaul of stage 3 tax cuts due to commence from July 1 next year, amid concerns the government is struggling to sell its $23bn cost-of-living package. Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher will this week hold talks with jittery Labor backbenchers about the government’s approach to the cost-of-living crisis ahead of the mid-year budget update, due to be released within weeks.
After The Australian revealed Labor MPs would urge senior government figures to consider new cost-of-living measures before Christmas, Dr Chalmers was pressed by backbenchers in Tuesday’s caucus meeting about his approach to the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). Labor backbenchers, who will meet with Dr Chalmers and Senator Gallagher this week, have expressed concerns the government’s 10-point cost-of-living plan has been too targeted and should be expanded to capture more households.
Some government MPs are also re-prosecuting the case to trim Coalition-era stage 3 tax cuts, which the Prime Minister has committed to several times since the election. National cabinet will also meet next Wednesday with Mr Albanese likely to urge state and territory leaders to step up responsibility for disability expenditure and housing.
Sounds like panic holdenH.
Skip to 0:45
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pUBknHNL8c
@Macarthur
Probably the most obvious problem is the fact that there’s a Cotton industry in the Murray-Darling basin in the first place, what with Cotton being one of the most water-intensive crops to grow in the world.
Also Rice is a bit indulgent to grow here too, but Cotton is where it’s rather obscene for a continent where fresh water is not in abundance.
Pueo:
Thanks, I got it wrong – the ABF wear dark blue uniforms, not black. I’d prefer if it was light-blue though.
_____________________________________
Socrates:
Those with buckets of cash such as Stokes & Palmer can screw the legal system, in the same way Trump is doing, but nothing can be done about it save for declaring one a vexatious litigant though that’s very rare (Qld, for instance, currenty has only 23).
I think Stokes has great trouble coming to terms with the findings that the man he has bankrolled & hero-worshipped has been found to have ‘murdered, or was complicit in the murder of, four unarmed prisoners, assaulted unarmed prisoners…’.
Stokes’ tick of approval of a very unscrupulous, cowardly character untowardly reflects upon his own character, his lack of judgment. In a way, if Roberts-Smith eventually goes down, which I’m sure he will, so does Stokes’ reputation.
Philip Seymour Hoffman perhaps post a graph of immigration against population if you want to be taken seriously. Rather than raw numbers. Australia population has quadrupled since WW2, let alone 1900. Monomania