The Australian reports the latest Newspoll offers further evidence of an end to Labor’s period of federal polling dominance, recording a dead heat on two-party preferred, in from 52-48 in Labor’s favour three weeks ago. Labor has slumped by four points on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition up a point to 38%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation steady on 6%. Movements on leaders’ ratings are milder, with Anthony Albanese actually recording a marginal improvement in his lead over Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister, from 46-36 to 46-35. Albanese is down two on approval to 40% and up one on disapproval to 53%, with Peter Dutton unchanged at 37% and 50%. The poll was presumably conducted from Monday to Friday, from a sample of 1216.
Labor couldnt beat Abbott either. When you have an apathetic electorate that need to be virtually told who to vote for by a right wing supporters club (Murdoch media)on a regular basis, any LNP member can be elected.
@steve davis
I agree Newscorp certainly played a big part in getting Tony Abbott elected. Its part of the reason Abbott’s downfall went very quickly when the electorate realised they had made a mistake.
I always do wonder though what would have happened if Labor had held its nerve and stuck with Kevin Rudd. The problem for Rudd, he was brought down at the worst possible time. There was research his polling was going to recover it was just a question by how much.
We will find out if Albo can weather the storm in this term.
Last comment on here today from me.Tres Charmers appointed reserve bank head is doing the oppositions job for it.
She came out and stated last week that its local factors causing the inflation crunch and overseas secondary this destroyed the narrative of labour.She will not back down on this all next year and also on getting unemployment higher.
Once again why promote someone to gov when they said just before the promotion that unemployment needs to be around 4.5.???
High-Profile Man now invokes a ‘high-profile matter’ (his words).
The reason he went back to Parliament House to work on briefs was that something had come up about … submarine contracts.
At the drinks session he said something about it to someone … or someone said something to him … he can’t recall the details …
“ well let’s just sit back and let shit build up then!”
Absolutely not. Stick to the plan: Labor has been slowly and steadily ticking off its election mandate. Stick to that.
Stay on top of the brief. Do what you said you were going to do. Explain why ‘going faster’ isn’t a good option, given capacity constraints and the spectre of inflation. Dominate the daily media with small pivots as circumstances permit.
None of that is ‘let’s sit back’ and let it all slide.
Between July 2022 and April 2023, 1,709 construction companies across the country entered administration, according to data from the Australian Security and Investments Commission (ASIC).
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This has not been helpful. Something could have been done surely.
@Andrew – which is why the great sin was failing to use the Reserve Bank review and the departure of Lowe to take more control over interest rates.
We have a situation where the RBA has a very specific orthodox view of things and nobody can change its collective mind, and if government wants to do anything against what the RBA thinks should be done we end up in a situation where the RBA and government push in opposite directions and there is much economic pain and friction all round.
The mind boggles that they thought the best thing to do while most of the country was mad at Phillip Lowe was to double down on the RBA continuing to operate exactly as Lowe was doing it, but now Labor owns that. It’s my biggest beef with Chalmers, who must have championed the decision.
How many of those construction companies involved phoenixing? How many were genuine collapses? Of the genuine collapses, how many were caused by supplyside shocks? What would be the ‘inflation penalty’ meted out by the reserve bank if the government intervened directly with cash injections or takeovers (which would also cost the treasury money and hence extra spending)?
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 12:21 pm
How many of those construction companies involved phoenixing? How many were genuine collapses? Of the genuine collapses, how many were caused by supplyside shocks? What would be the ‘inflation penalty’ meted out by the reserve bank if the government intervened directly with cash injections or takeovers (which would also cost the treasury money and hence extra spending)?
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Lets get someone to do some work and provide some assistance to genuine builders and not the clowns.
If you are so worried about the RBA and cash injections, wait until S3 kicks in. That’s a lot of discretionary spending entering the economy. Lots of luxury purchases and probably more than a few Lambos.
“ @Andrew – which is why the great sin was failing to use the Reserve Bank review and the departure of Lowe to take more control over interest rates.”
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Agreed.
However, this would be a radical departure from the orthodoxy. Something that would need to be deeply war-gamed prior to being implemented. For example, would the ratings agencies punish australia because the government seized back control of interest rate settings (thereby undoing any apparent gains from the government ‘cancelling’ planned increases to the cash rate).
nath @ #204 Monday, November 27th, 2023 – 12:18 pm
Are you suggesting a ceiling imposed by the government on building material? Or propping up businesses that perhaps had some questionable practices (not illegal just poorly implemented)
Mostly Interestedsays:
Are you suggesting a ceiling imposed by the government on building material? Or propping up businesses that perhaps had some questionable practices (not illegal just poorly implemented)
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I’m sure there a few people out there with more knowledge than me about the industry that may have a few good ideas. Which is why I suggested they should have had a summit.
“ If you are so worried about the RBA and cash injections, wait until S3 kicks in. That’s a lot of discretionary spending entering the economy.”
As I noted last night, the Reserve seems to be quite sanguine about S3. Perhaps because it has been ‘factored in’ to their thinking for the past four years. … but perhaps because the board members themselves fall within the ‘cashed up’ boomer (and crypto boomers in feckless GenX).
In fact, Bullock’s risible comments last week show a preoccupation with pretty typical normal spending by everyday Australians and a complete glossing over the fact that insofar as there some ‘demand side’ pressures, the are coming from cashed up boomers. … Odd that.
This tweet sums up Labor and quite a few on this blog pretty well.
“Tim Byrne@TByrne75
ALP : Vote for us and we’ll do all this stuff!
Public : *votes*
ALP : Lol, just kidding.
Public : *expresses disappointment*
ALP : DO YOU WANT THE LIBERALS BACK YOU IDIOTS.”
@Sohar
I’ve seen some posters on here suggesting Labor was being too ambitious implementing the voice referendum. And there recommendation was putting it off. I’ve seen others (Rex Douglas) slam Labor for introducing a tax on super balances of at least $3 million and it will cost their election chances.
Labor bashers: ‘Labor doesn’t doing anything’
Labor bashers: ‘Because Labor has done this it will now cost them the election’
You can’t have it both ways.
Kohler
“Six per cent compound annual growth in the value of houses over the past 23 years versus 3% annual growth in average incomes has meant that household debt has had to increase from half to twice average disposable income, and from 40% of GDP to 120%. This is the most important single fact about the Australian economy. The large amount of housing debt Australians carry means that interest rates have a much greater impact on their lives, and this in turn affects inflation, wages, employment and economic growth.”
So we have the Economists Spiral of Death… inflation up, raise interest rates, push inflation up, rinse & repeat….
Solution.. stop or cap Negative Gearing.. kill 2 birds with one stone, inflation & soaring rents.
It seems to me that concerns about inflation and super charging the housing industry with cash is fine. But when you have a chronic housing shortage and pretty high immigration something is going to give.
And it’s not me. It’s the government that will get the blame.
Catch 22 perhaps, but somethings gotta give.
Perhaps nath,
I recall Boer proudly proclaiming 5000 houses in 5 years or wherever it was under the housing Australia future fund as the solution.
Others said you couldn’t possibly build more houses.
The RBA inflation forecasts factor in s3 because it is already legislated.
Pandemic interest rate drops..
Why didn’t the RBA loosen interest on commercial borrowing & reduce GST to lower cost of living pressure & stimulate the economy while keeping mortgage borrowing stable so as not to inflate the housing market bubble.
“ Solution.. stop or cap Negative Gearing.. kill 2 birds with one stone, inflation & soaring rents.”
This is incorrect. Negative gearing existed, without obvious detriment to the economy before 1999. It is the toxic mix between negative gearing and the Capital Gains tax deduction which has caused the problem. Now, some 24 years later, both aspects have to be addressed together. What Labor took to the election in 2019 was on the right track (grandfathered existing investments to existing rules, but for any new investments to negative gear they would have to for new builds and the capaital gains deduction would he halved).
I don’t think Labor could politically ‘get way with’ reintroducing this proposed reform in this term (given their explicit promises prior to the election), but next term? Game on.
My view on the latest polling.
Immigration is now perceived to be at the center of the rental and housing shortage. Certainly from the conversations I have been having.
Immigration and cost of living in my view will be the #1 and #2 issues at the next election.
Labor is now being seen to be ineffective in both areas.
There is time to turn things around, but it the government will need to act quickly.
Meanwhile in holland
Insufficient housebuilding in the past decade is the obvious cause. Other causes, some believe, are the free-market direction of government, the sale of social housing, the scrapping of a national housing ministry, beneficial schemes for investors, and Europe’s most generous mortgage interest tax relief (leading to one of the world’s highest mortgage debts).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/15/netherlands-housing-crisis-dutch-elections
Jim Chalmers is the standout Minister in this Government. He is Keating revisited.
He is politically savvy, completely on top of the detail of his most critical portfolio , a very fine communicator and, above all, ambitious.
The next election would be all over if Prime Minister Chalmers was leading with a bold policy agenda that took the nation forward 10 years.
Make no mistake, the polls are heading in one direction. Albo is no Whitlam, Hawke, Keating or even Kevin 07. He is more Simon Crean. His agenda is left, almost without compromise.
Forget Duttons standing come the next election. Voters judge Governments, not Oppositions, when they are deciding who will lead them in the next three to nine years.
Jim, grab your chance – early next year. Win the left votes in the Party Room and the electorate by making Tania your Deputy. And go early to get voters approval of your swift political act.
“ It seems to me that concerns about inflation and super charging the housing industry with cash is fine. But when you have a chronic housing shortage and pretty high immigration something is going to give.
And it’s not me. It’s the government that will get the blame.
Catch 22 perhaps, but somethings gotta give.”
________
It’s exactly this sort of thinking that brings me to the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: “Don’t Panic”.
Focus on all the small things that can be done – like the one’s have have already been announced and legislated for in the housing sector – much to the scorn of The Greens Political party and certain bludgers – and things like Chris Minns announced today. Bank on the effluxion of time, staying consistent and the power of incumbency.
Yes Labor: ‘Al Pal’ has just written your suicide note. … You know you want to (L’arse certainly does). …
Edited to add:
Tanya as Deputy Leader? FMD, Shorten listening to Tanya back in 2019 and backing her insistence on spending Bowen’s ‘saves’ from this negative gearing-CGT and Franking credit reforms on social policies that didn’t cut through (instead of using said saves to pay for Labor’s own tax cuts to counter S3) is exactly the reason why labor is in the tight corner it presently is in. No thanks!!
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Focus on all the small things that can be done – like the one’s have have already been announced and legislated for in the housing sector – much to the scorn of The Greens Political party and certain bludgers – and things like Chris Minns announced today. Bank on the effluxion of time, staying consistent and the power of incumbency.
________________
That’s fine, but you are concerned with the incumbency of a Labor government.
I’m concerned with having the best housing policies we can have as a nation.
AE can you make your mind up on Littlefinger?
One day he’s an oily failure responsible for all ills. The next day he’s the hero of NDIS who others shouldn’t criticize.
Yes Labor: ‘Al Pal’ has just written your suicide note. … You know you want to (L’arse certainly does).
@Andrew_Earlwood
Al Pal and Lars main point their trying to get across is the Prime Minstership is a plaything.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 12:42 pm
This is incorrect. Negative gearing existed, without obvious detriment to the economy before 1999.
Negative gearing is socially toxic.. it bakes in disadvantage, benefits the haves at the expense the have nots.
We are now paying the cost ignored in the 90’s .. like global warming.
‘Bob Katter wants to replace the British monarch’s image on the back (sic) of Australian coins, suggesting scrapping King Charles in favour of Indigenous warrior Tubba Tre or army veteran Ralph Honner.
‘The longtime federal MP has also again stated that he has “refused to swear allegiance to a foreign monarch” over his 50 years in politics.’
(Guardian blog)
@catsmomma
“Juice Media is just a load of poncey ‘Right On!’ prats from Private Schools who have the luxury of spending their lives mocking political parties that represent the Working Class.”
Not entirely correct. My daughter remains good friends with one of the girls, they went through a rural public high school together. Can’t vouch for the others but they obviously don’t push the same agenda as you.
Better lawyers maybe but definitely much better investigators.
Eg the video footage from the bar beforehand showing Lehrmann plying Higgins with grog, and contradicting his police interview, was discovered by channel 10 but not the fricking AFP/ACT coppers. Very poor show
“ That’s fine, but you are concerned with the incumbency of a Labor government.
I’m concerned with having the best housing policies we can have as a nation.”
__
You obviously are not so concerned. otherwise you’d appreciate the risk that a return to a coalition government (especially this mob who literally are Howard’s D Team) poses to any good policy. Especially on housing, which is their particular hot mess (and which they make clear will only make worse if reelected).
secondly, your so-called ‘best housing policy’ strategy to be implemented NOW, would – as I’ve pointed out – actually make things worse.
Political progress – actual progress, as opposed to ‘positioning’ for virtue signalling – is about boring holes into hard boards. Even in the best of times, this process takes time. In the present climate, extra time will be needed.
What pisses me off the most is that a decade ago the economic climate was perfect for rapid reforms – we had a tripe A rating, interest rates were low, underlying inflation was low, international borrowing rates for long term infrastructure investments was the best it ever was post WW2. But instead of investing in the future via prudent borrowings (or taking Nicholas’s ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ POV simply creating more money with a key stroke) we had the Abbott attempt at Austerity and a general decade long malaise thereafter. Australia really missed the boat. Which is typical of long periods of Tory misrule.
Been wondering how long it would take for someone from the Liberal party to trot out some version of their dumbarse election slogan ‘It won’t be easy under Albanese’….and then there it was today in parliament, it sounded like Jane Hume saying ‘indeed it hasn’t been easy under Mr Albanese….in 15 short months the cost’..blah blah…
As Deborah Conway sang ‘it’s only the beginning…’
Sure hope Labor has been expecting it and so has a plan in place to counter it.
Or, surely they’re not just going to hope it goes away?
Yes Labor: ‘Al Pal’ has just written your suicide note. … You know you want to (L’arse certainly does). …
Edited to add:
Tanya as Deputy Leader? FMD, Shorten listening to Tanya back in 2019 and backing her insistence on spending Bowen’s ‘saves’ from this negative gearing-CGT and Franking credit reforms on social policies that didn’t cut through (instead of using said saves to pay for Labor’s own tax cuts to counter S3) is exactly the reason why labor is in the tight corner it presently is in. No thanks!!
@Andrew_Earlwood
I wasn’t against the Franking Credits reform at all. In fact the franking credits is wrapped up in Liberal hypocrisy. Tim Wilson from the IPA who champions ‘small government’ and ‘limited government’, vigorously defended a policy giving a cash handout of tax payers money.
I will acknowledge though your point. That big spending on health and education from the franking credit money didn’t deliver one vote for Labor at that 2019 election. For some on this blog, that is a difficult pill to swallow. And reinforces big bold reform shouldn’t be done from opposition.
Philip Seymour Hoffmansays:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 9:19 am
If Albo came out this week and said ‘we are immediately freezing immigration for the next 5 years to take pressure off the housing market, help the RBA deal with inflation and raise aggregate living standards’ his approval rating would saw through the roof.
The fact that no one in here even mentions such an essential part of economic equation – the demand side via extreme levels of immigration – into the key area of concern for the average Australia – housing – means you’re all either completely moronic or you just don’t give a shite about what the average person in Australia cares about.
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A 5 year immigration freeze is unnecessary and has consequences for the economy but cutting immigration for six months might take some heat out of inflation.
“ AE can you make your mind up on Littlefinger?
One day he’s an oily failure responsible for all ills. The next day he’s the hero of NDIS who others shouldn’t criticize.”
___
All human beings a flawed.
On balance I don’t have an issue with Bill, or his leadership over the whole period. BUT Labor did miss the change in gears after Turnbull was deposed, and the shift in political sentiment. Bill must bear his fair share of the responsibility for Labor’s failure to adapt. So must Tanya.
OS
I didn’t see following news headlines
“Conniptions in West especially in Anglophone countries due to inflation of about 5-6% and expensive petrol”
“Good luck with implementing solutions curbing Climate change effects ”
“Political turmoil in West as voters turn feral on ruling parties”
“Leaders across Western democracies, except Meloni and Orban, are very unpopular and increasingly so as insidious forces gather momentum with election of people like Milie and Wilders.”
Andrew_Earlwood et al
Negative gearing / capital gains tax is a part of the problem but the elephant in the room is the extreme level of immigration. This is a point Alan Kholer fails to acknowledge enough when he pegs the problem back to 1999.
Here –
– you can see an obvious and considerable uptick in net immigration from early 2000’s to the insane level we have at the moment of circa 500k net immigration annually.
This coincides nearly perfectly with the incredible rise in the cost of housing over the last 20 odd years and the current housing crisis engineered by Albo and Co and previous governments of both persuasions.
Is this merely a coincidence? You’d have to be wilfully ignorant to deny the correlation.
It’s a worry that everything is becoming a shouting match between the supporters of a thoroughly humiliated LNP after their debacle at the last election.
It was a self inflicted wound.
The emergence of the Teals is one such injury to contribute to the “dog’s breakfast” that is the current opposition.
Climate change denial is another.
Corruption is an evolving disaster for the Dutton Opposition.
Unfunded, uncosted and unplanned wild promises at the last election.
The LNP opposition can enjoy their moment in the sun, so far out from an election.
One has to wonder just how low an overseas owned media is prepared to stoop to gain traction.
There will never be, luckily enough, a Dutton government.
Dutton’s opposition has all the characteristics of the Leyland P76 together with the appropriate hype.
Simply Dutton and the Abbott like drooling won’t survive an Australian summer.
Dutton and the now “mouthy” supporters won’t even be in the showroom at the next election.
“ I will acknowledge though your point. That big spending on health and education from the franking credit money didn’t deliver one vote for Labor at that 2019 election. For some on this blog, that is a difficult pill to swallow. And reinforces big bold reform shouldn’t be done from opposition.”
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The real bitter pill for me is that the failures of 2019 has cramped the extent to which Labor can do ‘big bold reform’ in its first term in government. IF Shorten and co had prioritised tax cuts (labor ones that helped low income and middle income folk first) over social spending, then everything would have been different now. No AUKUS, no S3, ultimately same same social spends but rolled out incrementally over 6 years and not in the first year of governemnt, 3 years ahead on the energy transition. And so on.
A lot of trolling going on today.
So negative.
I won’t stand for it.
I won’t I tells ya.
Everything is fine.
Albo is doing great.
Jim is kicking goals right left and centre.
Just calm down.
Change the sheets and your underwear and settle.
Oh, and Dutton is toast!
That chart tells us cutting immigration slows the economy so a 5 year freeze would be recession causing.
Oliver Sutton at 12:18.
Does that mean that this AUKUS concept may have started as a drunken brain fart by Loose Broose who then passed it on to his boss, Ms Brown or the good Senator?
All this talk of tax cuts is a distraction. The tax cuts will go ahead, the alternative is political poison.
What is NOT political poison and would immediately result in growth in living standards and take fuel out of the housing crisis is a 5 year freeze in immigration. Let the country catch up on much needed infrastructure, housing, wage increases, lower inflation, take stress off mortgage holders, cut the savings rates so boomers stop spending so much and force big business to become more productive.
Fool!
Philip – “ you can see an obvious and considerable uptick in net immigration from early 2000’s to the insane level we have at the moment of circa 500k net immigration annually.”
Take your white australia googles off mate. The chart you post does not show “circa 500K net migration annually” – it shows a spike – caused but the corresponding drop during Covid to – as a one off – just over 400K (which is falling already) … but underlying net (temporary and permanent) migration trend is actually around 300K.
You are entitled to your opinions. Just not alternative facts.
Mexicanbeemer – we’re already in a per capita recession which means the average Australian is going backwards in their standard of living. Headline GDP is a ruse.
Ummm … duh! …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/25/chris-bowens-bold-and-sudden-movement-on-climate-sent-the-coalition-clutching-at-its-pearls
Yes, we all know what needs to happen. No new fossil fuel approvals. No excuses, and no exceptions.
When both major political parties are beholden to the Fossil Fuel cartel rather than the interests of the electorate, this is true. But it should not be. However, the polling seems to indicate that more of the electorate is finally waking up to the obvious solution.
Philip Seymour Hoffmansays:
Monday, November 27, 2023 at 1:30 pm
Mexicanbeemer – we’ve already in a per capita recession which means the average Australian is going backwards in their standard of living. Headline GDP is ruse.
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That’s why the real issue is inflation so a short term cut in the intake would help the RBA but it doesn’t need a freeze.
Andrew_Earlwood
Ahh the racist card, wondering when it would come out. I don’t care where immigration comes from, I care about the level of immigration and the detrimental effect it has on the economy. I think you should take your own advice about ‘alternative facts’ when they’re staring you in the face.
How on earth is that a ‘spike’ when the immigration level since early 2000’s has doubled, tripled (and since Albo and Co got to office 5x’d!) from it’s annual average of 89k since the 1950’s to 2000?
Well, we have a continuing CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP !
The polling trend confirms it.
At 31%, Labor can’t any longer position themselves as ‘centre’ inbetween the L/NP and Progressive crossbench. there’s just not enough electoral support to dominate as a majority power.
They have to pick a legislative partner and go with them. I’d urge them NOT to choose the L./NP. Doing a deal with them on the NACC was a big mistake. All the dirt on the Libs is hidden from view. Would be politically advantageous for Labor right about now. Voters turfed out the L/NP for a reason. Voters don’t want Labor furthering L/NP policy on Defence, S3 tax, asylum seekers, fossil fuel exports.
Labor/Albo being dictated to and dominated by the fossil fuel industry, the US Defence industry and the Murdoch media won’t cut it with voters.
Labor delegating out the job of governing to the RBA and big consultancy isn’t cutting it with voters.
Serious attitude adjustment required from Albanese.