A few pieces of state news before we move on to the hard stuff. The finalisation of Western Australia’s state redistribution is covered in the post above, and a new state poll from Tasmania gets the once-over in a the post below. In Victoria, the results from the Mulgrave state by-election were finalised earlier this week, and they defied Liberal claims on the night that they had improved on their state election performance to the extent of finishing second. In fact, independent Ian Cook amassed 9,122 votes (25.3%) at the second-last exclusion to take the silver ahead of Liberal candidate Courtney Mann on 8,964 (24.9%), the final score being 20,363 (56.5%) for Labor’s Eden Foster and 15,681 for Cook (43.5%), a swing to Cook of 4.3%.
On with the show:
• Sunday’s preselection to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy created by Marise Payne’s retirement delivered an upset win for Dave Sharma, who held Wentworth from 2019 until his defeat in 2022 at the hands of teal independent Allegra Spender. Sharma won the party ballot at the final count with 295 votes against 206 for the widely touted favourite, former state government minister and federal Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance. The favoured candidate of Peter Dutton, arch-conservative former ACT Senator Zed Seselja, dropped out at the second last round with 155 votes to Sharma’s 177 and Constance’s 169, at which point his supporters seemingly fell in heavily behind Sharma. Earlier exclusions with non-trivial vote shares were, in reverse order, Jess Collins, James Brown, Monica Tudehope and Pallavai Sinha.
• Sue Bailey of The Mercury reports Clarence mayor Brendan Blomeley has failed in his conservative-backed to topple moderate incumbent Richard Colbeck from the business end of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket, on which Colbeck will have second position behind conservative incumbent Claire Chandler, reversing the order from 2019. The third position, which has not availed the Liberals since 2004, goes to Jacki Martin, an electorate officer to Senator Wendy Askew.
• A Victorian Liberal preselection ballot on Sunday chose Kyle Hoppitt, former Baptist preacher and director of JAK Audio Visual, as third candidate on the party’s Senate ticket. The result was a snub to Greg Mirabella, who stood aside as the party’s state president to run. Mirabella served in the Senate from November 2021 until mid-2022, having failed to win re-election from the number three position at the May 2022 election. The Age reports Hoppitt prevailed with 187 votes to 173 for Mirabella, who lost conservative support as state president for acquiescing in the expulsion of factional powerbroker Ivan Stratov by the party’s administrative committee. Neither federal Liberal leader Peter Dutton, who backed Mirabella, nor state Liberal leader John Pesutto, who favoured Victorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Karyn Sobels, succeeded in getting their preferred candidate up.
• Pat Dodson, Labor Senator for Western Australia, has announced he will retire from the Senate on January 26 due to health issues. The West Australian reports Varun Ghosh, Right-aligned barrister for Francis Burt Chambers and the son of first-generation Indian immigrants, is the front-runner for the vacancy.
• Noel Towell of The Age reports the Liberals have preselected candidates for Higgins and Chisholm, the two Melbourne seats the party lost to Labor at the 2022 election. Katie Allen will again contest Higgins after winning a ballot ahead of Port Phillip mayor Marcus Pearl. Allen she served from 2019 until her defeat at the hands of Michelle Ananda-Rajah, who became the seat’s first ever Labor member. The candidate for Chisholm will be Monash councillor Theo Zographos, who was preselected unopposed.
• Roy Morgan has an online poll of 1006 respondents exploring the half-formed opinions of Australians concerning the Middle East crisis.
• The Australian Electoral Commission scored the strongest ratings of any government agency in an annual public survey conducted by the Australian Public Service Commission, with 87% saying they trusted it (either strongly, somewhat or somewhere in between) and 91% professing satisfaction with it.
Clare O’Neill – embattled?
We do not have cheap renewable power. Solar, wind and hydro are only effective if there is reliable source of power for when the wind doesn’t blow, sun doesn’t shine, the drought goes longer than expected and the batteries have run out of charge. The huge expense of building ruinables and the massive infrastructure requirements for the network means there is no such thing as cheap renewables. One large nuclear reactor at each of the five coastal capital cities would make a huge difference to reliance on gas and coal and you could all have as much ruinables as you cared to pay for. They could provide reliable power to desalination plants and attract industry that requires abundant reliable energy – like we used to have. You definitely don’t want to run an Aluminium smelter on unreliable power.
Amazon has taken a major leap forward in the Australian live sports broadcasting landscape by snaring the rights for the International Cricket Council’s global events for the next four years. But there will be no free-to-air Australian broadcast of any men’s or women’s ICC events under the deal.
The US-based internet giant’s Prime Video arm was announced as the new Australian rights holder for all ICC events until 2027 today, becoming the fourth major broadcaster of cricket to Australian audiences, and the first that is entirely online.
It brings to an end the 15-year joint-venture for ICC events between Foxtel and Channel Nine, which concluded with Pat Cummins’ men lifting the ODI World Cup in Ahmedabad last month.
ICC events Amazon holds rights to:
Men’s T20 World Cup: USA/West Indies (June/July 2024)
Women’s T20 World Cup: Bangladesh (September/October 2024)
Men’s Champions Trophy: Pakistan (February/March 2025)
World Test Championship final: England (June 2025)
Women’s ODI World Cup: India (September/October 2025)
Men’s T20 World Cup: India/Sri Lanka (September/October 2026)
Women’s T20 World Cup: England (June 2026)
Women’s Champions Trophy: Sri Lanka (February 2027)
Men’s ODI World Cup: South Africa/Namibia (October/November 2027)
* Deal also includes all ICC Qualifier and U19 World Cup events
https://www.cricket.com.au/news/3807634/amazon-prime-video-secures-icc-broadcast-rights-in-australia-t20-odi-world-cup-world-test-championship-2024-27
FUBARsays:
Monday, December 4, 2023 at 8:16 pm
B.S. Fairman
“Don’t try the rational argument around here.”
It’s been noticed that you prefer the irrational around here!
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, December 4, 2023 at 8:56 pm
Utter bullshit. The lifeboats weren’t expensive relative to the outcome. They made it work – and work brilliantly.
The Malaysian solution was never a solution. A couple of boats and the quota of people would have been met and it was back to the races.
Claiming that a Rudd change to visas made any difference is a load of rubbish.
The fact that the ALP fully supports Operation Sovereign Borders demonstrates that you are making up a story – not reality.
Yeah that’s right, all we need for eternal affordable energy in Australia is 6 Nuclear Reactors, which we can build for 2 million gil each and keep powered for only 200 magic points per day each, it’s just that simple, why aren’t we doing that right now? God, Labor is so incompetent.
goll
OK, you’re the second one to try the not rational smear – what have I said isn’t rational?
B.S. Fairman @ #945 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 8:27 pm
No, I didn’t. I said that about Melbourne Mammoth, who WAS the one who started speculating about Dunkley before Peta Murphy’s body has even been interred.
“ Clare O’Neill – embattled?”
___
L’arse von Bot Bot – disingenuous?
The wind blows all the time. Occasionally it doesn’t at a specific location.
The sun reliably shines an average of 12 hours a day everywhere on earth. Sometimes it is obscured by cloud at some locations.
But we have these things called “networks” and now other things called “batteries”, plus coal power which we will wind back and retire an orderly fashion. Nothing that can’t be dealt with.
Lars, @ 8.20pm
“I can remember u and others of ur ilk saying boat turnbacks were impossible back in the day.”
It could be argued that “turnbacks” were impossible as the majority of refugees were locked up in refugee camps as “turnbacks ” proved itself an impossibility.
And it remains so.
Despite the fake news to the contrary.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, December 4, 2023 at 8:58 pm
“Clare O’Neill – embattled?”
Lars Von Trier – embattled ?
We know that Dutton is lying about nuclear power getting us to zero net fifty.
That leaves the question of why Dutton is lying about nuclear power getting us to zero net fifty.
Dutton is lying about nuclear power to protect coal profits. Tip a few billion down the nuclear rabbit hole should Australians be stupid enough to vote him in? No worries. Anything but renewables.
I don’t think the Greens supported the Malaysian solution.
Probably a bit like Abbott – they were worried it would work.
S777
I don’t FUBAR does ‘networks’.
FUBAR does Dutton.
Fubar @ 9.00pm
“One large nuclear reactor at each of the five coastal capital cities”
Good if you like security risks!
“We do not have cheap renewable power”
Tell that to the money people who refuse to invest in non-renewable.
. You definitely don’t want to run an aluminium smelter near every capital city, just ask the mob having pulled out of the gulf.
Are there any bauxite deposits near the capital cities?
Are you being irrational again?
FUBAR @ #956 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 9:00 pm
Okay, let me take this pile of propaganda apart. Though I do have to accede to the Moderator’s observation that you are very smart with it. I don’t see your smartness as a positive quality, however.
Now, you state, boldly and insouciantly, as you always do (it’s a character trait of RW proselytizers that I have observed): ‘We do not have cheap renewable power.’
This statement has been, and can be, rebutted with the facts that can be ascertained by checking on what the wholesale cost to the suppliers of power to the public that the generators of Renewable Power get. Especially when it comes from SA, you know, that state with a lot of Renewable Power generation and battery storage already. It has been negative. Negative means even cheaper than zero.
Then there’s this cold turkey and favourite of the charlatans that are actually trying to back the continuation of the fossil fuel industry by attempting to blackguard the Renewable Power industry:
You may have missed it today as you were being loaded up with your fossil fuel industry/nuclear industry talking points, but this was all over the news, even on the commercial stations 6pm news broadcasts:
Transgrid is reinforcing the transmission network in southern NSW to improve
the flow of electricity between new generation sources and the state’s major
demand centres.
Why is the project needed?
The Australian energy landscape is transitioning to a
greater mix of low-emission renewable energy sources,
such as wind and solar. To support this transition and
connect Australian communities and businesses to these
lower cost energy sources, the national electricity grid
needs to evolve.
HumeLink will:
• Allow new energy sources to come online,
including renewables
• Reinforce the southern shared network
• Unlock the full capacity of the expanded
Snowy Hydro Scheme
• Enable greater sharing of energy between the
eastern states.
What is the project?
HumeLink is a new 500kV transmission line which will
connect Wagga Wagga, Bannaby and Maragle. It is one
of the state’s largest energy infrastructure projects, with
about 360km of proposed new transmission lines, and
new or upgraded infrastructure at the three substation
locations. The project will increase the amount of
electricity that can be delivered to customers across
the National Electricity Market.
HumeLink is a priority project for the Australian Energy
Market Operator (AEMO) and the Federal and NSW
Governments. It is expected to deliver $491m in net
benefits to electricity customers.
What are the proposed project benefits?
HumeLink is a project of national significance which will:
• provide reliable, and affordable electricity to customers
• enable more renewable energy generation to
enter the market, supporting Australia’s emissions
reduction targets
• create more than 1000 construction jobs
• contribute to economic activity in regional NSW,
generating major benefits for local communities
along the route.
How is the project being assessed?
HumeLink is undergoing the market benefits test
administered by the Australian Energy Regulator. Transgrid
must show that HumeLink will benefit consumers to be
given final investment approval and is currently evaluating
a number of network options.
Additionally, the project will go through a separate NSW
Government environmental and planning approvals
process. This process will begin later this year
https://www.transgrid.com.au/media/bjxlrqqr/humelink-project-factsheet.pdf
Then you come up with this:
One large nuclear reactor at each of the five coastal capital cities would make a huge difference to reliance on gas and coal and you could all have as much Renewables as you cared to pay for.
Except, if you’re as smart as the Moderator thinks you are, you would know that will never happen. Because you are predicating your remarks on a Coalition federal government, and we all know that a Coalition federal government would take whatever legislative and funding-withdrawal steps that were necessary to starve the Renewables industry to death in this country, in favour of Coal (the Gallilee Basin is still sitting there chockas with coal, and Tony Abbott has admitted the Liberal Party think Climate Change is ‘absolute crap’, so why not use it?), Gas, and now, as it has always been bubbling under the surface, like one of those projects the capitalists never let die, Nuclear Power.
Finally, this specious spam:
They could provide reliable power to desalination plants and attract industry that requires abundant reliable energy – like we used to have. You definitely don’t want to run an Aluminium smelter on unreliable power
We still have those industries, and we will continue to have them. See above, ‘Transgrid HumeLink’.
So, you’re talking out of your…hat, FUBAR.
Earlwood
oh FFS – it was about turning back the illegal arrivals – whether it was I. The boat they came in or a different vessel is irrelevant.
The Turnbacks worked. That’s why the ALP kept the operation going.
Plane arrivals are completely different because those people came in with verified identities. Processing their claims are far easier than boat arrivals who destroy their papers.
Keep the moderator out of it, C@t, on this and all other occasions.
Boring War
I’ve worked on network projects.
Thanks to all who participated in the PollBludger get-together in Surry Hills yesterday.
I really, really enjoyed myself, just like I was with a bunch of radio-astronomers at a conference.
There really was great craic. And good food and good wine.
Lovely to meet Confessions (who it turns out is my near neighbour), Eston and Meher Babar, who know so many physics people that I also do. And so, great craic (gossip).
Poll Bludger get-togethers just work, because what draws us to the blog is that we all care about psephology and how it imforms how we live, and in what kind of society.
“One large reactor near each of the five capital cities”
oh please, please pleas, let someone appoint FUBAR as the LNP ‘brains trust’ and campaign manager for the next 5 federal elections.
Lols, each one of the ‘large reactors’ would in fact have to involve at least 4, and perhaps as many as 8 ‘average 1 GW’ reactors on site to replace all the Coal fired power stations that are scheduled to be closed down.
Can you image FUBARs campaign brochures: – “a veritable Chornobyl sized complex … coming to a neighbourhood near you!!! Vote Liberal”
Oh but you all forget how with the magical world of Instant Nuclear Energy™ how countless sci-fi authors have proven in the past with their vast documents of fiction how they can instantly turn such an energy grid into a superweapon deterrent.
Like in this such sample video where a Super-Communist Mecha from some communist Asian nation is instantly destroyed in one shot thanks to the instant charge of all the nuclear reactors into the main cannon. Surely this is something Australia must invest in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7rqhAcP8lw
I reported a few days ago about very good economic conditions, which are probably ‘as good as it gets’.
Now another confirmation.
After 3 years of pain, America has finally achieved economic nirvana
https://www.businessinsider.com/2024-outlook-us-economy-stock-market-jobs-inflation-interest-rates-2023-11
“ The Turnbacks worked. ”
Except that they didn’t. Which is why they moved to ‘send backs’ straight away. Which is what the Malaysian Solution offered. On a greater scale, cheaper and safer.
Fuckwit.
“Turnbacks” is actually a marketing meme that the MSM have kept rolling. Just like “pink bats” (which was a classic misnomer, given that the problem actually related to silver foil insulation). …
besides which – before you jumped in to prove yourself – once again – to be both an idiot and a liar – I was kicking L’arse over his drive by comment that unknown bludgers claimed that turn-backs wont work. I was pointing out that the criticism which L’arse derided was literally correct, because ‘turn-backs’ was effectively abandoned just as soon as they became offical policy in December 2013.
I also note that Labor officially ‘embraces’ turn-backs NOW because it is largely a phantom policy & has been for years (and hence there is zero point in opposing it).
The desalination plants that provide an increasing amount of Perth’s water are already running on wind power.
I’m sure the farmers of the mid west paid to host the turbines can’t wait to see them replaced by a nuclear power plant.
Next thing it’ll be how marvellous Wayne Swan’s budget management was.
“Next thing it’ll be how marvellous Wayne Swan’s budget management was.”
____
Next thing it will be how marvellous L’arse’s bludging is.
Bolt: “… more than 20 countries just vowed to cut emissions by tripling the world’s nuclear power capacity …”
So, 90% of the world’s countries did not vow to do that.
FUBAR: “Solar, wind and hydro are only effective if there is reliable source of power for when the wind doesn’t blow, sun doesn’t shine, the drought goes longer than expected and the batteries have run out of charge.”
You are Rip Van Winkel, and I claim my five pounds!
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, December 4, 2023 at 3:00 pm
One only has to cite the policies of Hadrian to mount a case that Rome was ‘anti-Semitic’ (as that phrase has its modern usage as meaning anti-Jewish).
———————————————————————————
I really wish the media would use the term anti-Jewish when discussing discrimination based on being of that religion. Stop using a term that is based on the language you speak and not your religion. It is really taking it to far when it is not consider discrimination against semitic people when Yiddish speaking people (germanic language grouping) discriminate against Aramaic (semitic language) speaking people. Yet the media would somehow try to tell you it was, only if the reverse of this occurred.
William Bowe @ #970 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 9:42 pm
Okay, so take out the word ‘Moderator’ from my comment. You have my permission.
“We do not have cheap renewable power. Solar, wind and hydro are only effective if there is reliable source of power for when the wind doesn’t blow, sun doesn’t shine, the drought goes longer than expected and the batteries have run out of charge. The huge expense of building ruinables and the massive infrastructure requirements for the network means there is no such thing as cheap renewables. One large nuclear reactor at each of the five coastal capital cities would make a huge difference to reliance on gas and coal and you could all have as much ruinables as you cared to pay for. They could provide reliable power to desalination plants and attract industry that requires abundant reliable energy – like we used to have. You definitely don’t want to run an Aluminium smelter on unreliable power.”
I wondered for some time if FUBAR was a parody account, and it is good to know it is.
No-one is that stupid, it couldn’t be anything else.
Ah, Emperor Hadrian, Donald Trump’s inspiration it seems, with the ‘Peace Through Strength’ placards popping up at his rallies these days:
The phrase and the concept date to ancient times. Roman Emperor Hadrian (AD 76–138) is said to have sought “peace through strength or, failing that, peace through threat.” Hadrian’s Wall was a symbol of the policy.
Donald Trump just isn’t saying the last part. But he’s keen on the wall aspect. 😐
I think the market has factored in that ruinables are only going to get more and more efficient. If any company is willing to invest in a nuclear power plant then we should consider their proposal. Won’t happen though. Only dumb money would be into it.
Douglas and Milko @ #972 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 9:45 pm
I was so glad you and OH were finally back from France!
South Australia has some of the highest retail power prices in the world. They rely on interstate interconnection to keep the lights on.
Globally there is a direct positive relationship between the percentage of renewables in a grid and higher power prices.
In France the prices of nuclear power is kept low by government fiat. The actual cost is just tacked onto government debt. And France has the highest proportion of its electricity generated by nuclear.
FUBAR @ #988 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 10:21 pm
They have high power prices in SA due to the monopolistic Energy suppliers in SA that the Liberals gave favourable terms to. That’s not Renewables fault, that’s the Liberals fault.
Now to your next baldly stated but misleading factoid:
Globally there is a direct positive relationship between the percentage of renewables in a grid and higher power prices.
This, below, is the truth of the matter, and I’m doing something, again, that you never do and that is cite evidence for my pov:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544221020387
The CSIRO report this year on Australian electricity was pretty clear that nuclear was going to be a lot more expensive while renewables would get less and less expensive.
nath @ #991 Monday, December 4th, 2023 – 10:31 pm
It’s just common sense.
“It’s just common sense.”
And consistent with all the data and research since about Garnaut.
Everyone knows that this whole thing is just Dutton trying to connect with regional and outer suburban people by positioning himself as being an anti-greenie, a renewable sceptic. But plenty of people in the regions and the outer suburbs have renewables systems. It might not work out as well as expected.
On power, if you look at the supply costs bid to the NEM, renewable power is now consistently the cheapest. Coal cannot compete, which is why coal plants are closing.
As Cat said, SA power prices are high due to the outrageous private power grid deal struck by the Liberal governments of Brown and Olsen in the 1990s.
On happier news, Australia and France have signed a new deal on military cooperation in the Indo Pacific! Very sensible, Ms Wong. Magnifique 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-04/france-australia-defence-cooperation-defence-military-pacific/103186294
FUBAR
It was a Liberal government that banned Nuclear reactors for power generation.
I’m quite happy for our investment in nuclear energy to be government funded. We need a domestic nuclear power industry, uranium processing, nuclear weapons and waste disposal. With a third of the world’s uranium we should be the Saudi Arabia of the nuclear industry.
fred
Everyone makes mistakes.
“ After Emmanuel Macron and former Labor minister Joel Fitzgibbon called on the government to remove prohibitions on nuclear energy at the COP28 summit, Australian Workers’ Union national secretary Paul Farrow said nuclear energy must be on the table to protect heavy industry”
… but what would those three clowns know? Idiots! Apparently.
The Strayan – I won’t provide a link because none of you subscribe.
Commercially viable MSR’s reactors only have one major flaw that needs to be overcome before they could be used as a energy source. That is the fact they don’t exist. Unfortunately Dutton doesn’t believes that MSR’s not existing is any reason not to base an energy policy around them. As whether something exists or not will make no difference in a policy he never plans to implement. Also as they don’t exist you can use the operation parameters written up for them by people trying to get development seeding money for them. Which will always be far more optimistic then anything reality could ever deliver.
While in the mean time renewables are bringing the wholesale prices back down. After the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. Due to the 1 year lag in wholesale and retail electricity prices these lower wholesale prices want flow through to retail prices till after June 2024. It is Tasmania that has the highest level of renewable energy and the lowest electricity prices too.
Wholesale electricity prices average (Australia not including WA):
September Qtr 2021: $66 per megawatt hour (MWh)
December Qtr 2021: $57 per megawatt hour (MWh)
March Qtr 2022: $87 per megawatt hour (MWh)
June Qtr 2022: $264 per megawatt hour (MWh)
September Qtr 2022: $216 per megawatt hour (MWh)
December Qtr 2022: $93 per megawatt hour (MWh)
March Qtr 2023: $83 per megawatt hour (MWh)
June Qtr 2023: $108 per megawatt hour (MWh)
September Qtr 2023: $63 per megawatt hour (MWh)