The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.
I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.
Earlwood
Your suggestion of an Olympic standard rowing course between Hamilton Island and Dent Island demonstrates that you know nothing about the sport except that it’s in boats on water.
Player One says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 4:43 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #817 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 3:41 pm
It is also ridiculous to say that Labor and the Coalition have the same climate policy.
They may have different rhetoric, but they have essentially the same policy. The key policy here is known as the “Safeguard Mechanism”, which is the primary mechanism Australia intends to use to meet its “net zero” commitment. Sounds good, doesn’t it? But what the mechanism “safeguards” is of course the biggest C02 emitters. In case you are not across the details, the Safeguard Mechanism does not actually require them to reduce emissions. At all. Ever. What it requires them to do is buy carbon credits for emissions over their assigned baseline. And the carbon credit system is awash with dodgy credits available at low, low prices.
Even it it were a well-designed and well-regulated scheme rather than an elaborate piece of political subterfuge (it was, after all, designed by the COALition) Australia is not on track to meeting its goals.
___________________________________________________________
We will have to wait and see if the government meets its goals. Keep up the pressure and the good fight I say.
But it is ridiculous to say its policy is the same as the Coalition’s. It’s not just different rhetoric; it’s meaningful action.
The government is committing billions in taxpayer funds to rolling out renewable energy down the east coast and in regional areas and building the transmission lines to carry such energy.
Labor is not joining the Coalition’s absurdity about promoting nuclear power in Australia.
Criticise the government where that’s merited, but also credit it where it is due and think about what is going to take us closer to meaningful climate action.
Remember too, that only a Labor government will carry out meaningful climate action policy in this country.
China not playing ball at cop climate conference.
Why would they when they know the West will back down when push comes to shove.EG. Independent Covid investigation never will happen because China says so!
The cruel thing about tourism is the way in which tourists use two dwellings: their home is empty while they occupy other dwellings during their tourism experience.
This does rather bear on global warming, as it turns out.
Not only do Australians have the largest per capita housing space in the world, many Australians also indulge in tourism, leaving their homes empty while they tour.
The CO2 emissions for the construction and maintenance of the additional dwelling space is not factored in tourism’s 8% contribution to the global carbon budget.
When Covid struck Australian cities there was a scramble to house the homeless who were, in a perverse sense, potentially rather free-spirited Covid vectors. How could they possibly be required to stay inside if they did not have an inside to stay in?
This was solved by housing the homeless in tourism accommodation which was going to ‘waste’ because there were no tourists.
Tourism and homelessness: soul mates?
wonder if palasczuk retiring will make it more likely that the l np can return to government the three state labor premiers andrews mcgowan and palaszuk retire on top but howard refused to retire
Sir Henry Parkes @ #850 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 5:05 pm
Given the Labor govt’s clear connections to the fossil fuel giants the only way to ‘keep up the pressure’ is to:
1. vote 1 for a progressive crossbench candidate on your ballot paper
2. Make sure your investments and superannuation are with non-fossil fuel related funds.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #852 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 5:05 pm
Ummmm. I am not sure how more clearly I can say this: Labor’s policy is not just the “same as the Coalition”, it was literally written by the Coalition. Yes, there have been some amendments since, but those are regarded by many as insufficient to fix the basic problems with the legislation.
New planning rules proposed by City of Sydney, Woollahra, Waverley Council etc, a step in the right direction .. natural being opposed by ex Labor hack apparatchik Tom Forrest will help ensure Minnes prevents the measure..
Urban Taskforce chief executive Tom Forrest said it was a “confected problem” used to justify over-regulation that should be rejected by the council or blocked by the state government.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/new-housing-rules-only-way-to-stop-sydney-becoming-a-ghetto-for-the-rich-20231208-p5eq3e.html
FUBARsays:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 5:02 pm
Earlwood
Your suggestion of an Olympic standard rowing course between Hamilton Island and Dent Island demonstrates that you know nothing about the sport except that it’s in boats on water.
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While your suggesting other people may be wrong. I’m wondering if you had time to consider my post from yesterday. As i’m still interested in how you can justify a $12.7 billion increase, over the budget forecast, coming from tax receipts from business profits. Being responsible for a $120 billion turn around in a budget?.
What goes around comes aroundsays:
Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 4:19 pm
FUBARsays:
Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 3:27 pm
“ when the ALP got into power we discovered they were pretty easy to deliver.”
Nothing that the ALP did delivered that surplus. The ALP didn’t raise global commodity prices nor make businesses more profitable.
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So you are claiming a $120 billion turn around in the budget delivered from Frydenbergs original forecast was due to higher commodity prices and business profits?. Yet company tax receipts in the 2022/23 budget were only $12.7 billion dollars above originally forecast when Frydenberg delivered the budget in March 2022. With those company tax receipts including all mining and energy (gas and oiil) companies too. Can you explain how those $12.7 billion above forecast business tax receipts enabled a predicted $98 billion deficit (March 2022) to become a $22 billion surplus under Labor. As the mathematics involved seems to be beyond me, as i prefer to keep my mathematics within the confines of reality.
“Company tax receipts were $12.7 billion above the Budget estimates”
https://archive.budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/fbo/download/fbo-2022-23.pdf
P1,
As you know very well, you are talking about one policy only, the safeguard mechanism. So, with your semantics (Labor’s policy, which should read Labor’s policies) you hope to pull a swift on the good readers of this blog.
Labor has come in with many other policies to encourage the development of renewables, including directing the Productivity Commission to take into account the government’s climate targets when considering productivity analyses.
And the rewiring Australia policy is absolutely essential if we are to get the power generated by renewables to the consumer. This is what will make the reduction in emissions achievable.
The Coalition know this, which is why Barnaby Joyce, Dutton and friends have discovered a new found concern for the baby whales, while opposing the “visual pollution” of transmission line, of which we already have plenty – just check out any coal-powered electricity generating station.
Of course, the Coalition say that it will all be fine, we will just go nuclear, SME, even though the nuclear cheerleader, Ziggy Zwitzkowski, agrees that it will take 20 years to get any up and running.
Could Labor do better – probably not in the current environment. I think the statistic is that 62% of people believe that renewables les are increasing their power bills (Essential). This is not actually true, but with this perception, any carbon tax or other radical policy risks seeing Peter Dutton PM in 2025, and we cannot afford another lost decade.
This article is from earlier this year, but is still fairly up to date except that the amendments discussed in it have now been passed (with the support of the cross bench). It is a fairly even-handed account of the Safeguard Mechanism, it’s origins and it’s flaws, even as amended …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/17/safeguard-mechanism-what-is-it-will-it-cut-emissions-and-what-role-do-carbon-offsets-play
Financial Times
India’s stock market set to become 7th largest stock market in the world replacing Hong Kong.
https://www.ft.com/content/f263bf84-c3e3-4a0e-b2c6-749e3cc172a0
Ven says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 5:36 pm
Financial Times
India’s stock market set to become 7th largest stock market in the world replacing Hong Kong.
_____________
Wont make up for losing the World Cup.
Douglas and Milko @ #860 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 5:30 pm
Very true: Climate policy is not the only policy Labor nicked off the COALition. There are many others. But this one is the one of most direct concern to the current debate, since it is the key policy intended to drive our largest emitters to “net zero”, easing the burden that would otherwise fall on … well, on us!
The safeguard mechanism is the only stick. The other climate policies are all carrots.
The problem is that the “stick” is made of foam rubber. That was its original design, and the amendments have not changed it much.
Death of Joe Solomon whose throw gave us the first tied test and the cover for all the scorebook in the 80s
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/former-west-indies-batter-joe-solomon-dies-at-93-1411980
Player One says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 5:16 pm
Sir Henry Parkes @ #852 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 5:05 pm
But it is ridiculous to say its policy is the same as the Coalition’s.
Ummmm. I am not sure how more clearly I can say this: Labor’s policy is not just the “same as the Coalition”, it was literally written by the Coalition. Yes, there have been some amendments since, but those are regarded by many as insufficient to fix the basic problems with the legislation.
___________________________________________________________
Ummmm. Player One, you did not refer to, let alone answer, the points I have twice made.
The government is promoting a wide uptake of renewable energy; indeed, the Coalition is trying to make nimby political capital out of it; claiming the vast wind turbines off the coast will spoil people’s views.
The government is also providing financial back-up to enable the expansion of Australia’s electricity network for renewable energy.
Comment on those facts if you wish. I will not post them again.
BW: Can I humbly suggest that, notwithstanding your strong views on tourism, it might be timely for you to take a holiday.
Either Hawaii or Okinawa: two places where the locals seem to be unduly fond of Spam.
Unlike those of us on PB who must endure you posting the same stuff over and over again.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 5:14 pm
Sir Henry Parkes
We will have to wait and see if the government meets its goals. Keep up the pressure and the good fight I say.
But it is ridiculous to say its policy is the same as the Coalition’s. It’s not just different rhetoric; it’s meaningful action.
The government is committing billions in taxpayer funds to rolling out renewable energy down the east coast and in regional areas and building the transmission lines to carry such energy.
Labor is not joining the Coalition’s absurdity about promoting nuclear power in Australia.
Criticise the government where that’s merited, but also credit it where it is due and think about what is going to take us closer to meaningful climate action.
Remember too, that only a Labor government will carry out meaningful climate action policy in this country.
Given the Labor govt’s clear connections to the fossil fuel giants the only way to ‘keep up the pressure’ is to:
1. vote 1 for a progressive crossbench candidate on your ballot paper
2. Make sure your investments and superannuation are with non-fossil fuel related funds.
_________________________________________________________
I have few problems with your suggestions Rex. Making sure our private investments are placed where they would best promote renewable energy is an excellent move.
I think voting for progressive candidates other than Labor could also help, provided we preference Labor ahead of Coalition candidates, and are sure that said candidates are as progressive as they say and pragmatic enough to deal sensibly with a Labor government.
“My advice [to AP], don’t become the media face of some shit industry.”
Did you have any particular precedents in mind, Mostly Interested? 🙂
I’d agree with Rex too. The Liberals are never going to turn their back on fossil fuels.
A strong greens / teals cross bench which holds the bop after the next election is the best and quickest way to accelerate the transition, because they will make that the price of govt for the alp.
All of the teals and greens want faster action than the alp.
It seems likely to happen too.
BW used to drive me crazy with his repetitiveness, but I can honestly say I’ve come through it so that now he doesn’t bother me at all. Like a torture victim who has grown accustomed to one particular technique and is no longer concerned by it!
meher baba says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 6:03 pm
BW: Can I humbly suggest that, notwithstanding your strong views on tourism, it might be timely for you to take a holiday.
Either Hawaii or Okinawa: two places where the locals seem to be unduly fond of Spam.
Unlike those of us on PB who must endure you posting the same stuff over and over again.
___________________
As opposed to Player One? Takes two to tango. And it looks like Player One has their dance card full today 😉
CNN
Trump narrowly leads Biden in hypothetical rematch, new poll finds, with a tenth of voters undecided
https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/12/09/politics/trump-biden-2024-poll/index.html?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17021925381612&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2023%2F12%2F09%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-biden-2024-poll%2Findex.html
In a choice between Trump and Biden, 47% of registered voters in the US currently say they’d support Trump and 43% say they’d support Biden, with a tenth still undecided. That’s similar to other recent national polls, which have largely either found a close race with no leader or have given Trump a narrow advantage.
Opposition spokespersons receive star billing in the Australian media but do we know how their statements are received in international fora?
It’s important for workers to know that you can choose your own superannuation fund.
If your union rep or boss tells you otherwise, they are lying to you.
meher baba says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 6:03 pm
BW: Can I humbly suggest that, notwithstanding your strong views on tourism, it might be timely for you to take a holiday…..’
————————
You poor thing. I can understand why Bludgers would rather not think about tourism because it is where the personal rubber hits the global warming road.
Tourism is entirely a matter of personal choice, personal wealth and personal consumption. It does not depend on government decisions. It does not depend on corporates. It does not depend on anything other than personal choices about personal consumption.
Tourism generates 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions. The choices have nothing to do with party affiliation, nothing to do with nuclear reactors.
The choices involve adding further consumption of the largest per capita housing space in the world.
…and family connection and good mental health.
citizen @ #874 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 6:27 pm
Is that the biggest load of garbage since, since well Susssan Ley last said anything?
G0od stuff D&M. You tell ’em love.
P1 v BW shaping as the undercard to the Musk-Zuckerberg cage fight. With the artist known as Steelydan providing emotional intelligence from the commentary box.
So much to look forward to. Punch and Judy for the digital age
People will be staying in our house while we are overseas staying with my sister but I am not sure if people are houseminding our houseminder’s house.
citizen @ #873 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 6:27 pm
…The Petro States, who have infested the COP like bed bugs. 😐
subgeometer @ #880 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 6:57 pm
If there is a fight it is between Tourism and Fossil Fuel use. But this fight is entirely in the Bore’s imagination, since the rest of us can tell the difference.
But for everyone’s sake I will cut straight to the chase – Tourism wins.
P1
Don’t underestimate your own boring ability. BTW Musk has a company for that, perhaps you can help?
Q: If your union rep or boss tells you otherwise, they are lying to you.
Its usually the employer guiding you to their prefered fund than the unions…
https://michaelwest.com.au/carbon-captured-santos-emails-reveal-gas-giant-orchestrated-environment-protection-laws/
This is a must read.
I did an 8500km road trip this year through some remote parts of Australia.
My fuel bill was around $2000.
I spent more supporting small businesses along the way.
I don’t feel guilty
Torchbearer @ #884 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 7:22 pm
Sometimes it’s a cosy deal between the employer and the union on a preferred fund to guide the employees to.
Sometimes the cosy employer/union deal involves more employees on lower wages paying union subs and contributing to employer/union preferred fund.
Fossil burning must stop.
Currently tourism and fossil fuel use go hand in hand.
Currently tourism is a major smasher of biodiversity.
Currently tourism is a major global emitter of CO2 emissions.
Currently tourism is a major contributor to world homelessness.
Currently tourism is a major expression of world wealth maldistribution.
Why not choose to consume?
It is not as if the CO2 emissions are still going to be there after a thousand years.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 7:43 pm
Torchbearer @ #884 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 7:22 pm
Q: If your union rep or boss tells you otherwise, they are lying to you.
Its usually the employer guiding you to their prefered fund than the unions…
Sometimes it’s a cosy deal between the employer and the union on a preferred fund to guide the employees to.
Sometimes the cosy employer/union deal involves more employees on lower wages paying union subs and contributing to employer/union preferred fund.
————————————————————————–
At least if it is an industry fund. The unions might have chance to find out if the employer is not adding their compulsory contribution. Dodgy bosses who don’t want to put in their required contribution will never direct you to an industry fund.
‘Rossmcg says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 7:40 pm
I did an 8500km road trip this year through some remote parts of Australia.
My fuel bill was around $2000.
I spent more supporting small businesses along the way.
I don’t feel guilty’
—————-
Why should anyone at all feel guilt about choosing to emit more or less CO2 emissions as a result of their personal consumption patterns? Fly now, pay later is all the go.
Australians, as polled, are happy for fossil fuels to be phased out as long as someone else pays and as long as their consumption patterns are not disturbed. Why should any individual miss out while the going is good?
Let (a) technology (b) the government and (c) business sort it out. Easy as.
The standard arguments for tourism are that:
1. Tourism creates jobs. True. Until global warming kills the Reef and floods 99% of the world’s coastal resorts, for example.
2. Tourism creates profits. True. The thing is to be agile. Be ready to cut and run when the Reef dies, for example.
3. Tourism re-distributes wealth. On balance most of the wealth transfer is from wealthy individuals to other wealthy individuals. Gig workers and the like can scrape the leftovers.
4. Tourism is good for biodiversity. On balance, terribly false.
Even the Greens support more tourism!
C@t – I apologise for the outburst the other week. Wasn’t called for, and the nadiua88 was righto.
Anyone, is there a Newspoll tonight?
Player One:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 7:10 pm
But this fight is entirely in the Bore’s imagination, since the rest of “us” [my emphasis] can tell the difference.
It’s better not to use object pronoun “us” as in discourse to use it gives rise to the assumption that you’re speaking on behalf of others. It’s best to take personal responsibility for what you post – with “I”.
I find Rexology very interesting when applied to superannuation. Previously against the $3 million fund cap legislation and dissing industry funds this evening.
Curiouser and curiouser.
Let me guess FUBAR, you were a coxswain for some GPS team before you went the full Neidermeyer in the Army cavalry …
“ Your suggestion of an Olympic standard rowing course between Hamilton Island and Dent Island demonstrates that you know nothing about the sport except that it’s in boats on water.”
@paul A
The last Newspoll was 26 November and they generally come out every 3 weeks, so it’s more likely it’ll be due next week. But it could show up tonight if those running it think the 17th is a bit too close to Christmas and want to fill up the next week with headlines about how Labor is doomed forever before most people switch off for the holidays.
This was a comment about a Haley article.
“The best thing that could happen for the US and the world would be for Trump and Biden to both drop dead.”
Mavis @ #893 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 8:03 pm
Us will try.
Latest update for Cyclone Jasper, not looking good for North Queensland. Estimated landfall looks like it’s going to hit Cairns directly as a category 3 on Wednesday.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Mavis says:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 8:03 pm
Player One:
Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 7:10 pm
But this fight is entirely in the Bore’s imagination, since the rest of “us” [my emphasis] can tell the difference.
It’s better not to use object pronoun “us” as in discourse to use it gives rise to the assumption that you’re speaking on behalf of others. It’s best to take personal responsibility for what you post – with “I”.
____________
Player One does slip to usage of pluralis majestatis every now and then 🙂