YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor keeps its nose in front on two-party preferred in the final YouGov poll for the year, but the good news for them ends there.

The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.

I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,684 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 19 of 34
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  1. The situation in Tasmania where a supreme court judge is accused of law violation and is refusing to stand aside looks to be coming to ahead.
    Check out the size of the act of Tasmanian parliament that deals with these situations. Here is in full:

    Supreme Court (Judges’ Independence) Act 1857
    An Act for better securing the independence of the judges of the Supreme Court

    [Royal Assent 7 January 1857]
    Whereas the independence of judges is essential to the impartial administration of justice, and one of the best securities to the rights and liberties of Her Majesty’s subjects; and it would conduce to the better securing of such independence if the power of suspension or amotion by the Local Government were further limited:

    Be it therefore enacted by His Excellency the Governor of Tasmania, by and with the advice and consent of the Legislative Council and House of Assembly, in Parliament assembled, that:

    1. Judges removable only on address by Parliament

    It shall not be lawful for the Governor, either with or without the advice of the Executive Council, to suspend, or for the Governor to amove, any judge of the Supreme Court unless upon the address of both Houses of Parliament.
    2. Short title

    This Act may be cited as the Supreme Court (Judges’ Independence) Act 1857 .

  2. Griff @ #900 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 8:57 pm

    Mavis says:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 8:03 pm
    Player One:

    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 7:10 pm

    But this fight is entirely in the Bore’s imagination, since the rest of “us” [my emphasis] can tell the difference.

    It’s better not to use object pronoun “us” as in discourse to use it gives rise to the assumption that you’re speaking on behalf of others. It’s best to take personal responsibility for what you post – with “I”.

    ____________

    Player One does slip to usage of pluralis majestatis every now and then 🙂

    Pluralis One? 😐

  3. Why is the situation in Tasmania any more complex than in other jurisdictions, where judges are dismissed on petition of the house(s) of parliament?

    (The most disgraceful example was in NSW in 1998 when the debate to dismiss Vince Bruce was suspended when the President of the Legislative Council was so drunk that he fell out of the chair.)

  4. I’m going on a cross country trip by car in America next year. From Maryland-West Virginia-Kentucky-Missouri-Kansas-Nebraska-North Dakota-South Dakota-Montana-Wyoming-Idaho-Nevada-California!

    I don’t feel guilty about any of it. It’s the first and last time I’m going to be doing it, and I want to be with my son for his birthday. So there! 😀

  5. @Oakeshott Country

    A major cause would probably be due to the fact that the Upper House in Tasmania tends to be fiercely non-partisan, so that’s a huge amount of inertia that would need to be moved for a government to have its way in such radical reforms as to changing the rules of how things like this happen.

  6. C@t
    That’s a good trip.
    I have long wanted to visit Montana and see where Custer copped it.
    Grew up with the Hollywood version of cowboys and Indians then read the truth.

  7. Irene @ #788 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 1:58 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 12:02 pm
    Oakeshott Country @ #732 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 12:00 pm

    So in the court of PB:
    Pell, Roberts-Smith, Lehmann, Porter – guilty
    Shorten – innocent

    Meanwhile the defendant sits back, has the right to silence ( in case what he says may incriminate him ), and his past behaviour is not allowed in the court. Innocent until proved otherwise.

    In Victoria Shorten is a powerful man, has influence everywhere. And likely protected.

    Or, as others have suggested, it could have been one of those cases of a revenge accusation. But throw away the presumption of innocence, Irene, as you so obviously have, but which is always vociferously applied to Liberals like Christian Porter in an analogous situation, eh? Because it’s Bill Shorten, after all. And we all ‘know’ he’s guilty of every crime under the sun! 🙄

  8. Rossmcg @ #911 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 9:41 pm

    C@t
    That’s a good trip.
    I have long wanted to visit Montana and see where Custer copped it.
    Grew up with the Hollywood version of cowboys and Indians then read the truth.

    I grew up with the photos of Ansell Adams, plus National Geographic with pictures like this:

    I want to see that and go to see the geysers and hot springs, and my son wants to see the Las Vegas Sphere, so we’re combining the two. 😀

  9. Q: You know what’s more ominous? The plans that Russia and China have to create bases there and mine the hell out of them.

    Not really….by the time they do that the planet would have gone to hell…

  10. C@t
    And then I saw The Missouri Breaks, a weird western with Brando and Nicholson and the most amazing landscapes.
    I’m envious.
    Maybe 2025.
    But if Trump gets back …

  11. Enjoy your trip. Last year I went to Yellowstone and the national parks of Utah, loved every minute of it except for injuring my foot on a hike (which took a long time to recover thanks to my long years). Next year I will be going to Yosemite and Glacier in September. I really look forward to it and it may be the last chance I can travel to the US under normal, democratic, conditions before the second Trump era.

    America is hideously expensive, I had to skimp on just about everything, although I am happy to not pay through the roof for lodging as long as I can fall asleep. I did notice that just about every tourist I met was elderly, and I saw ONE non-white tourist the entire trip: young people and people of color simply cannot afford vacations.

  12. Rossmcg @ #917 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 10:01 pm

    C@t
    And then I saw The Missouri Breaks, a weird western with Brando and Nicholson and the most amazing landscapes.
    I’m envious.
    Maybe 2025.
    Bug if Trump gets back …

    You know what I’m looking forward to in a perverse way? Being in America in the run-up to the Presidential election! It’s going to be crazee?!

  13. Thanks, Melbourne Mammoth. I have a few perambulation problems of my own, but I’m determined to do it. Plus, we’ll be driving, so plenty of time to rest up between jaunts. I’ll be there for a month, so it won’t be helter skelter.

  14. Torchbearer @ #916 Sunday, December 10th, 2023 – 9:58 pm

    Q: You know what’s more ominous? The plans that Russia and China have to create bases there and mine the hell out of them.

    Not really….by the time they do that the planet would have gone to hell…

    You make a very sensible point. 😆

    Though, as a fan of ‘Blade Runner’, I keep thinking that humans are extremely adaptable and they’ll just try to press on.

  15. Cat, I envy your road trip.
    From mid August 2016 we spent 2 and a bit months travelling through the western states of the USA, which of course co-incided with the election campaign. We frequented everything from hipster bars in San Francisco to sports bars in rural Montana and Wyoming and everything in between in the various western states.
    From a psephology aspect, two abiding observations. Despite the ready availability of advertised jobs in rural areas, most of them were paying minimum wage (plus tips) which for a 40 hour week would not provide a living wage. Secondly, the lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate amongst Democrat supporters when compared to the MAGA enthusiasm for the Republican candidate. Indeed several months after the end of the primaries, there were still more bumper stickers about for Bernie Sanders than for Hillary Clinton.
    In essence therefore, despite him representing everything I am appalled by, I can understand how Trump’s road to victory was perhaps overlooked by the coastal ‘elites’.

  16. Well for a start if Russia and China want to start mining in Antarctica then they’ll have to go through this first.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System

    Not that Russia in particular has shown much care for international protocol, but I doubt they’ll be able to freely set up a mining industry down there, same with China.

    Also given that Antarctica has over 2km of surface ice on average before it gets to solid ground, I think when things develop to a point where mining projects are viable, the world is pretty much completely fucked for human civilization as it is at that point.

  17. Rambler,
    I hope we can do it in a month! I’m going to have to learn how to drive on the ‘wrong’ side of the road to do my fair share of the grunt work. But, as the saying goes, apt at this time of year, ‘No hide, no Xmas box!’

    Apropos your comment about the Democratic candidate, Molly Jong Fast has noticed it as well about Joe Biden, but also apportioning blame to the media too:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/09/joe-biden-2024-election?lctg=6050ea3b4953a53f148f7a05

  18. Excellent observations Rambler, and Trump voters’ (misguided and myopic) enthusiasm vs Democrat voters’ general disinterest in Biden is the very reason the US may yet fall victim to Magalomania again in 2024.

    Democracy itself is on the ballot paper – and not enough US Americans seem to realise it.

  19. Kirsdarke,
    I meant Russia would mine the Arctic. China has a claim to some of the Antarctic though, don’t they? (I’m too tired to look it up 😀 )

  20. C@t,

    Ah, okay. That’s valid, I think Russia would very much be happy to have its northern coast be as ice-free as long as possible for such purposes.

  21. C@t
    The best piece of advice I was given about driving on the wrong side of the road and have always adhered to is be conscious of and to make sure you are always closer to the centre line of the road than your passenger is. Particularly valuable on entering a roundabout, a major intersection and especially in joining a quiet rural road.

  22. Thanks for that, Rambler. I’ll try not to get confused thinking about it! 😆

    Though my first bid is to only do the driving on the long straight stretches. 😉

  23. We went to Antartica on 2010. There were two from the ABC on board (scientist and camera; can’t remember the programme name for the life of me) following up on collecting some bit of meteor that had been found the previous summer, and it’d taken 12 months to get appro to remove it. We never got to it – the ice closed in. Mind, it’s virtually 12 months till you can return anyway. Or it was.

    Not taking anything ashore or leaving anything behind was an absolute. And not removing anything was an absolute absolute. Boots were cleaned before getting in the zodiacs, and washed again after back onboard. The other absolute was not touching anything that moved.

    God it was beautiful. Unbelievable in just about every way. Literally.

  24. Kirsdarkesays:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 10:38 pm
    C@t,

    Ah, okay. That’s valid, I think Russia would very much be happy to have its northern coast be as ice-free as long as possible for such purposes.
    —————————————————– ————-
    There is lots of frozen peat in both the Taiga and the Tundra. Thaw that out you have a disaster independent of any mining activity. No more zombie fires, it will burn all year round.

    Taiga Taiga, burning bright,
    goodbye forests of the night;

  25. Kirsdarke
    Try watching some of the presentations of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative at the current COP.
    There is a growing consensus that Greenland and West Antarctic as well as parts of the East Antarctic icesheets are done for even if all emissions stopped today. Of course it may take a millennia or two but the sea level increases are accelerating and the estimates for sea level increases in the IPCC so conservative that it is hard to take them seriously.

  26. The federal government will tomorrow unveil its long-awaited migration strategy, a 100-page document detailing immediate and future steps it will take to overhaul Australia’s “broken” migration system.

    The plan contains 25 new commitments that follow a review by Dr Martin Parkinson

    Minimum English language requirements for international students will be increased, and more restrictions will be applied to stop onshore “visa hopping” as the federal government seeks to curb the number of migrants living in a “permanently temporary” state in Australia.

    Alongside a clampdown on international student and graduate visas, the government will also create a new temporary “Skills in Demand” visa to attract highly skilled workers who have the “potential to grow the skills and expertise of the Australian workforce”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-10/migration-review-briefing/103211718

  27. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 9:34 pm
    I’m going on a cross country trip by car in America next year.
    _____________________
    Good for you but hasn’t the United States suffered enough?

  28. Well, honestly the best I can hope for is that the counter-reaction of the world being hotter and windier means that more of this energy can be harnessed by solar and wind generators, to be stored by better and more efficient battery storage.

    Unless of course, you know, a global far-right movement takes control and actively sabotages such development so they can keep on their target of destroying everything and retreating to their bunker complexes to watch everything play out while eating popcorn and laughing about it like Captain Planet villains.

    Things seem to be going pretty well for them currently at the moment in case it hasn’t been noticed.

  29. nath says:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 10:59 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 9:34 pm
    I’m going on a cross country trip by car in America next year.
    _____________________
    Good for you but hasn’t the United States suffered enough?

    That’s just a bitchy uncalled for comment and is exactly the sort of thing that demeans this blog.

  30. Though, as a fan of ‘Blade Runner’, I keep thinking that humans are extremely adaptable and they’ll just try to press on.

    ————————————————————————–
    The candle that burns twice as bright, burns half as long. If as species we want to inhabit this planet for a long time. We need to cut back on many things we burn and how quickly we are burning through them.

  31. Kirsdarke
    Hotter yes, windier no. Polar amplification means the temperature gradient between the the tropics and the poles will reduce resulting in less windier conditions overall. More Omega blocks and weather systems getting stuck just like what is happening now. I’ve just had twice the average monthly rainfall in 18 hours yesterday.

  32. @RP

    I see, thanks for that info.

    Still though, developing wind turbine technology can still be a thing, putting them where the wind is most reliable and able to link up with national power grids at the minimum cost would surely be net beneficial?

  33. Kirsdarke,
    BIL, just retired was involved with every renewable project in SA over the last 20 odd years. He believes that a HVDC interconnecter between SA and North Queensland would be a smart thing to do.

  34. C@tmomma says: Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 10:15 pm

    You know what I’m looking forward to in a perverse way? Being in America in the run-up to the Presidential election! It’s going to be crazee?!

    Just tell them you hate the liberals and you’ll be welcome in the red states. 🙂

  35. FUBARsays:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 12:51 am
    It wasn’t that long ago that Antarctic sea ice was at record levels and we were being told that was also caused by humans.
    ———————————————————————-

    You also thought a $120 billion turn around in the budget. Was due to increased tax receipts on company profits. Even though that was only $12.7 billion above the budget forecast. I somehow suspect your understanding of global warming events maybe similarly flawed.

  36. Fubar
    Sea ice records really only exist for the satellite era, circa 1979 and there was a slight trend of increase up to the early 2010’s. This was often cited by climate change deniers as evidence that climate change didn’t exist, since then it’s dropped off a cliff and the current negative anomaly is an area about the same size as India.
    As I’m sure you are well aware ice is highly reflective, dark oceans are not which means that a lot more energy is absorbed.
    The current Earth energy imbalance is about 1.7 W/m2 which means that the planet will continue to warm until it is in balance.

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