YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor keeps its nose in front on two-party preferred in the final YouGov poll for the year, but the good news for them ends there.

The final poll of the year from YouGov, which will return next year as a regular three-weekly series, finds Labor with a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred based on preference flows from the previous election, despite recording their lowest primary vote of any poll since the election. Labor is down two points on the last poll to 29%, their day saved to some extent by a two point rise for the Greens to 15%. The Coalition is up one to 37%, while One Nation is steady on 7%. Anthony Albanese is down four on approval to 39% and up five on disapproval to 55%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 39% and up one to 48%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 48-34 to 46-36. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1555.

I have recently started adding YouGov and RedBridge Group polling to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which doesn’t seem to have caught all the way up with the recent slide in Labor’s fortunes. In the case of the earlier three YouGov polls (though not yet the latest one), the poll data feature incorporates an array of unpublished breakdowns by state and various demographic indicators.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,684 comments on “YouGov: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 34
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  1. “Americans are (what is that word?) self-absorbed at the moment.”

    ______

    Americans have been self absorbed since the early 18th century.

  2. ”
    Ramblersays:
    Sunday, December 10, 2023 at 10:43 pm
    C@t
    The best piece of advice I was given about driving on the wrong side of the road and have always adhered to is be conscious of and to make sure you are always closer to the centre line of the road than your passenger is. Particularly valuable on entering a roundabout, a major intersection and especially in joining a quiet rural road.
    ”

    Rambler
    I drove ok when I travelled in USA about 15 years ago but when I was traveling through Europe this year with my family, my son gave the same advice as you did. Some how it appears I did not do that for long ( maybe old age), so he drove most of the time. 🙂

  3. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The immigration changes are very sensible. It has been obvious since Howard that large numbers of unskilled migrants have been brought to Australia to undercut wages for lower skilled Australian workers. This only stokes resentment in those workers.

  4. Would you all still visit America after Trump is inevitably reinaugurated?

    My personal view is that I would probably grudgingly visit Hawaii and Alaska, two of my big oustanding bucket list destinations, where the risk of violence on a grand scale is limited. I would not travel on the mainland.

  5. I haven’t posted much lately because I finally succumbed to a positive Covid test on Sunday, and had probably been symptomatic since Friday. I am fully vaccinated with booster so I don’t have shortness of breath or anything like that. However it is still an unusually bad cold by my standards with aches in limbs, tiredness and a stubborn head cold that leves me feeling muddle headed.

    Do I believe Peter Dutton? No. Well at least it hasn’t progressed to delusion.

  6. citizen @ #780 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 9:30 am

    C@tmomma

    Good luck with your very extensive US road trip. My only suggestion is to see as much of the natural scenery as you can. The national parks and other reserves are quite awesome.

    You may also spot some unique roadside US billboards like “Vote Joe Bloggs for Sheriff” or “Vote Billy Bunter for Judge”. The highway system is very good as befits a country where the car is king, often not so great for pedestrians.

    I’ve just been talking to some friends and they said I should be okay driving through most of the States’ states as their roads are straight, wide and long. It’s only after you try and head into the cities like LA that it becomes a dog’s breakfast.

    We’re definitely going to see a LOT of natural scenery I think. 😉

  8. MelbourneMammoth @ #788 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 9:57 am

    Would you all still visit America after Trump is inevitably reinaugurated?

    My personal view is that I would probably grudgingly visit Hawaii and Alaska, two of my big oustanding bucket list destinations, where the risk of violence on a grand scale is limited. I would not travel on the mainland.

    Be careful in Hawaii. Just sayin’. 😯

  9. Why do I have to be so careful in Hawaii? Will a volcano erupt if I utter something naughty about the Great Leader as a punishment from God?

    Of course, if the USA ever descends to a point that resembles Germany immediately pre-World War II (like an event of Kristallnacht proportions), then all bets are off, even for Alaska and Hawaii.

  10. Paul Karp sums things up pretty well here:

    The government has also committed to a “multi-year planning model for permanent migration”, which sounds like a pre-emptive move to counter any “Big Australia” scare at the next election by pointing to future targets.

    This week the mid-year economic and fiscal update will update the net overseas migration figures, expected to show a decrease towards the long-term average of 230,000 a year.

    Of course, budgets projecting future surpluses or smaller deficits don’t stop the opposition accusing the government of driving the economy into the ground – so I wouldn’t expect Dutton to be silenced by a planning model or Myefo either.

    The strategy makes the link between housing and migration by noting that when investment in housing “does not occur, public confidence in the migration system can erode”.

    The migration program shows “insufficient regard for pressures on housing and infrastructure”, the strategy says, agreeing with a thesis advanced by even sensible mainstream economists such as Chris Richardson that in the short term we’re not building enough housing so immigration levels will need a nip and tuck.

    But it also gives a nod of approval to Giles’ foray defending migration on the basis migrants help build new homes.

    “We have a strong history of well-managed migration that supports, rather than runs counter to, our housing and infrastructure needs,” it says.

    …

    Because migration and border security aren’t perceived as Labor strengths it wants to make inroads to easing the population and housing squeeze before the election. After all, voters care about what they feel to be true – not the trajectory of a chart in a strategy or budget update.

  11. MelbourneMammoth @ #793 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 10:04 am

    Why do I have to be so careful in Hawaii? Will a volcano erupt if I utter something naughty about the Great Leader as a punishment from God?

    Of course, if the USA ever descends to a point that resembles Germany immediately pre-World War II (like an event of Kristallnacht proportions), then all bets are off, even for Alaska and Hawaii.

    Volcanoes, fires, maybe a tsunami. Who knows any more?

  12. Cat

    I hope you enjoy your trip. I confess that while I agree with Boerwar that we need to curtail long distance travel tourism, or at least do it by a low/zero emission mode, I would be a hypocrite to criticise.

    30 years ago I got fed up with my job, sold my car and backpacked around the world for seven months. I spent most of my time in Europe and Asia, but I still saw most if US west coast (LA up to Vancouver), Chicago/Toronto/Ottawa, and US north east.

    I had a wonderful time and met a lot of very friendly people. Being Australian had definite cache value then, and perhaps the politics was not as polarised then as now, prior to the Karl Rove weaponising difference.

    The US countryside is incredibly varied and I found some of it quite beautiful, especially the Pacific north west. Northern Rockies in mid western states are also stunning. Call me a nerd, but the thing I loved most about NY were the museums, as good as any in Europe IMO.

  13. ”
    Steve777says:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:22 am
    When discussing the Earth’s climate and possible changes, it’s the trend rather than individual events that are important.

    So both heat records and cold records are occurring. If nothing much was going on, they would tend to balance. However, in recent decades heat records have greatly outnumbered cold ones, for example: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL065793
    ”

    Steve777
    Global warming is not just heating of Earth atmosphere and Earth surface, it is extremity of all weathers. For example, recent Texas Freeze.

  15. Ven @ #976 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 7:53 am

    ROP so-called lawmakers still really want to impose abortion and make it criminal if any women wants to have abortion.

    AP
    Missouri lawmakers propose allowing homicide charges for women who have abortions

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/10/2210506/-Missouri-lawmakers-propose-allowing-homicide-charges-for-women-who-have-abortions?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_6&pm_medium=web

    “Some Missouri lawmakers are renewing a call for the state to take an anti-abortion step that goes further than prominent anti-abortion groups want to go and that has not gained much traction in any state so far: a law that would allow homicide charges against women who obtain abortions.

    Republicans in both the state House and Senate have introduced bills to be considered in the legislative session that begins next month to apply homicide laws on behalf of a victim who is an “unborn child at every stage of development.””

    In NSW, I presume from English common law, you are not a “person” until you take breath. Consequently a miscarriage must be registered as a death at 20 weeks or 400mgms birth weight. Homicide laws could not be applied to an abortion before this age – but after?

  19. The Australian takes a dig at Annastacia Palaszczuk after her retirement. I doubt she would care. This is coming from a paper that endorsed Scott Morrison Prime Minstership re-election who was swearing himself into ministries like 20 year old’s on a night on the town trying out beers on a pub crawl.

    “Good political career; little to show for it in nine years”

  20. ”
    Steve777says:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:22 am
    When discussing the Earth’s climate and possible changes, it’s the trend rather than individual events that are important.

    So both heat records and cold records are occurring. If nothing much was going on, they would tend to balance. However, in recent decades heat records have greatly outnumbered cold ones, for example: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL065793
    ”

    Steve777
    Global warming is a misnomer. It is actually Climate change impact. We not only have extreme heat waves but also extreme other weather conditions like intense Winters, rainfalls, floods, famines. For example, Texas power crises due to Freeze.(Remember Texas is at the southern most end of USA)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis

  21. ”
    In contrast, a Coalition government would sign a pledge to triple nuclear energy output when attending its first COP global climate talks after being re-elected, and overturn the Australian nuclear energy moratorium, opposition climate change and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien promised during a session at the world climate talks in Dubai on Saturday, reports Nick O’Malley. Surely this gives a green light to constantly probe them for details that can support it as a practical and confident plan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/coalition-mp-talks-up-triple-nuclear-option-at-cop28-20231210-p5eqeu.html
    ”

    3 times 0 = a big 0

  22. ““We also must face this fact head on: if we are to keep 1.5C alive, fossil fuels have no ongoing role to play in our energy systems – and I speak as the climate and energy minister of one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters. And we embrace that fact and acknowledge it because we also live in the Pacific, and we are not going to see our brothers and sisters inundated and their countries swallowed by the seas.””

    Now if Chris Bowen had said this in 1990, or even early 2000’s it would have been a sensible measured comment. Back then there was a long runway we had to use to transition by (checks notes) well before now, but for these fools and liars to talk now in 2023 when we know that it is a lie, lying that we have a long safe runway ahead of of us, when the end of the runway is behind us, and we are bouncing towards imminent catastrophes is inexcusable.

  23. Looks like there will need to be a plan B.

    Without proper US support, Ukraine can’t succeed.
    I still believe Putin will be taken out by his own people. Perhaps that is when the new leader negotiates a deal with Zelensky.
    Sigh…..

    —————

    President Joe Biden will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House Tuesday as discussions on a Ukraine aid deal remain stalled in Congress.

  24. Political nightwatchman

    The Murdoch press is still carrying on about Dan Andrews and he resigned nearly 3 months ago.

    They actually made up a story about him wanting to join Portsea golf club and being rejected. It was a fabricated story. They went on about it for weeks. The gaslighting was incredible.

  25. Of course there was a Chris who said it in 1990, or at least something like it, Chris Puplick. As John Howard’s Shadow Minister for the Environment.

  26. ”
    Socratessays:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:59 am
    I haven’t posted much lately because I finally succumbed to a positive Covid test on Sunday, and had probably been symptomatic since Friday. I am fully vaccinated with booster so I don’t have shortness of breath or anything like that. However it is still an unusually bad cold by my standards with aches in limbs, tiredness and a stubborn head cold that leves me feeling muddle headed.

    Do I believe Peter Dutton? No. Well at least it hasn’t progressed to delusion.
    ”

    Get well soon Socrates.

  29. Rewi

    “ It’s estimated that if Antarctica loses all its ice, the continent of Antarctica would rise about 1Km.”

    What?”

    Huge ice sheets kilometres high weigh billions of tonnes per square km. They literally compress over time any land under them that is not hard rock.

    In Finland and Sweden, which were both covered by glaciers till less than 10,000 years ago, most of the farmland is rising naturally each year, faster than sea level rise. The rate is slow, but it varies up to about 1cm per year.
    https://slate.com/technology/2017/08/why-sea-level-is-falling-in-finland-and-sweden.html

  30. A few people have asked about the ongoing issue with one of Tasmania’s Supreme Court judges. Being mindful this is an ongoing legal matter so care is needed in terms of the allegations which have not yet been tested in court.

    There’s a bit of background, kinda gossipy, but part of the current legal case. And there’s a whole legal matter in terms of how Supreme Court judges in Tasmania are overseen, so a separation of powers matter. Remember that the population of Tasmania is about the same as the Gold Coast, it’s a small place and everyone knows everyone.

    Gregory Geason ticked all the normal boxes to become a judge, president of the legal council, lecturer at the School of Law, in any number of correct clubs. He was a prosecutor for a very long time. He also happened to be a great mate of former Premier Will Hodgson, being the best man at his wedding. Gregory Geason was a family man with a wife and now adult children.

    The make-up of the Tasmanian Supreme Court was mostly Labor appointed Judges, so when a vacancy became available Premier Will Hodgson had an opportunity to appoint a conservative judge. He appointed his great mate Gregory Geason. Word is that this put a lot of people’s noses out in the legal fraternity, the gossip is that there was concern about his rulings as a normal judge and that there were better qualified people in front of Geason.

    In 2021 Geason was photographed kissing his much younger female Associate at a local watering hole, and others reported seeing them together holidaying on the east coast. At the time he was counselled by the Tasmanian Chief Justice. Consenting adults, but usual concerns about power differentiation. The Associate moved to another supreme court judge after the Chief Justice’s intervention, and later I believe she left the supreme court, that last point isn’t in a news story but through back channels.

    It is not clear if the current legal matter with Geason is with that Associate or another family member. The current case has accusations of using an electronic device to track a person, reading phone messages, pressure to sell a house, use of the funds to purchase a new house, verbal, emotional and physical abuse.

    On to the constitution and legal handling of misconduct of supreme court judges. The only formal sanction against a judge on misconduct grounds would be removal from office by the Governor upon a motion being passed both Houses of Parliament. It’s an act which dates back to 1857. So a fairly old colonial law and only set up to fire, not suspend a judge.

    In Tasmania there is no permanent panel to review conduct of judges. The Liberal government attorney general had drafted some new legislation to give the power to suspend or fire judges to the parliament. That legislation was up to its 10th draft and was heavily disputed by the legal fraternity in Tasmania. The concern was that it removed the separation of powers. There are also arguments that the Act from 1857 was also not constitutional, the Tasmanian constitution being implemented in 1934. It get arcane and I won’t pretend to know if the legal arguments have grounds or not, read the linked article in today’s Australian.

    But there is a fundamental issue here in that he has pleaded not guilty, and the Government was looking to sanction him before the courts heard his case.

    Tas Labor has agreed to support a motion to the Governor using the 1857 Act to suspend Geason .

    ABC – This current legal case
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-06/tasmanian-supreme-court-judge-gregory-geason-allegations/103070118

    ABC – The historic matter with his Associate
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-12/supreme-court-judge-gregory-geason-photograph-court-staffer/13147804

    The constitutional issue in today’s Australian
    https://archive.md/18jlK

  34. Socrates says:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 9:49 am
    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The immigration changes are very sensible. It has been obvious since Howard that large numbers of unskilled migrants have been brought to Australia to undercut wages for lower skilled Australian workers. This only stokes resentment in those workers.

    Socrates, like most posters keep blaming Howard for all the ills Australia has. Conveniently forget the Rudd, and especially Gillard years, where Bill Shorten’s influence on providing visas, the highest ever, too brought in many migrants. For Shorten, who mixed with Melbourne’s business elite, maybe still does, business needs are the priority. Workers not so much.
    And these businesses may donate to Labor to help fund the next election campaign.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/15/malcolm-turnbull-says-shorten-a-rank-opportunist-over-457-visas

    15 November 2016. Malcolm Turnbull has declared Bill Shorten a rank opportunist and hypocrite for his crackdown on 457 visas while opposing a higher tax on backpackers who are on working holiday visas.

    The prime minister said the highest number of 457 visas were granted when the opposition leader was the employment minister (between December 2011 and July 2013). Check the graph in The Guardian article.

  35. Get well soon, Soc! When I heard the new Covid Variant was causing a spike in cases I signed up for my latest booster with my son. This allowed us to sidestep it when two of my son’s friends caught it at concerts and festivals they went to. My son reacted to it probably being infected for a day or two but still wasn’t too bad, all things considered. I didn’t have any consequences from being near him.

  36. Irene,
    A contextless accusation about what Bill Shorten did in 2011-2013 does not prove causation of anything much today, really. Especially when you ignore the almost decade-long rule of the Coalition and the effect THEY had on migration and visas.

  37. Rewi,

    Socrates has given you the answer I was just about to give.

    Another good example is the Roman Naval port of Ravenna – it is now 15 Km inland!

    Also, Soc, hope you get better quickly.

  38. Chemist Warehouse is going to do a public listing at an estimated $8.8 billion.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/dec/11/australia-news-live-budget-interest-rates-vce-results-cost-of-living-climate-talks-cop28?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-65763c158f08c64a67375869#block-65763c158f08c64a67375869

    IS this why they went so feral at the recent PBS 60 day script reforms? They were already fattening up the goose, knowing times this good (for them) could not last forever.

  39. Socrates @ #1029 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 10:34 am

    Rewi

    “ It’s estimated that if Antarctica loses all its ice, the continent of Antarctica would rise about 1Km.”

    What?”

    Huge ice sheets kilometres high weigh billions of tonnes per square km. They literally compress over time any land under them that is not hard rock.

    In Finland and Sweden, which were both covered by glaciers till less than 10,000 years ago, most of the farmland is rising naturally each year, faster than sea level rise. The rate is slow, but it varies up to about 1cm per year.
    https://slate.com/technology/2017/08/why-sea-level-is-falling-in-finland-and-sweden.html

    Thanks Socrates, saved me.

    Hope you get better quickly. It’s a bit of a bastard. Re Paracetamol, said it before, saying it again: best is regular intake for keeping blood levels up mindful max daily dose is 4g/day for the couple of days when you feel most crook. My pref is Panadol Osteo (just a marketing name gimmic) which have higher dose per tab (675mg v 500) so you can get max dose with 2 x 3 times a day (easy to fit into daily routine) vs regular Panadol (500 mg) which necessitates 2 x 4 times a day – a bit clunky to remember and time. I add supplements like Vit D blah blah but that’s off professional record. Can you get / have you got antivirals?

  40. I am not sure if the Friday cover of The West Australian got a guernsey here:

    But here is the take on this from Crikey and the MEAA:

    “This is a misleading and inappropriate use of Margot Robbie’s image. Furthermore, we can confirm that despite making her career in the US, she has not resigned as a member of #MEAAequity — and she is a member of [the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists union]!
    Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance (MEAA)”

    Crikey: “The West Australian, along with business groups representing BHP and Qantas, were not happy IR laws that’ll give workers more rights passed last Friday. The paper ran a photo of actor Margot Robbie in a bath (in reference to her explainer in film The Big Short) above the headline: “They’re a dud”. A simple google, however, would’ve revealed Robbie is a proud unionist who has appeared in ads for them.”

  41. meher babasays:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 8:39 am
    This post won’t please many PBers.

    But FUBAR is correct about Antarctic sea ice.
    ————————————————————————-
    Why the laws of physics could mean a rapidly melting Antarctica might see an increase in winter sea ice. At least during the early stage at least. Though i gather, along with economics, fluid dynamics was not FUBAR’s strong point.
    1) The ice on the Antarctic continent is fresh water.
    2) Fresh water has a higher freezing point than salt water.
    3) Fresh water has a lower density than sea water (Increasing salinity by one kg/m3 results in an increase of seawater density of around 0.7 kg/m3).
    4) In a system in which a circumpolar current occur. Sea currents from further north will not cause mixing of waters around the Antarctic shores.
    5) Due to all the aforementioned in a rapidly melting event. The surface water around the Antarctic will be of lower salinity than had been previously.
    6) Hence it will freeze at higher temperatures
    7) The effect will be temporary as when temperature go even higher fresh water want freeze either.
    8) These events will likely weaken the circumpolar current . Which will allow more warm water from up north to Antarctic. Also more mixing of Antarctic waters.
    9) More mixing will disrupt the Halocline.

    Conclusion: An increase in winter (but not summer) sea ice would be the expected outcome of the early events of a catastrophic Antarctic melt event. Though as the event proceeds and world temperatures continue to increase. In the latter stages of such an event we would see massive decreases in winter sea ice (and summer too). As temperatures in winter become less conducive even for fairly fresh water to freeze. Also the failure of the circumpolar current disrupting the ability of the Halocline to be maintained. Thus lowering the freezing point of the surface water.

  44. Irene: “15 November 2016. Malcolm Turnbull has declared Bill Shorten a rank opportunist and hypocrite for his crackdown on 457 visas while opposing a higher tax on backpackers who are on working holiday visas.”

    That’s the backpacker tax that was found to be unlawful? ‘And the High Court did so hold’ …

    Yet another legal overreach by the Coalition.

  45. ”The West Australian, along with business groups representing BHP and Qantas, were not happy IR laws that’ll give workers more rights passed last Friday.”

    If that lot hate it, it must be a great idea…

  46. D&M: “I am not sure if the Friday cover of The West Australian got a guernsey here”

    ‘Way out west where the rain don’t fall
    Got a job with a company shilling for oil …’

  47. Irza

    Thanks. Xanthippe works at the Adelaide Women’s and Children’s Hospital so I am well medicated. Her boss was on the SA covid response committee so there is no shortage of advice.

    I am certainly not hospitalizable, just fatigue and headache, so if I rest and take paracetamol for the headache I am OK. Also I was fully vaccinated plus two boosters. Mainly I am sitting still trying to avoid infecting others.

  48. (I’ve been there, there, and there alert)

    C@t, the trip sound fantastic. Driving in the States is pretty straightforward. The roads and lanes rollout in front of you. For urban / semi-urban areas especially, our initial advice, really good advice, was to be well planned (though always subject to serendipities) and have a ‘flight plan’ – all roads are well numbered. We would (say, driving from NYC to the Catskills) have a sheet on the dash with all the numbered exits/changes. That was pre decent GPS, but nonetheless, forethought helps. Obs.

    A month is a long time on the road. Anyone and everyone will have their list of must-go must-see, which seemingly amounts to look at me where I’ve been. I’ll risk that for a few less immediately obvious and overlooked gems.

    You posted a pic of Monument Valley. East of Monument Valley is Mesa Verde, National Park and UNESCO listed. A. Maze. Ing. (Starting c. 7500 BC Mesa Verde was seasonally inhabited by a group of nomadic Paleo-Indians known as the Foothills Mountain Complex)

    Around Sante Fe and Tsoas is Georgia O’Keeffe country.

    West of Santa Fe is the astounding Acoma Pueblo / Sky City. (The Pueblo is situated on a 365-foot (111 m) mesa, about 60 miles (97 km) west of Albuquerque, New Mexico. The isolation and location of the Pueblo has sheltered the community for more than 1,200 years as they sought protection from the raids of the neighboring Navajo and Apache peoples)

    And then there’s the astoundingly unique Death Valley, etc etc, etc.

    You will find I think that Americans are unfailingly polite, helpful, and generous. But business is business. Tip early tip often. A roll of dollar bills in the pocket is how it works. It’s the way it is.

  49. What goes around comes around @ #1041 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 10:56 am

    meher babasays:
    Monday, December 11, 2023 at 8:39 am
    This post won’t please many PBers.

    But FUBAR is correct about Antarctic sea ice.
    ————————————————————————-
    Why the laws of physics could mean a rapidly melting Antarctica might see an increase in winter sea ice. At least during the early stage at least. Though i gather, along with economics, fluid dynamics was not FUBAR’s strong point.
    1) The ice on the Antarctic continent is fresh water.
    2) Fresh water has a higher freezing point than salt water.
    3) Fresh water has a lower density than sea water (Increasing salinity by one kg/m3 results in an increase of seawater density of around 0.7 kg/m3).
    4) In a system in which a circumpolar current occur. Sea currents from further north will not cause mixing of waters around the Antarctic shores.
    5) Due to all the aforementioned in a rapidly melting event. The surface water around the Antarctic will be of lower salinity than had been previously.
    6) Hence it will freeze at higher temperatures
    7) The effect will be temporary as when temperature go even higher fresh water want freeze either.
    8) These events will likely weaken the circumpolar current . Which will allow more warm water from up north to Antarctic. Also more mixing of Antarctic waters.
    9) More mixing will disrupt the Halocline.

    Conclusion: An increase in winter (but not summer) sea ice would be the expected outcome of the early events of a catastrophic Antarctic melt event. Though as the event proceeds and world temperatures continue to increase. In the latter stages of such an event we would see massive decreases in winter sea ice (and summer too). As temperatures in winter become less conducive even for fairly fresh water to freeze. Also the failure of the circumpolar current disrupting the ability of the Halocline to be maintained. Thus lowering the freezing point of the surface water.

    ^^^^^^^^

    great stuff thanks What goes

  50. Socrates @ #1047 Monday, December 11th, 2023 – 11:07 am

    Irza

    Thanks. Xanthippe works at the Adelaide Women’s and Children’s Hospital so I am well medicated. Her boss was on the SA covid response committee so there is no shortage of advice.

    I am certainly not hospitalizable, just fatigue and headache, so if I rest and take paracetamol for the headache I am OK. Also I was fully vaccinated plus two boosters. Mainly I am sitting still trying to avoid infecting others.

    Good to hear. Rest well.

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