WA state round-up: RedBridge poll and preselections A-Z

RedBridge Group has a rare item of state polling from Western Australia (though not as rare as in South Australia, whose affairs of the past year or so will be covered here soon), and so radically does it differ from the last state poll that it’s hard to say where things stand. This one has Labor with a two-party lead of 59.4-40.6, and while this amounts to a 10% swing from the black swan event of 2021, it is by normal standards a remarkably strong result for a government that has been led since June by Roger Cook. The primary votes are Labor 44%, Liberal 29%, Nationals 4%, Greens 11% and One Nation 3%, which compares with election results of Labor 59.9%, Liberal 21.3%, Nationals 4.0%, Greens 6.9% and One Nation 1.3%. As noted in the post below, the poll also contains federal voting intention numbers that find Labor replicating its 55-45 advantage from the 2022 election. No field work dates at this stage, but the sample was 1200.

The release of the poll is timely from the perspective of this site, as I was about ready to unload a compendium of news relevant to the March 2025 state election. Preselection news exists in particularly abundant degree for the Liberals, who have set nomination deadlines across January and February for their numerous targets of opportunity. Except where otherwise indicated, the information below is derived from two overviews last month from Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian, one concerning the Liberals and the other Labor. Margins identified below are based on my own determinations from the recently finalised redistribution.

Starting with the Liberals:

Churchlands (Labor 1.6%): The main question being asked is whether Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas will, as widely anticipated, put his name forward in the affluent northern suburbs seat of Churchlands with a view to assuming the leadership. There were suggestions he might first have to reckon with Matt Moran, an Afghanistan veteran and former Ten Network reporter now employed in government relations at naval shipbuilder Luerssen Australia, who was “understood to enjoy strong backing at branch level”. However, Katina Curtis of The West Australian reported this week on a push within the party for him to instead challenge Ian Goodenough for preselection in the federal seat of Moore. Also mentioned in relation to Churchlands (together with South Perth and Nedlands) was former party leader Zak Kirkup, whose seat of Dawesville was swept away in 2021, but he announced this week that he would not seek a comeback at the election.

Cottesloe (Liberal 7.4%): In one of two seats retained by the Liberals in 2021, incumbent David Honey, who was deposed as leader in January, faces two challengers: Sandra Brewer, who has stepped down as executive director of Property Council WA to run, and Kirsty Barrett, chartered accountant and former Cottesloe councillor. According to a further report in The West Australian this week, entertainment lawyer Richard Evans has emerged as a potential fourth contender. Also mentioned previously was Sasha Epps, solicitor for family law firm Kitto & Kitto.

South Perth (Labor 10.1%): A report on Monday from Josh Zimmerman in The West Australian identified three names in the mix for South Perth: Greg Milner, commercial and property lawyer and mayor of South Perth since 2019; Tim Houweling, director of Cornerstone Legal; and 21-year-old (possibly now 22) Peter Hudson, who was elected to Rockingham City Council in October after running for the Liberals in Brand at the 2022 federal election and at the Rockingham state by-election in July. Party sources linked Houweling to Clan faction prime mover Nick Goiran, who wields considerable influence in southern suburbs branches. An earlier report by Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times indicated Goiran was poised to back high-profile lawyer Hayley Cormann, wife of fellow Clan faction principal Matthias Cormann. However, she is “believed to have ruled herself out of contention”. UPDATE: Scratch that – Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Cormann told the party this week she would nominate.

Carine (Labor 4.0%): It was reported in November that Liam Staltari, who ran in Kalamunda in 2021 and was “viewed as a rising star”, had moved to Duncraig and was likely to nominate in a seat of Padbury that the draft redistribution proposed creating through a reconfiguration of Carine and its northern neighbour Hillarys. However, the reconfiguration was scotched in the finalised redistribution, placing Staltari in the heart of a much stronger seat for the Liberals in Carine. Should he pursue his ambitions on his home turf, he seems likely to be opposed by the defeated member from 2021, Tony Krsticevic, a member of the “Clan” faction who now serves on Stirling City Council.

Hillarys (Labor 18.9%): At a time when the draft redistribution proposed a configuration of Hillarys that would have made it much stronger for the Liberals, the seat was said to be in the sights of both Tony Krsticevic and Scott Edwardes, son of party powerbrokers Colin and Cheryl Edwardes and candidate in 2021 for Kingsley, the seat formerly held by his mother. Edwardes is part of a northern suburbs bloc that includes his parents and upper house aspirant Simon Ehrenfeld.

Nedlands (Labor 3.0%): The most widely noted contender is Brent Fleeton, City of Perth councillor and a principal of public relations firm GT Communications alongside conservative media pundit Gemma Tognini. Other names mentioned have been Anna Dartnell, an executive at resources freight firm Aurizon, and now confirmed non-starter Zak Kirkup.

Bateman (Labor 6.7%): Josh Zimmerman’s sources say Melville councillor Matt Woodall is “considered the best bet but ‘not a clear stand-out’”.

Dawesville (Labor 13.1%): Owen Mulder, head of IT strategy and integration at Woodside Energy, is “being pushed” by Nick Goiran, with whom he shares a background in the Christian Democratic Party, having been one of its candidates at the 2013 federal election. Mulder is also said to have support from Andrew Hastie, member for the corresponding federal seat of Canning.

Darling Range (Labor 14.2%): Serpentine-Jarrahdale shire president Rob Coales “looks likely to contest”.

Riverton (Labor 11.0%) and Jandakot (Labor 18.4%) Two southern suburbs seats that are “squarely in Goiran’s sphere of influence”, which “appear sewn up for Canning deputy mayor Amanda Spencer-Teo and teacher Nicole Robins respectively”.

Further afield:

Mid West (Nationals 8.2%): Mid West is an effective merger between the Nationals seats of North West Central, held by Merome Beard, and Moore, held by party leader Shane Love. Beard’s strategy for maintaining a parliamentary career that began when she succeeded Vince Catania at a by-election held in September 2022 has been to defect to the Liberals, which she did in late October, putting the two parties at parity in the lower house with three seats each and setting Beard up for a contest with her former leader.

Central Wheatbelt (Nationals 9.3%): Central Wheatbelt will be vacated at the election with the retirement of former Nationals leader Mia Davies. A report in The West Australian in August said she was likely to be succeeded as Nationals candidate by Lachlan Hunter, a former staffer to Victorian Senator Bridget McKenzie and the party’s acting state director ahead of the 2021 election. Hunter has bought a home in Northam hitherto rented by Davies and owned by her predecessor, Brendon Grylls.

Upstairs:

• The Liberal state conference in October endorsed a preselection model for the reformed Legislative Council that will continue to be based on a system of three metropolitan and three non-metropolitan regions, notwithstanding that the chamber will now be elected at large. As described by Josh Zimmerman in The West Australian, the regions will be “allocated a ‘band’ on the overall ticket based on the average Liberal primary vote they secured across the previous two elections”, excepting that the top position will go to the incumbent upper house leader – presently Steve Thomas, a member for South West region. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Nick Goiran is likely to take the third position designated to South Metropolitan region. Zimmerman reported Goiran was further expected to back lawyer Michelle Hofmann for a winnable position. Another aspirant is Simon Ehrenfeld, managing director of Zone Resource Services and a player in the previously noted northern suburbs bloc associated with the Edwardes family and former federal Stirling MP Vince Connelly. Of the five incumbents other than Goiran and Thomas not accounted for here, only Clan faction principal Peter Collier plans to retire.

On the other side of the aisle:

• Dylan Caporn and Jake Dietsch of The West Australian report Labor’s preselection formula for the reformed Legislative Council reserves the first and fifth positions for the United Workers Union sub-faction of the Left, third and seventh for the rival Left Australian Manufacturing Workers Union sub-faction, and second, fourth and sixth for the Right. The next seven positions along will follow the same pattern, with 43% being required to win fourteen seats. Upper house leader Sue Ellery will retire, and is thought likely to be joined by Sally Talbot, Martin Pritchard and Rosie Sahanna. The Right will have only three incumbents to fill its six winnable positions if Pritchard goes, but is not of a mind to use its spare capacity to accommodate incumbents from other factions. Those Josh Zimmerman’s report identifies as in jeopardy are Lorna Harper, Shelley Payne and Darren West, from the Left-aligned United Workers Union faction; Kyle McGinn, part of the Maritime Union of Australia and the Progressive Labor faction that brings together unions associated with the Right and the Industrial Left; and Peter Foster of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union sub-faction of the Left. The latter faces a further difficulty in that factional colleague Katrina Stratton, the party’s first and likely final member for Nedlands, is considering pursuing an upper house berth.

• From the lower house, Josh Zimmerman reports Margaret Quirk (Landsdale), Matthew Hughes (Kalamunda), Lisa Baker (Maylands) and Chris Tallentire (Thornlie) are expected to join Bill Johnston (Cannington) in retirement, with Baker considered likely to be succeeded by former Bayswater mayor Dan Bull. Landsdale might go to heavyweight staffer Daniel Pastorelli, currently chief-of-staff to Roger Cook, or state party president Lorna Clarke, who has an advantage over the unaligned Pastorelli in being a colleague of Quirk in the Right. South Metropolitan MLC Klara Andric has been “sounded out” for Thornlie, and the new seat of Oakford in Perth’s outer south-east is potentially of interest to Jandakot MP Yaz Mubarakai and South Metropolitan MLC Stephen Pratt.

Miscellaneous further news:

• Last month, The West Australian reported on a Painted Dog Research poll that put an array of options to respondents for preferred premier, finding Roger Cook on 19% against 7% and 5% for Labor alternatives Rita Saffioti and Amber-Jade Sanderson, and Liberal leader Libby Mettam on 12% compared with 11% for presumed Liberal aspirant Basil Zempilas and 1% for the official Opposition Leader, Nationals leader Shane Love. The poll was conducted from a sample of 635 on the weekend of November 11-12.

• Following the disqualification of South West region MLC James Hayward, a countback from the 2021 election resulted in his Nationals vacancy being filled in September by Louise Kingston, former manager of the Manjimup Community Resource Centre. Hayward resigned from the party after being charged with child sex offences in December 2021, and was convicted and imprisoned in August. Kingston used her inaugural speech to bemoan the closure of Albany’s whaling industry in 1978.

• The government passed electoral law changes last month including increased public funding for political parties, more timely public disclosure of donations with a lower threshold, and caps on campaign spending.