Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)

One poll with Labor ahead, the other with a tie, further numbers from Newspoll on the leaders’ traits, and a vacancy in the top job at the Top End.

Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.

• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.

• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).

• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 comments on “Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)”

Comments Page 26 of 32
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  1. Griff,

    It is past 6pm on Christmas Eve. The port has just been decanted and I have been firmly instructed to make myself absent whilst the better half continues to conjure magic.

    A suitable time to drop in and wish everyone season’s greetings. Thank you collectively for once again making this place an oasis, and I hope you and yours have a good year ahead.

    And a Merry Christmas to you, and all Bludgers. This is indeed a magical place.

    In my case, around 5 pm, I opened the champers, and told everyone to make scarce while I did the Christmas Eve nibbles.

    So, I came up with pingouins de Nöel, and Herisson rigolo (Christmas Penguins and an amusing hedgehog.

    The weird food actually coaxed Mr almost 11 away from the computer, willingly, which was half the point.

    However, OH decided that my hedgehog looked more like an archaeopteryx, which made my grandson even happier.

  2. Hey Boerwar

    What’s that list of things we all need to stop doing now to keep global average temperatures from exceeding growing over 1.5 degrees?

    I think people need some New Year’s resolutions suggestions…

  3. Merry xmas eve to all!

    Loving Tassie as always, just wish it was a tad warmer. But then if it was everyone would be here and it wouldn’t be the Tasmania we know it as. One thing that has struck me about Tasmania is how light it is in the evenings. Likely because it’s so far south, but it’s possible to still be out and about at 9pm without needing a torch whereas in Sydney it would be firmly nightime by then.

    Thanks to BK for his Dawn Patrol efforts this year. And thanks to William for hosting the site.

  4. nathsays:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 8:33 pm
    Who are you Entropy? you seem to have taken all before you with your Deeming-Kroger brilliance and your cunning use of quotations.

    ————————————————————————-

    It is anonymous website i could be anyone but seeing as you ask. I’ll work on a origin story and get back to you on it in a few days. Once i determine who i want to be.

    Quote: “Sir Knight of the Mirrors,” said Don Quixote, “be pleased to lift up your helmet a little, so that I may see your face.”- Miguel de Cervantes

    Note: I have nothing against windmills. So want be some crazy old man that chases and attacks windmills for no good reason. I will leave that job to Chris Uhlmann.

  5. So, here is my culinary art for Christmas Eve:

    I think the penguins are looking at my creation (the hedgehog) and thinking it is really dodgy.

  7. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 9:07 pm
    So, here is my culinary art for Christmas Eve:

    ——————————————————-

    I thought it looked great though i must admit i thought it was a Porcupine Fish.

  8. Entropy,

    I thought it looked great though i must admit i thought it was a Porcupine Fish.

    That works too!

    Also, OH says “Ankylosauraus, NOT archyopterix”.

    It seems as though I am as bad with dinosaurs as I am with geography!

  12. Well, I’ve just been Sidewalk Shopping with my son, and a bajillion mozzies, and brought home 3 Italian leather dining chairs from the house up the road! It pays to be the poorest people in the wealthier suburbs at Xmas time, people just make way for whole swathes of new things and leave their cast-offs on the verge. 😀

  15. C@t,

    Well, I’ve just been Sidewalk Shopping with my son, and a bajillion mozzies, and brought home 3 Italian leather dining chairs from the house up the road!

    Well caught!

  16. The Compliments of the Season *to all Bludgers of every ilk. May you enjoy
    love and laughter , good fortune and happiness in the coming year.

    *Phrase always used by my father at this time of year.

  19. Rewi

    “ What’s that list of things we all need to stop doing now to keep global average temperatures from exceeding growing over 1.5 degrees?”

    Santa needs to shift deliveries from a sleigh to an eBike. One of those cargo bikes?
    That means he will have to let Rudolph go.

    Plus warming Arctic waters means he can forget about keeping Santa’s workshop at the North Pole. That place is going to collapse through the thinning ice any day now.

  20. nath

    I think the penguins are adorable and the hedgehog is….. creative.

    Thanks! But the penguins, as well as being adorable, are also looking at the “hedgehog” and wondering whether it is mad, bad, or just a culinary experiment gone wrong.

    But perhaps I am anthropomorphising my penguins which are just carrots, olives, boccochini and forage frays. And lots of toothpicks!

    Also, we have already eaten them.

  22. BTW I have been looking at the Red Sea – Houthi drone strikes and what to do about them.

    I agree it is a problem and it will affect world trade. However how much Red Sea attacks affects trade to Australia, or is our responsibility, is a different question.

    In terms of legal and security responsibility, I would argue that the Suez Canal and Red Sea maritime security are the responsibility of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. The Houthis in Yemen and their Iranian weapons suppliers are the prime cause.

    In terms of interests it is a bit different. 12% of all the world’s trade goes through the Suez Canal/Red Sea. Most of it is between the EU and China. Little is Australian. Of Australia’s international trade, 5% goes to the EU via Suez.
    https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/336567/sub011-maritime-logistics.pdf

    So as I said the other day, this isn’t really Australia’s fight. That is beside the fact we are short of ships and crews to send there. It is all about the EU, their trade with China, and US support of Israel.

    Merry Christmas all.

  23. Douglas and Milko,
    Fun Fact: Senator Deborah O’Neil’s daughters are Australian champion Irish dancers. They’ve even been overseas to compete in the World Championships. 🙂

  26. Socratessays:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 10:12 pm
    Rewi

    “ What’s that list of things we all need to stop doing now to keep global average temperatures from exceeding growing over 1.5 degrees?”

    Santa needs to shift deliveries from a sleigh to an eBike. One of those cargo bikes?
    That means he will have to let Rudolph go.

    Plus warming Arctic waters means he can forget about keeping Santa’s workshop at the North Pole. That place is going to collapse through the thinning ice any day now.
    ————————————————————

    He should relocate to Antarctica. Run his workshop and electric sleigh off wind turbines. Which are placed to catch the Katabatic winds off the polar plateau.

  27. Just flicking through a few musical videos, and came across this from Bing Crosby and Davids Bowie:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCpXMy5GalI

    It reminds me of the Peace Studies unit my daughter did at university some time ago.

    After being a pacifist myself for many years, and then concluding that pacifism only works well in specific circumstances, I was sceptical about the conclusions that may be drawn in that unit of study.

    But, the unit of study suggested that we need to play a long game in getting peace on earth.

    There was also mention of a peace conference in 1920, in which both Einstein and Freud took part. One of them (Freud I think) said, “peace seems impossible, but we are all here talking about it, and that is a big step forward “(or WTTW).

    So, as depressing as the steps backward may seem, we much keep trying(my words).

    https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/league-nations-universal-dream-has-stood-test-time-0?TSPD_101_R0=080713870fab2000dc75e2e749744606dfa3bda9c0fafac4ae9dee2179d766a159e3c13ec7d2bc0f08f7153fac143000364676dbf3aa86f888c7589fbfc355c15001fdacb78574ef1ade3a2c44db8092f81cb9b739afd912cab13bba655d1072

    And the relevance to tonight: Peace on Earth, and Goodwill to all peoples!

  29. Socratessays:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 10:22 pm
    BTW I have been looking at the Red Sea – Houthi drone strikes and what to do about them.

    I agree it is a problem and it will affect world trade. However how much Red Sea attacks affects trade to Australia, or is our responsibility, is a different question.

    ——————————————————————

    I suspect Australian trade would be better off if the Red Sea was closed. As very little of our exports go through it. The only European country in our export top 10 countries is UK at number 9. It is not much further for us to export to UK via the Cape as through the Red Sea. If the Red Sea was closed Mediterranean Countries like Italy, Greece etc would find it a lot harder to ship agricultural products like Cheese and Wine to Asia. Australia would then be in a position to supply the shortfall. So on an economic argument Australia has no reason to want to keep the Red Sea open. As my crude analysis suspects our trade would improve and not decrease if it were shut.

  31. Entropy

    “ He should relocate to Antarctica. Run his workshop and electric sleigh off wind turbines. Which are placed to catch the Katabatic winds off the polar plateau.”

    Yes that may be sustainable Santa’s best long term business strategy. He could tuen Santa’s workshop into a penguin sanctuary. Great cross promotional opportunities with some of the cast of Happy Feet.

    Merry christmas. I hope everyone spends it with those they love.

  33. Confessions
    Agree about Tasmania. Have been here for 8 years now and was best move I ever made. Sunset is about 8.50pm which is the time you posted here.

    May all bludgers have a Merry Xmas.

  34. Socrates says:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 5:50 pm
    This defence industry magazine questions the rational of AUKUS, pointing out that Australia’s $4.5 billion investment in US sub building is unprecedented.
    https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/no-minister-australia-doesnt-normally-subsidise-us-defence-industry/

    Have a happy Christmas Eve all.

    ———
    A Federal Labor government priority. Fund US defence industry, which is more important than supporting lower income Australians, those doing it tough, building more affordable rentals….
    Not a happy Christmas for many Australian children and adults.

    As well as the proposed ( or existing? ) US base in Perth. Which will be used to store nuclear material from AUKUS. Both a secret?
    Another secret is the breakup of 45 Multipurpose Taipan Helicopters, leaving effectively none to help with FNQ evacuations and supply.
    Bad choice, bad training, or bad maintenance by the Army?

    As well as ex PM Paul Keating’s view on the $368billion attack nuclear submarine deal. If the Asia pacific defence reporter says Australia is providing $4.5billion to subsidise the Australian defence industry, where is the remaining well over $300billion being spent. Is this all for the UK? Certainly some will go to past and present Liberal MPs, contractors, donors, Liberal mates.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/15/paul-keating-labels-aukus-submarine-pact-worst-deal-in-all-history-in-attack-on-albanese-government#:~:text=The%20%24368bn%20being%20spent,to%2050%20conventional%20submarines%20instead.

    Labor need a big loss of seats to show them how far this policy strays from their stated philosophy. Of ‘no one left behind’. As well as waste on a grand scale. Obviously Labor can’t manage money. Equal to the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison government’s bad policy decisions and wastage.

  36. Though it is still three hours away here in Perth, Merry Christmas to you all, with a special call out to Mr Bowe for the lively venue.

    Thank you all for the interesting and occasionally well informed discussions.

    My kids and I have been busy here in the west ringing bells all day at St George’s Cathedral and The Bell Tower (which has a political story all of its own). Never a dull moment in Perth, apparently.

  37. Christmas greetings from wonderful Savu Savu on the island of Vanua Levu in Fiji

    Wishing all bludgers a merry Christmas, and thanks for making this such an interesting place to lurk and occasionally post on. Extra special thanks of course to our host Mr Bowe and without saying to BK, if I can’t keep up with the news your roundup is more than invaluable

    It’s my first Christmas away from home , just the wife and kids but we’ve been having a lovely time thus far, and I have a 2 day private fishing charter booked in a couple of days which should be absolutely epic!

    Bula, and merry Christmas


  38. 3z @ #990 Friday, December 22nd, 2023 – 11:53 pm

    Rex Douglas, were you actually suggesting that the government needs to get behind Senator Thorpe to stay true to the Uluru Statement from the Heart?

    The same Senator Thorpe who walked out of the Uluru dialogue (and indeed, walked out of the Victorian Treaty process twice)? The same Senator Thorpe who ardently campaigned against the Voice referendum, and claimed credit for its defeat, despite this being the first plank of the Uluru Statement? The referendum on which government has, clearly, spent a huge amount of political capital?

    And now, the government needs to follow Senator Thorpe’s diktats in order to stay true to the Uluru Statement? Listening to Senator Thorpe rather than Aboroginal and Torres Strait Islander elders and communities about what should come next?

    Get stuffed Rex.

    Well put. Who knows what Senator Thorpe wants, one thing for sure she has destroyed the Uluru process and the Greens parties reputation on the subject. Ya it was fun to make life difficult for Labor, but it destroyed decades of work undertaken by the Aboriginal community. She seems to have got what she wanted, nothing?

  39. Merry Christmas from my sister’s home in Battersea, UK.

    I am fresh from singing carols in Royal Albert Hall…….. with 5,500 others.

  46. Happy holidays everyone. It’s a gorgeous day in Hobart today, sunshine and no wind. Much different from home which looks like armageddon has struck.

  49. Merry Christmas all from a sodden and cool Melbourne.

    It rained most of last night and early this morning with more showers and storms forecast through the day and well into Boxing Day.

    Temp to be around 23c

    I am pleased about this as it will hopefully lower the temperatures and stress levels in many households on what is undoubtably one of the most stressful and sad times for many.

    Stay safe, be kind and take it essy on the mince pies.

  50. ‘Rewi says:
    Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 8:45 pm

    Hey Boerwar

    What’s that list of things we all need to stop doing now to keep global average temperatures from exceeding growing over 1.5 degrees?

    I think people need some New Year’s resolutions suggestions…’
    ———————————————-
    Well. Since you asked…

    A general one would be for us wealthy ones* to teach ourselves to want less and to consume less but to enjoy to the full that which we do consume.

    We’re off to a flier: no presents**. The adult family presents funds have been pooled and will be sent off to where they meet needs rather than wants.

    *Using a world scale, not a national scale.

    **kids excepted!

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