Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)

One poll with Labor ahead, the other with a tie, further numbers from Newspoll on the leaders’ traits, and a vacancy in the top job at the Top End.

Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.

• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.

• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).

• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 comments on “Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)”

Comments Page 27 of 32
1 … 26 27 28 … 32

  2. And a Happy Christmas to all who celebrate the Gregorian calendar date.

    Heading off to family festivities in the Southern Highlands. Backyard cricket may be on pause this year looking at the weather forecast..

    Max 21
    Showers increasing.
    Storm.
    Chance of any rain: 95%
    Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. A thunderstorm likely, possibly severe. Winds east to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h.

  3. I saved a spectacular Xmas tree till the day:

    The newly opened Swarovski flagship store on Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan was done in a palette of striking pastel pinks, greens and yellows. The winding pink marble staircase is particularly stunning, and that’s where you’ll find the store’s decidedly extra Christmas tree. Its design was clearly inspired by the boutique space’s marble, chrome, quilted velvets and silks, not to mention Swarovski’s signature eight-sided gift boxes.

  4. Merry Christmas to all!

    And a little boo boo in the SMH landing page today (until they fix it):

    The horror of Islamic State, then the gift of a child: My Christmas to remember

    Andrew Hastie
    Assistant Defence Minister

  6. Grant_ExLibris @ #1299 Monday, December 25th, 2023 – 8:16 am

    Merry Christmas all from a sodden and cool Melbourne.

    It rained most of last night and early this morning with more showers and storms forecast through the day and well into Boxing Day.

    Temp to be around 23c

    I am sitting here freezing in Sunbury hoping that the rain eases for around 10am for my little dog and the walker. Luckily we are only going down the road to a local pub for lunch.

  7. Merry Christmas to all from yabba.

    Special thanks to BK for my never-missed morning news top ups, and to William for providing this fascinating meeting place.

    I hope all have a nurturing place to be, with those that you love, and safety, on this special day.

    Cheers, yabba. Go well.

  8. Confessions@7.28 am:
    Armageddon seems to have been selectively implemented through the Sydney region. I’m currently spending Christmas Day near Liverpool which has had some rain, but the part of Bennelong in which I usually reside has, so far, had very little.

    Greetings to all, especially William and BK.

  11. To Bennelong Lurker, laughtong, Griff, muskiemp, Victoria, citizen, sprocket_, Boerwar, Grant_ExLibris, Late Riser, Confessions, frednk, Shellbell, PageBoi, Andrew_Earlwood, yabba, meher baba, nath, Eston Kohver, steve davis, Aqualung, Irene, Socrates, Entropy. Have I missed anyone?

  12. Happy Mithras’s birthday!

    Thinking further about the Houthi-Iranian induced threat to merchant shipping through the Red Sea and the useful contributions on the subject from Socrates, Boerwar and Entropy – amongst others – I’m no longer persuaded that this is our fight. Even though it should rank well above ‘in your face, China’ freedumbs exercises in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. I can see why the government would not want to cancel leave arrangements during the annual summer fleet shutdown to join this exercise, which seems to have encountered some difficulties in actually putting together. Perhaps a single cruise by a Hobart AWD in around march-June next year would be sufficient: and the government seems to have left that option on the table (however, if it did send a ship later on, the LNP and Labor hostile media would then pile on, claiming that decision to be a backdown by a ‘weak’ government and another political victory to generalissimo Dutton).

    Very little Australian trade goes through the Suez-canal. A lot less than even i imagined a few days ago. This article illustrates our trade priorities. I suspect there may even be a short term dividend to Australian exports if the Red Sea crisis continues:

    https://www.globalaustralia.gov.au/why-australia/global-connections#:~:text=China%20is%20our%20largest%20trading,significant%20bloc%20for%20Australian%20trade.

  14. #WeatheronPb. The Sydney area was beset by hit or miss thunderstorms yesterday, some severe. Little Bay (near the Northern Headland of Botany Bay) received 110 mm of rain, mostly in a couple of hours in the early evening. Sydney Airport received 90 mm, with flash flooding in the area.

    Today’s forecast is more of the same although it’s quite benign at the moment.

    Off to the Central Coast soon. Merry Christmas to William and to all posters and lurkers here, be they ALP, Coalition, Green or Independent / Other.

  15. Season’s greetings to all the contributors and lurkers here. In Marble Bar on call, hoping for no illness or injuries. Beautiful morning, not yet up to thirty degrees at 6:20, but the flies are plentiful if you venture outside.
    Thank you, William, for providing the site; and a big thanks to BK for making it easy to keep up with the news that matters, I dips me lid to you mate.
    I plan to spend time today spinning some honey. May to October is the peak honey producing time here, so today’s harvest will be the last until mid 2024. It was a great year for bees. Started with six hives, finished with sixteen, and honey production year-to-date is over 700kg.
    Be kind to each other, and best wishes for 2024.

  17. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 8:45 am
    citizen @ #1304 Monday, December 25th, 2023 – 8:37 am

    Merry Christmas to all!

    And a little boo boo in the SMH landing page today (until they fix it):

    The horror of Islamic State, then the gift of a child: My Christmas to remember

    Andrew Hastie
    Assistant Defence Minister

    I noticed that as well.
    ”

    MSM works based on the assumption that LNP is always in power.

  18. Merry Christmas to all and bless your luck if it is a wet one. We have an extreme fire danger rating in my part of the cave and I drew the short straw to become Team Leader if my brigade gets a call. On the up side, if you can’t be with your kids and grandchildren, a bunch of volunteers is just as good. Cheers

  19. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 8:35 am
    I saved a spectacular Xmas tree till the day:

    The newly opened Swarovski flagship store on Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan was done in a palette of striking pastel pinks, greens and yellows. The winding pink marble staircase is particularly stunning, and that’s where you’ll find the store’s decidedly extra Christmas tree. Its design was clearly inspired by the boutique space’s marble, chrome, quilted velvets and silks, not to mention Swarovski’s signature eight-sided gift boxes.
    ”

    My OH said after seeing the photo”no wonder Swarovski jewellery is expensive”. 🙂

  21. Christmas wishes from here in the state seat of Ripon Vic. Has been raining since about 4pm yesterday with a few thunder breaks with at least 50mm so far – with any luck will continue and keep the cooker neighbors indoors and no bogun BBQs from happening.

  22. Merry Christmas everyone from Adelaide. Quite cool in the eastern suburbs this morning, only about 18 C. Very pleasant for a sleep in though.

    Andrew Earlwood, yes our use of the Suez canal is also partly a factor of what we export. The big (Cape size) bulk carriers go to Europe via the Cape, so Suez means less to us than others. We’d be on a hiding to nothing there.

    Despite the critics (the usual suspects) Albo and Marles got this call (Red Sea) right. Good to see government are listening more to DFAT and less to the ADF.

  24. A-E (and Soc)

    Your post triggered memories of Asterix and the pirates which led naturally to Rome’s trouble with pirates and the economic consequences therefrom and thence to this site, which, IMO has some pertinent global and particular considerations.

    With respect to the Red Sea I suggest the following considerations:

    All state, piratical and organized non-state threats anywhere to trade, to the laws of the sea and to international conventions on rights of passage are a global threat to trade. Where a balanced national response lies is the open question.

    Thinking big picture and medium- to long- term, closure of both the Red Sea route and China sitting in the Solomons astride our most important strategic communications cables and maritime re-supply axis have huge long term implications for Australia’s security.

    https://www.everythingasterix.com/latin-jokes-content/2016/2/22/asterix-and-obelix-all-at-sea-latin-jokes-explained

  25. Boerwar

    I am not saying do nothing about Red Sea. We should support action to protect sea trade. But that action should be led by the many other NATO and OECD countries that benefit most from Suez Canal trade. Several NATO navies with no stake in the conflict have also declined to send ships, including Denmark, Holland and Norway.

    There is also the politics of how the Red Sea patrol plan has been set up, how it relates to the Israel – Gaza conflict, and what US objectives are vis a vis supporting Israel. Spain, France and Italy have all sent warships, but not under US command. The Houthis have said explicitly that they will target Israeli flagged ships, Israeli owned or operated ships, and ships from nations supporting Israel. Spain, France and Italy are protecting their own ships, but do not want to get tied to the US Gaza policy.
    https://gcaptain.com/spain-italy-france-decline-us-command-of-red-sea-operation-prosperity-guardian/

  26. Since A-E, Socrates and BW discussed warship deployment.

    Here is a story of warship deployment by Britain to Guyana amid Guyana and Venezuela border dispute.

    Britain to send patrol ship to Guyana amid Venezuela border dispute

    HMS Trent will take part in exercises with Guyana as tensions over mineral-rich Essequibo region raise anxieties

    https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/24/britain-to-send-patrol-ship-to-guyana-amid-venezuela-border-dispute?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17034581003287&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2023%2Fdec%2F24%2Fbritain-to-send-patrol-ship-to-guyana-amid-venezuela-border-dispute

  27. Russia’s Akula-Class Attack Submarines Have Just One Mission

    https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-akula-class-attack-submarines-have-just-one-mission-208125

    “Russia’s Akula-class may be nearing their third decade but continue to seem to be the mainstay of the country’s nuclear attack submarine sea-based force. They were designed to compete and sink any submarine or surface warship on the planet – and that means the U.S. Navy for sure.

    First deployed by the Soviet Navy back in the mid-1980s, Project 971 “Shchuka-B” is a family of fourth-generation nuclear-powered SSNs equipped with stellar acoustic stealth capabilities. In fact, anti-submarine warfare specialists today struggle to detect the Akula-class ships despite technological advances.”

  28. Socrates says:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 10:21 am

    Reasonable considerations, IMO.

    A further consideration is possibly that, de facto, inaction in the Red Sea is giving an imprimatur to the Houthis, Hamas, Heshbollah and Iran.

    The ticklish naval policy bit is separating a general approach to freedom of navigation from particular regional issues.

  29. There have been some very heavy rain overnight in parts of Victoria.

    My folks report Kyneton had 88 mm overnight and 44 mm in 30 minutes during a very short, sharp storm.

    Tomorrow’s Boxing Day test and the Sydney to Hobart will be interesting affairs. Hopefully smarter heads will prevail wrt to expected rough conditions in the Tasman and Bass Strait and the RAN and merchant ships not needing to rescue stricken sailors from damaged or sinking yachts.

  33. Sorry to do this to our Sandgroper Bludgers, but because it’s a mild Xmas Day over here in the East, my son has done for Xmas what he has always wanted to do. Put a 4K video of a crackling log fire on the TV. 😐

  35. frednksays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 5:57 am
    The drought promised by the BOM is not going well.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2401228-twin-ocean-climate-anomalies-may-trigger-heat-and-drought-in-2024/

    ———————————————————

    Yes, Western Australia’s west and south west coastal region have suffered one of the worst droughts since federation. They have also been suffering severe heatwave conditions too. In is certainly not going well if you live in the West.

  37. Happy Commons Day from the surf of Newcastle City Beach. Thanks to WB & all PBers for the relative sanity of PB – long may it linger.

  39. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 9:23 am
    Happy Mithras’s birthday!

    Thinking further about the Houthi-Iranian induced threat to merchant shipping through the Red Sea and the useful contributions on the subject from Socrates, Boerwar and Entropy – amongst .

    Very little Australian trade goes through the Suez-canal. A lot less than even i imagined a few days ago. This article illustrates our trade priorities. I suspect there may even be a short term dividend to Australian exports if the Red Sea crisis continues:

    ——————————————————————

    I suspect our Agriculture trade to Asia would benefit short term by a lack of European competition. Though i guess as an outgoing tide lowers all boats we would not be immune to any global down turns that could result from a trade disruption in the Red Sea. Though any affect on us would be pretty indirect. Personally i think the countries that are far more directly effected by this economically should deal with this one.

    Merry Christmas everyone and may you catch nothing but laughter today.

    Quote: “There is nothing in the world so irresistibly contagious as laughter and good humor.”
    ― Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol

  40. Vensays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:10 am
    The seven friendliest towns in NSW as per World Atlas.

    https://www.worldatlas.com/cities/7-of-the-friendliest-small-towns-in-new-south-wales.html

    Bermagui, Berry, Currarong, Echuca Moama, Eden, Griffith and Huskisson

    ———————————————————————

    Are you trying to start a Victorian/NSW war?. Please check geographical location of Echuca before posting next time.

  41. Vensays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:10 am
    The seven friendliest towns in NSW as per World Atlas.

    Bermagui, Berry, Currarong, Echuca Moama, Eden, Griffith and Huskisson

    ———————————————————————

    Are you trying to start a Victorian/NSW war?. Please check geographical location of Echuca before posting next time.

  42. Put a 4K video of a crackling log fire on the TV.
    __________
    It’s cold and raining here and the kids have just actually lit the wood fire!
    Christmas ambience.

  45. On behalf of the PBLU (Poll Bludger Lurker’s Union) wishing you all a Merry Xmas and happy festive season from the centre of Sydney, Bankstown (well the criminal centre)

    Special thanks to comrades WB and BK for their outstanding work

    Cheers

  47. Rossmcg: we’re having a pretty sunny one in Hobart, as Confessions has already reported.

    Perhaps they only meant mainland capitals.

    Merry Xmas to all from the Deep South.

    PS. c@t. I think you might have missed Douglas and Milko from your earlier lists of Merry Xmas recipients.

    And, for one, I’d like to wish zoomster a happy Xmas. If you’re reading, I’d love to see you back here.

    And happy xmas to Lars too.

    (I’ve already had a couple of wines, which must explain it.)

  50. Ven @ Monday, December 25, 2023 at 1:40 pm:

    “It’s a Wonderful Life on Fox Classics tonight at 8:35 pm”
    ============

    Best.Christmas.Movie.Ever. We watched it last night before going to midnight mass.

Comments Page 27 of 32
1 … 26 27 28 … 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *