Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)

One poll with Labor ahead, the other with a tie, further numbers from Newspoll on the leaders’ traits, and a vacancy in the top job at the Top End.

Roy Morgan might plough on this week with a poll to be dropped next Wednesday or so, but what follows are most likely the last items of polling we will see for the year. The Australian traditionally drops aggregated Newspoll breakdowns in the dead zone after Christmas, but it will only have three polls to aggregate from on this occasion, unless it supplements them somehow.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll showing Labor leading 52.8-47.2 (in from 53.5-46.5 in the last such poll in early November), though seemingly all reportage of the poll has painted it as disastrous for Labor because the small sample of respondents with trades qualifications has the Coalition ahead. The primary votes are Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady) and Greens 13% (down one). The accompanying report includes extensive further questions on national direction, issue salience and immigration. The poll was conducted December 6 to 11 from an unusually large sample of 2010.

• The latest weekly poll from Roy Morgan has a tie on two-party preferred, erasing Labor’s 51-49 lead over the previous two weeks. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up one-and-a-half), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11.5% (down two-and-a-half) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1720.

• The Australian had further results from Newspoll on the leaders’ character traits, which it published in a comprehensive display showing earlier numbers for the results going back to 2008 which is worth seeking out if you’re interested in this sort of thing. Anthony Albanese had higher ratings for trustworthy (49% to 41%), in touch (46% to 41%), caring (61% to 45%), likeable (57% to 39%) and having a vision for Australia (59% to 55%), and was less likely to be seen as arrogant (45% to 57%). Peter Dutton led on experienced (70% to 66%), decisive and strong (58% to 48%) and understanding the major issues (57% to 54%).

• Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigned yesterday after nineteen months in the job, amid revelations she had failed to declare a conflict of interest relating to shares in mining company South 32. It presumably didn’t help that a RedBridge Group poll, conducted in the middle of last month from a sample of 601, had Labor trailing the Country Liberals by 40.6% to 19.7% (although the poll found Labor doing little better federally, and its age breakdowns included the implausible finding that the gap was 40% to 11% among the 18-to-39 age cohort). Names mentioned as possible contenders are her deputy, Nicole Manison, Infrastructure Minister Joel Bowden and Attorney-General Chansey Paech.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,596 comments on “Polls: RedBridge, Morgan and more Newspoll, plus NT leadership change (open thread)”

Comments Page 28 of 32
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  1. “Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:10 am
    The seven friendliest towns in NSW as per World Atlas.

    Bermagui, Berry, Currarong, Echuca Moama, Eden, Griffith and Huskisson”

    _______

    Echuca is definitely in Victoria: it was where I was born. But it’s part of a ‘twin town’ with Moama – which is nsw.

    Currarong is where our family took our Christmas last year: lovely, especially swimming with the resident manta ray every morning.

    Berry, Griffith and Huski are all regular haunts of mine. Griffith has the best steakhouse I’ve ever been to: the Bell and Bull in the Gem Hotel.

  2. Happy Christmas everyone.

    It’s interesting that the blog is such a part of many lives, and I join with others in giving thanks to those who make it so.

    We’re done, and back home supine (nose and toes up) after a very Christmasy family lunch. The weather was unexpectedly good – broken clouds spread across Sydney Blue skies, frangipani and still salty warm perfumed air, and a sense of calm …. before the storm apparently; it’s looking like we could get a repeat of last night’s downpour.

    Peace and Goodwill, and all that Jazz.

  3. If you’re one of the incredible first responders dealing with emergencies across our state – including in my part of the world – thank you for everything you’re doing to keep us all safe.Every single Victorian appreciates it, especially today.— Jacinta Allan (@JacintaAllanMP) December 25, 2023

    Well said.

    Roads are treacherous. Lots of flooding. Hope everyone is safe and sound.

  4. Not sure how anyone can be more upset about the protesters last night than what they protested about.

    Anyway, peace to all bludgers..

  5. As a long time lurker (crikey days )I seriously appreciate everyones efforts .This and crikey keep me sane .there are some serious brains(and experience ) behind some of the posts. Just the commentary on our military purchasing is worth the coin .The labor green wars are tiresome and the unhinged obviously young tory plants who float in and out are sought of amusing .mainstream news does my head in.7 especially is very fox news ish .in QLD anyway .Cheers from Nambour

  7. PS. c@t. I think you might have missed Douglas and Milko from your earlier lists of Merry Xmas recipients.

    I posted a Pingu themed Xmas message to Douglas and Milko last night, as well as a black cat in a Xmas tree. She was well covered. 🙂

  8. Well I’m as full as a goog, as my old mum would say. A Jamie Oliver recipe Roast Chook with honey-glazed roast carrots, onions, sweet potatoes, potatoes, pumpkin and garlic cloves. Plus my friend brought over a non-alcoholic Watermelon Trifle with peanut brittle shards. Delicious! We sat out the back afterwards and chatted in the muggy Sydney afternoon warmth with the sliding door open so we could hear the Xmas carols playing on You Tube on the TV. Over a backdrop of a crackling fire, of course. 😀

  9. shellbell says:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 5:54 pm
    Goose for lunch?
    I love geese

    ______________

    Since being chased by one as a child, I consider geese fair game.

  11. Merry Xmas and cheers to all in the Pollbludger family, lurkers included.

    Hope you’re all having a great time.

    Spending Xmas at my sisters in Thirroul NSW with family and friends.

    Thanks, William for your excellent site, the best I’ve seen.

    Can’t forget BK and the morning round up, great start to the day.

    Everyone stay well and happy and see you in the New Year.

    ** edited. Meant to add missing Upnorth and Cronus. Hope both are well and having a break.

  12. I note that Starc kept his place for tomorrows Boxing Day test despite bowling absolute rubbish in Perth.

    No Scotty Boland, not one Victorian playing on the MCG.

    Boooo ..!!

  17. Merry Festivus bludger peeps one and all. Wishing you all well today and for whatever the new year brings.

    Fire is on, red wine finished, whisky at the ready and gonna try to focus on some games with the Katich kids.

  18. Best wishes to everyone of all political colours from a long-time lurker. And especially to Mr. Bowe for making this site available, and to BK, my morning would not be complete without his wonderful daily round-up!

  19. I “think” I had a wonderful time at Southport Sharks, mainly with family. The food was great, as was the venue. This is my 75th XMAS, but I’d rather be in Rio. My New Year resolution is to be more caring & sharing; but if history’s a guide?

  20. Thank you, WB, and the gang.

    Great site, now that the age can no longer be trusted, independent, all ways!

    Meanwhile, SMRs still do not exist.

    Merry Friendmas.

  24. Hobart weather has been sterling today. We had xmas picnic near a river which was gorgeous, and then made our way up to Mt Wellington. The views were to die for, evidenced by the massive queue to get into the carpark that stretch well down the mountain. Obviously everyone else noted the fantastic weather conditions and decided to take advantage.

  29. Team Katich @ #1375 Monday, December 25th, 2023 – 10:51 pm

    Oh C@t! Sorry to worry you. I’m chipper skipper – just lots on my plate and no mental or emotional space for politics, current affairs and hence posting on this blog.

    I’ll check in a little more regularly in the new year to keep an eye on the PB reprobates.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MZukiRrYROA

    Um, TK, you are a reprobate yourself! 😉

    Anyway, good to hear that your life is full of pleasure. That’s the best way to be. 🙂

    It’s amazing, isn’t it, how some people are just born to be extremely talented performers?

    So I will now unleash that song on my straighty 180 son and watch him recoil in horror. Or he may love it, you never can tell with kids. 😆

  31. Some of Australia’s largest and best-known brands are being urged to remove a tracking tool from Chinese-owned social media giant TikTok, amid revelations it is harvesting Australians’ data including email addresses, mobile phone numbers and browsing histories without their knowledge or consent, in a potential breach of the nation’s privacy laws.
    TikTok’s tracking tool, known as a pixel, is an invisible piece of code that tracks a user’s web history and personal information, even if the user doesn’t have a TikTok account. The pixel can then track a user across the internet and piece together their identity including their email, phone number and buying habits – even if they don’t have TikTok on their phone.
    Marketers often use tracking pixels for legitimate purposes, including re-targeting campaigns and to deliver more relevant ads that follow users across websites. Tech giants such as Meta (owner of Facebook) and Google have their own tracking pixels. But tests show the pixel from TikTok, owned by Beijing-based parent company ByteDance, doesn’t wait for user consent and is more aggressive in how it scrapes the data – data that may be made available for sharing with other Chinese corporations and the Chinese government. The revelations have prompted calls for Australia’s information commissioner to urgently launch an investigation and for websites to remove TikTok’s tracking pixel.
    https://www.theage.com.au/technology/mass-breach-of-privacy-tiktok-under-fire-for-tracking-users-online-20231224-p5etik.html

  32. Confessionssays:
    Monday, December 25, 2023 at 9:53 pm
    Hobart weather has been sterling today. We had xmas picnic near a river which was gorgeous, and then made our way up to Mt Wellington. The views were to die for, evidenced by the massive queue to get into the carpark that stretch well down the mountain. Obviously everyone else noted the fantastic weather conditions and decided to take advantage.

    This year marked the 30 year anniversary of my friends and all their extensive families and I going up the mountain at 430am to watch the sunrise.

    Was a cracker this time around. Been up there in snow, sleet, rain, 100kmh winds, and glorious sunshine.

    The youngest of the kids was 9 weeks old on her first sunrise up there, she’s now 11. The oldest grandparent in their 80s. Coffee and pancakes is the standard fair to watch the dawn.

    Enjoy your time down here, it’s special.

  33. This year marked the 30 year anniversary of my friends and all their extensive families and I going up the mountain at 430am to watch the sunrise.

    Wow that’s keen. I bet it was beautiful though, with no cloud yesterday morning to obscure the view. One thing that did strike me was the absence of wind at the summit. It was very breezy where we picnicked, but at the top of the mountain, no wind at all. That seems strange to me.

    I’m loving Tasmania so far and couldn’t have asked for better weather.

  35. Here’s a Dawn Patrol for those who may be interested in reading and not watching the Boxing Day Cricket Test or the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race:

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers used the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), released earlier this month, to change the pollution threshold.

    Previously, vehicles that consumed more than seven litres of fuel per 100 kilometres were subject to the tax, but the standard has tightened to apply to vehicles that consume more than 3.5 litres of fuel per 100 kilometres.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hybrid-vehicle-tax-hike-to-add-thousands-of-dollars-to-price-tags-20231219-p5eska.html

    Inflation, high interest rates, dwindling consumer confidence, a tight labour market and an aggressive tax office will push more businesses into bankruptcy by the second half of next year.

    That is the view of insolvency and company restructuring specialists, who are bracing for a correction to the record low levels of business collapses since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic as a result of pumped-up government stimulus and a lenient Australian Taxation Office.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/businesses-that-survived-as-result-of-pandemic-tipped-to-collapse-in-2024-20231218-p5es4c.html

    This article contains data and graphs on where and how spending has declined as a result of the ‘credit crunch’ post Covid:

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/feeling-the-cost-of-living-crisis-charts-reveal-who-s-getting-off-lightly-and-who-s-suffering-most-20231221-p5et1u.html

    Beware if you use TikTok.

    TikTok is under fire for tool that track users online without their knowledge

    The social media’s tool, known as a pixel, is an invisible piece of code that tracks a user’s web history and personal information, even if they don’t have a TikTok account.

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/mass-breach-of-privacy-tiktok-under-fire-for-tracking-users-online-20231224-p5etik.html

    An Israeli airstrike outside the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday killed a senior adviser in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, three security sources and Iranian state media said.

    The sources told Reuters that the adviser, known as Sayyed Razi Mousavi, was responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Syria and Iran.

    Iran has sent hundreds of Guards as “advisers” to help train and organise thousands of Shiite militia fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to back the government in the Syrian conflict. Fighters from Lebanon’s Hezbollah have also worked closely with Iranian military commanders in Syria.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-airstrike-kills-senior-iranian-revolutionary-guards-general-in-syria-20231226-p5etlv.html

    This sounds unbelievable but it’s true apparently. The recovery in the property market has lifted Australians’ wealth to record levels – but they are selling off the family silver to help cover their high cost of living.

    In a sign of the growing pressures facing many people, Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows that for the first time since the global financial crisis, households are spending more than they earn, even as their homes soar in value.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wealth-reaches-record-levels-but-households-can-t-meet-daily-bills-20231222-p5et8r.html

    Vladimir Putin wants to talk ceasefire. Or he doesn’t, depending on which day of the week it is.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/putin-quietly-signals-he-is-open-to-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine-20231224-p5etin.html

    Jobseekers say employment system forcing them into jobs with ‘terrible hours, conditions and pay’
    Workers claim they have been forced to clean up human faeces, had payments cut off after a death in the family and have had to cancel work to attend provider appointments

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/26/jobseekers-say-employment-system-forcing-them-into-jobs-with-terrible-hours-conditions-and-pay

    ‘Four years of getting even’: voters in former Trump stronghold mixed on possible second term
    Pennsylvanians largely downplayed his vow to be ‘dictator’ on day one of new term, while others are soured on 45th president

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/25/pennsylvania-trump-supporters-undecided-presidential-election-2024

    ‘My job to convince them’: Steven Miles knows climate change is coming for Queensland
    Exclusive: New premier hopes to navigate path to transition in disaster-prone state that makes billions from coal

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/dec/24/my-job-to-convince-them-steven-miles-knows-climate-change-is-coming-for-queensland

    So, that’s it for the moment as I’m off to the Boxing Day sales!

  37. The Lincoln Project has released an ad targeting former President Trump and seeking to take advantage of the social media furor over #TrumpSmells hashtag. Accompanied with a post saying “Is that you Donald?” and the #TrumpSmells hashtag, the ad was posted to X, formerly Twitter, by the anti-Trump organization Saturday. The 40-second ad features a series of notoriously foul-smelling scenes, including garbage dumps, animal feces, dirty diapers and moldy cheese, mocking Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. The ad, titled “Limburger,” was released by the political advocacy group started primarily by Republicans aimed at defeating Trump in his bid for the White House.
    The depictions are set to an audio track of a person sniffing and coughing at the smells. At one point, as the camera showed the front of Trump Tower in New York, a deep voice said, “claiming the former president smells bad.” The voice of comedian Kathy Griffith then is heard saying, “The Donald has a distinct smell. It’s like, body odor, with kind of like a scented make-up product.” At the end of the ad, a generic female voice sniffs, coughs, and grimaces, before asking, “Donald, is that you?” as flies are heard buzzing in the background.

  38. Mostly Interested says:
    Tuesday, December 26, 2023 at 6:42 am

    This is what greeted us yesterday morning.
    …’
    ——————-
    Great photo.

  40. I enjoy finding strange typos in news articles – and the TV subtitles for the hard-of-hearing.
    This morning’s contribution by the ABC – about the old Pacific Highway in the Hawkesbury River area.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-26/old-pacific-highway-crash-survivor-speed-change-pleas-nsw/103253856

    “A recent survey of more than 130 residents showed more than 90 per cent felt intimated while travelling on the road, while nearly 80 per cent said they had experienced near misses.”

    I don’t think “intimated” is a real word, but this does sound interesting!

  44. Morning

    Somewhat drier conditions here in Melbourne albeit slightly humid.

    Looks like we might get at least the morning session in at the MCG before more storms this afternoon.

    Heading to Kyneton for Boxing Day lunch with my folks. K had a battering on Sunday with heavy hail and significant damage to the local bowls club and localised flooding in the area.

  47. Energex:

    The Gold Coast and areas south of Brisbane are facing a massive recovery effort after some of the worst storms on record. Currently, more than 110,000 homes and businesses are without power, including 72,000 across the Gold Coast, more than 15,500 in each of the Logan and Scenic Rim council areas, and 3500 in the Redlands.

    If you need to be outside, watch for fallen powerlines – report any you see ASAP to 000 or 13 19 62, stay well away, and warn others. Never, ever assume that a downed powerline is anything other than live and dangerous.

    Our network has been demolished in some areas: more than 500 sections of powerline are on the deck, and hundreds of poles are seriously damaged or snapped, and at least one high-voltage concrete pole has been snapped.

    There’s no easy way to say this, but some customers will not have power for days – we’re looking at catastrophic and widespread damage on the scale of a cyclone. Reports of further severe damage are coming through every minute – until we understand the extent of the repair job, we simply can’t provide estimated restoration timeframes.

    • Please – – we don’t know when your power will be back on at this time. To report fallen powerlines, call 13 19 62 or 000.
    • – we don’t have the information yet.
    • : If you or a member of your household relies on electrically powered medical aids, you need to put your contingency plans into action.

  48. Were you watching the same test as me last week Rex? Starc bowled brilliantly at times. Took 5 crucial wickets at important times in the match. More than Cummins or Hazlewood. Lyon was the only one who bowled better.

    You cannot expect Boland to repeat his heroics of 2 yrs ago and take that number of wickets again having played few tests since. It’s not how it works.

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