New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,460 comments on “New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)”

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  1. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:24 am

    Melbourne Mammoth,

    Also, I wonder if your parents realise what a scam charity has become? High salaries for the executives, and a trickle down of money for the actual recipients of the charity?

    ___________________________________________

    It does depend on the charity. There are many with strong open balance sheets that do a world of good.

    The biggest scam of all is licensed clubs, where senior management gets paid as much as or more than the PM while staff are just happy to have a job that pays award wages and who can be wheeled out to complain about how they would lose their jobs if gambling addicts were given serious assistance in beating their addictions.

  2. Oakeshott Country @ #1442 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 10:05 am

    Itza
    Melba may have been too much of a challenge for your grandmother.
    Melba died of sepsis, probably necrosis or erysipelas related following a botched facelift. Some say it was several months after surgery in Europe but I prefer the version that it occurred at St Lukes

    Would not have been a pretty sight.

    Ah ha. A simpler, more practical, if less romantic explanation. It sent me googling. I didn’t know she died at St Vs. In 1931 – well before Penicillin made it into clinical practice wasn’t it. No, not pretty.

    St Lukes I’ve spent a fair amount of time in. It had quite a reputation in its day, very much the Private Hospital for Sydney Hospital, while St Vincent’s had its own, and RNSH had Wakehurst.

    It’s easy to forget, and take for granted, medical progress in our times. I mean look at antivirals, and targeted gene therapy. I remember being taught that Pentothal killed more Americans in Pearl Harbour than the Japs. Just a blink in time ago.

  3. MelbourneMammoth says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:11 am
    Well it seems aged care facilities are now going to get my estranged parents’ assets rather than their preferred charities. I don’t know what to say.

    _____________________________________________

    It will most likely be the Government that will benefit, rather than aged care facilities – depends on whether they are privately run or public. In either case, the idea is sound to relieve the prospective burden on taxpayers slightly. Speaking as a boomer with some assets.

  4. MelbourneMammoth @ #1444 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 10:11 am

    ” Well it seems aged care facilities are now going to get my estranged parents’ assets rather than their preferred charities. I don’t know what to say.”

    Why not say: “I’ll be proud of my family’s contribution to the nation”.

    It is called progressive taxation. It is a feature of all of the countries on earth with the highest quality of life. Celebrate it.

  5. “It is probably not your parents assets the government is after, it is yours. This policy has been floated as if it is targeted at the “boomer” generation – the most privileged, entitled and richest generation Australia has ever seen – but I’d suggest waiting for more details. I expect it will end up being “phased in” or “staged” so as to barely impact the boomers at all (which, as Ven pointed out, is the generation that actually determines who governs Australia) but will fall with full force on succeeding generations.

    Sure, you can call me cynical. But wait and see.”

    Ironically, in the first generation poorer than their parents, I probably won’t have enough assets to worry about it.

  6. Opinion piece by Chanum Torres, president of the NSW Young Liberals.

    Shorter version: The Liberals need to con younger voters by pretending they will address housing affordability and climate action. Answer: push deregulation in the usual R-W manner.

    “notably in industrial relations to bring down the costs involved in mining critical minerals, green R&D and to open up employment opportunities to young people more broadly.” Also “Government should leave it to capital markets to decide whether nuclear, wind, solar, hydro or hydrogen is the path forward.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/jan/04/my-generation-sees-an-australia-in-decline-with-bold-housing-reform-and-sensible-climate-action-liberals-can-seize-the-agenda

  7. One of the problems over the holiday period is that politicians can say almost anything and false claims simply won’t be picked up. Sure enough…

    Catching up with some podcasts I missed over the holidays, I finally heard Liberal Defence Lie-speaker Andrew Hastie complain about the Albanese government’s very sensible decision not to send a warship to the Red Sea. On 21 December Andrew Hastie spoke to ABC PM and the illustrious Sky News.

    ABC PM Podcast
    https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/pm/debate-over-warship-deployment/102960066
    On Sky
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Caxzg1wvAY

    In both segments Hastie states that the Red Sea is vital to Australia’s national interest because “2/3 of Australia’s trade goes through the Red Sea”. This is simply a lie, but went unchallenged, and uncorrected by any Labor Defence spokesperson, who were presumably on holidays.

    Australia’s 2 way trade with the EU is about 9% of our total trade. most of the bulk ore and grain goes around the Cape (of Good Hope) so only around 5% of Australia’s trade goes through the Red Sea.
    https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/australias-goods-and-services-by-top-15-partners-2022.pdf

    Hastie then asks if the problem is a shortage of ships, as though that had nothing to do with the Morrison government.

    ABC Factcheck needs to be resurrected. Richard Marles needs to get an advisor who knows about stuff.

  8. ”Opinion piece by Chanum Torres, president of the NSW Young Liberals.”

    A mix of motherhood statements and unmitigated bullshit from Mr Torres.

  9. They squandered the goodwill they enjoyed when they defeated an unpopular LNP Government.

    @Nicholas

    Lets not rewrite history Labor won with a one seat majority and a primary vote of 32.58%. You make it sound like they had this massive amounts of political capital to begin with. The only reason the Liberals seem out of reach is via the Teals. The regions and Queensland are still blue wall to wall for the LNP despite Labor making inroads into some of the margins there.

  10. WeWantPaul says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 2:12 am
    “The difficulty I have with the application of the 14th amendment to disqualify Trump is that it requires him to be an insurrectionist. The principle that a person is innocent until found guilty …”

    This would have a lot more weight as an argument if a Court hadn’t determined as a matter of fact that Trump is an insurrectionist. That is a Court, holding a Court case determined that fact. It was so extraordinarily obvious it was a pretty dubious concept in the first place, a ‘don’t believe what you saw yourself until a Court tells you, that you were right’. Not all that strong an argument before a Court did that very thing. I don’t know how people missed this it was quite explicit.
    …………………………………………….

    The Colorado court found that Trump was an insurrectionist on the civil standard – balance of probabilities. That is not a finding “against the world”.
    It is presumably open for Trump to argue in another State that he was not an insurrectionist. Neither res judicata nor issue estoppel would apply since there are separate parties (being the separate States).

    Indeed, as I understand the Maine decision, that State reached its own decision relying on facts, not meekly following the Colorado decision. Further, if all States had to apply the Colorado decision, why is Trump still on the ballot in 48 States (pending the stay)?

    Should the second court accept Trump is not an insurrectionist what happens then? Is he or isn’t he?

    This is just one of the reasons why a criminal finding of insurrection should be made before invoking the 14th amendment.

    The other, main, reason is that a finding of guilt for any crime for any government purpose should be proof beyond reasonable doubt. As a great civil rights bludger I would not have thought you would require any convincing of that. Imagine if our political leaders, employing the apparatus of the state, could get rid of our political opponents by running civil cases against them.

  11. Aged care is already means tested. My parents had an investment property which had to be sold to pay the RAD of $550,000 for my mum.

    If dad goes into care, the family home has to be sold in order to pay his RAD

  12. Nicholas says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 7:12 am
    An early election is hors du question for the Labor federal government. They know how unpopular they’ve made themselves with their gormless idiocy on both economic policy and foreign affairs. They squandered the goodwill they enjoyed when they defeated an unpopular LNP Government. Unless they suddenly develop wise political instincts over the next 12 months they run a significant risk of losing to an LNP that should be unelectable.

    Dream on, Nicholas, dream on. The data suggests quite strongly that nothing much has changed public opinion-wise since the last election. The reactionaries, your chums, will likely make no gains. They could lose a seat or three in Queensland. Who will defeat Labor? The Cross-bench? The Reactionaries? Bob Katter? Come the election, the matter will be, as usual, who to trust? Has the electorate lost trust in Labor? Not so far. You hate Labor both doctrinally and reflexively. The rest of us are not so sour.

    For mine own, I wish Australia would do some things differently. But this will never happen if the Reactionaries win. In an era when the loonies are trying to break down all the doors, I think it pays to defend ourselves against them….against the theologians and the ideologues, the psychopaths and the tyrants.

  13. For those interested in dodgy polling look at this by a Hindu Nationalistic UK group. If i’m reading their website right they sent between 1 to 3 million questioners (probably with leading questions) to people who had listed themselves as being either Hindu or Indian on UK census. Of which they got 2061 to respond and they claim that the response is thus highly accurate.

    Note: “probably with leading questions” i don’t know the questions. You can get them from the site if you give your email address it seems. For obvious reasons i don’t wish to give my email address to an organisation that could have links to another organisation that is known to employ hitmen in western countries.

    “INSIGHT UK is an organisation that aims to address the concerns of the British Hindu and British Indian (BHI) communities.

    From November 2022 to February 2023, a survey was conducted asking Hindus and Indians living in the United Kingdom about what they thought of the British media. We asked how they felt they were being represented and whether they felt they were being covered accurately and depicted fairly.

    The 2021 census recorded 1.03 million Hindus and 1.86 million Indians in England and Wales alone. To get a truly accurate reflection of this BHI population, the survey required a minimum of 385 participants to ensure a high level of confidence and a low margin of error. The response far exceeded expectations with 2,061 respondents and strong representation across all regions of the United Kingdom.”

    https://insightuk.org/british-media-and-perception

  14. Victoria

    I know everybody’s circumstances are different but being able to quickly sell the family home when my mother needed to move to aged care in 2022 was a relief.
    We probably could have made other arrangements and kept the house as an investment. Given Perth’s property market it’s probably worth a few percentage points more today.
    There were already issues with garden maintenance and neither my sister nor I had any desire to be a landlord.
    Some people have a sentimental attachment but I left home 50 something years ago.
    Perhaps more importantly my mother had no ambition to return home.
    She’s still pretty sensible at 99 and her wish was that life be as uncomplicated as it can be for her son and daughter in relation to her care.
    All I can hope for other people is that in the same circumstances things can be sorted quickly and smoothly.

  15. David Muir is on a hiding to nothing. The Albanese Government is extremely unlikely to advance any further constitutional reform after the Voice referendum burnt so much political capital. But you cannot blame him for trying.

    @Griff

    Yep. The financial cost of the referendum is also being weaponised by the Newscorp and the Labor baggers like a painted target on Labor’s back. I can’t see Labor looking for any more anymore constitutional reform particularly when Liberal oppositions see the political opportunism by wrecking it.

    David Muir’s article doesn’t really provide any solutions either. The suggestion of ‘non-partisan’ committees and assemblies to look into the republic referendum doesn’t mean crap. If you have one side that will wreck and undermine the process from the beginning. Just look at Dutton’s bagging the Albanese government’s Jobs and Skills Summit. The difference is the summit didn’t have to go to a vote by the Australian public via a referendum.

  16. >Griff says:
    >Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:59 am

    >But are we are comparing like for like? This graph from the US looks like generational wealth is >broadly tracking similarly, accounting for age:

    >https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2022/12/21/the-wealth-of-generations-latest-update/

    How do you define ‘Like for Life’ for example if a home is 50,000 for boomers at 33, $100,000 for Gen X at age 33 and $200,000 for Millenials at age 33 is it the same?

  17. Boerwar and Ven
    Thanks for your feed back on that article…I take your points and will look into the authors work more closely. Good to be retired and have the time.

  18. On Nath/Lars’ use of ‘stooge’ around here: we do all realise that no matter what any of us says on any topic, they can make that word apply to us, perfectly validly. One becomes a ‘stooge’ not through one’s own faults or failings, but through the comic genius of the mocker. And really, none of us has any control over either anyone else’s mastery of cutting hilarity, or against whom they will choose to display it.

  19. Article in SMH says wealthy aged care residents will be asked to pay more. When mum entered aged care in 2003 she was deemed a wealthy resident paying 3 times more than an aged pensioner would for exactly the SAME shitty care

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wealthy-boomers-to-be-asked-to-pay-more-for-aged-care-20240103-p5euwh.html

    Private operator Arcare, owned by Melbourne Socialite Knowles family has been charging residents for services not delivered
    https://michaelwest.com.au/aged-care-complaints-arcare-acqsc/

  20. TPOF says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:35 am
    MelbourneMammoth says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:11 am
    Well it seems aged care facilities are now going to get my estranged parents’ assets rather than their preferred charities. I don’t know what to say.

    _____________________________________________

    It will most likely be the Government that will benefit, rather than aged care facilities – depends on whether they are privately run or public. In either case, the idea is sound to relieve the prospective burden on taxpayers slightly. Speaking as a boomer with some assets.

    —————
    After election to government in 1996 Howard opened Aged Care ( and other services ) to be run by businesses, and gave them generous funding with no accountability as to how it was spent.
    Some are listed on the ASX, always pay a dividend. Same for some Childcare facilities.
    The Daily Telegraph, over the last 5 years at least, has noted the wealth of the owners of some aged care ( and Childcare ) facilities – live in mansions, own luxury yachts, cars, expensive holidays,….
    A friend’s brother told her ‘ if you want to make a lot of money buy an aged care facility’. He has.
    Howard’s plan would have been for the Liberal Party to receive donations from these businesses as a ‘thank you’. And businesses oblige. To run a well funded election campaign. Big money spent wins votes and elections.
    Labor likes this idea too. Had to continue this model, too bad if for some consumers the service they receive is poor. Such as business run job providers.
    The NDIS, with providers rorting, receive often more than 3X a service than if the NDIS wasn’t involved is one of the main reasons why it is more expensive than Medicare. And a growing drain on taxpayer funds under this business providing services model.
    Greens SA Senator Barbara Pocock was shocked at the wastage in the NDIS. In a Michael West report at the end of 2022.
    A relative commented on a $900chair provided for someone in need they believed could have been bought for less than $100.
    I believe anyone who has some connection with the NDIS knows how expensive it is, compared to non NDIS purchases.

    I also remember, it would have been during the Howard government that a certain Private school invested some funds on the ASX – the religious and independent private schools too receive many $billions annually via the Federal government.

  21. Warning to Irans proxy last night from Aust /alliance.Its really directed to the warship that is on holiday from Iran.I hope the sailors have got scuba gear handy as that ship will be at the bottom of the red sea if Iran actually shows fight instead of its usual cowardice.

  22. On aged care: what happens when a society achieves hefty increases in life expectancy, but fails to achieve proportional increases in the willingness of the rest of us to support the consequent extra numbers of the elderly, whether privately or publicly, individually or collectively?

  23. Wheelchairs from Aldi cost $140
    A custom made wheelchair for a quadriplegic costs as much as a small car

    NDIS appliance costs will be high if they are custom made by skilled technicians using expensive components

    BUT cleaning & shopping services obtained through NDIS should be normal market rates

    Like Aged Care the NDIS needs to be policed by a body that can act quickly and impose heavy punishment on wrong doers. Both sectors will be rorted until private providers are policed or eliminated

  24. Player One says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 11:28 am
    How ironic to see Nicholas described as a “reactionary” by someone who is clearly a …

    Like you, Nicholas chops wood for the Reactionaries. He sharpens his ax for the job. Unlike you, he’s not thoroughly disingenuous.

  25. One of the best run aged care centres is a large state run facility in Shepparton, it’s a major employer in the district

    The state aged care of last resort in Geelong is Grace McKeller, spoken of with dread because of its old cream brick buildings but its inmates participate in swimming and occupational therapy rather than being propped in front TV in the Salvos home

  26. Stooge @ #1476 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 12:21 pm

    Player One says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 11:28 am
    How ironic to see Nicholas described as a “reactionary” by someone who is clearly a …

    Like you, Nicholas chops wood for the Reactionaries. He sharpens his ax for the job. Unlike you, he’s not thoroughly disingenuous.

    How ironic to be called “disingenuous” by someone who is clearly … 🙂

  27. Catprog says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 11:47 am
    >Griff says:
    >Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 10:59 am

    >But are we are comparing like for like? This graph from the US looks like generational wealth is >broadly tracking similarly, accounting for age:

    >https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2022/12/21/the-wealth-of-generations-latest-update/

    How do you define ‘Like for Life’ for example if a home is 50,000 for boomers at 33, $100,000 for Gen X at age 33 and $200,000 for Millenials at age 33 is it the same?

    ——————

    Inflation adjusted as stated at the top of the graph.

  28. Post
    See new posts
    Conversation
    AHMED | أحمد
    @ASE
    BREAKING: Today’s Jeffrey Epstein’s list includes Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Glenn Dubin, and Jean Luc Brunel.

    166 other names were also unsealed.

    DISCLAIMER: Not all names released are necessarily part of #Epstein’s crimes.

    “Teenager recruited by pedophile Jeffrey Epstein reveals how she met Bill Clinton twice”

    #BillClinton – John Doe #36 – whose deposition was essential to provide info on his relationship with Maxwell and Epstein.

    Testimony from one witness:

    Q: “Did Jeffrey ever talk to you about Bill Clinton?”

    A: “He said one time that Clinton likes them young, referring to girls.”

    Among the list of associates named are Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Donald Trump and Steven Hawking. Most names revealed in the court documents have already been made public.

  29. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 12:24 pm
    List of names related to Jeffrey Epstein case released

    Trying to fond the names to upload here.Anyone have them?

    ——————————————————————————–

    You seem unusually interested in this case. Though if my avatar was known for wearing something like a dress while abducting groups of children for unknown nefarious reasons. I might be worried too. Though i don’t think you need worry as Epstein does not appear to have held any events in Hamelin.

  30. Briefly is not disingenuous, and on global economics and trade he is clear eyed and very knowledgeable. However a streak of party fanaticism causes him to see Nicholas’ rather innocuous comment as ‘chopping wood for reactionaries’.

  31. Player One says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 12:26 pm
    Stooge @ #1476 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 12:21 pm

    Player One says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 11:28 am
    How ironic to see Nicholas described as a “reactionary” by someone who is clearly a …

    Like you, Nicholas chops wood for the Reactionaries. He sharpens his ax for the job. Unlike you, he’s not thoroughly disingenuous.
    How ironic to be called “disingenuous” by someone who is clearly …

    How predictable to be baited with a cliche by one who phishes all day long.

  32. nath says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 12:34 pm
    Briefly is not disingenuous, and on global economics and trade he is clear eyed and very knowledgeable. …

    I’m much obliged…and I use the nym advisedly. 🙂

  33. There was no real difference between the Nicholas spray this am and the routine Fox After Dark sprays.
    Both hate Labor with a passion.

  34. S.V. Dáte @svdate

    NEW — If Trump’s “absolute immunity” is correct, that means Biden could have him abducted from Mar-a-Lago, spirited off to St. Helena, and secretly kept there forever without ever having to worry about criminal charges.

  35. Q: A “Saxe-Coburg-Gotha” by any other name would smell as sweet?.

    A: Turns out they smell much better as “Windsor”

    Problem: Andrew has begun to emanate one huge stench that is starting to make “Windsor” smell nearly as bad as “Saxe-Coburg-Gotha”.

    Solution: Remove the right for Andrew to use the surname “Windsor” and make him revert to their old surname “Saxe-Coburg-Gotha”.

  36. Lets not rewrite history Labor won with a one seat majority and a primary vote of 32.58%. You make it sound like they had this massive amounts of political capital to begin with.

    A problem with Labor politicians is their inveterate inability to adjust to new circumstances. They inhabit a bubble, a centrist bubble populated by journalists and politicians, and they don’t realize that what makes sense within that bubble does not make sense beyond it. They have the power to make themselves popular and do a huge amount of good but they choose not to do it. Their boasting about fiscal surpluses shows how out of touch they are with the realities of economic policy and how it affects people’s lives. The LNP shouldn’t be a contender for government in 2025 but Labor is gifting them a real chance of winning.

  37. nath @ #1484 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 12:34 pm

    Briefly is not disingenuous, and on global economics and trade he is clear eyed and very knowledgeable. However a streak of party fanaticism causes him to see Nicholas’ rather innocuous comment as ‘chopping wood for reactionaries’.

    Actually, since he acknowledges himself to be a “stooge”, I guess I have to admit he is not as disingenuous as some others here are.

  38. Nicholas
    The LNP shouldn’t be a contender for government in 2025 but Labor is gifting them a real chance of winning.
    ———————
    I will predict it now the Liberals wont win in 2025 because there is no evidence in the polling that the government is close to losing 18 seats.

    The Liberals could win by picking up all of the teal seats + Indi and Mayo then pick up Higgins Dunkley Chisholm Tangney Boothby Reid Ryan Brisbane and Lyons but that is a tall order without a recession or the government blowing itself up like Howard nearly did in 1998.

  39. Nicholassays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 12:44 pm
    Lets not rewrite history Labor won with a one seat majority and a primary vote of 32.58%. You make it sound like they had this massive amounts of political capital to begin with.

    A problem with Labor politicians is their inveterate inability to adjust to new circumstances. They inhabit a bubble, a centrist bubble populated by journalists and politicians, and they don’t realize that what makes sense within that bubble does not make sense beyond it. They have the power to make themselves popular and do a huge amount of good but they choose not to do it. Their boasting about fiscal surpluses shows how out of touch they are with the realities of economic policy and how it affects people’s lives. The LNP shouldn’t be a contender for government in 2025 but Labor is gifting them a real chance of winning.

    ———————————————————————–

    So in your opinion Labor’s failure to adjust to current “new circumstances”. Means people will vote to bring back the 1950’s instead?.

    Quote: “And then a step to the right – – – – – =, Let’s do the Time Warp again”

  40. Entropy: “Solution: Remove the right for Andrew to use the surname “Windsor” and make him revert to their old surname “Saxe-Coburg-Gotha”.”

    Back to ‘Battenberg’ would be easier.

    In fact, it would be a piece of cake …

  41. Epstein offered to reward Giuffre’s friends and family for proving allegations were false
    In an email to Ghislaine Maxwell, Jeffery Epstein said she could reward any of Virginia Giuffre’s friends and family who come forward to prove her allegations are false.

    Particularly, Epstein said the strongest was the Clinton Dinner and an underage orgy that Stephen Hawking participated in.

  42. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:09 pm
    Entropy: “Solution: Remove the right for Andrew to use the surname “Windsor” and make him revert to their old surname “Saxe-Coburg-Gotha”.”

    Back to ‘Battenberg’ would be easier.

    In fact, it would be a piece of cake …

    —————————————————————

    Would you eat a “Prince Andrew Battenberg Cake”?. I suspect it very unpalatable. Though, unlike most cakes, want sweat due to temperature changes while storing.

  43. The thing about the Epstein is that, from what I understand, he targeted 16 and 17 year old girls. Why would you risk everything doing that when you could fill an island with 18 year olds with non disclosure agreements and you wouldn’t have anything to worry about?

  44. WARNING – extreme violence :

    Law&Crime Network @LawCrimeNetwork

    VIDEO: Judge Mary Kay Holthus was attacked inside her own courtroom Wednesday during a sentencing hearing.

    Deobra Redden was set to be sentenced for an attempted battery charge, but instead, he jumped over the bench screaming, “f*ck that, b*tch!”

    According to local reports, Judge Holthus was taken to the hospital for examination and is expected to be okay.

    https://twitter.com/LawCrimeNetwork/status/1742686749204090900

  45. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:05 pm
    Nicholas disturbing the hivemind again with predictable consequences

    ———————————————————————

    We are just lucky you are immune to influence of the “hivemind” then. Any idea why that might be?.

    Quote: “No-mind is an evil place for mind to stay.” – City of Illusions

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