New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,460 comments on “New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)”

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  1. The thing about the Epstein is that, from what I understand, he targeted 16 and 17 year old girls. Why would you risk everything doing that when you could fill an island with 18 year olds with non disclosure agreements and you wouldn’t have anything to worry about?

    Its all about power and ego!No surprise alleged clients were all wealthy including a royal.

  2. Macarthur @ #1471 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 12:03 pm

    On Nath/Lars’ use of ‘stooge’ around here: we do all realise that no matter what any of us says on any topic, they can make that word apply to us, perfectly validly. One becomes a ‘stooge’ not through one’s own faults or failings, but through the comic genius of the mocker. And really, none of us has any control over either anyone else’s mastery of cutting hilarity, or against whom they will choose to display it.

    Yep, they’re just a couple of one trick ponies with not much imagination as it pertains to the English language at the end of the day.

  3. Entropy @ #1502 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 1:17 pm

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:05 pm
    Nicholas disturbing the hivemind again with predictable consequences

    ———————————————————————

    We are just lucky you are immune to influence of the “hivemind” then. Any idea why that might be?.

    Yep. Lars von Trier is a part of the Liberal Borg. When you have been assimilated by the Borg you are no longer able to see it either.

    *sigh* I guess that you who see Lars Von Trier’s witterings will have to put up with that sort of insubstantial jiggery pokery this year, as water carriers for the Liberals wage their little campaigns against Labor on social media thinking that they make a difference. 😐

  4. nath @ #1500 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 1:15 pm

    The thing about the Epstein is that, from what I understand, he targeted 16 and 17 year old girls. Why would you risk everything doing that when you could fill an island with 18 year olds with non disclosure agreements and you wouldn’t have anything to worry about?

    Surely that’s a rhetorical question, nath?

  5. MacArthur

    Turkey blocks passage of two British minehunter ships intended for Ukraine

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-britain-minehunter-ships-ukraine-b2472437.html

    Turkey has rejected Britain’s bid to send two minehunter ships to Kyiv via its waters, saying it will refuse passage to any military vessels linked to Russia or Ukraine for as long as the war continues.

    Britain had announced the transfer of two Royal Navy minehunter ships to the Ukrainian Navy in support of Ukraine’s Black Sea defences against the Russian invasion.

  6. Entropy @ #1495 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 1:01 pm

    Nicholassays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 12:44 pm
    Lets not rewrite history Labor won with a one seat majority and a primary vote of 32.58%. You make it sound like they had this massive amounts of political capital to begin with.

    A problem with Labor politicians is their inveterate inability to adjust to new circumstances. They inhabit a bubble, a centrist bubble populated by journalists and politicians, and they don’t realize that what makes sense within that bubble does not make sense beyond it. They have the power to make themselves popular and do a huge amount of good but they choose not to do it. Their boasting about fiscal surpluses shows how out of touch they are with the realities of economic policy and how it affects people’s lives. The LNP shouldn’t be a contender for government in 2025 but Labor is gifting them a real chance of winning.

    ———————————————————————–

    So in your opinion Labor’s failure to adjust to current “new circumstances”. Means people will vote to bring back the 1950’s instead?.

    Yes ! Yes ! Yes! I can see it now,our women barefoot and pregnant chained to the sinks we provided for them,raising our male children to be the arseholes of tomorrow.

  7. Australia draws in record number of asylum seekers – and the one city they’re all flocking to
    Labor reeling from release of convicted criminal asylum seekers
    Asylum claims have doubled Anthony Albanese came to power
    READ MORE: The far-flung nations 92 asylum seekers came to Australia from
    By PADRAIG COLLINS FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

    PUBLISHED: 13:30 AEDT, 4 January 2024 | UPDATED: 13:30 AEDT, 4 January 2024

    The number of asylum seekers arriving by plane has doubled since Anthony Albanese came to power with most new arrivals flocking to Sydney.

    In the four months from August to November, more than 2,000 asylum claims were made every month, which is a new record high – and most of them did not come from war-torn nations.

    When Mr Albanese replaced Scott Morrison as Prime Minister after the May 2022 federal election, there were around 1,000 applications per month.

    Federal Labor when in opposition always complained about fly in immigration/ illegals.

    Well look at the above.Its open borders !

  8. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:47 pm
    Entropy @ #1502 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 1:17 pm

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:05 pm

    We are just lucky you are immune to influence of the “hivemind” then. Any idea why that might be?.

    Yep. Lars von Trier is a part of the Liberal Borg. When you have been assimilated by the Borg you are no longer able to see it either.

    ————————————————————–

    “There is none so blind as he who will not see”

  9. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:58 pm
    Australia draws in record number of asylum seekers – and the one city they’re all flocking to

    ——————————————————————————

    Put curfews on the lot of them and lock them up when they break them says the “Cooker for Curfews”. Though i assume that only applies to those that exceed Dutton’s allowable melanin skin content test. Obviously au pairs would also be exempt too.

  10. The thing about the Epstein is that, from what I understand, he targeted 16 and 17 year old girls. Why would you risk everything doing that when you could fill an island with 18 year olds with non disclosure agreements and you wouldn’t have anything to worry about?

    Any physiological difference between 17 & 18 year old girls? None

    Were these powerful men were getting off on the thrill of the illegal?

  11. Lol, The Daily Fail. 😆

    Note that the article is open-ended with its data. The author does not say how many asylum seekers by plane from countries that are not war-torn, get turned around and shipped back to their home country again. I wonder why? Maybe because it doesn’t suit the Liberal Party attack line that is being faithfully scribed by the reporter?

  12. Rossmcg

    Just catching up with your comment at 11.30 am.

    I belief it will be a relief for us too, when we sell our parents home.

  13. Entropy @ #1513 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 2:06 pm

    pied pipersays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:58 pm
    Australia draws in record number of asylum seekers – and the one city they’re all flocking to

    ——————————————————————————

    Put curfews on the lot of them and lock them up when they break them says the “Cooker for Curfews”. Though i assume that only applies to those that exceed Dutton’s allowable melanin skin content test. Obviously au pairs would also be exempt too.

    And White South African Farmers. 😐

  14. Grimesays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:56 pm
    Entropy @ #1495 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 1:01 pm
    The LNP shouldn’t be a contender for government in 2025 but Labor is gifting them a real chance of winning.

    ———————————————————————–

    So in your opinion Labor’s failure to adjust to current “new circumstances”. Means people will vote to bring back the 1950’s instead?.
    —————————————————-
    Yes ! Yes ! Yes! I can see it now,our women barefoot and pregnant chained to the sinks we provided for them,raising our male children to be the arseholes of tomorrow.

    ————————————————————-

    I would say the Young Liberal organisation has delivered their quota of those early then.

  15. “Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the West a Russian enemy, and suggested that Russia is fighting in Ukraine to defeat the West.”
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/3/7435618/

    If this was true Russia would have already lost. The west really needs to up its military support for Ukraine. The west is very lucky to have Ukraine fighting this war for them. The least we can do is fully support them doing it. With the tanks, planes and ammunition to complete the task. If Ukraine fails Russia want stop there. Putin at the very least wants to retake back all the the territory of the previous USSR and has stated that often. If Ukraine was to fall, NATO would find itself committing personnel to stop Russia’s imperialistic ambitions. Currently Ukraine is making that supreme sacrifice for all of Europe. So at the very least lets give them everything they need so their sacrifice is not in vain.

  16. They think they’ve located the wreckage of MH370! And it’s in South Australian waters!!

    A former naval officer involved in the initial hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has called for an investigation into an Australian fisherman’s claims he found a large piece of a commercial plane at sea.

    Retired Australian fisherman Kit Olver last month said that in October 2014 – just seven months after the plane disappeared – his deep-sea trawler pulled up what appeared to be the wing of an airliner about 55 kilometres west of the South Australian town of Robe.

    Waring said Olver’s claim fit with some theories about where the fuselage could be.

    “Even at the time of the search, we had conversations about it, and we were certainly not closed off to the possibility of things washing up in Australia,” Waring said.

    “And if did in wash up somewhere in Australia, it was more likely to be in Tasmania, or if it circled back around, somewhere off South Australia.”

    “Something as big as a wing would have had a distinctly different drift pattern to smaller bits of debris,” he said.

    Waring said it was not unreasonable that parts of the wreckage could have floated east due to strong weather systems that blew through after the crash.

    He now believes that the crash site was further south than the main search zone, in a remote area known as Geelvinck Fracture Zone.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/fisherman-s-plausible-wing-find-triggers-new-push-to-solve-mh370-mystery-20240103-p5euw1.html

    Watch out South Australia, Toned Abs is probably on his way. 😆

  17. A multi-month surge in iron ore prices is poised to deliver Treasurer Jim Chalmers as much as $18 billion in extra tax revenue, bolstering the prospect of a second surplus and funding another round of subsidies for voters.
    Iron ore has rallied to $US145 per tonne, its highest price since April 2022, as optimism builds that China’s economic recovery is gaining momentum thanks to a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus. The price surge is a boon to the federal government, which is reliant on sales of the commodity as a major source of tax revenue.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/iron-ore-price-surge-delivers-labor-an-18b-tax-windfall-20240104-p5ev3a

  18. Ven @ Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:56 pm:

    “MacArthur

    Turkey blocks passage of two British minehunter ships intended for Ukraine”
    ============

    Ven, yes, I saw that. Mine hunters are inherently defensive naval assets, not offensive. They could only be a threat to those who agree Russia ought to be allowed to lay mines across sea trade routes at will. Further, the Montreaux Convention only permits Turkey to block vessels of ‘belligerents’. Is Ankara asserting that the UK is at war with any country on the Black Sea? Erdogan has some explaining to do in my opinion.

  19. pied piper says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 1:58 pm
    Australia draws in record number of asylum seekers – and the one city they’re all flocking to
    Labor reeling from release of convicted criminal asylum seekers
    Asylum claims have doubled Anthony Albanese came to power
    READ MORE: The far-flung nations 92 asylum seekers came to Australia from
    By PADRAIG COLLINS FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

    PUBLISHED: 13:30 AEDT, 4 January 2024 | UPDATED: 13:30 AEDT, 4 January 2024
    ———————-
    This propaganda has not work for the lib/nats propaganda media units for about 4 months now

    No wonder Labor is likely to increase its majority
    Voters are interested in domestic issues , the federal lib/nats and their propaganda media units , trying to out do the Victorian lib/nats counterparts see who is going to remain in opposition the longest , which is great

  20. Maverick Tasmanian MP John Tucker has threatened to “bring the government down” if it does not support his demands for mandatory CCTV in abattoirs and a cessation of AFL projects until the Macquarie Point stadium passes parliament.
    In a press conference this morning, the independent member for Lyons set out his grievances over the government’s recent handling of animal cruelty allegations and decision to build a $70 million AFL high-performance training centre.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-04/john-tucker-threatens-tas-gov-if-it-doesnt-install-abattoir-cctv/103284030

  21. Some objectively good things that are not intrinsically linked to the 1950s:

    Making it easy for everyone who wants a paid job to get a paid job with decent pay and conditions

    Treating safe and comfortable housing as a human right and making it realistic for everyone who wants to own a home to do so

    Lifting all income support payments above the Henderson Report poverty line of $630 per week for a single person ($1260 per fortnight), applied to the Age Pension, the Disability Support Pension, and payments for job-seekers, students, carers, parents, and the sick or injured

    Making all education free, from early childhood to university, and cancelling all outstanding student debt

    Making all health care free regardless of whether it’s in a hospital or a clinic, primary care or secondary care, dental or medical, allied health or nursing, medications or medical devices

    Making public transport convenient, comfortable, and free

    Making it convenient and safe to walk and cycle

    Providing ample parks and facilities for relaxation, recreation, and community sport

    Investing heavily in scientific discovery and technical progress and making the resulting knowledge and productivity gains equally available to all

    Lifting income support payments could be done quickly – literally overnight, as could the eradication of out-of-pocket fees for medications, medical devices, TAFE, and university, and the cancellation of outstanding student debts. The other stuff would take longer to roll out, with a federally funded, locally administered Job Guarantee being something that could be up and running within one or two years. In the meantime the federal government could undo the outsourcing and degradation of public sector expertise by expanding mainstream public sector employment, and it could ramp up scientific and technical progress by increasing funding for the CSIRO and the universities. It could de-corporatise the universities by slashing the bloated ranks of senior executives, creating many more permanent research and teaching positions, ending the exploitation of casual academics, boosting core funding for universities while also offering competition or outcome-based funding, ending the cartel of for-profit academic journals, making all publicly funded research available to everyone for free.

    This stuff is not only in the public interest – it would also be immensely popular. People like it when governments help them. They hate it when governments sit on their hands. People want governments to fight ardently for them. They hate it when governments give up without a fight. People deserve politicians who focus entirely on the people’s interests. They don’t deserve politicians who focus more on the sinecures to come, on the exalted status of consultant, lobbyist, executive, board member, or whatever swamp creature they become in the next life.

    Doing the right thing is popular when it involves improving people’s living standards, stability, security, social connectedness, and hope for the future, not in a tokenistic way but to a degree that people recognize as fair. That ought to be the least controversial statement of all time but Labor doesn’t believe it, otherwise they wouldn’t be bungling their message on economic policy.

  22. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 3:13 pm
    A multi-month surge in iron ore prices is poised to deliver Treasurer Jim Chalmers as much as $18 billion in extra tax revenue, bolstering the prospect of a second surplus and funding another round of subsidies for voters.
    Iron ore has rallied to $US145 per tonne, its highest price since April 2022,

    ————————————————————————-

    Still well below $229.50 USD in May of 2021 under the Morrison Government though.

  23. Nicholas @ #1527 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 3:17 pm

    Doing the right thing is popular when it involves improving people’s living standards, stability, security, social connectedness, and hope for the future, not in a tokenistic way but to a degree that people recognize as fair. That ought to be the least controversial statement of all time but Labor doesn’t believe it, otherwise they wouldn’t be bungling their message on economic policy.

    The records stuck click The records stuck click The records stuck click The records stuck click

  24. Grime @ #1530 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 3:27 pm

    Nicholas @ #1527 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 3:17 pm

    Doing the right thing is popular when it involves improving people’s living standards, stability, security, social connectedness, and hope for the future, not in a tokenistic way but to a degree that people recognize as fair. That ought to be the least controversial statement of all time but Labor doesn’t believe it, otherwise they wouldn’t be bungling their message on economic policy.

    The records stuck click The records stuck click The records stuck click The records stuck click

    And says the guy who still lives at home with his parents and doesn’t know how the real world works outside his economics textbooks and You Tube.

  25. The current model of funding for private aged care is unsustainable. I’m surprised more haven’t gone into administration, let alone bankruptcy, yet given the impacts of COVID, recent regulatory changes including the 24 hour nurse requirement and the massive wages increase.

    Users who have the capacity need to pay for both the capital costs and the operating costs. The idea that the family home should be treated as a sacrosanct asset to be passed on to beneficiaries of wills needs to be quashed.

    Good luck to the current Minister trying to reform the contribution system. I hope they look at financially innovative solutions such as linked reverse mortgages and other options to make contributions more palatable.

    The fact remains that most people die in their own home but for those who care is appropriate it is an absolute must that it is accessible, good quality and sustainable.

    My strong advice to anyone looking at going into aged care (more likely it is their adult children assisting in the process) – pay a Financial Planner who specialises in Aged Care advice the few thousand dollars to get the best option for your circumstances. They are hard to find. It is a complex system and the decision on whether to keep or sell the home, how much to contribute for a Refundable Accommodation Deposit and how much Daily Accommodation Payment to make are complex calculations. The return on investment in good advice can be significant.

  26. and the massive wages increase.

    Which put them on a par with Disability Care Workers, and who both do some of the messiest, most physically-taxing jobs around.

    Get back to me FUBAR when you’ve walked a mile in their shoes and then try to tell us that the wage increase for Aged Care Workers wasn’t 100% justified.

  27. Macarthursays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 3:19 pm
    Entropy @ Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 2:42 pm:

    “… The west really needs to up its military support for Ukraine. The west is very lucky to have Ukraine fighting this war for them. The least we can do is fully support them doing it. With the tanks, planes and ammunition to complete the task. If Ukraine fails Russia want stop there. Putin at the very least wants to retake back all the the territory of the previous USSR and has stated that often. If Ukraine was to fall, NATO would find itself committing personnel to stop Russia’s imperialistic ambitions. Currently Ukraine is making that supreme sacrifice for all of Europe. So at the very least let’s give them everything they need so their sacrifice is not in vain.”
    ===============

    Entropy, thank you for this comment. I agree with it completely.

    ———————————————————————

    While Australia should give Ukraine more Bushmasters and also Hawkei. We should give the stuff we aren’t even using such as F18s and Taipan. Some people argue they are not safe. They are certainly safer than some of the USSR sourced stuff they have. I’m happy to let Ukraine be the judge of what they believe is safe to use or not. The argument particularly over Taipan’s, is bit like a father saying i want give my son my old 2010 Coralla because it doesn’t have latest airbag system. Instead he should keep driving his P76.

  28. Macarthur

    Turkey’s position hasn’t changed on warships not transiting through Turkey since the Russian attack on Ukraine almost 2 years ago. Minesweepers are warships. They can carry out offensive tasks suck as clearing lanes to allow transit of other vessels to carry out attacks.

    I don’t agree with Turkey’s position but it doesn’t need explaining. They have been consistent from the start.

  29. Entropy says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 2:42 pm
    “Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the West a Russian enemy, and suggested that Russia is fighting in Ukraine to defeat the West.”
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/3/7435618/

    If this was true Russia would have already lost. The west really needs to up its military support for Ukraine. The west is very lucky to have Ukraine fighting this war for them. The least we can do is fully support them doing it. With the tanks, planes and ammunition to complete the task. If Ukraine fails Russia want stop there. Putin at the very least wants to retake back all the the territory of the previous USSR and has stated that often. If Ukraine was to fall, NATO would find itself committing personnel to stop Russia’s imperialistic ambitions. Currently Ukraine is making that supreme sacrifice for all of Europe. So at the very least lets give them everything they need so their sacrifice is not in vain.
    __________________________________________________________
    You are right Entropy. The apathy and lack of sympathy among so many in the West for Ukraine is eerily reminiscent of the appeasement of Nazism in the 1930s. It also reminds me of how, during the same period, Western democracies let fascist forces crush the Spanish republic in the Spanish Civil War.
    All of it led to World War II.
    One problem is the way Western institutions themselves work. The European Union can only act if all member states agree; giving a veto to members, such as Hungary, which has blocked aid to Ukraine because it is content to play up to Russia.
    The US Congress also presents a bad case of how rightwing politicians are able to stop much-needed military aid to Ukraine. President Biden needs the Republican Party-controlled lower house to pass this aid, but it won’t because it doesn’t care if Ukraine burns, just so long as they can horse-trade aid in return for anti-refugee legislation.
    Continued American support will be even more in question if, fates forbid, Trump returns to the White House.
    Perhaps other strategies need to be considered, such as individual European states making their own separate contributions to the Ukraine cause. If Trump wins, could individual American states at least provide financial assistance to Ukraine? Would that be possible?
    It is a worry. I think Australia should do what it can; maybe build and supply more Bushmasters; allow Australian citizens to fight on Ukraine’s side. Anything.
    The cause of Ukraine is of a people fighting for their freedom. The world should back this just cause for that reason alone.
    A Ukrainian defeat will probably not result in World War III, but it would embolden Putin to go further, maybe target Georgia or the Baltic states next.
    We live in interesting times; I don’t like it.

  30. The Liberal and Greens attempts to start a culture war over something anything is getting tiresome.

    Hopefully the animal Australia day/invasion day bullshit is greated with a yawn.

  31. C@tmomma,

    I made no comment on the appropriateness or otherwise of the pay increase.

    Get back to me when your comprehension skills have improved.

    I have been involved directly and indirectly in Aged Care Facilities since I was a child through our family business. I worked in one as my first paid job as a teenager. The smell lives with me. Being confronted by aggressive patients in secure wards was a “growing up” experience. I have had grandparents and parents in them almost all my life. I have invested in private ones and had family on the boards of not for profit ones.

    But, you make sure you have a dig at me with you one eyed blinkered view of the world from your sad little existence because what would I know?

    Your continuous posting here is really very sad and very boring.

  32. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 3:30 pm
    The current model of funding for private aged care is unsustainable.

    ——————————————————————

    All goes back when to when a certain clueless Federal Government took over responsibility from states for this area. If you going to takeover something you really need some sort of plan. Yet their was no coherent plan at all in the Coalition’s Aged Care Act of 1997.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/20/the-new-aged-care-watchdog-is-like-shifting-the-deckchairs-on-the-titanic

    Quote: “Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity”

  33. C@t

    I have an aviation engineer in the family with 40 years experience.

    I have discussed MH370 at length with him. He explained how the systems work etc.
    Anyhoo. He stated that the plane in all likelihood was shot down at some point.
    This was to ensure it didn’t crash land on a major population area.

  34. Invasion Day is not a “yawn” to indigenous Ausralians.

    It’s sad that some are bored by the truth of our colonial history.

  35. Entropy

    Neither the F18s, the EuroTigers, nor our M1 Tanks are ours to give away to Ukraine. I think it’s a great idea but it needs the sign off from the issuers of the End User certification.

    I think we don’t own the F18s anymore.

  36. https://youtu.be/mScpHTIi-kM

    This is a thought-provoking feel-good video on cooperation strategies for a better life, by examining the Prisoner’s Dilemma. In an interaction between yourself and your opponent, should you “defect” or “cooperate”?

    Surprisingly, being “nice but not too nice” does better than being “nasty”. The lesson for political strategies is obvious. But I suspect things are more complicated. Some complexity was hinted at in closing. Perhaps time ran out.

    My thoughts: What if the two sides aren’t equal, as assumed by the game? What if one side can’t lose? Also, in the “real world” players can use the same move to play more than one game simultaneously. “Defecting” in one interaction in order to “cooperate” in another.

    It’s complicated. But still worth thinking about.

  37. FUBAR

    Our family engaged the services of an aged care financial planner when my mum went into care. Subsequently they also advised us about my father’s situation.
    In the meantime, we decided to get a second opinion. The advice was the same.

  38. FUBAR @ Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 3:41 pm:

    “Macarthur

    Turkey’s position hasn’t changed on warships not transiting through Turkey since the Russian attack on Ukraine almost 2 years ago. Minesweepers are warships. They can carry out offensive tasks suck as clearing lanes to allow transit of other vessels to carry out attacks.

    I don’t agree with Turkey’s position but it doesn’t need explaining. They have been consistent from the start.”
    ==============•

    FUBAR, I’m glad we’re in agreement over the wrongness of Turkey’s blocking of these two defensive warships from the UK. But you are incorrect about the Montreaux Convention that Turkey is purporting to rely upon in so doing:

    “In wartime, if Turkey is not involved in the conflict, warships of the nations at war may not pass through the Straits, except when returning to their base.”

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits

    These two minehunters are UK vessels, and the UK is NOT a ‘nation at war’ with Russia, or with any other nation on Earth for that matter. Therefore, Erdogan needs to explain the grounds on which he is blocking the passage of those two vessels into the Black Sea.

  39. For suggesting that Cameron Green could be the new Shane Watson at the top of the order, and whining a lot, Michael Vaughan’s working visa should be cancelled and he should be put in immigration detention.

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