New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,460 comments on “New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)”

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  1. Catching up with comments Albo made earlier today about the desirability of fixed four year terms for Federal parliament. It would be a very sensible reform, enabling the possibility of better government when the Liberals are not in power. Most other OECD nations already do this or similar.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/anthony-albanese-four-year-election-terms-australia?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    I know it won’t happen without bipartisan support, but this has a much better chance of getting up than a republic IMO. Fixed terms does not favor the incumbent, so its a fair proposal.

  2. I can’t believe I am saying this but FUBAR made reasonable explanations regarding Aged care (@3:30 pm) and minesweepers (@3:41pm) IMO.
    As we can see everything is not as black and white as some would like to portray.
    There are many complexities governments have to wade through to make those decisions.
    I guess in the end, governments need to make decisions which benefit their people and help others when they don’t impact them adversely.
    For example, there is no win-win for Australia regarding Israel – Hamas. West and especially Australia, US and UK are built on ‘Judeo-Christian ethos ‘. So they have to side with Israel based on that but based as per UN Human rights charter they have to help Palestinians which they can’t because Israel won’t stop any time soon.
    Although I can’t prove with any data or study, human nature being what it is, one of the reasons ALP PV is low because of current Australian position regarding ME. Both sides of the equation find it ‘duplicitous’, whether other people consider reasonable or not.
    While relating to PB, Whereas nath understands that situation and is tongue tied regarding Israel-Hamas war, Lars considers it as duplicitous.

  3. Dutton knows that the misdirection of the WMD papers by PM&C under Morrison was no accident. Hence his need to try and downplay its significance.

    Dutton, who appeared on 2GB on Thursday, agreed the papers should be released but took aim at Albanese for focusing on the transparency issue while Australians struggled with rising costs, describing it as “a little bizarre”.

    “He’s obsessing about trying to get square with John Howard over the release of these cabinet papers – which is a beltway issue: the papers should be released, but that’s an issue for the bureaucrats to work out,” he said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/04/iraq-war-cabinet-papers-release-peter-dutton-support-morrison-government

  4. On cricket, I agree that both Cameron Green and Mitch March are quality players adn should be in the team.

    AE said that Marsh was in good form. That is true but I think it is more than that. The “good form” has been rolling for over two years. I would say he has matured as a person and a batsman, and makes better decisions now.

    Marsh is 32 and probably only has 2-3 years left at the top level. But he currently is averaging higher than Bancroft or Renshaw, so why not pick him? You get at least as good a batsman plus a good backup bowler plus pretty good fielder.

  5. Mine hunters and mine sweepers can be both defensive (keeping ports and shipping channels clear) and offensive (clearing minefields as an integral part of an armed invasion.)

    As it turns out ‘Forcing the Dardenelles’ in WW1 which failed and which, in turn, triggered the failed invasion of the Galibalu Pensinsula demonstrates this point convincingly.

    The truly piquant point here is that the mine-sweeping trawlers were crewed by civilians who refused to sweep mines while under fire. Had naval crews crewed the minesweepers the Galibalu slaughter might well have been avoided altogether. Yet another Churchill incompetent cock up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_operations_in_the_Dardanelles_campaign

    All that said I don’t believe the point in contention is whether minesweepers are defensive or offensive or both.

  6. Rex

    “I would like maximum 4yr terms, but with the flexibility to go early if the Govt wants to.”

    I disagree. That is what eliminates all the advantages in terms of predictability and cost for fewer elections. The only early election option should be via the GG and losing a vote of no confidence in the house.

    Plus, as soon as you give more power to the governor of the day while increasing their term, Dutton will oppose it. Without bipartisan support, it will die. I doubt Albo wants to be remembered for two unsuccessful referenda.

  7. I think FUBAR is correct about the Dardanelles, Turkish control and minesweepers being warships. Most minesweepers have the ability to lay mines as well as remove them, so they can be a threat.

    I was wondering if the UK minesweepers were small enough to sail up the Rhine or Elbe and link to the Danube via canals and then sail down to the Black Sea via Rumania? Ships up to 2000 tonnes have done this.

  8. goll

    “ just ignore the plight of a disenfranchised and now disadvantaged indigenous population”

    Well that’s outright bullshit as is the basis of the two following paragraphs.


  9. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 4:27 pm
    Macarthur

    I’m not disagreeing with you on that.

    I’m far more hawkish on Ukraine than any of you. Putin won’t go nuclear over Ukraine. NATO should have put a no fly zone over the whole of Ukraine from the get go and given them a week to pull out and then started an air campaign against all Russian targets inside Ukraine. And, even without that – we should be sending massive amounts of equipment and ammunition with no restrictions on use.

    I can’t believe I am agreeing with FUBAR on so many issues. Did I wake up on wrong side of the bed? 🙂
    I think me and AR were the first ones to argue for ‘ no fly zone’ based on the fact wherever US and UK were involved in a conflict, ‘nofly zone’ was put in place. People didn’t agree with that.

  10. Not knowing the current policy on Gaza posts I post this not as a comment on Palestine but as a comment of the fucking idiot ignorant commentators in American Public life… none bigger than Bill Maher ..

    New Rule: From the River to the Sea | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO).

    https://youtu.be/KP-CRXROorw

    Almost impossible to watch till the end

  11. @rex, inter alia,

    In hindsight it would seem our forefathers made a couple of mistakes when they set up our constitution; 3 year terms and the referenda double
    Majority among them.

    Sadly the political immaturity of the current liberal party means any actual change on any issue of import is all but impossible.

    It is a big issue for our country in the future as we are now all but incapable of consequential reform.

    The key example is gun control. Had the alp been in power and proposed the 1996 reforms, the libs would have opposed it for political gain. They think division works for them. In fact it damns us all.

    See climate inaction.

    The housewives of Australia still think about the abolition of the carbon credit scheme while they iron for their troglodyte homophobe husbands to this day. And SMRs continue to not exist.

    The liberal party needs to be bombed back to the Stone Age before Australia will make any further sensible reforms at all.

    We are doomed as a species! Doomed by greed. At least the shareholders are maximizing their franking credits.

    (Please stop responding to FUBAR. I blocked him/her/they/it months ago. I only have to listen To their inane drivel when other PBers respond. Don’t feed trolls. )

    Happy invasion day everybody!

    AUKuS still stinks.

  12. FUBAR 7.24pm
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 7:24 pm
    goll

    “ just ignore the plight of a disenfranchised and now disadvantaged indigenous population”

    “Well that’s outright bullshit as is the basis of the two following paragraphs.”

    Thanks for exemplifying my point!


  13. Grimesays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 6:00 pm
    FUBAR @ #1570 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 5:16 pm

    “ If there is no treaty and no total genocide then there is no success for the Invasion. The Invasion continues. The resistance to the Invasion continues.”

    Australia is one of the most successful nations in the world. Any argument that the “invasion” wasn’t successful denies reality.

    Giving credence to fringe Aboriginal activists on sovereignty not being ceded is as stupid as giving any credence to the “sovereign citizens” idiots.

    The invasion was successful. They lost. Australia is a completely different nation today. Time to get on with reality. Stop the victimhood mentality. That doesn’t mean their culture is denied – people can live how they wish within the laws of the land. I encourage Aboriginal people to connect with their cultures and develop pride in it and develop their youth within it. There are massive benefits from having a sense of belonging. But accept the reality of where we are and where we are going.

    Interesting take on the subject of treaty, Invasion and smarmy gits in Wikipedia.
    Maybe that’s why many of us agree that the UK and it’s heirs and successors screwed over the First nations of the great Southern Land and still are.
    “John Batman (21 January 1801 – 6 May 1839) was an Australian grazier, entrepreneur and explorer. He is best known for his role in the founding of Melbourne.

    Born and raised in the then-British colony of New South Wales, Batman settled in Van Diemen’s Land (modern-day Tasmania) in the 1820s, where he rose to prominence for hunting bushrangers and leading massacres of Aboriginal people in the Black War.

    He later co-founded the Port Phillip Association and led an expedition which explored the Port Phillip area on the Australian mainland with the goal of establishing a new settlement. In 1835, Batman negotiated a treaty with Aboriginal people in Port Phillip by offering them tools, blankets and food in exchange for thousands of hectares of land. However, the treaty was declared void by the government and it has been disputed by Aboriginal descendants. This expedition ultimately resulted in the founding of Melbourne, eventual capital of Victoria and one of Australia’s largest and most important cities. Batman moved to the colony with his convict wife, Elizabeth Callaghan, and their seven daughters, settling on what is now known as Batman’s Hill. He died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38.

    Batman’s treaty stands as the only attempt by a European to engage Australian Aboriginal people in a treaty or transaction rather than simply claiming land outright. However, Batman’s motives and the validity of the treaty remain of great historical.

    So John Batman, who allegedly is ‘founder’ of ‘culturally superior’ Melbourne is
    1. Hunted bushrangers and leading massacres of Aboriginal people in the Black War.
    2. Died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38 implying that he was a ‘womaniser’ or atleast went to brothels a lot although he sired 7 ‘daughters’ with his wife.

    WOW! And he is considered a ‘civilised’ person. Mind boggling isn’t it?

  14. Ven @ Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 6:34 pm:

    “[me:] “Turkey blocks passage of two British minehunter ships intended for Ukraine”

    [Ven:] “And UK and Turkey are part of NATO. Weird isn’t it?””
    ======================

    There has long been some tension between Türkiye’s rights and obligations under the 1936 Montreux Convention and its rights and obligations under the NATO alliance since its accession in 1952. What is interesting in this latest bout is how Türkiye is treating the UK as a ‘belligerent Power’ for the purposes of invoking the following Article in the Convention:

    “ARTICLE 19
    In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Articles 10 to 18 [permissive conditions for peacetime passage].
    Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not, however, pass through the Straits [except for various redundant cases arising from obligations under the now-defunct League of Nations]”

    https://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1936-Convention-Regarding-the-Regime-of-the-Straits-1.pdf

    So, Türkiye is choosing to assert that the UK is a ‘belligerent Power’, otherwise it has no power under the Montreux Convention to deny those two UK minehunters passage through the Straits. Why Ankara is choosing to accept Moscow’s framing of this war as being one between Moscow and ‘the West/NATO’, and not Kyiv’s that this is a war between Moscow and Kyiv, betrays a pro-Moscow bias in their command and decision making hierarchy, in my opinion. This is, indeed, a ‘weird’ development in a country formally a member of NATO.

    I am firmly of the belief that Ukraine is already proving itself to be a much more staunch and loyal asset to NATO, through its strenuous efforts at repelling Russian imperialist revanchism, than many actual members of NATO: especially Hungary, Slovakia and Türkiye. I say kick at least Hungary out, and bring Ukraine in.

  15. Mabwm

    “Sadly the political immaturity of the current liberal party means any actual change on any issue of import is all but impossible.”

    ______________________________

    Well, Labor has a progressive majority in both houses which voters delivered, so progressive reform is very doable.

    The L/NP has a primary in the mid 30’s. That’s not a threatening number.

    Labor’s problem is it legitimizes Dutton and the L/NP by seeking bipartisanship. Dan Andrews never did that and the Vic voters took note. Fed Labor are their own worst enemy. If they want to be more progressive, have the guts to have some faith in voters.

  16. I consider nath and Rex (or Rex avatar) as avatars of ‘moderste liberals’ in ‘Ian Mcphee’ mould. Ian Mcphee is a Victorian liberal. Right there another reason for ‘moderate Victorian’ mould’. 🙂
    They vote 1 for Greens and depending upon their mood allocate the preferences to either Liberal, Teals or ALP.

  17. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 7:51 pm
    Mabwm

    “Sadly the political immaturity of the current liberal party means any actual change on any issue of import is all but impossible.”

    ______________________________

    Well, Labor has a progressive majority in both houses which voters delivered, so progressive reform is very doable.

    The L/NP has a primary in the mid 30’s. That’s not a threatening number.

    Labor’s problem is it legitimizes Dutton and the L/NP by seeking bipartisanship. Dan Andrews never did that and the Vic voters took note. Fed Labor are their own worst enemy. If they want to be more progressive, have the guts to have some faith in voters.

    ____________

    The Australian public that voted for Morrison in 2019? And voted most frequently for conservative governments since Federation? And just delivered a damming vote on the referendum on the Voice? And have never voted yes in a referendum without bipartisan support? Have faith in them?

    Sure 🙂

  18. Socrates @ Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 7:20 pm:

    “I think FUBAR is correct about the Dardanelles, Turkish control and minesweepers being warships. Most minesweepers have the ability to lay mines as well as remove them, so they can be a threat.

    I was wondering if the UK minesweepers were small enough to sail up the Rhine or Elbe and link to the Danube via canals and then sail down to the Black Sea via Rumania? Ships up to 2000 tonnes have done this.”
    ================

    Socrates, it is clear these two UK minesweepers are ‘warships’ for the purpose of the Montreaux Convention, which Türkiye must follow in policing maritime passage through the Straits. So, the relevant Articles of that Convention are in ‘Section 2: Vessels of War’, which is Articles 8-22. Within that Section, the key criteria are whether:
    1. it is peacetime (articles 10-18) or wartime (Articles 19-22). To clarify the application of this Convention to the Russo-Ukrainian War, on 27 February 2022 Türkiye legally recognised th e Russian invasion as a “war”.
    2. if wartime, whether Türkiye is belligerent (Article 20) or not (Article 19). To my knowledge, Türkiye has not joined this war as a belligerent on either side.
    3. if Article 19, whether the vessels at issue are from a belligerent power in the conflict or not. If not, Türkiye must treat it according to peacetime rules; if not, Türkiye must block their passage.

    So, Türkiye must have deemed the UK to be a ‘belligerent power’ if it is relying upon Article 19 of the Montreux Convention to block any UK warships from passing the Straits. If Türkiye regards the UK to be a ‘belligerent power’ merely by virtue of the UK being a NATO member state, then surely that means Türkiye should admit that it is also a ‘belligerent power’ in this war, since it too is a NATO member state.

    What is clear from this is that Türkiye’s position as both NATO member state and custodian of the Straits under the Montreux Convention is leading Ankara into an awkward conflict of interests. Its decisions over how to navigate this treacherous water will be quite revealing of its true loyalties.

  19. A top Indigenous group urged Labor to act quickly after the Voice referendum to counter Indigenous disadvantage while Australians remained focused on the issue, and pushed to mandate consultation with First Nations leaders.

    But nearly three months after Australians overwhelmingly voted No to the Voice, Labor has said little about its agenda to improve living standards among First Australians.

    Pat Turner, head of the coalition of peak Indigenous organisations, wrote to Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s department head days after the October 14 referendum.

    In her letter, she argued the benefits that would have been created by the Voice – embedding Indigenous advice in decision-making – could be achieved by changing the Commonwealth Public Service Act to force bureaucrats to consult Indigenous representatives “on matters that significantly impact” them.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/urgent-need-albanese-pushed-on-alternative-to-legislated-voice-following-referendum-defeat-20240104-p5ev62.html

    What are people not getting? The Voice was overwhelmingly rejected by voters. You can’t turn around less than 3 months after the vote and declare you’re going to legislate anyway in spite of what Australians want.

    Give it time. Something will come out of the mess created by the Yes campaign.


  20. Vensays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 8:03 pm
    I consider nath and Rex (or Rex avatar) as avatars of ‘moderste liberals’ in ‘Ian Mcphee’ mould. Ian Mcphee is a Victorian liberal. Right there another reason for ‘moderate Victorian’ mould’.
    They vote 1 for Greens and depending upon their mood allocate the preferences to either Liberal, Teals or ALP.

    They both hate Shorten with passion, who dudded Melbourne Liberal royalty. Right there another reason why they are ‘moderste liberals’in ‘Ian McPhee ‘ mould.
    If you read their musings about Victorian Liberals you can feel their pain about Victorian Liberals behaviour and their inability to keep Victoria as ‘Jewel of Liberal party’. 🙂

  21. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/04/australia-2023-new-car-sales-record-list-top-utes-suvs-ford-ranger-toyota-hilux

    Experts have previously pointed to manufacturers doubling their spend on advertising SUVs and utes over the past decade, and various tax perks such as the instant asset write off scheme as factors that have been nudging Australians towards larger vehicles in recent years.

    Despite the soaring popularity of SUVs – which Australia Institute analysis found has led to drivers needlessly spending an extra $13bn annually to fuel their larger cars – 16.2% of 2023’s sales were of either electric, plug-in hybrid or standard hybrid vehicles.

    Growing popularity of larger cars has begun to change how drivers and pedestrians use Australian roads. As comparable countries with fuel efficiency standards reduce their transport emissions, carbon emissions from cars and light trucks in Australia has increased by 17% over the past two decades.

  22. ‘Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 8:15 pm
    ….
    Give it time. Something will come out of the mess created by the Yes campaign.’

    ———————–

    Not if Dutton can possibly help it. He wanted that mess. He made that mess. He wants that mess to keep going.

  23. Cat

    Since your comprehension skills are so poor I’ll give a bit more context.

    I’m the first male in three generations not to become a Pharmacist. Our family has had pharmacists in private, government and industry. I have friends who are pharmacists. So, I know lots of pharmacists. You’re definitely in the tail of the statistical curve for Pharmacists. I find your lack of intellectual rigour seriously surprising for the profession you joined.

    My father’s pharmacy specialised in servicing aged care facilities. I worked in the shop and doing deliveries from about 10 years old. I got holiday jobs in some of the Aged Care facilities doing window cleaning and maintenance as a teenager. We were the first to introduce the Webster Pack in the State and possibly Australia.

  24. Ven @ #1617 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 7:49 pm


    Grimesays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 6:00 pm
    FUBAR @ #1570 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 5:16 pm

    “ If there is no treaty and no total genocide then there is no success for the Invasion. The Invasion continues. The resistance to the Invasion continues.”

    Australia is one of the most successful nations in the world. Any argument that the “invasion” wasn’t successful denies reality.

    Giving credence to fringe Aboriginal activists on sovereignty not being ceded is as stupid as giving any credence to the “sovereign citizens” idiots.

    The invasion was successful. They lost. Australia is a completely different nation today. Time to get on with reality. Stop the victimhood mentality. That doesn’t mean their culture is denied – people can live how they wish within the laws of the land. I encourage Aboriginal people to connect with their cultures and develop pride in it and develop their youth within it. There are massive benefits from having a sense of belonging. But accept the reality of where we are and where we are going.

    Interesting take on the subject of treaty, Invasion and smarmy gits in Wikipedia.
    Maybe that’s why many of us agree that the UK and it’s heirs and successors screwed over the First nations of the great Southern Land and still are.
    “John Batman (21 January 1801 – 6 May 1839) was an Australian grazier, entrepreneur and explorer. He is best known for his role in the founding of Melbourne.

    Born and raised in the then-British colony of New South Wales, Batman settled in Van Diemen’s Land (modern-day Tasmania) in the 1820s, where he rose to prominence for hunting bushrangers and leading massacres of Aboriginal people in the Black War.

    He later co-founded the Port Phillip Association and led an expedition which explored the Port Phillip area on the Australian mainland with the goal of establishing a new settlement. In 1835, Batman negotiated a treaty with Aboriginal people in Port Phillip by offering them tools, blankets and food in exchange for thousands of hectares of land. However, the treaty was declared void by the government and it has been disputed by Aboriginal descendants. This expedition ultimately resulted in the founding of Melbourne, eventual capital of Victoria and one of Australia’s largest and most important cities. Batman moved to the colony with his convict wife, Elizabeth Callaghan, and their seven daughters, settling on what is now known as Batman’s Hill. He died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38.

    Batman’s treaty stands as the only attempt by a European to engage Australian Aboriginal people in a treaty or transaction rather than simply claiming land outright. However, Batman’s motives and the validity of the treaty remain of great historical.

    So John Batman, who allegedly is ‘founder’ of ‘culturally superior’ Melbourne is
    1. Hunted bushrangers and leading massacres of Aboriginal people in the Black War.
    2. Died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38 implying that he was a ‘womaniser’ or atleast went to brothels a lot although he sired 7 ‘daughters’ with his wife.

    WOW! And he is considered a ‘civilised’ person. Mind boggling isn’t it?

    Yep.
    Most of the early white heroes were cold blooded killers with a whats in it for me frame of mind.
    Angus McMillan is a standout example.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/08/the-scottish-explorer-who-became-the-butcher-of-gippsland

  25. Ven

    So John Batman, who allegedly is ‘founder’ of ‘culturally superior’ Melbourne is

    2. Died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38 implying that he was a ‘womaniser’ or atleast went to brothels a lot although he sired 7 ‘daughters’ with his wife.’
    —————————–
    Catching syphilis before condoms and before penicillin can hardly be used as a sign of immorality.

  26. FUBAR @ #1629 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 8:30 pm

    Cat

    Since your comprehension skills are so poor I’ll give a bit more context.

    I’m the first male in three generations not to become a Pharmacist. Our family has had pharmacists in private, government and industry. I have friends who are pharmacists. So, I know lots of pharmacists. You’re definitely in the tail of the statistical curve for Pharmacists. I find your lack of intellectual rigour seriously surprising for the profession you joined.

    My father’s pharmacy specialised in servicing aged care facilities. I worked in the shop and doing deliveries from about 10 years old. I got holiday jobs in some of the Aged Care facilities doing window cleaning and maintenance as a teenager. We were the first to introduce the Webster Pack in the State and possibly Australia.

    You sound pretty full of yourself young fella,hows the sixty day prescriptions hurting your mates trade.

  27. Boerwar @ #1631 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 8:32 pm

    Ven

    So John Batman, who allegedly is ‘founder’ of ‘culturally superior’ Melbourne is

    2. Died of syphilis shortly afterwards at the age of 38 implying that he was a ‘womaniser’ or atleast went to brothels a lot although he sired 7 ‘daughters’ with his wife.’
    —————————–
    Catching syphilis before condoms and before penicillin can hardly be used as a sign of immorality.

    Indeed even the royals got it.

  28. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 7:32 pm
    Not knowing the current policy on Gaza posts I post this not as a comment on Palestine but as a comment of the fucking idiot ignorant commentators in American Public life… none bigger than Bill Maher ..

    New Rule: From the River to the Sea | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO).

    https://youtu.be/KP-CRXROorw

    Almost impossible to watch till the end
    ____________________________________________________________
    Bill Maher makes good points about how history has changed situations; how people once in control of territories have had those territories taken off them and those territories settled by invaders or new immigrants. He says for that reason, the Palestinians should accept the Jews took what was Palestine and that’s why it’s now Israel and why they (the Israelis) are not going anywhere.
    That’s why Maher ridicules and condemns the “River to the sea” slogan, because it implies Israel has no right to exist.
    Bill Maher should say the same thing to the extremists in the Israeli government who want to settle and annex the West Bank, because Jews lived there thousands of years ago. Shouldn’t they be told to get used to the present-day situation in the West Bank, which is overwhelmingly Palestinian Arab?
    He also failed to say what the Palestinians could reasonably hope for now. He seemed to endorse past proposals for a two-state solution.
    Bill Maher should do so again, instead of drawing cheap laughs from a pro-Israel audience.

  29. “ The housewives of Australia still think about the abolition of the carbon credit scheme while they iron for their troglodyte homophobe husbands to this day.”

    You cockwomble.

    One would think such a decisive defeat as the recent referendum would be educational for those who engineered the self-defeat of the disastrous Yes campaign, but no.

  30. Fess

    Bill Maher used to be my go to. Somewhere along the way, he lost me. I don’t have the patience to listen to anything he says these days.

  31. FUBAR @ #1633 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 8:45 pm

    “ The housewives of Australia still think about the abolition of the carbon credit scheme while they iron for their troglodyte homophobe husbands to this day.”

    You cockwomble.

    One would think such a decisive defeat as the recent referendum would be educational for those who engineered the self-defeat of the disastrous Yes campaign, but no.

    And remember kids if you don’t know vote no.Thank god the earth isn’t flat.

  32. The question is, now that he has won his NO, what is Dutton going to do with his mess?

    Dutton’s mess includes astro turfing racism, dividing the community, lying about history, flip flopping on major policy settings and so on and so forth.

    Unedifying does not come near it.

  33. Maher is quite right to point out that there are leaders in Hamas, the Houthis, Heshbollah and Iran who have, as a vision statement, pushing the jews into the sea.

    There is no understanding the situation in Gaza without understanding this basic fact.

    Where Maher misses the point is the progressive elimination of Palestinians from the West Bank is not ancient history. The appropriate tense for that is ‘present continuous’.

    Where Maher also misses the point is that there are substantial numbers of individuals in the current Israeli Government who have expressed a desire to push Gazans wtte into the sea.

    There is no understanding Gaza with understanding these basic facts, either.

    The notion that there is a negotiated solution for genocidal tendencies of substantial elements of the leadership on both (all) sides requires the center on both (all) sides to regain control of their polities.

    Get back to me when that happens.

  34. “Bill Maher is one of the few sane public lefties in the US. He’s the Joe Hildebrand of the US.”

    The comparison to Joe Hildebrand is well made, the ‘sane’ and ‘leftie’ not so much.

  35. Sky News interviewed a “non Jewish” man who is calling for Qantas staff to be fired for wearing Palestinian flag pins on a domestic flight because he felt intimidated by jihadism.The person is Harrison Grafanakis the Tasmania Branch President of the Liberal Party of Australia. pic.twitter.com/NsEtXE3yPN— Alternate Media Watchers (@AltMediaWatch) January 3, 2024

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1742465574608032237

    Never let a chance for a win in the culture wars go by, oh lord, don’t you ever let a chance go by ..

    (with apologies to Bob Hudson)

  36. Sky News interviewed a “non Jewish” man who is calling for Qantas staff to be fired for wearing Palestinian flag pins on a domestic flight because he felt intimidated by jihadism.The person is Harrison Grafanakis the Tasmania Branch President of the Liberal Party of Australia. pic.twitter.com/NsEtXE3yPN— Alternate Media Watchers (@AltMediaWatch) January 3, 2024

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1742465574608032237

    Never let a chance for a win in the culture wars go by, oh lord, don’t you ever let a chance go by ..

    (with apologies to Bob Hudson)

  37. Grime @ #1630 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 8:36 pm

    FUBAR @ #1629 Thursday, January 4th, 2024 – 8:30 pm

    Cat

    Since your comprehension skills are so poor I’ll give a bit more context.

    I’m the first male in three generations not to become a Pharmacist. Our family has had pharmacists in private, government and industry. I have friends who are pharmacists. So, I know lots of pharmacists. You’re definitely in the tail of the statistical curve for Pharmacists. I find your lack of intellectual rigour seriously surprising for the profession you joined.

    My father’s pharmacy specialised in servicing aged care facilities. I worked in the shop and doing deliveries from about 10 years old. I got holiday jobs in some of the Aged Care facilities doing window cleaning and maintenance as a teenager. We were the first to introduce the Webster Pack in the State and possibly Australia.

    You sound pretty full of yourself young fella,hows the sixty day prescriptions hurting your mates trade.

    It seems as though he’s still using the put-down go to instead of acknowledging that I got him bang to rights from the get-go about his derogatory Tory comment about the Aged Care Workers pay increase being ‘massive’. 😆

    You know what’s even funnier? While I lived in WA, despite having no family history there outside of Esperance, where one branch of the family grows wheat, I still obtained a loan to buy my own pharmacy with no financial history, moved into hospital pharmacy, and ended up working in a plum job in the WA Poisons Information Centre. So for FUBAR to derisively condemn me as the tail end of pharmacy shows that he’s basically a one-eyed Liberal Party zealot, who talks loud while sayin’ nothing.

  38. Speaking about Dutton, who takes every cue from Herr Drumpf and the Republican Party, I thought that this cartoon from this morning’s Dawn Patrol was spot on:

  39. Entropy

    Actually it is only propaganda that suggests the “River to the sea” slogan implies Israel has no right to exist. Currently Gaza is on the sea and West Bank is along the Jordan River. From the most SW corner of the West Bank just east of Israeli town of Lahav to the most NE corner of Gaza just West of Israeli city of Sderot is only a distance of 34 km. An autobahn like the one that connected Berlin to West Germany. Would technically give Palestinians a land connection from the river to the sea.

    __________________________________________

    If you think that’s what the slogan means, then you would have thought Hitler meant only to encourage Jews to leave Germany with generous financial incentives.

  40. “ An autobahn like the one that connected Berlin to West Germany. Would technically give Palestinians a land connection from the river to the sea.”

    If you think that’s all they want then I have a bridge to sell you.

    Great idea though – easy delivery route for rockets into the West Bank.

  41. Entropy

    ‘Actually it is only propaganda that suggests the “River to the sea” slogan implies Israel has no right to exist….’
    ———————————-
    Actually, the genocidal statements by various Heshbollah, Houthi, Iranian and Hamas leaders don’t ‘imply’ anything at all. They are explicit. They state that they want to push the jews into the sea. There are variations as in ‘Death to the jews’ which, gramatically, means all the jews. Then there is ‘gas the jews’.

    Similarly, genocidal statements from leading jewish MPs in the current government also have a final solution ring to them. These include flattening Gaza, driving Gazans out of Gaza and using the doomsday weapon.

    With respect to the ME, Blair was wrong in many big things but he was quite right to be extremely worried about Iran getting nuclear weapons. What faster and more holy way to get to your 72 virgins while doing the will of Allah than by smiting his enemies with fire and brimstone?

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