New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)

First reports emerge of preselection contenders for the looming Dunkley by-election, plus state polls from Victoria and Queensland and much else besides.

First up, developments ahead of the Dunkley by-election, which Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reported yesterday was “unlikely to be held before late February”:

• A Liberal preselection ballot scheduled for January 14 is expected to include Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy; Donna Hope, who as Donna Bauer held the state seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014 and is now an electorate officer to Chris Crewther, former federal member for Dunkley and now state member for Mornington; Bec Buchanan, another staffer to Crewther and the party’s state candidate for Carrum in 2022; and Sorrento real estate agent David Burgess, who was on the party’s Legislative Council ticket for Eastern Victoria in 2022.

Paul Sakkal of The Age today reports the widower of the late Labor member Peta Murphy, Rod Glover, is being encouraged to seek preselection by “senior Labor figures”. The report describes Glover as a “respected former staffer to Kevin Rudd, university professor and public policy expert”. Also mentioned in Rachel Baxendale’s report were Madison Child, an “international relations and public policy graduate in her mid twenties who grew up in Frankston”, and has lately worked as an electorate officer to Murphy; Georgia Fowler, a local nurse who ran in Mornington at the November 2022 state election; and Joshua Sinclair, chief executive of the Committee for Frankston and Mornington Peninsula.

Other preselection news:

• Tim Wilson has confirmed he will seek Liberal preselection to recover the Melbourne seat of Goldstein following his defeat at the hands of teal independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports he is “unlikely to face a challenger”.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian today reports nominations for Liberal National Party preselection will close on January 15 in the inner Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022, and the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, which will be vacated with the retirement of Karen Andrews. The front-runner in the former case is said to be Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser. In addition to the previously identified Ben Naday, Leon Rebello and David Stevens in McPherson (the first two being rated the front-runners) is Adam Fitzgibbons, head of public affairs at Coles. Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for the seat.

Lily McCaffrey of the Herald-Sun reports Emanuele Cicchiello, deputy principal Lighthouse Christian College deputy principal, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Aston, the Melbourne seat that was lost to the party in a historic by-election result on April 1. Cicchiello ran unsuccessfully in Bruce in 2013 and has made numerous other bids for preselection.

• Rochelle Pattison, chair of Transgender Victoria and director of corporate finance firm Chimaera Capital, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Kooyong, joining an existing field consisting of Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris and Michael Flynn.

• The New South Wales Liberal Party website records two unheralded federal election candidates in Sam Kayal, a local accountant who will again run in Werriwa following an unsuccessful bid in 2022, and Katie Mullens, conservative-aligned solicitor at Barrak Lawyers who ran for the state seat of Parramatta in March and has now been preselected for the federal seat of the same name.

Polling news:

• The Courier-Mail sought to read the temperature of Queensland politics post-Annastacia Palaszczuk without breaking the budget by commissioning a uComms robopoll, crediting the Liberal National Party opposition with a two-party lead of 51-49. The only detail provided on primary votes was that the LNP was on 36.2% and Labor 34.4% – no indication was provided as to whether this was exclusive of the uncommitted, which is often not the case withuComms. Steven Miles was viewed positively by 42.7% and negatively by 27.6%, with only the positive rating of 37.8% provided for David Crisafulli. A forced response question on preferred premier had Crisafulli leading Miles by 52.2-47.8. True to the Courier-Mail style guide, the report on this unremarkable set of numbers included the words “startling”, “explosive”, “whopping” and “stunning”. The initial report on Tuesday was accompanied by a hook to a follow-up that promised to tell “who Queenslanders really wanted as Annastacia Palaszczuk’s replacement”. The answer was revealed the next day to be Steven Miles, favoured by 37.8% over Shannon Fentiman on 35.0% and Cameron Dick on 27.1%. The poll was conducted December 21 and 22 from a sample of 1911.

• RedBridge Group has a poll of Victorian state voting intention showing Labor leading 55.9-44.1, little different to the 55.0-45.0 result at the November 2022 election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (36.7% at the election), Coalition 36% (34.5%) and Greens 13% (11.5%). Extensive further results include leadership ratings inclusive of “neither approve nor disapprove” option that find Jacinta Allan viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 30% and neutrally by 32%, John Pesutto at 16% positive, 36% neutral and 29% negative, and Greens leader Samantha Ratnam at 14% positive, 29% neutral and 35% negative. The poll was conducted December 2 to 12 from a sample of 2026.

• Nine Newspapers published results from Resolve Strategic on Thursday on whether various politicians were viewed positively, neutrally, negatively or not at all, which it had held back from its last national poll nearly a month ago. Whereas a similar recent exercise by Roy Morgan simply invited respondents to identify politicians they did and didn’t trust, this one took the to-my-mind more useful approach of presenting respondents with a set list of forty names. In the federal sphere, the five most positively rated were Penny Wong (net 14%, meaning the difference between her positive and negative results), Jacqui Lambie (10%), Jacinta Price (6%), David Pocock (5%) and Tanya Plibersek (3%). The lowest were Scott Morrison (minus 35%), Lidia Thorpe (minus 29%, a particularly remarkable result given what was presumably modest name recognition), Barnaby Joyce (minus 27%), Pauline Hanson (minus 25%) and, interestingly, Bob Katter (minus 15%). Of state leaders, Chris Minns (plus 14%) and David Crisafulli (plus 9%) did notably well, and John Pesutto (minus 7%) and the since-departed Annastacia Palaszczuk (minus 17%) notably poorly. The poll was conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1605.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,460 comments on “New Year miscellany: Dunkley by-election, preselection and polling round-up (open thread)”

Comments Page 38 of 50
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  1. The Carmichael mine has ramped up to 10 million tpa.
    There were a few stooges who said it would never export anything, was all smoke and mirrors, and a ploy to sue the qld government.


  2. Soharsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 10:36 am
    According to Newsweek, “Joe Biden Campaign Volunteers Are Quitting in ‘Droves’”, due to an unmentionable foreign policy folly.

    Did Newsweek mention what religion they belong to?

  3. “Anthony Albanese has concluded a memorable finish to 2023. He was called a “handsome boy” by his new BFF in China; lost his most senior press secretary to resignation; reportedly tasted $500 bottles of wine while on holiday in Western Australia; and spent almost $4m on travel in one year.”

    These are the first lines of ex Bill Shorten staffer Cameron Milner’s article in today’s The Australian. Don’t worry, I’m sure that Milner has the best intentions trying to help the Albanese Government.

  4. nathsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 1:47 pm
    The Carmichael mine has ramped up to 10 million tpa.
    There were a few stooges who said it would never export anything, was all smoke and mirrors, and a ploy to sue the qld government.

    —————————————————————

    Does it export anywhere but India?. Are Indian taxpayers paying over the market price for low grade thermal coal?. I can think of one word that might be reason for this but it is a word you do not say.

    Quote: “All power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely”

  5. With the power corrupts, the rest of the quote seems more important:

    “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority; still more when you superadd the tendency of the certainty of corruption by authority.”

  6. WeWantPaulsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 2:05 pm
    With the power corrupts, the rest of the quote seems more important:
    —————————————————————–

    Any comment on whether the Adani mine is being paid more than it should for its coal due to possible corruption between Adani and the Indian Government?.

  7. We had full and free access to ‘The Weekend Australian’ last weekend.
    We used to be avid readers.
    Neither of us could be bothered to read a word.

    Sad, really.

    To borrow a quote: ‘Sic transit gloria mundi’.


  8. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 11:12 am
    Albo in the Fox Cricket commentary box.

    Edit:

    … with Gilly and Skull.

    Is he sending a message to Murdoch, Channel 7 and Stokes? 🙂

  9. The sooner they burn it all the sooner the monsoon can re-stabilize itself at some new 7m+ coastal setting. Or is that 77m+?
    I am sure they have done the sums.

  10. “Any comment on whether the Adani mine is being paid more than it should for its coal due to possible corruption between Adani and the Indian Government?”

    No I was just sharing what I thought interesting on the power corrupts quote, I wasn’t intending to provoke anyone, or engage.

  11. Entropy @ #1849 Friday, January 5th, 2024 – 1:45 pm

    nathsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 1:34 pm
    Just to make it clear, I’ve never said anyone is corrupt.

    ——————————————————————-

    You might want to specify limits on this statement. Otherwise Player One might think you are claiming to have never called someone corrupt ever.

    Boy, you really got it bad, don’t you?

  12. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 2:08 pm
    Quoters tend to corrupt and absolute quoters corrupt absolutely.

    OTOH, only powerless quoters are pure quoters.

    ————————————————–

    “Worse, we construct a philosophy of failure, which finds in defeat a form of justification and a proof of the purity of our principles. Certainly, the impotent are pure.”


  13. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 11:35 am
    Two “dedicated and unapologetic white supremacists” who targeted the Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s son in a neo-Nazi podcast have now been jailed for terrorism offences.
    At Kingston Crown Court on Thursday, 4 January, Christopher Gibbons was sentenced to 11 years imprisonment, and Tyrone Patten-Walsh, 34, to 10 years. Both will also be subject to a 15-year-long notification order and serve three years on licence when they are released, to reduce their ability to cause further harm. Gibbons, 40, described Harry and Meghan’s son Archie as a “creature [that] should be put down” and called for the Duke to be “prosecuted and judicially killed for treason”.
    He made the comments on an extreme right-wing radio-style chat show he hosted with Patten-Walsh, who also had “profoundly offensive” extreme views, the court heard.
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/white-supremacists-jailed-terrorism-prince-harry-meghan-markle-neo-nazi-podcast/

    So what UK is saying that people, who threaten monarchy and/ or his Majesty council of ministers are considered terrorists and jailed for lengthy jail sentences of 11 years. I have no problem with that. Does any PB bloggers have a problem with that sentencing based notions like “Freedom of Speech”?

    If you don’t answer I consider like myself you have no issue with this case or sentencing.

  14. Bangla Desh is going to have shift its t shirt factories a long way inland if current projections for what is going to happen to their shorelines come to pass.

    Still.

    I am sure they have done the sums.

  15. WeWantPaulsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 2:13 pm
    “Any comment on whether the Adani mine is being paid more than it should for its coal due to possible corruption between Adani and the Indian Government?”

    No I was just sharing what I thought interesting on the power corrupts quote, I wasn’t intending to provoke anyone, or engage.

    ———————————————————

    No worries, there was 4 corners show on Adani sometime ago. I can remember them being very dodgy but not all of the details though. So i’m happy if anyone can do some filling in if they wish.

  16. An Air Force B-1B Lancer crashed at 5:50 p.m. (MDT) Thursday during a training mission while attempting to land in South Dakota installation. Four aircrew were on board. All four ejected safely according to the 28th Bomb Wing Public Affairs Office.

  17. “If you don’t answer I consider like myself you have no issue with this case or sentencing.”

    I think generally there was a tendency post 9-11 to move the rubicon of criminal responsibility too close to the ‘thought crimes’ end of the spectrum.

    There is also a risk of over criminilasing stupidity, at the thought crimes end of the specific terrorism offences.

    Generally, aligned with the post 9/11 panic the sentences were pretty extreme.

    I’m not sure either this conviction or the sentence shows any of the poor thinking of the panic anti-terrorism waves of law post 9/11, but if the sentence does include a few years of panic terrorism law premium the offenders do not appear likely to get a lot of sympathy from anyone.

  18. There days the The Australian is the same as the Courier Mail, Daily Telegraph & Herald Sun, just with slightly better prose and grammar and in broadsheet format.


  19. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 12:40 pm
    Happy to oblige, Flubber:

    ‘Tony Irwin, a nuclear engineer at the Australian National University says Australia will need to be ready to manage low- and intermediate-level radioactive wastes from routine submarine operations from 2033, and manage high-level waste and spent fuel from around 2060 (when the first submarines are decommissioned).

    ‘He says, high-level nuclear waste, including spent fuel (containing large amounts of highly enriched uranium) will be both highly radioactive and producing heat, so it would initially be placed in a cooling pond.

    ‘After cooling down enough to be transported, Irwin says there are four options for disposal.

    ‘The first is to store the material inside a dry cask made from steel and concrete. This is how most nuclear power station waste is dealt with, Irwin says.

    ‘The second is to send the fuel offshore for re-processing, which currently happens with high-level waste from Lucas Heights facility. “The reprocessing removes the uranium and plutonium and leaves you with fission products and minor actinides [lower-level radioactive elements]”, he says.

    ‘The third option, is deep geological disposal, typically 500 metres underground. Or, using disposal technologies like CSIRO’s deep borehole techniques, or the waste treatment technology Synroc, developed by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Association.

    ‘A fourth option, could potentially involve re-using the fuel in a fast-neuron reactor, he says.’

    But wait, there’s more!

    ‘Curtin University nuclear scientist, Associate Professor Nigel Marks, says while Australia has managed to avoid dealing with high-level waste in the past – by sending it to France for re-processing – under AUKUS there is a clear commitment to manage the waste onshore.

    ‘“There’ll be no dodging this particular bullet,” he says.’

    https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/explainer-radioactive-waste-from-aukus-nuclear-submarines/

    OS
    Do you mean to say to FUBAR, who lives in WA, that
    1. That he doesn’t know WTF is happening in his own backyard
    2. Half knowledge is more dangerous than ignorance. 🙂

  20. Vensays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 3:05 pm
    OS
    Do you mean to say to FUBAR, who lives in WA, that
    1. That he doesn’t know WTF is happening in his own backyard
    2. Half knowledge is not good for one’s health ( literally) in this case.

    ————————————————————————–

    While i don’t necessarily want to be one to defend Fubar here. You appear to be confusing two different issues. Fubar was responding to Irene’s post on USA nuclear submarines being stationed here. For which we will not have any responsibility for disposing of used fuel rods for. What you appear to be talking about is the disposal of fuel rods from our own nuclear subs which we have either bought from USA or built ourselves sometime in the future?. These are two different issues and one Fubar was responding to was what Irene had incorrectly said about USA subs being stationed here.


  21. Player Onesays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 12:58 pm
    Keating was wrong – the AUKUS deal is not “the worst deal in all history” …

    https://michaelwest.com.au/correction-paul-keating-aukus-worse-than-just-the-worst-deal-in-all-history/

    Paul Keating was wrong when he said AUKUS was the worst deal in all history. He missed the mark. It’s actually worse than what he said. It’s looking like the dumbest deal ever.

    What Keating did get right, though, was a second statement “At the Kabuki show in San Diego [to announce the deal] a day or so ago, there’s three leaders standing there. Only one is paying. Our bloke, Albo. The other two, they’ve got the band playing Happy Days are Here Again.”

    He has a way with words, does our ex-PM … and I suspect he knows a great deal more about it the issue anyone here on PB does.

    P1
    Our ex-PM Keating “has has a way with words”. No doubt about that.
    At Labor conference last year there was only one issue where discussion was not allowed apparently by Albanese government. AUKUS deal.
    Even US Congress asked many questions before signing a deal where the President has several ‘Out’ clauses and where only Australia pays for the upgrade of US Submarine building yards


  22. S. Simpsonsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 12:55 pm
    Nicholassays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 9:33 pm
    The founding charter of the Likud Party in Israel includes the statement: “Between the sea and the Jordan there will only be Israeli sovereignty.”

    So in other words, an apartheid state.

    But Israel is the only functional liberal democracy in ME. So how can it be an apartheid state?

  23. S. Simpson says:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 1:53 pm
    “Anthony Albanese has concluded a memorable finish to 2023. He was called a “handsome boy” by his new BFF in China; lost his most senior press secretary to resignation; reportedly tasted $500 bottles of wine while on holiday in Western Australia; and spent almost $4m on travel in one year.”

    These are the first lines of ex Bill Shorten staffer Cameron Milner’s article in today’s The Australian. Don’t worry, I’m sure that Milner has the best intentions trying to help the Albanese Government.

    ———————

    Anyone who was Bill Shorten’s staffer or friend would be of a like mind. The right faction of Labor, Shorten’s faction, will be very close in ideals to Liberal moderates.
    Like IPA Past CEO John Roskam, Shorten was best man at his wedding, went to the same exclusive Melbourne Catholic school.
    Shorten and Milner would be supportive of business needs, such as Adani – I remember before the 2019 election, Shorten was concerned that stopping any multinational who wanted to mine our coal or minerals would result in ‘sovereign risk’, none would want to invest in Australia.
    And supportive of the USA links, and high immigration.
    Cameron Milner, writing for The Australian would therefore be in his comfort zone. But this article would seem a step too far for any loyal Labor supporter.
    As I have thought Shorten must be itching for another attempt as a Labor PM. And becoming a union secretary must have seemed the best way to get there.

  24. S. Simpson @ #1853 Friday, January 5th, 2024 – 1:53 pm

    “Anthony Albanese has concluded a memorable finish to 2023. He was called a “handsome boy” by his new BFF in China; lost his most senior press secretary to resignation; reportedly tasted $500 bottles of wine while on holiday in Western Australia; and spent almost $4m on travel in one year.”

    These are the first lines of ex Bill Shorten staffer Cameron Milner’s article in today’s The Australian. Don’t worry, I’m sure that Milner has the best intentions trying to help the Albanese Government.

    #BoughtandpaidforLaborRat

  25. Entropy @ #1877 Friday, January 5th, 2024 – 3:15 pm

    These are two different issues and one Fubar was responding to was what Irene had incorrectly said about USA subs being stationed here.

    Actually, I’ve read back through today’s posts on this subject and the only errors I can find were posted by FUBAR and yourself. But I may have missed something, or they may have been posted earlier than today. Perhaps you could identify the offending posts?

  26. So I say – where is the money to help aboriginal communities to improve their housing, education, medical services, jobs, skills training? To close the gap?
    You tell me? Waiting…,,
    $100million will not go far.

    Boerwar owned you, Irene, for this piece of absolute garbage and bundle of lies. Yet you still persist in telling more and not copping to the ones you’ve been called out on already.

    You aren’t commenting in good faith. And we all know it.

    Still, a disinformation campaign doesn’t rely on convincing us, it just needs the silent ones in the Lurkers Lounge to be sucked in by it. And that’s why I can confidently predict that you won’t let any amount of fact-checking your lies stop you from continuing to spam this blog with your lies for the rest of the year.

    And the Bill Shorten guff? Give. Me. A. Break. He doesn’t even have a base in Victoria which can campaign for him behind the scenes any more any louder or more forcefully than a pipsqueak, let alone a national campaign to lead Labor to another monumental election loss. 😐

  27. C@tmomma @ #1883 Friday, January 5th, 2024 – 3:37 pm

    And the Bill Shorten guff? Give. Me. A. Break. He doesn’t even have a base in Victoria which can campaign for him behind the scenes any more any louder or more forcefully than a pipsqueak, let alone a national campaign to lead Labor to another monumental election loss. 😐

    Is this what has the partisans here panicking today?

  28. Paul Keating has a way with words. And that’s about all he’s got these days. He certainly doesn’t have any inside knowledge about AUKUS. What he does have, I think, is Relevance Deprivation Syndrome.

    I know someone working on the AUKUS project in Canberra and she is very serious about the work she is doing. She is very smart, and also very much keeping it under her hat. So what all these, to use a Keating phrase, nattering nabobs of negativity, have to say is essentially pure speculation. Believe them if you must. It’s called Confirmation Bias.

  29. Good grief Bill Shorten just won’t let the ambition go.

    Chalmers will be the next Labor leader put your house on it.

  30. So 6 out of our top 7 batsmen made solid starts to their innings, but all of them failed to convert. This is not good enough. The difference between obtaining a vital 100-150 run first innings lead (which is essential if forced to bat second at the SCG) to convert that into a win. Well done to the Pakistanis though: perseverance and a little luck may well see them win this test.

  31. Agreed about Shorten, Rex. It’s one thing to be ambitious, but another thing entirely to be aware of one’s own limitations.

  32. C@t knows someone who is embedded within the Morrison marketing scam. Who is ‘serious’ and not saying anything.

    By a process of osmosis that makes C@t qualified to criticise Paul Keating.

    Y’all know that makes sense. …

  33. Ven says:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 3:21 pm

    S. Simpsonsays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 12:55 pm
    Nicholassays:
    Thursday, January 4, 2024 at 9:33 pm
    The founding charter of the Likud Party in Israel includes the statement: “Between the sea and the Jordan there will only be Israeli sovereignty.”

    So in other words, an apartheid state.

    But Israel is the only functional liberal democracy in ME. So how can it be an apartheid state?

    ———-
    Democracy is a system of government in which state power is vested in the people or the general population of a state. According to the United Nations, democracy “provides an environment that respects human rights and fundamental freedoms, and in which the freely expressed will of people is exercised.” Wikipedia
    Is this Israel?

    2022 Amnesty report
    The report states that, taken together, Israeli practices, including land expropriation, unlawful killings, forced displacement, restrictions on movement, and denial of citizenship rights amount to the crime of apartheid.
    https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Is…
    Israel and apartheid – Wikipedia

    Also found on any Amnesty International site. With examples.

  34. Speaking of the Red Sea the UK will find it more difficult to help: The Royal Navy has so few sailors that it has to decommission two warships to staff its new class of frigates, The Telegraph can reveal.
    HMS Westminster, which was recently refurbished at huge expense to the taxpayer, and HMS Argyll will be decommissioned this year. The crews will be sent to work across the new fleet of Type 26 frigates as they come into service.
    It comes as the Armed Forces experience a significant recruitment crisis, with the Navy having suffered a collapse in the flow of new recruits into the service. A defence source told The Telegraph: “We will have to take manpower from one area of the Navy in order to put into a new area of the force.” The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has ordered eight Type 26 frigates, which will be the Navy’s most advanced submarine-hunting warships to date.

  35. Player Onesays:
    Friday, January 5, 2024 at 3:32 pm
    Entropy @ #1877 Friday, January 5th, 2024 – 3:15 pm

    These are two different issues and one Fubar was responding to was what Irene had incorrectly said about USA subs being stationed here.

    Actually, I’ve read back through today’s posts on this subject and the only errors I can find were posted by FUBAR and yourself. But I may have missed something, or they may have been posted earlier than today. Perhaps you could identify the offending posts?
    ——————————————————————-

    Believe whatever you like, as you do anyway.

    Quote:
    “Yet Clare’s sharp questions must I shun;
    Must separate Constance from the Nun–
    O, what a tangled web we weave,
    When first we practise to deceive!
    A Palmer too!–no wonder why
    I felt rebuked beneath his eye:
    I might have known there was but one,
    Whose look could quell Lord Marmion.”

  36. @Simpson and Irene: I’m not sure how Israeli sovereignty over the area they currently occupy is meant to be evidence of an apartheid state except in the circular reasoning of people who believe Israel is intrinsically an apartheid state and therefore Israel sovereignty anywhere = apartheid.

    Just as the genocide claims fall short in the face of Israel clearly not attempting to wipe out all Palestinians (and generally made by backers of the people who have claimed to want to wipe out all Jews), the apartheid claims are made by people backing the Islamic theocracies near Israel. Forget being a non Muslim in most of these countries – even being the wrong type of Muslim will get you persecuted and slain.

    It’s crazy, I have no love for Netanyahu or for Sharon the Butcher (who somehow ended up looking like the reasonable option compared to Netanyahu before his stroke) or for the shit they’ve run in the name of Israel for a long time, but I find myself mostly on the defensive regarding Israel in the online circles I tread in like this because of the crazily unbalanced narratives being pushed on most of the left which treat genocidal terrorists and brutal theocratic regimes like the good guys doing no wrong.

    Some of it is latent anti Semitism, a lot of it is kneejerk anti-Americanism and anti American allies, some of it is because there are hundreds of times more Muslims than Jews out there to push their angles – there’s not many people outside Israel to go to bat for Israel and hundreds of millions to go to bat against Israel (and unfortunately, that is seen in a number of international organisations where Muslim numbers and money far outweigh any countering influence, which is why statements from the UN and NGOs have little weight on this). And unfortunately, a massive lack of historical memory among younger people who have only seen Israel as the oppressor on TV news and YouTube and don’t really know about the Holocaust nor the events of 1948, nor Arafat and Rabin and Barak or all the rest of it.

    The conflict can only actually end with both sides coming together to want peace and let bygones be bygones in spite of everything. Bystanders trying to egg on one side to be the 100% winner, 100% in the right, end the other side, get revenge for everything? You are egging on endless war, and that is why I keep bothering to stick my oar in. Hoping that maybe I’ll influence someone to stop egging on endless war and the endless cycle of revenge and start supporting a peaceful solution.

    To me, if we could only get rid of Hamas and get a Palestinian leadership actually interested in peace, it could be achieved by now as it could have if Arafat didn’t turn down Barak. Netanyahu is on his last legs but even if he stays in power a bit longer the Americans aren’t interested in egging Israel on any further if there’s actual peace on the table again. If the Palestinian side is willing to deal, I think Israel will deal sooner rather than later. But that willingness on the Palestinian side to talk hasn’t been there for a long time – that’s the first step to peace, to get that back.

  37. “Leadershit” speculation about Shorten has to be the single most tired bit of trolling in the arsenal of the Liberals and their far left hangers on.

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