Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Monday miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Rainman says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 10:57 am
    The hypocrisy is incredible from people who are quite happy to let the ‘genocide’ word be thrown at the Russia/Ukraine war.

    _____________________________________________

    Which people are those Rainman?

  2. Let’s see

    300,000 houses @ $500,000

    $150,000,000,000

    If you do median house prices it comes to a tad more. If you do 400,000 houses then it comes to a tad more than that. Say anywhere between $200 and $400 billion.

    Climate change does not come cheap.

    #plus 2.5 degrees.

  3. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 10:56 am
    Entropy says:

    n my opinion: Rex’s original post was a statement by an Australian politician. So it was technically within the rules. The moratorium was first broken first by @Cat reply and not player one though.

    ____________________________________-

    I referred to an Australian politician, so I’m within the rules too.

    —————————————————————–

    If you believe that, well and good. Though if you read my statement you will see i made no such claim about you. So keep posting your nasty takes on this if you believe they are within guidelines. They only show what sort of person you are and by doing so do nothing for the side you claim to represent. Unless to highlight how uncaring and with out any empathy or remorse they actually are.


  4. Socratessays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 10:17 am
    Boerwar

    “ We know that the Indian Navy took part in one action against the Houthis. I wonder whether they took part in the lastest mass aerial assault against (increasingly) random third party merchant ships?”

    As I understand their statement, the Indian Navy has sent out a group of ships that are taking responsibility for security of shipping in the Arabian Sea between the Red Sea and India. This is a large area and it makes sense for one group to secure it and another to secure the Red Sea. The two efforts are complimentary and don’t overlap.

    Socrates and BW
    As per the link I provided regarding cooperation with US and its allies, the report said that Indian Navy is not part of US led “Operation Prosperity Guardian” coalition.
    Currently, Whatever they are doing they are doing it for their own objectives and the objectives are:
    1. To provide safe passage to Indian bound Merchant ships.
    2. Protect any ship in Arabian sea, which has Indian crew.
    3. As per Indian Defence minister they will hunt down anyone who causes harm to any Indian bound ships. For example, hunting down the ship captured by Somali pirates and rescuing the ship and its Indian crew.

    It is possible that they don’t want to be seen to be associated with US coalition due to sensitivities with their neighbouring West Asia Muslim countries. But who knows.

  5. As former Gov. Chris Christie dropped out of the presidential race less than a week before the Iowa Caucus, both friends and foes of Donald Trump lined up with mockery.
    “I would rather lose by telling the truth than lie in order to win, and I feel no differently today because this is a fight for the soul of our party and the soul of our country,” Christie told a New Hampshire audience. Dr. Mary L. Trump suggested that Christie should “endorse” President Joe Biden. “Chris Christie was caught on a hot mic saying Nikki Haley, and that DeSantis is privately petrified,” she also remarked.
    Author and activist Don Winslow called Christie a “Lifelong opportunist. I have never believed a word this man says and I urge you to not fall for or support what IMO is his lifelong opportunist grift.”

  6. Socrates

    My daughters council flood zoning says less than 1% annual chance of a flood event of varying degrees.
    Insurance companies argue otherwise.
    It doesn’t matter if sections of burbs didn’t go under in recent flood events. Whole postcodes are excluded or penalised.

    Since 2011 and the Toowoomba inland tsunami we’ve been slogged with water ‘event’ insurance hikes and/or exclusions.
    We are on the very top of the mountain.


  7. GoldenSmaugsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 10:30 am
    The government is going to have to create an ‘Insurer of Last Resort’

    The cognitive dissonance on display from climate change deniers is amazing. I agree we need government to underwrite insurance companies as a last resort (with very specific criteria defined to stop corporate malfeasance).
    Florida is full of RWNJ’s and climate deniers but one of the biggest issues they are running into is that large swaths of Florida is uninsurable.
    The number of people that deny climate change but demand that government deal with the insurance crisis (due to climate change) is bizarre.
    The same will happen to the more vulnerable communities in Australia.

    Florida Is Beginning To Lose Homeowners Over High Insurance Premiums

    No wonder.

  8. Entropy

    If you believe that, well and good. Though if you read my statement you will see i made no such claim about you. So keep posting your nasty takes on this if you believe they are within guidelines. They only show what sort of person you are and by doing so do nothing for the side you claim to represent. Unless to highlight how uncaring and with out any empathy or remorse they actually are.

    ___________________________________________

    Which side do I claim to represent?

  9. laughtong says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:17 am
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-expected-to-speak-from-frankston-20240111-p5ewg9.html?btis

    ALP candidate for Dunkley announced. Woman who has held ‘real’ jobs in the Herald Sun commentors terminology

    _________________________________________

    One poster here will be distraught that there will be no preselection battle offering the opportunity to report (whether true or not) oodles of blood on the carpet through factional battles. I wonder what the Liberal preselection battle will be like.

  10. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:11 am
    Entropy

    Which side do I claim to represent?

    ——————————————————————

    If you are incapable of discerning which side your posts are supporting. What would be the point of me telling you. As your ability for self deception would need to be so developed not to realise. That you are likely not to believe the truth when told it anyway.

  11. There will be monumentally large costs connected with climate change. We cannot compute these yet because we don’t know when the temperatures will stop rising, nor the extent of knock-on events and processes and their various impacts.

    But we can establish one first principle for meeting these costs. The beneficiaries of the extraction and marketing of fossil fuels and the clearing of land should be the first to pay. They are making terrific profits. They can cough up.

    The Commonwealth should impose a climate change abatement and adaptation tax. The resource sector and the land-clearing sector should be taxed as much as is necessary to defray the losses involved in the broad economy.

    There will be pressure for the whole-of-society to meet the losses of specific groups. This is to socialise the losses while the profits continue to accrue privately. This is the go-to approach of the Nationals. This should be opposed.

  12. Boerwar

    “Where do the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea meet? If it is at the Bab…”

    Not exactly. There is some wiggle room in the definitions. Strictly speaking the Red Sea is the bit leading from the Suez Canal up to the Bab-el-Mendab, with the Gulf of Aden on the other (east) side. The Gulf of Aden is the bit in between the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. The Houthis have launched attacks into all three.

    So the US-led task force is patrolling the Red Sea and (presumably) the Gulf of Aden and the Indian task force is patrolling the Arabian Sea.

    Regardless of politics, in practice I assume they would communicate with each other and have some common understanding of who protected what.

  13. Squadron Energy, Australia’s largest renewable energy developer — owned by billionaire Andrew Forrest — will rapidly expand its zero emission energy generation capacity more than seven-fold within six years, a pledge which, should it materialise, will be a major boost to the country’s ailing energy transition.

    Squadron Energy had pledged to build 20GW of new solar and wind generation, but Mr Forrest on Thursday said the overwhelming majority of the new build will occur by 2030 with 14GW of new capacity added.

    The target, should it be met, would mark a substantial increase to Australia’s renewable energy capacity and would go a long way in allowing Canberra to meet its transition targets, which it is currently on course to miss and has stoked concerns the country will have to either prolong the use of coal or risk blackouts.

    Federal Energy minister Chris Bowen hailed the actions of Squadron Energy, claiming the move as evidence of corporate Australia responding to Labor’s energy policy assurance. “These projects are further proof renewable energy investors are getting on with the job, capitalising on Australia’s huge renewable potential, and helping transform our energy grid for the 21st century,” said Mr Bowen.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/andrew-forrest-pledges-massive-renewable-expansion-by-2030/news-story/e786b1a1c83fff13be41b9059fdaef3d?amp

  14. Soc

    Interesting!

    Is the Gulf of Aden a Gulf of the Arabian Sea or a Gulf of the Red Sea? If the former then the Bab is, logically, the boundary between the two seas.

    I reckon you would almost certainly be right about the respective navies doing some quiet divvying up as to spheres of responsibility – even if only to prevent ‘misunderstandings’.

  15. Boerwar

    Yes in an era when dozens of hostile drones are being fired it would be easy for warships that don’t communicate to accidentally shoot each others’ helicopters down, mistaking them for “enemy drones”. We all remember the USS Vincennes in the Persian Gulf, so you are quite right about the risk.

    I believe the Gulf of Aden is regarded as its own locality, in the same way as the Persian Gulf is. I could be wrong.

  16. Entropy

    You said that I claimed to represent a side. Now, rather than identify that side (impossible given I never claimed to represent a side) you accuse me of something or other rather than admit you lied. You are just like P1 – a dishonest shape shifter.

  17. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:55 am
    Entropy

    You said that I claimed to represent a side. Now, rather than identify that side (impossible given I never claimed to represent a side) you accuse me of something or other rather than admit you lied. You are just like P1 – a dishonest shape shifter.

    ————————————————————-

    Sorry i forgot how pedantic you are about my grammar and word usage. I think most people would understand what i was saying there. Though for the sake of clarity and not allow any ambiguity for you to further exploit. My statement i made “side you claim to represent” would be far less open to interpretation by you if it read instead the “side you claim to support.”. As that is closer to exact meaning i was trying to convey here.

  18. I heard decades ago, back when people were first getting concerned about Alcoa clearing WA jarrah forest, that they only reason they were operating in WA with its low grade bauxite was because they were getting it just about for free.

    And apart from the cleared forests which they’ve only ever made token efforts to rehabilitate, it really is an environmental disaster.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/when-will-alcoa-clean-up-in-kwinana-20240110-p5ewcw.html

    It’s only in the last few months that the lid has been lifted on some of the agreements under which the company is allowed to operate.

    But this is WA. Mining rules.

  19. There were 389,000 job vacancies in November 2023, down 3,000 from August, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). David Taylor, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “The number of job vacancies fell by around 1 per cent between August and November. “This was the sixth straight quarterly drop in job vacancies, which have now fallen by around 18 per cent from the historical peak in May 2022. However, this quarter saw a relatively small decline, compared with the 8 per cent fall in August. “Job vacancies remain well above their pre-COVID-19 pandemic level, around 71 per cent higher than February 2020.”

    The slow fall in the number of job vacancies from its peak also coincided with recent increases in the unemployment rate. However, both continue to suggest that the labour market remains relatively tight. “The number of unemployed people per job vacancy was 1.5 in November. While this is higher than 1.1, when it was at its pandemic low, it is still well below the 3.1 figure in February 2020,” Mr Taylor said. “Similarly, the most recent Labour Account data for the September quarter, showed that job vacancies still accounted for around 2.6 per cent of jobs in the labour market, which was well above the 1.6 per cent from the March quarter 2020.”
    https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/slight-fall-job-vacancies-november

  20. laughtongsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:17 am
    ALP candidate for Dunkley announced. Woman who has held ‘real’ jobs in the Herald Sun commentors terminology.
    _____________________
    Hold your horses.
    Nominations close on Friday. It’s only Thursday.

  21. One good Peta deserves another!

    How about Peta Credlin for Liberal candidate in Dunkley? She’s Victorian, and she’d be representing a seat that’s quintessentially middle Australia. She would be as loved as her predecessor.

  22. Entropy

    It’s not the grammar. It’s the lack of primary school comprehension. My problem was particularly with the word ‘claim’ which is wrong, whether the next would is either ‘represent’ or ‘support’..

  23. Taylormade @ #1175 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 12:29 pm

    laughtongsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:17 am
    ALP candidate for Dunkley announced. Woman who has held ‘real’ jobs in the Herald Sun commentors terminology.
    _____________________
    Hold your horses.
    Nominations close on Friday. It’s only Thursday.

    TaylorMade
    This is directly from the Age article.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced federal Labor’s candidate for the seat of Dunkley after the passing of Peta Murphy.

    Speaking from the Frankston Bowling Club on Thursday, Albanese announced Jodie Belyea as Dunkley’s candidate, saying she would be a voice for the community.

  24. Need to include the number of immigrants looking for jobs in the abs survey.Otherwise it is a dishonest view of the real demand for jobs.

    Covid cases update today cases down for the past three weeks in WA.

  25. pied pipersays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 12:40 pm
    Need to include the number of immigrants looking for jobs in the abs survey.Otherwise it is a dishonest view of the real demand for jobs.

    Covid cases update today cases down for the past three weeks in WA.

    ——————————————————————

    So you suggesting how the ABS reports unemployment data be changed now we have a ALP Government?. Or were you suggesting that also under the last 9 years of LNP Governments too?.

  26. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 11:07 am
    I support William’s moratorium. Without it, this place would be a cesspit.
    _________________

    Seconded

  27. Forrest pledges huge renewable expansion

    “Billionaire Andrew Forrest has promised 20GW of renewable energy by 2030 in a move that has Canberra breathing easier about meeting its targets”

    Oz headline

  28. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 12:35 pm
    Entropy

    It’s not the grammar. It’s the lack of primary school comprehension. My problem was particularly with the word ‘claim’ which is wrong, whether the next would is either ‘represent’ or ‘support’..

    ————————————————————————–

    Sorry for my lack of primary school comprehension. Obviously i lacked it for this statement of yours below too. Aren’t you saying here (below) that you expect me to link your views to a certain world leader for no apparent reason at all except that i’m stupid?.

    So to clarify, i would only link your views to that world leader because i lack even a primary school level comprehension?. So do you have the delusion that everyone who links your views to that world leader does so because they lack a primary school level of comprehension?

    I note you link my views to Ali Khamenei, while i can post numerous examples of you having views supportive of the other world leader you cite. Can you show any posts in which i support Iran or this leader?. In fact i was suggesting the blowing up of Iran missile factories just a few days ago. A statement that resulted in me coping far more flak than any Iran missile factory was required to. In order to protect themselves from incoming missiles, unfortunately.

    TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 10:56 am
    Entropy says:

    ————————————————————-
    In my opinion: Rex’s original post was a statement by an Australian politician. So it was technically within the rules. The moratorium was first broken first by @Cat reply and not player one though.
    ____________________________________-
    I referred to an Australian politician, so I’m within the rules too.
    And Entropy, your view on this has as much credibility as Ali Khamenei. And I’ll save you the trouble of saying that my view has as much credibility as Netanyahu.

  29. Supermarket record profits ‘out of sync’: PM
    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Coles and Woolworths making record profits during a cost-of-living crisis is a concern and ‘will act’ if consumer prices don’t fall.

  30. Very glad to see that there federal opposition leader is talking about the most important issue facing Australia today:

    Peter Dutton is now actively calling for a boycott of Woolworths over its decision to not sell Australia Day merchandise (the supermarket says there's been a "gradual decline in demand" for such goods)in a 2GB interview: pic.twitter.com/wXJ8700C69— Josh Butler (@JoshButler) January 11, 2024

  31. Murdoch’s Adelaide Advertiser has restored the column of conservative Liberal Nicolle Flint, who is between seats after she found federal Boothby too hot for her to handle.

    After her foray yesterday, when she alleged Matt Thistlethwaite was being paid for doing nothing as Minister for the Republic. That’s stirred ’em up.

    Meanwhile, Nicolle has her eyes on the state seat of MacKillop, held by establishment Liberal Nick McBride, who quit the party in disgust and now sits as an independent.

  32. Albanese and Morrison have quite a bit in common.

    Both love the cameras.
    Both pat themselves on the back for not doing much.
    Both protect their political donors interests before anyone elses.

  33. More division from “Do nothing Dutton”

    Woolworths is part of the duopoly, as if telling punters to boycott them will do any good.

  34. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 1:24 pm
    Albanese and Morrison have quite a bit in common.

    Both love the cameras.
    Both pat themselves on the back for not doing much.
    Both protect their political donors interests before anyone elses.

    ———————————————————————-

    One major difference between them is that Albo copes, probably undeserved, flak daily from Rex Douglas. While i suspect when Morrison was PM and deserved flak for many failures. This blog probably heard crickets from Rex.

  35. Lars Von Trier says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 1:24 pm
    I’m a little surprised to see you backing Australia Day so strong D&M. Bully for you.

    _____________

    I can see why you are surprised, Edward/Edwina/Lars. Let me help you understand. Your comprehension skills are lacking 🙂

  36. Is Dutton playing culture wars or CoL wars with his attack on Woollies ?

    Naming the CEO, twice, is just inciting his cooker audience to target the bloke personally. Dutton really is a POS.

  37. BW A-E, Socrates and others interested in UK Military

    The Houthis threaten the world’s shipping, but the Royal Navy is falling apart

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/royal-navy-crisis-houthis-red-sea-gulf-shipping-b1131178.html

    “At the weekend the frigate HMS Richmond left Devonport to join HMS Diamond in the task force protecting international shipping from attacks by Houthi militias. The Royal Navy now has ships and forces on operations from the Baltic to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, the Gulf and beyond.

    The offshore patrol vessel HMS Trent is standing off Guyana to offer Britain’s support in a tussle with Venezuela over oil-rich territory. Not that such a lightly-armed vessel could do much if it came to a shooting war with Nicolas Maduro’s forces.

    Though unseasonably busy, the Navy is facing the worst crisis in resources and manning in living memory. Ships are being laid up or taken out of service early for lack of skilled crew. More are leaving than joining — and the same is happening in all three services now. For the Army and Navy the crisis is becoming acute. In the past few days an advert appeared on LinkedIn to recruit a rear admiral, at a handsome salary, to head up the submarine service. Apparently no suitable candidates could be found from those currently serving. The agency Serco advertised for deckhands for the Royal Fleet Auxiliary — which provides vital support tankers, freighters and assault mother ships. The ad was swiftly removed as inappropriate for a supporting arm to His Majesty’s fighting forces.

    The crisis for the Navy and the forces is summed up simply as personnel and procurement, or man (and woman) power and money. The war in Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the threats to underwater communications closer to home, are just a few of the reasons why any government elected this year will need to generate a new, and credible, National Security Strategy as a priority.

    The UK now spends something over £50 billion a year in one of the world’s largest defence budgets. It is not being spent well, as the National Audit Office pointed out in its report last November on the MoD’s equipment programme. “The plan is unaffordable,” the report states tersely, with a 27 per cent increase on the projections made only the year before, 2022.

    The biggest increase in costs is in the Defence Nuclear Organisation, responsible for the nuclear deterrent, where the projected cost has gone up 67 per cent according to the NAO. “The nuclear programme is now eating through the rest of the defence budget,” a senior officer commented.

    The National Security Strategy will have to cover more than just defence, and include public security in the new context of threats of pandemics, climate-driven disaster, social disorder and the stresses in an ageing society. The new government should look at the Blair defence review of 1998 and the Cameron strategic defence review of 2010 — especially for their mistakes. After all, we are still suffering their consequences.”

    I repeat quote:
    “The biggest increase in costs is in the Defence Nuclear Organisation, responsible for the nuclear deterrent, where the projected cost has gone up 67 per cent according to the NAO. “The nuclear programme is now eating through the rest of the defence budget,” a senior officer commented.”

    But Dutton and L-NP want to go “Nuclear”. God may save the King, but anyone save us from Dutton and L-NP.

  38. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 1:32 pm
    Entropy, I’ll have you know I was onto Morrison very early on as a fraud and nutter. It’s all in the archives here.

    __________

    Agreed. And you were for Albanese during the election campaign. A “Meat and potatoes” approach.

    Then something changed 🙂

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