Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Monday miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. meher baba
    We’re talking about a country that still refuses to relinquish a number of its colonial possessions around the globe (French Guyana, Martinique, Gaudeloupe, French Polynesia, New Caledonia, etc., etc.

    To be fair to our frog-legs-eating friends, these departments have declined full independence when asked via referendum. Including New Caledonia in 2018. They have opted for integration into the French Republic.

    and, within the lifetimes of many living people, fought unbelievably bloody wars in a failed attept to preserve some of its African colonies: most particularly Algeria.

    This I do agree with. The Algerian War in particular was appalling.

  2. So. What is the priority? Paying mainly wealth home owners a motza to tear their exiting houses down and build new houses in safety or enabling remote Indigenous inhabitants to own their own homes?

  3. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:11 pm
    Irene says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:05 pm

    Well, well, well.

    Will any of the usual suspects call out Irene for breaking the moratorium?

    —————————————————————-

    I didn’t know she did it till you pointed it out. Must be my poor comprehension skills at work again. Though technically if you have already done it. Why do you expect others to do it too?. That would be an unnecessary pile on in my opinion.

  4. BW: “If Hamas stopped hiding behind civilians the whole disaster would stop tomorrow.”

    Every Saturday afternoon I find myself driving along one of the main roads in Hobart to be accosted by a sizeable group of people chanting and waving placards and yelling at me to honk in support of a Free Palestine. Some of these people appear to be Palestinians, but most appear to be Anglos. I admire their persistence, even though I don’t agree with them.

    Hobart being a small place, I sometimes encounter people who attend these events. When I talk to them, it becomes clear that they see the Gazan people as a bunch of innocent victims without any leadership or defences. The Hamas leaders are very canny: they don’t appear frequently in the media making bloodthirsty threats and/or begging the West to have mercy on them. They hide in the background and thrust forward the Palestinian women and children. And many Westerners with left-wing inclinations have been buying this sort of stuff for decades.

    Ironically, the protesters in the West are hurting the ordinary Palestinian people more than they are helping them. Vision of large groups of Westerners chanting “Free Palestine” and “From the River to the Sea” is used by the Hamas leadership and other bad actors to persuade ordinary Palestinians that there is a realistic prospect of Western countries one day turning their backs on Israel and allowing the Palestinians to win back the entire country. This in turn discourages Palestinians from supporting a two state initiative. And plays into the hands of Likud and its more right-wing allies who also have no interest in a two-state solution and who, it would seem, have been inclined to help Hamas over the years in an effort to maintain Palestinian opposition to the concept.

    There’s much that I admire about David Pocock, but not what he’s been saying about this issue.

  5. The Department of Defense clapped back at Fox News host Jesse Waters on Wednesday after he said Taylor Swift could be a “psy-op” for the Pentagon.“I wonder who got to her from the White House or wherever,” Watters said on his show Tuesday night. “Who makes that initial handshake.”

    Waters was referencing a partnership between Swift and Vote.org intended to encourage young people to register to vote. The remark spawned conspiracy theories suggesting Swift could be a government asset or part of a broader information campaign.

    Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh shut down the speculation Wednesday in a statement to Politico. “As for this conspiracy theory, we are going to shake it off,” she said, a tongue-in-cheek reference to one of the pop star’s hits. “But that does highlight that we still need Congress to approve our supplemental budget request as Swift-ly as possible so we can be out of the woods with potential fiscal concerns,” she continued, adding more nods.

    Vote.org chief Andrea Hailey also pushed back on the implications on Wednesday. “Not a psy-op or a Pentagon asset,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Just the biggest nonpartisan platform in America helping young people register & cast their vote.

  6. ‘S. Simpson @ #1219 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 1:19 pm

    One seriously has to ponder that if the former apartheid white minority government of South Africa had the same level of influence and lobbying power that Israel has at its disposal whether South Africa would still be under white minority rule today.’
    ———————————–
    Pssst. Jews have this secret power not available to non-jews. You can read all about it in the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Plus, they use this secret power to eat christian babies.

  7. meher baba
    Ideally, it could become a day when we remember the 160,000 or so mainly British and Irish people who were shipped to Australia against their will, many of whom were able to built a better life here for themselves and their descendants. Sure, this was at the cost of Indigenous people being stripped of their traditional lands, but that wasn’t the convicts’ idea.

    I agree with this – this is what I do. But one can commemorate Australia Day without flaunting bullshit ‘patriotic’ paraphernalia – like inflatable Australian flag thongs. Every time I see these, I have the urge to find a pin.

  8. mb

    My general point is that Iran and its proxies and Israel both deserve the most extreme criticism possible.

    It is within the scope of the general discussion to look at proportionality. It is within the scope of this discussion to consider the application of the term genocide.

    What is NOT within the scope of this discussion is to leave one side, or the other, out of any particular aspect of the discussion.

  9. Shogun: “To be fair to our frog-legs-eating friends, these departments have declined full independence when asked via referendum. Including New Caledonia in 2018. They have opted for integration into the French Republic.”

    I recall a plebiscite in which the East Timorese voted to become part of Indonesia.

    And then there’s the case of Kim Jong Un’s excellent performance in elections.

    There was a vote in New Caledonia in 2021 in which 96 per cent voted in favour of remaining in France: although it should be noted that the pro-independence movement called for a boycott of that election. I would also note that the referendum held the year before (they seem to be quite regular occurrences) only recorded 53 per cent in favour of remaining in France, and would note that around one quarter of the current population of New Caledonia are French colonists. You do the maths.

  10. MABWM:

    Lembongan is Indah Sekali.

    Went snorkelling today. No manta rays but saw a couple of turtles.

    The beaches are incredible. People are lovely. I’ll be back. The lack or road rules is terrifying.

    It is like ‘Bali’ was in the ‘80’s.

    Are you here now?

    No, I’m in Vietnam at the moment but likely returning to Indonesia when my visa runs out next month.

    Ha, the roads are something else, yes. Clinging to the back of a bike while it’s cruising down the mountain and enormous trucks fly around the corners in your direction is an… experience.

  11. ‘Shogun says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:25 pm

    meher baba
    Ideally, it could become a day when we remember the 160,000 or so mainly British and Irish people who were shipped to Australia against their will, many of whom were able to built a better life here for themselves and their descendants. Sure, this was at the cost of Indigenous people being stripped of their traditional lands, but that wasn’t the convicts’ idea.

    I agree with this – this is what I do. But one can commemorate Australia Day without flaunting bullshit ‘patriotic’ paraphernalia – like inflatable Australian flag thongs. Every time I see these, I have the urge to find a pin.’
    ———————-
    Aw, diddums.

    The fact is that many elements of Australian achievement deserve the utmost respect and praise. Many do not. Puking over flag thongs is a pathetic response to a nuanced balance sheet.

  12. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh shut down the speculation Wednesday in a statement to Politico. “As for this conspiracy theory, we are going to shake it off,” she said, a tongue-in-cheek reference to one of the pop star’s hits. “But that does highlight that we still need Congress to approve our supplemental budget request as Swift-ly as possible so we can be out of the woods with potential fiscal concerns,” she continued, adding more nods.

    Vote.org chief Andrea Hailey also pushed back on the implications on Wednesday. “Not a psy-op or a Pentagon asset,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Just the biggest nonpartisan platform in America helping young people register & cast their vote.

    They should stop playing cute with it, take a page from Australia’s right-wing jerkasses, and sue everyone promoting the conspiracy theory for defamation. Treble damages for Fox “News”.

  13. Shogun: “But one can commemorate Australia Day without flaunting bullshit ‘patriotic’ paraphernalia – like inflatable Australian flag thongs. Every time I see these, I have the urge to find a pin.”

    I think they are an instance of the wonderful irreverance of Australians. If someone tried to manufacture such a product with a US flag on it, they’d probably have their factory burnt down.

  14. Pathetic Pete is calling for Australians to boycott Woolies because they have made a sound business decision NOT to stock Australia Day tack, which is mostly sourced from overseas.
    I hope the Federal Minister responsible for Industry interrupts his or her summer holidays to put Pathetic Pete in his place.
    The attack shouldn’t mention Australia Day – but focus on the thousands of jobs from direct and indirect employees which could be put at risk from such a stupid action and PP’s attempts to ruin commercial aspects of the Australian economy.

  15. I would suspect that current economic conditions have also played a part in dissuading people from wasting money on inflatable crap to celebrate the glorified piss-up that is Australia Day.

    One does wonder how this sacred day looks to people outside of Australia:

    “So, it’s January 26 today, where we celebrate the founding of our great country.”

    “Oh, cool, so what will you be doing?”

    “Getting shitfaced and listening to a playlist of terrible US indie-pop curated by a select group of inner-city hipsters. As is tradition.”

  16. Boerwar
    Aw, diddums.

    The fact is that many elements of Australian achievement deserve the utmost respect and praise. Many do not. Puking over flag thongs is a pathetic response to a nuanced balance sheet.

    My comment was tongue-in-cheek. I do not puke over inflatable Australian flag thongs. Nor do I pop them on sight. But I do not regard them as a symbol or act of patriotism.

  17. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:21 pm
    Entropy

    You are living up to your name again.

    ————————————————————–

    You certainly aren’t or are very selective on who you believe deserves the freedom your name implies.

  18. Chris Christie drops out of the presidential race, but not before making the baffling decision to screw over the one candidate who has even a slight chance of beating Trump:

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announced Wednesday that he was ending his campaign for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, marking the exit of the most outspoken critic of former President Donald Trump in the Republican primary.

    But first, Christie made a few unofficial remarks — off camera on a live microphone — skewering his now former GOP rivals.

    “She’s gonna get smoked and you and I both know it. She’s not up to this,” Christie could be heard saying in apparent reference to Haley.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/10/politics/chris-christie-ends-presidential-campaign-2024/index.html

  19. Asha: “Chris Christie drops out of the presidential race, but not before making the baffling decision to screw over the one candidate who has even a slight chance of beating Trump.”

    It’s not baffling, it’s entirely consistent with his past behaviour, particularly during the 2016 Republican primaries.

    I’m aware that he’s a pin-up boy for a lot of the anti-Trumpers, but at the end of the day he’s just the same attention-seeking narcissist that he has always been.

  20. Entropy: “You certainly aren’t or are very selective on who you believe deserves the freedom your name implies.”

    Are you suggesting that it doesn’t stand for “take poppers on Friday” as I had always assumed?

  21. You certainly aren’t or are very selective on who you believe deserves the freedom your name implies.

    _________________________________________________

    That’s unintentionally funny on your part. I did a google search because I had no idea what you meant. I presume, following my search that you mean Rudolf Steiner’s book The Philosophy of Freedom and not the Canadian acronym for Technical and Professional Operations Facilities. It could be worse. It could be the Tea Party of Florida.

  22. Didn’t the LNP try to make secondary boycotts (and promotion of such boycotts) illegal in their last term???

    Dutton has made a huge enemy in Woolworths (who I think employ more people directly than mining)…

  23. TPOFsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:57 pm
    You certainly aren’t or are very selective on who you believe deserves the freedom your name implies.

    _________________________________________________

    That’s unintentionally funny on your part. I did a google search because I had no idea what you meant. I presume, following my search that you mean Rudolf Steiner’s book The Philosophy of Freedom and not the Canadian acronym for Technical and Professional Operations Facilities. It could be worse. It could be the Tea Party of Florida.

    ——————————————————————-

    Actually i mean’t “eternal vigilance”. Though “Liberty” and “Freedom” are interchangeable in that quote.

    Quote on how not to achieve peace:
    “The ultimate weakness of violence is that it is a descending spiral, begetting the very thing it seeks to destroy. Instead of diminishing evil, it multiplies it. Through violence you may murder the liar, but you cannot murder the lie, nor establish the truth. Through violence you may murder the hater, but you do not murder hate. In fact, violence merely increases hate… Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”

  24. Sue Simpson @ 2.19pm
    The only difference in the governance of South Africa between then and now, is that the current ANC elite only govern for themselves and not for the Rainbow Nation.
    It has taken longer but they have managed to destroy the only economic power in Africa during their reign.
    All those lessons in Moscow have worked well for the comrades.

  25. Shogun says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 3:16 pm
    meher baba
    We’re talking about a country that still refuses to relinquish a number of its colonial possessions around the globe (French Guyana, Martinique, Gaudeloupe, French Polynesia, New Caledonia, etc., etc.

    To be fair to our frog-legs-eating friends, these departments have declined full independence when asked via referendum. Including New Caledonia in 2018. They have opted for integration into the French Republic.

    ————————
    Well, many in Lebanon would welcome a return of the French.

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/06/over-50-00-sign-petition-calling-for-france-to-take-control-of-lebanon

    August 6, 2020. We believe Lebanon should be placed under French mandate in order to establish clean and durable governance,” reads a petition that has collected more than 50,000 signatures.
    A petition to put Lebanon under a French mandate has garnered more than 50,000 signatures in 24 hours.
    President Emmanuel Macron landed in Beirut on Thursday morning to show support for France’s Middle East protege and former colonial-era protectorate after a massive explosion sowed devastation in the Lebanese capital…

  26. but not before making the baffling decision to screw over the one candidate who has even a slight chance of beating Trump

    Non-existently slight to resolutely firm no chance.

    Chris Christie can say whatever he wants about anyone else, Trump will be the Republican nominee.

  27. Melbourne curiosities: they queue for baked goods. Especially baked goods from Lune.

    The first time I saw this was in 2022 on a trip here and eating breakfast at my hotel noticed a line forming across the street at 6.30am. It was a queue for Lune. I noticed Melbournians still queueing for Lune goods the last time I was here a couple months ago, and I’ve noticed the same thing again this trip. And the queue is all day, every day.

    We don’t have Lune in Sydney, but when I was in Brisbane a few months ago there was a Lune bakery down the road from my hotel and I noticed that Brisbane people do NOT queue for Lune baked goods. So this appears to be a uniquely Melbourne thing.

    Why?

  28. Fess:

    As a long-time Brisbanite, this is the first time I’ve ever even heard of Lune. I guess it’s a popular thing in Melbourne and just another bakery in Brissy?

  29. Confessions:

    Non-existently slight to resolutely firm no chance.

    Chris Christie can say whatever he wants about anyone else, Trump will be the Republican nominee.

    Oh, I don’t disagree. But you’d think the guy who based his entire campaign around how important it is to stop Trump being nominated would want to do whatever he can to make it a bit more difficult for hi, even if it’s ultimately a futile cause.

  30. Confessionssays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 4:37 pm
    Melbourne curiosities: they queue for baked goods. Especially baked goods from Lune.

    The first time I saw this was in 2022 on a trip here and eating breakfast at my hotel noticed a line forming across the street at 6.30am. It was a queue for Lune. I noticed Melbournians still queueing for Lune goods the last time I was here a couple months ago, and I’ve noticed the same thing again this trip. And the queue is all day, every day.

    We don’t have Lune in Sydney, but when I was in Brisbane a few months ago there was a Lune bakery down the road from my hotel and I noticed that Brisbane people do NOT queue for Lune baked goods. So this appears to be a uniquely Melbourne thing.

    Why?

    ——————————————————————–

    I think it a general queue at bakeries on work day mornings. As lots of people like to eat fresh baked croissants etc for breakfast. On weekends the queues tend to be much latter. As these people tend to sleep in and go for brunch instead.

  31. Asha:

    Chris Christie’s run was simply a reputation rehabilitation project. Trying to put distance between his words in 2015-16 and all that’s happened Trump-wise in the time in between.

  32. Confessionssays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 4:56 pm
    Entropy:

    The queue was still going strong at 2pm. And I’d understand if it was a weekend, but my trip this time is mid week!

    ———————————————————————–
    I guess lots of people could still be on holidays?. Normally in the suburbs at least on normal workdays people go to local bakeries before work. While you get a second peak around lunchtime as people who work locally might go there for lunch. Though the demography of the CBD might be a bit different. Possibly a lot of well off retired people live now in CBD apartments. Which could make everyday like a weekend i guess?.

  33. Dutton’s comments might wash over well in regional and outback Queensland.
    Maybe not so much in Dunkley.
    The economy, stupid.

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