Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Monday miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. Still waiting for that nuclear business case…

    Lengthening periods of negative prices during daytime solar floods that are bringing down average grid prices are a signal to developers to invest in battery storage, said Simon Corbell, head of the Clean Energy Investor Group.

    “Generally, our position is that negative price episodes are a clear price signal to invest in storage, particularly for utility scale solar,” Mr Corbell said.

    Falling wholesale prices hit solar and wind projects hardest because – unlike coal and gas plants – they cannot choose to generate when prices are high, Dr McConnell said.

    Solar farms, which can only generate when rooftop solar is flooding the grid, had an average “capture price” in Victoria of minus $3/MWh in the December quarter, down from $18/MWh in the same quarter of 2022.

    The discount from average National Electricity Market prices for solar capture prices ranges from $30-$55/MWh, and is largest in Queensland, he said.

    Wind farms, which depend on weather patterns that do not always coincide with solar peaks, typically face discounts to NEM prices of $10/MWh in the larger eastern states, and $20/MWh in South Australia.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/power-price-plunge-complicates-the-energy-transition-20240110-p5ewc4

  2. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 5:43 pm
    Ha ha! No one taking Rex Douglas’ bait. So he dangles it out there again.
    _____________________
    Well you should. I heard the mum on ABC Radio on the way to work this morning. Unbelievably sad.
    You keep going on about raising a child with a disability.
    Makes a difference when it is Labor cutting the funding doesn’t it. You couldn’t give a shit now.

  3. Sprocket
    “Speaking of nuclear proponents, has anyone seen anything resembling a business case yet?”

    No. If there is one it is probably in the cabinet marked “thought bubbles” next to the business cases for West Connex and Snowy II 😀

  4. Don’t get me wrong. Most Australians are protective of their national identity and, if the debate becomes “pro and anti-Australia Day” the pro side wins every time. But, in a vacuum, this is just a tacky identarian stunt. Reminiscent of Dutton passionately sulking over the King not being on the $5 note earlier last year.

    If I were Labor, my response would be to avoid weighing in on the issue, itself – instead saying they’re more focused on making the more essential items in Woolies (and other stores) more affordable again (or something to that effect – keep it bread and butter – let the right languish in their culture war nonsense.)

    I agree. And that seems to be the approach the government is taking:

    Speaking earlier on Melbourne radio station Fox, Albanese distanced himself from Woolworths’ decision, saying his focus was making sure the supermarket did the right thing by its customers at the checkout.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-calls-for-boycott-of-woolworths-for-not-selling-australia-day-items-20240111-p5ewlh.html

  5. Eh, good on him for not being a total fascist, I guess. Makes him somewhat better than his primary opponents, sure. But talk about a low fucking bar! It’s like praising someone for not going on a murder spree.

    Looking at it from Australia, yeah it looks like a low bar, but in America it’s a big deal and I thought you would have realised that. Not to mention the fact that a lot of former Republicans since Trump’s infiltration and takeover of the party think he’s going to end up endorsing Joe Biden. Now, to go from standing behind Trump’s smelly Depends onstage to endorsing a Democrat, that is a big thing in American politics and I just thought your understanding of American politics was sophisticated enough to comprehend that much.

    If you think I’m somehow on Team Haley or something and pissed that he didn’t endorse her, you’re wrong. She’s worse than he is. All of the GOP candidates are various flavours of terrible, some just more than others. Frankly, anyone who is still willing to run under the Republican banner after the events of the last eight years has no place in public office.

    Erm, no I never suggested that. That’s why I made the claim about the pusillanimous nature of the rest of the Republican Primary cohort. I would have guessed that you could see that clearly as well.

    As far as still running under a Republican banner, I think it’s smart that Christie hasn’t just broken with the party completely, yet. That way he still gets to speak in front of Republican audiences about Donald Trump.

    And as for the rest of your rant, how heartless of you.

  6. Qantas intervening in the Voice campaign was what delivered the yes vote.

    Likewise everybody loves Woolies deciding for them what’s good and what isn’t appropriate.

  7. Morrison is hanging around because he can’t get a job outside of parliament. He can’t even release a memoir that is about his political career because his career is basically in the toilet, so he has to write a memoir about his religiosity. And even then he can’t market it solely in Australia because we’re just not into that kind of thing. So he has to reach out to an American market via a forward written by Mike freakin’ Pence of all people, just so his book might have some potential audience.

    If Scotty from Marketing could get a proper job he’d be out the doors of parliament house in a flash.

  8. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:22 pm
    “@LucyTurnbull_AO
    Seriously enough with the call to boycott a leading Australian company because of what it freely decides to sell (or not). Stop the culture wars! Stop cancel culture! Please make it stop.”

    It’s ok if it runs one way, but not the other. Got it.

    =====================================================================

    Not sure what you are getting at here. Can you show me where Lucy Turnbull was running the other way on boycotting businesses?.

  9. ‘Confessions says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:25 pm

    ….

    If Scotty from Marketing could get a proper job he’d be out the doors of parliament house in a flash.’
    —————————-
    I have had a glass of wine, so there is that. But when I read this sentence it reached my brain thus:

    ‘If Scotty from Marketing could get a proper job he’d be out the doors of parliament house in a flush.’

  10. For the slow learners, what this means is that renewable energy at scale is effectively free.

    And we are blessed with unlimited free renewable energy. Yes, there are distribution costs, initial capital installation, batteries for smoothing, overheads for retail, and profit margin for the conga line of companies and investors wanting this no-brainer energy solution.

    You would have to be a dumbarse to promote expensive and risky nuclear.

  11. Taylormade @ #1356 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 6:24 pm

    C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 5:43 pm
    Ha ha! No one taking Rex Douglas’ bait. So he dangles it out there again.
    _____________________
    Well you should. I heard the mum on ABC Radio on the way to work this morning. Unbelievably sad.
    You keep going on about raising a child with a disability.
    Makes a difference when it is Labor cutting the funding doesn’t it. You couldn’t give a shit now.

    Did I say that? Show me where I said that, or apologise for making that gross misrepresentation about me. I was simply commenting about Rex Douglas’ tactics,. not about the subject matter.

    Anyway, as is the case with these things (and I bet you heard the mother on 3AW, amIright?), the Minister will have been made aware of the mistake made lower down the chain of command and will more likely than not rectify the situation. I bet we don’t hear about THAT on Liberal radio 3AW though. 😐

  12. Dave from Wagga says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 5:48 pm

    “Dutton will be a backbencher by the time ANZAC day rolls along…”

    I’m happy to take $200 off you on 26 April 2024 for that bet.

  13. sprocket_,
    Did you see Twiggy Forrest in Warren today with Chris Bowen doing a turning of the first sod for a massive wind farm project he’s building there?

    If I were Gina, I’d be investing in Lithium and Nickel. 😉

  14. I spent time this afternoon walking through the botanic gardens. Just so lovely, it reminded me a lot of Adelaide. And the weather in Melbourne has been perfect. I’ve seen in Sydney they’ve had record high dew point and very oppressive conditions. Not looking forward to going home.

  15. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:08 pm

    “Keeping Dutton as leader condemns the Liberal Party to a generation in Opposition.”

    Yeah.

    They said that about Howard, Abbott, and Morrison.

  16. I hate to think what humans will do with unlimited free energy.

    Every other time they got mass cheaper energy of one sort or another they used it to maximize environmental degradation.

  17. Woolworths employs 215,000 Australians.

    Mining in total is about 264,000 Australians.

    Dutton has calculated that kissing one arse gives a marginal benefit over shitcanning a slightly smaller one.

    No wonder he is widely regarded as the worst Opposition Leader in living memory… by old money Liberals.

  18. FUBAR @ #1370 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 6:33 pm

    sprocket_says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:08 pm

    “Keeping Dutton as leader condemns the Liberal Party to a generation in Opposition.”

    Yeah.

    They said that about Howard, Abbott, and Morrison.

    Howard got voted out of his seat.
    Abbott got voted out of his seat.
    Morrison took the Liberals so far back in ’22 and lost so many seats to the Teals that it’s created a schism with formerly Liberal voters and put them in a parlous political position. But, yeah, go Howard, Abbott and Morrison! 😆

  19. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:16 pm

    “FUBAR – are you picking up some Aussie thongs and green and gold bucket hat for the big celebration?”

    I’m good for pluggers and prefer a cap – of which I have sufficient. But thanks for the thought. Looking forward to an absolutely cracking BBQ with a large group of families (many of who are unfortunately Carlton supporters) that always goes late into the night ending with excellent whiskey and cigars. We are delaying going to Rotto for the weekend so as not to miss it.

  20. Trump told EU officials that the U.S. will ‘never’ aid Europe if it is attacked

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/10/2216641/-Trump-told-EU-officials-that-the-U-S-will-never-aid-Europe-if-it-is-attacked?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

    “An AP VoteCast poll of 94,000 voters found that 59% of military veterans supported Trump in the 2020 election. This despite Trump’s oft-voiced disdain for servicemen and women wounded or killed in action (“losers” and “suckers” were the precise words he reportedly chose before canceling a visit to the Aisne-Marne American cemetery in 2018); his mocking disparagement of John McCain’s status as a former prisoner of war ( “I like people that weren’t captured”); and his extensive, well-documented history of expressing contempt for the military, apparently dating back to his high school days.”

    Ven: Baffling to put it mildly!

    “Politico EU reports that in a private meeting with EU officials held in 2020, Trump effectively guaranteed that the United States would renege on its NATO commitments if member states were attacked by Russia.

    As reported by Politico EU’s Eddy Wax:

    One of Europe’s most senior politicians recounted how former U.S. President Donald Trump privately warned that America would not come to the EU’s aid if it was attacked militarily.

    “You need to understand that if Europe is under attack we will never come to help you and to support you,” Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020, according to French European Commissioner Thierry Breton, who was also present at a meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

    “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO,” Trump also said, according to Breton. “And he added, ‘and by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense,'” Breton said about the tense meeting, where the EU’s then-trade chief Phil Hogan was also present.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/can-europe-survive-trump-ii/

    Ven: If Trump treats NATO partners like that what chance Australia has? And NATO treaty is in writing that US will interfere NATO member if it’s attacked
    On the contrary nothing like that is in writing when it comes to AUKUS, ANZUS.

  21. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:33 pm

    Yeah.

    They said that about Howard, Abbott, and Morrison.
    ————————–

    1998 Federal Liberal/national party did lose both on the primary and 2pp and 14 seats
    1996 federal election landslide win ,saved a one term Howard government

    despite winning 90+ seats in 2013 federal election , Abbott was prime minster for less than 2 years , the shortest serving term as a prime minister in over 3 decades

    Morrison had luck and was the accidental prime minister 2018 -2022 , lib/nats combined primary vote declined 5.7% at the 2022 federal election

  22. I never say never about any leader’s prospects of becoming PM. It just takes the right set of circumstances to make most leaders electable. Abbott probably never would have been PM if Labor hadn’t made the blunder of removing Rudd in 2010 and then subsequently kept shitting the bed. Things can always change.

    And, if there are any who’d never win, it’s the weak non-entities like Crean and Nelson. Not people like Dutton who, regardless of what you think of him, has a solid enough base of support.

    Also: let’s be real. While polling puts Labor in a position where it can still conceivably win comfortably enough at the next election, the Coalition’s position is hardly dead-in-the-water. And Dutton’s ratings aren’t exactly the worst an Opposition Leader has ever had.

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:37 pm

    You think I was referring to the end of their PMships?

    I really can’t help you.

  24. FUBAR:

    It’s rather inspiring to see just how much effort you put into defending the reputation of one of Australia’s most prominent sociopaths.

    Wait, no, I think I was looking for a different word than “inspiring.”

  25. Wat:

    Yup.

    Dutton isn’t nearly as unelectable as people like to think he is.

    And if he was that unelectable, it wouldn’t matter much anyway, because he would be replaced by someone else before the next election.

  26. Wat

    Indeed. The possibility of Labor imploding is greater than zero, if you look at history.

    Albo has been through it before in the front row – and has learnt from the experience. He is therefore a much more formidable adversary than his critics on the left and right estimate.

    And he has a formidable war chest, a talented front bench, and the weight of government behind him.

    Only a fool would be writing off multiple ALP terms at this point in time.

  27. The whole Australia Day controversy could be solved by moving the date to the last Monday in January. It would piss off the traditionalists and the woke mob at the same time. Everyone unhappy, nobody can be accused of letting one side win.
    But if we are going to have a national day and we should have a national day if only for the public holiday, it needs to be in summer. Summer is a cracking time for a national day and events can generally be held outside. Nobody really wants it before Christmas and too late makes it close to Easter and the public holidays in March.
    So the sweet spot is the end of January/start of February and that bookends the school holidays well. It should be a long weekend too.
    It was only 30 years ago that Victoria moved to the 26th too. Before that it was always a long weekend.

  28. Socrates: “No, not everything you say is correct MB. France moved away from the colonial empire mindset decades ago. Algeria was 70 years ago. De Gaulle died in 1970 FFS. Algerians in France today are the great-grandchildren of those who fought in the civil war.

    I’m certainly not defending France in the Algerian civil war. There were many atrocities on both sides. But France today is not refusing to “relinquish” colonies. It has offered them votes. The colonial populations want to stay in France.

    Most French colonies these days get full rights as French citizens and have seen how things have gone in neighboring former colonies of other nations who are on their own economically.

    New Caledonia has the most vocal independence movement, but all three referenda have failed. The locals want IN not OUT. The last time French Guiana and Martinique voted it was a decisive “Non” with over 70% against.
    https://www.france24.com/en/20100111-french-guiana-martinique-vote-against-more-autonomy

    France supports colonial departments financially. If French Polynesia ceased being French, it would immediately go from being one of the richest Pacific island communities to one of the poorest.”
    ———————————————————-
    So you’re basically saying that all the woke types around the world who bang on and on about “colonialism” being the most appalling thing in human history have got it all wrong. Colonialism is good for people and those who are still lucky enough to have it are inclined to embrace it?

    PS: Those “many atrocities on both sides” in the Algerian Civil War. They’re a bit like the many atrocities on both sides in Ukraine at the moment, aren’t they?

  29. Entropy says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:27 pm

    You’re not aware of the campaigns against banks for lending to mines and oil and gas? The campaign against the Sydney Festival for getting funding from “unacceptable” donors? There’s plenty of other examples.

  30. It took half an hour before seeing it on Channel 7 in Adelaide. Quite balanced.

    By the way has Mr Potato Head said to boycott Aldi? If not, why not.

  31. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:45 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:31 pm

    “Rinehart walks the talk with $1.7b lithium buy”

    https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/rinehart-walks-the-talk-with-1-7b-lithium-buy-20231219-p5eseq

    ————————————————————————

    When i said i had Lithium stocks (bought about 5 years ago) someone said “good luck catching that falling knife”. I think it might of been “Pied Piper”?. I wonder if he will say it about Gina’s buy in too.

  32. The reason Ukraine wants to join NATO is on the premise that once it joins NATO Russia won’t dare to attack Ukraine because Ukraine comes under US protection umbrella.
    I admit I don’t have any proof whatsoever but since it is a speculation I think the reason Hungary is using the tactics it is using against Ukraine from joining NATO is to delay the admission till after 2024 US election.

    Now imagine this scenario.
    Ukraine joins NATO and then Trump becomes POTUS again in 2024.
    Russia attacks Ukraine and Trump says that US won’t protect Ukraine even though it is NATO member and won’t supply any military hardware.
    In that scenario what do think EU can do?

  33. Under the leadership of Peter Dutton and David Littleproud the federal lib/nats have been in disarray
    2022 federal election lib/nats 78 seats
    since the 2022 federal election federal Lib/nats have lost 3 seats
    liberal party seat of Aston – where Peter Dutton captain pick was the candidate
    Liberal party member resigns due to the party position on the voice
    National party member resigns due to the party position on the voice

  34. Best thing about Australia day; it’s a holiday. If there are people that want to waste it on a culture war, good luck, but don’t expect the sane to get involved.

  35. Kirky:

    By the way has Mr Potato Head said to boycott Aldi? If not, why not.

    I suppose there’s a remote chance he’s tuned in enough with ordinary Australians to realise Aldi is the only supermarket chain that people can actually afford to shop at these days?

    Though on his current form, he’s probably more likely to suggest people start going to IGA!

  36. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 7:02 pm
    Entropy says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 6:27 pm

    You’re not aware of the campaigns against banks for lending to mines and oil and gas? The campaign against the Sydney Festival for getting funding from “unacceptable” donors? There’s plenty of other examples.

    =================================================================

    Was Lucy Turnbull involved?. As it was her statement you made the comment about.

  37. B S Fairman

    It was always the last Monday in January in WA when I was growing up and again when my boys were young.
    I think mid ’90s was when the holiday in WA was switched to January 26 whatever day of the week it was.
    The January long weekend was a symbolic end to the summer holiday.
    For the mums and dads who had gone already back to work (or maybe not had a break at all) it was a chance to get away with the kids.
    People in WA didn’t care much for Sydney-cenctric celebrations.

  38. Apparently Kmart didn’t sell Australia Day merchandise last year. And won’t this year. Aldi is not selling any either.

    Last January, Kmart announced it would not sell merchandise specific to January 26. “We respect that January 26 means different things to different people and we aim to foster an environment that is inclusive and respectful of both our customers and teams,” a spokesperson said in 2023.

    Dutton, with his media in support, is selective who he highlights. Has someone fooled Dutton here? What a dud. An embarrassment.

  39. Well obviously Dutton thinks that continuing to propagate conservative cultural wars has positive expected value electorally, or else he wouldn’t be doing it.

    In a fortnight’s time the entire mainstream media will be saturated with articles about woke people disrespecting Australia Day as “Invasion Day” and the like. With the hope that the polls will keep falling for Antonio-Italiano-Albanese who isn’t even a real Australian.

  40. Dutton will need to ramp up the rhetoric to include other large retailers.

    At this rate your average RWNJ without access to Coles will be reduced to barter with like minded types.

    Woolworths is not the first retailer to start moving away from Australia Day.

    Last January, Kmart announced it would not sell merchandise specific to January 26.

    “We respect that January 26 means different things to different people and we aim to foster an environment that is inclusive and respectful of both our customers and teams,” a spokesperson said in 2023.

    The ABC understands Aldi also will not be doing any special promotions for Australia Day.

    Best & Less told the ABC it stocked an “offering of children’s Aussie-themed clothing that has been available since last year”.

    However, Coles confirmed it would be stocking a “small range of Australian-themed summer entertaining merchandise throughout January”.

    The Reject Shop, Target and IGA have also been contacted for comment.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-11/woolworths-big-w-shops-australia-day-merch-sales-decision/103309612#:~:text=Last%20January%2C%20Kmart%20announced%20it,a%20spokesperson%20said%20in%202023.

  41. ‘meher baba says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 7:01 pm

    Socrates: “No, not everything you say is correct MB. France moved away from the colonial empire mindset decades ago. Algeria was 70 years ago. De Gaulle died in 1970 FFS. Algerians in France today are the great-grandchildren of those who fought in the civil war.

    I’m certainly not defending France in the Algerian civil war. There were many atrocities on both sides. But France today is not refusing to “relinquish” colonies. It has offered them votes. The colonial populations want to stay in France.

    Most French colonies these days get full rights as French citizens and have seen how things have gone in neighboring former colonies of other nations who are on their own economically.

    New Caledonia has the most vocal independence movement, but all three referenda have failed. The locals want IN not OUT. The last time French Guiana and Martinique voted it was a decisive “Non” with over 70% against.
    https://www.france24.com/en/20100111-french-guiana-martinique-vote-against-more-autonomy

    France supports colonial departments financially. If French Polynesia ceased being French, it would immediately go from being one of the richest Pacific island communities to one of the poorest.”

    So you’re basically saying that all the woke types around the world who bang on and on about “colonialism” being the most appalling thing in human history have got it all wrong. Colonialism is good for people and those who are still lucky enough to have it are inclined to embrace it?

    PS: Those “many atrocities on both sides” in the Algerian Civil War. They’re a bit like the many atrocities on both sides in Ukraine at the moment, aren’t they?’
    —————————
    Most colonies were and are based on racism. This was true of all of France’s colonies.

    The quintessential marker of a colony then was two classes of citizenship: colonizer and colonized.
    The package varied from european empire to european empire but the basic story was the same: the colonized did not have a vote; they were paid less; they did not have the freedom to associate, to move or speak publicly; they were subject to a separate justice system which applied separate laws; they had vastly less access to all public services such as health and education; their access to the wealth economy was restricted in all sorts of ways.

    None of these colonial elements apply to the relics of France’s colonial empire.

    However they do apply to Russia’s empire, to China’s empire and to India’s empire where some, or all, of these classic colonial markers apply right now.

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