Monday miscellany (open thread)

A preselection opponent for Tim Wilson in Goldstein, update on the Queensland by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat, and Eric Abetz announces a state comeback bid.

Three items of electoral relevance to emerge amidst the New Year news and polling drought:

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Stephanie Hunt, corporate lawyer and former legal adviser to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne, will seek Liberal preselection for Goldstein, which Tim Wilson hopes to recover after losing to independent Zoe Daniel in 2022. Wilson remains the front-runner, in the estimation of a further report in The Age today.

• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick, is the front-runner to succeed Annastacia Palaszczuk in her seat of Inala, the by-election for which is “tipped to be held in March”. Palaszczuk’s former deputy chief-of-staff, Jon Persley, had long been mentioned as her likely successor, but he has withdrawn from contention, saying the party’s gender quota rules played a “big factor” in the decision.

• Sue Bailey of the Sunday Tasmanian reports that veteran former Liberal Senator and conservative stalwart Eric Abetz will seek state preselection in the division of Franklin for an election due in June next year, assuming Jeremy Rockliff’s government is able to keep the show on the road that long.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,563 comments on “Monday miscellany (open thread)”

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  1. As far as I’m concerned the people have not voted against having the Voice, but they have voted against it being in the constitution.

  3. Entropy:

    So you are fairly stupid then. As the Voice referendum became Labor policy under Shorten and Albo took it to the 2022 election. It was widely publicised in the 2022 election as Labor policy too. The fact that anyone who is interested enough in politics to comment on political blog but didn’t know about one of Labor’s main policies when they voted last election. Suggest you either have very poor memory retention or you are being very dishonest about this.

    This.

  4. “The similarly parachuted-in labor candidate for Tangeny …”

    Who else wanted to run against Morrison’s closest mate Ben Morton?

    Nobody in their wildest dreams would have thought Tangney was winnable at the time he was endorsed.

    Good on Sam Lim having the guts to put his hand up. And a tick to whoever in WA Labor thought he’d be a good candidate.

    It won’t be easy holding it next time but I’m sure Sam will give it his best.

    The real interest is who the WA Libs pick to run against him. The Clan probably still working that out.

  5. Labor took the voice referendum to the 2022 election
    whether you Agree or disagree with what Albanese said
    he did keep the promise , it was up to the Aboriginal people to make their case
    Albanese did expect bipartisanship , but the lib/nats reneged

  6. Trump has had a very bad week. It started with the incredibly dense argument his lawyer posited in the DC Appeals Court, regarded as the second court to the SCOTUS, where he claimed that his client could, for example, murder a political opponent with impunity – the only fetter, the impeachment clause. Nearly every new service I’ve viewed over the past two days – even Fox – has harshly criticised this puerile argument.

    Next, an American Research Group poll (posted by Fox) has found that Haley’s closing the gap on Trump in the Jan, 23 New Hamshire primary, with him on 33%; Haley, 29%. And now that Christie (13%) has dropped out, it’s expected that the bulk of his support will transfer her. Iowa, though, is safely in Trump’s camp, primarily on the back of evengelicals.

    Then there was Judge Engoran refusing Trump’s request to address the court in his New York fraud case. He entertained his application at first but with conditions, the conditions being rejected by Trump, but not notified offically within the stated time span. The disrespect of his lawyers – whose first duty is to the court – will undoubtably lead to some of them being disbarred – the equivalent here of being struck off the rolls.

    And then on Jan, 16 Trump faces a huge compensation award after he further defamed E. Jean Carroll, after she was awarded $5M at first instance. The bulk of the damages she’ll be award are punitive, something that Guiliani knows a lot about, after he repeated his defamation against two innocent election workers – his epitah of “America’s Mayor” now irrevocably tarnished.

    I have to say that I take no enjoyment in witnessing the polorisation of the US polity. In spite of which, I’m willing to make a prediction. I agree with Victoria that Trump will not be re-elected, based on the predicate that with the cult leader in the slammer, the cult will soon fold.

  9. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 8:35 pm
    “Albanese did expect bipartisanship , but the lib/nats reneged”.

    Reneged on what?
    —————————–
    They agreed to the question which was put in parliament

    then majority of lib/nats voted against it at the referendum

  10. “Saying the proposed Voice Referendum was widely publicised is gilding the lilly, significantly…”

    The heck you talking about? Were you even in Australia last election?

    But also, you don’t seem to understand what the phrase “gilding the lily” means either.

  11. meher baba says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 7:46 pm

    Gee, there’s a lotta undeserved love for French colonialism on PB. …’
    ——————–
    I didn’t see any. But I did see total silence on Chinese, Russian and Indian colonialism.

  13. ”
    frednksays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 7:08 pm
    Ven
    Ukraine will not join NATO in 2024 unless there is a complete Russian collapse
    ”

    frednk
    I don’t know whether you ou are missing my point. But I reiterate that point again:
    If Trump becomes after 2024 election and decides not to support NATO countries, then if and when Ukraine joins NATO, it doesn’t protect them from Putin and/ it Russia.

    And if US doesn’t protect NATO countries, on what basis do you expect US to protect Australia if someone attacks Australia.

  16. Boerwar @ #1368 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 6:33 pm

    I hate to think what humans will do with unlimited free energy.

    Every other time they got mass cheaper energy of one sort or another they used it to maximize environmental degradation.

    Christ. Renewable energy is now bad because it is also cheaper?

    I used to wonder just how low you could go. I am beginning to think there is just no bottom.

  17. True-blue Aussie patriot Trevor Simpson says he is disgusted at Woolworths’ decision to de-range Australia Day merchandise, confirming he’ll now have to buy his cheap imported Chinese-made plastic genuine Australian flag at Coles.

    “Frankly it’s unAustralian,” Simpson said, furiously throwing a fridge-full of Woolworth’s food in the bin in protest. “When I celebrate Australia’s sacred day it’s my goddam right to do it while holding a piece of cheap merchandise made in a soulless factory in Shenzhen, distributed via a global system of shipping networks and sold to me by the Fresh Food People”.

    He said he supported Peter Dutton’s push to boycott the supermarket chain. “Australia has become a bunch of woke lefty Communists. If a Government can’t dictate what a privately-owned supermarket sells in its stores, then I don’t know what this country stands for anymore”.

    The Shovel.

  18. Is celebrating Australia day compulsory? Is a Dutton Government planning to regulate the product lines that a retail chain can sell?

  19. Scott @ #1455 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 8:28 pm

    Labor took the voice referendum to the 2022 election
    whether you Agree or disagree with what Albanese said
    he did keep the promise , it was up to the Aboriginal people to make their case
    Albanese did expect bipartisanship , but the lib/nats reneged

    Albanese did more damage to Indigenous Australian interests than anyone has done since the Frontier Wars.

  24. Is celebrating Australia day compulsory? Is a Dutton Government planning to regulate the product lines that a retail chain can sell?
    ___________
    Not CAN sell. MUST sell.

  25. Scott says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 8:39 pm

    Putting a question for a Referendum doesn’t mean you are committed to support the proposal.

    Lots of ALP voters voted against it as well.

  27. Player One

    ”Albanese did more damage to Indigenous Australian interests than anyone has done since the Frontier Wars.”

    You do get carried away sometimes. What, more damage than John Howard? More damage than the various “protection boards”? More damage than all of the various State and Colonial Governments of the 19th and 20th centuries?

    Labor took the Voice to the election and proceeded to go about fulfilling his promise once elected. State Governments, ALP and Coalition, came on board. For a while things were going well.

    You may criticise the Yes campaign but ridiculous statements like the above are not helpful.

  29. Mavis,
    When Trump’s lawyers Appeal to the Supreme Court, after the DC Appeals Court rules against his Immunity gambit (which they will), given the arguments his lawyers have used, it would be a very brave Supreme Court Justice who would rule in his favour for Absolute Immunity to allow a President to do whatever criminal act he feels like with legal impunity.

  30. One thing about Woolworths and the other major retailers:

    They have very little loyalty to particular products – their bottom line is what sells in sufficient quantities to meet their profit targets.

    Over the years I have seen products come and go, especially from smaller and/or newer manufacturers and importers. They would be there one day and gone the next. Demand for shelf space is intense, with suppliers paying for premium spots around eye level and willingness to subsidise discounted ‘specials’. If a major retailer finds that something is not selling well, they will reallocate that space to another supplier. That’s business. It’s what has obviously happened to Oz Day trinkets.

    If Dutton wants shops to sell this merchandise, he can always announce a policy for government to subsidise the sale of “patriotic products”. Or perhaps he could mandate the sale of such products. Or perhaps penalise people if they didn’t buy such products and display them on their front lawn or front door. A dictator’s dream.

  34. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 9:12 pm
    Scott @ #1455 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 8:28 pm

    Labor took the voice referendum to the 2022 election
    whether you Agree or disagree with what Albanese said
    he did keep the promise , it was up to the Aboriginal people to make their case
    Albanese did expect bipartisanship , but the lib/nats reneged

    Albanese did more damage to Indigenous Australian interests than anyone has done since the Frontier Wars.
    ________
    Moronic call but then not the first by you P1.
    I was fortunate as a white 5th generation Australian to sit in yarning circles with first Nations friends after the referendum listening to what the defeat of the proposal meant to them .

    I can tell you now that Albo was thanked in each of them for trying. The sadness and despair was directed at Littleproud and Dutton.

    I suggest you watch the SBS series and then think about the many injustices that first Nations Australian’s have received since the Australian wars.

    Nah actually your call is beyond Moronic.

  35. MelbourneMammoth @ #1400 Thursday, January 11th, 2024 – 7:13 pm

    Well obviously Dutton thinks that continuing to propagate conservative cultural wars has positive expected value electorally, or else he wouldn’t be doing it.

    In a fortnight’s time the entire mainstream media will be saturated with articles about woke people disrespecting Australia Day as “Invasion Day” and the like. With the hope that the polls will keep falling for Antonio-Italiano-Albanese who isn’t even a real Australian.

    WTAF is this about!?! I hope you’re being sarcastic. The Prime Minister is ‘not a real Australian’!?! Define ‘Real Australian”.

  36. C@tmomma says:

    Treaty Truth Voice Lidia Thorpe (who’s still nominally a Green in my book and whose voters were Greens voters in ’22) acolytes.
    ______________________

  37. Of course, Player One wouldn’t sheet home the blame for the Voice Referendum loss where it really lies. To Pete and Dud. That’s never been Player One’s mo.

  39. When I was young, Australia Day was very low key. It was celebrated on the Monday on or after the 26th. It was the last or second last day of school holidays. There were no fireworks or big celebrations. Such events that were held to mark the day were dull as ditchwater – politicians, Mayors and other worthies made speeches which got reported in the News but to which no one paid any attention.

    I subsequently found out that First Nations people had been protesting the day since 1938, but that wasn’t reported.

    It was only since the lead-up to the Bicentennial ~mid 80s that Australia Day started to become a big deal.

  40. It’s interesting. That even though we realise that Peter Dutton dropped his Woolworths diatribe to engage in some Culture Warring, we all helped him out by repeating it and talking about it all day. Job done by that man. 😐

  41. Oliver Sutton,
    So you think that not one Greens’ voter followed Lidia Thorpe’s lead to vote No? Prove THAT to me.

    And, quite frankly, 25% IS a lot.

  42. I’d love to hear Player One explain to a survivor of the stolen generations how the loss of the Voice referendum was the worst thing to happen to Indigenous Australians since the Frontier Wars.

  45. FUBARsays:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 8:32 pm
    Saying the proposed Voice Referendum was widely publicised is gilding the lilly, significantly.

    ———————————————————————-

    Are you also claiming you didn’t know it was Labor policy when voting at last election?.

    I thought everyone did as it was a stated policy. How much publicity it got really depended on how much the MSM wanted to give it though the election period. Every time Labor politicians were asked they restated the policy. They also often brought it up in their speeches too. I certainly new it was their policy to hold a referendum and i assume anyone who had any interest in politics at that time would have known too.

  46. For Indigenous Australians, not being classed as Australian Citizens and not being able to vote in elections, until the 1960s, no biggie to Player One.

  48. Of course, it depends on how big of a deal the MSM makes of Dutton’s faux pas. They’ll probably let it go through to the keeper. As they tend to do for mistakes made by Liberal leaders.

  49. FUBAR says:
    Thursday, January 11, 2024 at 9:26 pm
    Albo didn’t lose the Referendum. Apparently.

    _________________________________________________

    No he didn’t. The people who lost were the indigenous Australians who were yet again spat on by true blue Aussies such as FUBAR, who believe that you are not a real Australian unless your ancestors arrived after 1788.

  50. C@t: “So you think that not one Greens’ voter followed Lidia Thorpe’s lead to vote No? Prove THAT to me.”

    Huh? I don’t have to prove ‘THAT’ to you, as it’s a million miles from your blithe assertion of “Lots of Greens No voters”.

    (Hint: one voter is not “lots”.)

    Put those goalposts back where you placed them …

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