Roy Morgan remains the only regularly reporting pollster to have returned for the year on voting intention, but Essential Research presumably isn’t far off. Past experience suggests it should be at least another week before Newspoll is back in the game. Which leaves us with:
• UPDATE: There are now voting intention results for the YouGov poll mentioned below. Labor’s two-party lead is out to 52-48 from 51-49 in the final poll last year, from primary votes of Labor 32% (up three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 13% (down two), One Nation 7% (steady).
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll found Labor with a two-party lead of 51.5-48.5, after the Coalition led 51-49 upon the pollster’s return for the year a week ago. The primary votes were Labor 31.5% (up two-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down two), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 4.5% (down half). The poll was conducted from a sample of 1727 last Monday to Sunday.
• Pollster DemosAU, which produced accurate polling on the Indigenous Voice referendum, has a poll showing strong support for a republic referendum in the next five years, but also that any given model for a republic will have a hard time ahead of it. On the former count, 47% said yes and 39% no, a notable contrast with Freshwater Strategy’s finding of 55% opposition to a referendum “now”. On the latter, “direct election with open nomination” trailed the status quo 38-41; “executive president/US model” trailed 35-43; “ARM ‘Australian choice’ model” trailed 32-45; the 1999 referendum proposal trailed 27-48; and the McGarvie model, for all its impeccable credentials, did worst of all at 27-49. The aforementioned are summaries of more detailed question wordings that can be found on the methodology statement. The poll was conducted January 8 to 12 from a sample of 1300.
• YouGov has an Australia Day themed poll finding 49% support for keeping the holiday as its present date, 21% for changing the date, and 30% favouring a “two-day public holiday that celebrates old and new”. Respondents were also which of three options was closest to their view concerning Peter Dutton’s call for a boycott of Woolworths and Big W: support for Dutton’s position, which scored 20%; support for Woolworths and Big W, which scored 14%; and “my main concern with supermarkets now is excessive price rises rather than this issue”, accounting for the remaining 66%. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1532.
Other news:
• Hayden Johnson of the Courier-Mail reports the by-election for Annastacia Palaszczuk’s seat of Inala simultaenously with Queensland’s local government elections on March 16, and that the Liberal National Party is expected to field a candidate for the safe Labor seat. Labor’s candidate is likely to be Margie Nightingale, former teacher and policy adviser to Treasurer Cameron Dick.
• Liberal preselection nominations have closed for Kooyong and Goldstein, where Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson were respectively defeated by teal independents in 2022. As previous reports indicated, Kooyong will be a four-way contest between Amelia Hamer, Susan Morris, Michael Flynn and Rochelle Pattison, with Hamer boasting the support of Frydenberg. In addition to Wilson and the previously reported Stephanie Hunt, the Goldstein preselection will also be contested by IPA research fellow Colleen Harkin. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports the preselections are likely to be held shortly after the Dunkley by-election.
• Dan Jervis-Bardy of The West Australian reports Patrick Hill, Canning mayor and former police officer, and Howard Ong, a Singapore-born IT consultant, will seek Liberal preselection in Tangney, where the party suffered one of its worst defeats of the 2022 election at the hands of Labor’s Sam Lim. The report says the former member, Ben Morton, is understood to have ruled himself out. It also relates that Senator Michaelia Cash is marshalling support for Moore MP Ian Goodenough in the face of a preselection challenge from former Stirling MP Vince Connelly.
Paul Volker, as a Democratic Federal Reserve Chair, raised interest rates to 20% to address inflation
Simply, inflation is consistent with the economic cycle – and at those points Central Banks respond as did Volker
The reason is the damage inflation inflicts
By raising interest rates, Central Banks seek to slow economic activity, to slow spending and, by consequence, to see the unemployment figure increase
So there is pain across the community
These pains are not particular to Australia as inflation is not particular to Australia at these points in the economic cycle
And that includes such items as rental
The headlines elsewhere in regards rents are the same as they are in Australia
Those complaining at the increases in cost of living due to inflationary pressures from the World of a Pandemic impacting manufacture and logistics to geopolitical events impacting food and energy supplies to increasing interest rates need to consider the alternative
What would be the impact of inflation becoming entrenched and feeding off that entrenchment?
So Central Banks do what they do – using the blunt instrument of interest rates because Volker showcased that that response works
Into this equation is the length of time to arrest and turn increasing inflation – so incremental interest rate increases over what period of time to stabilisation and then reduction, both dictated by inflation
It is now over 2 years into the incremental (because interest rates are not increased by 8% in one move to address the peak of this cycle) tightening bias, inflation moderating but remaining “sticky” hence the Markets reassessment as to when interest rates will be reduced everyone feeding off data and the utterances of Fed Reserve members
There is an industry of complaining – including that government should act contrary to Central Bank actions thru feeding inflation
Support should be afforded to those who lose their jobs across these cycles – and we have a Social Security regime to accommodate this (which is why we pay tax).
Where my objection is is that those complaining do not address the core issue being the impact of entrenched inflation and the self feeding off that entrenched inflation – and this includes the current Federal Opposition and their media (including the ABC)
They should google Paul Volker
What Volker showed is that this response works – to the long term benefit of all
There is a big difference between Australian authorities seeking to freeze the assets of an accused criminal who has fled overseas and a civil dispute in Australia between two parties over alleged defamation. What may constitute defamation under Australian law may, or may not, constitute defamation under French law. In any case, would the French authorities really care about such a dispute in Australia?
“In any case, would the French authorities really care about such a dispute in Australia?”
Does it really matter they are trying to use power and the legal system to crush her. No legal tool better than defo to leverage money and power to crush people you don’t like. But any legal process anywhere can be so deployed.
Bias at the ABC does matter because they are the publicly funded media and have legislation and a charter that requires it to be unbiased.
So, they really shouldn’t be favouring the Liberal Party and their IPA shills and Liberal propaganda media outlets then. 😐
While liberal on liberal violence is a truly beautiful thing to see, surely they were smart enough to put any assets in a structure, or person, that doesn’t go down with them.
Are Swiss bank accounts useful anymore? Or perhaps the Cayman Islands?
Citizen: According to some the top 10 tax havens include corporate-focused havens like the Netherlands, Singapore, Ireland, and the U.K., while Luxembourg, Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands, and Switzerland feature as both major traditional tax havens and major corporate tax havens.
I wonder who’s paying Reynold’s legal costs, or is she funding this herself? Maybe when you consider yourself the victim you don’t care about the cost.
WeWantPaul says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:23 pm
Any lawyer worth their pay will use look through provisions to target such strategies.
“Any lawyer worth their pay will use look through provisions to target such strategies.”
Well it is decades since I was that kind of lawyer, but any good lawyer knows the look through provisions and takes them into account in determining the structure.
citizen says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:09 pm
“In any case, would the French authorities really care about such a dispute in Australia?”
Yes.
“Securing assets against private parties
Claimants can apply to the court to be granted the authorisation to perform interim attachments on any property belonging to the defendant, provided they show that:
their claim is established prima facie: claimants must show that they have a standing claim against the defendant; and
there is a risk that they will not be able to collect their debt: this risk can be objective (the defendant’s poor financial situation) or subjective (the defendant’s willingness not to pay).31
This application, which is ex parte, can be made either before the beginning of the proceedings on the merits, or in support of pending proceedings in France or abroad.”
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ac38efc4-ca4f-4835-b583-cbfd01aaab98
And – they have pretty strong defamation laws – but that’s irrelevant as the claim is already made here.
FUBAR says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:17 pm
I do not understand why the Pollsters and the Australian Republicans do not offer voters the model of cutting all ties with the Monarchy but maintaining the current system.
Change the name from Governor to President if they want.
The PM and Premiers still appoints the GG/President who retains all the powers and duties.
It is an easy change. We end up with and Australian Head of State and everything keeps trucking along as is.
Why won’t they put that up?
We have a very good system. Why change it significantly when a simple change will achieve what most people want?
_______________________________________
That was the essence of the 1999 referendum. It lost.
So tweets and Instagram posts…
Appears to be a bit more to it than just defo – breach of shut up clause…
Linda Reynolds is suing Brittany Higgins over social media posts
Lawyers for Senator Linda Reynolds contacted Brittany Higgins in early July, advising her to remove the allegedly defamatory posts or potentially face legal action.
Reynolds will seek aggravated damages plus interest and costs, and an injunction restraining Higgins from publishing further allegedly defamatory material.
In a writ lodged in the West Australian Supreme Court on Monday, Higgins is accused of posting defamatory material about the senator on her Instagram and Twitter accounts.
The posts were allegedly published on 4 and 20 July, according to the document seen by AAP.
The senator and Higgins entered into a deed of settlement and release in March 2021, which contained a “non-disparagement” clause.
Reynolds will seek aggravated damages plus interest and costs, and an injunction restraining Higgins from publishing further allegedly defamatory material.
Lawyers for the senator contacted Higgins in early July, advising her to remove the allegedly defamatory posts or potentially face legal action.
Higgins tweeted in response that she was considering her legal options.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/reynolds-vs-higgins/bqnd4wal7
TPOF says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:51 pm
“ That was the essence of the 1989 referendum. It lost.”
I’m not going to get into a back and forth on this but, no, it wasn’t. The GG was to be replaced by a President appointed by 2/3 majority of Parliament, not the PM,
Hey everyone, check out my new wheels.
“Higgins tweeted in response that she was considering her legal options.”
One would hope, if one was backing the underdog liberal type over the powerful one, that Ms Higgins and her boy were obtaining and acting in accordance with excellent legal advice.
Because what is even better than liberal on liberal violence is liberal on liberal violence when the bully loses.
How about dismissal?
Albo Starmer same same
The Australian Taxation Office is threatening to crack down on the use of tax minimisation schemes by big four partners, as a Senate inquiry prepares to probe the tax arrangements of executives at professional firms.
The agency foreshadowed “increased enforcement action” ahead of new guidelines set to govern the use of controversial income-splitting schemes, warning it was “concerned about high-risk arrangements in all professional firms”.
The old guidelines on the use of the schemes – which allow partners to assign a portion of partnership income to family members – were suspended amid concerns about an “inappropriate diversion of income” from partners, the ATO said in a statement. New rules will start in July.
Labor senator Deborah O’Neill told AFR Weekend the tax ploys were “an affront to basic principles of equality” and their “reported widespread use” by partners was evidence of the big four’s “apathy to the importance of fair taxation”.
Partners can take advantage of two income-splitting measures. The first, known as an Everett assignment, is a tax reduction strategy in which partners assign a portion of their stake in the partnership and its future income to others, usually a spouse, to cut their own overall tax bill.
The second common arrangement involves the use of a service trust, controlled by the firm’s partners, to provide labour, recruitment and other services to the partnership at a marked-up price, which results in a reduction of taxable partnership income. Profits from the trust can then be distributed to a family company, trust or spouse.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/ato-to-crack-down-on-big-four-partners-income-splitting-20240108-p5evua
William,
Yes, the ability to dismiss is part of the Reserve Powers. The apolitical circuit breaker role is important.
Dismissal of the GG/President, I mean.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/19/friday-miscellany-culture-war-edition/comment-page-1/#comment-4210635
I disagree. A 3-vote process is likely to produce voter fatigue. The generic “do you want a republic” question is a superfluous ARM we want to win a vote scheme. It is totally non-binding on voters in the subsequent actual referendum with a model.
The actual lesson for the republic referendum from the Voice Referendum is that holding a referendum that is not concurrent with a general election is a fool`s errand (not that that lesson wasn`t already shown by history). That makes the ARM 3-vote model even less practical, stretching it over 3 general elections.
William
At the discretion of the PM as it currently is.
Keep everything the same as now just excuse the Monarch from the Constitution.
The risk to the ALP/Greens of a referendum along with an election is that those who will vote no to a republic could also change their vote to the Coalition at the same time. Would only need 2% and then we have another 9 years of incompetence and corruption.
But Buckingham Palace is a speed bump in that process, a fact that looms large in considerations of 1975. It was this point of detail that the McGarvie model sought to accommodate — and the DemosAU poll did ask about it.
I don’t dislike the McGavie model but think that it is best to keep the change as simple as possible.
Could the Buckingham speed bump have been worked around by a PM who didn’t want to be removed? Who knows? Was Whitlam considering sacking Kerr?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/01/19/friday-miscellany-culture-war-edition/comment-page-2/#comment-4210671
Anything where the president is chosen by anyone other than the electorate at large will be voted down as a politicians` republic.
So it is a directly elected president or no president at all, at least if the president is to have a constitutional function (i.e. not a subsequently legislated powerless figurehead tacked on to an otherwise presedentless system).
”
bcsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:37 pm
I wonder who’s paying Reynold’s legal costs, or is she funding this herself? Maybe when you consider yourself the victim you don’t care about the cost
”
She is from WA. Connect the dots……..
Tom,
We already have a Politician appointment. And that is a well supported model.
”
William Bowesays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Hey everyone, check out my new wheels
”
It doesn’t appear to be EV.
Nice vehicle William but it needs a DO35 tow hitch.
FUBAR says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 4:20 pm
Tom,
We already have a Politician appointment. And that is a well supported model.
__________________________________________
Not well enough supported. (Although I’m a strong supporter).
When I said that was the essence of the 1999 referendum proposal, I used the word “essence” to cover off relatively minor differences, such as which politicians appointed the Head of State.
The essential split in 1999 was whether the HoS would be appointed by popular vote or by a select group of politicians, whether the PM and Cabinet or the Parliament. It was not which politicians would appoint the HoS.
It is clear from polling that regardless of what a principled position might be from a moral and ethical standpoint, >50% of Australian adults still oppose changing the date of the national holiday from January 26. This number will probably continue to fall but for the time being it is a clear majority. As long as it remains above 45-50%, it can, and will, be used as a weapon by the conservative nationalist Coalition every year with positive electoral expectation. I suspect it will still be so at the end of this decade.
The PM has the checks and balances of parliament on them. Maybe a Governor of Australia could have the checks and balances of the High Court on them. So for certain powers, like sacking a PM, it would need a majority vote of the High Court too. Backing whatever reason the Governor believed it was right to do so.
Podcast … Dominic Nicholls … Taipan disposal … very critical …
You guys are missing the number plate. 😉
“You guys are missing the number plate. ”
It was the first thing I looked at I laughed out loud.
pied piper says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Fix this’: PM under fire over terror ruling
Coalition and Jewish leaders have turned up the heat on Anthony Albanese to formally declare the Hamas massacre as a terrorist act, describing the lack of action as ‘perplexing’.
Simples he is a closet Hamas sympathizer.
———————————————————————————-
Or as TPOF would say:
He supports raping women and murdering babies.
Killer cop Roger Rogerson hours from death, life support turned off
Notorious crooked killer cop Roger Rogerson is in his final hours after suffering a brain aneurysm during a medical episode in his prison cell.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nsw/killer-cop-roger-rogerson-hours-from-death-life-support-turned-off/news-story/980fde766ccd2648066916d9d86de722
____________________
An inglourious end…
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 12:22 pm
BK , I thought it ridiculous that the Adelaide test was played midweek and not on the weekend. It’s almost like they’re encouraging the death of test cricket.
———————————————————————————
I was watching and people were lining up at the gate to get in knowing it was all but over. A day/night match with decent days of the week would have substantially filled a 50,000 capacity stadium even against a substandard competition. They may have screwed over Test cricket but their intention was to crew over Adelaide.
Perth was a joke and Sydney just gets rained out. What is wrong with Cricket Australia?
William Bowe says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Hey everyone, check out my new wheels.
___________________
We’re not taking that to the meet. I’ll drive.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 4:56 pm
Killer cop Roger Rogerson hours from death, life support turned off
___________________
The Dodger meets his end.
Richard Roxborough did some sort of job portraying him in Blue Murder. Not that he was alone, that whole ensemble was brilliant.
The situation at the moment is that the Governor General is effectively appointed by the Prime Minister alone. He doesn’t have to consult anybody, not the Monarch, not the cabinet, not the Parliament or States and definitely not the people.
Since 1975, when it became clear that the position held actual power, you can be that every GG appointee has been politically vetted*.
So the 1999 model was a “politicians republic”, what we have now is a “Prime Minister’s Governor Generalate”.
P.D did Scotty secretly appoint himself GG?
* I have no way or knowing, but did Tony Abbott or Scott Morrison ever make a non-political appointment?
Or as TPOF would say:
He supports raping women and murdering babies.
______________________________________________
No I wouldn’t say that. I also think that Albanese and Wong have handled a very difficult and challenging situation well.
And I didn’t say that about you, despite your obsessive belief that I did. I was, however, referring to a group that you seemed to support that engaged in that conduct. There is a difference even if you insist on playing the victim.
Oh look it’s TPOF, doing what he always does, getting along really well with others and having an enjoyable time!
nathsays:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Oh look it’s TPOF, doing what he always does, getting along really well with others and having an enjoyable time!
=========================================================================
To be fair Rainman started this current exchange. It would be best to ignore it and hope they both don’t take it any further.
Scott says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 2:08 pm
Entropy says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 2:02 pm
They make a lot more playing 20/20 than tests though. If you did that there would be lots of tanking. As players would be trying to be worse so they could get the big bucks and not be selected in the test squad
—————————————
Thats the problem 20/20 which is mainly for entertainment has harm cricket more then good in my opinion, players who should be playing are the ones who prefer that style of cricket full-time
20/20 is not competitive as other aspects of cricket like tactical for a long period of time , bowling , fielding , batting and all round fitness for over days and days
———————————————————————————-
I love test cricket. The first match I ever seriously watched was against England. We had Lillee and Thompson. They had John Snow. Greg Chappell hit a century in his first match for Australia. The more experienced Ian Redpath did the same.
Having said that, it’s really really really really really hard to break into the First Eleven so I don’t begrudge the many other talented players a chance to make a quid in the very short form of the game.
William
What are your views of Australia adopting the Irish (and Finnish) model of republic, with an elected President as head of state with the power to dismiss the government, but no executive powers to run the country?
Effectively it is the existing system with an elected GG replacement and reserve powers defined (and limited). Is this similar to one of the models you have proposed?
nath says:
Friday, January 19, 2024 at 5:10 pm
Oh look it’s TPOF, doing what he always does, getting along really well with others and having an enjoyable time!
______________________________________
Oh look it’s Nath doing what he always does. Bullying.
Can someone tell me why Kalgoorlie isn’t chock-a-block full of rooftop Solar 😡 or does voting notional make you hate renewables that much that you’d rather die to own the inner city lefties…
“Kalgoorlie faces a week without electricity amid heatwave due to WA power outages”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/19/wa-power-outage-blackout-kalgoorlie-weather-temperatures-heatwave