Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)

Reports suggest the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook is likely to be held in April, with a contested Liberal preselection looming.

A second federal by-election is now in the works after Scott Morrison announced his retirement from politics yesterday, adding to the pile of looming electoral events canvassed in the previous post:

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook could be held concurrently with the Dunkley by-election on March 2 if Morrison formalises his resignation this week, but Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports it will “not be held until April at the earliest”. Liberal sources quoted by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald said Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce would nominate for preselection, with one factional moderate rating him a “shoo-in”. However, Simon Kennedy, who ran unsuccessfully for Bennelong in 2022, was also likely to run and would have backing from conservatives. Also mentioned was Gwen Cherne, “who works in veterans affairs”, and former Premier Mike Baird, though it seems entreaties to him are likely to fall on deaf ears.

• The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 51.5-48.5 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 5% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.

• The procedure for a South Australian state redistribution has commenced with the call for submissions, which are due by April 19. Draft boundaries are scheduled for publication on August 15, with finalisation to follow in November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,806 comments on “Mid-week miscellany: Cook by-election, Morgan poll, SA redistribution (open thread)”

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  3. That is hilarious! Out of the frying pan and into the fire? I wonder who was on the independent panel that came up with the recommendation for the next ABC Chair?

  4. Oops – Guthrie was MD, not Chair. But the point is still valid – why do we continue to appoint ex-Murdoch employees to senior ABC positions?

  6. I was coming here to ask the same – why, for the love of god, would you appoint a former Murdoch exec to head the ABC to replace Buttrose?

    This business-as-usual is the complete opposite of the management shakeup the ABC needs.

  8. If anyone is following NATO news, a report in the NYT says that Sweden has been approved for membership by Turkey. They also write, “Hungarian officials have said they would not block Sweden’s bid if Turkey approved it, but the timing of Hungary’s decision was not immediately clear, nor were the reasons for its foot-dragging.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/world/europe/turkey-sweden-nato.html

    I can share the link if anyone is interested in the details, which, apart from the bit about Turkey, provide a rehash of the situation.

  9. ”
    Oliver Suttonsays:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 8:49 am
    PK on RN says that Kim Williams converted to Judaism.

    That could be tricky.
    ”

    Whatttt..?
    Like Biden?

  10. Williams resigned from Newscorp over a decade ago.

    There seems to have been a proper selection process.

    So, a bit of a tempest in a tea cup at this stage.

  11. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 8:16 am
    Just out of curiosity, what does a Non-Executive Vice Chairman do, or in fact need to do?

    The CEO’s chauffeur found himself at a conference of bigwigs.
    When asked what his position was, he replied “I’m chairman of the steering committee”.

    So it is for Scotty from Marketing.

  12. ”
    Lars Von Triersays:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 8:57 am
    You all know that Kim Williams is married to Gough’s daughter don’t you ?
    ”

    So what?
    Because Whitlam is hero of ALP, it doesn’t mean his daughter also is champion of Labor causes.
    How many politicians daughters rebelled against their dad’s?
    For example, daughters of
    Reagan, Hawke, Wran, Bush Jr……

  13. If not already noted:

    Morrison will also be taking up a position with Dyne Asset Management – a new Australian-founded US-based military venture capital firm.

    He will join Trump administration secretary of state Mike Pompeo in this role.

    Dyne was launched last October by Australian investment banker Matthew Kibble and former US Navy officer Tom Hennessy with an AUD$157 million capital base to invest in AUKUS related technologies

    (guardian live stream)

  15. Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 9:17 am
    Williams resigned from Newscorp over a decade ago.

    There seems to have been a proper selection process.

    So, a bit of a tempest in a tea cup at this stage.

    ________________________________________

    There is a huge amount of pearl clutching going on here today. Meanwhile in the real world, people will start to be focussed on how much more in their pay-packets they will get from 1 July.

  16. ”
    Griffsays:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 9:06 am
    That is hilarious! Out of the frying pan and into the fire? I wonder who was on the independent panel that came up with the recommendation for the next ABC Chair?
    ”

    Is Ita Buttross chair of that independent panel?

  17. I am rethinking my opposition to AUKUS.

    I now think $368 billion was actually a pretty good deal if it allows us to finally get shot of Morrison.

  19. Greensborough Growler @ #60 Wednesday, January 24th, 2024 – 9:17 am

    Williams resigned from Newscorp over a decade ago.

    There seems to have been a proper selection process.

    So, a bit of a tempest in a tea cup at this stage.

    And he has quite an impressive arty farty cultural pedigree. Wiki worth a read. I’d have him running the show any day over Buttrose, seriously shallow imo. Talk of her taking over the SOH job. Please no.

  20. Late Risersays:
    Wednesday, January 24, 2024 at 8:16 am
    Just out of curiosity, what does a Non-Executive Vice Chairman do, or in fact need to do?
    _____________________
    We have a Board of Directors at my work.
    A Chairman and then 5 Non-Executive Directors.
    A Non-Executive Vice Chairman would sit in between them.

  22. We have a Board of Directors at my work.
    A Chairman and then 5 Non-Executive Directors.
    A Non-Executive Vice Chairman would sit in between them.
    —
    Sorry. An amusing cartoon leaps out of those words. If you put them in a straight line, a Chair with 5 Directors have five positions open between them.

  23. “Williams resigned from Newscorp over a decade ago.

    There seems to have been a proper selection process.

    So, a bit of a tempest in a tea cup at this stage.”

    Yeah but he wasn’t just a journo was he (it’s hard to find a journo in this country who hasn’t worked for the Evil Empire at some point because it’s like half the journalism jobs in the country), he was a big cheese . Like others I look serious askance at a Labor government installing an ex Murdoch lieutenant in the ABC. I can only think that they think he’s personally an alright dude (now, at least) and that he is a shield against Liberal complaints against the ABC, they can hardly accuse Kim Williams of being a lefty plant. But it’s like the decision to keep on Kathryn Campbell after the change of government – it didn’t make sense at the time and was proven to have been dumb with benefit of hindisght.

  24. Membership of the nomination committee which recommends ABC and SBS board appointments
    Ms Helen Williams AC (Chair)
    Ms Catherine Liddle,
    Professor Derek Wilding
    Ms Daryl Karp AM.

  25. @Rex: 99% of the population doesn’t care who’s appointed head of the ABC, and Albo isn’t trying to distract from the s3 decision, he wants to sell that…. not really a dead cat situation.

  26. Arky @ #23 Wednesday, January 24th, 2024 – 8:43 am

    “Williams resigned from Newscorp over a decade ago.

    There seems to have been a proper selection process.

    So, a bit of a tempest in a tea cup at this stage.”

    Yeah but he wasn’t just a journo was he (it’s hard to find a journo in this country who hasn’t worked for the Evil Empire at some point because it’s like half the journalism jobs in the country), he was a big cheese . Like others I look serious askance at a Labor government installing an ex Murdoch lieutenant in the ABC. I can only think that they think he’s personally an alright dude (now, at least) and that he is a shield against Liberal complaints against the ABC, they can hardly accuse Kim Williams of being a lefty plant. But it’s like the decision to keep on Kathryn Campbell after the change of government – it didn’t make sense at the time and was proven to have been dumb with benefit of hindisght.

    Kim Williams is such an intransigent right wing warrior that he was a conscientious objector to serving in the Vietnam war.

  28. Late Riser says,
    Sorry. An amusing cartoon leaps out of those words. If you put them in a straight line, a Chair with 5 Directors have five positions open between them.

    Weren’t they all Scott Morrison?

  29. Hmmm … not sure Kim Williams is an appropriate fit for turning around a troubled and demoralized ABC …

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/making-the-wrong-enemies-how-williams-was-cut-down-at-news-20130809-2rnsx.html

    News Corp Australia announced that Williams had resigned, just 20 months into the job. In a letter to staff, Williams thanked his colleagues, while admitting that “the issues encountered have at times been frankly really confronting”.

    Confronting, indeed. In his short and tumultuous tenure, Williams had managed to not only alienate some of the company’s most senior editors, most notably Chris Mitchell, editor of The Australian, and Paul Whittaker, editor of The Daily Telegraph, but infuriate Lachlan Murdoch, the man who had originally got him the job.

    …

    His temper is also legendary. “He flies into rages when he totally loses control of himself,” says one man who worked closely with him at Foxtel. “Face red, spittle coming out of his mouth, tears, the whole nine yards.”

    His ability to make enemies brought him down at News, but his brains will no doubt lift him back up.

    If Williams remains true to form, we could see a bloodbath of senior ABC personnel. I don’t know if the ABC will be better at the end of it, but I can’t help wondering if someone is making a statement with this appointment. Retribution for the recent overwhelming staff vote of no confidence in ABC management, perhaps?

  30. Williams’ extensive resume includes helming the Australian Film Commission, Southern Star Entertainment, Fox Studios Australia, chairing the Copyright Agency, the Sydney Opera House Trust, the Sydney Symphony Orchestra, and was in 2014 also appointed as an AFL commissioner.

    He is also a former professional clarinettist and composer.

    I hope the ABC can get a tune out of him…

  32. On election night 2022 Kim Williams was overheard saying “we lost”, along with the Governor General and the head of the reserve bank.

  33. ajm: “Kim Williams is such an intransigent right wing warrior that he was a conscientious objector to serving in the Vietnam war.”

    The Vietnam War that ended more than 50 years ago?

    That Vietnam War?

  36. Knee jerk reaction by the PB usual suspects to Kim Williams appointment is pathetic.

    There is no better qualified and passionate person available to lift the ABC out of its torpor.

  40. sprocket and Lars,

    Australian society seems to be perpetually trapped in these mindlessly boring Culture Wars from both ends of the political spectrum.

  41. … Morrison has been telling sympathisers he needs a better salary than the basic pay for a backbencher of $217,000.’

    I can scarcely even imagine how bad a person must be with money if they are struggling to get by on over $200k a year!

  43. I’ve heard of Kim Williams. He seems OK but the Murdoch association is a bit of a worry. So too is the fact that Peter Dutton approves.

    His qualifications seem impressive. I understand that he was recommended by the selection committee, the one that the Coalition always ignores. As with all else, only one side is playing cricket.

    Anyway, we’ll see how he goes.

  45. And both his wives – one ex (Lette), one current (Dovey) – are good mates. You’ll see them swim at Boy Charlton when the Kathy Lette is in town. These are Sydney people. Good people. Well connected with the Arts, Media, and those who try to understand the other.

    Did I tell you my Dovey storey?

    My father had opened the then new Newsagency at Vaucluse, right at the tram stop on the crest of New South Head Road, as a sub-agency from Rose Bay. Vaucluse was expanding and the ‘run’ was getting too large. He’d talk with the ‘paper man’ in the early mornings, walking the dog, smoking his pipe. Anything to escape from his mother’s Salon I suspect. In his dotage, whenever, and every time, the Whitlams came on television, dad would say: ‘Oh, I remember when little Margaret Dovey would get off the tram and come into the shop after school and get a chocolate malted (milkshake). It must have been a milk bar thingy too. So many years later, I had occasion to speak with her, Mrs Whitlam, and begged her pardon, to tell her the story of little Margaret Dovey and the tram stop, and the milk shake after school. She looked down at me from her great height and said with a wry smile: ” I was never little Margaret Dovey.

  46. Asha

    ” … Morrison has been telling sympathisers he needs a better salary than the basic pay for a backbencher of $217,000.’

    I can scarcely even imagine how bad a person must be with money if they are struggling to get by on over $200k a year!”

    Morrison reportedly also complained he still had to pay a mortgage. He has been in Federal parliament 16 years, 10 of them as a senior minister or PM on $350K+. How has he not paid off his mortgage? He managed his own finances as badly as Australia’s.

  47. These S3 changes are a masterstroke. All Albo has to say is: ‘We promised to deliver these tax cuts in their entirety, and that, Mr. Speaker, is what we are going to do. Not to the top end of town* as Mr Dutton’s lot would do, but to the hard-working Australians and battlers in the outer suburbs and country seats that Mr Dutton purports to now represent…’

    * Mostly male, another masterstroke. Women will now flock to ALP as they’re the ones who’ll benefit greatly from these S3 changes.

  49. GG – Exactly. Which is why the “anti-woke” campaigns are not getting much traction. Sure, there is stupidity with some of the “woke” stuff, but carping on about it is boring.

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