A second federal by-election is now in the works after Scott Morrison announced his retirement from politics yesterday, adding to the pile of looming electoral events canvassed in the previous post:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook could be held concurrently with the Dunkley by-election on March 2 if Morrison formalises his resignation this week, but Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports it will “not be held until April at the earliest”. Liberal sources quoted by Alexandra Smith of the Sydney Morning Herald said Sutherland Shire mayor Carmelo Pesce would nominate for preselection, with one factional moderate rating him a “shoo-in”. However, Simon Kennedy, who ran unsuccessfully for Bennelong in 2022, was also likely to run and would have backing from conservatives. Also mentioned was Gwen Cherne, “who works in veterans affairs”, and former Premier Mike Baird, though it seems entreaties to him are likely to fall on deaf ears.
• The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 51.5-48.5 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32.5% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up half) and One Nation 5% (up half). The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675.
• The procedure for a South Australian state redistribution has commenced with the call for submissions, which are due by April 19. Draft boundaries are scheduled for publication on August 15, with finalisation to follow in November.
Of course Morrison was doing all he could not to alienate the conservative faction, while also getting rid of Abbott.
God, it is depressing to remember just how close the Liberals came to being kicked out after a single term. It really seemed at times like the Abbott government was just going to end up a little blip between extended periods of Labor rule.
Abetz accuses Abbott’s ‘close confidants’ Pyne and Brandis of stabbing Abbott in the back.
‘nath says:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:29 pm
Of course Morrison was doing all he could not to alienate the conservative faction, while also getting rid of Abbott.’
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Short-finned eel?
Pretty flawed and mediocre cast of characters IMO.
I hope they mention the party where Hockey broke the coffee table.
And Abbott had to use a fax machine to resign.
Asha,
Turnbull was always a favourite of the voters. Just not the entrenched Libs.
Loser Abbott told Turnbull to fuck off ‘with variations’.
Reynolds is taking no prisoners.
The Liar from the Shire lived up to his name in Nemesis tonight!
B.S. Fairman:
I wonder if the audio of him singing kareoke that night still exists.
Revenge is best served hot. Next week.
That is it for the night. Not a lot that is new in that lot but it serves as a useful and very occasionally even a truthful aide-memoire.
‘BK says:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:35 pm
The Liar from the Shire lived up to his name in Nemesis tonight!’
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yep
How thin skinned is Abbott.
He rolls MT and Turnbull cops it on the chin and remains personable.
When Turnbull returns the favor, Abbott cuts up rough. Total child.
Scott at 8.28 pm
“Phil Coorey the lib/nats propagandist , would unlikely know what the internal labor dunkley polling would be …”
Yet, eleven years ago, in Nov 2012, Coorey knew very quickly that Gillard had only two supporters in Cabinet for a motion to support Israel in opposition to any movement toward a Palestinian state, such a largely tokenistic movement being strongly advocated for then by her Foreign Minister Bob Carr and by Labor’s historically most energetic FM, Gareth Evans.
Gillard’s pro-Netanyahu supporters were Shorten and Stephen Conroy. Details in Carr’s Diary book.
BW,
Sounds to me they all pulled their punches.
Either defamation advice or Book deals in the offing.
Lars at 9.33 pm
“Pretty flawed and mediocre cast of characters IMO.”
Did you say that when they were in government?
I don’t know about pulling their punches. Most were probably genuinely sad that Abbott was so shit and had to be put out of his misery.
‘Nemesis’ sounds like an episode of ‘Liberal Survivor Australia’.
I watched the real thing, ‘Australian Survivor’, instead tonight. I’ll catch Nemesis on iView tomorrow.
nath,
Is your dog OK?
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics:
I’m still genuinely impressed that the ABC managed to fit the treachery, backstabbing, school yard fights, pursuit of power for power’s sake and the gross dereliction of governance and public duty of that regime, into something far less than 24 episodes
Not as good as Labor in Power, that remains the gold standard.
Boerwar @ #3671 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 8:57 pm
No, but he ruthlessly ran The Prayer Group.
#samesame
Am looking forward to “The Albo Years”. A time of peace tranquility and social progress.
Confessions @ #3662 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 8:52 pm
Like I said, at least participants in ‘Australian Survivor’ calculate their treachery intelligently and do their decapitations cleanly. The Liberals are more ‘Lord of the Lies’.
Greensborough Growler @ #3725 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 9:50 pm
Not if Irene and nath write the script. It will be full of Bill Shorten skullduggery and overweening ambition and the NSW Right plotting with him behind the drapes. 😀
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:43 pm
nath,
Is your dog OK?
_________
He’s beautiful. A great alarm dog and loves the beach and parks. He has a girlfriend and gets a marrow bone every fortnight. He’s living better than most people on the planet.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:45 pm
Not as good as Labor in Power, that remains the gold standard.
___________
that was a ripper. And really policy focused too. Who could forget Keating strutting towards Parliament House in his Zegna suit and overcoat.
Confessions @ #3557 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 6:57 pm
Just caught up with this, ‘fess. Are you talking about the ‘poor’ couple on 400 large a year?
C@tmomma @ Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:54 pm:
[Greensborough Growler:] “Am looking forward to “The Albo Years”. A time of peace tranquility and social progress.”
Not if Irene and nath write the script. It will be full of Bill Shorten skullduggery and overweening ambition and the NSW Right plotting with him behind the drapes. ”
================
C@tmomma, that plotline is to the reality of the Albanese Labor Government, at best, as ‘Rosencranz and Guildernstern are Dead’ is to ‘Hamlet’.
cat,
Turnbull and Abbott had breakfast at a bonding retreat.
Tony comes down and says “You are a total arsehole and I will destroy you”.
But, what he meant to say was, “Pass the salt”.
nath @ Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:54 pm:
[Greensborough Growler:] “nath, Is your dog OK?”
He’s beautiful. A great alarm dog and loves the beach and parks. He has a girlfriend and gets a marrow bone every fortnight. He’s living better than most people on the planet.”
===================
nath, I might be wrong, but I think GG was asking if you got to the dog park this evening.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:54 pm
Greensborough Growler @ #3725 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 9:50 pm
Am looking forward to “The Albo Years”. A time of peace tranquility and social progress.
Not if Irene and nath write the script. It will be full of Bill Shorten skullduggery and overweening ambition and the NSW Right plotting with him behind the drapes.
_______________
It should start with anonymous online commentary about what a disaster Albo will be as leader of Labor and how the Newscorp dirt file on him will stop him in his tracks.
Lars Von Triersays:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:28 pm
Where’s sprocket? I can just see him clipping video of some of his favourite Liberal fatties.
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There is only one person on this site who keeps posting on this subject and it isn’t sprocket. If you want to live vicariously by pretending this fetish is sprockets and not your own. The only person you would be fooling is yourself. So either you fully embrace the fact you have this fetish or you seek professional help for it. Either way pretending it is sprockets fetish and not your own can’t be good for you in the long term mentally. As combining both denial with transference is quite a piece of mental gymnastics.
Note: Sprocket needs to stop supplying you with pictures every time you demand them. It is only making your addiction worse. It is time for tough love and the cold turkey treatment, i’m afraid to say.
Entropy says:
There is only one person on this site who keeps posting on this subject and it isn’t sprocket. If you want to live vicariously by pretending this fetish is sprockets and not your own.
___________
well that’s just not true. Sprocket is well known for it. So back off.
Macarthur @ #3731 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 9:57 pm
You made me lol, Macarthur. 😆
There are some truisms in politics.
Every politician starts with a bank of credibility.
Over time, through situations and circumstances that credibility is diminished.
Eventually, that credibility is extinguished and they are replaced.
Albo’s Government took a huge risk knowing their credibility would be challenged with the S3 reforms.
They rolled the dice and took their chances.
My guess is they have made the right choice.
nath @ #3734 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 9:59 pm
As I thought. Your material will be essentially pointless and minor key. Probably getting an audience of people who have removed their belly button lint for the day and have nothing better to do. And your dog. 😐
Greensborough Growler @ #3738 Monday, January 29th, 2024 – 10:13 pm
‘You gotta know when to hold ’em; know when to fold ’em, and know when to walk away’ Also, you gotta know when to go all in.
With the Greens, Jacqui Lambie and David Pocock supporting either abolishing or paring back the already-legislated stage three tax cuts, Labor’s bill to overhaul the package and redirect the bulk of the cuts to low and middle-income earners is expected to pass the Senate. Nonetheless, the shadow cabinet will discuss in a meeting in Perth on Wednesday a preliminary response given Mr Dutton and his senior shadow ministers say the timing of the broken promise was designed to wedge the Coalition ahead of Dunkley.
Let’s all feel sad for Dutton and the Coalition. Labor’s playing politics with them. They think that only they should be allowed to do that. 🙁
Liberal Party insiders knew in 2013 that Abbott would inevitably struggle once he became PM, from which time he would no longer enjoy the benefit of Labor continually punching itself in the face and would instead have to deliver the goods in government: which was always going to be an immense struggle for someone with a known propensity for impulsively doing and saying some unbelievably dumb things.
And so it turned out. The only surprise was how quickly Abbott’s demise came. He was already looking cooked at around the time of the G20 meeting, which was only 14 months into his term. After the disaster of the 2014 Budget, Abbott’s comments about “shirtfronting” Putin, along with his blathering about a “death cult”, made his colleagues suspect that the ratbaggery was going to continue unabated. Then the Australia Day 2015 announcement of the decision to knight Prince Philip confirmed it in the minds of everyone. The only question then became how many more days would pass until the inevitable night of the long knives.
Howard knew all along that Abbott would struggle as PM. His main goal in mentoring Abbott had been to neutralise the threat of Costello and thereby enable him (Howard) to remain in the role for as long as possible, and potentially eclipse Menzies’s record as the longest-serving PM. I suspect that Howard’s views of Abbott were always those that he expressed on the show tonight. Joyce was also reasonably honest in his appraisal. And Ken Wyatt, in his gentle way, was probably the most incisive of all the interviewees. Most of the other Liberal pollies chose to say nice things about Abbott’s great intelligence and charisma that I doubt they truly believed. I’m not really sure why they bothered: guilty feelings, I suppose. (Interestingly, despite his convulted attempts to give the impression that he had supported Abbott vs Turnbull, Morrison had nothing good to say about Abbott: or, if he did, it must have been left on the cutting room floor.)
Because many of the interviewees pulled their punches, Abbott ultimately came across a little better in the program than he deserved. In truth, he richly deserved what happened to him: he had been handed a golden opportunity to become a successful PM, and he stuffed it up monumentally, largely because he isn’t very smart. His reputation in the media has always been far better than he deserves: he did a good job at persuading the Press Gallery that, at heart, he was one of them (albeit that his journalistic career had largely consisted of being invited to write rather weird opinion pieces for the broadsheets).
But, having said all of that, can I say that he was a worse PM than either Turnbull or Morrison? I don’t think I can.
meher baba at 10.21 pm
Did you visit a polling booth on 7 Sep 2013? The only photos of Abbott were the Labor ones. Says it all.
Like everyone else I just finished watching Nemesis on SA time.
Morrison! What a memory! One moment he is recalling specific individuals, conversations and meals from 8 years ago. The next he has no memory of his own actions then or later. Yet still phrasing answers carefully so as not to absolutely deny he did something, simply he can’t recall.
Morrison is a shameless liar. That we already knew, as BK said.
What was interesting was Morrison’s reported involvement in potential coup plotting from as far back as 2015. Goading Turnbull to clear the way for him.
I really hope the NACC is investigating Morrison right back to his robodebt minister days.
For mine you have to look at the whole period since Howard losing in 2007, it’s hard to believe Albo will be the one to break out past the 3 year jinx. Its been 6 PM’s in 16 years.
meher,
Outstanding analysis.
Cheers.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 9:43 pm
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics:
I’m still genuinely impressed that the ABC managed to fit the treachery, backstabbing, school yard fights, pursuit of power for power’s sake and the gross dereliction of governance and public duty of that regime, into something far less than 24 episodes
”
“Possum Comitatus: the treachery, backstabbing, school yard fights, pursuit of power for power’s sake and the gross dereliction of governance and public duty of that regime.
And yet LNP was in power for 9 years.
That didn’t stop there. After LNP lost power in 2022, People believed Dutton to vote against “Voice referendum”.
Some of the opinion polls say that people want to make Dutton PM now. Why am saying that ? Because ALP PV in those polls was 29%.
nathsays:
Monday, January 29, 2024 at 10:07 pm
Entropy says:
There is only one person on this site who keeps posting on this subject and it isn’t sprocket. If you want to live vicariously by pretending this fetish is sprockets and not your own.
___________
well that’s just not true. Sprocket is well known for it. So back off.
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That’s your professional opinion against my professional opinion. From what i see Sprocket is only playing up to Lars continual request to be provided with more images. Take Lars’ last post it is clearly a thinly veiled request for sprocket to supply Lars with more images, screen grabbed from the Nemesis show. While Lars could possibly do it themselves, this would be admission that the fetish was theirs. Hence the constant demand for Sprocket to supply the images. In order to live in denial, by continuing the charade that fetish is someone else’s.
There’s a lot of projection in what Lars Von Trier says about other people.
Littleproud says $190000 is not a lot and the tax fix is class warfare
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/29/david-littleproud-accuses-labor-of-class-warfare-over-stage-three-tax-changes-saying-190000-is-not-a-lot
Median HOUSEHOLD income in 2021 was not much more than $60000 in Maranoa, $1237 pw, 75% of the Qld avg and 40% of Wentworth’s. He’s taking the piss out of his own electorate
https://abs.gov.au/census/find-census-data/quickstats/2021/CED321
For someone that eschews the political horse race we call polling, Possum is agitated about a result at a particular time that doesn’t continue to resonate beyond that issue.
No one ever lost an Election because of a Referendum result.