YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). The poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred premier has narrowed from 45-35 to 45-38 and his net approval rating is out from minus 13 to minus 16, with Peter Dutton in slightly from minus nine to minus eight. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502.
Some notable electoral happenings at state level:
• There is the possibility of an early election in Tasmania as Premier Jeremy Rockliff pursues a demand that John Tucker and Lara Alexander, Liberal-turned-independent members who hold the balance of power in the lower house, agree not to vote for non-government amendments and motions. Further clarity may be provided after a meeting between the three at 1:30pm today.
• March 23 has been confirmed as the date for the South Australian state by-election in Dunstan, the highly marginal seat being vacated with the resignation on Tuesday of former Premier Steven Marshall.
• I also have by-election guides up for the Queensland state seats of Inala and Ipswich West, which will go to the polls concurrently with the local government elections on March 16.
Is anybody seriously suggesting Labor wouldn’t have won Fowler in 2022 if Tu Le had been the candidate?
C@t
ABC News posted this at 7.00am this morning
Maybe The Thug is going to gazump Angus?
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ABC News
@abcnews
Coming up on #Insiders with David Speers:
Shadow Treasurer, Angus Taylor
Alex Ellinghausen
️ Jacob Greber, Clare Armstrong, Tom Crowley.
And it appears Redbridge poll has dropped
If someone has access to the Melbourne Daily Rupert, grateful for the numbers..
Albo’s tax punt boosts Labor’s electoral fortunes
Voters are overwhelmingly in favour of the changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts but Labor has fallen behind in one key area.
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
Our latest National poll. Big tick of approval from voters on the tax cuts. Even bigger in outer suburban and regional electorates.
But ominous for the LNP, Labor leads on who respondents trust on managing the economy. This is a huge problem as this issue will define the next election. Labor’s
@JEChalmers
has become Labor’s main weapon and it’s working.
This aside, voter sentiment is very soft. The 2PP for both parties is unchanged from December, but there is movement within specific cohorts. The LNP’s primary is still growing, as they seem to be hoovering up the ‘other vote’. This is occurring in the outer suburbs and hence, the Dunkley by-election may indeed reveal some of these traits.
Overall the mood of the country is pessimistic, which should not surprise given well over half of all borrowers are suffering negative cash flow and renters are suffering via soaring rental prices.
More detail to follow today and tomorrow.
Albo’s tax punt boosts Labor’s electoral fortunes https://heraldsun.com.au/news/nsw/anthony-albaneses-tax-backflip-a-boost-for-electoral-fortunes/news-story/f6355ab578d50c391213790bd997d286
I read that it was Peter Potato Head.
If Anus or Potato Head you can be guaranteed that the questions will be soft.
You can still keep your bingo cards, because the responses will probably be the same.
Potato Head might still be sulking that their ABC allowed Sarah Ferguson to be as rude to Pete as she was to Chalmers, Albanese & Wong.
Questions for Speers to put to Taylor:
Given Labor’s successes in parliament this week, is Peter Dutton’s leadership secure? Who is most likely to succeed him? Who do you support?
Different LNP sources gave three different positions on the Stage 3 tax cuts in the past two weeks. What is the party’s official position, support or opposition to Labor’s changes?
Will any taxes be brought back in 2025 if the LNP wins power? IF the LNP wins power and brings in the full Stage 3 cuts, will the middle income assistance be removed, or will services be cut to pay for the full Stage 3? Which services?
I can dream.
Is anybody seriously suggesting Labor wouldn’t have won Fowler in 2022 if Tu Le had been the candidate?
@Lars
Your deliberately avoiding the issue and I never put that in my post. I’m saying she wouldn’t have won the preselection. She only received 6 out of the 61 votes in the Cabramatta preselection. I never supported the Kristina Keneally parachute. But alot of the outrage was Le was well supported local rank and file favorite who had been robbed. When the narrative was very misleading.
#weatheronPB
Well-worn clouds are thin.
They’ve emptied out their water,
and the sun stares through.
Chicken and a de egg.
If not for KK – Tu Le would have been annointed as the candidate. The democratic quality of the branches out there is debatable – the Cabramatta preselection was an absolute last resort after about three decades of passing out seats, starting with Reba Meagher.
From the Herald Sun Article. To me it all seems a bit weird. Something is not right.
But, in a worrying sign for the Government, less than a third of voters think the country is heading in the right direction, while almost half think the country is going the wrong way. Equally ominously for the Opposition, more voters say they trust the Labor Party to best manage the economy.
Labor’s primary vote was unchanged since December at 33 per cent but the Coalition has picked up 3 points to be 38 per cent in the survey, which was conducted in the first week of February.
This has resulted in an improvement in the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote, which rose from 47.2 per cent in December to 48.8 per cent, while the Government has dropped from 52.8 per cent to 51.2 per cent.
The improvement in the Coalition’s position has come almost entirely from an increase in its support among women.
Since August Labor’s female primary vote in RedBridge’s polling has fallen from 35 per cent to 30 per cent while the Coalition’s has leapt from 36 per cent to 41. On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition now has a narrow lead with women voters of 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
As recently as December, RedBridge had Labor leading the Coalition 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a 2-PP basis.
This is why it is important, always and everywhere, for us to devote the resources necessary to combat violations of international law:
“Callous disregard for civilian lives and safety is a disturbing feature of modern armed conflict. From Ukraine and Gaza to Sudan and Myanmar, respect for the “laws of war” is being eroded or is non-existent. Non-combatants are deliberately targeted. Most shocking, and unforgivable, is the wanton harm – the UN term is “grave violations” – done to children.
In his latest report on children and conflict, UN secretary general António Guterres warned that children “continued to be disproportionately affected” by war-related violence and abuses. By this, he meant killing and maiming, rape, sexual violence, abductions, school attacks and recruitment of child soldiers. All were on the rise, he said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/10/the-world-is-waging-war-on-its-children-in-an-obscene-mockery-of-international-law
laughtong@8.55
Weird, hardly the word!
Steve777: We know from the 2PP that Zimmerman would have won North Sydney had Tink been excluded. However it is worth noting that the official 2PP (51.26 to Zimmerman) included an apparent booth error that was never corrected; had that error been confirmed and corrected it would have been something like 50.4 to Zimmerman.
The democratic quality of the branches out there is debatable
@Lars
Yeah I’m sure you would know this considering you have never attended one. If Labor has parachutes someone you bash Labor and if they have a preselection you question how democratic the branches are.
Kevin Bonham
“ Steve777: We know from the 2PP that Zimmerman would have won North Sydney had Tink been excluded. However it is worth noting that the official 2PP (51.26 to Zimmerman) included an apparent booth error that was never corrected; had that error been confirmed and corrected it would have been something like 50.4 to Zimmerman.”
Thanks. That still confirms that, from Labor’s viewpoint, keeping Teals in seats like North Sydney remains Labor’s best outcome in terms of balance of seats in parliament.
Put another way, as long as the Teals popularity holds up at seat level, the LNP is actually a lot further from government than the 52/48 2PP suggests.
Differences between Teals and LNP on issues like climate change look irreconcilable, given that the LNP’s first reaction to the New Car efficiency policy was to try to restart Ute-wars.
“Latest from Manua Loa.”
Mauna Loa.
A related word is mauka = towards the mountains, as opposed to makai = towards the ocean.
Also, as noted on the Global Monitoring Laboratory website:
It’s possible the 2022 lava flows are outgassing and skewing the readings; you should compare them against Cape Grim etc.
https://capegrim.csiro.au/
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declined to rule out changes to the taxation of trusts, amid increased focus from Treasury and the Australian Tax Office on the arrangements. While ruling out changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing, Chalmers declined to do the same on trusts when pressed on Sky News on Sunday morning. “I have exchanges with Treasury about all elements of the tax system, not because we are proposing to change any particular part of it, but because I like to understand all elements of the budget and the tax system,” Chalmers said. The treasurer said the government currently had “a pretty full book” on tax reform, pointing to its changes to the stage three tax cuts, superannuation concession changes and “cleaning up after the PwC tax scandal”.
World News/Politics:
Special counsel surprise triggers Dem worries, White House anger: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4459459-special-counsel-surprise-triggers-dem-worries-white-house-anger/
Trump promises NRA that if elected, ‘no one will lay a finger on your firearms’: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/09/trump-promises-nra-that-if-elected-no-one-will-lay-a-finger-on-your-firearms-00140818
GOP Sen. John Kennedy Freaks Out When Reminded He Used To Be A Democrat: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/john-kennedy-marxist-biden-judicial-nominee_n_65c64964e4b093b2e7837413
History confirms Republicans rejected a once-in-a-lifetime immigration opportunity: https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4458612-history-confirms-republicans-rejected-a-once-in-a-lifetime-immigration-opportunity/
Joe Biden’s Campaign Launches Multiple Attacks on ‘Slurring’ Donald Trump: https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-slurring-donald-trump-nra-speech-1868751
Angus Taylor now on Insiders. Horse trough cleaning and lawn cutting beckon.
Angus Taylor sounds like a used car salesman trying to flog a clapped out car with a few banana skins in the diff..
That question is so broad as to be meaningless. A follow up question asking *why* they think the country is/isn’t heading in the wrong direction would probably be a grab bag of economic pressures (rents, interest rates, food prices) and cooker conspiracy theories.
Feeling like the world is changing too fast? All this EV , green energy talk making you feel you are being forced into making a vehicle choice you don’t want? Does the sight of the Golden Ram or the shape of an old oil bottle bring back fond memories? Then here is the opportunity for you!
Seriously, as ICE vehicles dwindle, this stuff is gold, what’s to complain about?
Autobilia is the new bitcoin?
https://burnsandco.hibid.com/catalog/517965/dealers-and-collectors-timed-online-auction
Spears not challenging any of Taylor’s crapola
Angus Taylor has promised the Liberals take the very best slogans to the next election.
Thank God that’s over…
Third rate interviewing. Give me Sarah Ferguson any day.
Apart from the ABC guy, the panel is crap too.
Well that was a non event.
My preference is Laura Tingle, respectful, knows her topic and doesn’t just go after gotchas and try and force her preconceived ideas.
Some UK cartoons
@Cartoon4sale
Matt Davies
Andy Davey
Chris Riddell
Martyn Turner
Martin Rowson
Kal
Seamus Jennings
Graeme Bandiera
Peter Brooks
Matt
Dave Brown
And, of course, the original Dali
And an oddity or 2, just because
Catherine Renshaw is now the Acting Dean of the Law School at University of Western Sydney
laughtong says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 8:55 am
You need to stop posting that type of thing – doesn’t fit the narrative – the LNP are misogynists, every single one including the women, and women hate them. All women hate the LNP.
Get with the program.
Spears not challenging any of Taylor’s crapola
David Speers suxed and let Angus Taylor off on his bullshit statements. Taylor suggested Labor’s ‘calculated lie’ even though the Liberals voted to support the tax changes. And Taylor’s comment ‘When Labor see’s money they spend it’. Even though Labor has left a surplus and projected to get a second one. While the Liberals left a debt five times amount of Labor in office and pushed the national debt out to a trillion. While also not producing a single surplus in nine years.
Not having watched Insiders because I knew that it would be a waste of space in my brain, can I ask whether David Speers grew a pair and asked Angus Taylor about Barnaby Joyce’s communion with the footpath in Canberra? Was it even mentioned at all?
And one for Valentines day
The LNP should be able to easily win more female votes with the ALP’s Vehicle Efficiency Tax. The ALP and Greens hate the favourite vehicles of Mums. It’s that simple. The ALP want to make the favourite vehicles of Mums more expensive and they want Mums to squeeze into to tiny little cars with all the kids.
Then do Tradies.
Then do the Weekend recreational SUV owners.
7 of the top 10 highest selling vehicles in 2023 were SUV.
This is mining tax 2.0.
FUBAR,
Gonna admit that you lied yesterday when you boldly stated that the Albanese government has done nothing for WA since the election?
D and M
I’ll raise you this…
Thanks D&M!
FUBAR
Having watched Angus Taylor and read your posts today I need to ask:
Does your mob only stand for slogans and oppose everything else?
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 9:52 am
You would have preferred Australia to go into recession during COVID? How high did you want the unemployment rate to go? How many businesses bankrupted?
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:07 am
It’s called Opposition for a reason.
The Westminster system is an adversarial one- there is no obligation on the Opposition to do anything except hold the government to account.
Oppositions do not win elections- Governments lose them.
An Opposition has to keep saying what it is saying until it is sick to the back teeth of it and only them some of the swinging voters who win elections will start to be aware of what is being said. It takes consistent long-term discipline for an Opposition to get its message out
Not having watched Insiders because I knew that it would be a waste of space in my brain, can I ask whether David Speers grew a pair and asked Angus Taylor about Barnaby Joyce’s communion with the footpath in Canberra? Was it even mentioned at all?
@C@tmomma
It was asked at the end of the interview. Angus Taylor said that he was concerned about Barnaby Joyce wellbeing. David Speers asked would he be saying the same thing if it was someone from the Labor side. And Taylor said he would be saying it for anyone. I actually didn’t really find this as contentious as some of the other parts of the interview. Taylor bullshit excuse about why he wouldn’t support negative gearing I found worse.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:06 am
I didn’t say that at all. You are misquoting me, as usual.
Funny, but all the Mums dropping their kids off to the schools in my area and that includes the private schools, seem to be turning up in Tesla’s, Ioniqs and Volvo EVs. I guess our state is just ahead of the pack.
Oh,and FUBAR, you seem to have forgotten to mention that the second most popular new car sold last year was the Tesla. Must’ve been the mums boosting sales. Oh,and if you have been in an Ioniq, as I have, you’ll know that they are just as spacious as any ICE SUV.
Thanks, PN. I guess the hypocrisy of the Coalition who created subterranean murmurings about Peter Slipper’s drinking as a basis for driving him out of the parliament, wasn’t considered worthy of mention?
You would have preferred Australia to go into recession during COVID? How high did you want the unemployment rate to go? How many businesses bankrupted?
@Fubar
Liberals doubled the debt before covid Fubar. Nice try but not cigar. While throwing away 27 billion on jobkeeper to business’s that were entitled to it. Apparently that is also a conservative figure. I’ve read other reports the figure was as much 40 billion.
Okay, FUBAR, what you specifically said @ 8.59pm last night was:
‘ And we can rely on the ALP pretty quickly dumping on WA in favour of its big constituencies in NSW and Victoria. They always do.’
So,tell me, how then will the ALP dump on WA in favour of the big constituencies of NSW and Victoria? You surely must have some reasonable thoughts about it to have made that bold statement?
FUBAR says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:12 am
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:07 am
It’s called Opposition for a reason.
The Westminster system is an adversarial one- there is no obligation on the Opposition to do anything except hold the government to account.
Oppositions do not win elections- Governments lose them.
An Opposition has to keep saying what it is saying until it is sick to the back teeth of it and only them some of the swinging voters who win elections will start to be aware of what is being said. It takes consistent long-term discipline for an Opposition to get its message out
__________________________________________
What I read from your post is that a Coalition Opposition just has to mouth political garbage – like the parties themselves – to win. As long as they can convince the Australian public that the Government is bad, then they are happy that a lying bunch of shits like the Abbott-led Coalition in 2013 should be let in. And then they break what few promises they make.
I would prefer an Opposition to stand for something substantial (other than meaningless slogans) and be prepared to defend it. But that is not the garbage model you support.
10 kinds of monster truck and SUV outsold all the new cars last year.
Its good to see the plug in electrics rapidly expand market share but it’s still not 10% of the passenger vehicle market
TPOF
Third rate interviewing. Give me Sarah Ferguson any day.
There will be many who disagree with me here. I thought Sarah Ferguson was not at her best during the Peter Dutton interview. From the moment the interview began, she was provocative and needling (“Was it humiliating for you…?”).
I certainly enjoyed watching Dutton squirm – I am a Labor partisan after all. But at the same time I was not impressed with the tone and phrasing of many of Ferguson’s questions.