YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). The poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred premier has narrowed from 45-35 to 45-38 and his net approval rating is out from minus 13 to minus 16, with Peter Dutton in slightly from minus nine to minus eight. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502.
Some notable electoral happenings at state level:
• There is the possibility of an early election in Tasmania as Premier Jeremy Rockliff pursues a demand that John Tucker and Lara Alexander, Liberal-turned-independent members who hold the balance of power in the lower house, agree not to vote for non-government amendments and motions. Further clarity may be provided after a meeting between the three at 1:30pm today.
• March 23 has been confirmed as the date for the South Australian state by-election in Dunstan, the highly marginal seat being vacated with the resignation on Tuesday of former Premier Steven Marshall.
• I also have by-election guides up for the Queensland state seats of Inala and Ipswich West, which will go to the polls concurrently with the local government elections on March 16.
Pueo@9.15
Good point, thanks for that. Haven’t checked Cape Grim data for a while.
Socrates at 9:12am
Seriously? Are you seriously suggesting that any political party trying to win a majority of seats, should boost another candidate when it is just 0.4% (400- 500) votes short of a majority in a particular seat? And when 3 years will have passed since that very small margin result occurred? And the Party that actually beat you is no longer trying to win that seat, on policy substance.
Why would a Party do that??.
you have to sit through a lot of crap to get to talking pictures.
Per Redbridge, Dribs & drabs released, bit frustrating. Looks like it’s found a new home at the Herald Sun.
I have to say, these figures are not good for Labor at all – there has been no bounce post the S3 revision.
Kos indicates there was a big tick of approval from voters (yet the LNP is rewarded with a 3 point primary gain). That’s an interesting take. Must be another issue at play with the voters. Something is not right with the polls.
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:28 am
You would never vote LNP for any reason so your opinion on what you’d like from an LNP opposition is irrelevant.
FUBAR
There is only one problem with your monster trucks scare campaign. All the changes require is import of what has been developed and sold in the USA market.
Why should Australian Tradies and mums have an inferior product?\\
Labor looking after tradies again, insisting the car companies of equal standard to those sold in the USA.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:05 am
“Something is not right with the polls.”
Based on your analysis of polling data or just because you hate the LNP?
I don’t understand how true conservatives could support this Liberal party.
Rex, a conservative under pressure is a Fascist. And they are under pressure. So many cultural battles lost, and Rupert won’t be around much longer.
frednk says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:07 am
“Why should Australian Tradies and mums have an inferior product?”
Consumers will pay more by choices for things that they value. The vehicles sold in Australia are not inferior and you are going to force an involuntary price rise on to the majority of the most popular vehicles.
The averaging policy across a manufacturer’s range is as stupid as both the Carbon Tax we were never going to have and the Mining Tax combined. Ecofascist chest thumping stupidity.
The problem with the polls is Albo – he’s jumped the shark with the Australian public.
-9 18 months in.
nath says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:13 am
“a conservative under pressure is a Fascist.”
Fuck off cockwomble.
It’s not like Rex’s Greens have massive support.
And personally I won’t be happy until there are drag queens reading stories in every school in the country. 🙂
nadia88 says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:05 am
Per Redbridge, Dribs & drabs released, bit frustrating. Looks like it’s found a new home at the Herald Sun.
I have to say, these figures are not good for Labor at all – there has been no bounce post the S3 revision.
—————
Economy
Labor 38 %
lib/nats 32 %
Is a shocking result for Lib/nats and their propaganda media
and the lib/nats combined primary vote is still below 40% , if lib/nats were ever going to get over 40% it should have been in the last 4/5 months
It shows the lib/nats are likely going to struggle at the 2025 federal election
Question is will it be around the same or lower than 35.7% (2022) federal election
Interesting interview with Oliver Stone by Fitzsimmons today.
Oliver Stone of all people endorsing single modular reactors as the way of the future.
The Ford Raptor gets 16 liters/100 km. Our ASX which is a small SUV gets 5. If you buy a ford raptor you can hardly complain about cost of living pressure.
FUBAR says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:15 am
nath says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:13 am
“a conservative under pressure is a Fascist.”
Fuck off cockwomble.
_______
Fuck me? No. Fuck you.
RP says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:43 am
Pueo@9.15
Good point, thanks for that. Haven’t checked Cape Grim data for a while.
—————
Thanks from me too. Carbon dioxide reading highest for many millennia, or much longer, 417.8 ppm, parts per million, last December.
The air tested at Cape Grim, NW Tasmania would be the least polluted in the world. Coming across the Indian Ocean, from the west.
Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased substantially since the beginning of the industrial era, rising from an annual average of 280 ppm in the late 1700s to 414 ppm in 2021 (averaged from 5 sites ).
In 2015 it was 399.4ppm. No doubt about it, CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere are increasing.
This steady increase in CO2 in the atmosphere is ignored by our 2 main political parties.
As, that know it all broadcaster Alan Jones dismissed the continual, what he called insignificant, increase as irrelevant.
You can see from the history of Europe where the Fascist parties got their support. Former conservatives in every case.
They lost their savings in the Depression and were radicalized into Fascists.
Shogun at 10.37
It was far less about watching Dutton squirm as seeing a Liberal actually get the same treatment as Labor leaders and treasurers (including shadow treasurers). She was just as aggressive with Albanese and Chalmers.
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:15 am
Conflating two unrelated issues – “petrochemical smog” is not an issue in Australia and is unrelated to the theory of climate change caused by human created CO2 and other gas emissions – which is the target of the policy. Your post is unscientific bollocks – exactly why the policy is a crock of shit.
FUBAR says:
…
Consumers will pay more by choices for things that they value. The vehicles sold in Australia are not inferior and you are going to force an involuntary price rise on to the majority of the most popular vehicles.
..
If they were not inferior than there would be no issues with meeting the standards enforced in their home market.
The Liberals helping car companies supply inferior products to Australian Tradies.
Pretty low act really.
The result at the Dunkley By-election ,
Labor could remain 78 seats or go back to 2022 federal election result – 77 seats
Lib/nats remain 55 seats or up to 56 seats – net lost of 2 seats since the 2022 federal election result
FUBAR says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:06 am
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:28 am
You would never vote LNP for any reason so your opinion on what you’d like from an LNP opposition is irrelevant.
___________________________________________
And you would never not vote for them, so your ignorance about the Westminster system is irrelevant. Anyway, the Coalition attitude to the Washminster system we have here is far more modern GOP Washington than it has to anything remotely related to the Westminster system.
Q: “petrochemical smog” is not an issue in Australia
Really? With all these new car tunnels and motorways in our fast growing cities?
subgeometer,
From a virtual standing start and after 10 years of Coalition stalling, EVs are catching up and taking off in the Australian market pretty quickly you would have to admit?
FUBAR says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:22 am
Entropy says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:15 am
Conflating two unrelated issues – “petrochemical smog” is not an issue in Australia and is unrelated to the theory of climate change caused by human created CO2 and other gas emissions – which is the target of the policy. Your post is unscientific bollocks – exactly why the policy is a crock of shit.
This is where the Liberals are at. Bullshit layered on top of bullshit. Burning fuel creates CO2, burning a lot of fuel creates a lot of CO2.
That aside:
Insisting that companies supply vehicles of the same standard as those in their home market reduces Australia’s fuel bill, a good thing, and the Tradies fuel bill, a good thing.
When the federal lib/nats became the federal government on sept 7th 2013
combined primary vote 45.5%
When the federal lib/nats became the federal opposition on may 21st 2022
combined primary vote 35.7%
Lib/nats Combined primary vote declined 9.8%
I suspect a lot of conservatives actually own a fair bit of Nazi paraphernalia. These things used to sell all the time. I even knew someone who owned some of it, and he was a conservative.
I was round at his house for a BBQ and he discretely showed me into a small bedroom where he had proudly displayed a Luftwaffe jacket, medals and other junk. I was slightly horrified.
And of course, if you are a Nazi sympathizer, and have aspirations to live and work well you can’t exactly go around telling people how you feel. No. You tell people you are a ‘conservative’.
SkyNews James Morrow…
Labor is set to narrowly win the by-election for Dunkley next month, according to polling leaked to Sky News Australia.
Labor polling out of Dunkley shows the government is in the box seat to retain the seat in the March 2 by-election in a close contest.
Sky News understands that Labor is ahead in the contest on a two-party preferred basis around the same amount that an Australia Institute poll found last week – 52 to 48.
The result would represent a 4.3 per cent swing against the government. But the polling conducted on Wednesday and Thursday night last week shows why Labor are targeting Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy, who is the mayor of Frankston, in its latest advertisement.
The polling asks, “Do you approve of the performance of Frankston Council” to which only 17 per cent approved, 45 per cent disapproved and 40 per cent neither approved or disapproved.
The by-election comes in the context of the government’s stage three tax cut changes, which will redirect relief to lower and middle income earners while tax cuts will almost be halved for higher income earners.
Regarding the issues most important in terms of deciding how people will vote, the poll found 69 per cent of people in Dunkley nominated help with cost of living pressures, 23 per cent said funding to Frankston Hospital and only eight per cent nominated upgrading the Baxter Rail line, which Opposition leader Peter Dutton has promised.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/labor-set-to-narrowly-win-dunkley-byelection-with-performance-of-liberal-candidate-nathan-conroy-to-play-in-result/news-story/e92206517c42b025fce4e5c3ac5764d8
Re vehicle emissions (Euro 6D) – the MSM whinge about improved emissions is such a crock, reminiscent of the way the media mishandled the “recycled water” issue during the millennium drought. This is a pretend problem.
My 2018 Ford Everest diesel is already 6D compliant and so are a lot of other vehicles already sold here. All vehicle manufacturers already have 6D-compliant vehicles sold to the rest of the developed world. But some manufacturers don’t send them here because of the lack of a 6D mandate.
Also worth noting America has very strict emissions standards because California.
Long overdue change.
Edit: My Everest does 8-9 l/100k – Ranger Raptor is limited edition performance ute and uses a twin turbo petrol V6 while most Rangers use a reasonably fugal 2l bi-turbo diesel using about 7-8 l/100k
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:17 am
Stone will end up like Michael Moore if he keeps this up.
And a Labor Party attack ad in Dunkley
The results around the Liberal candidate have prompted Labor to release a new by-election ad saying: “What do we know about Peter Dutton’s handpicked Liberal candidate Nathan Conroy?
“Conroy runs Frankston Council where he voted for every single council rate increase in 3 years by the maximum amount,” the ad continued.
“And under Conroy the council’s been called a Council under crisis.
“And if you vote for Nathan Conroy, you are really voting for Peter Dutton.
“He was voted worst health minister in 40 years by Australian doctors, voted no to higher wages and he has no plans for cost of living. In the Dunkley by-election, a vote for Conroy is a vote for Peter Dutton.”
And FUBAR would never vote for the ALP in his life and so any comment about the ALP is always just going to be disingenuous and an attempt to mislead or blackguard. Like his comment @8.59pm last night, for example. Which he has yet had the guts to explain what he meant by it other than as just another drive-by slag and bag of the federal government.
Dirty emissions Dutton and his dinosaurs of depravity. Are on a winner with dropping of vehicle emissions standard. Being able to see the stars at night is so overrated too. While nothing is so beautiful as a long lingering sunset through a petrochemical smog. You can even smell the sunset as the last of the photo reactive aromatic hydrocarbons give off their last lingering scent of the day. We could bottle and call it O’dour Perfume “Blade Runner”.
Wait till Dutton and his dinosaurs. Following his master stroke of taking vehicle emission standards back to the 1950’s. Does the same thing for nuclear power plants. Granted they will still be a lot more expensive than renewables. They will still be much cheaper than they currently are, if we remove all those pesky safety standards that currently surround them. Who cares if the chances of breeding true for any organism is less than 10%. If our nuclear power is made much cheaper as a consequence?. Survival of the fittest is so overrated any way and who says having three noses doesn’t make you the fittest. It certainly will allow you to fully appreciate the delicate scents of Dutton’s petrochemical smogs though.
FUBAR,
Definately a “reading of the polls”.
The trend, since just before the referendum, is that the LNP vote has kept increasing. I suspect they lapped up the former UAP vote late last year and the LNP has now consolidated around the 36-37 mark.
The ALP dropped < 30% in a couple of polls last year, which I assume gave the government a bit of a fright, hence the tax changes. It crept up into the low 30's well before the tax changes. Since the tax changes though, there has been no noticeable "jump" for the ALP vote. I would've thought there would be, but can't pick it up. The bludgertrack ticker has surprisingly indicated that the ALP 2PP has retracted further this year, and KB also keeps a ticker on his site and that hasn't shown any jump up in the polling for the ALP. We'll see what happens with the polling at the end of Feb & around budget time. I bob up when a poll drops – it's what the site is all about
And a screenshot from the Daily Rupert
Note to Peter Dutton. Check out your candidate’s voting history on Council first.
TPOF says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:23 am
“And you would never not vote for them”
You’re wrong there. I actually have – twice – but not on a policy basis.
Terminator @ #1082 Sunday, February 11th, 2024 – 11:35 am
Yes, long overdue, but also a bit pointless while we still allow diesel vehicles, and continue to burn brown coal for electricity – both major sources of “black carbon” which are the worst of the worst type of carbon emissions when it comes to both human health and climate breakdown.
We could stop this particular type of emissions very rapidly if we wanted to do so.
But apparently we’re happy to kill the planet – and ourselves – rather than give up our SUVs and air conditioning.
TPOF
It was far less about watching Dutton squirm as seeing a Liberal actually get the same treatment as Labor leaders and treasurers (including shadow treasurers). She was just as aggressive with Albanese and Chalmers.
Fair point. Dutton performed extremely poorly in the interview – his responses were a combination of Gish gallop, sloganeering, and a sneering defensiveness. But he could have performed just as poorly without Ferguson’s interviewing style.
I like that Ferguson is aggressive and assertive. She can do without the loaded questions – such as asking the Opposition Leader if he felt humiliated.
frednk says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:28 am
“ reduces Australia’s fuel bill, a good thing, and the Tradies fuel bill, a good thing.”
You clearly don’t understand the policy or how averages work. Your bullshit isn’t going to sell.
I mean, a true conservative wouldn’t stand for the massive waste, debt and mismanagement by this Liberal outfit over the last decade.
I suspect nath’s point is correct that a lot of the Liberal party support is made up of anything but conservatives.
And a true conservative would look to protect the planet using the cheapest and greenest approach on offer. TaylorMade would support that as he loves the great outdoors.
sprocket at 11.37 am
That will be an effective propaganda line for Labor. Much depends on how sour views of the Council are.
The acting Mayor has been refusing to respond to emails. He has blamed Conroy for the problems. See:
‘Liam Hughes told The Times he plans to return and blamed the mayor’s decision to run for federal politics for the situation. “I am deeply disappointed at the vote. The mayor’s unexpected decision to run for a higher political office is the reason for this disruption to council, not my decision to take annual leave over the summer break. If I had been given any warning at all, alternative plans could have been made,” he said.’
https://baysidenews.com.au/2024/02/05/leadership-crisis-damaging-council/
The Libs are also inconsistent re permitting high rise in Frankston CBD. See:
‘Conroy’s absence from council may also impact the future of the FMAC structure plan. Conroy has been a vocal advocate for council’s plan, which sets new higher height limits for developments in Frankston’s city centre. It has been going through a consultation process and is expected to be debated at council again in March. The recent addition to council of Glenn Aitken, an outspoken voice against perceived overdevelopment, may also affect the outcome.
Ironically, the Victorian Liberals released a statement last year which read that planning minister Sonya Kilkenny’s decision to remove interim three-storey height limits near Kananook Creek had “paved the way for massive foreshore development.” It read that “the planning minister promised to protect the Frankston community from overdevelopment, by applying a three storey overlay limit across the Frankston foreshore.”’ (ibid.)
Player One says:
Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:48 am
“pointless”
Everything Australia does in relation to CO2 emissions is pointless. The scientific numbers demonstrate this. And that is before considering the pointlessness in the face of the continually rising emissions of the gorillas in the room – China and India (special mention to Indonesia’s impressive coal power station building boom).
RE: Sydney’s Inner West Council Major Darcy Byrne seeking to stamp out Vape shops.
With the smoking rate under 10% you have to wonder how standalone tobacconists survive, especially when places like Woolies are cheaper (marginally).
Enter chop chop and illegally imported cigarettes. You can buy a Chinese or Indian brand for $20, it would cost the shop $5 so the margin is huge.
Then you have vapes, which are equally lucrative.
I agree with Darcy, these shops are a blight on society. Yes they’re small businesses but you could argue drug dealers are small businessmen too.
The ads about Joyce will write themself. Think of this as a poster:
The photo of Barnaby on the ground with the heading “This man is currently a member of Shadow Cabinet. Do you think he should making decisions on national security if the Liberal National coalition is elected?”
Sure the wording could be better but the gist is right. That photo could be used as devastating image and it suspect that it will be used at some stage.
It will put Dutton in the awkward position of having to defend Joyce. The problem LNP will have is the Liberals will want him out and the Nationals will want him to stay put.
I would think a 4% swing in Dunkley should translate to Albo needs to be in front in the polls by July or there’ll be a leadership change.
Can’t see the ALP risking a second term with Albo in the saddle on these numbers.