RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
MB: “Ryan down 7% before knowing who the Liberal candidate is.”
Liberals down 3% before knowing who the Liberal candidate is.
WeWantPaulsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:04 pm
“Reality:
“On 19 August 2013, the Supreme Court of Western Australia overruled Western Australian Environment Minister and the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority’s decision to recommend approval of the Browse LNG project at James Price Point after a legal challenge by Goolarabooloo custodian Richard Hunter and the Wilderness Society.[11]”
So not ecofascists but the elite of Western Australia’s legal elite decided it was unlawful.”
Reality – that decision could have been overturned with further work if both the WA Government (who was at fault for the decision – not the proponents) and Woodside had wanted to keep fighting the lawfare by the Ecofascists.
“And local indigenous groups opposed it they weren’t deprived they saved their land.” A ridiculous statement that fails to mention that there was also significant support from local indigenous groups. The reality is the amount of land is just a speck of dust relative to the size of the Kimberley.
“Legally, the losers are the Goolarabooloo people, the descents of Paddy Roe, an elder and custodian of Aboriginal law, who lost their claim to hold native title over James Price Point and other parts of the Dampier Peninsula near Broome in north-west Western Australia.”
“”The biggest losers were not just Aboriginal people but the state of Western Australia,” said Wayne Bergman, a former head of the Kimberley Land Council.”
“The traditional owners are still upset about the campaign, which was led by Phillip Roe, to stop construction of the gas plant, according to Tina Jowett, a Sydney-based barrister who represented the 2000 people of the Jabirr Jabirr.
“They just looked at me and said this is over $1 billion for our community,” she said. “We can build houses. We can buy cars to travel for work. We can feed our children. We can afford health care, including dialysis units.””
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/judge-to-end-bitter-battle-of-james-price-point-20180427-h0zce3
“Tell me out of interest where the project went and which communities got the 100s of millions of dollars.”
The Browse Basin has still not been developed and it looks likely it will be piped to the existing NW Shelf production facilities. It was estimated back in 2018 that about $1.5 billion was lost by Aboriginal communities.
Asha says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:50 pm
WWP:
That’s my fault. I apologise everyone (and especially William), I can that I’ve kicked off what will probably be an unpleasant evening.
I think I might just need to switch off from following the news for a while. I can’t handle it anymore.
__________
And this is current affairs; the future may be worse. Go well.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:54 pm
MB: “Ryan down 7% before knowing who the Liberal candidate is.”
Liberals down 3% before knowing who the Liberal candidate is.
———————
Leaving them in a stronger position because they start in front and closer to what they need.
‘Asha says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:50 pm
WWP:
That’s my fault. I apologise everyone (and especially William), I can that I’ve kicked off what will probably be an unpleasant evening.
I think I might just need to switch off from following the news for a while. I can’t handle it anymore.’
——————–
Thanks for this.
What I’d like to know about Taylor Swift is that if she’s worth a billion dollars, why can’t she afford pants?
Boerwarsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:43 pm
“FUBAR is a classic Coalitionist when it comes to misogyny.”
What evidence do you have that I hate women? Just one actual example of my hatred for them?
Mavis says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:43 pm
Anyone who accepted the evidence of the Afghans probably think that their kids never lied to them.
Anthony Albanese has shot down demands by the Greens that he pare back negative gearing and capital gains tax deductions in return for supporting a signature housing policy, saying the minor party was being juvenile and there will be no negotiation.
After holding the government to ransom for much of last year over the passage of its $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund, the Greens have demanded negative gearing and CGT changes in return for their support for the Help To Buy scheme in which the government will help first homebuyers by taking an equity stake of up to 40 per cent.
“It stands on its own and on its merits,” Mr Albanese told Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather in parliament on Monday. “The idea that there will be a discussion with that juvenile approach that we have seen from those opposite will not occur because this is not a students’ council, this is a parliament. “It is a parliament that has a responsibility, that has a responsibility to look after the people who put us here, not to grandstand. There will be no negotiations on that basis.”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-slaps-down-greens-on-negative-gearing-demands-20240212-p5f43q
shellbell @ #352 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 5:08 pm
We feel lucky we have red belly blacks as our resident ‘territorialists’, generally very timid unless cornered and/or provoked. They will generally piss right off, or freeze or flatten out into a paper thin ribbon when things get proximal. I’ve only seen one in the strike position, eye to eye with a dog, who came off quickly when called.
A few weeks ago one came to a halt next to the toe of my boot, literally touching it, when I was weeding between clumps of Lomandra (mixed species native grasses, for mass planting effects) head in one clump, tail in the other, while I was busy telling the dog to leave the lizards alone. (Dog usually gives typical trouble bark, but this time was behaving like it was after a lizard), and last weekend, it (same one I think) was wandering the driveway next to the front porch, which was a bit disconcerting.
I think the wet and cooler temps have them out and about a bit getting their batteries charged, not to mention checking their boundaries.
Fubar, you obviously consider yourself a feminist?
Mr Bowe – just waiting for your decision to drop the moratorium so I can rebut the ridiculous statements being made about Israel, the law of war and military operations.
Monique Ryan 2PP:
2022 election: 52.9%
2024 polling: 56% (or ‘more like’ 53.5% on last-election preferences)
Mexican Beemer: “Ryan’s poll numbers looked poor.”
Please explain?
nath says:
“Fubar, you obviously consider yourself a feminist?”
He’s a
Feminist
Unreconstructed
Beyond
All
Recognition
Oliver Suttonsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:06 pm
Monique Ryan 2PP:
2022 election: 52.9%
2024 polling: 56% (or ‘more like’ 53.5% on last-election preferences)
Mexican Beemer: “Ryan’s poll numbers looked poor.”
Please explain?
————–
Ryan’s primary down 7% to low 30s.
nathsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:04 pm
“Fubar, you obviously consider yourself a feminist?”
I treat everyone equally – how I would expect to be treated. I don’t care what your gender, race, sexuality or anything else is. And I have lived that fully supporting my Mum, sisters, wife and daughter to do whatever they wish to do and be the best that they can be.
Anyone – what evidence do you have that I am a sexist or a misogynist?
Re the UK polling: Please, please let “Sir” Ree Smugg be one of the casualties of a Labour wave! He’s one of the worst of the worst – a die-hard reactionary Tory, who believes that the Divine Right of Kings was too modern & new-fangled!
FUBAR
Two items come to mind.
1. Your inability to accept that Joyce’s language on the phone was misogynistic.
2. Your notion that if his wife is not publicly affected by it then it can’t be misogynistic.
The moratorium isn’t dropped. Sorry.
I notice fracturing over in WA for the state Libs.
The last of the old guard has fallen with Dr David Honey failing in his preselection bid for Cottesloe.
Vale Dr Honey.
Obviously his prescription wasn’t sweet enough for those preselectors
@FUBAR
You do seem to have a bit of contempt for Indigenous people, often bringing up their cultural practices out of nowhere in the context of mockery of them.
You don’t understand preferential voting, Mex?
You realise that this is a psephology site, right?
FUBAR @ #517 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:11 pm
I haven’t been following this, but maybe barracking for a party full of misogynists and sexists might earn a few stripes.
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:16 pm
You’re wrong.
Kirsdarke says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:21 pm
@FUBAR
“You do seem to have a bit of contempt for Indigenous people, often bringing up their cultural practices out of nowhere in the context of mockery of them.”
I’m an atheist. All religions are up for mockery.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:23 pm
You don’t understand preferential voting, Mex?
You realise that this is a psephology site, right?
—————
LOL. if Ryan is down 7% before the Liberals start campaigning she has a lot of work to do to hold.
Kirsdarke @ #521 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:21 pm
While giving a free pass to people who believe this white bearded god sent a man angel with big wings to tell a virgin she was having god’s baby while remaining intact. Gimme the rainbow serpent any day.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Orkopoulos
Bob Collins
FUBAR says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:27 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:16 pm
You’re wrong.’
————–
Just to clarify you agree that both 1 and 2 are misogynistic.
FUBAR says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:31 pm
ItzaDream says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Orkopoulos
Bob Collins
__________
Don’t forget Keith Wright.
ItzaDream says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:30 pm
What free pass?
Your short paragraph isn’t a problem but is hardly an explanation of much.
Ryan’s numbers don’t appear to have dropped at all. It seems obvious to anyone bothered to scrutinise this issue at all – but not Mexibeemer for some reason – that a heck of a lot of natural Labor and Greens voters voted staregiucally for Ryan in 2022 – to ensure that she finished at least second after the penultimate distribution of preferences and hence giving her the best shot to knock off Joshie in the final count. These same voters feel no constraints in returning to their natural political home when participating in an opinion poll at the mid term point.
The fact that Ryan’s numbers are actually greater on a 2PP basis in this poll than those she got at the actual election in 2022 is a pretty good tell that her underlying support is actually pretty strong. I’d also wager a small bet that most – if not all – of those voters who voted for her in primaries in 2022 but are now telling pollsters that theyd “vote 1” for Labor or the Greens will actually switch back to Ryan IF they think she may need extra primary votes to again finish at least second after the penultimate distribution of preferences.
A side issue is tha the Liberal support appears to have gone up. I suspect that some disaffected Liberal voters who parked their vote with ON or Palmer are coming back home. That doesnt appear to actually move the needle back to the Libs though.
In regards poor.
Over the last 10 years, funds in a Balanced Superannuation portfolio have increased in value by 10% (plus) per annum.
So, over the last 10 year period, minus contributions, $50,000- has become $100,000-
And, Financial Year To Date, this $100,000- is earning well into double digits.
The benefit of compounding, hey?
But go ahead and follow the Coalition advice to withdraw your funds from your superannuation accruals.
Where is the arbitrage to paying 6% to service your mortgage?
You service your mortgage from income (as is assessed by your lender)
And you let your superannuation contributions and their accrual do what they do.
Rebecca says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:56 pm
—————————————————————————
I like my privacy more than most. It’s why I pay with cash and have zero internet presence.
But as far as I’m concerned, anyone belonging to some group that’s trying to ruin other people’s lives and then whines about their anonymity being breached should be put in the public square in stocks for the children to throw rotten cabbages at.
‘feminist’, ‘misogynist’ etc etc
I come here, fire up the laptop and a triple buffalo trace on ice with the hope of an enjoyable evening on PB and this is what I see.
Have some respect for Mr Bowe, this is a political and polling analytical discussion hub for Australian politics and associated statistical data trends.
I may have a colourful history personally here at PB however I think everyone should at least try and give the respect to William as the man who has stuck his head out to both host-pay for the site as well as tie his real life, professional identity to it.
Lets all try to stick to the political- themes and not the hysteria and malarky.
FUBAR @ #531 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 9:34 pm
Sorry, I’ve could have well missed your equal treatment mockery of other belief systems.
Thank god, Nemetoads is over.
Took long enough for Linda Reynolds to accept the inevitable. Goodbye and good riddance.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:35 pm
Ryan’s numbers don’t appear to have dropped at all. It seems obvious to anyone bothered to scrutinise this issue at all – but not Mexibeemer for some reason – that a heck of a lot of natural Labor and Greens voters voted staregiucally for Ryan in 2022 – to ensure that she finished at least second after the penultimate distribution of preferences and hence giving her the best shot to knock off Joshie in the final count. These same voters feel no constraints in returning to their natural political home when participating in an opinion poll at the mid term point.
—————-
Ryan can win with 33% but a 7% drop before a campaign shot has been fired isn’t a strong starting point.
Rainman says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:36 pm
Rebecca says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:56 pm
—————————————————————————
I like my privacy more than most. It’s why I pay with cash and have zero internet presence.
But as far as I’m concerned, any one belonging to some group that’s trying to ruin other people’s lives and then whines about their anonymity being breached should be put in the public square in stocks for the children to throw rotten cabbages at.
______________________________________________
I assume you are referring to the group Rebecca was referring to. As I asked her, what are the allegations and who is making them?
Boerwar at 8.49 pm
Surely you should be on to Plan C by now. Didn’t you hear ProMo Morrison say B. Johnson was Plan B?
Does Joe Tripodi losing his trousers count?
William Bowe says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:17 pm
The moratorium isn’t dropped. Sorry.
—————————————————————————
I’m as guilty as anyone here for skating on very thin ice regarding the moratorium. Nobody here is ignorant about what’s going on; positions are entrenched, and passions run high.
I’ve now reached the point where I just find it all hopeless and really depressing. I watch a lot of news, but now I’m just reaching for the mute button.
I thought at first that William was wrong to exclude such an important world event from our discussions here but now I’m happy that he has decided that his blog should also have a mute button.
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:33 pm
I’ve been called that in both a good and bad context – does that make them misogynists?
No. It doesn’t. Context is everything.
‘Dr Doolittle says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:42 pm
Boerwar at 8.49 pm
Surely you should be on to Plan C by now. Didn’t you hear ProMo Morrison say B. Johnson was Plan B?’
———————–
*wry grin*
‘FUBAR says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:53 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:33 pm
I’ve been called that in both a good and bad context – does that make them misogynists?
No. It doesn’t. Context is everything.’
————————-
I don’t care what you have been called or what the contexts are. They are irrelevant.
Using a female body part in a derogatory fashion is misogynistic. Simple as that.
Part 2 of your defence is that if it doesn’t upset his wife it doesn’t count is strike 2. She doesn’t get it either.
Anyhoo. As you were. As noted above, your apparent inability to get yourself across the issue is par for the Liberal course and this is most likely to be one of the drivers keeping the Coalition out of government at the next election.
Certainly the teal seats are gone until you get a leader who shows a glimmer of understanding that misogyny matters.
It is a bit like Morrison faking empathy and integrity. They were onto him. Dutton has the same problem with trying to fake that he gets women. They are onto him as well.
It has probably not escaped your astute observation that the issue is not just with either yourself of the Liberal leadership. It keeps popping its nasty head up in pre-selection after pre-selection. It is systematic.
Rainman, you have chosen the right road in regard to the moratorium. Passions do run high and on opposing sides here at PB. I actually hope it is upheld for as long as possible.
If I call Boerwar a dick, does that make me a misandrist?
Good god Boerwar, let sleeping dogs lie and move on
FUBARsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 9:00 pm
Boerwarsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:43 pm
“FUBAR is a classic Coalitionist when it comes to misogyny.”
What evidence do you have that I hate women? Just one actual example of my hatred for them?
___________________
For starters, you support the Coalition…