RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.
Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.
The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.
In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.
Federal preselection news:
• Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.
• Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.
OC
The overlay between lawyers and politicians was much more intense in earlier days.
A few minutes ago I walked past the Garfield Barwick Commonwealth law courts building and the Jesse Street centre side by side in Parramatta.
Barwick is well known. Jesse Street, in addition to her outstanding professional career, ran for the ALP in Wentworth and almost won. She was also the daughter in law, wife and mother of Chief Justices of the Supreme Court… and a bit of a communist.
The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.
”Why, because the National Party was not just a political movement, it was a social movement. The standard volunteer organisations such as the CWA, Rotary, and [Lions] were full of National Party supporters. Your church and the school P&F, the local hardware store owner, so on and so forth were all supporters to the National Party.”
I wonder if long-term social changes are reducing this effect. They might not be as strong in regional Australia than in the cities, but they would still be happening. Fewer people volunteering for anything. Who has the time? Hardly anyone going to Church. Fewer independent stores of any kind (small hardware stores have virtually disappeared from Sydney). Fly in fly out workers. Agribusiness over family farms. Underpaid guest workers doing much of the agricultural work.
If instead of Barnaby, it was Katy Gallagher behaving this way and yelling obscenities into a phone, while doing drunken horizontal yoga. We know there would be a massive MSM pile on. Plus a total pile on by the right wing snipers on this blog. Katy Gallagher would be forced to resign. Yet because Barnaby is a male, Dutton and the misogynistic LNP will do everything to protect him. As we know if it was someone like Gallagher, Holgate or even Karen Andrews. Dutton and his mediocre male protection racket. called the LNP, would be the first to show them the door.
Politcal Nightwatchman @ #90 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 10:35 am
It’s kind of amusing to watch you work so hard to get out of a hole by digging it deeper.
MI: ” I do wonder if that urban population is mostly FIFO miner workers. ”
It’s all sorts of people. The improvement in the road networks (promoted by Nat politicians) has meant that farming and all other rural-based industries, wherever they are located, now tend to bypass the smaller towns that once serviced them and head for the major centres. These towns have also grown substantially as people from the major coastal cities have drifted inland looking for more affordable housing. Telecommuting has helped the situation still further: I know it’s a big thing in the Bathurst-Orange area.
There’s a massive difference between the mass appointments to the AAT of unqualified Liberal Party flunkies and one extremely eminent, experienced judge of 20 years standing being appointed to a role for which he is extremely qualified and just happens to be or have been an ALP member.
But never get between David Shoebridge and a chance to smear someone.
If Joyce was not the de facto leader of the Nationals, the issue would not be such of a problem for the LNP. Although he is not actually leader at the moment that doesn’t mean much as he has previously made a comeback to the role. He also does constant media appearances, so he appears to be the leader.
Thus a majority of voters if asked would probably say he is the leader. He might be an asset for the National party in the heartland but he is poison in the Liberal party traditional ground.
@B.S. Fairman
I’m willing to say if some in the Nats are downplaying it as a ‘storm in a tea cup’. It’s an indication they are willing to keep the option open of him returning as National party leader at some point. It was mentioned on the Insiders panel on Sunday Barnaby Joyce still wants to return to the leadership. It was reported last year in June that Joyce was considering challenging David Littleproud leadership.
shellbell: “Barwick is well known. ”
Yes, certainly as a dyed-in-the-wool Liberal.
But also as one of the founders of the Australian conservation movement. He was, like most of us, a multidimensional character.
theunaustralian.net: BREAKING: The manufacturers of Viagra issue a warning on the dangers of mixing alcohol with prescription medication. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #102 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:01 am
Remind me – was not changing NG a core promise, or a non-core promise?
I lose track.
If the public thinks you are a drunk, and you are not, the one thing you must do is avoiding appearing drunk.
If the public thinks you are a womaniser, and you are not, the one thing you must do is avoiding appearing out with women who are not your wife.
If the public thinks you are a thug, and you are not, the one thing you must do is avoiding threatening.
If the public thinks you have alzheimer’s, and you are don’t, the one thing you must do is avoiding appearing out to forget who was your wife.
If the public thinks you are a foreign agent, and you are not, the one thing you must do is avoiding calling for an enemy to attack your allies.
If the public thinks you are on meth, and you are not, the one thing you must do is avoiding mumbling incoherently about low flow toilets and windmills killing whales.
There is a difference between actively pondering and passively pondering? He walks around talking to himself?
I have no doubt that Joyce wants to return to the leadership of the Nats, and after everything he’s done previously, I have no doubt that his latest misdemeanour isn’t going to cost him the votes (either from the public or internally) that weren’t already against him. Might even gather some sympathy if he ends up acknowledging he has a problem and says he’s “getting help”, there’s a lot of people out there who have or had drinking problems who can empathise.
WWP
“But still there is no excuse for either the secret NACC nor trying to plonk in even a throughly competent party person into a NACC type body, it shows complete contempt, for the body, for voters and for democracy.
That the libs are as bad or worse is no defence. These guys are just objectively very bad.”
___________________
The dirty bipartisan deal to keep the NACC a secret was bad faith by the major parties designed purely to hide their dirty laundry. The head of the NACC needs to be more transparent or the the public will lose confidence in the body.
Not surprised to see Labor giving jobs to Labor mates. Same same as the Libs.
“The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.”
It is pretty funny watching them declaring victory and wanting to move on from the tax discussion, seemingly unaware Pandora’s box is open, and taxation and inequality and all the things Jimmy and Ablo wanted to ignore are now centre of the table.
In the lead-up to Dunkley I reckon it wouldn’t hurt for Labor to remind voters generally of just how much has been delivered so far.
Voters forget, don’t know or don’t notice.
They do notice fuckwits like Dutton who drone on at every opportunity about this bad government.
@citizen: I suppose actively pondering means thinking out loud in front of the media, while passive pondering would mean thinking quietly behind closed doors.
Arky @ #107 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:04 am
Ah! So now it’s not only “Ok, we did it, but they did it worse“, it’s also “nobody likes a dobber!”
I wonder what will be next? I reckon we’ll soon get to “I know you are, but what am I?”
“But the Coaliton does it too!1!” is generally a terrible excuse for anything, on account of the fact that the Coalition are fucking awful.
Mind you, I do think this Dreyfus thing is a bit of a nothingburger, though the optics certainly arn’t great.
@P1: “Remind me – was not changing NG a core promise, or a non-core promise?
I lose track.”
It’s amazing how often you sound exactly like Dutton.
It’s one thing to be running an argument that Labor should change negative gearing. By all means. The only reason not to do it is the political one, the reason Labor took it off the table after Shorten’s defeat.
But your interest is in using the negative gearing debate to smear Labor over breaking the s3 promise.
I don’t know why some people here still think you’re the good faith high horse lefty you cosplay. You break character in this way a bit too often for that, like Rex does.
“Mind you, I do think this Dreyfus thing is a bit of a nothingburger, though the optics certainly arn’t great.”
Politically it probably is a nothing burger, the public does not seem at all concerned with corruption.
This is the pool near Sydney harbour bridge that received some $millions under the LNP’s Regional Rorts Program.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/north-sydney-pool-rebuild-to-exceed-100m-as-costs-and-delays-blow-out-20240206-p5f2qm.html
Rex Douglassays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:01 am
The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.
====================================================
While limiting NG to new house builds would be a good initiative. Possibly limiting NG to just one investment property, also a good idea. The real intergeneration rort is a cash payout for tax credits when you actually pay no tax. While i’m not against a pensioner getting a windfall $450 back in cash because she owns $20000 bank shares. I’m totally against someone with $1.6 million in bank shares who has a SMSF in retirement mode, so pays no tax. Getting another windfall $36000 extra from the ATO. Now that is a rort and no wonder the wealthy are fighting tooth and nail to keep that rort. The answer is to cap Franking credit returns to around $2000 so people with up to $50k in share will still get the full value. While the real rorters with millions in shares will only get $2000 back too. Thus saving the Government a lot to spend on far more deserving causes. Also not affecting very many, except the very well off who can well afford it anyway.
“But your interest is in using the negative gearing debate to smear Labor over breaking the s3 promise.”
Yes P1 how dare you suggest labor should tell the truth, so unreasonable, the stooges will be furious.
@P1: “Ah! So now it’s not only “Ok, we did it, but they did it worse“, it’s also “nobody likes a dobber!”
It’s not either of those things, drongo. Appointing a highly qualified judge to the NACC is not the same thing as appointing unqualified flunkies to the AAT. Shoebridge and co are turning it into an “optics” thing – there’s no suggestion whatsoever the judge would have been dodgy or is an unqualified appointment, but the ALP connection lets them say it’s a bad “look” and make a smear, like you’re doing.
Arky @ #121 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:15 am
My, we are a little touchy today, aren’t we?
“It’s not either of those things, drongo. Appointing a highly qualified judge to the NACC is not the same thing as appointing unqualified flunkies to the AAT. ”
No it is much worse.
@WWP: I respect that you think the promise break is actually more important than fixing s3 (I think that was you that said that wasn’t it?), it’s an argument (not one I agree with of course) but for P1 to care more about that is out of his cosplay character. He’s usually the one demanding that Labor break promises in order to implement his claimed preferred agenda.
“No it is much worse.”
Well, I can’t agree with that. The AAT situation was so bad that Labor had to scrap the entire thing and rebuild it to fix what the Libs did, and pretty much everyone agreed that it was a fair call.
Young children are going hungry in daycare leading to behaviour problems research finds
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2024-02-12/child-health-nutrition-gaps-in-early-childhood-centres/103441340?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
‘The first 2,000 days of life — from conception to age five — is when we go through the most rapid and extensive brain development that sets the foundation for ongoing life.
During this critical time, some children spend up to 10,000 hours in long day care.
In a study of more than 1,600 centres in Queensland, Professor Thorpe who heads up the Child Development, Education and Care Group at the Queensland Brain Institute, and her colleagues found childcare centres in disadvantaged or remote communities were less likely to provide food.
“An alternate way of putting this,” Professor Thorpe said, “is parents are required to bring food from home, and these are the families least able to provide food and many are living in circumstances of food insecurity.”’
In Australia today families living below the poverty line is an accepted situation by our current and past governments. There is no plan to change this policy.
As well those centres that did provide food, often that food was of low quality or nutritional value – bulked up with rice or/and pasta, with little if any protein, fruit or vegetables.
This story was on Norman Swan’s health report on the ABC Radio National this morning.
The centres may provide, out of their government funding, very small $’s for food provision. Professor Thorpe found that the for-profit businesses often had the least nutritious food.
Similar to some for-profit aged care facilities. I wonder how Peter Dutton’s wife’s child care facilities rate here?
Yet many of these facilities, as exposed over the last few years in Sydney’s Daily Telegraph, have shown the owners living luxury lifestyles. Thanks to the generosity of the Federal LNP and Labor governments.
I was told by a friend if you want to make a lot of money buy an aged care facility. Might apply to child care facilities too.
If women have children in poorly resourced, but expensive child care and poorly resourced public schools, no wonder some may be turning away from Labor. Not the party interested in helping ‘those left behind’.
And didn’t Labor just give $5.5billion to child care facilities recently?
This model for child care is broken.
Arky @ #126 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:18 am
It’s neither me nor Shoebridge doing it. It was a poorly judged appointment, which Dreyfus then made much worse by trying to cover it up with dodgy documentation, but got caught out by the panel who is tasked with reviewing such appointments.
Not just silly, not just amateurish, but also showing contempt for the NACC and its processes.
Credibility gone. Just accept it.
WeWantPaulsays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:10 am
“The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.”
It is pretty funny watching them declaring victory and wanting to move on from the tax discussion, seemingly unaware Pandora’s box is open, and taxation and inequality and all the things Jimmy and Ablo wanted to ignore are now centre of the table.
===================================================
If a rich person gets $4500 extra believing they should of got $9000 dollars extra instead. When would you expect the whinging to stop?. While a few of the more noble ones may be grateful that some of the money went to those doing it far tougher than them. For most the gnawing and gnashing of teeth will carry on for sometime. As it is harder to take a rich mans windfall tax gain from him than for a camel to pass through the eye of the needle. As when it comes to the wealthy self interest is generally the only horse in the race.
Quote: “For the love of money is the root of all evil”
“@WWP: I respect that you think the promise break is actually more important than fixing s3 (I think that was you that said that wasn’t it?), it’s an argument (not one I agree with of course) but for P1 to care more about that is out of his cosplay character. He’s usually the one demanding that Labor break promises in order to implement his claimed preferred agenda.”
Firstly if you need to share your personal fantasises about P1 and cosplay that is up to you, but it is not a reflection on P1, it is all on you.
Secondly, you do make a good point, is getting it right in the end more important than the path. You could make a good argument it is. But you still have to deal with the path, and deception and weakness in it, they don’t get a free pass for the conversion moment on the road to Damascus, the path too is much more real than the conversion point. It is moving on with courage to make good decisions that is important, oh no wait, they aren’t doing that.
Mundo says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:11 am
In the lead-up to Dunkley I reckon it wouldn’t hurt for Labor to remind voters generally of just how much has been delivered so far.
Voters forget, don’t know or don’t notice.
They do notice fuckwits like Dutton who drone on at every opportunity about this bad government.
—————————————-
They didn’t take much notice of Dutton in the Aston by-election , which is mainly going to be a repeat of what Dutton is going to say at Dunkley by-election
“For most the gnawing and gnashing of teeth will carry on for sometime. ”
I think at this point I will leave it to you and bw to thrash out in the village council, have a great day.
Dr Doolittle 10:11
Thanks for your comments and you are correct, there is no prospect in the short term that UK will actually be allowed back into the EU.
I should have said that it was indicative that Britain’s attention in both economic and security issues was now squarely back on Europe. The Pacific Tilt is over, other than to maybe sell ships and subs.
The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.
@Rex Douglas
Rex you were calling for third stage tax cuts to be abolished altogether. Which didn’t happen. In fact it was only a couple weeks ago. You were slamming Labor for not abolishing them altogether. And use some of that money for a increase in Newstart. The fact you are inferring that you told everybody so is wrong and disingenuous.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:01 am
The Labor partisans panicking about potential changes to NG are the same ones who panicked about changes to S3.
_________________________________________________
I see that some posters actually tried to respond to this malevolent gibberish. Waste of brain cells.
Albo, as a property investor himself, could use any NG policy changes to his own political advantage (integrity & fairness), if he was smart.
So Mark Dreyfus appoints a judge to a body responsible for the investigation of alleged corruption. That sounds like a good move. So what if the appointee once had political aspirations? Really, what a trivial objection. As I recall, the excellent some-time Chief Justice of the High Court, Robert French, also once aspired to represent a political party, the Liberals in his case.
Political interest in this country signifies an interest in democracy and the law…in being involved in the legislative process. Should this interest disqualify anyone from a judicial or semi-judicial role? I hardly think so.
The good Samaritan defence of Barnaby is disingenuous in so many ways…
Having lived in the inner city for many years there is nothing more dangerous than a drunk/ out of it guy in the street screaming obscenities….steer clear especially if you are a woman. If they are on the ground call an ambulance or police. From bitter experience I learned never to intervene.
If the political connection of the NACC appointment by Dreyfuss was decades old and they are not now politically active, then I withdraw my earlier concern.
Stooge, heart still beating @ #140 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:42 am
As is so often the case – it’s not the crime that gets you, it’s the cover up. **
** Oh, and before some fool here thinks I am accusing Dreyfus of a crime, I am not. Just very poor judgement. So poor, in fact, that it could bring his own position into question.
Negative gearing of real estate acquisition has been a feature of this Australian tax system for close on a century. There have been attempts to reform it in directions that would make it less of a racket. These attempts have failed. Australians seem to like the racket, despite the inequities it creates.
Negative gearing of loans used to purchase shares is also permitted.
The accumulation of assets of most kinds is tax-sheltered in this economy. This is a feature of capitalism. Just as negative gearing puts a floor under the market for land, so it puts a floor under the market for equities and other economic factors.
What is not tax-favoured are investments in labour – in training and education. For fairness, this kind of spending should also be tax-sheltered.
meher babasays:
Monday, February 12, 2024 at 11:00 am
It’s weird to think that Trump is likely to be cheering on the 49ers against the Chiefs.
San Francisco is the epicentre of all wokeness and is the place that Republican politics goes to die. Kansas City is located in Missouri (yes, that surprised me too when I first went there): a quintessentially middle American state that has become increasingly solid for the Republicans since the rise of Trump.
————————–
That’s what makes Trump’s level of support so odd because he does and says things earlier republicans would have been outraged by from mocking serving military personal to bagging sports teams in republican states.
It can’t simply be Fox News because that network is pro military so its audience should be up in arms by any attack on military personal. There will be phd’s written on Trump because he has broken every rule in American politics but keeps his popularly.
Torchbearer – It was also clear that Joyce was not unconscious nor in real trouble. He was in the staggering drunk stage not the medical emergency stage.
Max is on a mission…
Max Chandler-Mather doesn’t understand the tax system because its not a cost to the budget when the tax system is designed to encourage certain activities.
“Thus a majority of voters if asked would probably say he is the leader. He might be an asset for the National party in the heartland but he is poison in the Liberal party traditional ground.”
Not really. Barnaby Joyce would be reviled in the Teal seats, but I don’t think he would come across as electoral poison in the seats that the Liberal Party (or Liberal part of the LNP) are targeting or consolidating, such as in Dutton’s own seat of Dickson, or general suburban Brisbane at large.
Must say I am puzzled by a few here who round off their comments with accusing other contributors of being “stooges”.
The use of this word is meant, of course, to be derogatory and pejorative but is a somewhat misplaced insult to those being so called. And, I would like to add, a bit of stupidity by those using word in the context of PB.
My observation is that those who are accused of being ‘Labor stooges’ are most likely to be actual Labor supporters.
I would think the put-down “Liberal stooge” is just about as meaningless.