Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

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  1. Themunz @ #346 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 4:33 pm

    Griffsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 4:57 pm

    “That is usually to the benefit of the domestic market of fossil fuel producing nation.”
    ______________________________________________

    Exactly. The domination of overseas ownership in local production would have nothing to do with it!!

    Arent most of the big gas producers here Australian based companies?

  2. Came across my first serious snake yesterday – a highland copperhead.

    As you do, sought FB advice including as to removal. Suggestion was removal may invite eastern brown to move in.

    Now feeling a little faint.

  3. Player Onesays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:03 pm
    Themunz @ #306 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 4:31 pm

    For any energy experts around; overnight the price of natural gas in NY was under $2. This is about the price 30+ years ago!

    Why are we paying record prices when we have stacks of the stuff and international prices are so low?

    That is probably a spot price – and the spot price of any commodity (which can fluctuate a lot depending on supply and demand) can be very different from a contracted price where you are guaranteed supply.
    ____________________________________________

    Traditionally contract prices have been lower than spot prices (see very long term contracts under John Howard)

  4. A fitting epitaph to Linda Reynolds:

    “Serkan Öztürk ❤️❤️@SerkanTheWriter
    BREAKING

    Linda Reynolds announces retirement from politics to spend more time with her family of defamation lawyers”

  5. Boerwar:

    You asked me what I would vote for. I answered that question.
    You did not ask me what others would vote for. Had you done that I would have answered THAT question.

    I believe there’s a word for this kind of response. What is it again?

    Oh, that’s right!

    It’s “Deflection.”

  6. I was watching criminal minds last night shellbell, and Reid said fatalities from the brown are low because they don’t release enough venom unless you really piss them off.
    It is just a tv show but Reid knows everything.

  7. @BS Fairman: “There weren’t really any votes to be won or lost at the Superbowl. But the fact the right wingnuts got so in knots about it was just bizarre.

    Sure, Swift is going to endorse the Democrat – She is a 34 year old unmarried woman with a career in America – that generally makes you a Democratic voter. Throw in that a large percentage of her fan base have a vested interest in LGBT+ rights, and she is hardly going to be a MAGA fan.”

    I remember when Republicans thought of Swift as tacitly one of theirs because she was initially a country singer and silent on anything political; the epitome of shutting up and singing. Obviously that changed.

  8. As to who might be the replacement for Linda Reynolds, there’s a rather large group of state Liberal MP’s that were voted out in 2017 and 2021.

    Senator Zak Kirkup, perchance? Or even Eric’s brother Peter Abetz if they want to go the full conservative gronk.

  9. ‘Asha says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:13 pm

    Boerwar:

    You asked me what I would vote for. I answered that question.
    You did not ask me what others would vote for. Had you done that I would have answered THAT question.

    I believe there’s a word for this kind of response. What is it again?

    Oh, that’s right!

    It’s “Deflection.”’
    ————–
    So, you deflected.

  10. shellbellsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:08 pm
    Came across my first serious snake yesterday – a highland copperhead.

    As you do, sought FB advice including as to removal. Suggestion was removal may invite eastern brown to move in.

    Now feeling a little faint.
    =====================================================

    Never thought there was much overlap between those two species. When i lived in the ACT often saw Brown snakes in the bushland around Canberra, like Black Mountain. Yet only saw highland copperheads up in the ranges in Namadgi NP. Only place i remember seeing both was in East Gippsland.

  11. Team Katichsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:07 pm

    Arent most of the big gas producers here Australian based companies?
    __________________________________________

    Woodside by far the biggest local player but they too have strong foreign based shareholders.

    Shell and Chevron plus ConocoPhilips are heavily involved

  12. FUBAR says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 4:53 pm
    T
    hemunz says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 4:31 pm

    ““Why are we paying record prices when we have stacks of the stuff and international prices are so low?”

    The international market for LNG and the domestic market for gas are two distinctly different markets.”

    The NY price is probably the US domestic gas price – another separate market form the international LNG market and our domestic gas market.

  13. The AFP has issued a court summons to a Queensland man for allegedly providing false information to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) during the 2022 Federal Election period.
    The man, 41, is expected to face Brisbane Magistrates Court on 16 February, 2024, after he was summonsed on 30 January, 2024, as a result of an investigation launched following a referral from the AEC. The referral raised concerns the man allegedly provided false or misleading information to the AEC in relation to the residential address of himself and family members.
    The man will appear in court on four counts of knowingly providing false or misleading information, contrary to section 137.1(1) of the Criminal Code 1995 (Cth).

    The maximum penalty for the offence is 12 months’ imprisonment.

  14. Lol Zak Kirkup…. His parting gift to the WA Liberal party movement was the considering of any labor backbencher with a margin of 25% or under to be considered ‘shit’ and the closest thing to ‘marginal’.

  15. The NY price is probably the US domestic gas price – another separate market form the international LNG market and our domestic gas market.
    ________
    NY has that massive Marcellus shale gas zone in NY/Pennsylvania.

  16. Themunz says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:03 pm

    “The domination of overseas ownership in local production would have nothing to do with it!!”

    It doesn’t.

    The international LNG market is completely separate from the Australian domestic gas market. The factors that create the prices in both markets are almost completely separate.

    Basically the Australian domestic gas market is a relatively small market that relies on otherwise stranded assets to supply it.

    The idea that international LNG prices and Australian domestic gas prices should in anyway be directly linked just demonstrates a lack of understanding of the significant differentiation between the two markets.

  17. FUBARsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:34 pm

    In Australia there are two separate markets.
    The WA government legislated preservation for themselves from WA produced gas some time ago.
    The East coast has no such arrangements and that was a mistake.
    Qatar is possibly the largest producer and you can be sure they do not pay the price we do.
    We are being played for dills.
    The war in Ukraine initially jacked up world prices and that was used to justify the steep price rise but that dissipated a long time ago.
    Now the world price is low we are told to ignore that a just pay up?

  18. Basically the Australian domestic gas market is a relatively small market that relies on otherwise stranded assets to supply it.

    Heres the thing. The asset (the gas in Australia) is Australia’s. We shouldnt have to rely on in being stranded. There is nothing stopping an Australian government asking gas extracting and refining companies that source that gas from Australia to ensure adequate and affordable gas is available for use in Australia.

    If, as you say, our market is so small that we cant demand good deals on our own gas, are we not also small enough that such a gas allowance/reserve system wont damage the gas companies bottom-line? It could form part of the royalty deal.

    But I do want to say again…. the spot price of energy in South Australia at the moment may have little to do with the price of the gas being used to generate that electricity. To put it differently, much cheaper gas prices may do little to reduce the current high price of energy.

    As BW says, we actually do want gas prices high to encourage more reliance on renewables (perhaps – another time wrt earlier removal of coal generation). The focus could be what can be done about the huge spike we are about to face. The spike will only last an hour. If we focused on demand by having aircons set/controlled to cool in a way that spread the load through the day and turned down in that hour.

  19. First Shark repellent thanks Batman !now Snake repeller.

    You can buy a solar run unit you put in the ground of your garden and it emits a low frequency noise that repels snakes!Saw it in a catalogue last week .Bunnings sells them etc

  20. This is what Trump has actually posted on Truth Social about Taylor Swift and her boyfriend:

    “I signed and was responsible for the Music Modernization Act for Taylor Swift and all other Musical Artists. Joe Biden didn’t do anything for Taylor, and never will. There’s no way she could endorse Crooked Joe Biden, the worst and most corrupt President in the History of our Country, and be disloyal to the man who made her so much money. Besides that, I like her boyfriend, Travis, even though he may be a Liberal, and probably can’t stand me! “

  21. Team Katichsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:53 pm

    Looked at another way the lower the price for gas the less likely funds will be available to expand production.
    Solar , wind and batteries will always out compete fossil fuel generation and who knows a carbon tax might just happen:).

  22. “The Coalition wrecks.
    The Greens block.
    Labor builds.”

    Do you clack your rosary beads whenever you recite that incantation, BW? 🙂

  23. I gather that the MAGA cult is salty about Taylor Swift beginning her career as a Country singer and that she refused to become their Leni Riefenstahl has made them collectively throw their tanties so that they declare her to be a traitor in their white supremacy goals.

  24. “The international LNG market is completely separate from the Australian domestic gas market. The factors that create the prices in both markets are almost completely separate.”

    Completely incorrect on all counts.

    Well done fubar/buce/cranky.

  25. @Oliver Sutton

    Well, given that it’s an AFP investigation into an LNP politician, I expect the final outcome will that he will be cleared of all charges soon enough.

  26. Kirsdarke:

    I gather that the MAGA cult is salty about Taylor Swift beginning her career as a Country singer and that she refused to become their Leni Riefenstahl has made them collectively throw their tanties so that they declare her to be a traitor in their white supremacy goals.

    That’s definitely a big part of it.

    Some of these troglodites also seem to be really butthurt about how she’s a successful, unmarried, childless woman in her thirties instead of the god-fearing, obedient housewife and mother that she’s obviously supposed to be.

  27. Katich,

    It’s not stranded, but it is uneconomic to extract to supply only the domestic market.

    To get the required scale, an export train was established at Gladstone. For some reason, two were actually built (fecking idiocy); and export contracts with “pump or pay” clauses were included, which should not have been allowed under any reasonable national interest test.

  28. Themunz says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:52 pm

    “The WA government legislated preservation for themselves from WA produced gas some time ago.”

    Correct, but it is only a supply agreement. There is no direct price linkage between the West Australian Domestic Gas Price and the prices the LNG producers get for their LNG. They are different markets with different supply and demand constraints and therefore different prices.

    “Qatar is possibly the largest producer and you can be sure they do not pay the price we do.”

    We aren’t Qatar. You really don’t want to be Qatar.

    “The war in Ukraine initially jacked up world prices and that was used to justify the steep price rise but that dissipated a long time ago.”

    Australian Domestic Wholesale Gas prices are falling from the height of last year.
    https://www.aer.gov.au/industry/registers/charts/gas-market-prices

  29. Kirsdarke,
    I have a roughie prediction for the WA Senate vacancy. Joe Wilson. He was always spoken about as future WA Premier material until his stupid mistake advocating for destroying a delicate environment so that a freeway could be driven through it. The Liberals generally don’t care about that sort of mistake, they just need to fill their vacancies with political animals. So I wouldn’t put it past them to nominate him. He’s still relatively young as I remember. Though, of course, they could always nominate another ex-soldier. *yawn*

  30. Oh man. More press saying the umpire was correct last night. No. No he wasnt correct. When David came up to him and said ‘I did appeal’, the umpire should have registered that an appeal had in fact been made and then adjudicated on that appeal. And…. he had no right to demand the players get on with the game. It was he who was holding it up by not making an adjudication.

    Classic case of an umpire making it about him. Simple solution. ‘Oh, Mr David, sorry, I didnt see your initial appeal, I see now you are confirming you made an appeal so I will now make a decision as the next delivery hasnt started’.

  31. C@t,

    I can’t seem to find any reference to Joe Wilson on Wikipedia, do you know if he was elected to any position at the state level?

  32. There appears to be a campaign about Stamp Duty.
    7 news and Herald Sun are both pushing it, pointing out how much it has gone up.

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