Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)

More evidence of strong support for the stage three tax cut changes, but with Labor failing to make ground and facing a close result in Dunkley.

RedBridge Group has conducted its first federal poll for the year, and the movement it records since its last poll in early December is in favour of the Coalition, who are up three points on the primary vote to 38%. Labor and the Greens are steady at 33% and 13% with others down three to 16%, and Labor records a 51.2-48.8 lead on two-party preferred, in from 52.8-47.2. A question on negative gearing finds an even split of 39% each for and against the status quo, with the latter composed of 16% who favour removing it from new rental properties in future and 23% for removing it altogether. Further detail is forthcoming, including on field work dates and sample size.

Progressive think tank the Australia Institute has published a number of federal seat-level automated phone polls conducted by uComms, most notably for Dunkley, whose by-election is now less than three weeks away. The result is a 52-48 lead to Labor on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with a 56.3-43.7 split in favour of Labor in 2022. After distributing a forced response follow-up question for the unusually large 17% undecided component, the primary votes are Labor 40.1% (40.2% at the election), Liberal 39.3% (32.5%), Greens 8.2% (10.3%) and others 12.4% (16.9%). A question on the tax cut changes finds 66.3% in favour and 28.1% opposed, although the question offered a bit too much explanatory detail for my tastes. The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 626.

The other polls are from the teal independent seats of Kooyong, Mackellar and Wentworth, conducted last Monday from samples of 602 to 647. They show the incumbents leading in each case despite losing primary vote share to Labor, together with strong support for the tax cut changes. In Kooyong, distributing results from a forced response follow-up for the 9.7% undecided produces primary vote shares of 33.5% for Monique Ryan (the only candidate mentioned by name, down from 40.3% in 2022), 39.5% for the Liberals (42.7%), 15.7% for Labor (6.9%) and 7.5% for the Greens (6.3%). Ryan is credited with a 56-44 lead on two-candidate preferred, but preference flows from 2022 would make it more like 53.5-46.5.

In Mackellar, distribution of the 10.8% initially undecided gets incumbent Sophie Scamps to 32.2% of the primary vote (38.1%), with 39.3% for Liberal (41.4%), 14.8% for Labor (8.2%) and 6.6% for the Greens (6.1%). This comes out at 54-46 after preferences (52.5-47.5 in 2022), but I make is 52.7-47.3 using the flows from 2022. In Wentworth, Allegra Spender gets the best result out of the three, with distribution of 6.3% undecided putting her primary vote at 35.1% (35.8% in 2022), with Liberal on 39.0% (40.5%), Labor on 15.3% (10.9%) and Greens on 10.4% (8.3%). The reported two-candidate preferred is 57-43, but the preference flow in this case is weaker than it was when she won by 54.2-45.8 in 2022, the result being 59.2-40.8 based on preference flows at the election.

Federal preselection news:

Andrew Hough of The Advertiser reports South Australia’s Liberals will determine the order of their Senate ticket “within weeks”, with the moderate Anne Ruston tussling with the not-moderate Alex Antic for top place. The third incumbent, David Fawcett, a Senator since 2011 and previously member for Wakefield from 2004 to 2007, will be left to vie for the dubious third position against political staffer and factional conservative Leah Blyth.

• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports nominations have closed for the Liberal preselection in Gilmore, and that Andrew Constance has again put his name forward, after narrowly failing to win the seat in 2022 and twice being overlooked for Senate vacancies last year. He faces competition from Paul Ell, a moderate-aligned lawyer and Shoalhaven deputy mayor who had long been mentioned as a potential candidate for the seat, having been persuaded to leave the path clear for Constance in 2022.

Hannah Cross of The West Australian reports Sean Ayres, a 26-year-old lawyer and staffer to former member Ben Morton, has emerged as a fourth Liberal preselection contender in the normally conservative Perth seat of Tangney, joining SAS veteran Mark Wales, Canning mayor and former police officer Patrick Hall and IT consultant Harold Ong.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,288 comments on “Monday miscellany: RedBridge poll, Dunkley and teal seat polls, preselection latest (open thread)”

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  1. Oakeshott country @ #152 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 12:06 pm

    shellbell @ #101 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 11:01 am

    OC

    The overlay between lawyers and politicians was much more intense in earlier days.

    A few minutes ago I walked past the Garfield Barwick Commonwealth law courts building and the Jesse Street centre side by side in Parramatta.

    Barwick is well known. Jesse Street, in addition to her outstanding professional career, ran for the ALP in Wentworth and almost won. She was also the daughter in law, wife and mother of Chief Justices of the Supreme Court… and a bit of a communist.

    Thanks Shellbell
    Did you know that Jessie Street was the Mother in Law of Jack Fingleton? I knew Jack’s son, Grey, who died recently. He used to tell great stories about his grandmother.

    Am I right in remembering a son (?Larry) an RMO at RNSH?

  2. As to who might be the replacement for Linda Reynolds, there’s a rather large group of state Liberal MP’s that were voted out in 2017 and 2021.

    Senator Zak Kirkup, perchance? Or even Eric’s brother Peter Abetz if they want to go the full conservative gronk.

    @Kirsdarke

    Zak Kirkup recently ruled himself out running in state politics next WA state election. It doesn’t sound like someone interested in returning to public life at the moment. As mentioned Kirkup led the WA Liberals to a historic annihilation. And also gave WA state Labor the jewel in the crown of a upper house majority to scrap the gerrymander. Not sure the Liberals would reward him with a senate seat.

    Kirkup is not all to blame for the Liberals loss, but he should take alot of it. He was a young first term backbencher that took the leadership during a pandemic. He was on a wafer thin margin, and he should have made way for a safer pair of hands with Dean Nalder. Liberals would have still lost badly but Nalder may have saved more furniture.

  3. Dandy Murraysays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:26 pm
    Katich,

    “It’s not stranded, but it is uneconomic to extract to supply only the domestic market.” That’s the definition of a stranded commodity asset.

    “To get the required scale, an export train was established at Gladstone. For some reason, two were actually built (fecking idiocy); and export contracts with “pump or pay” clauses were included, which should not have been allowed under any reasonable national interest test.”

    There are three terminals. Not sure why you think that is idiocy. Since when does the Federal Government interfere with private commodity supply contracts?

  4. I see that Trump’s reptilian instincts have kicked in and he’s now sucking up to Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs. Because they won.

    That guy is so freaking predictable. So much winning! Except none that he ever does himself. He just gloms onto other winners, like the political leech that he is.

    Also, it’s good to see some Republican Senators found their spines over the weekend. I was wondering what would be the straw that broke the camel’s back with the saner members and it seems as though Trump telling Putin to take whatever country he wants to in Europe who is also in NATO, because Trump ain’t gonna stop him, was it.

  5. ” Since when does the Federal Government interfere with private commodity supply contracts?”

    To manage risk in the national interest.

  6. @Political Nightwatchman and others

    Thanks for the info about Kirkup. I was being slightly sarcastic about the replacements for Reynolds, but was also slightly curious about him being a genuine replacement, what with him being relatively young at 36 and having served as WA Liberal leader.

    With the results of the 2021 election hanging around his neck, yeah, can’t see him being the replacement now that the specifics have been laid down.

    The WA Liberals sure seem to be in quite a big mess at the moment.

  7. “Not sure why you think that is idiocy.”

    Yep three, not two – in any case, all have been running well below capacity and the gas reserves they were built for are not proven. Greedy idiocy.

  8. Dandy Murray @ #393 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 5:56 pm

    Katich,

    It’s not stranded, but it is uneconomic to extract to supply only the domestic market.

    To get the required scale, an export train was established at Gladstone. For some reason, two were actually built (fecking idiocy); and export contracts with “pump or pay” clauses were included, which should not have been allowed under any reasonable national interest test.

    Not to mention the James Price Point hub debacle. The whole point of these major projects and their exceptional planning rules was to limit the patchwork of smaller hubs damaging areas up and down the coast.

    It isnt relevant that it is or isnt economic to extract just for the domestic market. Extraction of Australian gas was being undertaken and measures should have been put in place to make allowance for domestic supply and reasonable prices. Better prices could have come indirectly via a good royalty scheme or taxes to then subsidise local use. The gas companies would still have had their lunch.

    Dont worry about FUBAR. They would like to see us more like Angola.

  9. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:37 pm

    Nup.. looked couldn’t find any spines..

    NYT..

    In a phone interview on Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina seemed surprised to even be asked about Mr. Trump’s remark.

    “Give me a break — I mean, it’s Trump,” Mr. Graham said. “All I can say is while Trump was president nobody invaded anybody. I think the point here is to, in his way, to get people to pay.”

    Senator Marco Rubio, the Republican Party’s top-ranking official on the Senate Intelligence Committee, struck a matter-of-fact tone as he explained on CNN on Sunday why he was not bothered in the least.

  10. This proposed anti-doxxing legislation is one of the most spectacularly boneheaded ideas in years, and I really hope someone has the sense to kick it off to committee and let cooler heads come up with a solution.

    There are a huge amount of ideas flying around in the press ranging from harmless ones that wouldn’t criminalise the conduct at the centre of the controversy through to ones that would have sweeping unintended consequences for minority groups, including for segments of the Jewish community.

    The “J.E.W.I.S.H.” group that was doxxed was itself the centre of allegations of doxxing – and unlike the controversy around groups like Lawyers for Israel – was alleged to have targeted private citizens. There is no legislation that would both convict the idiot who doxxed the group and not convict the specific people he doxxed (out of the broad group of which many were not) who had, in fact, engaged in doxxing – “okay for me, but not for thee” does not work as a concept in criminal law.

    If the legislation picks up the guy who did that leak, it will also pick up a whole bunch of militant Jewish activists who’ve been engaging in the same behaviour targeting doctors, teachers, etc., and on some of the broader definitions I’ve seen thrown around in the press today could even drag in conduct like that engaged in by Lawyers for Israel.

    It would also, under many of the ideas proposed, potentially criminalise all sorts of legitimate efforts to document hate groups of all shades, among a host of behaviour in the public interest. Protecting people from being shamed for things they’re doing (or their “ideas”, when they involve doing things reasonably perceived to be shameful) – and indeed, criminalising those doing the revealing, is a disastrous idea.

    There’s probably merit in the basic idea of anti-doxxing legislation, but it needs a really firm, clear debate about what that means and how to not encompass behaviour in the public interest – or even, the likes of the doxxing allegedly engaged by some in the “J.E.W.I.S.H.” group – which while I find repugnant I’m not okay criminalising, given the giant can of worms it would open.

    I have no sympathy for the idiot who doxxed that group, but this whole response has just been a completely braindead panic.

  11. Robert’s appeal ..

    Ben Roberts-Smith: ‘hard to understand’ how Afghan man died other than by unlawful execution, judge says

    Under the rules of engagement, soldiers are not allowed to kill prisoners who pose no threat.

    Owens agreed with a proposition by one of the appeal judges, justice Nye Perram, that there was only “one interpretation” for how the man was killed.
    “It’s just hard to understand how else he came to be dead,” the judge said.
    “Precisely,” Owens replied.

  12. Political nightwatchman

    Nalder May have been rated more highly by himself and people outside the party than by insiders, notably his colleagues Goiran and collier. Who call the shots.
    He didn’t contest the leadership when Liza Harvey quit, saying he knew he didn’t have the numbers. So Kirkup got gig unopposed.
    And then unloaded as he walked.
    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/dean-nalder-sounds-off-at-liberal-party-powerbrokers-20201202-p56k2b.html

  13. Barnaby Joyce’s late-night antics will drag down support for the Coalition among women, Nationals frontbencher Anne Webster has warned, while former party leader Michael McCormack has urged Joyce to open up about his medical condition and seek the help he needs.
    Joyce was filmed last Wednesday lying on his back on a Canberra street swearing on the telephone after a long parliamentary sitting day, triggering discussion in a closed-door private meeting of Nationals MPs in Canberra on Monday about the MP’s future after the latest in a long string of incidents in his political career where his behaviour has been called into question.
    Webster told colleagues she believed that Joyce had harmed the party’s standing in the electorate, particularly among female voters, fuelling existing tensions within the junior Coalition partner over how to deal with Joyce’s actions.

    Joyce, who missed the meeting of Nationals MPs on Monday morning and arrived in parliament halfway through question time, was due to meet party leader David Littleproud on Monday evening to discuss the incident.
    Webster noted the Coalition’s “woman problem” was highlighted at the last election and argued Joyce’s presence would only do more damage, according to three Nationals MPs speaking on background to recall confidential talks.
    Webster is the opposition assistant spokeswoman for regional development and regional health and an ally of Littleproud, whose leadership has been under pressure from Joyce-aligned conservatives.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-position-on-shadow-frontbench-in-question-after-video-20240212-p5f43i.html

  14. So the REIV get coverage re Stamp Duty on Memorandum of Transfer having increased over the past decade (noting this charge is not limited to residential property)

    And that it is holding people back from purchasing a property.

    Noting there are exemptions for first home buyers to (I think) $700,000- then lesser to another figure.

    Well, over a decade wages and salaries have increased, as have house prices (and as has our home mortgage debt).

    And government, with the responsibilities they have to the community, need revenue and sources of revenue to so provide those services and those utilities.

    So that is one matter.

    What is never mentioned by the REIV is where Agent’s Commissions have gone to over the same period of time – for doing precisely what?

    And invested into high end residences for self and driving the Rolls Royce as a status symbol.

    So not schools, roads, public transport infrastructure, health and allied services.

    REIV credibility?

    Nix, nought, nothing.

    And media for carrying this story exclusively from the point of view of the self interested REIV ditto.

    No doubt they will promote an enduring levy instead of an up front levy on purchase.

    To benefit self – including by pushing property prices up even more so – as the raft of hand outs post the GST and a negative GDP gave impetus to that sector receiving the hand outs government offered, because that is where the increase in house prices at the rates we have seen since came from (along with the debt)

    Thank you John.

    Thank you Peter.

  15. Dandy Murray says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:47 pm

    “all have been running well below capacity”

    Not sure where you get this from?

    “the gas reserves they were built for are not proven.”

    That’s a very old argument from the anti-gas types back in the 2010’s. Hasn’t stopped record production numbers.

  16. Team Katich says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:48 pm

    “Not to mention the James Price Point hub debacle. ”

    Some of the most deprived Aboriginal communities in Australia have missed out on hundreds of millions and the benefits that would have brought due to the cancellation. Well done Ecofascists.

  17. Itza
    Just checked. It was Bathurst not Orange (don’t conflate the two) and he is retired. Avant use him as a poster boy for taking the retirement benefit.

  18. It is funny how Taylor Swift was a wholesome girl who was rudely interrupted by that Bush-hating Kanye West at Video Music Awards 15 years ago. Now Kanye is a Trump loving who middle aged washup and Taylor is hated by the Right for being a successful young woman with young women type opinions.

    How the wheels of time turn….

  19. FUBAR @ #423 Monday, February 12th, 2024 – 6:32 pm

    Team Katich says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 6:48 pm

    “Not to mention the James Price Point hub debacle. ”

    Some of the most deprived Aboriginal communities in Australia have missed out on hundreds of millions and the benefits that would have brought due to the cancellation. Well done Ecofascists.

    I made no comment on the pros and cons of JPP. I am a fence sitter on it tbh. Mainly because I dont know the ins and outs of the legal fights within the local indigenous Council. They may well have been unfortunate involvement by outside groups. I dont know. And yes, there would have been significant benefits.

    The debacle I talk about is the way the planning instruments are used for such projects. They are designed to be ‘fast tracked’ but only because they concentrate the infrastructure and hence the damage to reduce the damage on the whole. Economies of scale stuff. But it didnt work like that.

  20. Well, Barnaby’s 56 going on 57 and has clearly been hitting the bottle for quite a long time, so if he wants to keep going down this path, his own body will probably start punishing him before any colleagues do.

  21. Socrates says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 5:13 pm
    A fitting epitaph to Linda Reynolds:

    “Serkan Öztürk ❤️❤️@SerkanTheWriter
    BREAKING

    Linda Reynolds announces retirement from politics to spend more time with her family of defamation lawyers”

    ————-

    Or maybe some consulting for AUKUS. With one of the many Australian or US based consultants expected to make many $millions from the deal. So much money to splash around.

    Reynolds, 58, in the Morrison government was Minister for Defence of Australia (2019–2021), Minister for Defence Industry Australia (2019–2019).

    Ideal for a role, with much knowledge of the Australian Defence Industry. And AUKUS decision making.

  22. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:08 pm

    “Taylor is hated by the Right”

    Utter rubbish. I think she is great – impressed by her work ethic and success. I like a couple of her songs too. My wife and daughter – both of the Right – think she is wonderful and are spending thousands along with many others who are also on the “Right” to see her.

  23. FUBAR says:
    “Getting pissed and falling over by yourself is now sexist and misogynistic?”

    Yelling ‘f**king c**t’ down the phone to one’s wife could be construed as such.

  24. Taylormade atleast said that Joyce was doing midnight yoga (savasan) on the street.
    Whereas FUBAR, who comments on anything under the sky, is quite about Barnaby. 🙂
    BTW, FUBAR doesn’t need to comment on that Barnaby pyrotechnics at midnight. 🙂

  25. Missed this clanger from Joyce.

    “”There’s no excuse for it,” he said.

    There’s a reason … they say certain things happen to you if you drink [while on medication] and they were absolutely, 100 per cent, right.”

    Admitting he knew he was going against professional advice and needed childish affirmation at the hands of his own experience to engage with the truth. Except he’s a grown and educated adult.

    It’s how he thinks about Climate Change I suppose – only believe it to be existent and relevant when it smacks you in your own stupid face. Looking forward to “there’s no excuse” for screwing over the plant when his arse in on fire.

    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/02/12/barnaby-joyce-footpath-drunk?

  26. Oliver Sutton says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:16 pm

    “Yelling ‘f**king c**t’ down the phone to one’s wife could be construed as such.”

    Depends entirely on the context, of which you have given none, and his wife certainly seems unconcerned.

  27. Ven says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:19 pm

    If you meant quiet – I have made a number of posts.

    It’s a beltway issue. I’ve seen far worse in Canberra.

  28. The Labour Party now holds a poll lead over the Tories in England’s 100 most rural constituencies in a fresh blow for Rishi Sunak. A Survation survey put Labour on 37 per cent of the vote in the traditionally Tory heartlands with the Conservatives now three points behind on 34 per cent.
    Labour support is up by 17 points when compared to the party’s performance in the seats at the 2019 general election while Tory support has collapsed, falling by 25 points. The poll was conducted between Jan 23-30 on behalf of the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).
    The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats but the findings suggest the Tories may hold onto just 43, with Labour gaining 51. Potential high-profile casualties could include Jeremy Hunt and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.

  29. FUBAR: “… his wife certainly seems unconcerned.“

    His wife, the former political media adviser?

    Sing along with Tammy now:

    “Stand by your man …”

  30. @Holdenhillbilly

    God I hope it’s Rees-Mogg that suffers the Portillo moment. That man is like the most cartoonishly evil rich snob villain anyone could ever come up with, to the point that comic book writers would be laughed out of the editor’s office if they wrote a character like him.

  31. HH:

    Gee, good thing UK Labour are playing it safe and going the ultra small-target approach, otherwise this might be a nail-biter!

  32. The “J.E.W.I.S.H.” group that was doxxed was itself the centre of allegations of doxxing – and unlike the controversy around groups like Lawyers for Israel – was alleged to have targeted private citizens. There is no legislation that would both convict the idiot who doxxed the group and not convict the specific people he doxxed (out of the broad group of which many were not) who had, in fact, engaged in doxxing – “okay for me, but not for thee” does not work as a concept in criminal law.
    _______________________________________________

    A bit of a generalised claim by you.

    Who made the allegations and what did this alleged doxxing involve?

  33. FUBARsays:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:27 pm
    Ven says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:19 pm

    If you meant quiet – I have made a number of posts.

    It’s a beltway issue. I’ve seen far worse in Canberra.
    ————————
    Coalition not learning the lesson of needing better standards.

    Canberra makes IR laws so should led by example and the coalition is supposed to be the party of professionals and managers.

  34. Would you accept a police officer wantonly firing at civilians in the hopes of clipping a criminal hiding behind them?

    If the criminal is a rapist and a murderer, then I don’t think it would be fair to blame the police in such a situation. The criminal could just surrender and then nobody would be hurt.

  35. Asha says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:49 pm
    _____________________________

    People have strong feelings. There are other outlets to express them peacefully. What makes you so special that you think you can do here what everyone else is forbidden to do by the owner of this site?

  36. nath says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 8:01 pm
    Somehow TPOF has managed to express his feelings very well.

    ______________________________________________

    Somehow Nath manages to do what Nath does best. Be a @#!#!

  37. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Monday, February 12, 2024 at 7:58 pm

    Not sure why you mention IR laws.

    Good for the Coalition to be closer to the masses.

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