The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.
The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).
Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.
In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.
Indeed, receiving a BJ is not having sexual relations, whereas giving oral would be. BUT, how does the cigar fit in with this definition?
In Larsworld, is “going high” equivalent to “adopting a lofty sneering disdain to posters he disagees with”?
B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:24 pm
“Given the success rate of the Ukraine navy with surface and underwater drones against the Russians, the AUKUS deal for submarines is looking a bit out of date.”
We aren’t planning to fight the Russians in the Black Sea. Nor an enemy at 500 km from our coast. We plan to fight them thousands of kilometres (or nautical miles) away. It has to cost them dearly to try and get close. Avoid having to fight the Battle of the Coral Sea again.
I’m not against drones. Great pieces of kit. But they do not replace the need for boots on the ground, hulls in the water and wings in the air. They are just another part of the total force.
Where does the cigar fit in? OC you are a doctor you should know.
Well, yes, I suppose one does need to be on high to look down on people.
For others, just being high does the trick.
I totally agree. I don’t see how any reasonable person could possible mount a convincing argument against that.
”It won’t be enough to criticise Labor- the LNP needs to come up with policies.”
Wrong.”
Given that most of the media act as the propaganda arm of the LNP, correct. The LNP has no need of policies. They can say what they like without regard to truth, consistency, logic or common sense, whatever they say won’t be challenged.
Nath
Yes I realised I missed an opportunity to say “where does the cigar fit in”
“We aren’t planning to fight the Russians in the Black Sea. Nor an enemy at 500 km from our coast. We plan to fight them thousands of kilometres (or nautical miles) away. It has to cost them dearly to try and get close.”
So not really defence, then, more force projection.
Or what the country on the other end might call an offensive against them in their territory.
What we might call preemptive defence and they might call an act of aggression.
A question for any bludgers expert in political science or Greens ideology.
First the background. A few days ago I wound up talking to (evidently) a Greens member in Adelaide whom I foolishly questioned the ethics of the Peace and Disarmament policy. He acted as though I had insulted motherhood.
He then recited the virtues of the fact that the policy had a long history in the Greens. The policy was the only sure way to eliminate or end wars in his view. It was based on a philosophical theory, Pragmatic Pacifism. I think this was based on the view that occupation was less harm than any war.
From my perception of history, both long term and recently, pacifism has neither avoided nor stopped wars. The claim that occupation by a hostile power is never as bad as a war also seems pretty debatable, especially if you have Ukrainian friends.
So my question is – does anyone know much about this Pragmatic Pacifism doctrine? How credible is it in political circles, and why did the Greens latch onto it? I am familiar with the 60s anti-war movement, but this seems a whole order of magnitude more extreme. I know the Swedish and German Greens recently dropped it.
Personally, I regard pacifism and militarism as opposite extremes, both being unwise. But if there is a good argument for pacifism, I’d like to hear it.
Arguing for biologically determinist bipolarity is fundamentally flawed because genetic differences between humans are so numerous as to make a nonsense of the proposition.
There are weak cis gendered men who would be beaten by strong cis gendered women and vice versa.
Your frame of reference in the debate is just whack. Try again.
Arguing for biologically determinist bipolarity is fundamentally flawed because genetic differences between humans are so numerous as to make a nonsense of the proposition.
There are weak cis gendered men who would be beaten by strong cis gendered women and vice versa.
Your frame of reference in the debate is just whack. Try again.
Rewi says:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 8:31 pm
“21 AUGUST 2023
The Albanese Government is investing more than $1.7 billion in some of the most powerful and technologically advanced weapons systems ever fielded by the Australian Defence Force.
Long-range strike missiles and other guided weapons are fundamental to the ADF’s ability to deploy enhanced strike capabilities and hold an adversary at risk at longer ranges.
To build this critical capability, the Government has decided to purchase more than 200 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States for the Royal Australian Navy’s Hobart Class destroyers, for approximately $1.3 billion.
With a range of 1,500 kilometres, the Tomahawk is a world-class long-range strike capability. Australia will be only one of three nations to have them, along with the United States and the United Kingdom.
In addition, the Government has approved the acquisition of more than 60 Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missile – Extended Range (AARGM-ER)missiles from the United States for $431 million.
These air to ground missiles are a specialised missile used to target enemy radar systems. They will be operated on the Royal Australian Air Force’s Growler and Super Hornet aircrafts and, in future, on the F-35A Lightning II fighter jets.”
https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/media-releases/2023-08-21/australia-invests-powerful-new-high-tech-missiles
Plan to fight at the place of your choosing, at the time of your choosing.
Dominating the air-sea gap has been around since the 1980’s. It’s not new.
@Socrates
Basically this 15 second skit from Black Books.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CVHKlksZIo
Rewisays:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 8:37 pm
“Arguing for biologically determinist bipolarity is fundamentally flawed because genetic differences between humans are so numerous as to make a nonsense of the proposition.
There are weak cis gendered men who would be beaten by strong cis gendered women and vice versa.
Your frame of reference in the debate is just whack. Try again.”
Rubbish. There’s a reason why sports depending on physical strength and endurance are divided into Male and Female categories. The massive advantage that male puberty infers on individuals is not negated by drug cheats taking hormones.
Rewi, love the sinner , hate the sin.
Socrates
I think your reference to contemporary Ukraine is misplaced. There the people have actively resisted since 2014.
I don’t think there are any easy answers to this.
Colonialism might give us some examples. Arguably, had any of the Indigenous peoples conquered by the British refused to lay down their arms they would have been annihilated. Are their current circumstances, for all that they are frequently dreadful, better or worse than extermination?
Is Tibet in a better position than it would have been had it fought to the bitter end?
Are the people of Northern Ireland better off for the end of IRA resistance?
If the Australian electoral system was actually democratic the Australian Labor Party would be looking at winning 47 out of 151 lower house seats based on these polling numbers.
FUBAR
That’s only part of the reason, old chap.
Good old fashioned chauvinism has the largest part to play, historically, and to an extent remains in residual. The distinction has become institutionalised.
But you go on, keep pushing the ‘men stronk, women weak’ line.
Socrates
Never argue with idiots. Ask him for his ‘satisfactory’ occupation KPIs.
Around 50,000 netherlanders starved to death during the german occupation in world war two.
The very short Japanese occupation of Indonesia cost millions (sic) of Indonesian lives – one of the worst and one of the least known of WW2 crimes.
You could have asked the ideologue how he thinks the occupation of Australia is working out for Indigenous people.
Only a man would take that stance.
Jesus, what has this place come to once the sun goes down!?
OMFG. A man is just a ‘passive’ recipient of oral sex does not equate said man engaging in oral sex, and therefore said oral sex does not constitute ‘sexual relations’?
Again, WTF has happened to this place once the sun goes down?!
Lars
In this case I was really trying to talk past the provocateur, but it’s a useful enjoinder to remember what kind of bigotry we’re dealing with, thanks.
OC,
I didn’t realise you were a medical doctor, makes sense now when you mentioned you were once neighbours with Jimmy Aitken.
Was that during his humbler days along the west back in the golden triangle, or his break out days in the lower mountains?.
They are an occasional client of ours- rarely see the big man these days but son 1 and the grandson pretty often.
Next time I see the big guy I’ll ask about a pesky, left leaning doctor that once graced the other side of his fence lol.
Rewi says:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 8:51 pm
“keep pushing the ‘men stronk, women weak’ line.”
I have a daughter who I taught how to lift heavy and she likely lifts more than most 18 year old boys. She’s an elite rower and can run and cycle up there with the best.
Over the next couple of weekends her State U21 VIII will row against schoolboy 3rd VIIIs (boys aged 15-17) as training for Nationals in 4 weeks time. Why against the 3rd VIIIs? Because they know they will get thrashed by the 2nds and firsts.
Take your men “stronk, women weak” crap and shove it where the sun doesn’t shine.
Fess
That is the argument Clinton used and it was accepted by a sufficient number of senators for him to remain as President.
”If the Australian electoral system was actually democratic the Australian Labor Party would be looking at winning 47 out of 151 lower house seats based on these polling numbers.”
If by “actually democratic” you mean “uses proportional representation” you are right.
There are different ways to operate a democracy. Ours, using preferential voting, is quite good.
Rewi says:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 9:01 pm
Lars
In this case I was really trying to talk past the provocateur, but it’s a useful enjoinder to remember what kind of bigotry we’re dealing with, thanks.
__________________________
Love is all you need Rewi.
Rewi
“I think your reference to contemporary Ukraine is misplaced. There the people have actively resisted since 2014.”
I disagree. You forget the 70 years Ukraine was occupied by the Soviet Union since the Russian Civil War ended. It had become independent at the 1917 treaty. Millions died during the occupation.
“ Colonialism might give us some examples. Arguably, had any of the Indigenous peoples conquered by the British refused to lay down their arms they would have been annihilated. Are their current circumstances, for all that they are frequently dreadful, better or worse than extermination?”
An extreme black/white option. History is full of examples of cultures destroyed during occupations whether the invasion was resisted or not. I don’t condone militarism or pacifism. If you can’t possibly win, don’t fight. Most cultures will fight if they think they can resist. Most invaders fail when resisted, at lest in the long term. Genocidal invaders are different, but pacifism doesn’t help there either.
Back to my original question – what is the basis of “pragmatic pacifism”? How is it different to pacifism?
OC: “Fess That is the argument Clinton used and it was accepted by a sufficient number of senators for him to remain as President.”
Fess, what he said. Don’t think I support what he said in any way. I rather liked his politics, but Clinton the man was clearly a scumbag IMO.
Mate (comrade)!
I ensured that he did not become the Member for Penrith.
5 days before the 1995 election, I (through head office) sent a letter to every voter in Penrith and Badgerys Creek saying what a pig’s breakfast Nepean Hospital had become under Greiner/Fahey.
He and Anne Cohen’s husband, Dick have never spoken to me since without swearing.
We were living in Orchard Hills. Interesting to know how young James developed. One thing I would not liked to be was Jimmy Aitken’s son.
‘pragmatic pacifism’ is up there with ‘practical reconciliation’.
Oakeshott Country @ #476 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 9:03 pm
And as many of us have said over the years, is clearly bullshit. I’ve no doubt Clinton was ‘cleared’ because that was how things were justified then; white men were able to use their position and their status to offer themselves as the victim. ‘oral sex isn’t sexual relations’ because I was simply an un/willing victim. Bullshit.
You only have to witness the PHON/Joyce/Trump constituency to see this is how they are rolling.
Team Katich @ #422 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 7:16 pm
And ever since Caster Semenya they have been.
Just what is going on in the US.. the right always screams fake news & fraud etc.. all the while being up to their necks in it.
From NYT.
Journal Retracts Studies Cited in Federal Court Ruling Against Abortion Pill
An academic journal publisher this week retracted two studies that were cited by a federal judge in Texas last year when he ruled that the abortion pill mifepristone should be taken off the market.
Most of the authors of the studies are doctors and researchers affiliated with anti-abortion groups, and their reports suggested that medication abortion causes dangerous complications, contradicting the widespread evidence that abortion pills are safe.
The lawsuit in which the studies were cited will be heard by the Supreme Court in March. The high court’s ruling could have major implications for access to medication abortion, which is now the most common method of pregnancy termination.
Sage said that when it had begun examining the 2021 study, it confirmed that most of the authors had listed affiliations with “pro-life advocacy organizations” but had “declared they had no conflicts of interest when they submitted the article for publication or in the article itself.”
Sage said it had also learned that one of the reviewers who evaluated the article for publication was affiliated with the Charlotte Lozier Institute, the research arm of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
meher baba @ #477 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 9:10 pm
N o he wasn’t. He did many great things for America. He was, on the other hand, an egotistical Alpha Male. Goes with the territory.
Fess
I don’t know if truth or otherwise or contemporary social mores had any role in Clinton’s impeachment trial. That all democrats voted for acquittal suggests a partisan result.
In the real world, Clinton was held in contempt of court, fined and debarred.
ajm @ #450 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 8:24 pm
Yep. leftieBrawler hasn’t realised that yet. 😐
Boerwar @ #424 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 7:18 pm
Attack of the killer voles! (-though it was probably the cat wot did it to this poor bloke). This case came flagged on PROMED (one of the global epi-intel sites I lurk) – alongside one of a cat-related case of plague in Oregon (which is a long way north of where plague is endemic in the US). Three days later both make headlines in the Gruniad. I suppose that the PROMED post on a respiratory illness in Wuhan on 31/12/19 got everyone’s attention – not that alaskapox (or plague) are going global until the warming gets worse.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 4:24 pm
Rex Douglas @ #297 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 3:22 pm
So, Bluesky is apparently open to the public.
Any users here with some pro’s and con’s …?
Pro: Run by the good guys
Cons: I hope there are none and they get their programming and software bulletproof. Maybe a con is that Elon the Ego might sue them for copyright infringement, so I hope they have that side sorted.
Another con is that I should have bought shares in Bluesky when I was offered them.
===================================================================
C@t you plugged Tribel a while ago.
https://www.makeuseof.com/what-is-tribel-social-media-app/
I bought some equity via wefunder.
https://wefunder.com/
Hope you followed up on your advice re Tribel seeing you missed out on Bluesky.
No good talking the talk!
You have to walk the walk!
RHW
I thought they had stopped tagging diseases with place names.
Team Katich @ #433 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 7:32 pm
Some great lines in that article TK:
100%
Been There,
I’ve always been too afraid to invest, in case I do my dough. 😆
Kirsdarke
“Basically this 15 second skit from Black Books.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CVHKlksZIo
Thanks, an explanation masterful in its brevity.
RHW
A random case of plague in the US will always get a headline, even though it has been endemic amongst the critters there sine the 1900s. Gotta fill the papers someway.
Late Risersays:
Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:21 pm
Regarding BlueSky, I see a bakeoff coming. Tribel is another. Just as in PCs and phones, there will eventually be only two major players. (Apple vs Microsoft for PCs, and Apple vs Google for phones.) The second player might be BlueSky, or Tribel, or any of a bunch of others. It’s also possible that the micro-blogging “space” will just fragment, and eventually learn how to inter-operate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microblogging
I’ll put in a plug for Mastodon, which is a federated system linking thousands of individual services. (A decent analogy is email. No single organisation has the world’s emails, but anyone can email everyone. Your email provider makes it work.) There are lots of users. (I get most of my Ukraine info from posters in Europe who connect using European servers.)
Pro: You can follow hashtags or people or both.
Pro: Free. No “blue ticks”.
Pro: Lengthy posts are allowed.
Pro: When twitter renamed to X lots of people opened accounts on a Mastodon server. There are tools (I’m told) that allow you to post in both at the same time.
Pro: People are polite. (depends on server)
Con: You have to find and sign up to a server. There’s no central server. (Google them.)
Pro: “aus.social” is an Australian run service. (It suits me.)
Con: Mr Tup’s “truth.social” is also a mastodon service.
Pro: It’s blocked by almost all the others in the federation, so you can ignore it.
=================================================================
Good call there Late Riser!
I’ll take all of that on board.
Gotta be savvy!
c@t: have you read Christopher Hitchens’s book about the Clintons? Unfair in places, but the overall picture it presents is not pretty.
I’d like to think that a lot of alpha males display more restraint and respect in their treatment of women than Clinton appears to have done.
Yep, take it far enough and you get cases like this where adults think a 9-year-old girl looks too butch so they demand she prove that she’s a girl.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9765882/couple-kelowna-track-meet-incident-central-okanagan-schools/
Socrates at 9.10 pm
“If you can’t possibly win, don’t fight.”
That is one of the basic principles of the Just War Theory, which in simple terms is a middle position between militarism and pacifism.
The problem is that most applications of Just War Theory are incoherent, because they are itsy-bitsy.
In fact, according to the Theory, you need all criteria to be met for a particular war to be really just.
A simple list of the criteria is at: https://ethics.org.au/ethics-explainer-just-war/
E.g. take the Catastrophe-that-cannot-be-discussed: the JW Theory requires proportionality in war (jus in bello) as well as a just cause for fighting (jus ad bellum); that catastrophic war has a just cause but not just means (proportionality) so it doesn’t qualify. Minister Wong is increasingly agitated about the lack of proportionality; as is Biden, now that it is clearly affecting his re-election chances.
Those are the elemental terms. The JW Theory is a bit more complicated, but it is usually abused or misapplied, rather than applied coherently. Hence alternatives to pacifism are too often incoherent.
As Rewi suggested, much depends on context. But much also is missing in terms of basic coherence.
I’m interested to know whether anyone here’s been in contact with a supremely banal & generally idiotic piece about Taylor Swift in today’s Adelaide Advertiser? If there’s a point to it at all it seems that Ms Swift has reneged on her bounden duty to visit this fair town, resulting in economic disaster. The piece itself is so weird I can’t begin or be bothered to describe it, but worth a squiz if your taste runs to truly strange pieces of writing.