The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.
The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).
Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.
In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.
Mass power outage puts spotlight on sturdiness of transmission towers
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mass-power-outage-puts-spotlight-on-sturdiness-of-transmission-towers-20240213-p5f4lr.html
c@tmomma: “The ACT needs to consider going up more, rather than out. Though, it’s a balancing act and some new suburbs will have to be created somewhere at some point in time.”
My impression is that apartment construction has gone gangbusters in the last two decades: every time I visit, I see all these massive multi-storey apartment buildings that weren’t there last time I looked. But the rate of population growth in Canberra is extraordinary: when I first moved there from Sydney in the mid-1980s, the population was a bit over 250,000, but now it’s nearly double that.
It’s all down to pretty much uncontrolled growth of the public service. Howard cut it sharply when he first got into office, but let it rip towards the end of his time as PM, and no subsequent government has done anything to trim it back. I think it would be timely for a bit of downsizing, as it’s not necessarily the case that having lots more people in the policy-making areas of government leads to better outcomes: as was shown by the Robodebt saga, in which umpteen dozens of highly paid senior public servants were involved but none of them were able to do anything to stop it.
MB: “And I still don’t think personalised attacks on other posters are warranted and are, in fact, rather absurd …”
Couldn’t agree more.
Last Saturday I posted a factual comment that Menzies had been enthused by a visit to Hitler’s Germany: a historical fact supported by the documentary evidence of what Menzies himself said in a letter.
That triggered an aggressive response from FUBAR which, inter alia, perversely accused me of being antisemitic. (I couldn’t follow the ‘logic’ of how saying someone else was enthused by Hitler made *me* antisemitic: but hey, it’s FUBAR …)
So yes, I fully agree with your proposition that uninformed personal attacks have no place here.
I’ve had plenty to do with Liberals over the years Meher. Probably as much as you. Outside politics Ive even counted some of them as friends.
The on thing they all have in common though?
They are all entrenched playrs in the 80 year old marketing scam that is the Liberal Party: hoovering up the bounty of a whole continent, selling it to foreigners for a song (but this is the important bit) – ensuring that they – and their bunyip establishment mates get a nice little wedge of said foreign profits on the way through, then cosplaying with the local media, marketing and advertising industries a repeat of a series of lies: starting in WW2 – that the liberal party stands for ‘the forgotten people’ (a 5 year gaslighting campaign against the wartime Curtain-Chifley government orchestrated by the Melbourne Adverting industry at the behest of Casey), more recently ‘Howard’s battlers’, ‘Morrison’s tradies’ and in its metastasised late stage 4 form parading endless cultcha wars: all designed to get a large enough slice of a feckless population to vote against their own interests and that of the nation as wealth and opportunity gets hoovered up for the benefit of a very small cliche.
As to the prospect that their party may be going down the drain? Rejoice! Rejoice!
Russian Nuclear Weapon in Space: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said “there is no need for public alarm” after House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) called on President Biden to declassify information about a “serious national security threat.”
“I saw Chairman Turner’s statement on the issue and I want to assure the American people, there is no need for public alarm,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday. “We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified.” “We just want to assure everyone: Steady hands are at the wheel, we’re working on it, and there’s no need for alarm,” he added. The Speaker would not reveal specifics of the threat, saying he was “not at liberty to disclose classified information and really can’t say much more.” He did, however, say he is meeting with national security adviser Jake Sullivan at the Capitol on Thursday, along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Turner and Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.), the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee.
The US is likely to deploy nearly half of its aircraft carriers in the western Pacific this year, in a signal of deterrence against the increasing military activity in the region by China and North Korea, analysts said.
Three US aircraft carriers are already operating in the western Pacific Ocean, with two more on the way. Their arrival will mark the first time that five of the 11-strong carrier contingent have operated in the region.
The USS Abraham Lincoln – part of the US Navy’s Pacific Fleet – was spotted heading out of its home port in San Diego, California and was sailing towards the western Pacific as of February 5, according to the US Naval Institute’s Fleet and Marine Tracker.
The USS George Washington is also expected to be deployed in the region to replace the USS Ronald Reagan, which will be relocating from Yokosuka, Japan for maintenance at the Puget Sound naval shipyard in Washington.
The USS George Washington was the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to be deployed to Japan, where it served from 2008-15 before it was relieved by the Ronald Reagan for the midlife refuel of its two reactors, as well as repairs, upgrades and modernisation.
‘Nearly 15% of Americans don’t believe climate change is real, a new study out of the University of Michigan reveals …’
(I once worked with an academic psychologist who had a throwaway line about ‘the 15 percent of the population who are certifiably insane’.)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/14/americans-believe-climate-change-study
Andrew_E:
You have such a wonderful way with words!
Holdenhillbilly @ #550 Thursday, February 15th, 2024 – 7:02 am
So, what do you do about this, meher baba? Make them wait in order to keep the size of the Public Service down? Or flog the ones that are there, harder? We are a growing country, so, of course the size of our Public Service needs to increase commensurately. It just needs to be managed in the best interests of all concerned.
The only submarine that Ukraine attacked was in dry dock, and hit with (probably) Storm Shadow missiles. I don’t see how that relates to AUKUS.
Can you spot the difference between AI generated and actually human generated break up text messages?
I scored 7/9.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2024/ai-chatbot-breakup-text-quiz/?itid=hp_ts-1-sallys-mix_p001_f008
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
If Peter Dutton is to have any hope of realising his ambition to resurrect the Liberal Party at the next federal election, he needs to win seats like Dunkley. The coastal electorate in Melbourne’s south-east is, after all, the sort of territory marked out as future Liberal heartland to replace the inner-urban seats lost to independents and the Greens, writes Niki Savva in a welcome return.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-not-only-should-win-the-dunkley-byelection-he-needs-to-win-it-20240213-p5f4o1.html
There have been plenty of terrible tax decisions made over the years by federal governments of both political hues. But the Coalition and Labor are in lockstep with one that is undermining the Commonwealth and imposing a huge cost on all taxpayers by putting politics way ahead of the interests of the country and the budget, writes Shane Wright about the WA deal on GST sharing. He says, this “dog of a deal means we’ll all pay $50 billion to keep Western Australia happy”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dog-of-a-deal-means-we-ll-all-pay-50-billion-to-keep-western-australia-happy-20240212-p5f468.html
John Kehoe agrees that we’re paying more tax for the Liberals’ GST fiddling.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/we-re-paying-more-tax-for-liberals-gst-fiddling-20240213-p5f4j7
Australian workers who stick with their employer are costing themselves up to $7500 a year in lower wages, ground-breaking research has found, amid signs a growing number of people are not moving around the jobs market, explains Shane Wright.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/job-handcuffs-costing-workers-7500-a-year-in-lower-wages-20240213-p5f4nb.html
Gale force winds have yet again toppled transmission lines, raising questions about the ability of the electricity grid to cope with climate change, explains Mike Foley. I hope it’s not too complex an article for the likes of Matt Canavan to understand.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mass-power-outage-puts-spotlight-on-sturdiness-of-transmission-towers-20240213-p5f4lr.html
Adopting entrenched political positions will not change the physics of the climate and energy crisis facing the nation, says Nick O’Malley.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/wind-or-sun-coal-or-nuclear-we-need-a-stronger-grid-and-a-better-debate-20240214-p5f4z6.html
Victoria’s blackout wasn’t the fault of renewables, but a sign of a system working as it should, argues Grahan Readfearn who points out that, even as the weather emergency was still unfolding, some commentators and politicians couldn’t resist the urge to blame renewable energy.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/15/victorias-blackout-wasnt-the-fault-of-renewables-but-a-sign-of-a-system-working-as-it-should-temperature-check
Meanwhile, Josh Gordon writes that Victoria’s energy security will remain dependent on one of the least reliable generators on the east-coast grid for another decade. Energy analysts are warning that a heavy reliance on the largest remaining coal-fired power plant – Loy Yang A – has left the state increasingly vulnerable to blackouts caused by unexpected outages.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-s-power-dilemma-reliability-resilience-and-a-40-year-old-plant-20240214-p5f4xk.html
Tim Buckley declares that Victoria’s blackout crisis is rooted in a decade of Coalition inaction.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-blackout-crisis-is-rooted-in-a-decade-of-coalition-inaction-20240214-p5f4xg.html
Alan Kohler asks, “Can we get the politicians out of climate change policy too?”
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/02/15/alan-kohler-politicians-climate-policy
“Remember the Reserve Bank’s $356 billion bond purchase program? Probably not, but it’s costing us $40 billion or so and achieved bugger-all. As far as mistakes go, it’s not a small one”, explains Michael Pascoe.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/02/14/michael-pascoe-rba-waste-policy
“It has been obvious for some time now that this is the most left-wing government we’ve ever had, certainly the most left wing since Gough Whitlam. But it’s starting to look like it might also be the most incompetent ever”, begins Peta Credlin in her regular sore loser spit. She’s on the bandwagon about the 149 foreign criminals released after a High Court decision.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/inept-andrew-giles-shows-anthony-albanese-is-the-true-weak-link/news-story/e7911f3d284916fcea440373d525b65e?amp=
Negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount were either meant to improve affordability and failed – or their purpose was in fact the opposite, writes Greg Jericho who goes to the awful truth at the heart of Australian housing policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2024/feb/15/the-awful-truth-at-the-heart-of-australian-housing-policy
Lisa Wilkinson has won the day, writes Jacqui Maley, but she says a messy legal battle still has a long way to run.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/wilkinson-wins-the-day-but-messy-legal-battle-still-has-a-long-way-to-run-20240214-p5f51d.html
Michaela Whitbourn describes what was a bruising win by Wilkinson against Ten.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/watch-live-ten-under-microscope-as-wilkinson-fights-for-legal-costs-20240213-p5f4nr.html
Wilkinson’s Logie speech may have been misjudged – but Network Ten should have stood by her, says the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/celebrity/wilkinson-s-logie-speech-may-have-been-misjudged-but-network-ten-should-have-stood-by-her-20240214-p5f4u2.html
The AIMN’s Grumpy Geezer begins this light heated contribution with, “The L/NP tree-house club, like many RWNJ organisations, is defined by what it’s against rather than what it’s for – where conservatism is a constant battle for preservation of the status quo; where anti is easy, and initiative is hard. It’s where bias beats brains.”
https://theaimn.com/thugs-army/
As a criminal barrister with a special interest in drug law reform, Robert Richter has watched in horror as Australia’s prohibitionist stance on vaping has helped create another thriving black market, controlled by criminal networks. As history has shown with alcohol and illicit drugs, he says, harsh restrictions simply shift the market from legal retailers to criminals and unregulated black markets. This is precisely what’s unfolding in Australia with vapes.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-a-vaping-barrister-violent-criminals-have-seized-this-market-20240209-p5f3o7.html
The Australian Defence Force is thousands of people short of its staffing targets, putting the nation’s military under intense strain as it confronts heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the risk of conflict between global powers. Matthew Knott reports that the ADF’s workforce crisis has pushed the government to explore ways to allow foreigners to serve under the Australian flag, slash recruitment times by 200 days and ease daunting fitness standards for recruits.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/defence-force-under-stress-as-chief-reveals-true-extent-of-staff-crisis-20240214-p5f4xp.html
Two of the nation’s top three selling cars will struggle to survive the imposition of the government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standards, due to the limited capacity of their manufacturers to offset emissions, industry experts predict. The Ford Ranger, the nation’s top-selling car in 2023, and the Isuzu D-Max, the third highest-selling car, sit atop a “red list” compiled by one of the nation’s premier motoring organisations which has graded the impact of the policy on various marques and models.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/australia-s-top-selling-cars-most-at-risk-from-new-standards-20240214-p5f4qz
A surge in working holidaymakers has increased challenges for the Albanese Government to curb net migration numbers, writes Abul Rizvi.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/working-holidaymakers-continue-strong-contribution-to-net-migration,18326
Australian Swifties travelling to Melbourne and Sydney for Taylor Swift’s highly anticipated Eras Tour have been left high and dry after being told their Airbnb bookings were cancelled, only to find the properties re-listed on the site at a much higher price. What arseholes!
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/music/airbnb-price-gouging-leaves-taylor-swift-fans-locked-out-of-accommodation-20240214-p5f4re.html
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is moving to criminalise doxing after the ‘Z600 breach’, which saw the names of 600 Zionist creatives leaked, along with transcripts of coordinated attacks on Palestine supporters. Farah Abdurahman adds perspective to the hysteria.
https://michaelwest.com.au/doctors-doxed-albanese-to-criminalise-doxing/
Joe Biden has sought to assure global allies that America remains a reliable partner, despite its political instability ahead of this year’s presidential election. Farrah Tomazin reports that, speaking after Donald Trump said he would encourage Russia to attack NATO countries that didn’t spend enough on defence, Biden hit out at his predecessor for what he described as “dumb”, “shameful”, and “un-American” comments.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/biden-says-trump-has-bowed-down-to-a-russian-dictator-with-nato-comments-20240214-p5f4qv.html
Europe and the US are drifting further apart – and Britain will be left to flounder, warns Rafael Behr.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/europe-us-britain-uk-foreign-policy-eu-washington-donald-trump
Paul Krugman tells us why Biden should talk up the US economic success/
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/why-biden-should-talk-up-us-economic-success-20240214-p5f4wk
The US supreme court may turn this election into a constitutional crisis, writes Sidney Blumenthal who says that, by dodging the question of Trump’s eligibility for re-election, the court could force a dangerous situation on to Congress.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/14/us-supreme-court-trump-election-sidney-blumenthal
Donald Trump is “unhinged” and “diminished”, said Nikki Haley, the former president’s last rival for the Republican presidential nomination, yesterday. At last, she’s putting the boot in!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/14/nikki-haley-interview-trump-unhinged-military
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Andrew Dyson
Glen Le Lievre
John Shakespeare
Dionne Gain
Cathy Wilcox
Leak
From the US
‘But it’s starting to look like it might also be the most incompetent [government] ever”, begins Peta Credlin in her regular sore loser spit.’
The Peta Credlin who was secretary to a Cabinet meeting that had no papers on the agenda?
The Peta Credlin namechecked in the subtitle of Niki Savva’s book, ‘How Tony Abbott and Peta Credlin destroyed their own government’?
That Peta Credlin?
In breaking news
The Swift has landed … Tullamarine at 0100.
Let the music begin!
Totally agree BK re your assessment of AirBnB owners who cancelled people’s bookings at the last minute just to have them relet at higher prices.
Disgraceful. These parasites should be kicked off these platforms permanently.
The Conservatives face an electoral wipeout that would see them lose more than three-quarters of their seats, according to a mega-poll.
The bombshell survey of 18,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs, which would be the party’s worst result in history. Seventeen Cabinet ministers would be ousted with casualties including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.
The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997. According to the poll, Labour has 42% support giving it a 20 point lead over the Conservatives on 22%.
Speaking of Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce and Donald Trump and the unhinged, brainwashed Trumpists, there’s just been a mass shooting at the Kansas City, Missouri celebrations for the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl win. 2 dead and 8 injured so far. 😡
Donald Trump is a cancer on American society. As is Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, Mike Johnson, JD Vance, Lindsay Graham, Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, NewsMax, Fox News, the Evangelical Churches, and the rest of the Rabid Right Wing ecosphere.
sceptic: “Jericho slips the boot in again… Howard what dun it.. destroyed affordable housing.
Prior to June 2000, if you made a capital gain (ie a profit from an investment) you discounted the profits by the level of inflation over the period of the investment before paying tax.
Then Howard (and Costello) changed it to being a straight 50% discount.
If you bought a property for $500,000 and 10 years later you’re able to sell it for $1m at a profit of $500,000, rather than pay tax on the whole $500,000, you only pay tax on $250,000. The other $250,000 is yours, tax free.
That is about as sweet as it gets.
This change made speculating (sorry, “investing”) in housing very lucrative.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2024/feb/15/the-awful-truth-at-the-heart-of-australian-housing-policy”
———————————————————-
Grog is always worth reading and, unlike some other economic commentators, he has a reasonable grasp of the facts: although he lost me a little bit when he began the article by saying that the Productivity Commission was created 26 years ago (it was actually 36 years ago : a Hawke Government initiative, not Howard Government one).
He’s mustered all his data quite well, but I do wonder if he is to some extent confusing association with causation.
When the CGT discount was changed in 2000, nobody knew what the future average inflation rate was going to be. Certainly short-term investors who were looking to make quick gains were clearly benefited by the change, but I suspect most of these focused more on the share market (where the same negative gearing and CGT rules applied) than on housing. But long-term investors really had no way of knowing what the long-term situation would be in terms of inflation. If your intention was to buy a property and retain it for, say, 15 years, the old system might conceivably have been more beneficial than the new one. Nobody knew for certain at the time.
Grog doesn’t provide any data on the proportion of dwellings that shifted from owner-occupiers to private landlords over the period. The data I’ve seen suggest that the proportion of owner-occupied dwellings in Australia has fallen from 69.5 per cent in 2001 to around 66 per cent today. This sounds bad, but we’ve had an unprecented influx of migrants over that period and also a massive increase in the number of apartments, which are more likely to be rental properties than are freestanding houses.
To me, the most striking thing in Grog’s graph are two big jumps in housing prices that I don’t think had anything to do with the CGT rules.
1) in 2014, when the cumulative impact of the significant lift in the annual migrant intake introduced by Rudd; and
2) the massive jump in housing prices during COVID, presumably fuelled by greater effective demand as household savings rose due to the lack of anything to spend them on.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m strong of the view that the 50 per cent discount was too generous and should be changed: although, as I’ve argued on here before, I’d favour going to a lower flat rate (say 10-15 per cent that is applied to all income derived from capital gains, regardless of a person’s other income in that year.
But I’m not convinced that the CGT discount has had anything other than a marginal impact on house prices, and would look for an explanation mainly from the good old laws of supply and demand. I think the main loser from the CGT discount has not been prospective home buyers, but government revenues.
meher baba says:
Thursday, February 15, 2024 at 7:04 am
c@tmomma: “The ACT needs to consider going up more, rather than out. Though, it’s a balancing act and some new suburbs will have to be created somewhere at some point in time.”
My impression is that apartment construction has gone gangbusters in the last two decades: every time I visit, I see all these massive multi-storey apartment buildings that weren’t there last time I looked. But the rate of population growth in Canberra is extraordinary: when I first moved there from Sydney in the mid-1980s, the population was a bit over 250,000, but now it’s nearly double that.
It’s all down to pretty much uncontrolled growth of the public service. Howard cut it sharply when he first got into office, but let it rip towards the end of his time as PM, and no subsequent government has done anything to trim it back. I think it would be timely for a bit of downsizing, as it’s not necessarily the case that having lots more people in the policy-making areas of government leads to better outcomes: as was shown by the Robodebt saga, in which umpteen dozens of highly paid senior public servants were involved but none of them were able to do anything to stop it.’
=======================================
Under the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments policy numbers have deliberately been decoupled from policy effectiveness. There are a couple of furphies in your post. Around two thirds of the ACT’s workforce are NOT in the APS. This proportion is a growing trend.
At an operational level, Robodebt had little to do with policy wonks. The vast majority of public servants involved in Robodebt were lower level APS service delivery staff in Services Australia. It is why they featured with devastating impact during the RC.
As for ‘uncontrolled’ growth in the public service under Labour… bullshit.
It is deliberate.
Labor has employed an extra 3,000 people to try to cut hang time on phones. This is a massive quality of life measure for the often desperate people on the other end of the phone. IMO, this has been largely unsuccessful to date. The new CEO sounds like he means to fix this.
Labor has employed an extra 700 people to try to cut Veterans Affairs waiting lists. Successful.
Labor has employed an extra (unknown number) to try to cut passport delays following the Covid backlog. Partially successful.
Now there are ideologues who will tell you that Labor is just like the Coalition and that it does not care about the poorest Australians. The above figures are a stark reminder that Labor DOES CARE.
OTOH, and he means it, Dutton has promised to cut APS staff. The poorest Australians had better get used to waiting on phones and hang ups once again should Dutton become prime minister.
Which reminds me. The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments gutted the policy effectiveness of the APS. It was deliberate, systematic and persistent. De facto this has translated into a disruption between policy staff numbers and policy effectiveness. I doubt that a couple of years of any government trying to fix this would be enough. It will probably take a decade to get anything like the old APS levels of policy skills back.
Other than that, one consequence in the rapid growth of the ACT is that biodiversity is cot case with more and more natural areas being covered with the built environment.
OTOH, on the highest single priority policy matter in the globe, the ACT’s static energy is sourced 100% from renewables.
Pueo says:
Thursday, February 15, 2024 at 7:04 am
Mass power outage puts spotlight on sturdiness of transmission towers
Critical energy grid infrastructure may not be built to withstand intense storms driven by climate change, experts warn following the downing of a 40-year-old transmission line that contributed to Victoria’s widespread power outages.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mass-power-outage-puts-spotlight-on-sturdiness-of-transmission-towers-20240213-p5f4lr.html
——————-
Definitely driven by climate change. As were the strong winds which destroyed the pylons in September 2016 in South Australia.
Roughly the same latitude.
Dunkley residents should be made aware of this. The increased extreme weather we and they are experiencing.
Who has the best policy to make change, stop burning fossil fuels?
The 22 Republicans who broke with their party on Ukraine, Israel aid package, a fine-grained analysis. Free to read:
https://wapo.st/3HWG9Ns
Irene
Not a problem. Advise your Dunkley residents that:
The Greens have a track record of shouting about climate action and then blocking climate action.
The Coalition has destroyed climate action.
Labor is delivering 43/30 and zero net fifty.
Irene,
Considering it will take The Greens forever and a day to ever become the government of the day, it’s probably best if Labor continues to carry the legislative can on dealing with Climate Change. You can dream about who would do a better job, but it’s just that, a dream. Certainly not an idea based in reality on the ground.
c@t and BW: Services Australia is not what I’m talking about. Only a small proportion of them are based in Canberra. An extraordinarily high proportion of APS employees in Canberra are now at the EL1 level of above. It’s a large an extremely well-paid population. And much of the Canberra private sector sells exclusively to the public sector.
With both the power and the NBN restored I waa able to read an article at 9 Entertainment on Negative Gearing asserting that rents had not increased by as much as interest costs and referencing certain suburbs
There is reference to the Cash Rate increasing from 0.1% to 4.35% over a short term (really, when no monthly increase has been more than o.25%)
What is not mentioned is the level of debt
And what is not mentioned is the amount of equity the individual on Title had in the property as at the purchase date
By extension, what is not mentioned, is is the borrowing interest only or is it serviced by principal plus interest repayments to liquidate the debt over 25/30 years
And again, by extension, what is not mentioned is when was the property purchased and what was the Cash Rate then – because as the 30 Year Graph of the Cash Rate identifies the Cash Rate has had a 7 in front of it most recently in 2007
The Negative Gearing tax minimisation strategy is not a post the Cash Rate being at 0.1% event – it dates back well before that
Then there is the reference to migration, paused during the pre vaccine Pandemic period when the Federal Government of the time closed our International borders (except to some)
So there has been a “catch up” including students to our educational assets (which now as profit centres rely on student numbers) and to perform menial tasks as identified across our communities
One factor raised which is of note is that shared accomodation in the World of a Pandemic is on the wane
But the core of debt levels etc etc which finance the increase in property values is not detailed
What we do know is that banks continue to lend, assessing risk
And that there housing loan debt has a reduction factor because loans are repayable over 25 to 30 years – so there is a significant roll back factor to be covered before you get to a net increase
And then there is the fact that post 2000 and the GST leading to one negative quarter of GDP, and a government doing whatever to evade a headline that the GST has plunged the Country into recession, impetus was given to the home market, by Grants to buy etc etc (First Home Owners Grants as an example) driving the market then inflation
The RBA 10 year data shows what we borrowed from our home mortgage lenders jumped from $335 Billion in 2000 to $1.226 Trillion in 2010, a 350% increase noting the GFC of 2008 stalling lending
And that debt funded an increase in house prices – simple as that
This was down to a deliberate action by government – and where the result can not be reversed absent the Nation being bankrupted and worthless
So the equation is servicing and the ability of citizens to service, including by paying rent if they are renters
The price side of the equation can only be stalled from here – stalled because of the servicing equation and that is not going to happen – too many earn far to well including as households for this to ever happen
Supply?
For which demographic of society therefore where geographically then compared to population growth, where as a Nation of basically immigrants we now have a population of 27 million (by context how many Cities have populations in excess of this including in China?)
So Australia is sparsely populated – noting its geographic size
Education, the ability to earn accordingly (including trades( and the ability to service in the market “gifted” to us to evade a GST recession in 2000
The other question I do not have answer to is how Australia compares to other developed Nations post 2000 – noting the impact of the GFC which impacted house prices elsewhere but not in Australia, exposed to debt levels so go hard and go fast because of those debt levels
As a summary the article at 9 Entertainnent is concocted trash around popular narratives which do not address the fundamentals – and typically so
Then, who is invested into our aged energy sector, why and why have the assets become so delapidated?
Plus the reason for inflation, dating from the change of government in Ukraine continues, pressuring commodity and agriculture costs
So the abating of inflation will have bumps and curves the overall trend line the focus
Inflation appears overnight – as the First Global Oil Crisis instructed but it takes far, far longer to mitigate
As with the GFC where the impacts still linger (so bank lending to a sub prime market, sub prime because of servicing ability being problematic)
History teaches us lessons
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, February 15, 2024 at 8:08 am
Irene,
Considering it will take The Greens forever and a day to ever become the government of the day, it’s probably best if Labor continues to carry the legislative can on dealing with Climate Change. You can dream about who would do a better job, but it’s just that, a dream. Certainly not an idea based in reality on the ground.
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As usual, no comprehension of the problem that burning fossil fuels causes heating gases in our closed atmosphere causing these extreme weather events.
Labor is doing effectively nothing.
Climate 200 nay be the one to benefit, not just The Greens, who I notice first preference polling has their vote increasing to 14%, while Labor falls to 31% in the latest Essential Poll.
Labor falling to almost lowest ever.
Labor doing a lot wrong. Who are similar to the Liberals – we can’t touch or effectively tax these fossil fuel companies causing the problem – over 25 homes burnt out near the Grampians, loss of power to 300,000 homes..,,
The fossil fuel companies are paying nothing for this damage. We the taxpayer should take the burdon says Labor.
Bad policy.
Regarding inflation (and compound interest), a rule of thumb is that something compounding at x% per annum doubles in about 70/x years.
So at the middle of the Reserve Bank’s preferred inflation band, prices double in about 70/2.5 = 28 years. For a longer term investment held over a typical term of, say, 10-15 years, the CGT discount is a pretty good deal (50% vs 22% at 10 years).
On the other hand, at an inflation rate typical of the 1970’s/80s (7-10%), which in 2000 was recent memory, the doubling time is 7-10 years.
If we are expecting inflation to remain mostly below 3% and nearly always below 5%, the CGT discount of 50% is very generous.
‘meher baba says:
Thursday, February 15, 2024 at 8:15 am
c@t and BW: Services Australia is not what I’m talking about. Only a small proportion of them are based in Canberra. An extraordinarily high proportion of APS employees in Canberra are now at the EL1 level of above. It’s a large an extremely well-paid population. And much of the Canberra private sector sells exclusively to the public sector.’
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LOL. You don’t get to frame the agenda. Your framing cage is faux.
I WAS talking about the policy levels and I WAS talking about the controlled growth of the public service under Labor.
Oh and I see that you have been suckered by an another Coalition meme. There is a lot of poverty in Canberra.
Irene,
Again with the disinformation!
Firstly, I don’t see the Climate 200 candidates taking government any time soon, they’re not even a party. So your specious suggestion that they are the solution to the current crisis is again dashed on the rocks of reality. It’s not going to happen any time soon, if ever. Labor are the only party of government who can do anything about Climate Change right now, when it needs to be done. But continue floating around in your groundless bubble, you have a right to your opinion.
Here we go again says:
Thursday, February 15, 2024 at 8:17 am
…
So Australia is sparsely populated – noting its geographic size …..’
———————————–
*Groans*.
So is Antarctica.
Taking into account any and all measures of sustainability, Australia is badly over populated.
From Dawn Patrol (thank you again BK):
”Gale force winds have yet again toppled transmission lines, raising questions about the ability of the electricity grid to cope with climate change, explains Mike Foley. I hope it’s not too complex an article for the likes of Matt Canavan to understand.”
Might privatisation have a part in all this. Prices surge, level of service plunges and all the rest. Spending on maintenance is one of the first things targeted, minimised to the extent permitted and possibly beyond, with profitability, not customer service, being the main game.
Here we go again @ #575 Thursday, February 15th, 2024 – 8:17 am
What history mostly teaches us is that we don’t learn from history.
Meanwhile, Josh Gordon writes that Victoria’s energy security will remain dependent on one of the least reliable generators on the east-coast grid for another decade.
_____________________
Keep chugging away old girl.
We would be lost without you.
“Fuber earlier in the day was denigrating the First Nation people and I don’t like it.”
Hey Muskiemp, definitely with you on the comments yesterday morning, both wrt Australian first nations and the ANC abhorent. But I’m neither a fan of aparthied nor cultural erasure so I would be.
Not being a white supremacist either I found the start of the day on that topic beneath contempt and then the day seemed to end with a transphobic panic that would be right at home in Russia or Florida.
I wouldn’t however endorse your moderator management technique, anyone crazy enough to keep these comments open should just be thanked.
Fed labor incompetence after 18 months in gov ,1 million welfare claims waiting to be processed delaying the most vulnerable payments.
Mind you labor has also driven rents for millions of Australians through the roof via putting immigrants before locals.
Labors actions reveal they do not care about the less well off if they did the above would not be happening.
Dunkley is quiet libs need to get out there and sell themselves more.
Swift did not make it to WA we got LIZZO!
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. On those tower stories posted by yourself and Pueo:
“ Critical energy grid infrastructure may not be built to withstand intense storms driven by climate change, experts warn following the downing of a 40-year-old transmission line that contributed to Victoria’s widespread power outages.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mass-power-outage-puts-spotlight-on-sturdiness-of-transmission-towers-20240213-p5f4lr.html
As I said yesterday, this is only half right. Frednk also made some comments on this. The 120 km/hr wind speeds the towers experienced are well below the 146 km/hr design wind speed for southern Australia. These towers should not have failed, but did. We have too much aging infrastructure that has not been upgraded over time to match modern standards.
Climate change has already necessitated the upgrading of design rules for higher temperatures, higher wind gusts and more intense rainfall. The CSIRO warned of those dangers and the need to change back in the 1990s. We mostly didn’t. So we now have a lot of vulnerable systems.
In future, design standards and these systems will need to be upgraded further, the more we fail to stop climate change advancing.
Labor aren’t much better either.
No one would be surprised by the latest shooting in the USA.
It’s almost expected. Sigh…..
Meanwhile Taylor Swift has arrived in Melbourne town. My youngest who is a heavy metal fan, likes her music as well!
Swifties come in all shapes and sizes!
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has proposed to his longtime girlfriend Jodie Haydon on Valentine’s Day. He took to X to announce the news on Thursday morning.
Meanwhile Melbourne uni and RMIT had a swift posium this week
https://swiftposium2024.com/
Holdenhillbilly @ #588 Thursday, February 15th, 2024 – 8:58 am
Aw!
Albo steals the news cycle
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1757884255643033715?t=TIy30RNCkDYo_OtnDgXxyg&s=19
The US intelligence has revealed that Russia has new nuclear capabilities, but not clear how developed it is.
Seriously I thought Putin would have exited stage left by now.
And that goes for the orange menace as well.
Interesting, I never thought Albo would get remarried.
You have to ignore the usual “Superpower” nonsense …
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/02/15/alan-kohler-politicians-climate-policy
It makes me cringe every time I see this, because it means the author thinks they need a headline grabber to get their message out, which – in turn – means they think Australians are not yet going to be interested in the issue unless they to throw in an appeal to our “Best in the World™” narcissism.
However, apart from that lapse, Alan Kohler is on the money …
Indeed. And even with a change of government, it is still true. Labor supported every pathetic climate change policy the COALition ever came up with, and so we were always going to end up being stuck with whatever policy happened to be on the table when the music stopped. And it was one without the most important element …
The polling must have suggested a marriage was a good move . Will it be a civil or a church wedding?
Will Kyle Sandilands be invited ?
Pied piper @ #584 Thursday, February 15th, 2024 – 8:51 am
Bullshit. More lies from the ‘eternal present’ Liberal playbook. It’s going to take a federal Labor government more than a couple of years to clean up the mess the Coalition government made over a decade of dismantling an efficient Public Service and outsourcing it to profit-hungry mates.
Victoria @ #592 Thursday, February 15th, 2024 – 9:02 am
It takes a while to get rid of the worst, most resistant weeds and cockroaches.
C@t
Surely it’s about time that these pests were gotten rid of. This whole shit show has been dragging on for far too long…….
Kansas City shooting
Unconfirmed reports say ‘up to 90’ dead.
Can anyone clarify? ABC says 1 dead and 9 injured…
Lots of mixed reports coming out of the States etc.