Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)

More static poll results in the wake of the tax cuts revamp, of which more than half say they know little or nothing.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.

The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).

Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.

In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)”

Comments Page 8 of 38
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  1. Oliver Sutton @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:16 pm:
    ========================

    Oliver, I’ve seen in FUBAR a tendency to unhitch their thoughts from both historical facts and their own past statements, whichever serves their immediate rhetorical purpose.

  2. Regarding BlueSky, I see a bakeoff coming. Tribel is another. Just as in PCs and phones, there will eventually be only two major players. (Apple vs Microsoft for PCs, and Apple vs Google for phones.) The second player might be BlueSky, or Tribel, or any of a bunch of others. It’s also possible that the micro-blogging “space” will just fragment, and eventually learn how to inter-operate.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microblogging

    I’ll put in a plug for Mastodon, which is a federated system linking thousands of individual services. (A decent analogy is email. No single organisation has the world’s emails, but anyone can email everyone. Your email provider makes it work.) There are lots of users. (I get most of my Ukraine info from posters in Europe who connect using European servers.)

    Pro: You can follow hashtags or people or both.
    Pro: Free. No “blue ticks”.
    Pro: Lengthy posts are allowed.
    Pro: When twitter renamed to X lots of people opened accounts on a Mastodon server. There are tools (I’m told) that allow you to post in both at the same time.
    Pro: People are polite. (depends on server)
    Con: You have to find and sign up to a server. There’s no central server. (Google them.)
    Pro: “aus.social” is an Australian run service. (It suits me.)
    Con: Mr Tup’s “truth.social” is also a mastodon service.
    Pro: It’s blocked by almost all the others in the federation, so you can ignore it.

  3. Oliver Sutton says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:16 pm

    “You’ve changed your story since yesterday.”

    Yep. It had not been previously disclosed that the Channel 10 Management and Legal had fully vetted and supported her speech. Until then, the only public information was that it was her own speech.

  4. FUBAR @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:22 pm:
    ==========================

    Okay, so when facts change you change your opinion. Fair enough. But what facts about the 1998 partisan Republican impeachment of President Clinton have changed between then and today to cause you to falsely assert that it was the Democrats who started the political weaponisation of impeachments?

  6. “Okay, so when facts change you change your opinion. Fair enough. But what facts about the 1998 partisan Republican impeachment of President Clinton have changed between then and today to cause you to falsely assert that it was the Democrats who started the political weaponisation of impeachments?”

    Even if Clinton hadn’t started it, it is just barking mad to suggest that Trump’s impeachments were anything but exactly what any sane person of either party would have expected.

  7. Macarthur says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:31 pm

    So, you believe that he did not have sexual relations with that woman?

    It’s the coverup that gets them.

  9. WeWantPaul @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:38 pm:

    [me:] “Okay, so when facts change you change your opinion. Fair enough. But what facts about the 1998 partisan Republican impeachment of President Clinton have changed between then and today to cause you to falsely assert that it was the Democrats who started the political weaponisation of impeachments?”

    [WWP:] “Even if Clinton hadn’t started it, it is just barking mad to suggest that Trump’s impeachments were anything but exactly what any sane person of either party would have expected.

    The normal”
    =======================

    WWP, just checking: that means you agree it was the Republicans in 1998, and not the Democrats more recently, that fired the first shot in politically weaponised impeachments?

    BTW, I completely disagree with FUBAR that the impeachments of Trump were inappropriate or simply partisan anyway. Misusing the office of POTUS to attempt to bribe/coerce a foreign government to dig up dirt on a political opponent is a pretty damning wrongdoing, if true. (Kudos to President Zelenskyy, by the way, for standing up to Trump’s ‘protection racket’ threats.) And inciting an insurrection against the Government is, well …

  10. P1,

    “THE REST OF AUSTRALIA: Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ”

    Oh for farks sake, the ALP’s policy is called ” Rewiring the Nation.”

  14. C@t,

    What if I say it?

    Miles is a clown.

    He might have some good policy chops, he has some good team members behind him, but he is seen as a boofhead. I’m concerned.

  15. The 1974 Impeachment of Richard Nixon, which was halted when the President resigned, was to address charges of serious crimes supported by extensive, credible evidence. Hardly political.

    Before that, you have to go back to the 19th century.

  16. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:20 pm

    The claim that he hadn’t been afforded natural justice is in the article.

    The fact that he had multiple opportunities comes from the details gained from following the trial closely.

    “Drumgold made a lengthy written 80-page submission to that inquiry.

    He attached exhibits to his statement that numbered more than 200. In the interests of fairness and transparency, submissions by the various parties making allegations about other parties were circulated to other parties, including Drumgold.

    In other words, the chief prosecutor had advance warning of the possible lines of questioning in the witness box.

    Further submissions could be made to Sofronoff by any of the parties, including by Drumgold, at any time during this inquiry on matters the subject of this inquiry.

    In May, Drumgold gave ­evidence over many days in the witness box.

    He was represented by a very experienced silk, and former senior crown prosecutor, Mark Tedeschi. The barrister cross-examined many of the other witnesses who gave evidence during those public hearings. Oral submissions were made by Tedeschi defending his client throughout the inquiry.

    In June, Drumgold was provided with a 10-page Notice of Proposed Adverse Findings putting him on notice of what Sofronoff may find given evidence revealed to the inquiry.

    Drumgold responded, in more than 100 pages, with submissions to Sofronoff as to why those findings should not be made.

    In order words, Drumgold received procedural fairness – in spades. Indeed, given the findings about Drumgold by Sofronoff, one could put it this way: more effort was put into ensuring this would be a fair inquiry than Drumgold, as the ACT chief prosecutor, put into ensuring a fair trial for Bruce Lehrmann. Drumgold should have known what was headed his way. All he needed was self-awareness.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/fair-go-for-shane-drumgold-case-springs-a-giant-leak/news-story/e6097590b08e92c1306f27df88e9f3ab

  17. One could argue the first Trump impeachment was partisan, even though it was a complete abuse of power of his office. However the second one though, if inciting a riot to prevent the election being certified isn’t grounds for impeachment, then nothing is.

  19. FUBAR @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:39 pm:

    “So, you believe that he did not have sexual relations with that woman?

    It’s the coverup that gets them.”
    =======================

    Are you saying any time a politician says something untrue, they deserve to be impeached?? Why has Trump been impeached hundreds or thousands of times, then???

  20. Macarthur @ #350 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 5:21 pm

    Oliver Sutton @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:16 pm:
    ========================

    Oliver, I’ve seen in FUBAR a tendency to unhitch their thoughts from both historical facts and their own past statements, whichever serves their immediate rhetorical purpose.

    Abso-freaking-lutely. It’s how he evades responsibility for getting it wrong. If you challenge his assertions, he either evaporates and then comes back later or the next day and carries on as if the challenge never happened. Moves right along and starts the next day’s jousting. Rinse and repeat.

    It’s why I’ve pegged him as a former policy/media adviser for a WA Liberal. It’s how THEY operate. It’s all about challenging Labor positions, just for the hell of it. He may be wrong and Labor may be right, but you can never cop to that. He marks out his territory and he never backs down, never surrenders. You know, like well-rounded humans do. He’s like a Liberal automaton. And he lies without blush like a Liberal too. Bullshit he’s not Compact Crank and Bucephalus too. And if he’ll lie about something as simple and straightforward you would think an admission should be, then what else is he prepared to say here on behalf of his tribe? Because that’s all that it’s about with him. Raw, tribal politics. He’s not willing to learn, be informed or entertain other points of view. He just wants to best the Lefties until he has worn us down and we surrender to him.

    Well, no way, FUBAR, no how. Not this little black C@t. And that’s for sure and all.

    Game on! From now until the election. You can come here every day and prosecute your case with the rest of us. But you will never intimidate us into silence.

  22. Craig Emerson@DrCraigEmerson:
    We really are emulating Trumpism in Australia when conservative politicians and commentators seek to blame renewables for transmission towers getting blown down during storms

  25. Albanese could use the deepening of our relationship with Indonesia as a major positive point of difference to the L/NP, who trashed our regional relationships.

  26. C@tmomma @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:52 pm:

    “… It’s all about challenging Labor positions, just for the hell of it. He may be wrong and Labor may be right, but you can never cop to that. He marks out his territory and he never backs down, never surrenders. You know, like well-rounded humans do. He’s like a Liberal automaton. And he lies without blush like a Liberal too…”
    ===========================

    Yep. FUBAR’s claims belong straight in the bin with all the other garbage. If you want truth or facts, don’t ask FUBAR.

  27. “WWP, just checking: that means you agree it was the Republicans in 1998, and not the Democrats more recently, that fired the first shot in politically weaponised impeachments?”

    I am pretty sure the Clinton process was entirely triggered by improper partisan politics, and not a genuine desire to address a real and serious issue with his Presidency, but I’m not sure given the improper effort they didn’t find real problems it might not have been unreasonable to impeach Clinton over, but having said that I think it was open to a reasonable Senate not to convict.

    So I’m a little torn over that one. But it is pretty clear the republicans veered further and further from good governance to the worst kind of partisanship, and equally true that in most aspect the dems haven’t committed, at a Federal level anyway, similar crimes against democracy and good government.

    But if the USA had a functioning Justice system, rather than an absurd and corrupt legal system, Trump wouldn’t have been able to run for President because he’d have been in jail. Their system is clearly incompetent to deal with white collar crime and corruption, and on the corruption front the Supreme Court seems entirely bipartisan in its willingness to redefine corruption so that people of power and privilege don’t have anything to worry about. The US Supreme Court is right up there with the Legal system in Pakistan, but they think they are running something that is still working.

  28. Dandy Murray @ #363 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 5:49 pm

    C@t,

    What if I say it?

    Miles is a clown.

    He might have some good policy chops, he has some good team members behind him, but he is seen as a boofhead. I’m concerned.

    That’s a strange perspective to take because I read that he knew that he was the court jester in the Palaczsjuk government but that was his role and he relished taking it up to the Coalition. However, now that he is Premier he has resolved, or so he promised, to take the job seriously and to tone all that down.

    Clowns can take off the face paint you know, and should be allowed to do so.

    Anyway, if you want my honest opinion, I just think the the Qld state government are at the stage, pre-divorce from the electorate, where people are just getting the irrits with them because they have been in power for so long. And the equivalent of hating your partner because they never put the toilet seat down for you after they have had a piss. Anything seems to be grinding their gears. I mean, you can explain until you are red in the face that youth crime is down from 20 years ago, but you want to believe David Crisafulli because you want to elect him for no other reason than you’re pissed off with Labor. So you’ll go, yeah! right on, David! 😐

  29. ”We really are emulating Trumpism in Australia when conservative politicians and commentators seek to blame renewables for transmission towers getting blown down during storms”

    It’s all the wimpish renewable electrons that leaked across the interconnector from SA, weakening the towers…

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:48 pm

    “Indonesia should be our No 1 foreign policy and national security consideration.”

    No, not really. I wrote a paper on this many years ago and not much has changed.

    Yes, it is important to be good neighbours – but there are far more important relationships than with Indonesia.

    Yes, there’s lots of people. But they aren’t even close to unlocking their potential yet. Yes, we should continue to develop relationships. Doing business there is still very difficult due to both overt and covert corruption.

    Yes, it’s on our strategic approaches. Are they in anyway a threat to us? No. Although Islamic Terrorism has been and continues to be a risk. I worked with their Marines and Kopassus and they are very competent. Their biggest focus is maintaining internal control of their +2,000 islands and disparate ethnic groups. They have zero force projection capability that would concern Australia.

  32. Boerwar @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:48 pm:
    “Indonesia should be our No 1 foreign policy and national security consideration.”
    —————————

    Rex Douglas @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:54 pm:
    “Prabowo seems to offer us more stability than Trump would offer.”
    —————————

    Rex Douglas @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:57 pm:
    “Albanese could use the deepening of our relationship with Indonesia as a major positive point of difference to the L/NP, who trashed our regional relationships.”
    ===========================

    BW & Rex, I wholeheartedly agree with all of the above three statements of yours.

  33. What’s with all the ganging up on FUBAR? He’s a Liberal, so what? He’s a more rational and gracious one than many I’ve encountered online.

    I hate this sort of schoolyard s__t. If the Labor Party is so damn wonderful, it can withstand a bit of criticism on a web forum.

  35. “He’s like a Liberal automaton. ”

    That is giving a lot lot more credit than is due. The liberal automations aren’t morons, they’ve won most of the elections this century, mostly by lying and avoiding saying most the stupid that flows constantly, but still they have won.

  36. Holdenhillbilly @ #370 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 5:54 pm

    Craig Emerson@DrCraigEmerson:
    We really are emulating Trumpism in Australia when conservative politicians and commentators seek to blame renewables for transmission towers getting blown down during storms

    Like I was saying before, Liberals just see every occurrence as a political opportunity to beat Labor about the head with the policies that the Coalition don’t like. It’s got nothing to do with facts. Just raw, thuggish politics.

  37. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:50 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:20 pm
    ====================================================
    Fubar says: “Can you believe the temerity of Drumgold to claim he wasn’t afforded natural justice when he had multiple opportunities to make representations including having seen the draft of the final report?”
    ======================================================

    He was not given a draft copy of the report he could respond to though. Before it was released. Which is central to his complaint.
    Your statement saying he did is not supported by anything you say in your 2nd post either. Which just says he was allowed to put in submissions. He was warned of an adverse finding but there is zero evidence he was offered the chance to respond to those allegations prior to the report being released.

  38. Statement from AEMO:

    14 February 5pm statement
    Power restoration progressing in Victoria
    Today, electricity crews have made significant progress in restoring power to thousands of properties in Victoria that suffered power outages due to yesterday’s storms.

    Approximately 127,743 homes and businesses remain without power in Victoria due to destructive winds across the state, down from 280,000 this morning and a peak of 530,000 yesterday.

    Vegetation clearing and repairs to damaged powerlines and poles continue. However, given the extent of the widespread damage, it may take days or more than a week in extreme circumstances to restore electricity to all of those impacted.

    For safety reasons, please do not approach fallen powerlines and call the faults and emergency number for your electricity distribution company on your electricity bill.

    Victoria’s electricity distribution businesses have provided the following outage numbers as at 5pm:

    Distribution Business
    Network Area Customers without power
    AusNet Services
    Outer east and outer northern Melbourne, eastern and north-eastern Victoria
    112,272
    CitiPower Melbourne CBD and inner suburbs
    50
    Jemena
    North-west Melbourne
    8
    Powercor Australia
    Outer western suburbs of Melbourne, and central and western Victoria
    3,229
    United Energy
    South-east Melbourne, and Mornington Peninsula
    12,184

  39. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:02 pm

    So, we can ignore the Albotross on winning the election saying that he was there to represent all Australians?

  40. meher baba @ #381 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 6:03 pm

    What’s with all the ganging up on FUBAR? He’s a Liberal, so what? He’s a more rational and gracious one than many I’ve encountered online.

    I hate this sort of schoolyard s__t. If the Labor Party is so damn wonderful, it can withstand a bit of criticism on a web forum.

    Using your argument, FUBAR should be able to stand a bit of criticism on a web forum. He’s not a protected species BECAUSE he’s a Liberal. And he’s not as ‘butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth’, as you proclaim, meher baba. Do you want some examples? There’s plenty.

  42. Dandy Murraysays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:52 pm
    There’s 170,000 customers without suppy in Victoria. No surprise electricity is in surplus.
    =======================================================

    Not necessarily, if generation capacity was still effected the fact that domestic demand was lower might not make much difference. Most of those customers went offline yesterday afternoon. Yet after they were shed, Victoria was still requiring the import of lots of electricity from other states. Though obviously being a much cooler day in Victoria is a big factor too.

  44. c@t: “Using your argument, FUBAR should be able to stand a bit of criticism on a web forum. He’s not a protected species BECAUSE he’s a Liberal. And he’s not as ‘butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth’, as you proclaim, meher baba. Do you want some examples? There’s plenty.”

    There’s been a pile-on this arvo. He’s just a poster on a web forum and there’s only one of him. I’m sure he doesn’t care, but I think it’s unseemly. He has made some strong criticisms of things other posters have said, but I can’t recall him ever playing the man. I’d be interested to see your examples.

  45. meher baba @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:03 pm:

    “What’s with all the ganging up on FUBAR?”
    ======================

    If you’re referring to me, my question to FUBAR was whether they acknowledged they made a false allegation that Democrats ‘started’ the political weaponisation of impeachments in the US HOR – nothing to do with Liberal/Labor.

  46. C@tmomma
    Here is the news of Pakistan government formation

    Pakistan to get unity government, Nawaz Sharif picks brother Shehbaz Sharif as PM

    Following a tumultuous national election that resulted in a hung parliament, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has emerged as the nominee to lead Pakistan’s next government, formed by a new coalition alliance.

    https://www-indiatoday-in.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/story/pakistan-election-new-coalition-government-nawaz-sharif-nominates-shehbas-sharif-prime-minister-candidate-pmln-ppp-pti-2501768-2024-02-14?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17078875782763&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.indiatoday.in%2Fworld%2Fstory%2Fpakistan-election-new-coalition-government-nawaz-sharif-nominates-shehbas-sharif-prime-minister-candidate-pmln-ppp-pti-2501768-2024-02-14

    ”
    • The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), with 53 seats, has pledged its support to Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N, which secured 75 seats, signalling an end to the impasse following the inconclusive elections. The coalition also extended an invitation to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to participate in the reconciliation process.

    • The Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P), which bagged 17 seats, has pledged full support to Shehbaz Sharif’s PML-N in an effort to ‘strengthen’ democracy. To govern, a party must secure 133 out of the 265 contested National Assembly seats. Together, the PML-N, PPP and MQM-P have the numbers to form a unity government.

  47. As an example of what mastodon finds for me because I follow #Ukraine
    —
    Ukrainska Pravda :verigold:
    @pravda@mstdn.social
    Russian landing ship Caesar Kunikov hit in Black Sea, it has sunk – intelligence sources
    …snip…
    Source: Ukrainska Pravda sources in DIU
    Details: Ukrainska Pravda sources reported that it was a DIU operation, resulting in the sinking of the Caesar Kunikov.
    (with pictures)
    https://mstdn.social/@pravda/111928542131846277

  48. “Not necessarily, if generation capacity was still effected the fact that domestic demand was lower would not make much difference. ”

    But it’s not, so what’s your point?

  50. meher baba @ #392 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 6:10 pm

    c@t: “Using your argument, FUBAR should be able to stand a bit of criticism on a web forum. He’s not a protected species BECAUSE he’s a Liberal. And he’s not as ‘butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth’, as you proclaim, meher baba. Do you want some examples? There’s plenty.”

    There’s been a pile-on this arvo. He’s just a poster on a web forum and there’s only one of him. I’m sure he doesn’t care, but I think it’s unseemly. He has made some strong criticisms of things other posters have said, but I can’t recall him ever playing the man. I’d be interested to see your examples.

    If I wanted to go back and quote back to you some of the things he has called me, I would. But I don’t want to waste any of my precious time doing it. But I can guarantee you that he has, and he has done it to others. He may be, the only Liberal in the village, bar your own good self, but he acts like he’s cock of the walk and that just gets under people’s skin.

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