Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)

More static poll results in the wake of the tax cuts revamp, of which more than half say they know little or nothing.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll adds to an overall picture of static voting intention despite the government’s income tax overhaul, with Labor down a point on the primary vote to 31%, the Coalition recording 34% for the sixth poll in a row, the Greens up a point to 14% and One Nation steady on 7%, with undecided steady on 5%. Respondent-allocated preferences nonetheless cause Labor to perk up a little on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has Labor up two to 50% and the Coalition steady on 46% (again with 5% undecided), Labor’s biggest lead on this measure since the start of October.

The poll also includes the monthly leaders’ favourability ratings, with differ from the separate approval ratings in inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This gives Peter Dutton his strongest result so far, with a four-point increase among those rating him seven or higher to 32% and a four-point fall in those rating him three or lower to 33%. Anthony Albanese improves slightly from December, when he recorded the weakest results of his prime ministership, with 33% rating him seven or higher (up one) and 35% three or lower (down two).

Questions on the tax cut changes confirm what was already established in finding 56% in favour and 16% opposed, while telling us something new with respect to awareness of them: only 10% consider they know a lot about the changes, with 37% for a bit, 40% for hardly anything and 13% for nothing at all. The poll also found 59% per cent for the “right to disconnect” laws working their way through parliament with only 15% opposed. Other questions cover fuel efficiency standards, party most trusted on tax, the importance of keeping election promises and the ubiquitous Taylor Swift, who scores a non-recognition rating of 3%.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52-48, but this is due to changes in respondent-allocated preferences rather than primary votes, on which Labor gains one-and-a-half points to 34.5% – its strongest showing from Morgan since October – with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 37% and 12% and One Nation down half a point to 4.5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1699.

In by-election news, of which there will be a fair bit to report over the next six weeks, the ballot paper draws were conducted yesterday for Queensland’s Inala and Ipswich West by-elections on March 16, which have respectively attracted eight and four candidates. Ipswich West is a rare no-show for the Greens, who are presumably more concerned with the same day’s Brisbane City Council elections. Further crowding the calendar is a looming state election in Tasmania, which is covered in the post above.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,858 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 50, Coalition 46 (open thread)”

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  1. Macarthursays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 4:42 pm
    C@tmomma @ Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 4:32 pm:
    ==========================

    25th of January noted down.

    My son’s marriage day. 🙂

  2. Somebody has “coal” on the brain

    If coal were a sentient being I’d strongly encourage it to go down to the local police station and file for restraining order.

  3. meher babasays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:10 pm

    I have occasionally played the man – but claim extreme provocation in my defense (including extreme stupidity by the target of my displeasure).

    Thanks for the support.

    They don’t like it up ’em.

  4. c@t: “He may be, the only Liberal in the village, bar your own good self…”

    I’m not a Liberal. I wouldn’t vote for Dutton in a pink fit.

  5. Darwin and the Tiwi Islands have the largest and most visible transgender community in Australia- the aboriginal sister- girls.

    Pretty sure Price couldn’t care less.

  6. Dandy Murraysays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:16 pm
    “Not necessarily, if generation capacity was still effected the fact that domestic demand was lower would not make much difference. ”

    But it’s not, so what’s your point?
    ====================================================

    The point is that some people were criticising Victoria’s generation capacity on this blog. My point is it seems to be fully restored now and even supplying electricity to other states. Thus reducing somewhat the very high electricity prices Queenslanders are currently suffering under now. Even if this is not being done directly.

  7. FUBAR: “I have occasionally played the man – but claim extreme provocation in my defense (including extreme stupidity by the target of my displeasure).
    Thanks for the support.
    They don’t like it up ’em.”

    My position is that I really enjoy a heated debate over issues, but feel an enormous sense of boredom and disdain when posts start appearing along the lines of “doesn’t everyone agree that poster Z is a moron?” or banging on about how they’ve been sent to PB from Menzies House and similar crap.

    It’s a group of people – many of whom I suspect are, like me, on the wrong side of 60 – behaving like a group of schoolkids passing notes to each other about how the the kid they don’t like has smelly poos. Why would anyone want to read that sort of stuff.

  8. MB…
    Those who come here over the long haul know what to expect and how this joint works.
    FUBAR understands this place as well as anyone. He is provocative – no problems with that. He has stated he is strongly on the conservative side of politics and as he has said himself, is quite able to “play the man” viz his weak “Albatross” jibe.
    The “pile on” you talk about is clearly a result of a tactic used by souls like F to stick it to the – mainly – left of centre lot here. I have no problem with that – but spare me the “feel sorry for the guy” blurb from yourself….

  9. @ C@tmomma 600pm
    Spot- on comment , C@t
    The media here in Qld are pushing the ” old and tired government ” as expected .
    As usual, of course, they neglect to mention that the LNP Opposition is old and tired. Anyone with an open mind would take a look at Crisafulli’s team and conclude that it is tired . Where are the fresh and bright young faces coming through the ranks of the LNP?
    In comparison, APs retirement has enabled Miles to bring in new, fresher faces to his team. He has realised the government needs change.
    His policy announcements are examples of the changes needed for this state in a time that requires changes and progressive government.
    One must ask Crisafulli about his plans for Qld in the 21st century.
    Will a Crisafulli government proceed in a progressive manner that both this State and Nation need?
    Unlikely, when one looks at a tired and stale shadow cabinet, along with its fundamentalist religious cohort pulling strings behind the scenes.
    Will he knock out the progressive royalty scheme to placate his Mining company supporters?
    In line with current LNP/ coalition policies, will he fight renewable energy progress, support the State’s ageing coal power Stations, let land- clearing return to Newman’s destructive ways, enable even more coal mines than Labor have done( to Labors disgrace, mind you) and try on the old ” public service reduction scheme”?
    Miles need to keep on coming with more progressive policy announcements .
    Sooner or later ( probably later) , Crisafulli needs to counter with his proposals. It won’t be enough to criticise Labor- the LNP needs to come up with policies. And it won’t do to leave
    it until Election Launch eve, with an increasing number of voters voting early.
    I think it highly likely Labor will lose seats in the North but can the LNP take seats off Labor in urban areas? Will the Greens take seats away from Labor? In the event of a tied House, who will any Greens, Independents or even Katters team support?
    There is much water yet to flow under the bridge and plenty of time for both sides to drop clangers.
    As for Miles the clown- no longer. It is up to him to show that he can handle government effectively. As for Crisafulli- well, he’s an unknown quality, and promises can only do so much. Maybe the heat on in an election campaign will be revealing for both leaders.

  10. Tricot: “He has stated he is strongly on the conservative side of politics and as he has said himself, is quite able to “play the man” viz his weak “Albatross” jibe.”

    So a weak jibe like “Albatross” makes him worthy of ad hominem attacks?

    The main problems I see on this forum (and in other online environments for discussion) are people who seem to take deep personal offence at any post that they disagree with, and consequently lash out at the poster. Yes, the poster might be stirring a bit, but why take offence and start calling them names?

    Anyway, I have to go off and do something else now. I’ll check in later to see if A_E has turned up to give me a verbal tongue-lashing (as the late, great Rex Mossop used to put it).

  11. Thus reducing somewhat the very high electricity prices Queenslanders are currently suffering under now. Even if this is not being done directly.

    That’s the big Q for me. Do the interconnectors reduce prices? Remember that the Victorian spot price was $16600/MWh when at the same time South Australian prices were negative – South Australians were being paid to use energy and charged to feed it in. That is a huge price difference across a “national” grid.

    Yes, interconnectors certainly improve the grid. And hopefully they allow faster closures of fossil fuel powerstations (it is rumoured that the NSW-SA interconnector under construction is partly responsible for proposed the early closure of a gas PS in Torrens Island). But reduce costs? I am not so sure. I am becoming quite cynical about it all – thinking that National Energy Market is akin to the Orwellian Ministry of Truth.

    Having 2 or 3 batteries with a big solar array and being on a real time energy contract does reduce your prices. But I suspect that wont last, the supply charges will rise to flush money out of those peeps too. The “market” is just too full of companies trying to make a profit (from retailers, to distributors to generators). It isnt in their interests for prices to drop significantly.

    Nationalise the b@st@rd.

  12. FUBARsays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:23 pm
    meher babasays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:10 pm

    I have occasionally played the man – but claim extreme provocation in my defense (including extreme stupidity by the target of my displeasure).
    =========================================================

    Call me stupid but i don’t get your justification here. If the person you are arguing with is extremely stupid, as you suggest. I would expect it is very easy to win your argument without resorting to playing the man. In my experience people tend to play the man when their argument is failing. So they resort to playing the man as they don’t have any good counter argument to the rebuttal of their argument that they are faced with.

  13. ‘FUBAR says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:02 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 5:48 pm

    “Indonesia should be our No 1 foreign policy and national security consideration.”

    No, not really. I wrote a paper on this many years ago …’
    ———————————
    It depends on your time frame. I take the long view.

  14. I just got UComms robo polled again. This time it was not seat specific. Questions were primary vote next election, primary vote at last election, how did I vote in Referendum, question on Stage 3 changes, most important issue at upcoming election, a question on Dutton’s role in the referendum making a difference to my opinion of him, Electric car rebates.

  15. ‘torchbearer says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:27 pm

    Darwin and the Tiwi Islands have the largest and most visible transgender community in Australia- the aboriginal sister- girls.

    Pretty sure Price couldn’t care less.’
    ——————
    Her first policy pivot after helping Dutton destroy the referendum was a sally at trans issues. I am not sure but I believe there may be something fundy going on.

    One might think that closing the gap and the horrific situation in some NT communities might have piqued her policy interests as a priority seeing as she is the ‘Shadow Spokesperson for Indigenous Australians’.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/racism-transgender-athletes-and-her-pm-ambitions-price-speaks-out-20231102-p5egw6.html

  16. Oh FFS. So we cant focus on indigenous recognition in the constitution because it detracts from the real issues of closing the gap. But we must talk about trans athletes? OMG what a world these peeps live in.

    Trans athletes is not an issue. The sports associations and athlete leaders are best placed to deal with this. It is clearly in their interest to facilitate inclusion, increase participation and ensure fairness and safety. Leave it to them and keep the political ratbags and their culture wars out of it.

  17. Given the success rate of the Ukraine navy with surface and underwater drones against the Russians, the AUKUS deal for submarines is looking a bit out of date.

  18. Lars you’ve got a great philosophy , one that I’ve adopted of late. It’s a shame more people at Pb aren’t subscribing to “when they go low I go high”

  19. meher baba says:
    “What’s with all the ganging up on FUBAR? He’s a Liberal, so what? He’s a more rational and gracious one than many I’ve encountered online.”

    I simply called out FUBAR for his 180 degree pirouette on Wilkinson vs Ten.

    Yesterday Wilkinson was refusing to accept responsibility despite being paid ‘millions’.

    Today, what was Ten thinking, having cleared Wilkinson’s speech through their legal eagles? He knew that all along, apparently.

    FUBAR responded to me with a bullshit excuse about Ten’s legal OK of Wilkinson’s speech not being known when he posted, Easily falsified by a simple check of reporting yesterday and prior.

    As the old saying goes, ‘You’re entitled to your own opinion, but you’re not entitled to your own facts’.

  20. Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:22 pm

    If you don’t see the problem with males competing as females and taking their records etc then I can’t help you.

  21. BS fairman,

    It’s hardly fair to single out individual aspects of modern warfare that have seemingly been made redundant since the dawn of a whole new tranche of modern weaponry came to age in the Ukraine conflict. Entire playbooks need to be rewritten moving forward.

  22. Rossmcg @ #429 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 6:52 pm

    Team Katich

    I just read this

    Trans phobics targeting park run! A social run in a park on a Saturday morning!

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/feb/14/why-have-rightwingers-made-even-parkrun-a-battleground-for-trans-people

    Haters gonna hate.
    Thats all these grubs have. Hate and anger at the other. It helps bind them and blind them. Something they share with a certain 1930’s European political entity.

  23. Team Katich says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:32 pm

    I don’t hate them. I’m friends with some. One acted as a cater for our kids for some time. Happy for people to be who they want to be. But I draw the line at biological males competing against biological females – it is unfair.

  24. BS Fairman

    I am all for the RAN and RAAF getting drones, especially since it is an area of technology Australia is genuinely good at.

    However the drones compliment rather than replace subs. In fact, subs are an ideal way to carry them near an enemy and launch them. Also drones can’t (yet) kill subs. Its a lot harder than hitting ships.

  25. FUBAR, the sports governing bodies will deal with it. They already are. And they will deal with it sensitively and try to encourage inclusion in other ways. It is such a non issue. I mean, men and women compete against each other in many social and junior sports as it is. It only matters in elite comps and where safety is of concern.

    As for hate – I didnt specify you. I am referring to politicians who are tyring to make a name for themselves by highlighting this non-issue. Singling out trans people like this in such a public and political way is detrimental to those people who are already vulnerable – for what appears little more than political benefit (considering how few people it effects). that seems hateful – or at least, playing to peoples fears and anger.

    Like it or not, the human population is not made up of clearly defined males and females. And sport should be open to all. But yes, some sports will make judgements to exclude at some levels. others will be happy to have the competitors – the more the merrier.

  26. I concur Lars.

    Part of the problem with a particular, exceptional, strain of human such as you, me and the former Stasi chief is that we love too much, it exhausts us.

  27. The charge against Clinton was perjury which presumably fits the description of a high crime and misdemeanour.
    Much of the trial came down to a definition of the phrase “sexual relations”

    I don’t think the impeachment was unreasonable or particularly partisan.

  28. Probably in hindsight if Clinton had of been removed from office it might have been a positive thing. Gore would probably rode a wave of disgruntlement to victory in 2000. And nobody would ever have doubted that the president is above the law.

  29. OC: “The charge against Clinton was perjury which presumably fits the description of a high crime and misdemeanour.
    Much of the trial came down to a definition of the phrase “sexual relations”
    I don’t think the impeachment was unreasonable or particularly partisan.”

    ————————————————————-
    My impression was that it started off as a highly partisan exercise – as ridiculous as the current impeachment of Mayorkas – but then struck oil big time.

    I loved the stuff about “sexual relations”: particularly the suggestion that, when Clinton said “I did not have sexual relations with that woman” he was telling the truth because giving him a blow job was a case of her having sexual relations with him, but not vice versa. I remember someone – it might have been Hitchens – stating that, when he first heard that argument, he remembered that Clinton had once been a law professor.

    Personally, I think Clinton would have done better to fess up to what he did immediately, argue that it was immoral but not illegal, and beg for forgiveness. But both major US political parties have long been inclined to circle the wagons in these sorts of situations: not always the best way to proceed IMO. I guess Clinton would argue that he was ultimately successful in brazening the whole thing out. But his reputation was permanently damaged, and I think this had an adverse impact on his wife’s later political career.

  30. Oliver Sutton says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 7:28 pm

    “FUBAR responded to me with a bullshit excuse about Ten’s legal OK of Wilkinson’s speech not being known when he posted, Easily falsified by a simple check of reporting yesterday and prior.”

    I wasn’t aware that the Channel 10 legal had vetted and approved the speech until yesterday when that information was made available through the media reports of the case.

    What evidence do you have before then?

  31. Meher, the amazing thing about Clinton was he actually asked his pollster to poll on whether he should come clean on what happened at the beginning of the scandal. It was only when the polling came out badly that he chose to stonewall and lie about what happened.

  32. FUBAR, I’ll have you know Oliver has watched every second of the Lehrmann defamation trial with particular focus and multiple replays of the Brittany evidence.

  33. Gettysburg1863says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 6:52 pm

    “Will a Crisafulli government proceed in a progressive manner”

    They aren’t the ALP. They do not need to be “progressive” or as I call it “regressive.”

    “Will he knock out the progressive royalty scheme to placate his Mining company supporters?”

    Hope so.

    “Miles need to keep on coming with more progressive policy announcements.”

    Yes – go hard left. Haaaaaard left.

    “Sooner or later ( probably later) , Crisafulli needs to counter with his proposals.”

    Not really. Oppositions do not win elections. Governments lose them.

    “It won’t be enough to criticise Labor- the LNP needs to come up with policies.”

    Wrong.

    “And it won’t do to leave it until Election Launch eve, with an increasing number of voters voting early.”

    It doesn’t matter. They won’t care.

  34. Hi folks. Just looking in on my mobile.
    Mobile phone just back up obviously
    Unusable slow internet back up.
    Power still out.
    Spent the day on the end of a chainsaw cutting downed trees of the tracks just to get into town.
    That was one hell of a storm.
    Hope other Victorians on PB are OK.
    Limited signal on phone so have not been able to even lurk the blog today.
    This is so annoying to type – how do people use these silly little devices.

    So what did I miss. Are you people still arguing endlessly? Need I even ask.

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