Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Labor pokes its nose in front in what has been its weakest polling series through the term, though the primary vote records little change.

The Financial Review has a federal poll from Freshwater Strategy, the pollster’s first for the paper since mid-December, though it conducted one for the News Corp papers in early January. It has Labor leading 51-49, after its previous two polls both recorded a dead heat. There is little change on the primary vote, with Labor on 31% and the Coalition on 38%, respectively steady and down one from both the two previous polls, and the Greens on 14%, up one from the December poll and steady from January.

A preferred prime minister measure has Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 42-38, little changed from 43-39 in December. A question on the tax cut amendments finds 44% supportive, 26% indifferent and 15% opposed, with 32% expecting to be better off, 12% worse off and 43% anticipating no difference. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1049.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,102 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 7 of 43
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  1. ”
    Oakeshott Countrysays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 1:37 pm
    While Santamaria may have preferred Franco’s government to that of the Republicans (he was 21 at the time of the coup), it is far too simplistic, in fact just wrong, to call him a fascist.
    Catholic Social Studies, the National Civic Council and the DLP all had origins in Labour and their supporters, with some justification, saw their role in saving the ALP from Communism. While socially conservative, they were often more economically radical than Labor.
    Mannix is also a complex figure who was a great hero for Labor when he intervened in the conscription debates but a meddling cleric when he intervened in Labor’s post war direction.
    ”

    What I noticed here on PB or elsewhere in public, nobody wants to talk about ALP prior to Curtin premiership. I think it is due to
    1. ALP was one of the pioneers of white Australia policy.
    2. A lot of their policies were close to Communists.
    3. It produced leaders like Billy Hughes.
    4. They only represented blue collar workers, not that there is anything wrong with that. But that alone won’t win elections.

  2. Somewhat Abstract says:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 4:59 pm

    ….

    (I am a 16yo conservative from Bass (not Launceston) who has been on this site for 2 years, owing most of my political understanding to it, who has been too scared to post because my controversial opinions will get bullied by self righteous leftists. This will be fun)’
    ————————————-
    There is nothing worse in the whole of Tasmania than a self-pitying wannabe bullying victim who doesn’t even live in Lonnie. Even if mundo can tear himself away from the aeroplane jelly the sparks are not gunna fly.

  3. Macarthursays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 5:18 pm
    C@tmomma @ Monday, February 19, 2024 at 5:14 pm:

    “How come I can’t see the comment by Somewhat Abstract @ 4.59pm?

    Are they a sock puppet for someone I have blocked?”
    ================================================

    I’m wondering with this C+ system blocking. Does it block the users name only or does it take into account IP address? or the email address in the profile?.
    Interested if you unblock someone. Do their past posts show up too?. Which if that included their sock puppets too. It would be quite a useful function to unmask sock puppets.

  4. Ven
    It might also have something to do with the world changing a bit since 1890 or so. It is a bit like expecting Indian Congress tragics spending their whole lives talking about nothing much else but the partition slaughters.

  6. A true conservative would of course want to protect our environment and current way of life as compared to the radical extremists who are out to make a quick buck through exporting masses of fossil fuels or land clearing our great outdoors that protect the atmosphere, to the detriment of their grandchildren’s grandchildren.

  7. True. Once again we are as one, P1!

    There is no doubt at all that stopping eating meat, dairy, flying and touristing would instantly reduce global emissions by around a quarter.

    But all you can do is distort that fact, deflect from that fact, try to delay that fact and even, gasp, to deny that fact.

    So sad.

  8. Dear Boerwar,
    Thanks for the words of encouragement. You too. Glad my sarcasm was well received by your literalist ears. Pretty sure your reply was sparks flying pretty nicely.

    Also no-one wants to live in Launceston.

  9. Afternoon all. Thanks Nadia88 for the Morgan poll posting. Regardless of the exact numbers the trend is clearly pro-Labor or flat at worst since the Stage 3 tax cut decision.

    I think this will only improve over time. I found the percentage of voters “not sure” if they would benefit from modified Stage 3 jawdroppingly high. Less than 10% of workers will be worse off, with 90% better off.

    Once people start actually getting more money in their pockets after June 30 I expect the change will become more popular. The snowstorm of Murdoch media lies will be less effective then.

    I don’t know if polling in Dunkley has improved for Labor since 24 January. They should have.

  11. Boerwar says:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 5:35 pm

    True. Once again we are as one, P1!

    There is no doubt at all that stopping eating meat, dairy, flying and touristing would instantly reduce global emissions by around a quarter.

    But you doubt, distort, deflect, delay, deny

  13. steve davissays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 12:46 pm
    Dutton on his usual rant about boats. So bloody predictable. Its their partys policy that Labor are following. Scare and fear is all they’ve got.
    _____________________
    He is just playing with him.
    He loves watching him squirm.
    Albo is terrified of boats.

  14. I think it’s fair to say that changing S3 has been a stabiliser for Labor. Not a vote winner, but it was enough to arrest the slide.

    I’d have preferred S3 was scrapped, but the change was an improvement on the original.

  15. Speaking of polling and the desperation it can drive some to, I thought Dutton’s comments about refugees and boat people smacked heavily of it.

    Having 40 people arriving on a single boat is hardly a flood. One small boat! And why did it arrive? Because it is a huge coastline, our navy is too small with too many old ships not ready to go to sea (thanks Pete!) and we finally report all arrivals now, rather than Dutton’s secret on-water matters.

    So Dutton is complaining about a problem his own inaction helped create, while it is not really a problem. Meanwhile the policy has not changed since when he was minister of the relevant portfolio.

    Spud should be annoyed with himself.

  16. A mountain of household savings and soaring rates has sent quarterly interest income to a record $21.1bn, complicating the Reserve Bank’s inflation fight as mostly older, mortgage-free households continue to spend freely. Economists are warning of a “major generational pressure point” as those close to, or in retirement, enjoy a surge in income from their deposits after a fallow decade where low and falling inflation kept interest rates low and favoured borrowers over savers.
    The RBA’s 13 rate hikes since May 2022 – the most aggressive policy tightening since the late 1980s – has smashed indebted homeowners, who have suffered a 40 per cent jump in mortgage interest payments through 2023. Yet the jump in the cash rate from 0.1 per cent to 4.35 per cent has been a boon for mostly older Australians receiving a long-awaited increase in deposit rates.
    The winners of rate hikes are greatly outnumbered by the losers, with the hit to the budgets of millions of households dragging on economic activity. The demographic shift of recent years as baby boomers retired or approach retirement has left an unusually large group who benefit, Judo Bank economic adviser Warren Hogan said. “There’s a stark contrast between the experiences of older generations with younger ones – although you have to be careful not to over-generalise, as some older Australians are still working and are hit with higher inflation and are under the pump,” he said.
    “What it (rapid rise in borrowing costs) seems to be doing is putting a small proportion of the household sector under extreme pressure, a significant proportion under mild stress and belt tightening, and there are others feeling very little stress. They are adding to demand in the economy now, but longer term, it’s also a major generational pressure point.”
    Two in five Australians aged between 55 and 64 years own their home outright, and that number climbs to three-quarters for over-65s, according to 2021 census data. This is in contrast with less than 20 per cent for people aged between 45 and 54 years, and the proportion of debt-free homeowners more than halves to 8 per cent among 35 to 44-year-olds. The latest national accounts show interest earned by households has almost tripled over two years, from $7.7bn in the September quarter of 2021, and is more than twice the previous peak of $9.9bn in 2012.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/soaring-interest-rates-a-boon-for-older-debtfree-aussies/news-story/3d8e84cd19bf486063e15d0ff5ff6be1?amp

  18. ”
    B. S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 3:21 pm
    Nath – Has anyone see Hu Jintao since he was “Sick” at the party conference last year?
    ”

    I think He died

  19. I also saw the news leaks that Marles will announce tomorrow that we will build a new class of 8 “Tier 2” corvette/small frigate sized warships, presumably to replace the Anzacs, built in Perth, plus 6 Hunters in Adelaide.

    Politically, this makes sense given the greater number of marginal electorates in WA than SA. Defence wise the Tier 2 build is entirely sensible.

    The Hunter build is not very sensible in defence terms, but SA would rightly be furious if we lost the frigate construction jobs as well as the sub construction jobs already lost. Marles should have cut the Hunter program as soon as he took office and understood the reality, but it may be too late to do that now without further job losses in Adelaide.

    It has been cute messaging to announce potential cuts of Hunter to 3 or even zero ships. This makes the announcement of six look like a “win” when it is really a cut from 9 to 6 ships, with no penalty on BAE for appalling delivery performance. So we will be stuck with expensive, underarmed ships in future.

  20. ”What I noticed here on PB or elsewhere in public, nobody wants to talk about ALP prior to Curtin premiership. I think it is due to
    1. ALP was one of the pioneers of white Australia policy.
    2. A lot of their policies were close to Communists.
    3. It produced leaders like Billy Hughes.
    4. They only represented blue collar workers, not that there is anything wrong with that. But that alone won’t win elections”

    This blog mostly discusses current and recent Australian politics, although it occasionally branches out in weather, sport, Taylor Swift, etc… Australian history is sometimes discussed but it isn’t a major focus. We don’t discuss Scullin, Hughes, Stanley Melbourne Bruce, or Lyons, not because we are somehow ashamed or uncomfortable with it, but because it is mostly not that relevant to what’s happening now.

    Regarding your points.
    1. True. The policy had broad acceptance across the political spectrum until at least the 1950s.
    2. Labor was founded as a democratic socialist party.
    3. True. Not the last prominent Labor figure to cross over to the Dark Side.
    4. Representing blue collar workers was an excellent idea. No one else was so they needed their own party. Things have changed and evolved and are still evolving.

  21. Boerwar @ #311 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 5:37 pm

    There is no doubt at all that stopping eating meat, dairy, flying and touristing would instantly reduce global emissions by around a quarter.

    I think everyone here probably now gets the point that you are a denier, Bore.

    I think everyone here probably also knows that you will simply repeat the same post forever.

    So out of respect for other posters – something you might want to reflect on yourself some time – I will restrict my pointing out your denial tactics to once per day (at most) and simply ignore the rest.

  22. I think this will only improve over time. I found the percentage of voters “not sure” if they would benefit from modified Stage 3 jawdroppingly high. Less than 10% of workers are worse off, with 90% better off.

    May I point the finger at an utterly hopeless media – either ideologically compromised or just plain useless or too focussed on the sunshine coming out of their wrong place?

    It isnt like the media havent had opportunity. The end of the lamingtons were one.

    Regardless, it was a sleeper issue. Many were waking up to lighter wallets and tighter budgets and a growing number were becoming aware this big tax cut was coming for everyone but them. I’d say this was something the media would have smashed the ALP (next year) if they didnt fix it and went pretty much ‘blah’ on them correcting it this year. And almost nobody went ‘how the f could this have been the policy in the first place?’.

  23. Entropy, you’ll have to ask a r, it’s his plug in. But empirically, C+ merely hides posts from people that you’ve “blocked”, based on the name they used. You can unblock and re-block to reveal and hide again. The main benefits (for me) are:
    * It fetches new comments without hitting refresh.
    * It highlights NEW comments.
    * It reorders comments with most recent at the top.
    * It removes pages, so you can scan/search one long (and getting longer) list of comments.

    Preferences vary.

  26. There is no doubt at all that stopping eating meat, dairy, flying and touristing would instantly reduce global emissions by around a quarter.

  27. Dutton might as well go to where the people smuggler boats are launched in Indonesia and tell them that nobody will try to intercept them. That’s what he is doing with his daily rants for the media at the moment. Now falsely claiming (Ch 10 news) that patrols are virtually non-existent under Labor.

    What a great asset he would be to an enemy if Australia was facing an invasion in wartime.

  28. Ok, I did look it up. Hu Jintao was sighted at the funeral of Jiang Zemin after the incident where they ushered him out of the hall.

  29. Boerwarsays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 4:54 pm
    ====================================
    Boer – “The Greens”. Gosh where do I begin. I’ve never been a fan of the Greens, and that silly carry on last September about housing and demanding Albo do something about rents should’ve been called out by Labor.

    After doing a bit of research over summer I discovered there was a referendum on “Rents & prices” way back in 1948. The purpose of the referendum was to transfer some powers to the Feds over rents, amongst other things. As it was defeated by a significant margin, the regulation of the rental market remained with the states.

    I’m assuming that Max Chandler -Mather (the Greens Federal MP) wanted the Federal Parliament to do “something”, knowing they have no power in that area. His argument should’ve been directed to the State Premiers. Labor should’ve rebutted Max C-M more forcefully and shoved the 1948 referendum result into his in-tray.

    You mention that the Greens block, but they’re also quite silly.

  30. Late Risersays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 5:54 pm
    Entropy, you’ll have to ask a r, it’s his plug in. But empirically, C+ merely hides posts from people that you’ve “blocked”, based on the name they used. You can unblock and re-block to reveal and hide again. The main benefits (for me) are:
    * It fetches new comments without hitting refresh.
    * It highlights NEW comments.
    * It reorders comments with most recent at the top.
    * It removes pages, so you can scan/search one long (and getting longer) list of comments.

    Preferences vary.
    =====================================================

    Thanks, so if it just blocks based on the name they used. Then the reason C@t can’t see post is not due to a user she blocked using a different name. As that post should be visible to her. As that new name would not be blocked.

    “* It removes pages, so you can scan/search one long (and getting longer) list of comments.”

    So you can put in a posters name and it will go back and find their posts?. That would be useful function. Even just to go back to old ones of your own posts. When the topic, as it often does, returns to the same issue again.

  31. Personally I don’t talk much about early Australian political history, including that of the Labor Party. That does not mean I am ashamed of it.

    Australia elected the first Labor (workers) party government in the world with Chris Watson PM in 1904. Several early Labor leaders had been jailed by strike breaking state governments in the 1890s.

    Early attitudes towards race including white-Australia were no better or worse than the thinking of the times. I don’t agree with them now of course.

    But by the standards of the day early Labor governments were quite progressive. From the outset they sought to improve living standards for working class people. I’m not feeling the guilt there.

    “Lasting reforms of this early period of Labor leadership include maternity allowance, the foundation of a Commonwealth Bank, workers’ compensation for Commonwealth workers, establishment of the principle of the minimum wage, and expansion of the age pension.”
    https://www.alp.org.au/our-history/labor-party-history/

    And see what Watson and colleagues were up against as a new minority government.
    https://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/senate/pubs/pops/pop44/mcmullin.pdf

  34. BK knows how to get C+ too.

    Entropy, as far as I know you can’t access previous comments by people here by inputting their name into a search box.

  36. Socrates @ #313 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 5:41 pm

    Speaking of polling and the desperation it can drive some to, I thought Dutton’s comments about refugees and boat people smacked heavily of it.

    Having 40 people arriving on a single boat is hardly a flood. One small boat! And why did it arrive? Because it is a huge coastline, our navy is too small with too many old ships not ready to go to sea (thanks Pete!) and we finally report all arrivals now, rather than Dutton’s secret on-water matters.

    So Dutton is complaining about a problem his own inaction helped create, while it is not really a problem. Meanwhile the policy has not changed since when he was minister of the relevant portfolio.

    Spud should be annoyed with himself.

    It’s the ‘eternal present’ that Perter Dutton couches all his commentary in. Like, the borders fell apart the day before the boat arrived on the Albanese government’s watch. It had nothing to do with Peter Dutton’s time as Defence Minister (did he make any substantive decisions as Minister?), nor his time as Home Affairs Minister (did he advance sufficient provision of boats and manpower to patrol the coast?).

    It frustrates me incredibly that johnny-on-the-spot journalists can never find their voice to point this out to him and hold his feet to the fire to answer those questions!

  37. The Australian 19/02
    Former Guardian Australia political editor Katharine Murphy appears to have upset senior Labor members including Penny Wong at its latest tactics meeting. She’s unlikely to be invited back.
    _____________________
    Wong again. She just can’t help herself.

  40. Entropy

    So you can put in a posters name and it will go back and find their posts?. That would be useful function. Even just to go back to old ones of your own posts. When the topic, as it often does, returns to the same issue again.

    Not quite. What C+ allows you to do is “load” a block of up to 100 earlier comments at a time. For instance, you start by loading the first (or most recent) 100, then another 100, and so on, until you have all the comments from a single thread loaded into your browser. Once you’ve done that you can search for posters using your browser’s search function.

    Another feature is block quotes. The left square bracket inserts a blockquote and the right square bracket the /blockquote. C+ is worth it for that alone.

  41. Taylormade @ #336 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 6:34 pm

    The Australian 19/02
    Former Guardian Australia political editor Katharine Murphy appears to have upset senior Labor members including Penny Wong at its latest tactics meeting. She’s unlikely to be invited back.
    _____________________
    Wong again. She just can’t help herself.

    Murphy is not a tame pet former journalist like David Gazzard, steeped in Black Ops, is for the Liberals, that’s for sure.

  42. Another feature is block quotes. The left square bracket inserts a blockquote and the right square bracket the /blockquote. C+ is worth it for that alone.

    You bet your bippy!

  43. Then the reason C@t can’t see post is not due to a user she blocked using a different name.

    I wasn’t able to see those posts either, until I forced my browser to refresh, which temporarily bypasses C+. It’s rare, but sometimes I think C+ glitches.

    If you want to try C+ this might link to the plug in.
    https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi?pli=1
    Or search for “PB Comments Plugin”.

  44. Well there goes the Cost of Living Crisis!
    Chris Kohler on 9 News just revealed that the majority of motorists are filling up with Premium petrol.

  45. Late Riser @ #343 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 6:53 pm

    Then the reason C@t can’t see post is not due to a user she blocked using a different name.

    I wasn’t able to see those posts either, until I forced my browser to refresh, which temporarily bypasses C+. It’s rare, but sometimes I think C+ glitches.

    If you want to try C+ this might link to the plug in.
    https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi?pli=1
    Or search for “PB Comments Plugin”.

    Thanks LR. 16 yo? Nah. Wonder who it is was then?

  46. I use Premium petrol in our vehicles because that is what is recommended by the manufacturers and I don’t want to void the warranties.

  48. Haven’t fueled up at a servo since mid 2022.

    I zip on past in my solar powered, home charged, electric car.

    Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

    Seriously, this cost of living thing! My lovely tradie neighbour was whinging to me about how much it cost to fill his RAM monster truck. I pointed out my roof top solar panels and told him I pay nothing for fuel. The solar panels paid for themselves a decade ago.

    White Australia policy: one of our great national shames. We are a racist country through and through. Only last October we confirmed it for all the world to see.

    Next!

  49. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 6:57 pm
    Contemporary ICU engines are designed to run premium, in fact our lower than EU standards prevents importing the most fuel efficient motors & gearboxes.. curtesy of the LNP

    Added…
    Australia’s average emissions-intensity for passenger vehicles is 45 per cent higher than Europe’s, largely because of the dirty fuel we use and the fact that we can’t import the most economical, modern engines as our petrol and diesel is not clean enough for them to run on.

    Australia is one of only six countries in the OECD not to have any vehicle-emissions standards. Our fuel quality is also among the worst in the group, with a maximum of 150 parts per million (ppm) of sulphur for 91 octane regular unleaded, and up to 50 ppm for our 95 and 98 premium unleaded. Both of those standards were banned in Europe 10 years ago.

  50. Late Risersays:
    Monday, February 19, 2024 at 6:45 pm
    Entropy

    So you can put in a posters name and it will go back and find their posts?. That would be useful function. Even just to go back to old ones of your own posts. When the topic, as it often does, returns to the same issue again.

    Not quite. What C+ allows you to do is “load” a block of up to 100 earlier comments at a time. For instance, you start by loading the first (or most recent) 100, then another 100, and so on, until you have all the comments from a single thread loaded into your browser. Once you’ve done that you can search for posters using your browser’s search function.
    =======================================================

    Thanks again. misunderstood about the search thread statement. I think i’m clear now. I certainly know when once i went back to try and find a past link i posted. Which i couldn’t find again on the internet. It was a real pain going in and out of threads looking. Certainly if you knew the post you were looking was say sometime in January. Then could join all January threads into one. It would be easier to search for.

    At the moment not planning to use the system but it is interesting to hear about the different functions it enables. Thanks again.

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