The Financial Review has a federal poll from Freshwater Strategy, the pollster’s first for the paper since mid-December, though it conducted one for the News Corp papers in early January. It has Labor leading 51-49, after its previous two polls both recorded a dead heat. There is little change on the primary vote, with Labor on 31% and the Coalition on 38%, respectively steady and down one from both the two previous polls, and the Greens on 14%, up one from the December poll and steady from January.
A preferred prime minister measure has Anthony Albanese leading Peter Dutton 42-38, little changed from 43-39 in December. A question on the tax cut amendments finds 44% supportive, 26% indifferent and 15% opposed, with 32% expecting to be better off, 12% worse off and 43% anticipating no difference. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1049.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 10:25 pm
The Australian can reveal the government is working on a budget boost to upgrade the OSB fleet after ABF Commissioner Michael Outram outlined critical deficiencies including pilot shortages, “blowouts” in deep-level maintenance time frames and increasing reliance on Defence assets.
_____________________
I wish this prick would make up his mind.
===============================================
Whose the prick Outram? or the guy who appointed him?.
https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/peterdutton/Pages/Appointment-of-Australian-Border-Force-Commissioner.aspx
Supermarket profit margin. Need to have a good look at how the “cost” is calculated
Few eye openers on 4 corners. Workers in 35 degree temperatues. No sign of the senior management sweating in those temperatures.
Launceston is very good, I loved going up the road to Ben Lomond via the Jacobs Ladder. Probably the best piece of road in the country…
Entropy says:
Personally if i was going to run a business and worked out i would get around 5% profit margin doing it. I would put the money in shares and bonds instead. As i certainly could do better than 5% just doing nothing but leaving it there.
___________
Globally, those are fat and juicy margins for the supermarket industry.
And they are somewhat reflected in their dividend yield. I believe Coles is at 5%. That’s fully franked, so the real return would be somewhere around 7%. Not too shabby.
Watched Q&A for the first time in a while. Good episode. Patricia Karvelas is a big improvement on Tony Jones.
Spence:
Senior management are busy writing out typo-ridden notes to go up in the break room and occasionally waddling down to the bakery department to rearrange the bread.
Coles and Woolworths have return on company capital of 9- 10% per year.
And that would be after padding out the capital base with some accounting help.
And well done Paul Barry with some basic facts on media bias. 7 Media and Murdoch leading the way but with 9 also getting an honourable mention.
Mavis:
I admit I wasn’t exactly what you’d call a normal teenager, but at 16, I was obsessed with sex and politics. That was the time of my political awakening. I blame John Howard and the Iraq War. (For the politics obsession, that is. Definitely not the sex one.)
‘Air warfare destroyers set to replace three Adelaide Hunter Class frigates axed in surface fleet review
The defence minister will confirm plans to build Hunter class frigates in Adelaide will be cut back, but a new project will be unveiled to take their place.
Three frigates will be axed from Adelaide’s Hunter warship build because of a $20bn blowout and replaced by a next-generation air warfare destroyer project, Defence Minister Richard Marles will reveal.’
Source: adelaidenow.com.au
nathsays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 10:42 pm
Entropy says:
Personally if i was going to run a business and worked out i would get around 5% profit margin doing it. I would put the money in shares and bonds instead. As i certainly could do better than 5% just doing nothing but leaving it there.
___________
Globally, those are fat and juicy margins for the supermarket industry.
And they are somewhat reflected in their dividend yield. I believe Coles is at 5%. That’s fully franked, so the real return would be somewhere around 7%. Not too shabby.
================================================
Not according to my online broker site. It has Coles at 4.1% (franked 5.9%) and Woolies at 3.0% (franked 4.3%). Compared to say iron ore miners: FMG 8.7% (Fr 12.4%), FEX 8.0% (Fr 11.4%) or RIO 5.1% (Fr 7.3%).
At 16 I was obsessed with olive skinned girls. Then came the red head phase….and then many more.
Not according to my online broker site. It has Coles at 4.1% (franked 5.9%)
______
Ok I was a bit under with my Coles returns. But 6% is not too bad. Very stable business. Not that I would invest in supermarkets.
nathsays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 11:02 pm
Not according to my online broker site. It has Coles at 4.1% (franked 5.9%)
______
Ok I was a bit under with my Coles returns. But 6% is not too bad. Very stable business. Not that I would invest in supermarkets.
================================================
Its not bad but its not a massive margin either. My main point was if people think they fleecing them by massive margins and that this gets somehow corrected their grocery shop will get much cheaper. Will be sadly disappointed. Possibly all these reviews might trim 2% off the average grocery shop at most. That’s about the most they can expect. So if you grocery trolley is around $300 it might go down to $294 instead.
Didn’t we just build a next generation air warfare destroyer?
And how is an air warfare destroyer going to help defend convoys against Chinese submarines?
bobsays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 11:19 pm
Didn’t we just build a next generation air warfare destroyer?
And how is an air warfare destroyer going to help defend convoys against Chinese submarines?
======================================================
What convoys would they be?. Not those taking iron ore to China i would guess.
Note: It would certainly be a radical way for China to cancel an export order.
“I know it may be a surprise, but there are conservatives out there who are blue collar and don’t go to a private school and actually aren’t completely unionised and doled up.
Did they become conservative on opposite day? If your family isn’t someone from a private school then you’ll never be accepted as a conservative, no matter how much you try to sell out the working class roots you appear to claim to be from.
“Hypocritical point about women, minorities etc, your attitude to concervstives is obviously quite exclusive”
Conservatives deserve to be excluded for their racism, pro-fascist tendencies, hostility toward history & science and desire to make the world a worse place for anyone who isn’t a billionaire or connected to the billionaire born to rule class. If that’s an issue, just stop being conservative.
Thanks DM. So, Mr Bowe does a new regression for each new poll, looking only back in time, and records the new best estimate alongside the new poll, but he does not update historical estimates. OK. I can go with that.
Bob knows as little about Naval warfare as he does about conservatives.
Late Risersays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 11:34 pm
Thanks DM. So, Mr Bowe does a new regression for each new poll, looking only back in time, and records the new best estimate alongside the new poll, but he does not update historical estimates. OK. I can go with that.
==================================================
If you go back to first page of the blog in 2004. You still see the current poll line on bludger track. So if you want see if the line changes on bludger track in the past. When new current data arrives. You would need to take a screen shot of the track and compare to the line in the future. To see if say the lines position through January changes with new February data is added?. So does a whole new regression line get calculated each time?.
I think that is correct LR, but happy to be corrected by the blog owner.
The Hunter frigate program is reportedly another $20 billion over budget. Now at $65 billion ($7 billion each) the Hunters are more over budget ant time than the French subs were at cancellation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-19/naval-fleet-review-funding-hole-hunter-frigates/103486288
There are 1800 working on Hunter construction now, which is scheduled to rise to 5000 jobs at peak. That works out at $433,000 per job per year for 30 years. Really?
I’m sure it will be great when they finish it.
“The Jacobs Ladder road to the top of Ben Lomond is said to be one of the scariest drives in Australia. It is not recommended to climb this road in winter without a local guide, a 4 wheel drive, and snow chains. If your vehicle has 4WD, it is still recommended to carry snow chains in case.”
Bob
The Hobart class air warfare destroyers carry an ASW helicopter as well as a towed array sonar to detect subs. They are actually our best armed ships vs submarines. It would be more accurate to call them General Purpose Destroyers than only Air Warfare Destroyers.
This is why Andrew Earlwood and myself have many times said we should cancel the Hunter project and switch back to building more Hobart class.
How Jacobs Ladder, one of Tasmania’s scariest — and most photographed — roads, was built
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-12/how-jacobs-ladder-tasmania-scariest-road-was-built/101323120
Socratessays:
Monday, February 19, 2024 at 11:55 pm
Bob
The Hobart class air warfare destroyers carry an ASW helicopter as well as a towed array sonar to detect subs. They are actually our best armed ships vs submarines. It would be more accurate to call them General Purpose Destroyers than only Air Warfare Destroyers.
This is why Andrew Earlwood and myself have many times said we should cancel the Hunter project and switch back to building more Hobart class.
=========================================================
If in the future we operate more naval drones too. Which seems to be the way things are going. Would this be the best naval platform for them to be operated off too?.
Add on: I guess aerial drones too.
Entropy
You could operate naval drones off a Hunter or Hobart. Both have a flight deck and hangar to operate them from and store them.
Hunters are bigger and have a “mission bay” that could carry more.
I have no idea what was in the 4 Corners supermarket program and note the comments above about their profitability.
What I would like to see is some data about profitability of various product lines, basic food stuff and household goods in particular. I would be surprised to find that most of the loot they collect comes from items we just can’t do without.
I have posted this before, I am aware of a farmer who shot sheep because the market price was less than the freight to get them there. The cost of lamb in the shops certainly doesn’t reflect that.
Socratessays:
Tuesday, February 20, 2024 at 12:06 am
Entropy
You could operate naval drones off a Hunter or Hobart. Both have a flight deck and hangar to operate them from and store them.
Hunters are bigger and have a “mission bay” that could carry more.
===================================================
Thanks, is Australia considering making their own naval drones?. I saw the aerial drone “The Loyal Wingman” will be built here in a joint project with Boeing.
Dr Doolittle @ #390 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 9:39 pm
Thanks for all that. Do finish the Gergiev exposure right through. They are audacious all but to a fault, and the humour of (spoiler alert) the knowing camera glance when she gets his autograph (to compare with real estate records), face to face with the tricked master trickster (at Scala after he conducted Pique Dame, an absolute masterpiece I think, and intensely Russian), is priceless.
I have noted the book and saved your link for the morning.
nadia88: “I was expecting a jump of 3-4% on primary, and I base that only on convo’s with neighbours and family (ie: revised tax cuts have been received well).”
The ‘hip pocket nerve’ is highly overrated as an influence on voting intentions.
Unbelievable!
‘ATO eyeing ramp-up of controversial robotax scheme in bid to recoup $15bn in ‘on-hold’ debts’
‘Internal ATO documents released to Guardian Australia show the program is designed to ramp up this year to eventually capture up to 1.8m entities, largely consisting of individuals.’
‘The documents … show the ATO had decided against seeking a reprieve for older Australians and those on lower incomes as part of the plan to recoup historical debts.’
‘The ATO plans to remove the last-remaining exemption, related to the age of the debt, before the end of this financial year …’
‘The ATO’s approach to remove the exemptions had been discussed with Treasury officials as far back as mid 2022 … There have also been periodic updates provided by the ATO to the office of assistant treasurer, Stephen Jones.’
‘The internal documents show the ATO decided against asking the finance minister to seek a waiver for some people, such as lower-income earners and older Australians.’
Something is happening here
But you don’t know what it is
Do you, Mr. Jones?
* * *
‘The ATO has consistently said it had no option under the law to cancel the debts …’
Gosh, if only there was some way that the law could be changed …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/20/ato-eyeing-ramp-up-of-controversial-robotax-scheme-in-bid-to-recoup-15bn-in-on-hold-debts
John Oliver offers to pay Clarence Thomas $1m a year if he resigns from supreme court
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/19/john-oliver-clarence-thomas-resign-1-million-offer
Entropy
“ Thanks, is Australia considering making their own naval drones?. I saw the aerial drone “The Loyal Wingman” will be built here in a joint project with Boeing.”
Yes this is already occurring. Several Australian companies are quite good at making drones here, some are selling drones to other markets. At least one is supplying Ukraine.
The navy has already contracted to acquire both surface (USV) and underwater (UUV) drones. Anduril are making quite sophisticated underwater autonomous (self directed to a program) drones that can deploy from subs or ships.
Entropy @ #414 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 11:12 pm
The same can be said about petrol prices. That’s why I never bother going to one of the petrol stations that take vouchers, it hardly makes a difference, maybe a dollar or two, to the total amount you pay to fill up.
I wouldn’t mind more competition in the supermarket sector though. Just allow everyone in like we do with cars. I’d like to see Tesco or Sainsburys, for example.
I told you that one of the reasons those people tried to get to Australia by boat was in an attempt to get around the new restrictions on ‘students’ coming into the country to go to a private college…then disappear into the community to work under the radar:
Australian private colleges are blacklisting students from entire countries as part of an unprecedented reaction to the government’s visa crackdown.
At least two providers have moved to pause applications from India, Pakistan, Nigeria and other countries where students are at a high risk of visa rejection.
…
Student visa rejections have reached a record high after the federal government last year revealed its new migration strategy, which imposed stronger English-language tests on students and required them to prove they were genuine students.
…
Kaplan Business College also contacted agents, saying it had paused all applications from Pakistan and Nigeria.
Universities and colleges are given a risk rating – one being the lowest and three the highest – based on their likelihood of recruiting students for work, rather than study.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/colleges-blacklist-students-from-entire-countries-20240219-p5f5z5.html
I wondered why Pakistanis were on the boat and I think this is the reason why.
Entropy @ #401 Monday, February 19th, 2024 – 10:29 pm
Yep, the eternal, contextless present of Taylormade’s Liberal mind. 😐
I had no idea the Greens were using the census data to claim there are 1 million empty homes in the country. How ridiculous! Anyone having a holiday on census night would record themselves as absent from their usual place of residence. Surely the Greens know that!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-max-we-don-t-really-have-a-million-vacant-houses-20240219-p5f5yj.html
Nadia88 @ 6.07pm
There was also a referendum, in 1974, which proposed to give the Commonwealth Government control over prices and incomes.
It was soundly defeated.
Unfortunately, Max the Hyphen is big on proposals and solutions but very small on details.
Much of what he, and many of his Green mates propose – such as Rent Freezes etc are unconstitutional and if implemented would be subject to a High Court challenge. A challenge which the Commonwealth would lose.
[Francis Farrell, Kyiv Independent reporter:] “I don’t think it was a coincidence that most of the leaders and ministers I managed to speak to [at the Munich Security Conference] were from the smaller, but more vocal European countries: Sweden, the Netherlands, Finland, and Lithuania. These countries, in their own way, have all gone above and beyond the call of duty to advocate for more military aid. Some, like the Netherlands with F-16s, have taken the lead with the provision of key weapons systems, breaking delusional taboos about escalation.
Looking these leaders eye-to-eye (whilst remembering George W. Bush’s lesson not to rely too much on that), I could feel that they cared, really. But that didn’t stop some of them falling into the same traps: namely, avoiding the problems of the present by basking in the victories of the past; of a very different war.
“Of all the territory the Russians gained since Feb. 24 2022, a large part of that, you have recaptured,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told me in our short conversation inside the hotel. I certainly didn’t play any personal part in the Kharkiv and Kherson oblast counteroffensives back then, but I have spoken to soldiers who were there and are still fighting, now in the trenches outside Bakhmut. For them, those memories are from a different world entirely.
I have written before that one of the most important things in this war, for participants, observers, or leaders, is staying in touch with reality, however uncomfortable that is. Here, the reality is a stark one: where it seemed over summer that the counteroffensive could still make a big breakthrough, it is Ukraine’s Armed Forces that are now under greater strain than at any time in the full-scale war. Over autumn and winter, with Russia’s fierce retaking of the initiative, the military aid blocked in Congress, and Ukraine struggling to mobilize and supply the new soldiers it needs, the war has seen a major paradigm shift. With the country’s fate hinging directly on the military’s capacity to fight, we now face a situation where Ukraine is not — for now, at least — fighting for victory, but for survival.”
https://kyivindependent.com/munich-diaries-fear-and-uncertainty-at-the-lose-lose-conference/
Max Chandler-Mather is, like the Prime Minister says, still living in the world of student politics, where unicorn pie-in-the-sky solutions are theoretically possible, just not practically realistic solutions to the problems The Greens are increasingly campaigning on in order to stay relevant and capture new, young voters.
Macarthur,
Peter Hartcher this morning is writing about Ukraine:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/one-murder-too-many-mr-putin-it-could-be-ukraine-s-lifeline-20240219-p5f612.html
C@t
I’m hoping that this murder is one too many.
Navalny being killed does not indicate strength by Putin.
Despite the narrative, Putin and Russia are failing.
C@t:
Max Chandler-Mather is a headline in search of his story.
Sad news:
Confessions @ #444 Tuesday, February 20th, 2024 – 7:13 am
Yeah. I keep thinking that he went from Young Labor to The Greens because he was unable to make the rapid advancement that he has with The Greens.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Australian Border Force commissioner Michael Outram has dismissed fears of a cut to the agency’s funding after the Coalition launched an incendiary attack on Labor for slashing its funds and leaving the nation exposed to asylum seeker boats that escape detection. David Crowe reports that the border control chief insisted that federal funding had reached its highest level since the agency was established in 2015 and had grown by hundreds of millions of dollars last year, in a direct intervention in the political dispute over asylum seeker arrivals.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-albanese-clash-on-cost-of-asylum-boat-patrols-20240219-p5f5y0.html
Anthony Albanese has accused Peter Dutton of acting as a cheer squad for people smugglers by over-egging the seriousness of the arrival on the Australian mainland last week of a boat carrying 39 men, writes Phil Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-aiding-people-smugglers-with-overblown-claims-pm-20240219-p5f5xj
Paul Karp fact checks Dutton’s claims and concludes that Operation Sovereign Borders remains in place and is not being implemented substantially differently by the Albanese government.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/20/factcheck-peter-dutton-labor-weakened-australia-asylum-seeker-policy-border-enforcement-budgets-wa-boat
Projection tells you just as much about the politician launching an attack as it does about the target – Peter Dutton on border security is a case in point, writes Paul Bongiorno who reckons Dutton’s border security offensive is taking on water.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2024/02/20/paul-bongiorno-peter-dutton-border-security
The Australian Taxation Office is preparing to expand a controversial scheme that resurrects decades-old debts in its pursuit of more than $15bn, despite rising numbers of complaints, transparency concerns and at least one systems error resulting in miscalculations. Internal ATO documents released to Guardian Australia show the program is designed to ramp up this year to eventually capture up to 1.8m entities, largely consisting of individuals.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/20/ato-eyeing-ramp-up-of-controversial-robotax-scheme-in-bid-to-recoup-15bn-in-on-hold-debts
In advance of announcements from Richard Marles today, Matthew Knott tells us that a dramatic navy overhaul will double the nation’s number of warships and boost the firepower of the surface fleet, but risks angering Germany if the federal government guts a troubled offshore patrol vessel program to free up money for missile-laden ships.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/first-france-now-germany-government-risks-another-slap-in-the-face-20240219-p5f5y1.html
News Corp has shifted its ever-present Labor smear campaign towards the cost-of-living crisis, attributing any and all fault possible to the Prime Minister and Labor, writes Victoria Fielding.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/murdoch-media-in-overdrive-creating-cost-of-living-problem-for-albanese,18343
Australia is turning into a nation of mean, bad, tax-deducting landlords, and if this month’s publication of MPs’ pecuniary interests is any guide, nothing will ever be done about it, writes Crispin Hull who declares that it’s time to broaden the tax horizon and make Australia’s richest cough up.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8526130/australias-growing-housing-crisis-can-be-helped-by-taxing-rich/?cs=14258
Victorians are forking out more on stamp duty than any other state in the nation, but new modelling shows how the tax is now costing the state almost $5 billion a year in lost economic activity, reports Josh Gordon.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-fastest-way-to-add-5-billion-to-victoria-s-economy-axe-stamp-duty-20240213-p5f4gz.html
Parliament vowed to sober up two years ago. It’s time everyone got the memo, says James Massola who suggests that the Nationals are the odd party out.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/parliament-vowed-to-sober-up-two-years-ago-it-s-time-everyone-got-the-memo-20240219-p5f647.html
Greens housing spokesman Max Chandler-Mather recently said the million unoccupied properties around the country could help address the housing crisis, but unfortunately, it’s not that simple, explains Rachel Clun who pulls apert his pronouncement.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-max-we-don-t-really-have-a-million-vacant-houses-20240219-p5f5yj.html
The residential care sector needs almost 6000 more nurses to meet tough new rules this year – a shortfall that has barely reduced over the past three months – casting doubt on whether many services will be able to continue operating. Jess Malcolm reports that, according to new figures from the Department of Health and Aged Care, residential aged care is facing a gap of 5918 nurses by 2024-25, an improvement of only 44 from government forecasts during the December quarter.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/aged-care-failing-to-close-registered-nurse-gap/news-story/bfb9c04a5b8eae84b2ed681a03f683df?amp=
Here is a detailed breakdown of the 4 Corners report on the supermarket duopoly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-20/woolworths-coles-supermarket-tactics-grocery-four-corners/103405054
Whichever way you spin it, Monday’s announcement of a second inquiry into the Star’s Pyrmont entertainment venue is a real threat to its future, opines Michael McGowan.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/if-star-casino-fails-will-there-be-a-parachute-20240219-p5f60l.html
“Why do casinos get so many get out of jail free cards?”, wonders Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/why-should-taxpayers-foot-the-bill-for-another-casino-inquiry-20240219-p5f630.html
Now Bruce Lehrmann has lodged a complaint of professional misconduct with the NSW legal watchdog against the Ten Network’s most senior lawyer, alleging her advice to Lisa Wilkinson contributed to the long delay in his criminal trial.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/lehrmann-files-complaint-against-ten-lawyer-over-lisa-advice/news-story/ce1ea55d2f0e64dabc0f8021761a9002?amp=
Why did well over half the 200-plus million Indonesian registered electors choose disgraced general Prabowo Subianto as their next President? Duncan Graham has some answers.
https://johnmenadue.com/keeping-it-in-the-family/
The Russian president’s disposal of Alexei Navalny might spur US Republicans to defy Donald Trump and support Ukraine’s war effort. If not, we should prepare for a catastrophe, opines Peter Hartcher.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/one-murder-too-many-mr-putin-it-could-be-ukraine-s-lifeline-20240219-p5f612.html
Australian astronomers have discovered the most luminous object in the universe – a ravenous, chaotic, fast-growing black hole, explains Angus Dalton. There’s some heavy shit going on out there!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-brightest-object-in-the-universe-is-a-sun-eating-colossus-20240219-p5f625.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Mark David
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
From the US
Thanks BK.
Astronomers have found the fastest-growing black hole ever recorded – a colossus that absorbs the equivalent of one Sun every day. The black hole’s hungry maw makes it the most luminous known object in the universe. A team of astronomers at the Australian National University (ANU) first spotted an extremely bright quasar with a telescope at Siding Spring Observatory. “Quasars are bright objects powered by black holes accreting,” Christian Wolf, an associate professor in astronomy at ANU, tells Cosmos.Light from the quasar has taken more than 12 billion years to get to Earth, but Wolf says that because of the expansion of the universe, the black hole is now more than 20 billion light-years away. The black hole is about 17 billion times the mass of our Sun. “We know of black holes which we estimate to be more massive, in the range from 20-30 [billion Suns],” says Wolf.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/space/astrophysics/fastest-growing-black-hole/
UK Home Affairs Minister Cleverly: Today in Parliament we have laid an order to ban overseas care workers from bringing dependants. This is just one part of our plan to deliver the biggest-ever cut in migration.