The fortnightly Essential Research poll finds Labor recovering the lead on its 2PP+ measure after losing it for the first time in the previous poll, albeit just barely. The primary votes, which include a 5% undecided component (up one), have Labor up two to 32%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down two to 11% and One Nation up one to 8%, while Labor’s 48-47 lead on 2PP+ (likewise with 5% undecided) reverses the result from last time.
Further questions focus on foreign policy, with a three-choice question on “Australia’s role in global affairs” finding 20% opting for “primarily an ally of the US”, 38% for “an independent middle power with influence in the Asia-Pacific region” and 25% for “Australia should do its best not to engage in world affairs”. On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 18% felt Israel justified in its present course with a further 20% saying it should agree to a temporary ceasefire, while 37% felt it should permanently withdraw. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1216.
After a Labor blowout in the last poll, the weekly Roy Morgan has its two-party lead in from 53.5-46.5 to 51.5-48.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down two), Coalition 38% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13% (down half) and One Nation 4% (up half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1714.
The date of the by-election for Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook has been set at April 13, with nominations to be declared on March 22. Labor is yet to formally determine if it will field a candidate, but has offered public indications that it is unlikely to.
Albo’s doing all right. The fact that Stalin-loving America-hating socialists don’t like him I find reassuring.
Go give Corbyn a BJ you friggin commies.
Written by Naomi Klein in the Guardian article linked by Boerwar.
‘I remembered that exactly two weeks had passed since Aaron Bushnell, a 25-year-old member of the US air force, self-immolated outside the Israeli embassy in Washington.
I don’t want anyone else to deploy that horrifying protest tactic; there has already been far too much death. But we should spend some time sitting with the statement that Bushnell left, words I have come to view as a haunting, contemporary coda to Glazer’s film:
“Many of us like to ask ourselves, ‘What would I do if I was alive during slavery? Or the Jim Crow south? Or apartheid? What would I do if my country was committing genocide?’ The answer is, you’re doing it. Right now.”
Tonifa = poor man’s Entropy.
Thanks Rainman!
Just lurking at the moment when I get a chance.
Lot’s happening work and family wise, nothing bad though, just busy.
Cheers!
lol Lars- at least it appears the both of us have acknowledged Entropy’s hard yards burning the midnight oil here at PB and also his fairly neutral ways. I decided to make peace with him yesterday because I feel there is no point in continuing to attack him anymore. He just wants to learn and participate so I won’t judge him. Have you kept his application still alive for your pa/ chauffeur/pillbox attendee?
Dr Doolittle 9:29pm
Yes I did see the Allan Behm article today, thanks. I increasingly think AUKUS is just a stalling move for Labor now. It is an excuse to not actually spend anything on building subs for ten years.
That may not have been the original reason, but with current budget pressures, I think it is what AUKUS has become. The reality may be distinctly annoying in a few years time for the poor souls now spending years studying relevant nuclear skills.
I also think that you and I may be analysing AUKUS and defence decisions more than the decision makers do. It could come down to nothing more than jingoism and historic prejudices. Despite the talk about following USA in policy, there is an extraordinary degree of favouritism of UK shipbuilders in purchase decisions. It makes no sense, because UK has no power to intervene in this region. But it is comfortable for the senior defence figures who served in RN ships in their early years.
Perhaps the decision makers don’t really believe their own security risk talk either. They do the things and say the words they think soothes our nerves.
Leftie – I discount new arrivals because so many drop by the wayside in the intensively competitive Pollbludger arena.
I saw Entropy as a fly by nighter,a summer dilettante – yet here he is in March.
Bodily functions fine and always have been Leftie.
You run an entertaining line and I enjoy most of your posts, no need to wander off in that direction.
I’ll leave it at that, hopefully you will too.
as you’d say Lars ‘True dat’
I think Entropy is very much the Tabula rasa- but with massive potential and long term returns if mentored in the right direction. I actually like the kid now and applaud his pb resilience and continued tenure. You should seriously consider allowing me to place him under my command in your pretorian guard?!.
all good Beenthere- we will leave it at that 🙂
One should always allow for redemption and foregiveness for the troubled youth of today but we have to weed out the slow learners.
I’ll take that as a yes Lars- You won’t be disappointed!
Starship/Super Heavy launch update: target launch time now 0002 AEDT.
(Launch window is 2300 – 0050 AEDT.)
You guys are real role models. I can feel the love in the room.
Rewi,
As Lars, myself and the last stasi chief of the former GDR declared in 1989-
“I love all people”
Now 0010 AEDT… Apparently they are clearing boats out of the “keep out” area.
Leftie, great to see you adopting the when they go low I go high approach. Well done!
Lars, I’m glad someone can understand what leftie is going on about.
Really heartbroken tonight to read that what I feared was the case yesterday has come true. There was a fatality in the Ballarat Mine disaster from yesterday, and one survivor in critical condition, who I hope will make a full recovery.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/a-siren-blares-emergency-emergency-then-eerie-silence-20240314-p5fcgf.html
All I feel I can say right now is that I feel utmost gratitude to the emergency services that helped as quickly as they did.
Lars you know I’ve pushed that nugget of yours on pb as far as I can!.
Nath I hope the both of us can act as cordial lieutenants for LVT?. I hold no grudge with you. Entropy will be a fine recruit
Now 0025 AEDT… Starting to run out of time in the launch window.
Propellant loading has commenced…
leftieBrawler says:
Thursday, March 14, 2024 at 11:24 pm
Lars you know I’ve pushed that nugget of yours on pb as far as I can!.
Nath I hope the both of us can act as cordial lieutenants for LVT?. I hold no grudge with you. Entropy will be a fine recruit
______________
leftie you’ve mistaken me for someone who would be subordinate to someone else.
Pueo
watching in thermal is really good.
Newspoll shows libs ahead in qld.The Australian.
Not much of a honeymoon!
Tonight’s offering from the Institute for Unpopular Ideas is…
Decibel limits for motor vehicles.
At full rev, cars and motor bikes to be no louder than a hybrid Toyota Corolla.
Reduce noise pollution and limit dickheadedness.
Undermine hoons and bikies.
Better night’s sleep for all.
This photo shows the comparative size of tonight’s Starship launch rocket vs an Apollo program Saturn V and Space Shuttle.
Queensland State Newspoll,
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3
LNP 54-46 ALP
Primary Votes:
LNP: 42
ALP: 30
GRN: 13
ON: 8
OTH: 7
Yeah, looking pretty bad for Labor, as expected.
I thought there was a recent qld poll that showed labor doing ok?Thanks for that.
Here we go…
That was worth the wait! A much more convincing demonstration that the previous two tests.
The booster worked well, only coming at stuck at the very end when it got a bit wobbly and failed to relight the Raptor engines for the landing burn. I saw some “anomalies” prior to the stage separation which I’d like to see again in slow motion etc. – but it didn’t affect the overall booster performance.
Starship seemed to be working well too; hopefully the coverage will continue until reentry in about 15 minutes time.
What do I need to do in order to be paid off with a peace deal in this country?
Well. Fuck.
Still six months to go, but I have to say that it’s starting to look pretty grim.
Starship appeared to be tumbling at reentry; the video feed via Starlink continued longer than I would have expected with great views of plasma building up on the fins. The fins were moving to try and correct the tumble, but unsuccessfully before contact was lost.
The other milestones were opening and closing the cargo door, and transferring the cryogenic propellants in space. Both were “completed”, but successfully?
Still, it was their first reentry attempt. They’ll have to rethink the control system – it should be in a stable orientation before hitting the atmosphere.
Over and out.
In relation to QLD, Steven Miles was always a bad choice to succeed Anastasia – and the perception will always be that the union bosses promoted a bloke who frankly isn’t up to the job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8htMpR7mnaM
NYT looks to have totally lost the plot with its “Both sides ism “
NY DA seeks delay to allow Trump to view NEW evidence against him.. ie strengthening the case …
& yet NYT says this..
A delay in the Manhattan case would most likely delight the former president, whose central strategy for fighting all of his legal entanglements is to stall as much as possible.
Ps the delay is huge massive… 2 weeks
Some news on Scott Morrison’s farewell event.
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-s-farewell-shire-dinner-canned-amid-lack-of-rsvps-20240314-p5fcjn.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Queensland’s Liberal National Party leader David Crisafulli is on track to deliver the first change in government in the state for almost a decade and breach the “red wall” of Labor dominance across mainland Australia, the latest Newspoll finds. The LNP is in front 54/46.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3?amp=
Mike Foley and Nick Toscano tell us how onerous environmental regulations are delaying Australia’s ambitious renewable rollout and threatening the federal government’s climate commitments, with just two wind farms approved in the past 15 months under flagship green protection laws. There are competing agendas,
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-competing-agendas-that-threaten-to-derail-australia-s-renewable-rollout-20240314-p5fcc7.html
Phil Coorey looks at Dutton’s nuclear musings and how some insiders are saying he and Ted O’Brien have been “lured onto the rocks” by Sky After Dark.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-push-could-take-on-political-life-of-its-own-20240313-p5fbzl
Michelle Grattan writes, “Like Peter Dutton, John Gorton once had a nuclear plan. It didn’t end well”. She tells us that the nuclear pitch will come under scrutiny when in May the CSIRO releases its GenCost report, titled Annual insights into the cost of future electricity generation in Australia. The result of its examination of nuclear could be a serious blow for Dutton. If so, seen in historical terms, that would be a win for McMahon economics over Gortonian aspiration.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-like-peter-dutton-john-gorton-once-had-a-nuclear-plan-it-didnt-end-well-225794
Michelle Pini writes about Peter Dutton’s recycled nuclear contamination. She says that in recent days, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has been running free all over the countryside spruiking nuclear energy. Who cares? We hear you say. Well, apparently, every mainstream media platform, since they are not only publicising his outright lies, but in many cases, promoting them as credible policy.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/peter-duttons-recycled-nuclear-contamination,18419
No billionaire should be free to sink Titanic money into politics, declares David Crowe, He says Clive Palmer is easy to dismiss because he gained such a paltry result from the $117 million he poured into his United Australia Party before the last election, buying him a solitary seat in the Senate. But his huge spending, and the sheer scale of his advertising blitz, set a template for any rich-lister who wants to sway an election result.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-billionaire-should-be-free-to-sink-titanic-money-into-politics-20240313-p5fc8a.html
Scott Morrison’s was promised a huge public farewell in his beloved Sutherland Shire. But RSVPs were more a trickle than a deluge, says the SMH which tells us the event has been postponed – but with no rescheduled date. Mr Popularity!
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/scott-morrison-s-farewell-shire-dinner-canned-amid-lack-of-rsvps-20240314-p5fcjn.html
Talk of the Liberal Party having a ‘women problem’ isn’t new, but the preselection of men in safe seats, losing efforts in marginal byelections, and a failure “to have a meaningful conversation” on gender has contributed to a 10-year low in representation for the party, writes Parker McKenzie who says the party is no closer to solving said problem.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/03/14/liberal-women
The AFR’s Julie Hare reports that Education Minister Jason Clare has threatened to withdraw $4.6 million in federal funding from Cranbrook School if an investigation finds “evidence of a pattern of immoral or unethical behaviour”.
https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/clare-threatens-to-take-funding-away-from-cranbrook-20240314-p5fcir
While anger is coming from both sides of the Coalition, a handful of Liberals MPs appear to be enticed by the greener pastures of National Party electorates and have begun openly discussing defecting to the other side, according to half a dozen Coalition sources. Annika Smethurst tells us a bit about what is happening.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/pesutto-on-shaky-ground-as-mps-threaten-to-defect-to-nationals-20240314-p5fciu.html
For years methane was largely ignored in the climate change debate, but now rogue methane emissions are being hunted out with increasingly high-tech tools, explains Nick O’Malley who tells us that orbiting the earth at 580 kilometres above ground 15 times a day, MethaneSAT is using spectrometers to study the gas being emitted from industrial facilities and landfills, coalmines and feedlots with a higher resolution than ever before attempted.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/environmental-group-s-spy-satellite-to-sniff-out-fugitive-emissions-20240313-p5fcc6.html
According to Bloomberg, global greenhouse pollution hit a new record and increased 1.1 per cent last year, the International Energy Agency reported last week. That was almost entirely a China story. Had the country held its carbon budget steady — or reduced it, in the manner of fellow high-income countries whose pollution is now at a 50-year low — then the world’s climate footprint would have shrunk by about 155 million metric tonnes, instead of growing by 410 million tonnes.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-china-s-big-dreams-will-wipe-out-the-world-s-climate-gains-20240307-p5faqq.html
Electric vehicles are “no longer a novelty” and their uptake in Australia is booming, with the industry recording a 120% rise in sales over the past year, according to a new report on the industry. There are now more than 180,000 EVs on Australian roads, with 98,436 of those bought last year, the Australian Electric Vehicle Industry Recap 2023 found. The Electric Vehicle Council and University of Sydney report, released today, also showed that charging infrastructure locations increased by 75% on the previous year, with 812 charging stations now in place across Australia.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/15/australian-ev-electric-vehicle-sales-data-rise-tesla
Pharmacies have negotiated an extra $3 billion from Labor in a peace deal struck after almost a year of protest over the government’s 60-day medicine script scheme. Natassia Chrysanthos reports that yesterday the Pharmacy Guild of Australia said that it had reached a historic deal with the government that would invest billions back into community pharmacies under an expedited agreement over five years – effectively $600 million more a year – that will begin in July.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-strikes-3-billion-peace-deal-with-pharmacies-after-60-day-script-furore-20240314-p5fccg.html
The federal government received 87 applications to open new pharmacies in the months after the announcement of 60-day prescriptions– 50% more than were received in the same period the year prior. Melissa Davey writes that the increase occurred despite warnings from lobby group the Pharmacy Guild, and from the federal opposition, that the dispensing changes may lead to pharmacy staff cuts, fee increases for services and hundreds of pharmacy closures.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/15/more-pharmacies-open-across-ausrtralia-despite-guilds-dire-forecasts-on-60-day-prescriptions
John Howard’s department rolled plans by the Defence Department in late 2003 to slash Australia’s troop numbers in Iraq and deploy some of them to help train a new Afghan army, previously secret cabinet documents reveal. Warning that a cut in Australia’s forces in Iraq might attract criticism from the United States and undermine the nation’s most important military alliance, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet scotched Defence’s plan to reduce troop numbers in Iraq from 840 to 600 by January 2004. Shane Wright and Matthew Knott delve into the previously missing Iraq war cabinet papers for us.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/staying-the-course-howard-rolled-defence-plan-to-cut-iraq-presence-20240313-p5fc65.html
Peter Dutton and David Littleproud have backed further investment in youth camps as an alternative to detention to tackle juvenile crime. The Coalition outlined on Thursday a private members’ bill to be introduced in parliament next week under which young offenders would face jail time of up to two years if they posted videos of gang violence on Snapchat or TikTok. Laura Norder out for another run!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-backs-sending-young-offenders-to-outback-camps-20240314-p5fcc2.html
It’s Snowy 2.0’s seventh birthday. “Who but Malcolm Turnbull is celebrating?”, asks energy expert, Ted Woodley.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-snowy-2-0-s-seventh-birthday-who-but-malcolm-turnbull-is-celebrating-20240214-p5f4v0.html
Some Coles workers say an offer from the supermarket giant of in-store gift cards if they vote to accept a new enterprise agreement is “insulting”, and the agreement doesn’t give them a meaningful pay rise despite the company’s increased profits. One employee said she felt “disrespected” by the offer, which comes at a time when some staff say they are skipping meals and shopping at other supermarkets because they can’t afford food from their own workplace.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/15/coles-pay-offer-labelled-insulting-as-staff-say-they-cant-afford-to-shop-at-own-workplace
As an inquiry into the market power of big supermarkets captures Australia’s attention, plant growers say retail behemoth Bunnings should also be in the spotlight. The Senate committee examining the supermarkets has heard from farmers who say the big chains refuse to pay enough for produce to meet rising production costs, leaving many farms struggling to stay afloat.
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/03/14/bunnings-greenlife-pricing-monopoly
The prosecution over the murder of gangland lawyer Joseph “Pino” Acquaro is in doubt after police refused to divulge the identity of an informer involved in the case. Chris Vedelago reports that Victoria Police has gone to the High Court of Australia in a bid to stop the identity of its supergrass from being revealed in the trial of accused killer Vincenzo Crupi.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gangland-lawyer-murder-case-could-collapse-over-supergrass-dispute-20240314-p5fcbb.html
Adelaide Oval is poised to return to the blockbuster stage and host December Test cricket matches, including “Christmas’’ Tests, for the next seven years. After this season being shunted to a January time slot in a lacklustre fixture against the West Indies – a match that lasted just over two days – the SA Cricket Association is understood to have sealed a long-term deal with Cricket Australia to put Adelaide Oval at the forefront of international cricket again.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/its-a-sevenyear-itch-for-adelaide-oval-as-ground-gets-green-light-to-host-premium-december-tests/news-story/0c8ed49b7b634b2c3dc45456172bd696
This is the Tory party now: so devoid of values and leadership it can’t respond to blatantly racist remarks, opines Martin Kettle.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/14/tory-party-racist-rishi-sunak-frank-hester
The US House of Representatives is unanimous: TikTok should be banned unless it frees itself from China’s control. But the voting power of American TikTok users might get in the way, posits Bruce Wolpe.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-declares-war-on-china-and-175-million-americans-with-tiktok-ban-20240314-p5fcbu.html
Yesterday, the US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for new elections in Israel, harshly criticising Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace. Democrat Schumer, a close ally of President Joe Biden and the highest-ranking Jewish elected official, told the Senate that Netanyahu’s government “no longer fits the needs of Israel” five months into a war that began with attacks on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7.
https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/top-us-democrat-calls-for-new-elections-in-israel-20240315-p5fcml
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Matt Golding
Simon Letch
Jim Pavlidis
Andrew Dyson
Fiona Katauskas
Glen Le Lievre with a gif
https://twitter.com/i/status/1768060166837289239
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Ven @ #334 Thursday, March 14th, 2024 – 9:48 pm
Because it was so nice to shop there when he was around, and now he isn’t.
Phil Coorey looks at Dutton’s nuclear musings and how some insiders are saying he and Ted O’Brien have been “lured onto the rocks” by Sky After Dark.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-push-could-take-on-political-life-of-its-own-20240313-p5fbzl
… Ziggy Switkowski, Gina Reinhardt and John Howard too, I bet.
To be mischievous, Labor should ask the Liberals if they’re planning a Nuclear Reactor on the Georges River in NSW? Where all the Liberal seats are. 😉
Annika Smethurst, per BK:
“… a handful of Liberals MPs appear to be enticed by the greener pastures of National Party electorates and have begun openly discussing defecting to the other side …”
In the fine tradition of Don ‘Shady’ Lane and Brian Austin, whose post-election defection gave Joh’s Nationals government in their own right, and relegated the Liberals to the crossbenches.
Those two did however end up in jail. Justice of sorts.
C@t: “… Labor should ask the Liberals if they’re planning a Nuclear Reactor on the Georges River in NSW? Where all the Liberal seats are.”
Surely Dutton will want to bag one for his own electorate?
Plenty of water in Lake Samsonvale. Lapping at his door … 😉
Oliver what would Keith have done ?
Queensland’s Liberal National Party leader David Crisafulli is on track to deliver the first change in government in the state for almost a decade and breach the “red wall” of Labor dominance across mainland Australia, the latest Newspoll finds.
The poll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows the LNP vote surging eight points clear of Labor, 54 to 46 per cent after preferences. This would translate to a convincing defeat – and the loss of 18 seats – for new Premier Steven Miles if the 7.2 per cent swing against Labor were uniform across the state at the October 26 general election.
Mr Crisafulli’s opposition must win a net 13 seats to secure a majority in the 93-electorate parliament and defeat a third-term Labor outfit that came to power in 2015 under Annastacia Palaszczuk.
The LNP has lifted its primary vote by six points on the 2020 poll result to 42 per cent, while support for Labor plummeted almost 10 points in the same period, down to 30 per cent primary. Party strategists had banked on a bounce after Ms Palaszczuk quit as premier in December, following months of internal pressure for her to go to allow the third-term government to “rebrand” ahead of the state election.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-queenslands-liberal-national-party-in-box-seat-for-majority-government/news-story/aac713de8fa9f0e67201bc0c64eae6e3?amp
Lars, he would have made the Wright call. 🙂
The Oz: “This would translate to a convincing defeat – and the loss of 18 seats – for new Premier Steven Miles if the 7.2 per cent swing against Labor were uniform across the state …”
“… if …”
As usual, it was all crocodile tears and over-hyped hysteria.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/15/more-pharmacies-open-across-ausrtralia-despite-guilds-dire-forecasts-on-60-day-prescriptions
Confessionssays:
Friday, March 15, 2024 at 7:48 am
As usual, it was all crocodile tears and over-hyped hysteria.
_____________________
It was enough to make Butler cave.
You can now add him to the list of useless Ministers.
Given how bad the polling is for Labor in QLD, surely it’d be a bad idea to turf out either Graham Perrett or Shayne Neumann from their federal seats in the name of “affirmative action” or a certain number of seats being set aside for Labor women?
Federal Labor has few enough seats in Qld as it is currently, they’re only a majority government really because of WA last time(the McGowan factor) and the underperformance of the Liberals in Victoria.