Full displays of results:
Brisbane City Council wards election
11.42pm. My system has the Greens ahead in Paddington now, but slightly behind in Walter Taylor.
10.50pm. The ABC computer has different ideas from mine about a couple of things, notably Paddington, which it’s (again) calling for the Greens while mine has the LNP with its nose in front. This points to the difficulty of projection off an election that was held at the height of COVID, which dramatically changed how people voted. The Greens have a solid lead on the TCP count so far, but this is well behind the count for the primary vote.
10.08pm. One bright note for Labor is that they seem to have come to life in LNP-held Calamvale, which is now rated a likely Labor gain by both me and the ABC. That could see them break even after the loss of Wynnum-Manly, giving them the weak bragging right of not having done worse than last time. The ABC has retracted its call of Paddington as a Greens gain from the LNP — it and Walter Taylor both look very close.
9.54pm. I also note the ABC isn’t calling Ipswich West for the LNP — it’s projecting 52.6% TCP for the LNP whereas I have 53.2%. Mysteries abound — the TCP results on the ECQ site lag far behind the media feed, and actually have Labor ahead (from 6501 votes compared with 14,375 on the feed).
9.52pm. Actually, that’s not the reason my system is being more conservative about Walter Taylor than the ABC’s. I note that every ward result on the ABC says “0 of x centres reporting a preference count”, but preference counts have assuredly been reported. I’m not sure if this is purely a cosmetic issue or if the ABC is working entirely off preference estimates.
9.38pm. So Labor look like they are down from five BCC wards to four, having lost Wynnum-Manly to the LNP. The Greens are in the hunt in LNP-held Paddington and Walter Taylor, which both look very close, to add to their existing The Gabba. The ABC is calling Paddington for the Greens, so I suspect there is an issue here of my preference estimate selling them short — that will be corrected when a few more TCP results are through. However, their second tier hopes of Central, Coorparoo and Enoggera don’t look like coming through for them, so they will not emerge as the second strongest party.
9.35pm. I’ve devoted the last half hour to bug-hunting, at least partly because my read of a Labor disaster in the BCC ward of Wynnum-Manly didn’t seem to gel with the ABC — but now it does. That’s not to say there weren’t bugs though, one of which was stopping the two-candidate preferred tables from populating on the council wards results pages. That has now been fixed.
9.18pm. It’s been noted by preference estimates, which get used before two-candidate preferred numbers report, have been selling the Greens short in seats where they are challenging the LNP. I now have them ahead in Paddington, and a correction should soon come through in their favour in Walter Taylor.
8.41pm. A strong showing by the Greens in Labor-held Moorooka ward, where they look like taking second place from the LNP, but Labor still on track to retain it.
8.38pm. As well as Wynnum-Manly, I’m now projecting the LNP ahead in the Labor-held BCC ward of Morningside, suggesting they could be reduced to three seats. That at least raises the possibility of them being outperformed by the Greens, although it’s far from clear at this stage if they will add anything to their existing solitary seat of The Gabba (which is yet to record any figures) — there are four possibilities, but they’re not actually ahead in any of them.
8.34pm. Paddington still looks like a very close race between the LNP and the Greens with three booths in.
8.30pm. My system is now calling Ipswich West for the LNP. The projected swing in Inala is even bigger, but so is Labor’s buffer there.
8.21pm. My system is now calling six wards for the LNP, one of which is Enoggera.
8.19pm. Early figures suggest Labor are in big danger of losing Wynnum-Manly to the LNP, one of only five BCC wards they held going into the election.
8.18pm. The LNP looks like retaining Enoggera regardless of who comes second out of Labor and the Greens — my system is now favouring the latter. This was one of five LNP-held wards the Greens had identified as possible gains. Of their two presumed strongest chances, Paddington looks lineball and there is nothing in yet from Walter Taylor. Too early to say about their other second tier prospects of Coorparoo and Central.
8.13pm. While Adrian Schrinner is headed for re-election as Lord Mayor, he’s faded on my projection as the count has progressed, with a slight booth-matched swing away from him now recorded on the primary vote.
8.10pm. The good news for Labor is that my system is calling Inala for them. The bad news is that the swing is similar to the one that’s putting it on the cusp of calling Ipswich West for the LNP.
8.08pm. Early indications also point to a close LNP-Greens race in Paddington, where the Greens fancied their chances.
8.06pm. The first booth from the BCC Enoggera ward has the Greens second, but my projection has them behind Labor in a fairly close race for second. The LNP vote looks high enough for them to hold either way, but early days yet.
8.04pm. The Brisbane City booth gives the Greens an encouraging first result in the BCC’s Coorparoo ward — only 168 votes, but it points to a chance they will take it from the LNP, consistent with the party’s own expectations.
8.02pm. A booth in at last from Inala, and there too there is a huge swing to the LNP of over 20% according to my projection, with Labor’s primary vote collapsing 32.5% to 37.8%. No doubt Annastacia Palaszczuk had a big personal vote here, but still. Independent Linh Nyugen on double figures, presumably taking a bit from Labor. Bad as all this is for Labor, it doesn’t suggest they are in serious danger of losing.
8.00pm. It’s been noted that the informal vote in Ipswich West is out from 4.0% to 8.6%, which no doubt has a lot to do with an optional preferential voting council election being held on the same day as a compulsory preferential voting state by-election. Presumably this isn’t doing Labor any favours.
7.58pm. An eleventh booth in Ipswich West was obviously not good for Labor, pushing my projection of the LNP lead out from (from memory) 1.9% to 2.5% and increasing their win probability to 95%.
7.52pm. Substantial progress now in the mayoralty count, confirming what was noted before — Adrian Schrinner holding steady on his 2020 vote, and movement from Labor to the Greens but not enough to get the latter’s candidate, Jonathan Sriranganathan, to second.
7.50pm. The swing in Ipswich West continues to be big enough to make the LNP firm favourites when quite getting them to where my system would call it. The Brisbane council ward of Tennyson has been called for independent incumbent Nicole Johnston, who looks to be doing it easily.
7.43pm. Note that my mayoralty entry page does things like say certain wards have been “retained” by the LNP, which simply means Schrinner is projected to win there again. The system is geared to seat-style contests and I didn’t have time to finesse everything.
7.42pm. The lack of any action from Inala had me checking the ABC to make sure it wasn’t a fault in my system, but no, still no numbers there yet.
7.40pm. Some big lord mayoralty numbers in now, and the situation has settled quite considerably — it now looks like a status quo result with a bit of a swing from Labor to the Greens, rather than historic disaster Labor seemed to be suffering at first. Presumably this will start flowing through to the council ward results shortly.
7.37pm. Labor has perked up a little on my Ipswich West win probability with the reporting of a third two-candidate result, which presumably improved their projected preference flow.
7.33pm. On Brisbane Council, my system is now calling Bracken Ridge and LNP retain, which a huge swing blowing out what was hitherto a fairly tight margin.
7.31pm. My system has actually crossed the threshold where it’s not using my preference estimates in Ipswich West. So the 10% Labor win probability should probably be taken seriously at this point.
7.30pm. Eight booths in now on the primary vote — fast count there, slow one in Inala. Perhaps they’re prioritising by-election and council votes differently. In any case, the new Ipswich West results do not change what was written in the previous update.
7.28pm. Booth number five from Ipswich West is also less bad for Labor, being comparable to the last two. But I may have been wrong to say these booths were coming in below what the LNP needed to win the seat — I was just looking at the Labor primary vote (a lot on my plate at present). The LNP primary vote swing across the board is approaching 20%, which makes them look very dangerous. Legalise Cannabis are soaking up votes from the absent Greens and a lot depends on their preferences. My current projection assumes they will go 60-40 to Labor, but if they’re loaded with Greens voters they may get a stronger flow than that. Once there are enough two-candidate preferred votes in, my projection will go off the swing on preferences rather than my estimates.
7.20pm. From four wards, I’m recording LNP two-party swings of 4.2% to 15.0% for the lord mayoralty. It’s a similar story for the council, albeit that these are the same booths. So Labor would seem in big danger at this early stage of going backwards.
7.17pm. Two further booths from Ipswich West are better for Labor — seemingly a tad below what would cost them the seat. The two booths that came in first were well above that, so Labor will have to be hoping both were outliers. Still nothing from Inala.
7.16pm. My system is calling McDowall ward for the LNP and sees big LNP swings everywhere that a swing can be determined.
7.10pm. I’ve turned off some features that were misfiring on the mayoralty landing page. However, the primary vote numbers are suggesting a very good night for the LNP and not just in Ipswich West.
6.53pm. Remarkable first results from Ipswich West had me checking the ABC to see if there was something amiss in my system, but it concurs the LNP swing is blowing the hinges off. Still early days, but the fact that the ALP has been trounced in two booths will be giving them palpitations.
6.47pm. I’m hoping the screwiness on the lord mayoralty landing page at present will resolve when there are some numbers in that aren’t mobile booths.
6.37pm. To elaborate on that point, the swing results I have for the mobile booths are meaningless — in most cases there were zero mobile results last time, so I think I just gave them a fraction of a vote from the central pre-polling booth so the system would have something to work off. Everywhere else, the swing figures will be based on booth-to-booth comparison.
6.35pm. Two mobile booths in for the lord mayoralty, with the same issues noted in the previous update. The chart and dial on my lord mayoralty landing page won’t show anything until two-candidate preferred results are reported. Ordinarily I run projections based on the primary vote, but didn’t have time to do that in this case. A little perversely, I have projections for the mayoral results at ward level, but not overall. As always, another day to do all this would have been handy.
6.23pm. A mobile polling booth has reported 102 council ward votes in Bracken Ridge. Caution would be required here at the best of times, but especially on this occasion where mobile polling was just about non-existent last time because of COVID, making any swing figure meaningless.
6.20pm. One of the things I didn’t have time to do was code around a recurring issue where sometimes empty XML files get uploaded to my server, so I suspect there will be the odd occasion where you find the page hasn’t been filled out with data. If so, you should find it resolves after a minute or two.
6pm. Polls have closed for Queensland local government elections and Inala and Ipswich West state by-elections. The links above will take you to the Poll Bludger’s own live results pages, which I’m reasonably confident will work well in the case of the by-elections, but merely hopeful in the case of the Brisbane Lord Mayor and council elctions, which were a pretty huge undertaking and for which I was still squashing bugs up to the last, which is usually not a good sign. In any case, the first results should presumably be in in around half an hour or so.
Thanks for all your work tonight, William.
Thank you for your excellent work William!
Tonight will be an interesting one to watch, when I voted today in Paddington ward things felt very good for the Greens. I think Schrinner will remain mayor but with a reduced majority, from 19/26 wards to 14 or so. Slim chance LNP drop to 12 or 11 and lose majority if all the stars align for the greens and labor, but very unlikely.
Thanks WB too, for your work with this as well. Thought I would jump back on the blog tonight given my home town is having an election.
nadia88says:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 7:20 pm
Lars – Congrats on your pick for Dunkley. Credit where credit is due, you know your stuff. List for the posters on Dunkley is below, with the final tally being ALP 52.74%.
Link: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29778-210.htm
Gosh!
Would be interested in your comments on the Brisbane City Council / State by elections blog tonight, and especially omens for the QLD state election in October. Gut feeling is the LNP will have a “stonking win” in the City Council election & the Greens will overtake the ALP.
List for Dunkley is below.
====================================================================
nadia88says:
Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 5:47 pm
PB Tally Board, the TAB has settled:
* FUBAR 52-48 ALP
* MIDDLE AGED BALDING WHITE MAN 52-48 ALP
* DAMO 51-49 ALP
* VEN – Libs.
* BOERWAR – Cats whisker to the ALP 50.01
* SCOTT – 58-42 ALP
* Dr.D 55-45 ALP
* PIED PIPER – ALP
* Nadia88 51.5 ALP
* ASHA 52 ALP
* GRANT EX LIBRIS 50.5 ALP
* KRUSCICA 54 ALP
* MEHER BABA 50-50 ALP JUST
* MOSTLY INTERESTED 50-50, WITH UP TO 600 VOTES DECIDING EITHER WAY
* NATH 54 ALP
* TERMINATOR 50.5 ALP
* SOC 51 ALP
* DANDY MURRAY 51.75 ALP
* MELBMAMMOTH 50-50 (WITH MARGIN OF 500 DECIDING EITHER WAY)
* LARS VON TRIER 52.75 ALP
* DEM-SNAG LIBS 52
* OUT OF SORTS 50.5 LIBS {Gosh, second post today for the Libs. Late swing, TAB is still settling}
* MUNDO 53 LIBS
* REWI 53 ALP
* BK 50.9 ALP {CATS WHISKER PLUS }
* DOGS BRINCH 50-50 {LABOR BY UNDER 300}
* TEAM KAT 51 (GATHER IT’S ALP, NOT SURE BY YOUR POST AT 10.33)
* GRANNY ANNY – ALP
* GOLL – no pick ,but election should be over by about 8PM
* REX 53 ALP
* FREDNK ALP 57% {swing to the ALP like Scott above}
* ALPHA ZERO ALP 52
* WAT TYLER 51.9 ALP
* AJM – ALP
Thanks William
Antony Green says first mobile polling booth counts coming in in Tennyson but nothing meaninful yet.
ABC reporting that there were lines of up to an hour at some booths today, certainly not what I experienced at Mansfield.
My line in Paddington was 40mins at 1pm! No line at all later at 5
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/live/brisbane – live broadcast but not much information yet.
Need about 5% counted to develop a trend. Very early at the moment.
Thanks, Fargo61 – I wasn’t aware anyone else was covering it until you posted.
Anyone know if the ABC is going to be doing any televised coverage?
Pretty sure the ABC isn’t covering it on ABC News 24 – seems to be just ABC Radio, Antony on the website and here.
I ran a sausage sizzle at a booth in Moorooka today and the queue was absolutely fecking ridiculously long all day. I was there from 730 to 1140 and 1600 to 1730. I reckon people might still be voting.
ECQ have ballsed it up. Must do better at the state election.
Asha, there is supposed to be video coverage on ABC Facebook Brisbane.
Oh Nadia, did I say 51.75? I’m sure I meant 52.75. Typo for sure 😉
Antony Green says first Ipswich West booth shows 20% + for LNP, -20% for ALP – small rural booth.
Oof early Ipswich West results look rough!
Removed, misread it.
Ouch.
According to ABC, voters gave up after long lines and decided to ‘cop the fine’.
First proper mayor results in from Moorooka, no change to LNP vote but a 10% swing from Lab to Grn
Ashasays:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Anyone know if the ABC is going to be doing any televised coverage?
———————–
No Asha. Just the radio coverage as provided by Fargo. Nothing on ABC or Sky.
Thankfully we’ve got WB on the job
Figures not looking good for Labor in Ipswich West.
”
Fargo61says:
Saturday, March 16, 2024 at 7:56 pm
Antony Green says first Ipswich West booth shows 20% + for LNP, -20% for ALP – small rural booth.
”
Asha
Should I be worried. William Bowe thinks so.
The ABC has been told some polling booths also ran out of ballot papers.
0.3% counted in BCC and LNP already has 1 seat as per ABC
Legalise Cannabis currently outpolling One Nation in Ipswich West.
No Greens in Ipswich West, so Leg Cannabis is picking up extra votes from somewhere.
That British sounding commentator (not Antony) on the ABC feed sounds a bit smashed to me.
Could be an interesting night.
Radio Link is here (via Fargo61 earlier)
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/live/brisbane
Ipswich West now +17.8% LNP, -14.5 ALP primary votes, 3365 counted.
Ipswich West beginning to look marginally less shit for Labor, but… Jesus.
Can someone who knows Brisbane geography better than me explain where those four wards that William’s talking about are in metro Brisbane?
Ven – no Greens candidate.
Their vote will mainly go to L.Cannabis, but the Cannabis party is picking up extra votes from somewhere else.
I think Labor has lost this seat. Seems to be a straight 14% swap between ALP to LNP.
Awaiting Inala results – nothing posted as yet.
ABC reporting that AWU were handing out bogus Legalise Cannabis how to vote cards in Ipswich West.
Looking pretty grim for the ALP in the council and mayoral races too, bleeding votes to both the LNP and the Greens. Despite the swing to the Greens in the council races, they’re seeing little to no swing to Jonathan Sri.
While I’m sure Legalise Cannabis appreciates the extra volunteers, surely the effort would have been better off handing out for, you know, the party they actually want to win the election?
Me:
Wait, no, I must have been looking at the wrong thing. He’s currently up 3% on the previous Greens’ mayoral candidate right now.
Ipswich west abc said in oct 2023 -120 applicants for each rental property 3 rd worst in Qld.
Hmmm wonder if that has pissed people off massively??
646 votes counted in Redland mayoral race (no idea where from) and Andrew Laming on only 14.24%.
Asha – there is no way paid up ALP / Union affilifated members would be handing out HTV cards for some looney fringe party when their own party candidate is standing in the election. It would be sin.
Consider it “fake news”, and to be honest I’m a bit surprised the ABC is reporting on it.
Boerwar and C@t will look into it during the week, but I think it will end up being a false & silly story.
Inala on the piss on a sat night?
ABC is already backtracking on the “ALP/AWU members” handing out HTV cards story for the enemy.
Fake news, if ever I heard it.
Well, that’s a relief!
Brisbane Mayor election – Greens catching up to the ALP. ALP 26.05 to Greens 22.
For everyone outside of QLD. There is an election for the BCC for the 26 seats. There is also a seperate election for the Lord Mayor – a city wide vote – similar to the US President, although there is no Electoral College. Hope this makes sense.
Hello Pied Piper. Thought you’d turn up tonight. Newspoll coming up tomorrow night. Big weekend.
Pied Piper:
Almost certainly, yes, though I do wonder why you would be gloating about something like that when your team is both largely to blame for the crisis and has no plan nor desire to ever do anything about it.
Some lefties are going to have a sleepless night tonight…
Informal rate of 8.8% for Ipswich West byelection! We need CPV for every level of government this is ridiculous.
First Paddington results in the form of a 5% mayoral swing to the Greens. Should be a green gain
ALP has just taken the lead on Primaries in Ipswich West. 22% counted.
Interesting.
….
LNP now back in front on Primaries. 26% counted.
This is like the Florida Count at the the 2016 US election.
Holland Park ward a roughy for the Greens? Sitting member Christa is a horror.
Div 12 on the GC sees an old mate standing as an indy doing very well.